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Wednesday 30th of May 2018 |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice Africa |
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door I had to find the passage back To the place I was before “Relax,” said the night man, “We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! “ What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.
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@georgesoros : EU is in 'Existential Danger', US Policies Risk Global Financial Crisis @SputnikInt Law & Politics |
"This development [US withdrawal from the JCPOA] will put additional pressure of unpredictable force on an already beleaguered Europe. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong,” he said.
Soros proceeded to say that worsening US-EU relations are “bound to have a negative effect on the European economy and cause other dislocations. We may be heading for another major financial crisis. It's no longer a figure of speech to say Europe is in existential danger; it is the harsh reality.
Soros responded to these claims, saying "Viktor Orban based his entire re-election campaign on falsely accusing me of planning to flood Europe, Hungary included, with Muslim refugees. He is now posing as the defender of his version of a Christian Europe, that is challenging the values on which the European Union was founded."
"Brexit is an immensely damaging process, harmful to both sides. This divorce will be a long process, probably five years, which is an eternity in politics," Soros said on Tuesday.
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"In Africa, he wrote, the reasons for political violence included widespread fiscal crisis, the authoritarian nature of its states, and their rulers' penchant for preying on the public." Africa |
Don’t study the insurgents, study failed governments: “In Africa, he wrote, the reasons for political violence included widespread fiscal crisis, the authoritarian nature of its states, and their rulers’ penchant for preying on the public.”
Today Bates would like to see more of his colleagues approach contemporary political violence with a greater emphasis on the factors that lead states to breakdown. “Everybody in the academic world is looking at these insurgent groups—ISIS or al Qaeda and other groups—as if they were spontaneously assembling themselves. But they were the product of failing states. It was the way Syria was run or the way Iraq was run that made it rational for people to pick up guns and protect themselves and their families and their businesses,” he said.
“When I look at what my colleagues are doing they're still studying these groups sui generis—as in, you know, let's get inside them and see how they work. I hope somebody will do that but I also think if you want to understand where they are coming from, you have to step back in time and look at what drove people to that,” he said.
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Japan's plans to build a "Free and Open" Indian Ocean via @LowyInstitute Africa |
While many eyes are on China’s port investments in the Indian Ocean, Japan has also been busy. The scale of its infrastructure investments in the region rivals, and sometimes exceeds, that of China.
But Japan argues that its growing presence in the Indian Ocean is qualitatively different, focused on transparency, economic sustainability, and a rules-based order that should become part of regional norms. Australia must consider the role in can play in these projects.
Compared with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Japan’s investment activities in the Indian Ocean are barely promoted, and as a result its projects often fly under the radar. This obscures the fact that Japan has been very active in building infrastructure and “connectivity” across the region.
Indeed, spending on these projects is not too different from China’s spending on the BRI, which is sometimes inflated, double-counted, or based on vague future promises.
Japan’s “Partnership for Quality Infrastructure” initiative, first announced in 2015, involves infrastructure spending, over five years, of around US$110 billion in Asia. In 2016, the initiative was expanded to $200 billion globally (including in Africa and the South Pacific).
A list of recent Japanese-sponsored port projects (with approximate Japanese funding in US dollars) indicates just how active Tokyo has been in the Indian Ocean within the past decade:
Nacala, Mozambique – port ($320 million)
Mombasa, Kenya – port and related infrastructure ($300 million)
Toamasina, Madagascar – port ($400 million)
Mumbai, India – trans-harbour link ($2.2 billion)
Matarbari, Bangladesh – port and power station ($3.7 billion)
Yangon, Myanmar – container terminal ($200 million)
Dawei, Myanmar – port and special economic zone ($800 million)
Japanese projects involving the development of connectivity between the Pacific and Africa have now been rolled into its Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP). Japan’s regional strategy is essentially about providing alternative responses to China’s growing economic role in the Indian Ocean region.
American analyst Michael Green argues there is an important difference between Japanese and US strategies: unlike Washington, which often sees China’s role in zero-sum terms, Tokyo recognises that all the nations encompassed in the arc from Africa to the Western Pacific desire investment and sustainable economic development. This means it is essential they are provided with concrete alternatives.
Anxiety about China’s BRI regularly centres on concerns that Chinese-controlled port infrastructure might one day be used for military purposes. But there are other reasons to worry.
China’s approach to building infrastructure is frequently criticised as being non-transparent, non-sustainable, and exclusive. Chinese companies often construct infrastructure on a sole-source basis and then gain exclusive access to what should be common-use infrastructure. Other projects may be economically unsustainable, and host countries may be left with a major debt bill for non-economic projects.
Japan claims that its approach to building connectivity has some important differences with the BRI. Its strategy emphasises the Ise-Shima Principles endorsed by the G7, including safety, reliability and resilience, social and environmental considerations, local job creation and transfer of know-how, alignment with host country development strategies, and economic viability. The strategy also emphasises norms such as transparency and non-exclusivity.
The Japanese initiative also positions India as a key partner and Indian Ocean economic hub. This might seem obvious, but it is a gaping hole in China’s BRI strategy, which bypasses India. Indeed, it is difficult to conceive of a regional economic system that does not include India as a central player.
In 2017, Japan and India announced the Asia–Africa Growth Corridor as a joint initiative to build connectivity between the Pacific and Africa. While its financial resources may be limited, India can still play an important role. For example, Delhi used its diplomatic influence in Bangladesh’s decision to award the Matarbari port project to Japan. India and Japan may also partner in other future projects, including at Trincomalee in Sri Lanka, and potentially (subject to US sanctions) Chabahar port in Iran.
While Japan’s strategy clearly competes with China’s BRI, it does not exclude China. In fact, if strategic rivalries can be overcome, there is considerable potential for cooperation. Tokyo hopes that the principles espoused as part of its initiative will become norms for future projects in the region. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has claimed that he expected the BRI will incorporate “a common frame of thinking, and come into harmony with the free and fair Trans-Pacific economic zone”.
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Uganda Says Russian Company Wants Role in Crude-Export Pipeline Africa |
Uganda said a Russian company wants to participate in developing its planned crude-export pipeline by partnering with the local unit of GCC Services of the United Arab Emirates.
The announcement follows an intergovernmental meeting by officials of the two countries in Russia last week, Uganda’s foreign affairs ministry said Monday in an emailed statement. Another Russian company also wants to supply equipment for power stations generating between 2.5 megawatts and 60 megawatts, while RusHydro PJSC is also keen to invest in Uganda, according to the statement. The East African nation said it would consider the proposals.
France’s Total SA is the lead sponsor of the planned 216,000 barrels-per-day conduit expected to cost at least $3 billion. It’s developing Uganda’s crude finds of 6.5 billion barrels of oil resource jointly with Cnooc Ltd. of China and London-based Tullow Oil Plc.
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Ethiopia Already Is the 'China of Africa' Africa |
Will Ethiopia become “the China of Africa”? The question often comes up in an economic context: Ethiopia’s growth rate is expected to be 8.5 percent this year, topping China’s projected 6.5 percent. Over the past decade, Ethiopia has averaged about 10 percent growth. Behind those flashy numbers, however, is an undervalued common feature: Both countries feel secure about their pasts and have a definite vision for their futures. Both countries believe that they are destined to be great.
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