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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 07th of May 2018

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#Bitcoin drops as Buffett compared bitcoin to rat poison at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting @Schuldensuehner 9,300.00

#Bitcoin drops as Buffett compared bitcoin to rat poison at Berkshire
Hathaway's annual meeting. 87-year-old investor said bitcoin would
"definitely come to a bad ending."

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Tim is huge - perhaps the world’s biggest #elephant. He roams around a
100 km² area inside and outside Amboseli National Park. To be in his
company and to be this close is an exhilarating and primeval

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@Aiww What's in a Name?

A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

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North Korea has warned the US about using "pressure and military threats" against it as the two countries prepare for a historic summit.
Law & Politics

A Foreign Ministry official said the US was deliberately provoking the
North by suggesting sanctions will not be lifted until it gives up
nuclear weapons.
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are due
to meet in the next few weeks.
It will be the first ever meeting between the two countries' leaders.
"The US is deliberately provoking [North Korea] at the time when the
situation on the Korean peninsula is moving toward peace and
reconciliation thanks to the historic north-south summit and the
Panmunjom Declaration," the statement said.
Donald Trump says he will maintain a tough stance on North Korea
"This act cannot be construed otherwise than a dangerous attempt to
ruin the hard-won atmosphere of dialogue and bring the situation back
to square one.
"It would not be conducive to addressing the issue if the US
miscalculates the peace-loving intention of [North Korea] as a sign of
'weakness' and continues to pursue its pressure and military threats
against the latter."
Mr Trump has said he will maintain sanctions and other pressure on the
North and suggested that his tough stance has helped facilitate

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30-APR-2018 :: So my Question remains, what security guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? that convince him to denuclearise
Law & Politics

The Question remains as follows. Kim Jong-Un can hardly forget what
happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, both of whom met their
Ends after being de-fanged. So my Question remains, what security
guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? that convince him to
denuclearise. Offering up bullet-proof security guarantees is the
equivalent of threading the needle.

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The president is "as committed to regime change as we are," Giuliani said @haaretzcom
Law & Politics

The president is "as committed to regime change as we are," Giuliani
said in his address. Giuliani predicted that Trump will withdraw the
United States from the 2015 deal with Iran. "With Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo on his right side, and National Security Adviser John
Bolton on his left side, what do you think is going to happen to that
agreement?" Giuliani asked with a grin.

Trump must decide by May 12 whether to recertify Iran's compliance
with the nuclear deal or to reimpose nuclear-related sanctions. He has
stated in recent weeks that the deal is a "disaster" and that it never
should have been signed. European leaders such as French President
Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have lobbied him
not to withdraw from the agreement.

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28-OCT-2013 @BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The Two Husseins
Law & Politics

THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran’s
Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran
relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979
when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of
Iran. The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi
and otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein
Obama] and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet
Muhammed’s revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of
anthroponymy [personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably
view this as very fortuitous.

I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year
and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:

What’s in a name?

A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of
interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests
fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle
East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg,
then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool.
Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama’s Iranian
rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly
forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.

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16-APR-2018 :: War Drums Putin cornered like a Rat in Syria - What happens next? @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

In his book from 2000, Putin briefly tells a story of the first time
he learned “the meaning of the word cornered.”

There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the
meaning of the word cornered. Tere were hordes of rats in the front
entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once
I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it
into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and
threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was
chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs.

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DEC 16 :: The Parabolic Rebound of Vladimir Putin
Law & Politics

I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

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OCT 15 :: Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster
Law & Politics

Putin has always been considered a grandmaster of geopolitics, but of
late has been placed under tremendous pressure by the oil warfare
specialist –President Barrack Obama of the US.

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Creative destruction is accelerating: S&P 500 lifespans continue to shrink. @Schuldensuehner
International Trade

Creative destruction is accelerating: S&P 500 lifespans continue to
shrink. The 33y average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 in 1964
narrowed to 24yrs by 2016 and is forecast to shrink to just 12yrs by

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Few companies are immune to the forces of creative destruction. Our corporate longevity forecast of S&P 500 companies anticipates average tenure on the list growing shorter and shorter over the next decade.
International Trade

The 33-year average tenure of companies
on the S&P 500 in 1964 narrowed to 24 years by 2016 and is forecast to
shrink to just 12 years by 2027 (Chart 1).
Record private equity activity, a robust M&A market, and the growth of
startups with billion-dollar valuations are leading indicators of
future turbulence.
A gale force warning to leaders: at the current churn rate, about half
of S&P 500 companies will be replaced over the next ten years.
Retailers were especially hit hard by disruptive forces, and there are
strong signs of restructuring in financial services, healthcare,
energy, travel, and real estate.
The turbulence points to the need for companies to embrace a dual
transformation, to focus on changing customer needs, and other
strategic interventions.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1,1930
Dollar Index 92.71
Japan Yen 109.31
Swiss Franc 1.005
Pound 1.3530
Aussie 0.7510
India Rupee 67.105
South Korea Won 1078.41
Brazil Real 3.5287
Egypt Pound 17.6550
South Africa Rand 12.5448

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. #Iran sanctions could raise #Oil prices by $10 a barrel, Barron's says @Schuldensuehner

Should Trump reimpose limits, the global market could lose around one
million barrels of oil a day.

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.@Nestle and @Starbucks bring together the world's most iconic coffee brands.
International Trade

Nestlé today announced an agreement granting the company perpetual
rights to market Starbucks consumer and foodservice products globally,
outside of the company’s coffee shops. This transaction provides
Nestlé with a strong platform for continued growth in North America
with leadership positions in the premium roast and ground and
portioned coffee businesses. It also allows Nestlé to capture exciting
new growth opportunities in the rest of the world with Starbucks
premium products. As a complete provider of coffee solutions, Nestlé
will accelerate growth in out-of-home channels. The two companies will
work closely together on innovation and go-to-market strategies to
bring the best coffee to customers around the world.
"This global coffee alliance will bring the Starbucks experience to
the homes of millions more around the world through the reach and
reputation of Nestlé,” said Kevin Johnson, president and ceo,
Starbucks. "This historic deal is part of our ongoing efforts to focus
and evolve our business to meet the changing consumer needs, and we
are proud to work alongside a company that is committed to our shared
“This transaction is a significant step for our coffee business,
Nestlé’s largest high-growth category,” said Mark Schneider, CEO,
Nestlé. "With Starbucks, Nescafé and Nespresso we bring together three
iconic brands in the world of coffee. We are delighted to have
Starbucks as our partner. Both companies have true passion for
outstanding coffee and are proud to be recognized as global leaders
for their responsible and sustainable coffee sourcing. This is a great
day for coffee lovers around the world."
As part of this transaction, Starbucks will receive an up-front cash
payment of USD 7.15 billion for a business which generated annual
sales of USD 2 billion. The transaction does not include the transfer
of any fixed assets, which facilitates a smooth and efficient
integration. Nestlé expects this business to contribute positively to
its earnings per share and organic growth targets as from 2019.
Nestlé’s ongoing share-buyback program will remain unchanged.

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07-MAY-2018 :: Africa Calling

Of course, Africa is not a Country, in fact the Continent is seriously
non-linear, booms and busts quite often occur simultaneously. However,
what is clear is that the demographic surge, the overwhelming nature
of the numbers of this ''Born Free'' generation [Despite beliefs that
Millennials make up a large portion of the African population, they
are less than 30% of this population according to the 2017 estimates
by the Africa Development Bank. Africans aged 15 and below make up 41%
of the continent’s population. Those below 19 years old are at 51%. -
Geopoll] is creating a more homogenous African. The Arrival of the
Information Century, which started with the mobile Phone, then the
mobile internet triggered a process of binding Africans closer to
their Fellow Africans. Once upon a time, when I was a Young boy, we
had one of the few landlines in Mombasa, that was my connection to the
World. Today, I and millions like me know what is happening in real
time across this massive Continent of ours practically in real time.
What has occurred in the last two decades is surely a revolution, a
revolution whose velocity continues to gather speed and when you look
at the graph [which started at practically zero] its a little dizzying
and I would like to write a book about it at some point.

My favourite Economist is a gentleman called Joseph Alois Schumpeter who said

Creative destruction, describes the "process of industrial mutation
that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within,
incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one."

According to a Report by Innosight [H/T @Schuldensuehner], The 33-year
average tenure of companies  on the S&P 500 in 1964 narrowed to 24
years by 2016 and is forecast to shrink to just 12 years by 2027.

I imagine one of my more jaded and hard-bitten Africa Hands muttering

''Look here Aly-Khan, Africa plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose''

And I would respond

''Look here Buddy, stop dreaming. The Change is here, its already happened''

Take a look at the Banks. This is a Darwinian moment, surely. The most
important role at this moment is surely that of Artificial
Intelligence. I have yet to see any Bank speak to this in any Investor
Briefing, meaningfully. Look at the Retail Sector. Globally the Retail
Sector has been completely disrupted. I have to believe, that retail
disruption has already reached our African shores. If You want an
example of retail disruption just take a look at Kenya. At moments of
disruption, there is always a great deal of debris scattered all over
the place. My commute is along the Kiambu road [which was once a
quaint little used road into Coffee growing Country] but today has
morphed into a crazy ''Mad Max'' World where buses careering along the
wrong side of the road in a red dust cloud is something the Commuter
has to consider as a relatively regular phenomena and as I peer
through the dust, one thing I am sure about is that E-Commerce is
coming and its coming bigly and a lot of these freshly minted Malls
[some just a couple of kilometres from another] are headed for

''My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

Let me loop now to Safaricom, which will be reporting its FY Earnings
Wednesday morning. I don't need to remind you of Safaricom's
centrality to the fortunes of the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Safaricom has a market Cap of $11.2b about 43% of the total market Cap
of the Securities Exchange. Therefore, this is the Big Beast of
Earnings Releases at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. After hitting a
record high on April 5th, Safaricom corrected -20.00% through Friday
morning. Citibank were surely the Catalyst with a sceptical Earnings
perspective. Safaricom provided every Kenyan with an Entry Ticket into
the c21st. Jack Ma last year posed the question when asked about the
Infrastructure Gap,

''But what is the most important Infrastructure of them all? Its the
information Superhighway and yours is fast.''

Safaricom is a Need not a Want. Buy the Dip, add to the position if we
react lower on the results. Safaricom has built the Superhighway.
Everyone else is still playing the tarmacking Game. You know what I
mean. The roads around Westlands are the best example.

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@Safaricomplc share price data here

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           27.00
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,081,766,556,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 22.314

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After 20 years, can Ethiopia and Eritrea ever reconcile? @NewStatesman's @martinplaut

erupted between Ethiopia and Eritrea on 6 May 1998 was unlike any the
continent had seen since the Second World War. This was no slaughter
between troops and rebels mainly armed with Kalashnikovs and machetes.
This was a full-blown conflict using everything from heavy artillery
and trench warfare to ariel combat involving modern aircraft. No-one
knows the numbers dead and wounded, but estimate as many as 100,000
were killed. Some put the figures even higher.

The outcome of the war hangs like a dark cloud over the whole region.
The Algiers Peace Agreement, signed on 18 June 2000 was meant to end
the conflict. It was a Rolls Royce of an agreement, brokered by the
international community. Prisoners were exchanged, compensation paid
for losses on both sides and a UN peacekeeping force was despatched to
patrol the border.

Both sides were required to abide by the findings of a Boundary
Commission which would define where the border lay. This was duly
completed, only for Ethiopia to insist that further discussions be
held. This Eritrea refused – as it had every right to do. Instead of
peace, relations between the two countries have been frozen for the
past 20 years. The border is sealed and tens of thousands of troops
face each other over the barren frontier.

The result? Eritrea hosts Ethiopian rebel movements, who attempt from
time to time to overthrow the government in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia does
much the same, in reverse. But the Eritrean government went further,
training and supplying Islamist rebels of al-Shabab in Somalia. It was
aggressive intervention across the region that resulted in the United
Nations imposing sanctions on Eritrea in 2009, which remain in force.

Ethiopia too has suffered. Its natural outlets to the sea, the
Eritrean ports of Massawa and Assab are unavailable and Ethiopia has
had to develop a convoluted transport network via Djibouti get its
goods to the outside world. Communities on both sides of the border
have been divided; unable to reach the lands they once tilled and
neighbours they once married. It is a tragedy all round.

On the surface Eritrea is far more stable. In reality there is deep
anger among its citizens. The country’s youth are trapped in a
permanent system of conscription that can be extended indefinitely.
Rather than spend years, if not decades, manning trenches along the
Ethiopian border tens of thousands have fled into exile.

This suits Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, an absolute ruler, who
brooks no opposition. The no-war, no-peace confrontation with Ethiopia
has provided the perfect excuse for permanently keeping the lid on
Eritrean democracy. There are few incentives for him to make
concessions to resolve the situation with Addis Ababa.

Only a dramatic gesture from Ethiopia, reinforced by a promise that UN
sanctions will be lifted and closer economic and possibly even
military ties with Washington might end this stalemate.

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Dollar Squeeze Spells More Pain for World's Worst Currency @business

The world’s worst-performing currency in 2018 is on the slide again.

Angola devalued the kwanza in January and then kept it fairly stable
in the following two months. But the central bank in Africa’s
second-biggest oil producer is loosening its grip again, dropping the
currency 3.7 percent against the dollar last week and 2.2 percent this
week. That’s brought this year’s loss to 27 percent.

The devaluation has gone some way to easing concerns of investors, who
have also been impressed by reforms under new President Joao Lourenco:
on Wednesday, they placed $9 billion of orders for $3 billion of
Eurobonds sold by the government. The country is also benefiting from
Brent crude’s 11 percent rise since the end of 2017 to almost $74 a

But that’s not been enough to end a shortage of dollars, which is
crippling importers, and it hasn’t offset a fall in oil production.
Angola pumped 1.5 million barrels a day in April, the least since the
beginning of 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The foreign-exchange squeeze remains “substantial” and is reflected by
the kwanza’s black-market rate, Standard Chartered Plc analysts
including Samir Gadio and Eva Murigu said in a note this week. The
kwanza trades at 420 against the greenback on the streets of the
capital, Luanda, almost 45 percent weaker than its official rate of

Increasing bearishness toward emerging markets doesn’t help, either.
Developing-nation currencies have slumped for five weeks running as
the dollar strengthens and U.S. bond yields rise. Turkey’s lira and
Argentina’s peso have been hammered this week, though they’re still
outperforming the kwanza so far this year.

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.@EurasiaGroup Sees Zambia Default Risk Rising as @IMFNews Loan Talks Stall @business

Zambia’s currency extended its decline to a four-month low against the
dollar and its Eurobond yields soared as loan talks with the
International Monetary Fund stalled amid concern the country is
under-reporting its external debt.

The kwacha weakened 0.8 percent to 10.034 per dollar Friday, bringing
its decline in the past two weeks to 5.9 percent. Yields on $1.25
billion of 2027 Eurobonds climbed 12 basis points to 9.43 percent, the
highest since December 2016. The yield has surged 246 basis points
from a record low in January.

Here are some of Eurasia’s views on Zambia:

“External debt is likely higher than the official $8.7 billion figure;
a planned review of the situation has been delayed and the results may
not be made public”
“The risk of default is low in 2018, but will increase substantially
in 2019 and 2020 absent a concerted effort to cut spending” and an IMF
“President Edgar Lungu’s cash-strapped government has resisted the
IMF’s calls to rein in spending. Lungu will probably continue to
borrow and spend in the lead up to the election” in 2021
Debt figures “will likely be revised upward after the Finance Ministry
completes its debt sustainability analysis,” expected in June
“Nonetheless, this is not a Mozambique-style ‘hidden debt’ situation;”
rather a “breakdown” of the debt-tracking process as individual
ministries and parastals secured project financing
“Rising copper prices will provide a small cushion in the short term,
but the government remains highly vulnerable to external shocks such
as a slump in commodity prices or a drought that dents hydropower
production and in turn hurts the mining sector”

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -3.12% 2018

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.5448


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +7.78% 2018


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +34.82% 2018


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.@VivoEnergy Bet on African Fuel Yields London's Biggest IP0 of 2018 @business

Vivo Energy Plc’s bet on fuel demand growth in Africa has earned it a
market value of almost 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion) in London’s
largest initial public offering this year.

Backed by the world’s biggest independent oil trader Vitol Group and
private-equity firm Helios Investment Partners, Vivo sells fuels and
lubricants across the continent from Morocco to Mozambique. The
company expects demand for its products to grow between 3 percent and
4 percent annually, said Chief Executive Officer Christian Chammas.

“The investor meetings have shown fantastic African interest because
of the consumer growth,” Chammas said in a phone interview on Friday.
Shares of Vivo climbed 4.6 percent to close at 172.50 pence in
preliminary trading in London before it officially makes its debut on
the exchange next week.

Vivo’s market value also makes it the largest listing of an
African-focused business since 2005, according to a spokesman for the
London Stock Exchange.

Established in 2011 by Vitol and Helios, the company operates under
the Shell brand at about 1,800 service stations in over 15 countries
in Africa. Following its acquisition of Engen, it will expand to a
total of 24 nations on the continent, Chammas said. Vivo posted
adjusted net income of $171 million last year, up 57 percent from

The IPO reduces Vitol’s stake in the fuel retailer to 40 percent from
55 percent previously, Chammas said. Helios will own about 30 percent,
down from 44 percent. The company expects to start trading in London
and Johannesburg on May 10 and join the FTSE 250 index by September,
he said.

“Investors don’t give companies from frontier markets the benefit of
the doubt,” said Miguel Azevedo, head of investment banking at
Citigroup Inc. for the Middle East, most of Africa and Portugal. "You
have to tick all the boxes, story, management team, government, right
listing location and especially accurate pricing."

With other African companies also planning listings, there could be
more money raised from African IPOs this year than in any since the
global financial crisis, Azevedo said. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Credit
Suisse Group AG and Citigroup were global coordinators for Vivo’s IPO.

Helios, an Africa-focused private equity firm with $3.5 billion of
assets under management, said it’s keen to remain a shareholder for
the foreseeable future, even after the six month lock-up period when
it can’t sell further stock.

As much as 30.5 percent of Vivo’s equity is being sold for 165 pence a
share. The company had guided on April 23 for a range of 155 pence to
180 pence. After Vitol and Helios, the largest shareholders will be
Capital Group with 4.2 percent of issued capital and Fidelity
International Ltd. with about 3 percent, Chammas said.

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Ethiopian Prime Minister @PM_AbiyAhmed has arrived in the country for a two-day State Visit @MEsipisu
Kenyan Economy

Ethiopian Prime Minister @PM_AbiyAhmed has arrived in the country for
a two-day State Visit geared towards bolstering the existing strong
relations between Kenya and Ethiopia

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Unilever credit initiative aims to drive Africa revenues FT
Kenyan Economy

Francis Magambo could not be happier. Sales of Unilever products at
his Magson supermarket — a 35-square-metre, dimly lit shop in the
Tassia district of Nairobi — have risen 40 per cent to Ks21,000 ($207)
a week since January. He expects them to rise at least another 50 per
cent in the next three months.

The surge is not the result of a boycott of Unilever competitors or
new-found wealth by residents in a neighbourhood where few roads are
paved and many sewers are open streams.

Mr Magambo has joined a project launched by the consumer goods company
to help the tens of thousands of small and medium-sized businesses in
Kenya sell its products, from margarine to washing detergent.

With most traders not having bank accounts let alone a formal credit
history, Unilever is using big data to unlock their hitherto extremely
restricted access to credit, and thus expand its own sales.

Bruno Witvoet, president of Unilever Africa, said the project, called
“Jaza Duka”, or “Fill the Kiosks” in Swahili, highlighted the need to
“look at different models” to succeed in sub-Saharan Africa, where
most retail trade is through the informal sector.

Informal traders account for just over 50% of retail sales for Unilever in Kenya

“To grow our business means developing volume,” he said. “And that
means increasing coverage of traditional traders. But the cost of
financing for these people is a real hurdle, it’s crippling many

Other multinationals, including Procter & Gamble and East African
Breweries, majority owned by Diageo, have started similar, but
smaller, initiatives with 4G Capital, a Nairobi-based microfinance

Cash flow and access to credit are my crises. This has given me both
because I don’t have to pay cash to increase my stock

Unilever uses its traders’ purchasing history to determine whether
they qualify for loans and the maximum credit available. Traders are
given 17 days to repay the loans interest free.

It has partnered with Kenya Commercial Bank, east Africa’s biggest
lender by assets, and Mastercard, the payments company, to provide the
finance and technology respectively.

Under Jaza Duka, the money is loaned to Unilever’s distributors which
supply the traders who then repay KCB directly, usually via a mobile
money platform.

The year-long pilot has involved 800 traders in and around Nairobi.
The scheme will be rolled out to 35,000 retailers nationwide this
month and then internationally. Mr Witvoet said Tanzania and Nigeria
are among the countries being considered.

Joshua Oigara, KCB’s chief executive, said the 97 per cent repayment
rate among Jaza Duka traders highlighted how banks needed toadopt
alternative methods of doing business.

, so we have to move away from the old model of know your customer,”
he said. “Sometimes we don’t know them but the data show that theycan
be trusted. It’s the ability to analyse the data that we are
collecting and linking to the customer’s behaviour which is the reason
for our success.”

Deepak Dave, a Nairobi-based risk management expert, said that if the
scheme succeeded there would be myriad benefits.

“For Unilever, if this can work with KCB it should work with other
banks as well, and the informal sector is being incentivised to
formalise and professionalise so they can fall into the basket of
trusted buyers,” he said. “As they formalise the country benefits
because they become taxpayers.”

The project is also likely to bolster Unilever’s reputation in Kenya,
which suffered after former Unilever Tea Kenya employees tried to sue
the company for alleged inadequate protection during election-related
ethnic unrest in 2007. Hearings on whether the case can proceed in
London were held in the UK Court of Appeal last week.

Mr Magambo said Jaza Duka had “transformed” his business. “Cash flow
and access to credit are my crises,” he added. “This has given me both
because I don’t have to pay cash to increase my stock.”

He said profits could rise as much as 10 per cent as the additional
Unilever stock triggers additional sales of other products.

Mohona Dey, Unilever’s manager for the project, admitted some traders
are reluctant to participate. “There’s a local suspicion of banks in
general and some [traders] have said if it seems too good to be true
then it probably is and so ‘what’s the catch?’,” she said. “And we say
there isn’t one.”

Amasi Muriuki, who owns a kiosk in Tissa, is one such retailer. “My
sales fell a lot last year during the political crisis,” she said,
referring to Kenya’s disputed presidential elections. “I don’t want to
take on extra stock yet. And I don’t want loans either.”

Mr Witvoet recognised it would take time for the initiative to
significantly affect Unilever’s Kenyan business — where informal
traders account for just over 50 per cent of retail sales — let alone
the broader African business, for which it does not break out

“In Africa you’re bound to have a big vision,” he said. “But don’t
believe you’re going to deliver the big vision in a couple of years;
you really have to understand how you’re going to develop the various
steps to get there.”

In Tissa, Agnes Katulu was excited about obtaining her first loan —
that enabled her to increase her Unilever stock by 50 per cent. “I
will sell it all, I know my customers,” she said. “This will help me
so much.”

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Kenya's Java House aims to spread wings under Abraaj
Kenyan Economy

Kenyan casual dining and coffee chain Java House Africa, bought last
year by private equity firm Abraaj, plans to double outlet numbers in
its domestic market over the next two years before expanding in East
Africa and beyond.

The company plans to open 25 new restaurants in Uganda and a dozen in
Rwanda over the next five years, Chief Executive Paul Smith said in an
interview with Reuters on Thursday.

Java is also considering entering Nigeria, either as a wholly foreign
owned enterprise or in a joint venture, and is looking at franchise
opportunities in South Africa, said former Costa Coffee executive

Java, which was opened by an American as a single Nairobi coffee shop
in 1999, has grown into a 65-outlet chain employing 2,200 people,
including in Rwanda and Uganda.

Its sale last year by Emerging Capital Partners (ECP) drew attention
to strong private equity interest in East Africa’s consumer sector.
ECP reportedly received more than 10 bids. Abraaj declined to say how
much it paid.

A city of more than four million people, Nairobi is home to a growing
middle class and large expatriate population. It is the Africa
headquarters of U.S. multinationals from Coca-Cola to General

Java competes with global brands including KFC and Subway, as well as
smaller foreign-owned local chains such as Artcaffe.

Nine months since the takeover, Java is performing beyond expectations
and the aim to grow by several multiples within five years is on
track, said Abraaj’s East Africa managing director Ashish Patel.

“For us Java House is not an East African story. It is an
international story. I’m pretty certain we’ll get there in the next
couple of years,” he said.

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Yes @GeorgeKaburu if @abraajgroup did that I reckon @abraajgroup would reap a 2x return on @javahouseafrica purchase - surprised @NSE_PLC is not parked outside Mr.Arif Naqvi's office
Kenyan Economy

Yes @GeorgeKaburu if @abraajgroup did that I reckon @abraajgroup would
reap a 2x return on @javahouseafrica purchase - surprised @NSE_PLC is
not parked outside Mr.Arif Naqvi's office but they are probably going
for 10x over 60 months

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2018

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