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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 16th of July 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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Home Thoughts
Africa

Hey Twitter! Who took this photo? Please tell me! @EmmanuelMacron #LesBleus ⚽️ #WorldCup #WorldCupFinal @HeleneFouquet

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Political Reflections
Law & Politics

BREAKING: EU chief Donald Tusk urges US, Russia and China not to start trade wars and destroy world order that has brought peace @AP

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PM @Theresa_May and @POTUS Donald Trump had a meeting at Chequers to discuss a range of foreign policy issues @10DowningStreet
Law & Politics


PM @Theresa_May and @POTUS Donald Trump visited UK and US military
personnel at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, and then had a
meeting at Chequers to discuss a range of foreign policy issues

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

 



Euro 1.1703
Dollar Index 94.64
Japan Yen 112.39
Swiss Franc 1.0013
Pound 1.3246
Aussie 0.7436
India Rupee 68.565
South Korea Won 1128.35
Brazil Real 3.8509
Egypt Pound 17.8775
South Africa Rand 13.2604

 

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flame war between @Tesla CEO and Vernon Unsworth a spelunker who helped rescuers find the Thai soccer team @YahooFinance
International Trade



flame war between @Tesla CEO and Vernon Unsworth a spelunker who helped rescuers find the Thai soccer team, began after Unsworth made an appearance on @CNN and criticized @elonmusk 's idea to use a miniature submarine. 

Unsworth branded the billionaire's idea as little more than a "PR stunt" and that he could "stick his submarine where it hurts." A submarine "had absolutely no chance of working," @elonmusk "had no conception of what the cave passage was like" Unsworth

.@elonmusk defended his efforts by tearing into Unsworth in unusually harsh and personal tones on @Twitter . He referred to the British national as a "pedo guy" — which drew widespread condemnation on Social media https://

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Sugar futures in New York have already slumped 25 percent in 2018. @business
Commodities


That’s the biggest loss on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks
returns for 22 components.

Sugar stockpiles are poised for a record as slowing demand growth and
surging production creates the worst-performing commodity of 2018.

Consumers have become increasingly wary of the health impact of their
sweet tooth, and companies from canned-fruit maker Del Monte Foods
Inc. to snack-food seller Mondelez International Inc. are touting
products made with less sugar. While global consumption is still
rising, the pace of growth has slowed to an average 1.4 percent in
recent seasons, down from 1.7 percent over the past decade, according
to researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists.

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The Klepto Hills @OCCRP
Emerging Markets


The Emirates Hills are known as the “Beverly Hills of Dubai.”

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02-JUL-2018 :: He has been Prime Minster for 90 days. During those 90 days, he has criss-crossed the country, ended a state of emergency, released thousands of political prisoners, thawed relations with Eritrea
Africa


He has been Prime Minster for 90 days. During those 90 days, he has criss-crossed the country, ended a state of emergency, released thousands of political prisoners, thawed relations with Eritrea [29 Mar 2018 HE Abiy Ahmed @PM_AbiyAhmed - It is time. Lets build a wall of love between #Ethiopia & #Eritrea], bagged a $1b from the UAE, announced a dramatic economic about-turn. In matters language and linguistics, he has tapped into a ‘’Nelson Mandela’’ 1994 mood.  ese 90 or so days represent the most consequential arrival of an African politician on the African stage since Mandela walked out of prison blinking in the sunlight and constructed his ‘’rainbow nation’’.

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I ain't saying this is Isaias's plane but: It's hard to imagine him flying commercial, as last month's delegation did @ChrisJStein
Africa



The flight path makes sense Didn’t confirm it personally but social media said Abiy took the same route when he went to Asmara

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Bemba nominated as presidential candidate by his party - Now Kabila has a heavyweight political rival
Africa


Former Democratic Republic of Congo Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba has been nominated his party’s candidate for upcoming presidential elections, five weeks after his conviction for war crimes was overturned at the International Criminal Court.

The Movement for the Liberation of Congo, known as the MLC, named Bemba, who was the country’s vice president from 2003 to 2006, on Friday at the end of a two-day congress, according to a statement issued by the party. Presidential and legislative elections are due to take place on Dec. 23.

The 55-year-old’s return to the political fray presents President Joseph Kabila and his ruling coalition with a major rival who they expected to still be behind bars in The Hague. The International Criminal Court quashedBemba’s 2016 convictions for war crimes and crimes against humanity on June 8.

Bemba had been given an 18-year prison sentence for murders and rapes committed in 2002 and 2003 in the neighboring Central African Republic by fighters from the Congolese rebel group he then led, which was later transformed into his political party.

He is still in Belgium, awaiting the conclusion of hearings over a second conviction for witness tampering, and it is not yet clear if he will return to Congo before Aug. 8, the deadline for filing candidacies for the election.

Bemba was defeated in the 2006 presidential election by Kabila. He fled the country in 2007 after clashes between troops loyal to him and Kabila, before being arrested in Belgium the following year.

The sitting president is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term but Kabila’s refusal to say who’ll be the candidate for his ruling coalition is spurring speculation he’ll try to change or reinterpret the constitution to run again, or delay the vote.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -5.28% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.2604

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.8775

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.22% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.20% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Djibouti would be prepared to pay DP World compensation of "more or less half a billion dollars as early as next week" to settle a dispute over control of the city's Doraleh container terminal @Finan
Africa


In an interview with the Financial Times, Aboubaker Omar Hadi,
chairman of Djibouti Ports & Free Zones authority, rejected talk of
arbitration to settle a long-running dispute over the most modern port
in east Africa, saying that DP World had to accept it was no longer
involved in running the facility.

“For us arbitration is over,” he said. “They have to sit down with us,
take their money and go.”

Last week, Djibouti opened the first phase of a $3.5bn free trade zone
in which China Merchants Group and Dalian Port Authority have a stake.
DP World, a Dubai-based ports and logistics company, said the new
facility was in violation of its exclusive 30-year concession to run
Doraleh and warned that it was considering legal action.

DP World said in a statement: “This is yet another clear example by
the Djiboutian government of violating its contractual obligations and
the rights of foreign investors.”

In February, Djibouti seized Doraleh after accusing DP World of
deliberately under-using the port in favour of other regional
terminals, including Berbera in Somaliland, which DP World also runs.

“They were trying to control more and more ports in the Red Sea,” said
Mr Hadi, adding that DP World had shown no interest in using Doraleh
to its full capacity. “That’s when we started saying there’s something
wrong here,” he said.

Both Doraleh and Berbera are on the Red Sea, a narrow waterway
separating the east coast of Africa from the Gulf and a thoroughfare
for 30 per cent of world shipping cargo.

Mr Hadi said that the amount of compensation Djibouti was prepared to
pay was subject to detailed calculations, but would be based on the
net present value of DP World’s annual profits and dividends over the
remaining 20 years of the concession.

DP World refused to comment. In the past it has rejected accusations
that it purposefully starved Doraleh of traffic, saying it had
consistently argued that the region needed several competing ports.
Last year, DP World won an arbitration case against Djibouti, which
had claimed it had paid bribes to win the original concession.

The dispute between Djibouti and DP World is part of a wider strategic
manoeuvring in which several countries and companies are jostling for
shipping routes.

Djibouti, wedged between Eritrea and Somalia, has marketed itself as a
base for both cargo shipments and military bases, part of whose
rationale is to fight piracy in the waters off Somalia. The US, China,
France and Japan all have military bases in Djibouti within a few
miles of each other.

Landlocked Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa with
105m people, also needs access to ports. It has expressed an interest
in swapping shares in its airline and telecoms companies in return for
a stake in Doraleh, something Mr Hadi said Djibouti had accepted in
principle.

In May, Ethiopia took a 19 per cent stake in Berbera port in which DP
World holds a 51 per cent stake. The self-declared-independent
government of Somaliland has the other 30 per cent.

This month, Ethiopia concluded a peace agreement with Eritrea,
bringing to a close 20 years of hostility and giving it access to
Assab and Masawa ports, also on the Red Sea.

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.@KenyaPower Kenya Power and Lighting Company By ALY KHAN SATCHU
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Power has sunk -28.02% Year to data second only to ARM which is
-65.76% Year to date.

Jesse Livermore aka Edwin Lefevre said  "Markets are never wrong, only
opinions are."

I came across Noordin Haji at the Swiss Ambassador's residence last
week on the occasion of the visit of the Swiss President Alain Berset
to Kenya whom I interviewed see here http://bit.ly/2N4gzb6

I said to the DPP ''Look at that i was thinking about you and voila
here you are'' By the way thats called serendipity, which is one of my
favourite words and well worth looking up when you have a moment.

Anyway, as i stood in front of the DPP, for some reason my mind
flipped to Paul Ekman and his totemic book ''What the Face reveals''
Its an extraordinary book which gives the Reader a Road-Map to read
micro-expressions. Micro-expressions are split-second facial movements
which are essentially not controllable. I nearly got divorced when i
read Ekman because I kept saying to the Missus

''But Darling you don't mean that.''

I found myself looking a bit too intently at the DPP thinking to
myself, a Fellow who operated deep under cover, in the shadows, lets
see if i can read his micro-expressions.

That was early last week. Then at the end of the week, the Office of
the DPP in a series of machine-gun tweets said this;

I have directed the DCI to immediately cause the arrest of the
following persons and have them arraigned in court to answer charges
1.Dr. Ben Chumo – Former MD & CEO KPLC [When sought for comment, Chumo
asked to be called back later- Reuters]
2.Dr. Ken Tarus – GM, Finance (as he then was) [Tarus’s phone was off
and he was not immediately available to comment - Reuters]
3.Beatrice Meso – GM, Corporate Affairs & Company Secretary
4.Peter Mungai Kinuthia- GM, Business Strategy amongst others
48)I am therefore satisfied there is a prosecutable case made out
against each and every one of the following persons jointly/severally
53) •Conspiracy to commit an offence of economic crime
•Wilful failure to comply with the law relating to management of public funds

I have to give credit where credit is due and it is due to the
Blogosphere which had been relentless. KPLC of course drew everyones
attention because of the extraordinary Taleb like Fat Tail volatility
in our bills. Interestingly, KPLC had received outstanding
multi-lateral support particularly for its last Mile Effort. You will
need to ask the likes of the World Bank exactly what kind of due
diligence they have been doing because clearly it was very
superficial.

Kenya Power owns and operates most of the electricity transmission and
distribution system in the country and sells electricity to over
6.675,534 million customers (as at May 06, 2018).

So what happens next? The ODDP's charge sheet is compelling. We will
need a real quick forensic analysis to get our arms around the size of
the Hole. Someone serious has to be parachuted in real quick. More
''plus ça change, plus c'est la meme chose'' is not going to cut it.
In fact, The Signal in the Noise is that this Model has run out of
road, in fact, its careered off the road. Look outside and you will
see the debris everywhere from Mumias Sugar to Uchumi to Nakumatt etc
etc.

Abraaj's Founder [Abraaj was one of Africa's biggest Buy-Out Funds and
of course owns Java here in Kenya and is facing its own denouement]
Arif Naqvi famously said

''Todays Peacock is tomorrow's Feather Duster''

KPLC was a bit of peacock. Avoiding the Fate of being a Feather Duster
is going to require a significant mind-set and personnel change.

Lets see how the share price performs Monday.

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@KenyaPower share price data -28.02% 2018
Kenyan Economy



Par Value:                  20/-

Closing Price:           6.55

Total Shares Issued:          1951467045.00

Market Capitalization:        12,782,109,145

EPS:             3.72

PE:                 1.761 

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Police arrest ex-CEO of Kenya Power company
Kenyan Economy




Kenyan authorities said on Saturday they had arrested a former chief executive officer of the state-run distributor Kenya Power on suspicion of economic crimes and wanted to charge the current chief executive.

When sought for comment, Chumo asked to be called back later. Meso and Mwicigi were not immediately available to comment.

The Directorate of Criminal Investigations said two other Kenya Power managers it was looking for had surrendered into their custody on Saturday.

The office of the Director of Public Prosecutions said it planned to charge eight other Kenya Power officials including Ken Tarus, the present chief executive officer, who at the time of the alleged offences was the general manager for finance. The charges relate to economic crime and abuse of office.

Tarus’s phone was off and he was not immediately available to comment.


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@ARMcement1 share price data here -65.000% 2018
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           4.45
Total Shares Issued:          959940200.00
Market Capitalization:        4,271,733,890
EPS:             -6.83
PE:                 -0.652

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Kenyan firms where Abraaj has acquired a stake will be following keenly to see what comes out of the takeover deal. @BD_africa
Kenyan Economy


In 2017, the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) approved Abraaj
Group’s acquisition of a 56.2 per cent stake in Kenyan hospital chain
Avenue Group, making it the latest of the PE fund’s string of local
acquisitions.
In July last year, Washington-based Emerging Capital Partners (ECP),
which owned 90 per cent of Kenyan restaurant chain Java, announced it
was selling its entire stake to Abraaj in a takeover plan that also
forced Java Coffee House’s founder and chairman Kevin Ashley to part
with his 10 per cent stake.
Abraaj at the time said it could not comment on the financial details
of the transaction but people familiar with the deal then said it was
valued at Sh13 billion. Abraaj has injected Sh320 billion in 80
transactions across Africa. It is yet to disclose the value of its
Kenya portfolio.
The group also owns 10 per cent of the Kenyatta family’s Brookside
Dairies. Its independently run Abraaj Growth Markets Health Fund
(AGHF), a $1 billion (about Sh103 billion) health fund focused on
Africa, India, and Pakistan, has also been snapping up Kenyan
hospitals firming its grip in the sector.
Abraaj’s health fund Kenyan portfolio is made up of 18 clinics and 10
hospitals that provide over 700 patient beds.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 100.46
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.04% 2018

http://j.mp/PqoGhM

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.18% 2018

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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N.S.E Today


Presidents Trump and Putin are meeting in Helsinki.
Putin tells Trump: 'The time has to come to talk in a substantive way'
There is a Price to Pay and Putin is putting President Trump on notice.
Sugar futures in New York have already slumped 25 percent in 2018.
That’s the biggest loss on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks
returns for 22 components. Sugar stockpiles are poised for a record as
slowing demand growth and surging production creates the
worst-performing commodity of 2018.
The gap between a JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge of expected volatility in
developing-nation currencies and a G7  measure was at the highest
level since 2011 at the end of last week. People are very nervous
about holding EM.
Djibouti would be prepared to pay DP World compensation of “more or
less half a billion dollars . . . as early as next week” to settle a
dispute over control of the city’s Doraleh container terminal
@FinancialTimes's @davidpilling. I do wonder who is underwriting that
payment.
"The truth is, no amount of tax revenue will be enough to finance the
magnitude of fiscal indiscipline going on in government. The real cost
of running government must be reduced if Uganda is to achieve its
economic goals." - says @rggoobi
The authorities need more time to consider the publication of the
staff report and the related press release. concludes an IMF Kenya
report. @IMFNews
Turnover picked up to clock 601.456m.
Tariff Wars and EM weakness still weigh.

Safaricom closed unchanged at 28.25 and traded 10.493m shares worth
296.596m making it the most actively traded share at the Exchange.
Safaricom's price has been suppressed by the recent turbulence seen in
EM markets and therefore is offering outstanding value at these
levels.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB which earned a Buy Recommendation from Citibank eased -0.52% to
close at 47.50 and traded 3.255m shares. KCB has been speaking to the
Ethiopian Opportunity on multiple platforms.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 48.75 and traded 1.116m shares. Buyers
outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 2 to 1.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Kenya Power owns and operates most of the electricity transmission and
distribution system in the country and sells electricity to over
6.675,534 million customers (as at May 06, 2018).  Kenya Power which
had sunk -28.02% in 2018 found that practically its entire management
was interdicted by the DPP's Office. Kenyan authorities said on
Saturday they had arrested a former chief executive officer of Kenya
Power on suspicion of economic crimes and wanted to charge the current
chief executive.
The Office of the DPP in a series of machine-gun tweets said this;
I am therefore satisfied there is a prosecutable case made out against
each and every one of the following persons jointly/severally
•Conspiracy to commit an offence of economic crime
•Wilful failure to comply with the law relating to management of public funds
KPLC closed unchanged at 6.55 and traded 199,800 shares, which is an
outcome not many would have predicted at the start of the Trading
session.

ARM which opened the session at -65.00% Year to date maintained its
recent turnaround and closed +7.87% at 4.80 and traded 3.088m shares.
ARM cement is like a Phoenix rising from the ashes and has rebounded
+88.23% off a multi year closing low of 2.55 reached earlier this
year.

EABL also earned a recommendation from Citi but retreated -0.96% to
close at a Fresh 2018 low of 206 and traded 4,100 shares. EABL has
retreated -13.44% through 2018.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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