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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 02nd of May 2018
 
Morning,
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Interesting that Brazil, Russia and BTPs are of the best performing assets YTD @CNBCJou
Africa


Interesting that Brazil, Russia and BTPs are of the best performing
assets YTD despite: upcoming elections where frontrunner is in jail,
new US sanctions and no government, respectively ...

Home Thoughts

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Mariam Said on her husband Edward: He always liked the idea of beginning. You begin again. You don't end" Via @FT
Africa


“He once said that at some point one has to unlearn everything you
knew or believed or grew up with to be able to start again, to begin
again. He always liked the idea of beginning. You begin again. You
don’t end"

Political Reflections

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The Syrian airbase at the heart of a potential Israel-Iran war @guardian
Law & Politics


Isolated in the barren sands of central Syria and measuring five miles
across in some areas is the country’s largest airbase. A fortress
surrounded by hundreds of miles of desert, T-4 consists of dozens of
hardened aircraft shelters, hiding Russian fighter jets and supersonic
Sukhoi bombers.

Over seven years of conflict its runway has been blackened by the
rubber tyres of jets returning from sorties in the devastating war
between the forces of Bashar al-Assad and the rebels who have failed
to overthrow him.

T-4’s remote location and Soviet-era fortifications have shielded it
from much of the violence that has laid waste to Syria, though it
bears the scars of a 2016 Islamic state artillery attack that
obliterated four combat helicopters.

Today, the base is the focus of an emerging, potentially catastrophic
war, fought not between the Syrian regime and its domestic foes, but
two of the region’s most formidable enemies: Israel and Iran.

T-4 is where Iran has established a military foothold in its Arab
ally. According to Israeli officials, Iranian drones used over Syria
take off from the base.

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30-APR-2018 :: "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history."
Law & Politics


The Events that took place on Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom
and during the Inter-Korean Summit were breathtaking for the Hollywood
Optics. The Opening Shot of Kim Jong Un surrounded by a Phalanx of
North Korean Officials [later replayed as Chairman Kim sat in his
Presidential Vehicle surrounded by his Ninja bodyguards] was almost as
good as the opening Sequence in PT Anderson's Boogie Nights [Steadicam
operator Andy Shuttleworth]. This was Cinema of the highest level
which is no surprise when You consider that Kim Jong-Il the Father was
obsessed with Cinema and amassed arguably the world’s largest personal
film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies. Kim
Jong-Il also had a penchant for Hennessy Paradis cognac and for two
years in the mid-1990s, he was the world's largest buyer of Hennessy
Paradis cognac, importing up to $800,000 of the stuff a year.  Kim
Jong-Il began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and
agitation department and its clear that Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo
Jong who holds the same role and evidently handles all the optics, is
a chip off the old Block. Friday was tip-top Geopolitical Optics. Mike
Pompeo, the newly minted US Secretary of State [His predecessor was
fired via Twitter] had visited Pyongyang the previous week and
pronounced; that the young North Korean leader was "a smart guy who's
doing his homework"

Marwan Bishara was a little jaded by the Optics tweeted

''When pictures are the news and symbols are the facts, cliches become
truths and media turns into propaganda or BS''

''For now, We are short on facts long on images and hence any
perspective is likely to be speculative. Globally, we are being played
in a ‘game of nations’ which could produce more of the same or
different ...''

The smartness of the Young Chairman Kim was also seen in his
''impromptu'' move where Kim had Moon cross into North Korea, a
request which was apparently spur of the moment, impossible to refuse
but evidently planned. Its been a whiplash period, however.

Only in September last year, North Korea was in its ''Rocketman''
Phase, firing Rockets all over.

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola.  They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’ [Delillo describing the
Trajectory of a a rocket with the serial number “00000” in his book
Gravity's Rainbow].

And here we are now;

The message Kim Jong-un left on the guestbook: "A new history starts
now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history." This
Handshake Business has become a Malcolm Gladwell-like virus.

Moon asked Kim when he would be able to go to the North, and Kim said
"do you want to come now?," according to South Korea's presidential
spokesperson Yoon Young-chan.

The Question remains as follows. Kim Jong-Un can hardly forget what
happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, both of whom met their
Ends after being de-fanged. So my Question remains, what security
guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? that convince him to
denuclearise. Offering up bullet-proof security guarantees is the
equivalent of threading the needle.

Dollar strength of late has been sapping support for Safe Haven Assets
like Gold and the Yen. In the Event that Geopolitical tensions
continue to ebb, we should see both safe-haven assets drift lower. The
South Korean KOSPI INDEX is +1.01% in 2018 and has room to run higher
on a ''peace-dividend'' rally.

The issue is now what happens with Iran where the US President is
seemingly determined to upend an agreement he probably has not even
read.

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Trump doctor says Trump bodyguard 'raided' his office, took files @nbcnews
Law & Politics


Asked how he could justify saying Trump would be healthiest president
ever, Bornstein said I like that sentence to be quite honest with you
and all the rest of them are either sick or dead

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2003
Dollar Index 92.46
Japan Yen 109.74
Swiss Franc 0.9959
Pound 1.3612
Aussie 0.7504
India Rupee 66.675
South Korea Won 1074.54
Brazil Real 3.5065
Egypt Pound 17.7660
South Africa Rand 12.6573

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Commodities


Cocoa futures have surged 50% this year to $2,831 per metric ton in
New York on Friday.

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Gold 6 month INO 1310.50
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

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Who's got enough electricity to grow at a sustainably fast pace (via industrialisation or services) in Frontier and Africa? @RencapMan
Africa


Who’s got enough electricity to grow at a sustainably fast pace (via
industrialisation or services) in Frontier and Africa? North and
southern Africa including Zambia and Zimbabwe, South Asia and Ghana

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We had earlier said to boycott Bidco, Brookside, Safaricom, Haco and others. We now withdraw that directive @RailaOdinga Labour Day speech
Africa


We had earlier said to boycott Bidco, Brookside, Safaricom, Haco and
others. We now withdraw that directive. We forgive them and our people
can now do business with them  - @RailaOdinga Labour Day speech

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World Bank approves $180 mln loan guarantee for Kenya's energy sector
Africa


The guarantee will help in long-term commercial financing of up to
$300 million to refinance part of KenGen’s existing commercial loans,
enhance its credit quality and promote further development of
renewable energy in Kenya, the World Bank said.

Kenya has an installed generating capacity of 2,370 MW and peak demand
of about 1,770 MW. KenGen, which is 70 percent owned by the
government, has an installed capacity of 1,631 MW.

read more


Africa


The integration of M-Pesa into a chat service underscores how
technological innovation has become a central feature of the mobile
money story. When M-Pesa was established in 2007, it kickstarted a
mobile money revolution beyond Kenya’s borders, leading to its
adoption in 10 countries across Africa, Europe, and Asia.

read more



Home Afrika reports FY 17 EPS [0.44] Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:
Closing Price:           0.95
Total Shares Issued:          405255320.00
Market Capitalization:        384,992,554
EPS:             -0.44
PE:

Home Afrika Limited FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs.
31st December 2016

FY Revenue 262.788m vs. 222.187m +18.273%
FY Cost of sales [229.006m] vs. [160.276m] +42.882%
FY Gross profit 33.781m vs. 61.909m -45.434%
FY Fair value gain/ [loss] on investment property 60.829m vs. [8.646m] +803.551%
FY Other operating income 9.922m vs. 13.183m -24.736%
FY Selling and distribution expenses [38.682m] vs. [19.887m] +94.509%
FY Administrative expenses [169.054m] vs. [100.476m] +68.253%
FY Other operating expenses [29.538m] vs. [31.779m] -7.052%
FY Operating [Loss] [132.742m] vs. [85.697m] +54.897%
FY Finance costs [88.272m] vs. [121.310m] -27.234%
FY [Loss] before tax [221.015m] vs. [207.007m] +6.767%
FY [Loss] for the year [181.435m] vs. [168.458m] +7.703%
FY [Loss] attributable to owners of the parent [179.787m] vs.
[156.079m] +15.190%
FY [Loss] attributable to NCI [1.648m] vs0 [12.379m] -86.687%
[Loss] per share – basic and diluted [0.44] vs. [0.39] +12.821%
Total Assets 4.477828b vs. 3.930011b +13.939%
Total Equity [391.602m] vs. [210.167m] +86.329%
Increase/ [decrease] in cash and cash equivalents 11.654m vs.
[36.505m] +131.924%

Company Commentary

Gross Sales for the year to Dec 2017 increased by 8% to 921m from 849m in 2016
Above sales are largely booked as deposits for plots in the balance
sheet and will gradually find their way to the Profit and Loss
Statement upon full purchase price payment
Revenues +18% 263m versus 222m.
Cost of Sales increased by 43% 229m versus 160m
Migaa 48% complete versus 43%
deferred revenue and deposits from sales of plots grew from 2b in 2016
to 2.35b in 2017
book value of Group's sellable land and other inventory increased from
3.1b to 3.7b in 2017
We are hopeful that the process will be successfully concluded and the
funding committed to by strategic and other investors by end of 2018

read more


ExPress reports FY 2017 EPS [2.55] Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           4.95
Total Shares Issued:          35403790.00
Market Capitalization:        175,248,761
EPS:             -2.55
PE:

Express Kenya Limited is a Kenya based company engaged in the
provision of clearing and forwarding services for air and sea, as well
as warehousing and logistics services.

Express Kenya FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs. 31st December 2016
FY Revenue 50.323m vs. 62.817m -19.890%
FY Direct costs [45.210m] vs. [48.267m] -6.334%
FY Gross profit 5.113m vs. 14.550% -64.859%
FY Other operating income 7.155m vs. 1.856m +285.506%
FY Impairment provisions [3.322m] vs. [39.183m] -91.522%
FY Administrative Expenses [56.961m] vs. [42.488m] +34.064%
FY Other operating expenses [34.233m] vs. [29.892m] -13.566%
FY Operating [Loss] [82.248m] vs. [95.157m] -13.566%
FY [Loss] before tax [94.310m] vs. [112.007m] -15.800%
FY [Loss] for the year [90.349m] vs. [96.939m] -6.798%
Basic and diluted EPS [2.55] vs. [2.73] -6.593%
Shareholders’ funds [67.169m] vs. 23.180m -389.771%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [47.649m] vs. [47.938m] -0.603%
No dividend

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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