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Monday 11th of June 2018
 
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Macro Thoughts

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30-APR-2018 :: So my Question remains, what security guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? that convince him to denuclearise #TrumpKim
Law & Politics


The Question remains as follows. Kim Jong-Un can hardly forget what
happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, both of whom met their
Ends after being de-fanged. So my Question remains, what security
guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? that convince him to
denuclearise. Offering up bullet-proof security guarantees is the
equivalent of threading the needle.

read more




Read this Thread about the Photo -->>> @TFletcher
Law & Politics


This photo has rightly caught our attention. Partly the anger and
frustration that Angela Merkel's team must have felt to tweet it.

But more because it captures a moment of great jeopardy.

Moment of despair and sadness in Western capitals, including
Washington. Of incredulous laughter in Moscow. Of relief for world's
tyrants and despots.

Of reluctant acceptance that while we were busy building driverless
cars we ended up with a driverless world.

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In a matter of seconds, you can destroy trust with 280 Twitter characters: Angry Trump torpedoes G7's global world (trade) order @Schuldensuehner
Law & Politics


In a matter of seconds, you can destroy trust with 280 Twitter
characters: Angry Trump torpedoes G7’s global world (trade) order. US
president lashes out at Canadian PM for ‘false statements’ while key
advisers accuse Trudeau of back-stabbing.

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G7 in disarray after @realDonaldTrump rejects communique and attacks 'weak' @JustinTrudeau
Law & Politics


Donald Trump has left the G7 network of global cooperation in disarray
after he pulled the US out of a previously agreed summit communique,
blaming the Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau whom he derided as
“dishonest and weak”.

The US president, who arrived at the summit in Canada late and left
early to fly to Singapore to prepare for his summit with Kim Jong-un,
shocked fellow leaders with a bellicose press conference on Saturday
in which he attacked the trade policies of other countries.

The US had nevertheless appeared to agree a form of words on
contentious issues thanks to an all-night negotiating session by
officials from all sides.

But after leaving for Singapore, Trump tweeted personal attacks on
Trudeau and said that he had told his representatives not to sign the
summit communique, turning what had already been a tense meeting of
the world’s leading industrialised democracies into a fiasco.

“PM Justin Trudeau acted so meek and mild,” he tweeted. “Only to give
a news conference after I left saying that ‘us tariffs were kind of
insulting’ and ‘he will not be pushed around’.

“Very dishonest and weak” he claimed, adding in a separate tweet: “I
have instructed our US reps not to endorse the communique.”

Even for a presidency as capricious as Trump’s, his action marked a
new blurring of lines between his personal feelings towards other
leaders, and US government policy. It was also the latest example of
Trump’s use of much harsher language towards fellow
democratically-elected leaders of allied countries than to strongmen
leaders of enemy and adversary nations.

A few minutes before Trump sent out his inflammatory tweets, his
hawkish national security security adviser, John Bolton, appeared to
anticipate them by sending a tweet of his own, deriding the G7 summit
he had just attended.

“Just another G7 where other countries expect America will always be
their bank. The President made it clear today. No more,” Bolton said.

Bolton has been sidelined in talks with the North Koreans, but the
last-minute turnaround on the G7 represents a win for his
unilateralist approach to US foreign policy.

The tweets also represent a blow to the French president Emmanuel
Macron and the German chancellor Angela Merkel, who believed they had
brokered a deal to smooth over tensions on US-European trade.

The communique said the leaders of the United States, Canada, Britain,
France, Italy, Germany and Japan agreed on the need for “free, fair,
and mutually beneficial trade” and the importance of fighting
protectionism.

“We strive to reduce tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers and
subsidies,” the statement said.

But Trudeau, in the media conference that irked Trump, rejected a US
demand for a sunset clause in the North American trade agreement,
Nafta, that would allow a member nation to withdraw after five years.

“There will not be a sunset clause ... we will not, cannot sign a
trade deal that expires automatically every five years,” he said.

Trudeau said he had told Trump that the talks had been made more
complicated by last week’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian steel and
aluminum, ostensibly for national security reasons. Canada has
promised retaliatory measures on 1 July.

“I highlighted directly to the president that Canadians did not take
it lightly that the United States has moved forward with significant
tariffs,” said Trudeau. “Canadians, we’re polite, we’re reasonable,
but we will also not be pushed around.”

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"When the village idiot spoils your traps and upturns your syrup buckets, invite him to dinner. Then set him on the porch, afront the bears you lured to the yard."- Gordon Pinsent
Law & Politics


"When the village idiot spoils your traps and upturns your syrup
buckets, invite him to dinner. Fill his belly with venison, rye whisky
and butter tarts until the goose fat glistens on his chin. Then set
him on the porch, afront the bears you lured to the yard."~ Gordon
Pinsent

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MACRON CALLS OUT TRUMP: "You're not comfortable with an agreement signed by your predecessor, maybe just because it was signed by your predecessor" #G7Summit
Law & Politics


MACRON CALLS OUT TRUMP: "You’re not comfortable with an agreement
signed by your predecessor, maybe just because it was signed by your
predecessor, but don’t stop others from respecting it." #G7Summit

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Both Xi and Putin have been surprised and shocked by the rapidity of the U.S. decline." Axios
Law & Politics


Such spectacles feed Xi's and Putin's conviction that "the West is in
free fall," says Mathew Burrows, former counselor at the National
Intelligence Council, and now at the Atlantic Council. He tells Axios,
"Both Xi and Putin have been surprised and shocked by the rapidity of
the U.S. decline."
Burrows adds: "We’re descending fast into a Hobbesian world. Only the
U.S. think tank community believes it can restore the liberal
rules-based order: Such grand illusions!"
What this new world might look like: China's long-term vision is a
world structured within its various big infrastructure initiatives.
But Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, tells Axios that he does
not see Xi and Putin for now attempting to replace the post-war
multilateral architecture. He believes it will remain in place.
Rather, they are both looking for advantage from the mayhem —
separately, Bremmer says, because, notwithstanding Xi and Putin's
shows of bonhomie, "they don't trust each other."
"They both see opportunities, to be sure. Russia — to undermine the
U.S. and divide the West. China — to expand their political and
economic influence globally."
Bremmer's take: "Long term, China is the emerging superpower; Putin's
a master tactician but doesn't have a plan."

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How, I ask Assad would he like to be remembered in history? "It depends on which history"
Law & Politics


How, I ask Assad would he like to be remembered in history? “It
depends on which history. The Western history? it’s going to tell lies
and lies and lies. Our history I hope will remember me as somebody who
fought terrorists to save his country, and that was my duty as
president”

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My interview with #Syria"s President #Assad this week. @HalaJaber
Law & Politics


President Bashar al-Assad has launched a furious attack on Britain,
America and their allies, accusing them of deliberately prolonging the
civil war in Syria.

Dismissing Theresa May as a colonialist and a liar, the Syrian leader
claims Britain even helped stage April’s notorious chemical attack in
the suburb of Douma and that its actions are giving support to the
Islamic State terror group.

Today, in a rare and defiant interview, a man widely regarded as a
pariah for his repressive regime – and widespread accusations that he
has used chemical weapons – refuses to accept an iota of blame.

Instead, he places responsibility for the duration of the seven-year
conflict squarely at the feet of Britain and America. Western powers,
he says, should get out of Syria and allow the bloodshed to end.

Assad is in an outspoken mood – and believes he has good reason to be
confident. Today, for the first time in six years, his forces are in
full control of the Syrian capital while, thanks to the support of
Russian and Iranian allies, rebel fighters and IS are firmly in
retreat.

‘I have always said that in less than a year we can solve this
conflict, it’s not complicated,’ he tells me. ‘What has made it
complicated is the external interference. The more we advance, the
more support terrorists have from the West.

‘So, we think the more advances we make politically and militarily,
the more that the West, especially the US, UK, and France, will try to
prolong it and make the solution farther from the Syrians.’

‘We are fighting the terrorists and those terrorists are supported by
the British Government, the French government, the American and their
puppets.’

Yet according to Assad it is all a pure hoax, a deliberate piece of
fake news staged by Britain, France and America in order to justify
the later airstrikes. ‘The UK publicly supported the White Helmets
that are a branch of Al Qaeda,’ he says.

‘We consider the White Helmets to be a PR stunt by the UK. So yes,
definitely, it was staged by these three countries together and the UK
is involved.’

Today he insists no such attack took place, and claims this is
supported by the evidence of Western journalists who visited the area
and Syria’s own intelligence information. ‘It was a lie. After we
liberated that area our information confirmed the attack did not take
place,’ he adds. ‘The British Government should prove with evidence
that the attack happened, and then they should prove who is
responsible. This did not happen.’

‘Syria is very independent in its political positions. We work for our
national interests, we’re not a puppet state.’

Assad’s isolation from Britain is all the more pointed as he spent
time here in the 1990s, living in London and training as an
ophthalmologist at the Western Eye Hospital. London is also the city
where his wife Asma was born and grew up, the daughter of Syrian
parents.

He admits missing the city, but remains guarded. ‘I lived in London, I
learned as a doctor,’ he reflects.

‘It’s impossible for you to live in a city and you don’t feel there is
a special link with that city or with the people you work with.

‘But you live sometimes in contradiction; that the same city that you
like is the same country that’s been attacking your country, which is
not good.’

How, I ask, would he like to be remembered in history?

‘It depends on which history,’ he replies. ‘The Western history? It’s
going to be skewed; it’s going to tell lies and lies and lies.

‘Our history, which I care about, I hope will remember me as somebody
who fought the terrorists to save his country, and that was my duty as
president.’

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1808
Dollar Index 93.46
Japan Yen 109.98
Swiss Franc 0.9867
Pound 1.3432
Aussie 0.7608
India Rupee 67.335
South Korea Won 1074.86
Brazil Real 3.7093
Egypt Pound 17.8617
South Africa Rand 13.0180

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Thousands rally in Kinshasa for video link with exiled Congo politician
Africa


Exiled opposition leader Moise Katumbi used a video link on Saturday
to address thousands of opponents of President Joseph Kabila ahead of
a December election that many hope will end his 17 years in power.

Katumbi, a millionaire businessman and former governor of Democratic
Republic of Congo’s copper-producing Katanga province, is seen as the
opposition’s leading candidate in the election.

But he has been in exile since May 2016, when prosecutors accused him
of hiring foreign mercenaries. He was sentenced the following month to
three years in prison for real estate fraud. He denies all the charges
against him.

“I will return to Congo to end the suffering of the Congolese people,”
he told a rally, adding that he would form a coalition with the other
main opposition leader, Felix Tshisekedi.

Katumbi has repeatedly promised to return to Congo to contest the
election, and has yet to make good on the vow.

In a rare opinion poll published by New York University’s Congo
Research Group in March, Katumbi came out as the most popular of
Congo’s hypothetical presidential candidates, with 24 percent saying
they would vote for him, followed by 13 percent for Tshisekedi.

The same poll found 80 percent had a negative opinion of Kabila.

But Katumbi may be unable to run. Apart from the charges against him,
Congo’s attorney general at the end of March opened an investigation
into allegations Katumbi used to hold Italian nationality, which would
bar him from contesting.

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Africans fleeing war top list of world's most neglected, says charity @ReutersAfrica
Africa


- Six of the world’s 10 most neglected crises are in Africa, where
conflict has uprooted millions of people, the Norwegian Refugee
Council

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where years of civil war have led
more than 5 million people to flee their homes, topped the NRC’s
annual list this year. South Sudan, Burundi, Ethiopia, Central African
Republic and Nigeria also featured.

NRC Secretary General Jan Egeland said while Syria is the bloodiest
war in the world with millions displaced over the last eight years, it
is not considered to be among the most neglected crises as it is
receiving global attention.

Conflicts in Africa, he said, were viewed differently.

“Many displaced from these countries do not end up as refugees in the
Mediterranean, and are not visible for us in the north - so these
crises get too little diplomatic and media attention,” Egeland told
the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Over 65 million people globally have been uprooted from their homes
and forced to seek safety and shelter elsewhere - either inside their
countries or as refugees in foreign nations - largely due to violence,
says the United Nations.

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SSA region recorded an average hotel occupancy of 60.0% in 2017, from 59.3% in 2016. Hotels recorded an average ADR of USD 121.4 in 2017 while the REVPAR increased by 7.8% to USD 73 in 2017 @CytonnInvest #CytonnReport
Africa


The Sub Saharan Africa region recorded an average hotel occupancy of
60.0% in 2017, from 59.3% in 2016. Hotels in the region also recorded
an average ADR of USD 121.4 in 2017 while the REVPAR increased by 7.8%
to USD 73 in 2017

read more


Off to Kakuma Refugee Camp for the #TEDxKakumaCamp w/@alykhansatchu , Telga Loroupe & 🌍 Peace Ambassador & @TheStarKenya's cartoonist @ndula_victor
Kenyan Economy


Off to Kakuma Refugee Camp for the #TEDxKakumaCamp w/@alykhansatchu ,
Telga Loroupe the first African athlete to win the prestigious New
York marathon & 🌍 Peace Ambassador & @TheStarKenya’s cartoonist
@ndula_victor

read more


11-JUN-2018 :: A visit to Kakuma @TheStarKenya #TEDxKakumaCamp
Kenyan Economy


Raouf  Mazou of UNHCR who is a Friend and Deep Thinker has always
subtly jolted the way I looked at things. And whilst I was visiting
London, I received a Media invite to visit the Kakuma Refugee Camp for
a TEDx event. The Starring Cast featured the mesmerising Slam Poet Emi
Mahmoud, Mary Maker, a 24 year old Filmmaker Amina Rwimo from the
Congo, Georgina Goodwin the Photographer [making the invisible People
visible], Apurva Sanghi the World Bank Economist who worked on a
report about this camp from a Refugeenomics perspective "Yes" in My
Backyard? : The Economics of Refugees and Their Social Dynamics in
Kakuma.'' Governor Nanok who is quite cerebral and controlled, the
Hijabi Super-model Halima Aden and so many more. The Flight took
ninety minutes from Wilson Airport,which is a magic Portal into so
many other Worlds]. And as we drove through the town to the Camp and i
looked out at the passing landscape, it was green, you could see the
residue left by the flash floods and dotting the landscape tall
angular Figures and lots of children [none of whom had their hand out,
none]. To Kenya's credit and the likes of the UNHCR [which has done
the heavy lifting] Kenya is the second largest refugee-hosting country
in Africa (after Ethiopia). Of the more than half a million registered
refugees hosted by Kenya, 32% are housed in the Kakuma refugee camp,
57% in the Dadaab refugee settlement, and 11% live in Nairobi (UNHCR
2016). Kakuma refugee camp, located in Turkana County is at the
crossroads of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda and is home to 190,822
refugees, with South Sudanese making up the majority (52 percent) of
the camp’s population. The camp is also home to refugees from Somalia,
Ethiopia, Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Since
its establishment in 1992, Kakuma has hosted one of the
longest-lasting refugee camps in the world. Kakuma camp was founded
when In 1991, some 10,000 Sudanese boys walked into Northern Kenya.
Having first fled civil war in southern Sudan, undertaking a
treacherous journey to Ethiopia, war once again forced them to seek
refuge elsewhere; they had walked more than a thousand miles before
reaching Kenya, and Kakuma refugee camp would become their new home.

Last week, I learned that 1 out of every 100 of us is a Refugee and
displacement world-wide is at an all time high.

Caitlin Johnstone said ''the only real power in this world is the
ability to control the dominant narrative about what's going on''

in the West, the Refugee Narrative has been weaponised and the
consequences of that weaponisation is there for all to see. Note Nigel
Farage and his Brexit Advert with an endless line of Refugees queueing
to enter Britain. Note the resurgence of the Far-Right. Note Orban and
his language of existential threat by the Islamic hoards. The
linguistics around Refugees has become as much of a rat-a-tat machine
gun as it was for many of these Folks who were forced to flee at the
point of a gun. Interestingly, Mr Octopizzo identified this linguistic
''start-jacket'' and sought to break it with the characterisation of
his intervention as the ''Refugeenius'' Project. And there was plenty
of  ''Refugeenius'' at Saturday's TEDx event.

As you probably know, Turkana County is in the bottom percentile when
it comes to most economic indicators, though excitement has built over
the recent oil Finds and even Aquifer discoveries and this is taking
me to another observation. It seems to me where the disparity between
the host Community and the Refugee community is at its narrowest, the
net add is a lot easier to absorb, it actually produces a measurable
net positive gain. According to the "Yes" in My Backyard? report,

''The Gross Regional Product (GRP) of the Turkana region increases
permanently by 3.4 percent as a result of refugee presence.
Importantly, this increase is permanent. The effect on overall
employment is also positive: total employment increases by 2.9
percent. And finally, in per capita terms, though the magnitude is not
big, the “GRI per local person (GRIplp)” in Turkana also increases by
0.5 percent. These results, put together, suggest the refugee presence
has a beneficial impact on Turkana’s economy''

The report measures the Kakuma economy at $56m and therefore concludes
“Refugees have created more BOOM than Gloom“

I did not see many Adult Refugee Males. I saw many Mothers and
sub-adult children. I heard Thibaud Rerolle of Safaricom describe how
they had dropped in some super base Station from the sky for the
weekend into this most remote part of the World. And i thought to
myself, just network these Folks and see what happens. I would be a
big buyer of that $56m GDP number.

I am grateful to UNCHR for taking me to visit a part of Kenya, I had
flown over at 35,000 feet but set never set foot in. It was an
eye-opener and most of all if its resilience and a never say Die
attitude you are after, Its right here under our noses.

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Poets and models star at world's first refugee camp TEDx event in Kenya @ReutersAfrica #TEDxKakumaCamp
Kenyan Economy


Refugees turned poets, film-makers, models and teachers sought to
shatter stereotypes and inspire a global audience on Saturday by
sharing their stories of perseverance through suffering in the world’s
first TEDx event to be hosted in a refugee camp.

The United Nations’ refugee agency (UNHCR) said the event in Kakuma -
a sprawling camp housing 185,000 people located in northern Kenya -
aimed to shine a spotlight on the plight of refugees and challenge
negative perceptions and stereotypes.

“TEDx events are often in privileged settings so we thought about
bringing the power of the TED stage to a refugee camp,” UNHCR’s
Melissa Fleming told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

“We wanted refugee speakers to use this platform to tell the world not
just what they have gone through, but also show that they too have
amazing things to offer.”

There are at least 22 million refugees around the world, says the
UNHCR, mostly fleeing conflict, persecution or rights abuses in their
countries. About 90 percent are being hosted in developing countries
including Kenya in camps such as Kakuma.

The speakers included activist Riya William Yuyada, athlete Pur Biel
and teacher Mary Nyiriak Maker from South Sudan, Congolese film maker
Amina Rwino, and Sudanese poet Emi Mahmoud.

Somali American Halima Aden, an international fashion model who has
featured on the covers of magazines such as Vogue, was born in Kakuma
refugee camp and lived there for seven years.

Aden, 20, said despite sometimes not having enough food to eat or
being sick with malaria, she enjoyed a happy childhood.

Kakuma helped her gain a sense of community and respect for other
cultures, Aden said, adding that she wanted to change the narrative of
refugee camps as a place of despair.

“I want you to remember that although the children here are refugees,
they are children,” Aden said at the TEDx event.

“They deserve every opportunity to flourish, to hope, to dream, to be
successful,” she added. “My story began here in Kakuma refugee camp, a
place of hope.”

read more




"Yes" in My Backyard? : The Economics of Refugees and Their Social Dynamics in Kakuma, Kenya @RefugeesMedia
Kenyan Economy


The Economics of Refugees and Their Social Dynamics in Kakuma, Kenya

This report comes at a crucial time when the unprecedented global
refugee crisis, most notably in Europe and the Mediterranean, has not
only focused the world’s attention on the plight of refugees, but has
also led to the politicization of refugee influxes. With an average of
24 people worldwide being displaced from their homes every minute of
every day (UNHCR 2016), the debate surrounding the refugee crises is
on the minds of many, ranging from governments and policy-makers to
citizens, refugees, and host communities alike.

Worldwide displacement is currently at an all-time high as war and
persecution increase; one in every 113 people is now either a refugee,
internally displaced, or seeking asylum (UNHCR 2016).

To compound matters, developing countries such as Lebanon, Jordan,
Ethiopia, and Kenya are now hosting the largest share of refugees:
they are home to nearly 90 percent of the world’s refugees (UNHCR
2016).

Despite their economic promise and resilience, countries like Kenya
are becoming the unintended “shock absorbers” for the growing
conflict, insecurity, and weak governance in neighboring countries
(World Bank and UNHCR 2015). Kenya is the second largest
refugee-hosting country in Africa (after Ethiopia). Of the more than
half a million registered refugees hosted by Kenya, 32 percent are
housed in the Kakuma refugee camp, 57 percent in the Dadaab refugee
settlement, and 11 percent live in Nairobi (UNHCR 2016).

Kakuma refugee camp, located in Kenya’s northwestern Turkana County
and at the crossroads of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda, is home to
190,822 refugees, with South Sudanese making up the majority (52
percent) of the camp’s population.
The camp is also home to refugees from Somalia, Ethiopia, Burundi,
Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Since its establishment
in 1992, Kakuma has hosted one of the longest-lasting refugee camps in
the world, and refugees have been an integral part of Kakuma’s social,
cultural, and economic fabric.

 ‘Refugee economies’ is broadly defined as the resource allocation
systems relating to a displaced population. The concept is intended to
be holistic in attempting to look at ways in which refugees’ economic
activities are not simply reducible to livelihoods but are part of a
wider system involving consumption, production, exchange, and finance
(Betts et al. 2014).

In 1991, some 10,000 Sudanese boys walked into Northern Kenya. Having
first fled civil war in southern Sudan, undertaking a treacherous
journey to Ethiopia, war once again forced them to seek refuge
elsewhere; they had walked more than a thousand miles before reaching
Kenya, and Kakuma refugee camp would become their new home. Located in
one of Kenya’s most remote areas, Kakuma refu- gee camp has today
become the largest settlement in Turkana County, housing close to
200,000 refugees, almost 15 percent of the county’s population.

Although the dawn of man occurred over three million years ago in the
Turkana region,5 it has not exactly remained a beacon of economic
growth or technology development. Turkana County, the largest county
in Kenya, is also one of the country’s most impoverished and
marginalized areas, where literacy rates are among the lowest and
poverty rates, at over 90 percent, the highest (Sanghi and Onder,
2016). It also has a long history of chronic malnutrition and some of
the poor- est health indicators in Kenya (Human Rights Watch 2015).

change appears to be blowing; apart from dealing with the influx of
more than 100,000 people into Kakuma in the past five years, the
Turkana community is also dealing with recent changes in governance
infrastructure, including devolution, and the discovery of oil and
fresh water aquifers.6
Turkana County, whose capital is Lodwar, is located in a difficult
neighborhood (Figure 2). The county is bordered by Uganda, South
Sudan, and Ethiopia. The north- ern part of Kenya, including Turkana,
has suffered from increasingly severe droughts lasting for years

In 1992, following talks with the GoK and local leaders and elders of
the Turkana community, UNHCR formally established a refugee camp in
Kakuma in order to accommodate people fleeing the conflict in Sudan.
Kakuma, meaning the ‘place of the giant tortoise’, was a former
watering hole and communal meeting ground for the Turkana pastoralists
during the wet season. The Sudanese ‘lost boys’ were initially housed
in a temporary camp located closer to the Sudanese border in the town
of Lokichoggio. Their arrival, combined with a large inflow of Somali
refugees into East- ern Kenya, caused a significant shift in the GoK’s
refugee policy; it marked the begin- ning of the encampment policy
where, following status determination, refugees are obliged to reside
in a camp with their movement outside the camps being heavily
restricted.8 According to Werker (2007), camp economies are influenced
by host-country policies, such as restrictions on refugees’ movement
and work, as well as by the physical and economic isolation of the
site, and such policies have import- ant implications:

Are refugees a boon or bane? Benefit or burden? We present the results
of the economic and social impacts of refugees on Turkana (and where
relevant, Kenya) in three complementary dimensions: (i) The first is
the aggregate macroeconomic impact on Turkana’s economy (impact of the
refugee presence on Turkana’s GDP); (ii) The second is the impact on
individual markets (how does the presence of refugees affect
agriculture, housing, and livestock markets); (iii) And finally, we
present results from the social impact analysis.

The Gross Regional Product (GRP) of the Turkana region increases
permanently by 3.4 percent as a result of refugee presence.
Importantly, this increase is permanent. The effect on overall
employment is also positive: total employment increases by 2.9
percent. And finally, in per capita terms, though the magnitude is not
big, the “GRI per local person (GRIplp)” in Turkana also increases by
0.5 percent. These results, put together, suggest the refugee presence
has a beneficial impact on Turkana’s economy.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Shilling appreciated by 0.7% against the US Dollar to close at
Kshs 100.8 from Kshs 101.6, the previous week

During the week, the Kenya Shilling appreciated by 0.7% against the US
Dollar to close at Kshs 100.8 from Kshs 101.6, the previous week, due
to increased diaspora remittances. On a YTD basis, the shilling has
gained 2.3% against the USD

read more


Kenya Shilling appreciated by 0.7% against the US Dollar to close at Kshs 100.8 from Kshs 101.6, the previous week @CytonnInvest #CytonnReport
Kenyan Economy


Improving diaspora remittances, which increased by 56.6% to USD 217.1
mn in April 2018 from USD 138.6 mn in March 2017, attributed to (a)
recovery of the global economy, (b) increased uptake of financial
products by the diaspora due to financial services firms, particularly
banks, targeting the diaspora, and (c) new partnerships between
international money remittance providers and local commercial banks
making the process more convenient, and,

read more


For the February 2018 Eurobond issue, the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Eurobonds increased by 30 bps and 10 bps to 7.4% and 8.4% from 7.1% and 8.3%, respectively @CytonnInvest #CytonnReport
Kenyan Economy


For the February 2018 Eurobond issue, during the week, the yields on
the 10-year and 30-year Eurobonds increased by 30 bps and 10 bps to
7.4% and 8.4% from 7.1% and 8.3%, respectively, the previous week

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.@TransUnion Executive Forum on Banking, Panel Discussion @TU_Africa Video
Kenyan Economy


cc @naikl @owinobill @KenyaBankers's @jmosoro @KeEquityBank's @MnyagaW
Dr. Leonard Mwithiga of @KCBGroup @StanChartKE's Javed Chowdhury

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Kenya's National Budget for the fiscal year 2018/19, projected at Kshs 2.5 tn, is set to be read on June 14th 2018 @CytonnInvest #CytonnReport
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s National Budget for the fiscal year 2018/19, projected at Kshs
2.5 tn, is set to be read on June 14th 2018. This will be a 9.1%
increase from the current fiscal year’s budget of Kshs 2.3 tn. KRA is
expected to raise Kshs 1.7 tn, a 9.1% rise from Kshs 1.3 tn
previously, with the extra amount expected to be raised from recent
initiatives by the Treasury such as the imposition of fuel VAT
beginning September 2018, in line with the deal that Kenya made with
the International Monetary fund (IMF) in March 2018. The fiscal
deficit to GDP is expected to narrow to 6.0% from a projected 7.2% in
the 2017/18 financial year, which is in line with the International
Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recommendation in March as it pointed out that
the initial targeted deficit of about 8.0-9.0% was not sustainable.
The National treasury has budgeted a total of Kshs 97.7 bn, inclusive
of Kshs 19.4 bn in interest payments, to finance the USD 750 mn,
5-year Eurobond issued in 2014 that is set to mature in the year
ending June 2019. Including interest payments from the USD 2.0 bn 2018
issue, external debt financing in the 2018/19 fiscal year is estimated
to increase by 51.9% to Kshs 364.7 bn from Kshs 240.1 bn in 2017/18,
which will be 21.0% of budgeted revenues. Debt sustainability
continues to be a key concern, with the public debt to GDP estimated
to have hit 55.6% by the end of 2017, 5.6% above the East African
Community (EAC) Monetary Union Protocol, the World Bank Country Policy
and Institutional Assessment Index, and the IMF threshold of 50.0%.
Following the recent recommendation by the CBK governor, that the
country should shift its focus to other non-debt financing
arrangements such as public private partnership to fund
infrastructural projects, we expect increased measures to improve debt
management going forward. We don’t expect the budget to significantly
differ from the estimates provided in the 2018 BPS and shall provide a
detailed breakdown in next week’s report, once the budget is
officially released.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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