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Tuesday 24th of April 2018
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Morning Africa |
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as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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#FAANG divorced: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google have tended to move together in the past, but of late their fortunes have diverged @Schuldensuehner Africa |
#FAANG divorced: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google have
tended to move together in the past, but of late their fortunes have
diverged: Amazon up 33% ytd, Google and Apple have chalked up
single-digit gains, Netflix up whopping 72% but Facebook has fallen
6%.
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- V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River Africa |
*“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at
night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of
river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and
even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise
— dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were
another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much
more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt
the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you
had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was
always there. You felt the land taking you back to what was there a
hundred years ago, to what had been there always.” *
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Britain was in surplus on its day-to-day budget for the first full fiscal year since the early 2000s @business International Trade |
Britain was in surplus on its day-to-day budget for the first full
fiscal year since the early 2000s, a milestone that is almost certain
to revive calls for an end to austerity.
Revenue exceeded spending by 112 million pounds ($156 million) in the
12 months through March, meaning Britain is now borrowing only to
finance capital investment, figures from the Office for National
Statistics showed Tuesday.
Including investment, the deficit narrowed to 42.6 billion pounds, the
least in 11 years and below the 45.2 billion pounds predicted by
budgetary officials last month. In March alone, the shortfall
unexpectedly narrowed to 1.3 billion pounds.
Almost a decade of austerity has seen the deficit fall from 9.9
percent of GDP in the aftermath of the financial crisis to 2.1 percent
last year, but the cuts have left voters weary and taken a heavy toll
on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative government.
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Angola, the best-performing emerging market this year, readies a new Eurobond Africa |
Angola, whose Eurobonds have outperformed those of all its
emerging-market peers this year, is readying a new dollar transaction
to take advantage of higher oil prices and a new program with the
International Monetary Fund.
The OPEC member plans to issue at least $2 billion of debt in
international markets next month, Portuguese news agency Lusa reported
on Sunday, citing Finance Minister Archer Mangueira, who was scheduled
to meet investors in New York on Monday to promote the sale. The
announcement took place days after the IMF pledged to help the
southern African country address economic challenges.
Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Industrial & Commercial
Bank of China Ltd. are managing the meetings and a possible sale of
10-year notes, a person familiar with the matter said on Monday. After
the U.S. meetings, the roadshow will continue in Europe, said the
person, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized
to speak publicly about the matter.
A series of devaluations starting in January under new President Joao
Lourenco, who came to power in September, has brought Angola’s kwanza
closer to its market value and lessened the currency risk for
bondholders. Angola, which relies on oil for more than 90 percent of
its export revenue, needs to bolster its foreign reserves to pay for
imports and international suppliers.
The kwanza has now lost 55 percent of its value against the dollar
since June 2014, when Brent crude began its slide from a peak of $115
a barrel. It’s overtaken Nigeria’s naira as the worst-performing major
oil currency in that period, excluding crisis-ridden Venezuela’s
bolivar.
The yield on Angola’s $1.5 billion 2025 Eurobond climbed 10 basis
points to 7.07 percent by 5:30 p.m. in London, still 179 basis points
lower than a year ago. Angolan securities have returned 2 percent in
2018, the most in the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD
Sovereign Bond Index, which includes more than 70 countries.
“There have been very important changes to do with the transfer of
leadership,” Dehn said. “Fundamentally, it’s been healthy. The
improvement’s been reflected in the movement of the bonds.”
Conclusions
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Hazards ahead if African eurobond rally comes to a sudden, nasty end @BDliveSA @RonakGopaldas Africa |
It was a good year for African financial markets in 2017. On the whole
a feelgood factor returned to the continent after more than two years
of subpar performance, with average yields for sub-Saharan African
eurobonds dropping from lows of 8.13% in 2015 to 5.87% at the end of
2017. So far in 2018 currency and foreign currency bonds have
continued to perform well, and new eurobond issuances have been
oversubscribed and are attractively priced.
Yet despite these improved performances, it is uncertain now whether
this rosy outlook will continue or come to a sudden end.
On observing these dynamics closely, three major disconnects stand
out. First, financial markets rallied despite regressive domestic
political developments in many countries. Second, the performance of
real economies (negative) and those of their financial markets
(positive). Third, a major gap has emerged between the old normal and
new normal, specifically around what constitutes "unpalatable" risk.
Intrigued? Let me explain.
African eurobond and currency markets enjoyed a buoyant 2017 despite
unsavoury political developments on many fronts. For example, despite
a de facto state of emergency and the detention of an opposition
leader on treason charges in Zambia, markets bubbled along, largely
ignoring these issues.
Similarly, deaths, postponements and annulments during Kenya’s
election saga failed to generate any real sell-off in the market,
despite significant and prolonged uncertainty.
This deterioration in sovereign ratings reflects the fact that most
commodity-dependent economies now have significantly weaker buffers
and policy toolkits at their disposal to protect their economies
relative to previous shocks And in Ivory Coast, at least eight
mutinies in 2017 elicited nothing more than a short-term spike in its
sovereign debt.
Similarly, in SA, if one compares the violent currency sell-off and
spike in foreign currency bond yields when Nhlanhla Nene was fired
with that of Pravin Gordhan’s dismissal, one would be forgiven for
thinking that markets had gone deaf. Despite political risk being
elevated in all these jurisdictions on account of these events,
investors simply shrugged off these concerns as noise rather than as a
clear deterioration in governance.
Second, the performance of financial markets was disconnected from the
performance of real economies. Paradoxically, despite credit quality
in Africa deteriorating to the extent that there are no longer any
investment-grade sovereign issuers in Africa, in an August 2017
article Bloomberg observed that African eurobonds were trading at
their lowest levels in two years.
This deterioration in sovereign ratings reflects the fact that most
commodity-dependent economies now have significantly weaker buffers
and policy toolkits at their disposal to protect their economies
relative to previous shocks.
It also means the cost of capital and financing constraints increased.
Yet, despite riskier profiles, foreign investors were piling into
these assets and sovereigns paid lower rates for new issuances — a
bizarre state of affairs.
While an argument can be put forward to say that this is simply the
new normal and that investors have adjusted to a higher political risk
threshold given the occurrence of wildcard events such as Brexit and
the election of Donald Trump, the reality is that in years gone by
such developments would probably have generated very different
outcomes.
This desensitisation to political risk — perhaps because it is no
longer simply perceived to be an emerging or frontier market
phenomenon, is cited as one core reason why this is the case. Indeed,
the muted reaction of major indices to the threat of nuclear missile
launches in an age of Twitter diplomacy suggests that something
fundamental has shifted.
According to Sean West, the CEO of Eurasia Group’s EGX, the world is
in a global geopolitical recession, which can be interpreted as a net
downwards shift in the entire risk universe. However, another
compelling view put forward as to why this is the case is the fact
that the global economy finds itself in a Goldilocks phase, meaning
that it is neither too hot nor too cold. It can sustain moderate
economic growth and maintain low inflation. In this way it allows for
market-friendly monetary policy.
This benign environment is conducive to risk-taking behaviour.
According to Pavel Mamai, a portfolio manager at Promeritum Investment
Management, it’s not that these assets are without risk, but "it’s all
relative". He says African sovereign eurobonds exhibit typical
emerging market (EM) debt characteristics, "albeit sometimes in a
concentrated form. These often include domestic political risk, low
quality of economic policy making and, as a result, vulnerabilities of
credit fundamentals to external shocks. As these weaknesses are more
pronounced in many African countries versus EM average, African
eurobonds should offer a yield premium over many other EM countries to
be attractive on a relative value basis."
While for now it seems likely that the risk-on party will go on, it is
important to note that the buoyant sub-Saharan African eurobond
performance is being driven by external factors, specifically a global
search for yield, rather than intrinsic ones. Therefore, one should be
wary of a Cinderella effect, whereby the carriage very quickly turns
into a pumpkin when the proverbial clock strikes 12. Countries with
bad politics and bad economics will be in the firing line when the hot
money heads for the exit doors.
In reality, despite significant improvements from 2015 lows, many of
the underlying issues remain masked. And importantly, the balance
sheets of African sovereigns have weakened dramatically over this
period. With this in mind, investors should be wary of complacency
Consequently, the concern is about whether this sense of complacency
will persist in 2018. Recall, it would not be the first time. We have
been here before with both the taper tantrum in 2013 as well as China
growth fears in 2015. Though the consensus is that a sharp reversal is
unlikely (Federal Reserve hiking and China deleveraging are managed
transitions), both headwinds remain in play, which means capital
flight from emerging markets due to a change in sentiment remains a
key risk. Furthermore, with a number of geopolitical issues bubbling
beneath the surface, not to mention wildcard factors, any surprise
could trigger a shock to expectations and a consequent exodus of
capital, resulting in a flight to safety. In such a scenario the
spotlight will shift to domestic issues as investors become more
discriminating with their capital.
In the light of this, two key questions emerge for investors in
Africa. How likely is a reversal and are African policy makers
adequately prepared to deal with the fallout?
According to Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based investment analyst,
"liquidity has so far muted political risk and concerns from some bond
vigilantes are that African governments are dangerously overloaded on
debt. Therefore this could well be the calm before a storm. The
question is what might trigger this pivot. A non-benign interest rate
structure, a sharp deterioration in the US-China trade war or big
ticket blow-up in any African country might all be the catalyst
[Zambia looks a likely candidate].
I think the rally has farther to go, that there will be more
granularity and pricing about African eurobond pricing, which has
become very homogenous and that we are at some point in the future
going to witness a big asymmetric downside move."
In reality, despite significant improvements from 2015 lows, many of
the underlying issues remain masked. And importantly, the balance
sheets of African sovereigns have weakened dramatically over this
period. With this in mind, investors should be wary of complacency.
Though the positivity seems set to continue for now, these three
disconnects and the manner in which they are ultimately resolved will
determine whether the story of African eurobonds ends in a fairytale
or a nightmare.
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African businesses are driving economic integration on the continent faster than policymakers @qzafrica Africa |
The long-held dream of economic integration in Africa is becoming more
of a reality—thanks a crop of companies defying high odds.
Despite the obvious difficulties of being a pan-African business,
economic integration across the continent is “gathering speed,”
according to a new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
African companies, including airlines, financial institutions and
telecoms operators are leading this charge with BCG’s report
identifying 75 companies across 18 countries whose businesses are
leading to further integration.
“On average, the top 30 African companies now have operations in 16
African countries, up from an average of only 8 in 2008,” the report
says. Much of this growth, which outpaces many multinationals
operating on the continent, is attributed to factors including a
superior grasp of data relevant to local markets, on-the-ground
experience and being to navigate informal business environments which
dominate the continent.
Indeed, between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016, average annual African
foreign direct investment—defined as money African companies invested
in African countries—more than doubled from $3.7 billion to $10
billion, the report shows. In the same period, average annual
intra-African exports also grew from $41 billion to $65 billion while
the average number of yearly intra-regional merger and acquisition
deals increased from 238 to 418—more than half of the total number of
deals.
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'Something was wrong, horribly wrong,' @CyrilRamaphosa says of the Zuma era @FinancialTimes @davidpilling Africa |
For the four years of his vice-presidency, Cyril Ramaphosa looked on
with seeming impotence as his boss dragged South Africa closer to
catastrophe. While Mr Ramaphosa stood silently, Jacob Zuma axed
competent ministers and ransacked state institutions in the interests
of his alleged paymasters, the Gupta family.
Little in Mr Ramaphosa’s reticence during that period could have
prepared South Africans for what was to follow. In the three months
since he was elected leader of the African National Congress, he has
unleashed a political blitzkrieg, making a succession of decisions and
deft manoeuvres that have bolstered investor confidence and lifted the
national mood.
Why did he wait so long? “What did Shakespeare say?” he replies in an
interview with the Financial Times in London, before quoting Brutus’s
call to action in Julius Caesar.
Seemingly in his element at the start of what might be described as
the third act of a career that has spanned ANC activist, businessman
and now president of the nation, he adds: “‘There is a tide in the
affairs of men.’ That quotation kept ringing in my head because many
people kept asking: ‘Why are you not acting? Why are you not saying
anything.’ And I kept saying: ‘There’s a time when one needs to act
and, when you do take action, it should be such that you do not
fail.’”
The tipping point, says Mr Ramaphosa, 65, came in March 2017 when Mr
Zuma sacked Pravin Gordhan, a close associate whose history of
activism and technical abilities command huge respect. Mr Gordhan, now
restored to the cabinet to knock sense into the country’s
corruption-riddled public enterprises, was fired after publication of
a report cooked up to discredit him.
“We saw that something was wrong, horribly wrong,” Mr Ramaphosa says
of that period. “When we were hitting rock bottom, we needed to say
something so that we could begin to recover and claw our way back.”
Mr Ramaphosa has proved more patient than Brutus. His wait for the top
job goes back to the mid-1990s when Nelson Mandela expressed his wish,
soon after the end of apartheid, that the gifted lawyer should succeed
him. But the ANC leadership thought otherwise. Mr Ramaphosa, the
party’s chief negotiator with the Nationalist government at the end of
apartheid, was overlooked.
After losing the leadership battle to Thabo Mbeki, in 1996 he retired
to the private sector where he quickly amassed a fortune, benefiting
from shareholdings and board positions bestowed as part of the black
empowerment mechanism he had helped devise.
The country he has taken over is very different from the one that
would have awaited him in 1999 on Mandela’s retirement. Then there was
still a sense of optimism and a willingness by the black majority to
wait for the ANC to right the wrongs of apartheid. Two decades later
and after 10 years of Mr Zuma’s corrosive presidency, patience has run
out.
“That’s the past. We must now look to the future,” says Mr Ramaphosa,
acknowledging that he must both reassure investors that South Africa
is open again for business as well as addressing those unhealed
wounds.
During Mr Zuma’s term, the economy stalled, the rand slid and two
rating agencies marked down the sovereign debt to junk. The once
seemingly unassailable electoral majority of the mighty ANC evaporated
as the party lost control of three big cities, including Johannesburg,
in 2016 municipal elections.
The sense of urgency owes largely to Mr Ramaphosa’s lack of time to
turn sentiment around. In 2019, he must face the electorate as head of
a divided party, one that elected him as its leader in December by the
narrowest of margins. Zuma loyalists remain in positions of power.
David Mabuza, who as premier of Mpumalanga was accused of treating the
province like a personal fiefdom, is deputy president. The ANC’s top
six officials are divided between those seen as “constitutionalists”
in the Ramaphosa mould and those, like Ace Magashule,
secretary-general of the party, who advance a style of politics based
on connections. Few doubt there will be a showdown ahead.
As if to underline the looming battle, Mr Ramaphosa was forced to cut
short his London trip to handle violent unrest triggered by party
infighting in Mafikeng, a northwestern city, over the fate of another
Zuma-allied provincial baron who is accused of massive graft. “People
are going to start feeling betrayed” if such politicians are not
removed — but neither can Mr Ramaphosa make too many enemies in the
Zuma camp, says Ralph Mathekga, a political analyst.
Mr Ramaphosa has moved swiftly to consolidate power. He has made 21
changes to a cabinet of 36, and reappointed people sacked by Mr Zuma.
Asked how he will tackle corruption within the ANC, he lays emphasis
on the courts and a commission of inquiry into the “state capture”
through which Mr Zuma, in collaboration with the Guptas, is alleged to
have compromised the country’s institutions.
“There will be leaders, people within the ANC who will be caught up in
the web of state capture,” Mr Ramaphosa says. “And when they are, they
must be accountable . . . It will ferret a lot of things out.”
Sthembile Mbete, a political analyst, says the president’s strategy is
to leave much of the dirty work to the courts, which are reviewing the
propriety of several of Mr Zuma’s top police and prosecutorial
appointments. That approach would help pre-empt any accusation that
the president is using investigations to rid himself of enemies and
Zuma faithfuls.
“Ramaphosa does not want to be accused of that, especially by Zuma who
is hoping to mobilise his victimhood as a political force,” Ms Mbete
says.
He has two other monumental tasks. First is to get the economy moving
again. His appointment halted the decline in the rand and persuaded
Moody’s, the only big agency not to have downgraded South Africa’s
sovereign debt to junk, to change its outlook to stable. Now he wants
to get investment, currently below 20 per cent of gross domestic
product, flowing again.
The president says he will approach the investment question like a
businessman, “building a book” of at least $100bn in projects, both
domestic and international. He wants firm pledges by the end of the
year. The private sector has told him, “give us more confidence and we
will invest”, he says. “Give us more reason why we should invest in
various sectors of the economy and we will.”
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Kenya Coffee Farmers Going Nuts Yields Record Macadamia Crop Kenyan Economy |
Kenyan farmers used to grow macadamia trees to shade their coffee
bushes. Now they’re making so much from production of the nuts that
they’re abandoning the beans.
The East African nation, known for its prized arabica coffee, is
gaining a reputation for its macadamias with production growing to a
record last year. Expansion in the world’s third-biggest grower of the
crop is being driven by demand from China, according to Nairobi-based
agro-processor Nawiri Agribusiness EPZ Ltd.
Farmgate prices for unshelled nuts have risen to as high as 180
shillings ($1.80) a kilogram (2.2 pounds) this season from about 70
shillings at the start in December, and may climb to 200 shillings,
according to Alfred Busolo, head of Kenya’s state-run Agriculture and
Food Authority. By contrast, many coffee farmers operate at a loss
with their beans earning about $0.55 per kilogram, according to a
report last year by London-based advocacy group Fair Trade.
“Farmers are beginning to discover that this is gold,” said Loise
Maina, one of three founders of Nawiri Agribusiness. “Wherever coffee
is grown, macadamia also grows and farmers are now aware of the
opportunity with macadamia.”
Kenyan coffee production has dwindled after years of mismanagement by
the industry regulator to 38,620 metric tons last year from a peak of
130,000 tons in 1989. Macadamia production increased 5 percent to
41,614 tons last year, after growing more than 20 percent over the
preceding two years, according to the AFA. At current prices, last
year’s macadamia crop was worth 7.49 billion shillings. The coffee
industry earned 15.9 billion shillings last year, according the
Nairobi Coffee Exchange.
Increasing output helped Kenya overtake the U.S. as the third-biggest
producer in 2013, a position it’s held since then. Australia produced
14,100 tons of nut kernels last year, compared with South Africa’s
13,383 tons and Kenya’s 5,795 tons, according to the Reus, Spain-based
International Nut & Dried Fruit Council.
Kakuzi has been producing kernels since 2016, having planted macadamia
trees where it once had coffee. Macadamia sales more than doubled to
371.6 million shillings last year, according to its latest annual
report, making the nuts the company’s second-biggest earner after
avocados.
Smaller rival Sasini, which has been growing coffee since the colonial
era which ended in 1963, is constructing a macadamia-processing
factory that’s scheduled to crush its first nuts this month. “Both
these new lines of business, macadamia and avocado, show a lot of
promise and the respective industries are thriving globally,” Sasini
said in its latest annual report.
Kenya now has 27 licensed macadamia processors, from just five in
2013, AFA’s Busolo said. Other than ensuring there is regulation to
govern the sector, the agency will stay out of the industry, he said.
With coffee, poor management by the state harmed the industry, farmers
say.
“We want the private sector to play a key role, unlike coffee, which
had a lot of government involvement,” Busolo said.
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N.S.E Today |
Brent Crude surpassed $75.00 a barrel as Trump inverts Obama's Oil
Warfare Strategy and is determined to cajole Oil higher to ease his
Son-in-Law Jared Kushner's Middle East Asset Crown Prince MBS into the
role of King.
The Dollar has been rebounding of late across the International FX
markets but simultaneously and somewhat counterintuitively the Kenya
Shilling is at a 33 month high.
The shilling touched 99.95 to the dollar in early trading yesterday,
Reuters data showed, the first time it has risen to that level since
July 8, 2015.
If the Central Bank sits back we could probe as high as 98.50.
Nairobi All Share had retreated -8.089% through this morning since
setting a record closing high of 196.57 on April 5th.
After this sharp slide, it looks like we finally found our footing
again and I expect the Indices to rebound from here.
Banking stocks which had been very frisky in 2018 and had gotten ahead
of a repeal of the Rate Cap Act have now repriced after a price
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Both Kakuzi and Sasini Tea were cited in a Bloomberg Article which was
headlined ''Kenya Coffee Farmers Going Nuts Yields Record Macadamia
Crop'' Kenyan farmers used to grow macadamia trees to shade their
coffee bushes. Now they’re making so much from production of the nuts
that they’re abandoning the beans.
Farmgate prices for unshelled nuts have risen to as high as 180
shillings ($1.80) a kilogram (2.2 pounds) this season from about 70
shillings at the start in December, and may climb to 200 shillings,
according to Alfred Busolo, head of Kenya’s state-run Agriculture and
Food Authority. By contrast, many coffee farmers operate at a loss
with their beans earning about $0.55 per kilogram, according to a
report last year by London-based advocacy group Fair Trade.
Kakuzi has been producing kernels since 2016, having planted macadamia
trees where it once had coffee. Macadamia sales more than doubled to
371.6 million shillings last year, according to its latest annual
report, making the nuts the company’s second-biggest earner after
avocados.
Smaller rival Sasini, which has been growing coffee since the colonial
era which ended in 1963, is constructing a macadamia-processing
factory that’s scheduled to crush its first nuts this month. “Both
these new lines of business, macadamia and avocado, show a lot of
promise and the respective industries are thriving globally,” Sasini
said in its latest annual report.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom eased -0.877% to close at 28.25 but was interestingly
trading at 28.75 +0.88% at the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 13.529m
shares worth 384.231m. Safaricom has corrected -13.74% since striking
a record closing high of 32.75 on the 5th of this month. That Price
correction accelerated a little after Citi downshifted their Price
Target but the price correction is now complete and I expect a rebound
back to 30+ ahead of the Earnings Release next month. Safaricom
remains +5.607% in 2018 and is a Buy.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
KCB firmed +0.95% to close at 53.00 and traded 5.056m shares. KCB is
+23.97% in 2018 and thats with out factoring in a very juicy FY
dividend. The AFDB also ponied up a $100m Line of Liquidity recently.
Equity Bank bumped +1.04% higher to close at 48.50 and traded 975,700
shares. Equity is +22.01% in 2018 and the regional Businesses appeared
to have gained some real momentum at at the FY 2017 mark.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange firmed +1.25% to close at 20.25 and
traded 1.242m shares. The NSE have built the Pipes and now they have
to push more product through the Pipe. The Pipes have been laid which
is an important development.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
KenGen eased -1.19% to close at 8.30 and was lightly traded with
99,000 shares changing hands. KenGen is oversold and todays thin
volumes confirm a price rebound is now overdue.
Kenya Power closed at 7.25 -2.03% and has slumped -20.32% in 2018.
KPLC traded 1.039m shares and Investor concern is currently at its
highest I have ever recorded.
Flame Tree Group reported FY 2017 Earnings, where a -4.698% FY Revenue
decline translated into a -72.222% FY 2017 Earnings Per Share
decline. FTG is a diversified Manufacturer and Distributor of plastic
tanks, cosmetics and snacks. The Company said ''Overall expenses rose
by 45m largely impacted by a 37.8m increase in administrative expenses
to 335.4m. Co. made significant provisions against receivables from
Supermarkets in Kenya that have been extremely slow too pay'' [It
would be good to know how much has been provisioned for]. FTG closed
at 4.10 and is -8.88% in 2018.
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