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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

He nabbed this particular shot of the bay on a still, clear night in
February. It was about 3:30 am, the tide was going out, and the Milky
Way was just beginning to rise in the eastern sky.

Apart from a few half-hearted and timid FONOPs [freedom of navigation
operations], China has established control over the South China Sea.
It has created artificial Islands and then militarised those
artificial islands across the South China Sea. It is a mind-boggling
geopolitical advance any which way you care to cut it

WASHINGTON — Three months before the 2016 election, a small group
gathered at Trump Tower to meet with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s
eldest son. One was an Israeli specialist in social media
manipulation. Another was an emissary for two wealthy Arab princes.
The third was a Republican donor with a controversial past in the
Middle East as a private security contractor.

The meeting was convened primarily to offer help to the Trump team,
and it forged relationships between the men and Trump insiders that
would develop over the coming months — past the election and well into
President Trump’s first year in office, according to several people
with knowledge of their encounters.

Erik Prince, the private security contractor and the former head of
Blackwater, arranged the meeting, which took place on Aug. 3, 2016.
The emissary, George Nader, told Donald Trump Jr. that the princes who
led Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were eager to help his
father win election as president. The social media specialist, Joel
Zamel, extolled his company’s ability to give an edge to a political
campaign; by that time, the firm had already drawn up a
multimillion-dollar proposal for a social media manipulation effort to
help elect Mr. Trump.

The company, which employed several Israeli former intelligence
officers, specialized in collecting information and shaping opinion
through social media.

However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo,
who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short
stories:

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

Yesterday Muqtada Sadr invited ambassadors of countries with borders
with Iraq, Saudi, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria, and Turkey. According to
sources in Baghdad the Iranian ambassador declined to attend because
the Saudi ambassador was there

ISRAEL HAS ONCE again conducted a premeditated, full-scale massacre in
broad daylight, in front of the cameras of the world. Once again, it
took place in Gaza.

On May 14, Israeli snipers and other forces gunned down more than 60
Palestinians, and wounded thousands of others, including civilians,
journalists, and paramedics. “You try nonlethal means and they don’t
work,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “So you’re left
with bad choices. It’s a bad deal. You know, you try and you go for
below the knee, and sometimes it doesn’t work, and unfortunately these
things are avoidable.”

. محمد بن زايد @MohamedBinZayed
https://twitter.com/MohamedBinZayed/status/998239573980471298

Lets start with the basics. New Economies tend to create their own
Lingua Francas and before you know it, we might be nodding sagely but
have become essentially clueless. And if we don't uberise ourselves we
might end up being ''Kodak''ed [Kodak, however, are seeking to
resurrect themselves from the Smartphone [Camera Phone] Catastrophe by
issuing a Kodak coin].

The First Term to understand is the BlockChain.

A blockchain is a continuously growing list of records, called blocks,
which are linked and secured using cryptography. Each block typically
contains a cryptographic hash of the previous block,a timestamp and
transaction data. By design, a blockchain is inherently resistant to
modification of the data. It is "an open, distributed ledger that can
record transactions between two parties efficiently and in a
verifiable and permanent way".For use as a distributed ledger, a
blockchain is typically managed by a peer-to-peer network collectively
adhering to a protocol for inter-node communication and validating new
blocks. Once recorded, the data in any given block cannot be altered
retroactively without the alteration of all subsequent blocks, which
requires collusion of the network majority. Blockchains are secure by
design and exemplify a distributed computing system with high
Byzantine fault tolerance. Decentralized consensus has therefore been
achieved with a blockchain.This makes blockchains potentially suitable
for the recording of events, medical records and other records
management activities, such as identity management,transaction
processing, documenting provenance, food traceability or voting.
Blockchain was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 for use in the
cryptocurrency bitcoin, as its public transaction ledger. The
invention of the blockchain for bitcoin made it the first digital
currency to solve the double-spending problem without the need of a
trusted authority or central server.  This means specific blockchain
applications may be a disruptive innovation, because substantially
lower-cost solutions can be instantiated, which can disrupt existing
business models.Blockchain protocols facilitate businesses to use new
methods of processing digital transactions. Examples include a payment
system and digital currency, facilitating crowdsales and generic
governance tools.[Wikipedia].

Here in Kenya, the application of the BlockChain to the Land Register
is a ''No-Brainer'' The Land Register would metasize from a situation
where it has more Holes than Swiss Cheese to one where it is 100%
tamper-proof. I have no doubt that the Blockchain is a Silver Bullet
but the question is how long the Incumbents can dodge the bullet.

The second term to understand is crypto currency.

A cryptocurrency (or crypto currency) is a digital asset designed to
work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its
transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to
verify the transfer of assets.Cryptocurrencies are a type of digital
currencies, alternative currencies and virtual currencies.
Cryptocurrencies use decentralised control as opposed to centralized
electronic money and central banking systems.The decentralized control
of each cryptocurrency works through a blockchain, which is a public
transaction database, functioning as a distributed ledger. Bitcoin
created in 2009, was the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Since
then, over 3,500 cryptocurrencies have been created.

The Entire cryptocurrency market was valued at $5.5b in January 2015,
$7.152b in January 2016, $18.34b in January 2017, $795.83b in January
2018, $249.15b on April 4th 2018 and was last valued at $379.83b. The
Price Inflation witnessed between January 2017 [$18.34b] and January
2018 [$795.83b] was the fastest price increase ever witnessed in the
history of mankind, even surpassing the Tulip Mania of 400 Years ago.

At todays prices [Cryptocurrency trades 24 hours a day seven days a
week unlike the ordinary markets which take the week-end off] Bitcoin
constitutes 37.38% of the entire cryptocurrency value, Ethereum
18.49%, Ripple 7.02%, Bitcoincash 5.37%, Litecoin 2.03%, IOTA 1.32%,
NEO 1.03%. Others 24.95%.

Now, when you see Price Inflation of the Type cryptocurrency markets
have witnessed it of course creates a fever of speculation and a whole
series of high-tech, pump-and-dump schemes. In the cryptcurrency
markets, its a serious case of Caveat Emptor. At Least 95% of the
current crop of cryptocurrencies are going to be worth 0.00. The
Winners, will produce an exponential parabolic return. To be a Winner
the cryptocurrency needed to be first like Bitcoin [which has a
limited and finite number] and maintain your credibility as the
pre-eminent crypto because Bitcoin is no longer about utility. For
example, The block time for Ethereum is set to between 14 and 15
seconds, while for bitcoin it is 10 minutes. The rise of Ethereum is
exactly around its utility and its Platform [It is the preeminent
''digital capital markets' ' platform for the Crypto markets]. Ripple
is seeking to disrupt the global wholesale money transfer markets.

Let me leave you with one final thought and that is velocity.

Paul Virilio said “Speed now illuminates reality whereas light once
gave objects of the world their shape.”

@BenedictEvans tweeted ''The difference in tech is that the cycle time
can be really fast - we went from IBM to Wintel to GAFA in 20 year
jumps. That has tended to mean dominance turns to irrelevance faster
than anti-trust processes can diagnose, pick a remedy and apply it''

Hamid Rashid the CEO of Finterra Blockchain said to me, ''What took a
decade to happen, is happening in months in this new BlockChain/Crypto
Economy''

And on that closing note I am going to have an Avocado, which seems to
be what a lot of Folks are wont to do these days.

Euro 1.1735
Dollar Index 93.83
Japan Yen 111.31
Swiss Franc 0.9994
Pound 1.3402
Aussie 0.7520
India Rupee 68.125
South Korea Won 1086.98
Brazil Real 3.7382
Egypt Pound 17.9418
South Africa Rand 12.8801

The Signal in the noise is the yield on 10 Year US Treasuries, which
Yield is around 3%. If we move to 3.5%, we could see a further round
of blood letting.

EM crisis spreading: #Argentina Peso has dropped another 5% this week,
South Africa Rand, #Turkey Lira, #Brazil Real almost 4%, and even
#Poland Zloty and #Hungary Forint got hit!

Argentina [which incredibly sold a Century Bond just last year] after
dialling up interest rates to an eye popping 40%, has capitulated and
dialled up the IMF’s Madam Lagarde. At this point in the cycle, the
IMF’s importance for many Countries cannot be gainsaid.

Frontier Markets

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.8801 [Rand at a 5 month low]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9418
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

#Nigeria's economy grew 1.95% year-on-year in the first quarter, which
was slower than expected. Bloomberg consensus was 2.6%. #Oil led the
way, with the non-oil sector barely growing (0.76%).

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +31.18% 2018
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Kenyan investigators have summoned more than 40 people for questioning
after a “massive theft of public funds” at the country’s National
Youth Service (NYS), the head of the directorate of criminal
investigations said on Sunday.

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           24.75
Total Shares Issued:          228055504.00
Market Capitalization:        5,644,373,724
EPS:             1.52
PE:                 16.283

Sasini Limited HY 2018 Results through 31st March 2018 vs. 31st March 2017
HY Revenue 1.504797b vs. 1.453444b +3.533%
HY [Losses] arising from changes in fair value of biological assets
less cost to sell [114.132m] vs. [44.025m] +159.244%
HY Results from operating activities 75.688m vs. 51.188m +47.863%
HY Net finance income 48.439m vs. 59.230m -18.219%
HY Profit before tax 124.127m vs. 110.418m +12.416%
HY Profit for the year 84.664m vs. 77.293m +9.536%
HY Profit/ [losses] arising from operating activities 163.063m vs.
107.909m  +51.112%
HY Gains/ [losses] arising from changes in fair value of biological
assets after tax [78.144m] vs. [29.932m] -161.072%
EPS on operating activities 0.72 vs. 0.47 +53.191%
Earnings/ [loss] per share on biological assets after tax [0.34] vs.
[0.13] -161.538%
EPS 0.37 vs. 0.34 +8.824%
Total equity 11.229498b vs. 11.315877b -0.763%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 1.621940b vs.
1.406876b +15.287%
Interim dividend 0.5

Conclusions

Production is set to surge H2

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +4.70% (-8.811% since record high of
196.57 set on April 5th)
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND