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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 18th of July 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

http://www.rich.co.ke

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Netflix is my 2nd recommended Trade of the Year after Twitter which i recommended on January 2nd
Africa


And thats the point - The new market is the international one and
Netflix is only just getting started. Buy Netflix heavily at the
current price of $349.00.

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Africa


Home Thoughts


The Youngest Daughter Hannah [who was once known as Hannah Banana but
woe betide you mentioning the same because she is quite a grand 12
year old these days but I am sure would behave as elegantly as HM The
Queen did the Donald] has become a very keen Horse-rider. There is a
scene in Mira Nair's Monsoon Wedding and the Father and Mother are
talking to each other and looking down at their sleeping and soon to
be married Daughter. This morning she was fast asleep and as i lent
down to kiss her i taught of that Father in that Mira Nair movie and
that moment and Nishet saw me immediately afterwards and knew my frame
of mind intuitively as she always does.

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Mulberries (Morus rubra) - this could possibly be the best berry of them all. @ReneRedzepiNoma
Africa


Mulberries (Morus rubra) - this could possibly be the best berry of
them all. The deep red color is almost an omen for its deep rich
flavor: It’s like 10 blackberries, 10 cherries, 10 raspberries and 10
blueberries in ONE SINGLE goddamn mouthful

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Law & Politics


"Mandela was a skilful strategist, a visionary, and a product of
collective leadership. The tapestry of his legacy is woven by deep
thinkers and freedom fighters, as well as the unnamed and unknown who
sharpened his intellect" — Graça Machel. #NMAL2018

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Ethiopia's Young, New Leader Shakes Up One-Party System WSJ
Law & Politics


ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia—In this strategically vital nation of 100
million, a charismatic young leader is delivering shock therapy to one
of the world’s most entrenched one-party systems

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Love or hate him Former US President Barack Obama is an excellent public speaker. @harumutasa
Law & Politics


Love or hate him Former US President Barack Obama is an excellent
public speaker. Watching him speak today for the first time I am in
the same stadium he is in, Wanderers, the man has something, a
presence #NelsonMandelaAnnualLecture #BarackObama #SouthAfrica

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Could not agree more @harumutasa I miss his linguistic ability to lift our chins and our Gaze cc @BarackObama
Law & Politics


Could not agree more @harumutasa I miss his linguistic ability to lift
our chins and our Gaze cc @BarackObama but this speech had a dark
Joker Figure lurking in the background of his #MandelaLecture

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Trump says he reviewed a video of his press conference with Putin and wants to clarify: @tictoc
Law & Politics


“In a key sentence in my remarks, I said the word ‘would’ instead of
‘wouldn’t,’” Trump says. “The sentence should’ve been: “I don’t see
any reason why it wouldn’t be Russia”

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@alykhansatchu The new professor of semiotics in a damage control @hervegogo
Law & Politics


Quite something to see Trump on the defensive and strictly reading
from a paper. That surely makes everyone doubts on the sincerity of
this exercise.

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05-DEC-2016:: Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist.
Law & Politics


Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave
his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’
Jeb — were devastating and terminal. The first thing is plausible
deniability (and some folks here at home need to remember those
words). The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to
navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a
non-linear way.

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A walk on the wild side as Trump meets Putin at Finland station @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


Trump treats the EU with undisguised disdain. He would love nothing
better than for the EU to dissolve. His Arab “partners” can be easily
controlled by fear. He has all but declared economic war on China and
is on tariff overdrive – even as the IMF warns that the global economy
runs the risk of losing around $500 billion in the process. And he
faces the ultimate intractable, the China-Russia-Iran axis of Eurasian
integration, which simply won’t go away.

So, talking to “world-class thug” Putin – in usual suspect terminology
– is a must. A divide-and-rule here, a deal there – who knows what
some hustling will bring? To paraphrase Lou Reed, New Trump City “is
the place where they say “Hey babe, take a walk on the wild side.”

During the Helsinki presser, Putin, fresh from Russia’s spectacular
World Cup soft power PR coup, passed a football to Trump. The US
president said he would give it to his son, Barron, and passed the
ball to First Lady Melania. Well, the ball is now in Melania’s court.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1633
Dollar Index 95.18 against a basket of currencies, the dollar was up
at 95.210 .DXY, after jumping 0.46 percent overnight.
Japan Yen 113.07 It also climbed to its highest since January against
the yen at 113.07 JPY=.
Swiss Franc 1.0020
Pound 1.3090
Aussie 0.7350
India Rupee 68.54
South Korea Won 1130.66
Brazil Real 3.8380
Egypt Pound 17.9003
South Africa Rand 13.3148

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The pound suffered another bout of Brexit blues after British Prime Minister Theresa May only just cleared the latest parliamentary hurdle to her leaving plans.
World Currencies


Wednesday’s edition of the Times reported May threatened rebel
lawmakers in her own party with a general election they defeated the
bill.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned a no-deal Brexit would
have “big” economic consequences and force a review of plans to raise
interest rates.

Sterling was last huddled at $1.3090 GBP=D3, after sliding 0.9 percent
on Tuesday.

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Bitcoin literally spiking up by almost 10% in about 30 minutes today based on no news. So only explanation: price manipulation. @Nouriel
World Currencies


Bitcoin literally spiking up by almost 10% in about 30 minutes today
based on no news. So only explanation: price manipulation. Since
Tether recently printed another $200 million of fake money & since
research proves Tether used to manipulate BTC, manipulation is at work
again.

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GOLD: break below 1226 opens to 1180. Hold above it and return above 1248 will form short term bottom @TCommodity 1,224.00
Commodities


Spot gold XAU= was hovering at $1,224.92 per ounce, having cratered at
$1,223.78. The steadily less-precious metal is down more than 5
percent for the year.

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Gold at 1y low, Silver at 2y low. @Schuldensuehner
Commodities


West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5 percent to $67.75 a barrel.
Gold was little changed at $1,227.92 an ounce. Earlier it fell more
than 1 percent.

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IMF Africa Perspective
Africa


The recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to continue, supported by
the rise in commodity prices. For the region, growth is expected to
increase from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 3.4 percent this year, rising
further to 3.8 percent in 2019 (0.1 percentage point higher for 2019
than forecast in the April WEO). The upgraded forecast reflects
improved prospects for Nigeria’s Its growth is set to increase from
0.8 percent in 2017 to 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019
(0.4 percentage point higher than in the April WEO for 2019) on the
back of an improved outlook for oil prices. Despite the
weaker‑than-expected first quarter outturn in South Africa (in part
due to temporary factors), the economy is expected to recover somewhat
over the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 as confidence improvements
associated with the new leadership are gradually reflected in
strengthening private investment.

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This paper discusses Al-Shabab's (AS) financial system and estimates the amount collected by the group
Africa


Summary
This paper discusses Al-Shabab's (AS) financial system and estimates
the amount collected by the group, based on figures provided to Hiraal
by former AS finance and Zakawaat officials. With the rise of Islamic
State in Somalia, AS is not the only terrorist group currently
involved in tax collection in Somalia; however, it is currently the
largest, and this paper therefore focuses on the group.
AS has two main departments that collect taxes from the public: the
Zakawaat Office and the Finance Office. The former is tasked with
collecting non-monetary taxes such as livestock and farm produce,
while the latter collects all monetary taxes.
The first head of the Zakawaat office was Sheikh Fuad, who notoriously
paid all the collected Zakah to the poor, leading to his immediate
dismissal after his first year in the job; Al-Shabab had a different
interpretation on how the Zakah should be used, and afterwards only a
small fraction was given to the poor. The Office is currently headed
by Mohamed Mire, who is from Puntland.
The AS Finance Department was originally formed when the group
conquered its first port city, Barawe, in 2008.1 The first Head of
Finance was the deceased 'Al-Maqdisi' who was from Bosaso. He built
the department from a ragtag, informal, highly inefficient office to
become the most ruthless collection entity in Somalia. It is currently
headed by Hassan Afgoi.
AS is financially self-sufficient; however, its expenses are ballooned
by recurring payments to hundreds of officials and local influencers,
many nominally in charge of areas not controlled by the group. The
group has however managed to raise emergency funds to keep itself
afloat, and has never failed to pay its fighters and administrators.
Zakawaat
Zakawaat is collected by troops mobilised from different AS
departments, assisted by clan elders; they are put into action during
the collection season, which is traditionally the month of Ramadan.
The starting rate is one camel out of every 25 camels owned and one
goat out of every 40 goats. Collection is done uniformly across all
the regions in south and central Somalia, including in the districts
that AS does not control. Collectors issue receipts to pastoralists;
those who lose their receipts are made to pay the taxes again in the
next year. This ensures that pastoralists who were away from AS
territory during the preceding year do not escape payment of Zakah. 2
Money is collected at checkpoints by AS collectors. Every day, an
auditor calls them to ask for the serial numbers of the receipts they
have issued. After ten days, an accountant collects the money from the
checkpoints. Each town has a number of checkpoints surrounding it; all
these are visited by the accountant, who takes the money to the
auditor, who sits at the head office in the town.
The auditor makes sure the money collected and receipts match; he
gives a stamped letter to the accountant, who takes the money to the
bank. At the bank, the accountant is given a slip which he takes back
to the auditor. After every two months, the collectors are replaced
and sent on leave for a month. After that, they are reassigned.
Each truck is taxed at $555, while larger trucks are taxed $1150 each
time they use the road while carrying goods.11
The AS tax revenues are estimated in this paper at $27mn while its
expenditures are at around $25.6mn. While our estimates are
conservative, the group breaks even on its balance sheet every year.
This is shown by the fact that the emergency tax collection is not
done on a regular basis, and not in every region. On the other hand,
the fact that emergency collection is sometimes needed shows that AS
profits are not significant and its income is just enough to cover its
expenses.

read more



Africa


It takes some brazenness for a nation rated six steps into junk
territory and with the world’s worst-performing currency to issue a
Eurobond in this market.

But Angola did just that on Monday, selling $500 million of 30-year
debt in only the third dollar-denominated deal from an emerging-market
government since May.

The sale suggests that even with sentiment toward emerging markets
turning much more bearish in the past three months, some investors
still can’t resist higher returns. Angola, which was increasing, or
tapping, its $1.25 billion 2048 notes first issued in May, paid a
yield of 9.1 percent in a deal arranged by Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.

Angola, rated B- by S&P Global Ratings, is scarcely without problems.
The OPEC member’s economy was battered by the crash in oil prices four
years ago and is yet to recover. The central bank has devalued the
kwanza by 35 percent this year in a bid to end huge shortages of
foreign exchange.

But the above-average yields have gone down well with investors.
Angola is the third-best performer this year in the Bloomberg Barclays
Emerging Markets USD Sovereign Bond Index, which includes more than 70
countries. Its Eurobonds have returned 0.8 percent, compared with an
average loss among peers of 3.5 percent. The tap even came with a
lower yield than on the original, which paid 9.4 percent.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -5.70% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.3177

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9023

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt to begin process for offering stakes in 5 state firms

https://bloom.bg/2Nr9gKv

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.35% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.24% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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.@TullowOilplc says may have to halt operations at northern Kenyan oilfields @ReutersAfrica
Kenyan Economy


“Essential supplies necessary to run Kapese Integrated Operation Base
(IOB) will run out in the next 14 days after which we will have no
option other than a complete shutdown of the camp,” Martin Mbogo said
in a statement.

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Kenya's @SafaricomPLC in "advanced talks" to take M-Pesa to Ethiopia @ReutersAfrica
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s Safaricom is in “advanced talks” with the Ethiopian government
to introduce its popular M-Pesa mobile money service to neighbouring
Ethiopia, a market of 100 million people, two sources said on Tuesday.

Britain’s Vodafone, Safaricom’s parent company, will license the use
of the M-Pesa trade name to an Ethiopia-based bank while Safaricom
will host the servers in Nairobi, one telecoms industry source told
Reuters.

Ethiopia’s state telecommunications monopoly, Ethio telecom, will
carry the service, the source added. Started in 2007, M-Pesa has
nearly 30 million users in Kenya.

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02-JUL-2018 :: I am sure our very own Safaricom who must have already presented the Prime minister with a copy of the MIT research on M-Pesa
Kenyan Economy


I am sure our very own Safaricom who must have already presented the
Prime minister with a copy of the MIT research on M-Pesa which
confirmed access to mobile-money services increased daily per capita
consumption levels of two percent of Kenyan households, lifting them
out of extreme poverty.

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M-Pesa's move also suggests Kenyan businesses are well placed to take advantage of a wave of political and economic liberalization unleashed in the last three months by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed @MaggieFick
Kenyan Economy


M-Pesa’s move also suggests Kenyan businesses, from telecoms to
banking to farming, are well placed to take advantage of a wave of
political and economic liberalization unleashed in the last three
months by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

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Safaricom was likely to be paid 10-25 percent of annual revenue from the new M-Pesa business in Ethiopia for providing the back-end of the technology, analysts said @Reuters
Kenyan Economy


Safaricom was likely to be paid 10-25 percent of annual revenue from
the new M-Pesa business in Ethiopia for providing the back-end of the
technology, analysts said, citing the arrangement in place when
Safaricom itself had to pay another company that hosted its M-Pesa
servers in Germany before 2015, when they were moved in-house to
Kenya.

The rate would start at 25 percent when user numbers are low and go
down to a minimum of 10 percent when the user numbers climb and
revenue grows, said Musau.

Revenue from Safaricom’s 20 million active M-Pesa users in Kenya,
which has less than half the population of Ethiopia, was 63 billion
shillings ($630 million) last year, a 14 percent increase on the
previous year.

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@KenyaPower Kenya Power and Lighting Company By ALY KHAN SATCHU
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Power has sunk -28.02% Year to data second only to ARM which is
-65.76% Year to date.

Jesse Livermore aka Edwin Lefevre said  "Markets are never wrong, only
opinions are."

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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
Kenyan Economy


Interview with @DrBensonWairegi @BritamEA Video

http://bit.ly/2rZM4uH

Interview with George Odo Senior Partner and MD, @AfricInvest_Grp East
Africa @richtvafrica

http://bit.ly/2s6ap2f

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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