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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 21st of June 2018
 
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Spectacular visit of Ngong Hills #Windfarm with long term partner @KenGenKenya, another illustration of Kenyan extraordinary clean energy mix !
Africa


Spectacular visit of Ngong Hills #Windfarm with long term partner
@KenGenKenya, another illustration of Kenyan extraordinary clean
energy mix ! Stay tuned : new announcement to come soon with @AFD_en

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I had a farm in Africa at the foot of the Ngong Hills. The Equator runs across these highlands
Africa


I had a farm in Africa at the foot of the Ngong Hills. The Equator
runs across these highlands, a hundred miles to the north, and the
farm lay at an altitude of over six thousand feet. In the day-time you
felt that you had got high up; near to the sun, but the early mornings
and evenings were limpid and restful, and the nights were cold.

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"But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola."
Africa


“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo knows the importance of rare earth elements, and North Korea has reportedly found one of the world's biggest deposits 150km from Pyongyang
Law & Politics


US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo knows the importance of rare earth
elements, and North Korea has reportedly found one of the world's
biggest deposits 150km from Pyongyang; is this another factor behind
the recent thaw with the US?

Currently, China is believed to control over 95% of global production
of rare earth metals, with an estimated 55 million tons in deposits.
North Korea for its part holds at least 20 million tons.

Way apart from a Netflix-style plot twist, a quite possible narrative
is Pompeo impressing on Kim the beauty of a sweet, US-brokered rare
earth elements deal. But China and Russia must be locked out. Or else.

As much as the Trump administration may be late in the game, it’s
unthinkable Washington would abandon a piece of the (metal) action.

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.@POTUS: "If you're weak, which some people would like you to be - if you're really, really pathetically weak, the country's going to be over-run with millions of people" @FoxNews
Law & Politics


.@POTUS: "If you're weak, which some people would like you to be - if
you're really, really pathetically weak, the country's going to be
over-run with millions of people. And if you're strong, then you don't
have any heart. That's a tough dilemma. Perhaps I'd rather be strong."

read more


Trump is 'vice-signalling' over immigration - and it's going to work @spectator
Law & Politics


The stories are filed, the pictures are posted, and the media verdict
is almost unanimous: separating children from their parents is wrong,
it is unAmerican, and President Donald Trump is going to suffer for
it. His administration is baby-snatching. The ‘optics’ are terrible,
say the hyperventilating PR men and Washington know-alls.

But if everybody stops to breathe for a moment, they should stop to
recognise that, on this issue, as on so much else, Donald Trump is
winning the politics.

Call it vice-signalling. The President and Kirstjen Nielsen are making
clear that, even if it means being seen to be inhuman, they are taking
voter concerns about massive immigration seriously. There is a clear
political upside to this, despite – or because of – the negative
headlines. ‘Zero tolerance’ on illegal immigration is popular, even if
some of the unpleasant consequences are not.

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The difference in loan default rates between iPhone and Android owners "is equivalent to the difference in default rates between a median FICO score and the 80th percentile of the FICO score."
Law & Politics


NEW!!! #PanamaPapers 🌴🇵🇦: THE AFTERMATH. Two years after the Panama
Papers investigation, a fresh document leak from #MossackFonseca
reveals the aftermath

http://bit.ly/2tqlUkS

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1550
Dollar Index 95.28
Japan Yen 110.60
Swiss Franc 0.9967
Pound 1.3133
Aussie 0.7366
India Rupee 68.13
South Korea Won 1113.83
Brazil Real 3.7710
Egypt Pound 17.8699
South Africa Rand 13.7570

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14-MAY-2018 :: At this point in the cycle, the IMF's importance for many Countries cannot be gainsaid
Emerging Markets


At this point in the cycle, the IMF's importance for many Countries
cannot be gainsaid. Turkey's Lira crashed to all time Lows. Countries
that have been flying by the seat of their pants are now being caught
with their pants down. This has all the ingredients for baking a good
old fashioned crisis.

Frontier Markets

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How long before the world's youngest continent revolts? @dlknowles
Africa


Makoko, a neighbourhood in Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city, is a place
that has become famous for its misery. It is a sort of floating slum
underneath the Third Mainland Bridge, a 12km stretch of concrete that
connects Lagos’s islands to the rest of the city.

Once a fishing village, over the years, thousands of shacks have been
built in Makoko on land reclaimed from the bay by filling it with
rubbish. People live in them, crowded six to a room. There is no
running water, so hundreds of people make a living hauling in plastic
containers filled from boreholes on the mainland. Children are bathed
outside in buckets. Electricity is provided by generators, which gives
the air the tinny taste of diesel. The alleyways reek of human shit.

The Lagos State government has been trying to get rid of Makoko for
years. They send in bulldozers to tear down the shacks and clear the
land for developers. But it never stays cleared for long. The slum
grows out into the bay, new shacks built with wood are floated onto
the water. People keep coming, drawn to the urban jungle by the hope –
however slim – of making it big.

Nobody knows how many people live there, but it could be as many as
250,000. Sixty years ago, that was the entire population of Lagos. Now
it’s a sprawling, filthy, unnavigable megacity of perhaps 17 million.
People overwhelm its every space. They make their homes where they
can: beneath underpasses; in derelict buildings; anywhere without the
thuggish security guards the rich hire to keep them out.

Africa is the world’s youngest continent. Between the Sahara and South
Africa, in most countries, a majority of the population are children.
In only a few countries is the median age higher than 20. This is not
because people die young –for the most part, they don’t any more. It
is the result of an enormous population boom.

In 1960, the entire population of sub-Saharan Africa was around 230
million people. Today, it is roughly 1 billion. According to the
United Nations, by the middle of this century, it could well reach 2
billion. In 50 years or so, more than half of the world’s entire
population growth will be in Africa. Two fifths of the world’s
population will live on the continent. A couple of generations ago,
sub-Saharan Africa had no cities with populations bigger than 1
million people. Today it has dozens.

Obviously population projections are just that: projections. But if
they are even halfway right, then surely the the 22nd century will be
Africa’s. Nowhere else on the planet is so young or so alive. Not a
single European Union country has a fertility rate that is higher than
the replacement rate; of the rich world club, the OECD, only three
countries, Israel, Turkey and Mexico do.

In the West, our countries continue to grow because life expectancy is
going up, and thanks to immigration. Eventually, since we all must
die, they will start shrinking. By the end of the century, African
babies will be a majority of those born. Africa could even be the only
continent with a growing population.

So what does this mean? The more optimistic business people I meet at
conferences like to talk happily of a ‘demographic dividend’ that will
make them lots of money. Lots of Africans means a growing market after
all; Africa will have something the rest of the world will lack:
youth. Well, perhaps. But the trouble is that Africa is not getting
richer – at least not fast. Just 10% of the world’s population now
lives below the World Bank’s poverty line of $1.90, down from 35% in
1990. But Africa is the exception. Over that same period, the number
of extremely poor on the continent went up by almost 50million.

So what we have is a huge, poor, young population. And they are not
the fly-bitten, ignorant victims of famine we in the West grew up
seeing on our televisions. They are urbanised, increasingly speak
English and French, addicted to their mobile phones. And they are
ambitious.

I met one Nigerian in Lagos who earned perhaps $10 a day running a
streetside photocopier stall and he spent half of that on a night
class in economics. In Kenyan slums, people ask me for my opinion on
how Brexit is going. On a ferry on Lake Tanganyika, 1,000km from the
nearest international airport, a young ginger (the root) trader asked
me if I could help him get business books so that he could learn to be
a tycoon.

But if it has no means of being realised, is this ambition really a
boon? Young Africans know that they are getting a raw deal. They are
cynical about politics and angry.

Western governments fear that this huge, poor, continent is a bomb
waiting to explode underneath Europe. Thousands, of frustrated young
men are already making the journey westwards – in rickety boats from
Libya. But what if millions did?

In the 1990s and early 2000s, politicians talked about Arica in
patronising terms, fueled by a vague post-colonial guilt. “Africa is a
scar on the conscience of the world”, said Tony Blair in 2004. Today,
European leaders are more hard-nosed. Colonialism was generations ago,
argues Emmanuel Macron. Instead of clawing over the past (or, like
previous French presidents, trying to resurrect it), he is instead
obsessed with making sure that Africa’s problems do not spread to
Europe.

But it is not just the consequences for the rich in Europe that should
concern us. In the 1960s, the American sociologist, Paul R. Ehrlich
predicted that a “population bomb” in Asia would lead to mass
starvation. He got it hopelessly wrong, and such Malthusianism has
gone out of fashion. Famines, we realise now, are mostly caused by
politics – not food shortages – and as a result they are now less
common.

But has that fostered complacency? Africa today is actually less
self-sufficient in food than ever before. That is despite some fairly
impressive improvements in agricultural yields. There are just too
many people, and, perversely, for such a huge continent, not enough
fertile land. The shortage is fueling violent conflict between farmers
and nomadic herders from Nigeria’s Middle Belt through to Kenya’s
northern rangelands.

During my travels across Africa over the past three years, I have
begun to wonder if things might not get much worse before they get
better. To make a fairly gross generalisation, in most African
countries, politics is still more about how to share the existing
wealth between an elite than it is about how to grow it for everybody.

To make sure that they get as much space at the trough as possible,
politicians will stop at nothing, whipping up ethnic tension and
division; stealing, bribing and threatening their way into office. In
places where there is not a strong state, what persists instead is
what the academic Alex de Waal calls “political entrepreneurship”.
Politicians are essentially day traders, arbitraging between violence
and money to gain power.

Last year, covering the Kenyan election, I arrived (by car) at a
village in the Rift Valley where the president, Uhuru Kenyatta, was
hosting a rally. The population could not have been more than a few
thousands, and yet there were no less than four helicopters involved
in shuttling Mr Kenyatta, his deputy and other dignitaries to the
site. Renting a helicopter costs around $2,000 an hour in Kenya, so
just in transport costs that rally probably cost as much as the entire
village makes in a week.

It is obscene, but unfortunately, it seems to work: Mr Kenyatta did
well in the Rift Valley. It is not that Kenyan voters are dupes. They
know politicians are crooks. But then everyone is a crook, so they
vote hoping that at the very least, maybe their crook will get in and
sprinkle down some of the goodies.

Where are the factories, the call centres, the big firms which could
actually give jobs and hope to the frustrated young people?
Urbanisation ought to provide hope and industrialisation but it is not
doing enough: most African cities are like smaller versions of Lagos.

People live in dysfunctional slums, where the only jobs are servicing
the whims of elite. They work extremely hard just to survive. Water is
carried; electricity is absent; food is cooked over open fires;
disease is kept in check largely by cheap antibiotics. Meanwhile, the
African rich opt out. They cope with potholes by driving Land
Cruisers. When they get sick, they fly to Europe. Their children are
educated at the best schools in the West.

If you were a young African, would you put up with that? Or would you
revolt? And what happens then? At some point in the next few decades
we are going to find out.

read more


10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa
Africa


What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun

read more


BREAKING: PRESIDENT ISAIAS ANNOUNCES ERITREA TO DISPATCH DELEGATION TO ETHIOPIA
Africa


Addis Abeba, June 2018 – Eritrea’s president announced “today that
Eritrea shall dispatch delegation to Addis Abeba to a constructive
engagement with Ethiopia,” Estifanos Habtemariam, Eritrea’s Ambassador
to Japan, said on twitter. President Isaias Afewerki made the remarks
during the Martyrs Day celebrations today.

“We will send a delegation to Addis Abeba to gauge current
developments directly and in depth and to chart out a plan for
continuous future action,” President Isaias said, adding, “The events
and developments that have unfolded in our region in general and in
Ethiopia in particular in the recent period warrant appropriate
attention.”

The announcement brings to an end Eritrea’s silence since June 05 when
the 36 Executive Committee members of the ruling EPRDF said in a
statement that Ethiopia will fully accept the December 12, 2000
Algiers Agreement, a peace agreement between the governments of
Eritrea and Ethiopia, which established the Ethiopia Eritrea boundary
commission (EEBC). By accepting the Algiers Agreement, Ethiopia also
said it was ready to comply with the “final and binding” decision by
the EEBC, which, among others, awarded the town of Badme, the
flashpoint of the two years costly border war, to Eritrea.

read more



Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is moving so fast everything around him looks static and wooden
Africa


Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is moving so fast everything around him
looks static and wooden Matters #Ethiopia  "The ppl of Tigray are
still begging for a drop of water; TPLF [the party[ is not the people
of Tigray"

read more





Around 1/5 of #trade in #EastAfrica is intra-regional, indicating the high level of integration in the #EAC @EcobankResearch
Africa


Around 1/5 of #trade in #EastAfrica is intra-regional, indicating the
high level of integration in the #EAC and the diversity of the export
base (hard & soft commodities, capital goods & #FMCG).

read more


StanChart Sees Africa Making Bigger Contribution Over Time
Africa


Standard Chartered Plc expects Africa to account for a bigger slice of
revenue if the region is able to put in place policies that will
further spur economic growth, Chairman Jose Vinals said.

“If they do the right thing, they’ll grow faster than other countries
which are more advanced,” he said in an interview in Lagos, Nigeria’s
commercial capital, on Tuesday night. “This will help Africa
contribute more to the group, but for that to happen, the future needs
to become the present. We are starting to see positive signs.”

The African region makes up about 10 percent of the London-based
lender’s revenue, while Nigeria, Kenya and the United Arab Emirates
fall within Standard Chartered’s top 10 markets in terms of operating
profit, according to the chairman.

“My hope is that Africa breaks with some of the constraints that have
prevented its sustained growth,” Vinals said. “For that, there is need
for policies to strengthen institutions.”

The continent is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies
-- with the International Monetary Fund projecting Ethiopia will
expand 10.9 percent this year -- although output is often sensitive to
changes in commodity prices or hindered by political changes,
corruption, burdensome regulations or unclear policies.

The lender is experimenting with a digital-only bank in Ivory Coast,
which, if successful, will be replicated in other African markets over
the next 12 to 15 months, the chairman said.

“Digital through mobile is something which is fundamental, not just
for efficiency and economic progress but also for financial
inclusion,” Vinals said.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg -4.79% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.7570

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.95% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +13.61% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Abraaj agrees to sell big chunk of its fund business to Colony Capital
Africa


“The appointment of the joint provisional liquidators and the start of
the process of restructuring this business that we operated across
diverse markets is a moment of introspection, but also one of
satisfaction," said Arif Naqvi, founder of Abraaj. Rodrigo Arangua/AFP

The Abraaj Group said on Thursday it has agreed to sell a big chunk of
its fund business to US investment management firm Colony Capital as a
Cayman Islands court oversees the restructuring of the embattled
private equity firm.

Colony Capital will acquire Abraaj's “Latin America, Sub Saharan
Africa, North Africa and Turkey Funds management business and its
Limited Partnership interests in the underlying Funds, along with
staff in the eight offices being transferred under the terms of the
deal,” the private equity firm said in a statement, without disclosing
the value of the deal.

“Colony has also agreed to oversee, on an interim basis, other Group
Funds that are not being acquired so that the Group and all its
stakeholders have a comprehensive global solution in place.”

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.62% 2018 (-13.446% since record high of
196.57 set on April 5th)

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.55% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

read more


In Kenya, out of 6.5M active (unique) digital credit borrowers, 3.5M (53.8%) have a default listing at the bureau with a risk of being financially excluded again. @CGAP @owinobill
Kenyan Economy


That's right. We need to also look at the other side of the coin. In
Kenya, out of 6.5M active (unique) digital credit borrowers, 3.5M
(53.8%) have a default listing at the bureau with a risk of being
financially excluded again. @CGAP

read more





 
 
N.S.E Today


I agree with Ray Dalio who said ''Trump is playing chicken with China.
It will be important and telling to see how this plays out.''
In an interesting Plot Twist Asia Times's Pepe Escobar is speculating
that the ''US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo knows the importance of
rare earth elements, and North Korea has reportedly found one of the
world's biggest deposits 150km from Pyongyang; is this another factor
behind the recent thaw with the US?''
Escobar adds Currently, China is believed to control over 95% of
global production of rare earth metals, with an estimated 55 million
tons in deposits. North Korea for its part holds at least 20 million
tons.
The Dollar is at a 2018 High and trades punchy particularly against
Emerging markets currencies which have been getting slammed.
The IMF board approved Argentina's $50 billion stand-by arrangement.
On the 14-MAY-2018 :: I said ''At this point in the cycle, ''the IMF's
importance for many Countries cannot be gainsaid.. Countries that have
been flying by the seat of their pants are now being caught with their
pants down. This has all the ingredients for baking a good old
fashioned crisis''
“The events and developments that have unfolded in our region in
general and in Ethiopia in particular in the recent period warrant
appropriate attention.” said the reclusive and reticent Eritrean
Leader as he dispatches a delegation to Addis Ababa.
The Standard Chartered Chairman Jose Vinals said the following to Bloomberg
Standard Chartered Plc expects Africa to account for a bigger slice of
revenue if the region is able to put in place policies that will
further spur economic growth,
“If they do the right thing, they’ll grow faster than other countries
which are more advanced,” he said in an interview in Lagos, Nigeria’s
commercial capital, on Tuesday night. “This will help Africa
contribute more to the group, but for that to happen, the future needs
to become the present. We are starting to see positive signs.”
The lender is experimenting with a digital-only bank in Ivory Coast,
which, if successful, will be replicated in other African markets over
the next 12 to 15 months, the chairman said.
It was a pleasure visiting the Ngong Hills Wind Farm yesterday with
KenGen and with the French Development Agency. Today the AFD is
signing a 60m Euro loan in order to fund the Meru Wind Farm in
conjunction with KFW who are also chipping win an equivalent loan
amount.
The French Development Agency also announced via its CEO Rioux Remy
several projects for a total of more than €400M :Wind power plant in
Meru @KenGenKenya, transport network and SCADA Centre, water Mombasa,
support to public finances.
The Nairobi All Share tried to stem a losing streak which had seen it
fall -13.446% since April 5th and is currently negative on a Year to
date basis



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom
was the most actively traded share and closed unchanged at
27.25 with 11.719m shares worth 321.332m changing hands. Safaricom has
corrected -16.79% since clocking a record closing high of 32.75 in
early April. Buyers can step in soon as the price correction is
overdone and the Ethiopian Opportunity and Ethiopia with its 105m
Citizens is a parabolic Opportunity for M-Pesa.

Nation Media Group eased -0.52% to close at a Fresh 14 month low of
95.50 and traded 16,200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank firmed +0.52% to close at 48.25 and had stretched as high
as 49.00 +2.08% at the Closing Bell. Equity traded 5.482m shares and
there is plenty of scope to the Upside from here. The Regional
Subsidiary performance was startlingly good at the FY 2017 mark and
has the potential to accelerate from these levels.
Standard Chartered firmed +0.5% to close at 202.00 and traded 40,700
shares. Stanchart reported a -12.524% slowdown at the Q1 2018 mark but
its worth appreciating that Stanchart are the most aggressive and
prompt in taking the mark down whereas others prefer a drip drip
strategy. Standard Chartered is a Big Buy at these levels.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen which snaffled up funding for its Meru Wind Farm from the AFD
and KFW, closed unchanged at 7.15 and traded 1.244m shares. KenGen
trades on a Trailing PE of 5.219 and the share price a serious value
proposition.

EABL closed unchanged at 215.00 and traded 516,200 shares. EABL has
underperformed the Nairobi All Share by a 1,000 basis points in 2018.


--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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