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Behold The Sudden Stop - Risk Of Emerging Markets Collapse Looms @zerohedge Africa |
The recent collapse of the Argentine Peso and other emerging currencies is more than a warning sign.
It could be the arrival of a “sudden stop”. As I explain in Escape from the Central Bank Trap (BEP, 2017), a sudden stop happens when the extraordinary and excessive flow of cheap US dollars into emerging markets suddenly reverses and funds return to the U.S. looking for safer assets. The central bank “carry trade” of low interest rates and abundant liquidity was used to buy “growth” and “inflation-linked” assets in emerging markets. As the evidence of a global slowdown adds to the rising rates in the U.S. and the Fed’s QT (quantitative tightening), emerging markets lose the tsunami of inflows and face massive outflows, because the bubble period was not used to strengthen those countries’ economies, but to perpetuate their imbalances.
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05-FEB-2018 :: Halcyon Days @TheStarKenya Africa |
Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,
From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds (kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today, the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for being happy and/or successfuL
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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice Africa |
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door I had to find the passage back To the place I was before “Relax,” said the night man, “We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! “ What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.
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28-OCT-2013 @BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The Two Husseins Law & Politics |
THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi and otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein Obama] and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet Muhammed’s revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of anthroponymy [personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably view this as very fortuitous.
I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:
What’s in a name?
A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich, all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.
Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg, then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool. Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama’s Iranian rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.
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Israeli minister: If Iran attacks from Syria, Assad's 'blood is forfeit' @Jerusalem_Post Law & Politics |
"If Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a military vanguard against us, to attack us from Syrian territory, he should know that would be the end of him, the end of his regime."
Sharpening these warnings, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Monday that Assad may find himself in Israel's sights.
"If Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a military vanguard against us, to attack us from Syrian territory, he should know that would be the end of him, the end of his regime," Steinitz told the Ynet news site.
Asked if that meant Israel might assassinate Assad, Steinitz said: "His blood would be forfeit." He also appeared to suggest that his remarks did not reflect Israeli government policy, saying: "I'm not talking about any concrete proposal."
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16-APR-2018 :: War Drums Putin cornered like a Rat in Syria - What happens next? @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
In his book from 2000, Putin briefly tells a story of the first time he learned “the meaning of the word cornered.”
There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered. Tere were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs.
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07-MAY-2018 :: Africa Calling Africa |
Of course, Africa is not a Country, in fact the Continent is seriously non-linear, booms and busts quite often occur simultaneously. However, what is clear is that the demographic surge, the overwhelming nature of the numbers of this ''Born Free'' generation [Despite beliefs that Millennials make up a large portion of the African population, they are less than 30% of this population according to the 2017 estimates by the Africa Development Bank. Africans aged 15 and below make up 41% of the continent’s population. Those below 19 years old are at 51%. - Geopoll] is creating a more homogenous African. The Arrival of the Information Century, which started with the mobile Phone, then the mobile internet triggered a process of binding Africans closer to their Fellow Africans. Once upon a time, when I was a Young boy, we had one of the few landlines in Mombasa, that was my connection to the World. Today, I and millions like me know what is happening in real time across this massive Continent of ours practically in real time. What has occurred in the last two decades is surely a revolution, a revolution whose velocity continues to gather speed and when you look at the graph [which started at practically zero] its a little dizzying and I would like to write a book about it at some point.
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"Champagne consumption is part of the culture in Lagos. It is not a Lagos party if there are no champagne bottles being popped" @Forbes Africa |
According to a recent McKinsey report, Africa has the world’s youngest population. More than 50% of its people are under 20 years old, compared with 28% in China. The 16 to 34 age group now accounts for roughly 55% of income. And with that comes an insatiable appetite for alcohol. In 2017, champagne consumption in the West African country was estimated to reach 1.1 million liters, according to a Euromonitor report.
“Champagne consumption is part of the culture in Lagos. It is not a Lagos party if there are no champagne bottles being popped. It has actually turned into a competition where clubbers try to out-pop each other,” says local pub promoter Paul Yusuf.
The Euromonitor report also uncovered that Nigeria had the fastest-growing rate of new champagne consumption in the world, second only to France, and ahead of rapidly growing Brazil and China, as well as established markets such as the United States and Australia. That accounts for about $50 million spent on bubbly and still rising each year. A surprising feat for a country where about 65% live on less than $1 a day.
From rooftop venues such as the newly-refurbished Sky Lounge at Eko Hotels & Suites that have elevated the Lagos night to stratospheric heights, to the revelers who want to let off steam, one thing is for certain, Lagos never sleeps.
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.@flyethiopian Airlines to step up expansion with more deals and jets @ReutersAfrica Africa |
Its plan had been to more than double its fleet to 120 and become Africa’s biggest airline by 2025, but it already has 100 planes flying to dozens of destinations from Asia to South America, including four U.S. cities.
The state-owned carrier has also outpaced regional competitors Kenya Airways and South African Airways to become Africa’s largest airline by revenue and profit, according to the International Air Transport Association.
“We have expanded more than we planned,” said Chief Executive Tewolde Gebremariam. “We had to revise the objective to make it 150 airplanes or more by 2025.”
It now plans to place orders this year for 13 additional Boeing 787 jets and six more Airbus A350s, he told Reuters.
The airline has come a long way from when it was established in 1945 as a joint venture with now-defunct U.S. carrier Trans World Airlines (TWA).
In its 2016/17 financial year Ethiopian Airlines generated $2.7 billion in revenue, Tewolde said, up more than 11 percent from the previous year. Passenger numbers climbed by more than 18 percent to 9 million while net profit was $233 million, up from a little more than $220 million.
In 2013 Ethiopian Airlines acquired a minority stake in Malawi Airlines to serve as a base for its southern Africa operations.
That kicked off a series of deals including January’s agreement with Zambia’s government to relaunch that country’s national carrier, shut down more than two decades ago. [L8N1PB36C]
The strategy is aimed at gaining a “competitive advantage” against rivals such as those in the Gulf, Tewolde said.
With Africa’s aviation industry still hampered by government protectionism and high taxes, Tewolde said that setting up or taking stakes in small carriers is a way around the restrictions.
Ethiopian Airlines aims to create a new airline in Mozambique that it will fully own, he said, adding that it is also in talks with Chad, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea and Guinea to set up carriers through joint ventures.
“Going forward, it will be difficult for us to compete with only one hub in Addis Ababa.”
But it isn’t all clear skies for the fast-growing carrier.
The economic downturn in Africa caused by the collapse of oil prices in 2014 has indirectly hit the continent’s airlines, and Ethiopian is unable to repatriate more than $145 million in profits from Angola, Sudan and Zimbabwe because of foreign exchange shortages, Tewolde said.
“Running a business needs cash flow,” he said. “Here in Africa, we have a huge problem with this.”
Kenya
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Remittances are indeed a wonderful 'silver bullet' Africa |
“Remittances are indeed a wonderful ‘silver bullet’…our inward remittances have been accelerating to fresh all-time highs and speaks fundamentally to Kenya Inc.’s intellectual capital and monetisation thereof,” independent analyst Aly-Khan Satchu, who runs investment advisory Rich Management, said.
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07-MAY-2018 :: .@SafaricomPLC is a Need not a Want. Buy the Dip, add to the position if we react lower on the results #Twaweza Africa |
Let me loop now to Safaricom, which will be reporting its FY Earnings Wednesday morning. I don't need to remind you of Safaricom's centrality to the fortunes of the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Safaricom has a market Cap of $11.2b about 43% of the total market Cap of the Securities Exchange. Therefore, this is the Big Beast of Earnings Releases at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. After hitting a record high on April 5th, Safaricom corrected -20.00% through Friday morning. Citibank were surely the Catalyst with a sceptical Earnings perspective. Safaricom provided every Kenyan with an Entry Ticket into the c21st. Jack Ma last year posed the question when asked about the Infrastructure Gap,
''But what is the most important Infrastructure of them all? Its the information Superhighway and yours is fast.''
Safaricom is a Need not a Want. Buy the Dip, add to the position if we react lower on the results. Safaricom has built the Superhighway. Everyone else is still playing the tarmacking Game. You know what I mean. The roads around Westlands are the best example.
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.@SafaricomPLC share price data here ahead of tomorrows Full Year Earnings release #Twaweza Africa |
Par Value: 0.05/- Closing Price: 28.50 Total Shares Issued: 40065428000.00 Market Capitalization: 1,141,864,698,000 EPS: 1.21 PE: 23.554
H1 Service revenue 109.73b vs. 98.01b +12.0% H1 Handsets and other revenue 4.49b vs. 4.01b +11.9% H1 Construction revenue 0.20b vs. 0.08b +150.0% H1 Voice revenue 45.70b vs. 47.35b +3.6% H1 SMS revenue 8.92b vs. 8.63b +3.4% H1 Mobile data revenue 17.55b vs. 13.40b +31.0% H1 Fixed service revenue 3.23b vs. 2.40b +34.7% H1 Mpesa revenue 30.05b vs. 25.87b +16.2% H1 Total revenue 114.43b vs. 102.10b +12.1% H1 Other income 0.32b vs. 2.28b -86.0% H1 Direct costs [35.43b] vs. [32.50b] +9.0% H1 Construction costs [0.20b] vs. [0.08b] +150.0% H1 Other expenses [24.84b] vs. [20.99b] +18.3% H1 EBITDA 54.27b vs. 50.81b +6.8% H1 Depreciation and amortization [16.74b] vs. [16.35b] +2.4% H1 EBIT 37.53b vs. 34.46b +8.9% H1 Finance income 0.91b vs. 0.83b +10.2% H1 Finance costs [0.63b] vs. [0.81b] -21.9% H1 PBT 37.82b vs. 34.49b +9.6% H1 Net income 26.20b vs. 23.93b +9.5% H1 Basic and diluted EPS 0.65 vs. 0.60 +9.0% Shareholders funds 94.82b vs. 107.49b -11.8% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the half year 28.07b vs. 43.03b -34.8%
Company Commentary
Customer numbers +10.8% 2.5m at at 30th September 2017 Mobile Data Customers 16.9m +13.5% MPesa Customers 19.3m +9.5% Service Revenue +12.00% to 109.73b Voice service Revenue 47.35b +3.6% Messaging SMS Revenue 8.92b +3.4% Mobile Data Revenue 17.55b +31% MPESA revenue 30.05b +16.2% Non Voice service Revenue increased to 56.8% of total service revenues EBITDA +6.8% to 54.27b EBIT +8.9% to 37.53b Net Income +9.5% to 26.2b excluding one off adjustment in H1 17 Growth was 21.4%
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