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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 10th of May 2018

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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05-FEB-2018 :: Halcyon Days @TheStarKenya

Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successfuL

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice

If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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Classifying elephant behaviour through seismic vibrations

Seismic waves — vibrations within and along the Earth’s surface — are
ubiquitous sources of information. During propagation, physical
factors can obscure information transfer via vibrations and influence
propagation range [1]. Here, we explore how terrain type and
background seismic noise influence the propagation of seismic
vibrations generated by African elephants. In Kenya, we recorded the
ground-based vibrations of different wild elephant behaviours, such as
locomotion and infrasonic vocalisations [2], as well as natural and
anthropogenic seismic noise. We employed techniques from seismology to
transform the geophone recordings into source functions — the
time-varying seismic signature generated at the source. We used
computer modelling to constrain the propagation ranges of elephant
seismic vibrations for different terrains and noise levels. Behaviours
that generate a high force on a sandy terrain with low noise propagate
the furthest, over the kilometre scale. Our modelling also predicts
that specific elephant behaviours can be distinguished and monitored
over a range of propagation distances and noise levels. We conclude
that seismic cues have considerable potential for both behavioural
classification and remote monitoring of wildlife. In particular,
classifying the seismic signatures of specific behaviours of large
mammals remotely in real time, such as elephant running, could inform
on poaching threats.

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count the stars in these breathtaking photos of the night sky filled with sparkling stars in Tanzania! @PDChina

count the stars in these breathtaking photos of the night sky filled
with sparkling stars in Tanzania! The spectacular view was captured by
photographers camping under Mount Kilimanjaro. (Photo/IC)

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When Bowman first started jeeping across the outback in 2009, he was chasing the bright lights of the early universe @newscientist

When Bowman first started jeeping across the outback in 2009, he was
chasing the bright lights of the early universe. In the aftermath of
the big bang, the cosmos was full of hydrogen atoms, floating alone in
the frigid darkness

Political Reflections

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Israel retaliates after Iran 'fires 20 rockets' at army in occupied Golan Heights
Law & Politics

Arch-enemies Iran and Israel have appeared to edge closer to all-out
war after Israel’s military said its positions in the Golan Heights
were fired at with a barrage of Iranian rockets, prompting it to
respond with extensive strikes targeting Tehran’s forces across Syria.

The attack, if confirmed, would mark the first time Iran has fired
rockets in a direct strike on Israeli forces, dramatically ratcheting
up what has for years been a conflict fought through proxies.

Several but not all of the Iranian rockets were intercepted by Israeli
defences, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman, Lt Col Jonathan
Conricus, told reporters.

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#Damascus skyline a short time ago @Dannymakkisyria
Law & Politics


The Israelis have piled on the missiles over the last 48 hours.

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The JCPOA is the Obama administration's only tangible foreign policy success, so, for domestic political reasons, it had to be destroyed @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics

Breaking the unwritten rules of global diplomacy, the Trump
administration is now in violation of the multilateral Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, or in plain language the Iran nuclear
deal. Nuance is notoriously absent in what can only be described as a
unilateral hard exit.

All suspended United States sanctions against Iran will be reinstated,
and harsh additional ones will be imposed.

It does not matter that the International Atomic Energy Agency, or
IAEA, repeatedly confirmed Iran was complying with the JCPOA as
verified by 11 detailed reports since January 2016. Even US Secretary
of Defense James Mattis vouched for the stringent verification

Facts appear to be irrelevant, though. The JCPOA is the Obama
administration’s only tangible foreign policy success, so, for
domestic political reasons, it had to be destroyed.

The geopolitical consequences are massive. To start with,
strategically, Washington is isolated. The only actors applauding the
decision to rip up the deal are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

As Iran is a key hub of the ongoing Eurasia integration process, the
trade-investment partnership with both Moscow and Beijing will be even
stronger as Asia Times has reported.

The JCPOA was a dizzyingly complex technical undertaking. In parallel,
it is no secret the US establishment never got over the 1979 Islamic
revolution. The privileged roadmap in the Beltway remains regime

The real US objective – way beyond the JCPOA’s technicalities – was
always geopolitical. And that meant stopping to Iran from becoming the
leading power in Southwest Asia.

That still applies as seen by the United States Central Command’s
recent drive “to neutralize, counterbalance and shape the
destabilizing impact Iran has across the region…” Or, in Trump
terminology, to curtail Iran’s “malign activities.”

In a nutshell, this betrays the entire project which is to thwart the
Eurasia integration process, which features Russia and China as peer
competitors aligning with Iran along the New Silk Roads.

Predictably, we are back to the late Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s book,
The Grand Chessboard.

“…Potentially the most dangerous scenario would be an ‘anti-hegemonic’
coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances … a
grand coalition of China, Russia, perhaps Iran … reminiscent in scale
and scope of the challenge posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc, though this
time, China would likely be the leader and Russia the follower,” he
wrote. “Averting this contingency … will require US geostrategic skill
on the western, eastern, and southern perimeters of Eurasia

So, Trump has reshuffled the Grand Chessboard. Persians, though,
happen to know a thing or two about chess.

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The Art of the Regime Change. Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has one goal in mind - and no plan to achieve it. @stephenWalt in @ForeignPolicy
Law & Politics

Hawks see two possible routes to regime change. The first approach
relies on ramping up economic pressure on Tehran in the hope that
popular discontent will grow and that the clerical regime will simply
collapse. The second option is to provoke Iran into restarting its
nuclear program, which would give Washington the excuse to launch a
preventive war.

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The political leader who most resembles Trump is the late Colonel Gaddafi of Libya. @Independent's Robert Fisk
Law & Politics

The parallels are quite creepy. Gaddafi was crackers, he was a vain,
capricious peacock of a man, he was obsessed with women, he even had a
ghost writer invent a ‘Green Book’ of his personal philosophy, just as
Trump had his business manual written for him. Gaddafi was vengeful
towards his opponents but his views on the Middle East were odd, to
say the least. He once advocated a one-state solution to Israel and
Palestine which – in all seriousness – he suggested should be called
‘Israel-tine’. A bit like moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to

Above all, Gaddafi was completely divorced from reality. If he lied,
he believed his own lies. He believed that he kept his promises. He
believed in the world he wanted to believe in, even if this was
non-existent. His Great Man Made River Project was supposed to Make
Libya Great Again.

That’s why I most enjoyed Trump’s expression of love for Iranians. All
US presidents say how much they love the people they are about to
invade. Bush said the same about the Iraqis. So did Reagan before he
bombed Gaddafi’s Libya. Now Trump feels sorry for the “long suffering
Iranians”. Trump reminded us all of a time when Iran “prospered in
peace” and “commanded the admiration of the world” – and no-one has
spotted that he was referring to the Shah’s Iran whose Savak secret
police kept Iranians in a state of permanent fear and terror through a
programme of obscene tortures.

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Wow. Netanyahu wears the St George's ribbon as he comes to May 9 Parade with Putin. @yarotrof
Law & Politics

Wow. Netanyahu wears the St George's ribbon as he comes to May 9
Parade with Putin. Not even Serbia's Vucic has one. (The ribbon, a
symbol of Russian military glory, is also of late the symbol of
Russian irredentism and is banned in Ukraine.)

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After a gap of three years since the regime changed in Ukraine in February 2015, another color revolution is unfolding in yet another former Soviet republic in the Caucasus - in Armenia.
Law & Politics

The western media has tentatively named it a “Velvet Revolution.” All
the classic features of a color revolution are already visible in the
political upheaval. A middle-aged man named Nikol Pashinyan appeared
from nowhere to lead the campaign for regime change. He has promised
to protect human rights and crack down on the rampant corruption and

The western media enthusiastically began building up Pashinyan as a
cult figure. He started growing a salt-and-pepper beard three weeks
ago. Wearing a camouflage T-shirt and cargo pants, his photogenic face
under a military-style cap instantly draws a comparison with Che
Guerra on the billboards in Yerevan.

The wildly ecstatic youth – with a fair percentage of chic
middle-class young women – adore his manly looks and are joining
sit-ins in the city square in Yerevan against the backdrop of rock
music, with a live performance by the lead singer of the US metal band
System of a Down. The protests already wear the look of a carnival.
The authorities do not know how to handle the young revolutionaries.

Suffice to say, if the US gets entrenched in Armenia, it will pose
headaches for both Turkey and Iran, which are presently in
Washington’s crosshairs. The US already enjoys strong ties with the
Kurds inhabiting the region.

Equally, at some point, the regime-change project in Armenia is bound
to spill over to next-door Azerbaijan, which is also under
authoritarian rule. There is already a heightened level of western
attention regarding the geopolitics of Azerbaijan. Of course,
Azerbaijan would be a prize catch for the US in the great game in the
Caucasus. It is oil-rich and, interestingly, there is an ethnic Azeri
minority living within Iran.

Above all, if Azerbaijan is brought into the US orbit, Uncle Sam gets
to wet his toes in the Caspian Sea, which until now has been a de
facto Russian-Iranian lake. Indeed, fateful times lie ahead in the
geopolitics of the Caucasus, which has been a hotly contested region
all through history as surrounding empires competed for control –
Persian, Turkish and Russian.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1854
Dollar Index 93.03
Japan Yen 109.85
Swiss Franc 1.0040
Pound 1.3558
Aussie 0.7457
India Rupee 67.385
South Korea Won 1072.86
Brazil Real 3.5912
Egypt Pound 17.7607
South Africa Rand 12.5566

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USD/CAD oil overlay is compelling and suggest USD/CAD should be trading closer to 1.15 @fxmacro 1.2829 Last
World Currencies

Canada is a late cycle play as well with rising inflation and
commodity prices forget NAFTA and get long some CAD....huge kicker if
you ever get a NAFTA deal

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Gold 6 month INO 1313.00

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

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Africa is increasingly divergent. Straight-line projections and simplistic 'rise-and-fall' economics have never served the continent well. @dailymaverick

Just as growth prospects appear to be spurring a buoyant outlook for
the continent, Bloomberg’s annual Misery Index dampens the outlook.
This index, a measure combining inflation and unemployment, places six
African countries in its top 10 most miserable countries globally in
2018. South Africa, with arguably the highest rates of unemployment,
sits firmly in fifth spot. It was second, behind Venezuela, in 2017.

The World Bank’s annual Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
(CPIA) report, for example, found a 40% deterioration in the overall
quality of policies and institutions in African countries in 2016. The
deterioration increased from 2015 to 2016, and by 2016, the number of
countries in decline outnumbered those improving by a margin of two to

With the youngest population in the world, the median age in Africa is
less than 20. But Africa has, on average, both the longest serving and
oldest heads of state. Seven of the 10 longest-serving world leaders
are African. President Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea,
the longest-serving of all, has been at the helm for 38 years. In
2016, he won a fifth seven-year term.

Africa’s population is set to double by 2050 to 2.4 billion. The
continent’s under-18 population, already nearing 60% of Africa’s
total, could increase by two thirds to reach almost 1 billion by that
date. Currently, nearly 50% of Africans live in cities, seeking
housing, jobs and opportunities. This is an urban and demographic time

It is critical for African countries to post higher economic growth
rates (much higher) than their population growth rate in order to
boost employment opportunities and reduce poverty. But World Bank
figures suggest only some are achieving this.

For example, Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is home to almost 200
million people. Its population is growing at 2.61% per year, with a
median age of 18. But Nigeria’s economy is set to grow by just 2% in
2018. The implications of this are nothing short of disastrous.

Ethiopia and Ghana demonstrate the alternative scenario. Ethiopia’s
100 million strong population is growing at 2.46% per annum, and its
economy is expected to grow by 8.5% in 2018. Ghana, albeit with a
relatively small population of under 30 million people, has an annual
population growth rate of 2.18% and is expected to have the world’s
fastest growing economy in 2018, at 8.9%.

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07-MAY-2018 :: Africa Calling. @TheStarKenya

Of course, Africa is not a Country, in fact the Continent is seriously
non-linear, booms and busts quite often occur simultaneously. However,
what is clear is that the demographic surge, the overwhelming nature
of the numbers of this ''Born Free'' generation [Despite beliefs that
Millennials make up a large portion of the African population, they
are less than 30% of this population according to the 2017 estimates
by the Africa Development Bank. Africans aged 15 and below make up 41%
of the continent’s population. Those below 19 years old are at 51%. -
Geopoll] is creating a more homogenous African. The Arrival of the
Information Century, which started with the mobile Phone, then the
mobile internet triggered a process of binding Africans closer to
their Fellow Africans.

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Africa's desperate youth are getting high on opioids and anything they can get their hands on @qzafrica

The actual details of the death of a young man called “Kenneth aka
Dagba Junior” from the Lagos suburb of Ketu remain murky, but local
news reports are clear on the culprit: gutter water.
His friends say Kenneth had gone out for the night at a local hotel
and decided to indulge in the potent mix of codeine, tramadol,
rohypnol, cannabis and water or juice. While the mixture enhances the
enjoyable high of each drug ingredient, their side effects are also
increased leading to a very risky outcome.
Gutter water isn’t the only dangerous cocktail of drugs which a
generation of young Africans use to get their high or fix for
relatively cheap. Everything from lizard dung and cobwebs to petrol
fumes and rat poison are on the list of DIY drugs for a generation of
poor, disenfranchised young urban Africans who feel there are few
options for a better life.
With expensive illicit drugs like cocaine and heroin out of reach for
many unemployed young people, they’re turning to a range of cheap
options—and concoctions—to get high. The spreading addiction among
Africa youth to cheap synthetic opioids brought in from China and
India has had much press recently.
Tramadol, a pain relief drug, is flooding African cities including
Khartoum, Libreville, Cairo and Accra. Last week, Nigeria banned
codeine, typically found in cough syrups, following a BBC documentary
which showed that a thriving black market trade involving insiders at
some of the country’s biggest pharmaceutical companies.
Opioids are generally cheap and widely available due to unregulated
production: Tramadol pills cost less than a dollar and codeine syrups
sell for $3 in Nigeria. As a result, young adults are increasingly
reaching extreme measures in search of a cheap high.
Combining opioids with alcohol is a popular choice. The mixture of two
central nervous system depressants results in a wider effect on the
brain: codeine binds to opioid receptors while alcohol affects the
brain’s gamma-aminobutyric acid receptors. Both drugs interact with
neurotransmitters tied to mood, particularly dopamine and serotonin,
and result in the high.
More than availability and the creativity of youthful addicts, much of
the drug abuse culture is fueled by the inability of most African
economies to grow quickly and get big enough to cater to a bulging
youth population. High unemployment rates mean that millions of young
people in large countries like Nigeria and South Africa to much
smaller ones have few options and are susceptible to turning to drugs
as an escape. It’s a problem that will likely get worse with an extra
1.3 billion people set to added to the continent’s population by 2050.

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Here's what delegates at a @MoodysInvSvc conference in #Lagos today think are the biggest risks for African borrowers @Paulwallace123

Here's what delegates at a @MoodysInvSvc conference in #Lagos today
think are the biggest risks for African borrowers. They're not worried
about external shocks so much as homegrown ones.

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big ticket blow-up in any African country might all be the catalyst [Zambia looks a likely candidate]. @BDliveSA's @RonakGopaldas

According to Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based investment analyst,
"liquidity has so far muted political risk and concerns from some bond
vigilantes are that African governments are dangerously overloaded on
debt. Therefore this could well be the calm before a storm. The
question is what might trigger this pivot. A non-benign interest rate
structure, a sharp deterioration in the US-China trade war or big
ticket blow-up in any African country might all be the catalyst
[Zambia looks a likely candidate].

I think the rally has farther to go, that there will be more
granularity and pricing about African eurobond pricing, which has
become very homogenous and that we are at some point in the future
going to witness a big asymmetric downside move."

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Ghana's Cocobod seeking $1.5 bln from China's Eximbank- CEO Reuters

We have been in discussions since last year to secure $1.5 billion to
finance our plans, mainly to replant diseased and aged trees, build
warehouses and cocoa roads to improve farmers’ income, and also to
provide irrigations in the face of changing climate conditions,” said

Ghana, the world’s second largest cocoa exporter after Ivory Coast,
produces an average 800,000 tonnes of beans per year, with plans to
reach 1 million tonnes by 2020. But the country currently only
processes about 250,000 tonnes, Aidoo said.

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Ghana's Inflation Rate Declines to Four-Year Low in April

Consumer prices rose 9.6% from a year earlier, Wadieh say

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May 10th 2018 In a turbulent World, Safaricom is a ''must-have'' stock. @TheStarKenya

Global oil markets have been roiled by the widely telegraphed
withdrawal of the US from the Iran Nuclear Deal. Price of Brent Crude
traded fresh 2014 highs of $77.00 a barrel. Emerging markets have been
getting creamed. Turkish President is hosting an emergency meeting at
his palace as the Turkish Lira crashed to fresh all time lows.
Argentina raised interest rates to 40% but have dialled up Madam
Lagarde as President Lungu of Zambia will be doing momentarily. There
is every indication that the benign environment with lashings of cheap
money have now been terminated.

The IMF said the following
about one-third of Sub-Saharan African countries have declining per
capita incomes. @IMFnews
Six countries - Chad, Eritrea, Mozambique, Congo Republic, South Sudan
and Zimbabwe - were judged to be in debt distress at the end of last
The IMF’s ratings for Zambia and Ethiopia were changed from moderate
to “high risk of debt distress.”
Foreign currency debt increased by 40 percent from 2010-13 to 2017 and
now accounts for about 60 per cent of the region’s total public debt
on average, IMF data showed.
Average interest payments, meanwhile, increased from four percent of
expenditures in 2013 to 12 percent in 2017.

Thats the background to the biggest NSE Earnings release of the Year,
which was of course Safaricom [about 42.5% of the Total value of the
NSE] who reported pre-market opening this morning. The backdrop for
this earnings release was the slowest rate of GDP  increase in 6 years
in 2017, a drought, a credit crunch and not one but two Elections and
then of course the Resist-related Boycott. I have been attending these
Earnings Releases for a decade and it was good to catch up with
Michael Joseph [and we reminisced about when he launched M-Pesa and
today its making more than any Kenyan Bank] and many others. I
interviewed the Acting CEO Sateesh Kamath. It was also a pleasure to
hear Bob Collymore speak to the Audience from London.
Safaricom reported a +10.0% gain in FY service revenue which clocked
224.54b, FY Profit before tax increased +13.1% to 79.1b and FY Profit
after Tax increased +14.1% to 55.3b,which translated into  +14.05%
gain in FY EPS and a FY dividend increase of +13.4%. Free Cash Flow
exploded +27.304% higher to register 55.39b. Breaking down the revenue
streams, FY Voice Revenue grew +2.333% to 95.46b, M-PESA Revenue
accelerated 14.216% to 62.91b.

"Mpesa has been a growth engine. Whenever there’s a cash transaction,
we see an opportunity. Transaction value in 2017 doubled'' - Sates.

FY Mobile Data revenue surged +23.969% to clock 36.36b [Data usage per
customer grew from 269 MB per customer to 421 MB]. It really is an
Information Century and I expect the Mobile Data Curve to continue its
stellar Trajectory.

Full Year Total Customers increased +5.1% to 29.57m and if any one is
a beneficiary of the demographic dividend it is Safaricom.

Safaricom rallied +2.654% to close at 29.00 and traded 17.881m shares
worth 520.779m. In a turbulent World, Safaricom is a ''must-have''
stock. Sateesh closed out the Briefing by raising FY 2019 Guidance by
between 7%-12%. I expect the Economy to pick up momentum in 2018 and
Safaricom with it.

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@SafaricomPLC releases FY18 #Safaricomfyresults FY EPS +14.05%

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           29.00
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,161,897,412,000
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 21.014

Safaricom FY Results for the year ended 31st March 2018 vs. 31st March 2017
FY Voice revenue 95.64b vs. 93.46b +2.333%
FY Mpesa Revenue 62.91b vs. 55.08b +14.216%
FY SMS Revenue 17.72b vs. 16.68b +6.235%
FY Mobile data revenue 36.36b vs. 29.33b +23.969%
FY Fixed service revenue 6.67b vs. 5.24b +27.290%
FY Other service revenue 5.24b vs. 4.32b +21.296%
FY Service revenue 224.54b vs. 204.11b +10.009%
FY Handset revenue and other revenue 8.98b vs. 8.70b +3.218%
FY Total revenue 233.72b vs. 212.89b +9.784%
FY Other income 0.50b vs. 2.51b -80.080%
FY Direct costs [70.55b] vs. [66.78b] +5.645%
FY Contribution margin 163.47b vs. 148.54b +10.051%
FY Operating costs [50.61b] vs. [44.92b] +12.667%
FY EBITDA 112.83b vs. 103.61b +8.899%
FY Depreciation and amortization [33.56b] vs. [33.23b] +0.993%
FY EBIT 79.27b vs. 70.38b +12.631%
FY Net financing and FX losses 0.63b vs. 0.23b +173.913%
FY Earnings before taxation 79.71b vs. 70.63b +13.139%
FY Net income 55.29b vs. 48.44b +14.141%
EPS 1.38 vs. 1.21 +14.050%
Capital Employed 123.91b vs. 107.49b +15.276%
Cash and cash equivalents 9.50b vs. 5.96b +59.396%
Total Net Cash 5.46b vs. [10.58b] +151.607%
Free cash flow 55.39b vs. 43.51b +27.304%
Key Highlights for the year ended 31st March 2018
Customer numbers 29.57m +5.1%
Mobile Data Customers 17.67m +6.2%
M-Pesa Customers 20.55m +8.0%
Service revenue 224.54b +10.00%
Voice Service Revenue 95.64b +2.3%
SMS Revenue 17.72b +6.2%
Mobile Data Revenue +36.36b +24%
Fixed Service revenue 6.67b +27.3%
M-PESA Revenue 62.91b +14.2%
Non-Voice service revenue = 57.4% of total service revenues
EBITDA 112.83B +8.9% [excluding a one-off adjustment growth was 12.5%]
Net Income +14.1% 55.29b
Full Year Dividend 1.10 +13.4%
Free Cash Flow 55.39b versus 43.51b +27.3%


Strong Earnings, Look at M-PESA which made considerably more than any Bank.
Mobile Data a Stand-Out.
Voice still posting growth [demographic surge refers]
This is a rock-solid Franchise and its morphing into Digital Company.
And do not forget this was against the backdrop of an economy that
grew its weakest for 6 years.

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"Mpesa has been a growth engine. Whenever there's a cash transaction, we see an opportunity. Transaction value in 2017 doubled" #SafaricomFYResults | @sateeshkamath

"Mpesa has been a growth engine. Whenever there’s a cash transaction,
we see an opportunity. Transaction value in 2017 doubled. We’re
building the ecosystem to monetise tomorrow." #SafaricomFYResults |

read more

07-MAY-2018 :: .@SafaricomPLC is a Need not a Want. Buy the Dip, add to the position if we react lower on the results

Let me loop now to Safaricom, which will be reporting its FY Earnings
Wednesday morning. I don't need to remind you of Safaricom's
centrality to the fortunes of the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Safaricom has a market Cap of $11.2b about 43% of the total market Cap
of the Securities Exchange. Therefore, this is the Big Beast of
Earnings Releases at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. After hitting a
record high on April 5th, Safaricom corrected -20.00% through Friday
morning. Citibank were surely the Catalyst with a sceptical Earnings
perspective. Safaricom provided every Kenyan with an Entry Ticket into
the c21st. Jack Ma last year posed the question when asked about the
Infrastructure Gap,

''But what is the most important Infrastructure of them all? Its the
information Superhighway and yours is fast.''

Safaricom is a Need not a Want. Buy the Dip, add to the position if we
react lower on the results. Safaricom has built the Superhighway.
Everyone else is still playing the tarmacking Game. You know what I
mean. The roads around Westlands are the best example.

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Floodwaters in the coastal Tana Delta region of Kenya. Torrential rains have caused severe flooding across 32 of the country's 47 counties. Photograph: Andrew Kasuku/AFP/Getty Images

Heavy rains and severe flash floods have left more than 300 people
dead and displaced thousands of others across parts of east Africa,
with Kenya and Rwanda being the worst hit.

“We are concerned about the flooding that has displaced so many people
in Somalia, Kenya and Rwanda,” said Farhan Aziz Haq, deputy spokesman
for the UN secretary general in a statement to the Guardian.

“Our hearts go out to all the people who have been harmed by the rains
and flash floods,” he said.

read more

N.S.E Today

The Dollar has been on the rampage on the FX Exchanges but its gained
stalled today.
Emerging and Frontier Market currencies have been getting hammered.
Nerves are getting frayed.
Brent Crude Oil Prices crossed $77.00 a barrel, which is now at alarm
bell levels.
Delegates at a @MoodysInvSvc conference in Lagos yesterday cited the
biggest risks for African Borrowers as being homegrown ones and not
external shocks [Paul Wallace Bloomberg]
Ghana is in the Eurobond market today with a dollar deal. It's
offering a 10-year tranche with a yield in the low 8% area and a
30-year portion yielding about 9% [Paul Wallace Bloomberg]
The Nairobi All Share was sold hard and closed -1.617% lower to close at 178.25.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index retreated 29.87 points to close at 3635.76.
Equity Turnover clocked 752.857m

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom which rallied +2.65% yesterday after the release of its FY
Earnings, met sell side pressure today and retreated -3.45% to close
at 28.00 and traded 14.074m shares worth 395.333m. Safaricom served up
a mouth-watering set of Earnings, which spoke to a Digital Future [FY
Mobile Data Revenue 36.36b +24%,  and MPESA Revenue 62.91b +14.2%
[base effect refers]] which Sates [sitting in for Mr. Collymore is
clearly fully seized. Safaricom is +4.672% and is a Buy as early as
tomorrow particularly if we see a further price reverse during the

Interestingly and According to a report in the Hindustan Times, Bharti
Airtel Ltd. is looking to pare $4.6 billion from its net borrowings
over the next three years by listing its African unit.  India’s top
wireless operator plans to raise as much as $1.5 billion by listing a
quarter of equity in its Africa unit by early 2019 in either London or
South Africa, the person said, asking not to be identified as the
information isn’t public.  The twin deals will help the billionaire
Sunil Mittal-controlled carrier improve its balance sheet after net
debt rose almost 45% to $14.6 billion over four years as the company
borrowed to buy spectrum and defend its position against disruptive
upstart Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. The build-up, which came with an
eight-quarter-long stretch of earnings declines, has put Bharti Airtel
at risk of a downgrade to junk at both Moody’s Investors Service and
S&P Global Ratings.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank
closed unchanged at 51.50 and traded 2.249m shares. Equity
Bank as already signalled it has about $200m of firepower in the event
the Rate Cap is modified. Equity is +29.55% in 2018 and my price
Target is 60.00.

win was marked up +6.76% yesterday, reversed those gains to
close -8.544% at 14.45 and traded 210,500 shares.
Jubilee Holdings closed unchanged at 534.00 and traded 104,300 shares
worth 55.785m. Jubilee is +7.014% in 2018 and reported a +19.279%
acceleration in FY 17 EPS.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenGen according to its MD Rebecca Miano's Twitter feed, hosted
President Ismail O Guelleh at its Geothermal Fields in Olkaria. It is
no secret that Djibouti is also [like Kenya] sitting atop a meaningful
Geothermal resource. Djibouti surely represents an outstanding
opportunity for KenGen to vault our borders and expand geographically.
KenGen eased 5 cents to close at 8.05 and traded 732,800 shares.

ARM cement which has been in a Tail-Spin in 2018 corrected a further
-6.201% to close at 6.05 and is now -53.46% in 2018, but traded higher
at the Finish Line trading at 6.95 +7.75% at the closing Bell.

firmed +0.77% to close at a Fresh record High of 19.60 and
traded 1.227m shares worth 24.082m. Tanzanian billionaires Aunali and
Sajjad Rajabali [as per Business Daily] have muscled their way onto
the share holder register and now own 5.22% of the Oil Co. KenolKobil
is +40.35% in 2018.
Total Kenya rallied +4.379% to close at 35.75 and traded 251,800
shares. Total Kenya is +52.12% in 2018.
Both shares have performed well and beaten expectations but also
support is the Listing of Vivo Energy at a Price indication which is
lifting valuations here as well.

.@KenolKobil share price data here +40.35% in 2018


@totalkenya share price data here +52.12% in 2018


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2018

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