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Thursday 12th of July 2018 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice Africa |
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door I had to find the passage back To the place I was before “Relax,” said the night man, “We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! “ What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.
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05-FEB-2018 :: Halcyon Days @TheStarKenya Africa |
Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,
From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds (kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today, the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for being happy and/or successfuL
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Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati Officials Privately Pushed for Trump to Strike a "Grand Bargain" with Putin @NewYorker Law & Politics |
During a private meeting shortly before the November, 2016, election, Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, floated to a longtime American interlocutor what sounded, at the time, like an unlikely grand bargain. The Emirati leader told the American that Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, might be interested in resolving the conflict in Syria in exchange for the lifting of sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Current and former U.S. officials said that bin Zayed, known as M.B.Z., was not the only leader in the region who favored rapprochement between the former Cold War adversaries. While America’s closest allies in Europe viewed with a sense of dread Trump’s interest in partnering with Putin, three countries that enjoyed unparallelled influence with the incoming Administration—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E.—privately embraced the goal. Officials from the three countries have repeatedly encouraged their American counterparts to consider ending the Ukraine-related sanctions in return for Putin’s help in removing Iranian forces from Syria.
The special counsel, Robert Mueller, and his F.B.I. team, tasked with probing Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, have been investigating whether the U.A.E. facilitated contacts between Trump’s team and Russian officials and sought to influence U.S. politics. Nine days before Trump’s Inauguration, Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater and a confidant of Steve Bannon, met at M.B.Z.’s resort in the Seychelles with Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, whom the Emiratis used as a go-between with Putin. (An April, 2017, Washington Post story that I co-wrote revealed the Indian Ocean encounter and stated that “the UAE agreed to broker the meeting in part to explore whether Russia could be persuaded to curtail its relationship with Iran, including in Syria, a Trump administration objective that would be likely to require major concessions to Moscow on U.S. sanctions.”)
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So it's @realDonaldTrump @AmbJohnBolton @SecPompeo @netanyahu Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the Rajavis -- versus Iran and the world Law & Politics |
There are growing indications that the Trump administration plans to use the Mojahedin-e Khalq (People’s Mojahedin of Iran, or MEK) as a key element in its strategy to destabilize Iran preparatory to regime change.
On June 30 Trump’s personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani told the group in Paris: “We are now realistically being able to see an end to the regime in Iran. Trump doesn’t turn his back on freedom fighters.”
On July 1, 2017 John Bolton, former State Department official and Trump supporter, addressed a large gathering of MEK supporters in Paris.
“There is a viable opposition to the rule of the ayatollahs,” he told the enraptured crowd, “and that opposition is centered in this room today…I have said for over 10 years since coming to these events that the declared policy of the United States should be the overthrow of the regime in Tehran. The behavior and the objectives of the regime are not going to change. And therefore the only solution is to change the regime itself. And that’s why before 2019 we here will celebrate in Tehran!”
Analysts agree that MEK is a very unusual organization. Led by a married couple, Massoud Rajavi and his wife Maryam Rajavi, it imposes strict discipline including life-long celibacy on its members.
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Ethiopia's 100 day revolution @mailandguardian's @simonallison Africa |
Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s new prime minister, has made sweeping changes in his first 100 days in office. In this he is not alone: all new leaders know that they need to put on a show in their first few months in office, and act accordingly. But the scale and depth of Abiy’s reforms suggest that his reforms might be more than mere window dressing. Take John Magufuli, who took power in Tanzania in 2015. He had promised change to voters, and he needed to deliver — or at least pretend to. He cancelled independence day celebrations in the name of fiscal prudence. He slashed the budget for a state dinner and used the savings to buy hospital beds. He dropped in unannounced to the finance ministry, berating officials who were not at their desks. He visited a hospital and, appalled by the poor conditions, sacked its director on the spot. If nothing else, those early weeks of his administration were an unprecedented public relations coup. Tanzanians were quietly impressed, and so too were citizens of other African countries, who wished their own presidents would learn a few lessons. The hashtag #WhatWouldMagufuliDo was born. Ordinary Africans across the continent used it — with great wit and humour — to express their hopes and dreams for their own leaders. But it wasn’t just ordinary citizens paying close attention. So too were other would-be presidents, the ones waiting for their turn in the top job, who could not fail to observe the praise being lavished in Magufuli’s direction — and who understood better than anyone how little he had done to earn it. At that point, Magufuli had yet to attempt any meaningful reform. He had not opened up his country’s political space; he had not meaningfully tackled state corruption, which would have implicated senior figures within his own party; he had not implemented the root-and-branch overhaul necessary to turn around struggling health and education systems. He still hasn’t. The initial excitement that surrounded him has disappeared. If anything, Tanzania has regressed under his watch, with basic civil liberties under threat. But Magufuli established a template that would be followed in subsequent years by a parade of new African leaders, who understood that the show was more important than the substance when it came to generating positive media headlines and laundering their own sometimes dubious reputations. In South Africa, for example, Cyril Ramaphosa turned himself into a social media darling when he flew to a conference in Kigali using the national carrier, South African Airways, rather than renting out a private plane — even though SAA does not fly to Kigali, and the plane had been chartered for the occasion. In Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa donned a stylish scarf and adopted a new mantra — ‘Zimbabwe is open for business’ — intended to demonstrate his reformist credentials, hoping that the bright colours would help us forget the decades he had spent as Robert Mugabe’s right hand man. In Angola, Joao Lourenco made a big show of firing the family members of former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos from senior positions — but, say critics, all this achieves is to change who benefits from corruption, rather than tackling the corruption itself. So when Abiy Ahmed took office in Ethiopia in April this year, following the surprise resignation of his predecessor Hailemariam Desalegn, observers could be forgiven a degree of cynicism when he promised to initiate a wide range of much-needed reforms. For once, that cynicism may have been misplaced. Just last year, any one of these reforms would have been unthinkable. Together, they are a revolution — a wholesale reimagining of the Ethiopian state. Such has been the speed and scale of Abiy’s changes that Ethiopians are beginning to think that he might be the real thing. Hundreds are returning from exile abroad, eager to believe that this time, things really have changed. “The things that are happening in this country are beyond our dreams and imagination,” said Hallelujah Lulie, program director at Amani Africa and a seasoned political analyst not prone to hyperbole. “We can’t say the changes are irreversible. But at this point it looks genuine.” In his first 100 days in office, Abiy has freed thousands of political prisoners; ended the state of emergency; announced plans to partially privatise key industries, including telecommunications and aviation; admitted and denounced the use of torture by state security services; and fired prison officials implicated in human rights abuses in the wake of a damning Human Rights Watch report. He also ended a war. The hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea date back decades, but it took Abiy just a few weeks to conclude a peace deal with Isaias Afwerki, his counterpart in Asmara. Crucially, Abiy was prepared to make concessions, including withdrawing troops from disputed border regions. Now there are scheduled flights between the two countries and, for the first time, it is possible to make international phone calls between them, allowing some long-separated families to speak to each other for the first time this century. Just last year, any one of these reforms would have been unthinkable. Together, they are a revolution — a wholesale reimagining of the Ethiopian state. But at this point, who would bet against him following through with this promises? In his first 100 days in office, Abiy has already achieved more than many leaders can ever dream of — fundamentally altering the political landscape of Ethiopia, and the broader Horn of Africa region, in the process.
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These 90 or so days represent the most consequential arrival of an African Politician on the African Stage since Mandela walked out of prison blinking in the sunlight Africa |
I was watching the France-Argentina game and the arrival of Kylian Mbappe on the world stage at the tender age of 19. I recalled watching the Whirling Dervishes of the Mevlevi order on a night of a full moon in Konya, Turkey. I thought what they all have in common with Abiy Ahmed. It’s all about speed and velocity. Paul Virilio terms it ‘dromology’, which he defined as the “science (or logic) of speed“. He notes that the speed at which something happens may change its essential nature, and that which moves with speed quickly comes to dominate that which is slower. “Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territory is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a matter of movement and circulation.” Virilio argues that the traditional feudal fortified city disappeared because of the increasing sophistication of weapons and possibilities for warfare. For Virilio, the concept of siege warfare became rather a war of movement. Abiy Ahmed has moved at lightning speed, the old guard is like ‘’the traditional feudal fortified city’’.
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Zambia says debt restructuring will not disrupt Chinese projects Reuters Africa |
Zambia will be careful to ensure its planned debt restructuring does not disrupt Chinese-financed projects, President Edgar Lungu said on Wednesday, after China’s ambassador to the southern African nation sought clarification on the matter.
Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe would in the coming days lead a Zambian delegation to China for strategic consultations on the debt restructuring progamme, Lungu said.
Zambia said in February it would rearrange loans from Chinese companies as part of a debt management plan aimed at satisfying conditions set by the International Monetary Fund to unlock a potential $1.3 billion loan.
Zambia’s debt was $9.3 billion, or roughly a third of gross domestic product, at the end of March, up from $8.7 billion at the end of 2017.
Conclusions
Another Turkey.
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Abraaj-Held Coffee Chain Seeks Growth Out of Kenya Heartland Kenyan Economy |
An Abraaj Holdings-owned chain of Kenyan coffee shops is shrugging off its parent’s funding woes to plot an expansion out of East Africa and possibly as far as China.
Java House, which has almost 60 outlets across Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda, plans to boost that to as many as 200 over the next four years, Chief Executive Officer Paul Smith said in an interview in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital. The company has set aside almost 1 billion shillings ($9.9 million) to pay for the acquisition of businesses and real estate, he said, and is targeting new markets such as Nigeria.
The growth plans come as Dubai-based private equity firm Abraaj undergoes a court-supervised restructuring, triggered after some investors called for an investigation of alleged mismanagement of money. Abraaj is seeking to sell funds, and has offers from Cerberus Capital Management LP and Colony Capital Inc., people familiar with the matter said this week. Java House is part of Abraaj Africa Fund III, which has $990 million in assets.
The crisis “hasn’t in any way affected us,” Smith said. “The fund that controls Java is very well managed by the team here. There are people talking to Abraaj about taking over certain areas, but at the moment it’s business as usual.”
Abraaj bought its holding in Java from Emerging Capital Partners LLC last year, and had been expected to hold the investment for five years, Smith said. An exit could be through a private investor or a listing, he said.
Java House will look for potential franchisees in countries including Ghana and South Africa on top of the store-opening spree. But its most ambitious target is China, and the company is in discussions with a potential investor about exporting coffee there and eventually opening stores, Smith said. Starbucks Corp. is targeting the world’s second-largest economy as a major growth market and opens a new store in the country every 15 hours.
“China would be a lovely dream,” he said. “We are seriously having a look at it.”
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N.S.E Today |
International Markets ''tail-spinned'' big time yesterday. It was a Blood Bath in many markets. There is blood in the Water and the Sharks are circling. Threats to Escalate the Trade War [and exit NATO] by The Donald sent everyone piling for the Exit at the same time. The Bloomberg Commodity Index had its worst day since 2014! The price for copper, a metal widely used in consumer goods such as air conditioners and refrigerators that are targeted by the tariffs, fell by 3 per cent on the London Metal Exchange, touching its lowest level in a year. Zambia which is already battling vanishing FX reserves is now being slammed good and proper by the fall in the price of copper. Crude Oil fell nearly 5% and WTI fell below $70.00 a barrel. The Bloomberg Agricultural sub-index got trashed Emerging Markets which have been capitulating since early March capitulated some more With President Erdogan caught up in some serious crossfire. The Turkish lira sank to all all time lows and the stock Market has crashed over 10% in 3 trading sessions. Every major crypto coin is down in 2018 with an average decline of 62% As I said previously I reckon PM Abiy of Ethiopia is the most consequential arrival of an African Politician since Nelson Mandela took up leadership in 1994 in South Africa. Bloomberg's Bella Ganga carried a report on Java House headlined ''Abraaj-Held Coffee Chain Seeks Growth Out of Kenya Heartland'' An Abraaj Holdings-owned chain of Kenyan coffee shops is shrugging off its parent’s funding woes to plot an expansion out of East Africa and possibly as far as China. Java House, which has almost 60 outlets across Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda, plans to boost that to as many as 200 over the next four years, Chief Executive Officer Paul Smith said in an interview in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital. The company has set aside almost 1 billion shillings ($9.9 million) to pay for the acquisition of businesses and real estate, he said, and is targeting new markets such as Nigeria. Java House is part of Abraaj Africa Fund III, which has $990 million in assets. The crisis “hasn’t in any way affected us,” Smith said. “The fund that controls Java is very well managed by the team here. There are people talking to Abraaj about taking over certain areas, but at the moment it’s business as usual.” Java House will look for potential franchisees in countries including Ghana and South Africa on top of the store-opening spree. But its most ambitious target is China, and the company is in discussions with a potential investor about exporting coffee there and eventually opening stores, Smith said. Starbucks Corp. is targeting the world’s second-largest economy as a major growth market and opens a new store in the country every 15 hours. “China would be a lovely dream,” he said. “We are seriously having a look at it.” My Favourite quote of Abraaj's Founder and no longer CEO Arif Naqvi is ''Todays's Peacock is tomorrow's Feather Duster'' The Nairobi All Share Index eased -0.37 points. The NSE20 eased -6.51 points. Equity Turnover was lackadaisical at 338.465m
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom closed unchanged at 28.50 and traded 3.35m shares. If you can grab it a little below here, You will be ''quids in'' by year End.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
KenGen closed unchanged at 6.95 and traded 63,200 shares. The share price is egregiously oversold and the low volumes confirm that conclusion.
EABL was the busiest share at the Bourse today closing -0.94% lower at a 210.00 a fresh 2018 closing Low. The announcement that Crown Beverages, a subsidiary of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, had partnered with Campari Group for the distributorship of Campari alcohol brands in the Kenyan market. This report might have been the catalyst for todays trading but its worth appreciating that EABL controls c. 55% of the spirits market and over 90% of the beer market in Kenya, according to management guidance. EABL traded 599,700 shares worth 125.947m. EABL is -10.924% in 2018 on a Total Return Basis.
ARM Cement rallied by the daily maximum to close +9.46% [the daily limit] at 4.05 a 7 week high. Mr. Paunrana indicated he had snaffled up financial support from the IFC and this reversed the slump seen earlier in the week when the Business daily reported that Deloitte had qualified the accounts and referred to a 21b discrepancy. However, ARM which slumped 80.38% from the start of the year through 4th June, has now bounced +58.82% off that 11 year low and Pradeep is like that proverbial Phoenix rising from the Ashes. ARM traded 850,200 shares. There were Buyers for over 4m shares.
KenolKobil eased -1.12% to close at 17.60 and traded 463,500 shares.
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