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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 30th of April 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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The shimmering heat of the high sun, the mirage behind the giraffes and the composition itself have combined to create an almost surreal image. @David_Yarrow
Africa


The shimmering heat of the high sun, the mirage behind the giraffes
and the composition itself have combined to create an almost surreal
image. It’s an “animal Times Square” in the heat of East Africa. I
have never had this number of giraffes all within 100 yards of me.

read more





30-APR-2018 :: "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history."
Law & Politics


The Events that took place on Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom
and during the Inter-Korean Summit were breathtaking for the Hollywood
Optics. The Opening Shot of Kim Jong Un surrounded by a Phalanx of
North Korean Officials [later replayed as Chairman Kim sat in his
Presidential Vehicle surrounded by his Ninja bodyguards] was almost as
good as the opening Sequence in PT Anderson's Boogie Nights [Steadicam
operator Andy Shuttleworth]. This was Cinema of the highest level
which is no surprise when You consider that Kim Jong-Il the Father was
obsessed with Cinema and amassed arguably the world’s largest personal
film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies. Kim
Jong-Il also had a penchant for Hennessy Paradis cognac and for two
years in the mid-1990s, he was the world's largest buyer of Hennessy
Paradis cognac, importing up to $800,000 of the stuff a year.  Kim
Jong-Il began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and
agitation department and its clear that Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo
Jong who holds the same role and evidently handles all the optics, is
a chip off the old Block. Friday was tip-top Geopolitical Optics. Mike
Pompeo, the newly minted US Secretary of State [His predecessor was
fired via Twitter] had visited Pyongyang the previous week and
pronounced; that the young North Korean leader was "a smart guy who's
doing his homework"

Marwan Bishara was a little jaded by the Optics tweeted

''When pictures are the news and symbols are the facts, cliches become
truths and media turns into propaganda or BS''

''For now, We are short on facts long on images and hence any
perspective is likely to be speculative. Globally, we are being played
in a ‘game of nations’ which could produce more of the same or
different ...''

The smartness of the Young Chairman Kim was also seen in his
''impromptu'' move where Kim had Moon cross into North Korea, a
request which was apparently spur of the moment, impossible to refuse
but evidently planned. Its been a whiplash period, however.

Only in September last year, North Korea was in its ''Rocketman''
Phase, firing Rockets all over.

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola.  They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’ [Delillo describing the
Trajectory of a a rocket with the serial number “00000” in his book
Gravity's Rainbow].

And here we are now;

The message Kim Jong-un left on the guestbook: "A new history starts
now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history." This
Handshake Business has become a Malcolm Gladwell-like virus.

Moon asked Kim when he would be able to go to the North, and Kim said
"do you want to come now?," according to South Korea's presidential
spokesperson Yoon Young-chan.

The Question remains as follows. Kim Jong-Un can hardly forget what
happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, both of whom met their
Ends after being de-fanged. So my Question remains, what security
guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? that convince him to
denuclearise. Offering up bullet-proof security guarantees is the
equivalent of threading the needle.

Dollar strength of late has been sapping support for Safe Haven Assets
like Gold and the Yen. In the Event that Geopolitical tensions
continue to ebb, we should see both safe-haven assets drift lower. The
South Korean KOSPI INDEX is +1.01% in 2018 and has room to run higher
on a ''peace-dividend'' rally.

The issue is now what happens with Iran where the US President is
seemingly determined to upend an agreement he probably has not even
read.

read more


Front page of Saturday's Rodong Sinmun newspaper in North Korea @martyn_williams
Law & Politics


Front page of Saturday's Rodong Sinmun newspaper in North Korea.
Amazing. The North Korean people are shown the leaders at the border,
Kim Jong Un stepping into South Korea.

read more









of course their Father Kim Jong-il was obsessed with Cinema
Law & Politics


Kim began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and
agitation department. He amassed arguably the world’s largest personal
film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies.

read more



Photo of the Year? A snapshot from last night's summit dinner. #panmunjomdeclaration
Law & Politics


Photo of the Year? A snapshot from last night’s summit dinner. Does
anyone know why there is 100 USD bill in President Moon’s hand and why
they are laughing so hard? Perhaps a Trump joke? #panmunjomdeclaration

read more





Yeah because that worked out so well for Gaddafi @KarlreMarks
Law & Politics


Syrian Presidency @Presidency_Sy من زيارة مدرسة بنات #الشهداء
اليوم – 27 نيسان 2018

https://twitter.com/Presidency_Sy/status/989920786906603521

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In his compelling new book "Tyrant," Shakespeare scholar Stephen Greenblatt describes Richard III as a "pathologically narcissistic" ruler @michikokakutani
Law & Politics


In his compelling new book "Tyrant," Shakespeare scholar Stephen
Greenblatt describes Richard III as a "pathologically narcissistic"
ruler who hates the rule of law because "it gets in his way and
because it stands for a notion of the public good that he holds in
contempt."

read more





@BarackObama hedged his bets because he was worried the Kingdom could easily morph into a Peacock Throne Persepolis redux
Law & Politics


Dear @DaahirOmaar @BarackObama hedged his bets because he was worried
the Kingdom could easily morph into a Peacock Throne Persepolis redux
- @POTUS @realDonaldTrump has gone Limit Long the CP KSA MBZ and Bibi
@netanyahu -

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#MbS to Jewish leaders: They can take what is offered & go back to negotiations or shut up - HT @BarakRavid
Law & Politics


#MbS to Jewish leaders: the Palestinians rejected every offer that was
given to them in the past decades. They can take what is offered & go
back to negotiations or shut up - HT @BarakRavid

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According to my sources, the Saudi Crown Prince told the Jewish leaders: @axios @BarakRavid
Law & Politics


"In the last several decades the Palestinian leadership has missed one
opportunity after the other and rejected all the peace proposals it
was given. It is about time the Palestinians take the proposals and
agree to come to the negotiations table or shut up and stop
complaining."
— MBS

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2131
Dollar Index 91.52
Japan Yen 109.18
Swiss Franc 0.9877
Pound 1.3770
Aussie 0.7560
India Rupee 66.62
South Korea Won 1067.44
Brazil Real 3.4579
Egypt Pound 17.6905
South Africa Rand 12.3001

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The Military Doesn't Advertise It, But U.S. Troops Are All Over Africa @NPR
Africa


When U.S. troops were ambushed in Niger last October, the widespread
reaction was surprise: The U.S. has military forces in Niger? What are
they doing there?

Yet in many ways, the Niger operation typifies U.S. military missions
underway in roughly 20 African countries, mostly in the northern half
of the continent. The missions tend to be small, they are carried out
largely below the radar, and most are focused on a specific aim:
rolling back Islamist extremism.

"The focus of the U.S. military operations is basically 'African
solutions for African problems,' " said John Campbell, who follows
Africa for the Council on Foreign Relations. "What that means is
developing the indigenous capacity to respond to security threats."

The U.S., he added, was largely helping with intelligence and
surveillance. The U.S. reportedly has one drone base in Niger and is
working on a second one.

This is only one region in Africa where the U.S. is active. Here are
several other examples:

Uganda: The U.S. military launched a search in 2011 for rebel leader
Joseph Kony, whose Lord's Resistance Army had terrorized Uganda and
neighboring states for years. The U.S. efforts have help weaken the
group. But Kony remains at large and the search has wound down.

Somalia: The American military charged into the East African nation in
1992 and helped end a famine but became entangled in the country's
civil war. The U.S. is now working with the military in its fight
against al-Shabab militants.

Djibouti: This tiny nation hosts the only permanent U.S. military base
in Africa, though the Americans here tend to focus more on the
turbulence in the nearby Persian Gulf.

Libya: The U.S. has carried out periodic drone strikes as part of a
campaign aimed at the Islamic State and other extremists in the
war-ravaged country.

read more


increasingly I see the US deploying its Hard Power Advantage to tilt the Pitch
Africa


And that the US has a decisive Hard Power Advantage over the African
Continent and that increasingly I see the US deploying its Hard Power
Advantage to tilt the Pitch and staunch the Chinese Advance.

read more


Dos Santos to stand down as head of Angola ruling party @AFP
Africa


Luanda (AFP) - Angola's former long-time president Jose Eduardo dos
Santos is to stand down as head of the ruling MPLA party, officials
said Friday, underlining the country's historic transfer of power.
Joao Lourenco, who succeeded dos Santos as president last year, will
also replace him as party leader in September, the MPLA said in a
statement.
Dos Santos ruled Angola for 38 years before stepping aside in favour
of Lourenco.
But dos Santos -- who has been dogged by reports of ill health -- had
remained as MPLA leader and was expected to retain significant
influence over Lourenco's government.
The party's executive said in a statement that it "approved of the
candidacy of Comrade Joao Lourenco as president of the MPLA" and that
it would hold a special congress in September.
At a meeting of the ruling party's central committee in March, Dos
Santos said he could stay on as party leader until 2019.
According to a member of the committee, there were fierce exchanges
between old-guard supporters of Dos Santos and members aligned to
Lourenco who wanted him named party leader promptly.
Dos Santos became Angolan president and head of the MPLA (People's
Movement for the Liberation of Angola) in 1979.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg -3.45% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.3001

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +7.85% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +34.56% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more







The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 14.6x #CytonnReport @CytonnInvest
Kenyan Economy


The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of
14.6x, which is 9.0% above the historical average of 13.4x, and a
dividend yield of 3.6%, lower than the historical average of 3.7%. The
current P/E valuation of 14.6x is 49% above the most recent trough
valuation of 9.8x experienced in the first week of February 2017, and
76% above the previous trough valuation of 8.3x experienced in
December 2011. The charts below indicate the historical P/E and
dividend yields of the market.

read more



land in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area recorded an average capital appreciation of 3.7% in 2017, compared to the 6-year CAGR of 17.0% @CytonnInvest
Kenyan Economy


According to the report, land in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area
recorded an average capital appreciation of 3.7% in 2017, compared to
the 6-year CAGR of 17.0%. The best performing submarkets were in the
high end residential zone, which had an annual appreciation rate of
4.8%, followed by low end residential zone, which recorded an annual
appreciation of 4.5%. Site and Service schemes in Satellite Towns had
the lowest returns, recording annual appreciation rates of 2.7%. The
opportunity in the sector is in markets with high returns such as
Karen, Kilimani, Ridgeways, Juja and Kasarani, which recorded annual
capital appreciation rates of more than 7.5% in 2017 and are thus the
most attractive areas both for land investment and real estate
development.

read more


Cement consumption dipped for the first time in 17 years to 6.2 million tonnes owing to depressed demand in the construction sector, Economic Survey 2018 shows. Daily Nation
Kenyan Economy


About 6.7 million tonnes were used in 2016 but the volume declined by
8.2 per cent last year.

Consumption has risen steadily from year 2001. The last decline
happened in 2000 when it stood at 1.067 million tonnes compared to
1.111 million tonnes the previous year.

read more




"Home Afrika owes us money and we are in the process of giving instructions to our lawyers to pursue our money," said Jonathan Seex of Tamarind Management Ltd
Kenyan Economy


“We had a working relationship through a technical services agreement
with Home Afrika in 2015... right now, Home Afrika owes us money and
we are in the process of giving instructions to our lawyers to pursue
our money,” said Jonathan Seex of Tamarind Management Ltd.

But Home Afrika, in a rejoinder, says it does not owe Tamarind any
money, noting that the partnership was never terminated but put on
hold. It says it was on this understanding that Home Afrika never
entered a similar pact with rival partners.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


Amber Rudd is the fourth UK cabinet minister to resign in six months
(Fallon, Patel, Green, Rudd)
Yields on the GOK 10-year and 30-year Eurobonds increased by 10 bps
each to 6.8% and 7.9% from 6.7% and 7.8% last week as per
@CytonnInvest.
On a YTD basis, the shilling has gained 2.8% against the USD
The Nairobi All Share which was +4.84% through this morning but had
endured a steep -8.694% decline since scoring a record high of 196.57
set on April 5th, finally found its footing and turned +0.05 points
higher.
The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of
14.6x @CytonnInvest
The NSE20 firmed +11.76 points to close at 179.53.
Equity Turnover was 746.485m
Cement consumption dipped for the first time in 17 years to 6.2
million tonnes owing to depressed demand in the construction sector,
Economic Survey 2018 shows. Daily Nation
About 6.7 million tonnes were used in 2016 but the volume declined by
8.2 per cent last year.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 28.25 and traded 9.959m shares worth
283.547m. Safaricom is +5.607% in 2018 but has corrected -13.74% since
clocking a record closing high on 5th April. Safaricom will release
results in May and the price as been basing out [before turning
higher] around these levels for about 5 sessions.

TPS Serena Hotels popped +6.25% higher to close at 34.00 and traded
6,600 shares. Tourism was a Stand-Out through 2017 and is a rising
Tide for Serena which is the only Tourism Pure Play listed at the
securities Exchange. TPS Serena Hotels is +4.615% in 2018 and targets
the 42.00 Level before Year End.

WPP-Scangroup which recently announced FY 2017 Earnings and some
corporate action rallied +2.949% to close at 19.20 on light trading of
3,900 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank rebounded +1.025% to close at 49.25 and traded 5.539m
shares worth 272.881m. Equity Bank has surged +23.89% in 2018 and I
expect a rally towards 60.00 Dr. James Mwangi has spoken of having
plenty of ammunition in a post Rate Cap environment and it looks like
the CS Treasury as found a way of threading that needle.
KCB firmed +1.01% to close at 50.00 and was trading at 51.00 +3.03% at
the closing Bell. KCB traded 1.763m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


The World Bank announced that it had approved a $180 million loan
guarantee on Monday for Kenya Electricity Generation Company.The
guarantee will help in long-term commercial financing of up to $300
million to refinance part of KenGen’s existing commercial loans,
enhance its credit quality and promote further development of
renewable energy in Kenya, the World Bank said.
Kenya has an installed generating capacity of 2,370 MW and peak demand
of about 1,770 MW. KenGen, which is 70 percent owned by the
government, has an installed capacity of 1,631 MW. KenGen eased -2.33%
to close at 8.40 and traded 1.275m shares. The share price is oversold
and will rebound back beyond 9.00 in due course.

Total Kenya rallied +5.97% to close at 35.50 and has rallied any
eye-popping +51.06% in 2018.

Home Afrika reported a -12.821% decline in FY EPS which was -44cents.
Home Afrika carries a market Cap of $3.84m and in the accompanying
commentary said;
''deferred revenue and deposits from sales of plots grew from 2b in
2016 to 2.35b in 2017''
''book value of Group's sellable land and other inventory increased
from 3.1b to 3.7b in 2017''
''We are hopeful that the process [of fundraising] will be
successfully concluded and the funding committed by strategic and
other investors by end of 2018''
Home Afrika retreated -5.26% to close at 0.90 and  is -35.714% in 2018


--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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