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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 12th of July 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
Africa


If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

read more


05-FEB-2018 :: Halcyon Days @TheStarKenya
Africa


Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successfuL

read more










'If a little dreaming is dangerous, the cure for it is not to dream less, but to dream more, to dream all the time.' - Marcel Proust
Africa


A World Cup semi final awaits. 🦁🦁🦁 #ThreeLions #ENG #WorldCup
#Semifinal @HKane

https://twitter.com/HKane/status/1015945745453772801

England played really well. Hannah, Nishet and I watched the game and
were all disappointed.

read more

















Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati Officials Privately Pushed for Trump to Strike a "Grand Bargain" with Putin @NewYorker
Law & Politics


During a private meeting shortly before the November, 2016, election,
Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, floated to a
longtime American interlocutor what sounded, at the time, like an
unlikely grand bargain. The Emirati leader told the American that
Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, might be interested in
resolving the conflict in Syria in exchange for the lifting of
sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Current and former U.S. officials said that bin Zayed, known as
M.B.Z., was not the only leader in the region who favored
rapprochement between the former Cold War adversaries. While America’s
closest allies in Europe viewed with a sense of dread Trump’s interest
in partnering with Putin, three countries that enjoyed unparallelled
influence with the incoming Administration—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and
the U.A.E.—privately embraced the goal. Officials from the three
countries have repeatedly encouraged their American counterparts to
consider ending the Ukraine-related sanctions in return for Putin’s
help in removing Iranian forces from Syria.

The special counsel, Robert Mueller, and his F.B.I. team, tasked with
probing Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, have been
investigating whether the U.A.E. facilitated contacts between Trump’s
team and Russian officials and sought to influence U.S. politics. Nine
days before Trump’s Inauguration, Erik Prince, the founder of
Blackwater and a confidant of Steve Bannon, met at M.B.Z.’s resort in
the Seychelles with Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign
wealth fund, whom the Emiratis used as a go-between with Putin. (An
April, 2017, Washington Post story that I co-wrote revealed the Indian
Ocean encounter and stated that “the UAE agreed to broker the meeting
in part to explore whether Russia could be persuaded to curtail its
relationship with Iran, including in Syria, a Trump administration
objective that would be likely to require major concessions to Moscow
on U.S. sanctions.”)

read more


So it's @realDonaldTrump @AmbJohnBolton @SecPompeo @netanyahu Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the Rajavis -- versus Iran and the world
Law & Politics


There are growing indications that the Trump administration plans to
use the Mojahedin-e Khalq (People’s Mojahedin of Iran, or MEK) as a
key element in its strategy to destabilize Iran preparatory to regime
change.

On June 30 Trump’s personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani told the group in
Paris: “We are now realistically being able to see an end to the
regime in Iran. Trump doesn’t turn his back on freedom fighters.”

On July 1, 2017 John Bolton, former State Department official and
Trump supporter, addressed a large gathering of MEK supporters in
Paris.

“There is a viable opposition to the rule of the ayatollahs,” he told
the enraptured crowd, “and that opposition is centered in this room
today…I have said for over 10 years since coming to these events that
the declared policy of the United States should be the overthrow of
the regime in Tehran. The behavior and the objectives of the regime
are not going to change. And therefore the only solution is to change
the regime itself. And that’s why before 2019 we here will celebrate
in Tehran!”

Analysts agree that MEK is a very unusual organization. Led by a
married couple, Massoud Rajavi and his wife Maryam Rajavi, it imposes
strict discipline including life-long celibacy on its members.

read more


The controversy was therefore dubbed Fontgate and on Friday, headline writers and wags on Twitter were saying that Pakistan was now "Sans Sharif."
Law & Politics


It all hinged on a document that the Sharif family had produced in an
attempt to distance the prime minister from questions about who owned
four properties in an upscale part of London.

The document was purported to be written in February 2006 but
court-appointed investigators concluded that it was forged, noting
that it used the Calibri font, a Microsoft licensed typeface that was
not commercially available at the time.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1672
Dollar Index 94.76
Japan Yen 112.43
Swiss Franc 0.9972
Pound 1.3214
Aussie 0.7380
India Rupee 68.555
South Korea Won 1126.97
Brazil Real 3.8776
Egypt Pound 17.8760
South Africa Rand 13.4781

read more












Metal prices slumped across the board on Wednesday, as concerns grow about the impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy.
Commodities


The price for copper, a metal widely used in consumer goods such as
air conditioners and refrigerators that are targeted by the tariffs,
fell by 3 per cent on the London Metal Exchange, touching its lowest
level in a year.

Prices for zinc dropped by as much as 6 per cent, pushing prices on
the LME down to their lowest level since June 2017. Nickel, a metal
used in stainless steel and electric car batteries, also declined by 3
per cent.

read more





Increasing the interest rate and burning billions in foreign reserves have done little to reverse the rupee's standing as Asia's worst-performing currency this year
Emerging Markets


With the current-account deficit set to widen, thanks to higher oil
prices and outflows from stocks and bonds, the rupee could be in for
some more weakness after it plunged to a record 69.0925 against the
dollar last month. The currency gained 0.1 percent to 68.7725 on
Wednesday.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings Ltd., said the rupee
will be driven by trade wars, sanctions on Iran, oil prices and the
U.S. Fed rate decisions. “The rupee will be tested at every interval.”

read more



Ethiopia's 100 day revolution @mailandguardian's @simonallison
Africa


Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s new prime minister, has made sweeping changes
in his first 100 days in office. In this he is not alone: all new
leaders know that they need to put on a show in their first few months
in office, and act accordingly. But the scale and depth of Abiy’s
reforms suggest that his reforms might be more than mere window
dressing.
Take John Magufuli, who took power in Tanzania in 2015. He had
promised change to voters, and he needed to deliver — or at least
pretend to.
He cancelled independence day celebrations in the name of fiscal
prudence. He slashed the budget for a state dinner and used the
savings to buy hospital beds. He dropped in unannounced to the finance
ministry, berating officials who were not at their desks. He visited a
hospital and, appalled by the poor conditions, sacked its director on
the spot.
If nothing else, those early weeks of his administration were an
unprecedented public relations coup. Tanzanians were quietly
impressed, and so too were citizens of other African countries, who
wished their own presidents would learn a few lessons. The hashtag
#WhatWouldMagufuliDo was born. Ordinary Africans across the continent
used it — with great wit and humour — to express their hopes and
dreams for their own leaders.
But it wasn’t just ordinary citizens paying close attention. So too
were other would-be presidents, the ones waiting for their turn in the
top job, who could not fail to observe the praise being lavished in
Magufuli’s direction — and who understood better than anyone how
little he had done to earn it.
At that point, Magufuli had yet to attempt any meaningful reform. He
had not opened up his country’s political space; he had not
meaningfully tackled state corruption, which would have implicated
senior figures within his own party; he had not implemented the
root-and-branch overhaul necessary to turn around struggling health
and education systems.
He still hasn’t. The initial excitement that surrounded him has
disappeared. If anything, Tanzania has regressed under his watch, with
basic civil liberties under threat.
But Magufuli established a template that would be followed in
subsequent years by a parade of new African leaders, who understood
that the show was more important than the substance when it came to
generating positive media headlines and laundering their own sometimes
dubious reputations.
In South Africa, for example, Cyril Ramaphosa turned himself into a
social media darling when he flew to a conference in Kigali using the
national carrier, South African Airways, rather than renting out a
private plane — even though SAA does not fly to Kigali, and the plane
had been chartered for the occasion.
In Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa donned a stylish scarf and adopted a
new mantra — ‘Zimbabwe is open for business’ — intended to demonstrate
his reformist credentials, hoping that the bright colours would help
us forget the decades he had spent as Robert Mugabe’s right hand man.
In Angola, Joao Lourenco made a big show of firing the family members
of former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos from senior positions —
but, say critics, all this achieves is to change who benefits from
corruption, rather than tackling the corruption itself.
So when Abiy Ahmed took office in Ethiopia in April this year,
following the surprise resignation of his predecessor Hailemariam
Desalegn, observers could be forgiven a degree of cynicism when he
promised to initiate a wide range of much-needed reforms.
For once, that cynicism may have been misplaced.
Just last year, any one of these reforms would have been unthinkable.
Together, they are a revolution — a wholesale reimagining of the
Ethiopian state.
Such has been the speed and scale of Abiy’s changes that Ethiopians
are beginning to think that he might be the real thing. Hundreds are
returning from exile abroad, eager to believe that this time, things
really have changed.
“The things that are happening in this country are beyond our dreams
and imagination,” said Hallelujah Lulie, program director at Amani
Africa and a seasoned political analyst not prone to hyperbole. “We
can’t say the changes are irreversible. But at this point it looks
genuine.”
In his first 100 days in office, Abiy has freed thousands of political
prisoners; ended the state of emergency; announced plans to partially
privatise key industries, including telecommunications and aviation;
admitted and denounced the use of torture by state security services;
and fired prison officials implicated in human rights abuses in the
wake of a damning Human Rights Watch report.
He also ended a war. The hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea date
back decades, but it took Abiy just a few weeks to conclude a peace
deal with Isaias Afwerki, his counterpart in Asmara. Crucially, Abiy
was prepared to make concessions, including withdrawing troops from
disputed border regions. Now there are scheduled flights between the
two countries and, for the first time, it is possible to make
international phone calls between them, allowing some long-separated
families to speak to each other for the first time this century.
Just last year, any one of these reforms would have been unthinkable.
Together, they are a revolution — a wholesale reimagining of the
Ethiopian state.
But at this point, who would bet against him following through with
this promises? In his first 100 days in office, Abiy has already
achieved more than many leaders can ever dream of — fundamentally
altering the political landscape of Ethiopia, and the broader Horn of
Africa region, in the process.

read more


These 90 or so days represent the most consequential arrival of an African Politician on the African Stage since Mandela walked out of prison blinking in the sunlight
Africa


I was watching the France-Argentina game and the arrival of Kylian
Mbappe on the world stage at the tender age of 19. I recalled watching
the Whirling Dervishes of the Mevlevi order on a night of a full moon
in Konya, Turkey. I thought what they all have in common with Abiy
Ahmed. It’s all about speed and velocity.
Paul Virilio terms it ‘dromology’, which he defined as the “science
(or logic) of speed“.
He notes that the speed at which something happens may change its
essential nature, and that which moves with speed quickly comes to
dominate that which is slower.
“Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territory
is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a
matter of movement and circulation.”
Virilio argues that the traditional feudal fortified city disappeared
because of the increasing sophistication of weapons and possibilities
for warfare. For Virilio, the concept of siege warfare became rather a
war of movement.
Abiy Ahmed has moved at lightning speed, the old guard is like ‘’the
traditional feudal fortified city’’.

read more








Zambia says debt restructuring will not disrupt Chinese projects Reuters
Africa


Zambia will be careful to ensure its planned debt restructuring does
not disrupt Chinese-financed projects, President Edgar Lungu said on
Wednesday, after China’s ambassador to the southern African nation
sought clarification on the matter.

Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe would in the coming days lead a
Zambian delegation to China for strategic consultations on the debt
restructuring progamme, Lungu said.

Zambia said in February it would rearrange loans from Chinese
companies as part of a debt management plan aimed at satisfying
conditions set by the International Monetary Fund to unlock a
potential $1.3 billion loan.

Zambia’s debt was $9.3 billion, or roughly a third of gross domestic
product, at the end of March, up from $8.7 billion at the end of 2017.

Conclusions


Another Turkey.

read more




No pressure Nigeria, take your time but don't take too long to sign the CFTA, Africa is waiting says @CyrilRamaphosa
Africa


No pressure Nigeria, take your time but don't take too long to sign
the CFTA, Africa is waiting says South Africa’s President
@CyrilRamaphosa during his keynote address at the #AfreximAM18
@afreximbank in Abuja, Nigeria

read more





Now Africa's undisputed King of Cement, he produces in 14 countries. "We have a margin of 47 per cent," he says, as if that were a mere bagatelle
Africa


Now Africa’s undisputed King of Cement, he produces in 14 countries. I
hear that the business makes 60 per cent margins, I say. He waves the
number away. “We have a margin of 47 per cent,” he says, as if that
were a mere bagatelle

read more






Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.59% 2018
Africa


Dramatic skies over Domboshava at sunset #Zimbabwe 🇿🇼 @alanhood77

https://twitter.com/alanhood77/status/1016035610455429121

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +9.46% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Met with General Thomas Waldhauser, the US-Africa Command Commander. @USAfricaCommand @BobGodec @UKenyatta
Kenyan Economy


Met with General Thomas Waldhauser, the US-Africa Command Commander.
Discussed regional security including the situation in Somalia and
South Sudan. Kenya is firmly committed to the cause of finding peace
in the two Nations @USAfricaCommand @BobGodec

read more


Abraaj-Held Coffee Chain Seeks Growth Out of Kenya Heartland
Kenyan Economy


An Abraaj Holdings-owned chain of Kenyan coffee shops is shrugging off
its parent’s funding woes to plot an expansion out of East Africa and
possibly as far as China.

Java House, which has almost 60 outlets across Kenya, Uganda and
Rwanda, plans to boost that to as many as 200 over the next four
years, Chief Executive Officer Paul Smith said in an interview in
Nairobi, the Kenyan capital. The company has set aside almost 1
billion shillings ($9.9 million) to pay for the acquisition of
businesses and real estate, he said, and is targeting new markets such
as Nigeria.

The growth plans come as Dubai-based private equity firm Abraaj
undergoes a court-supervised restructuring, triggered after some
investors called for an investigation of alleged mismanagement of
money. Abraaj is seeking to sell funds, and has offers from Cerberus
Capital Management LP and Colony Capital Inc., people familiar with
the matter said this week. Java House is part of Abraaj Africa Fund
III, which has $990 million in assets.

The crisis “hasn’t in any way affected us,” Smith said. “The fund that
controls Java is very well managed by the team here. There are people
talking to Abraaj about taking over certain areas, but at the moment
it’s business as usual.”

Abraaj bought its holding in Java from Emerging Capital Partners LLC
last year, and had been expected to hold the investment for five
years, Smith said. An exit could be through a private investor or a
listing, he said.

Java House will look for potential franchisees in countries including
Ghana and South Africa on top of the store-opening spree. But its most
ambitious target is China, and the company is in discussions with a
potential investor about exporting coffee there and eventually opening
stores, Smith said. Starbucks Corp. is targeting the world’s
second-largest economy as a major growth market and opens a new store
in the country every 15 hours.

“China would be a lovely dream,” he said. “We are seriously having a
look at it.”

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +0.60% 2018 (-12.382% since record high
of 196.57 set on April 5th)

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.86% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more






 
 
N.S.E Today


International Markets ''tail-spinned'' big time yesterday.
It was a Blood Bath in many markets. There is blood in the Water and
the Sharks are circling.
Threats to Escalate the Trade War [and exit NATO] by The Donald sent
everyone piling for the Exit at the same time.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index had its worst day since 2014!
The price for copper, a metal widely used in consumer goods such as
air conditioners and refrigerators that are targeted by the tariffs,
fell by 3 per cent on the London Metal Exchange, touching its lowest
level in a year.
Zambia which is already battling vanishing FX reserves is now being
slammed good and proper by the fall  in the price of copper.
Crude Oil fell nearly 5% and WTI fell below $70.00 a barrel.
The Bloomberg Agricultural sub-index got trashed
Emerging Markets which have been capitulating since early March
capitulated some more With President Erdogan caught up in some serious
crossfire.
The Turkish lira sank to all all time lows and the stock Market has
crashed over 10% in 3 trading sessions.
Every major crypto coin is down in 2018 with an average decline of 62%
As I said previously I reckon PM Abiy of Ethiopia is the most
consequential arrival of an African Politician since Nelson Mandela
took up leadership in 1994 in South Africa.
Bloomberg's Bella Ganga carried a report on Java House headlined
''Abraaj-Held Coffee Chain Seeks Growth Out of Kenya Heartland''
An Abraaj Holdings-owned chain of Kenyan coffee shops is shrugging off
its parent’s funding woes to plot an expansion out of East Africa and
possibly as far as China. Java House, which has almost 60 outlets
across Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda, plans to boost that to as many as 200
over the next four years, Chief Executive Officer Paul Smith said in
an interview in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital. The company has set aside
almost 1 billion shillings ($9.9 million) to pay for the acquisition
of businesses and real estate, he said, and is targeting new markets
such as Nigeria. Java House is part of Abraaj Africa Fund III, which
has $990 million in assets.
The crisis “hasn’t in any way affected us,” Smith said. “The fund that
controls Java is very well managed by the team here. There are people
talking to Abraaj about taking over certain areas, but at the moment
it’s business as usual.”
Java House will look for potential franchisees in countries including
Ghana and South Africa on top of the store-opening spree. But its most
ambitious target is China, and the company is in discussions with a
potential investor about exporting coffee there and eventually opening
stores, Smith said. Starbucks Corp. is targeting the world’s
second-largest economy as a major growth market and opens a new store
in the country every 15 hours.
“China would be a lovely dream,” he said. “We are seriously having a
look at it.”
My Favourite quote of Abraaj's Founder and no longer CEO Arif Naqvi is
''Todays's Peacock is tomorrow's Feather Duster''
The Nairobi All Share Index eased -0.37 points.
The NSE20 eased -6.51 points.
Equity Turnover was lackadaisical at 338.465m



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 28.50 and traded 3.35m shares. If you
can grab it a little below here, You will be ''quids in'' by year End.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen
closed unchanged at 6.95 and traded 63,200 shares. The share
price is egregiously oversold and the low volumes confirm that
conclusion.

EABL
was the busiest share at the Bourse today closing -0.94% lower at
a 210.00 a fresh 2018 closing Low. The announcement that Crown
Beverages, a subsidiary of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, had partnered
with Campari Group for the distributorship of Campari alcohol brands
in the Kenyan market. This report might have been the catalyst for
todays trading but its worth appreciating that  EABL controls c. 55%
of the spirits market and over 90% of the beer market in Kenya,
according to management guidance. EABL traded 599,700 shares worth
125.947m. EABL is -10.924% in 2018 on a Total Return Basis.

ARM Cement
rallied by the daily maximum to close +9.46% [the daily
limit] at 4.05 a 7 week high. Mr. Paunrana indicated he had snaffled
up financial support from the IFC and this reversed the slump seen
earlier in the week when the Business daily reported that Deloitte had
qualified the accounts and referred to a 21b discrepancy. However, ARM
which slumped 80.38% from the start of the year through 4th June, has
now bounced +58.82% off that 11 year low and Pradeep is like that
proverbial Phoenix rising from the Ashes. ARM traded 850,200 shares.
There were Buyers for over 4m shares.

KenolKobil
eased -1.12% to close at 17.60 and traded 463,500 shares.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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