home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 23rd of July 2018
 
Morning
Africa

Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

http://www.rich.co.ke

Macro Thoughts

read more


More countries defaulted on Eurobonds last year than any time since 1983, according to @MoodysInvSvc @PaulWallace123
Africa


More countries defaulted on Eurobonds last year than any time since
1983, according to @MoodysInvSvc. Four countries defaulted: #Belize,
#Mozambique, Rep. #Congo and #Venezuela. So far in 2018, #Barbados has
missed payments on external debt.

read more






Word of the (heatwave) day: "petrichor" - @RobGMacfarlane
Africa


Word of the (heatwave) day: "petrichor" - the fresh, rich smell that
accompanies rain when it falls on dry earth after a long period of hot
weather (from the Greek πέτρα/petra, "stone" & ἰχώρ/īchōr, "divine
fluid"), first coined in 1964 in Nature.

read more


Neil Armstrong, 240,000 miles from Earth, "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind."
Africa


On #ThisDayinHistory 1969, American astronaut Neil Armstrong, 240,000
miles from Earth, speaks these words to more than a billion people
listening at home: “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for
mankind.”

read more



To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE
Law & Politics


To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES
AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW
THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A
COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH.
BE CAUTIOUS!

read more


In a televised speech, Hassan Rouhani told the American president: "Do not play with the lion's tail, you will regret it forever."
Law & Politics


Iran's president has warned Donald Trump against provoking the
country, telling the US leader that "war with Iran is the mother of
all wars".

In a televised speech, Hassan Rouhani told the American president: "Do
not play with the lion's tail, you will regret it forever."

Addressing Iranian diplomats, Mr Rouhani said: "America should know
that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is
the mother of all wars.

"You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran's
security and interests."

Mr Rouhani also scoffed at Mr Trump's threat to halt Iranian oil
exports, saying: "Anyone who understands the rudiments of politics
doesn't say 'we will stop Iran's oil exports'.

"We have been the guarantor of the regional waterway's security
throughout history."

Mr Rouhani has suggested Iran may block Gulf oil exports if its own
trade is disrupted, a proposal backed by the country's supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's oil exports could fall by as much as two-thirds by the end of
the year because of new US sanctions, putting oil markets under huge
strain amid supply outages elsewhere.

read more




Inside China's surveillance state @FT
Law & Politics


Zhejiang Hangzhou No 11 High School, on the fringes of downtown
Hangzhou in eastern China, is a green, peaceful-seeming place to
learn. Gazebo-like structures nestle among lush foliage; grey stone
sculptures enact eternal dioramas and Japanese maples gently fan
placid lakes.

It is also a digital panopticon. A surveillance system, powered by
facial recognition and artificial intelligence, tracks the state
school’s 1,010 pupils, informing teachers which students are late or
have missed class, while in the café, their menu choices leave a
digital dietary footprint that staff can monitor to see who is gorging
on too much fatty food.

In May, The People’s Daily, a state-run media group, tweeted
approvingly about the school’s use of cameras to monitor, via their
facial expressions, how children were engaging in class. Had this
classroom-based part of the programme not been abruptly halted later
that month in the wake of local controversy, it would also have been
deployed to predict which pupils (the slouching ones) were likely to
underperform.

Welcome to China, where AI is being pressed into service as handmaiden
to an authoritarian government. For many critics, this seems fraught
with danger: an Orwellian world where “Big Brother” is always
watching, able to spy on anyone from human rights lawyers to political
dissidents and persecuted minorities. For supporters, it is near
utopian: a land where criminals and miscreants are easily weeded out,
where no one can cheat, where good behaviour is rewarded and the bad
punished.

The latter vision is the Chinese government’s stated aim. By 2020, a
national video surveillance network will be “omnipresent, fully
networked, always working and fully controllable”, according to an
official paper released in 2015.

The idea of constant monitoring is not unprecedented in China. Indeed,
the name of the government’s 2020 project — xueliang, or “sharp eyes”
— is a throwback to a Communist party slogan, “The people have sharp
eyes”, referencing the totalitarian ploy of encouraging neighbours to
spy on their neighbours.

Under Mao Zedong, cities were split into grids of socialist work units
where access to rations, housing and other benefits was enforced by
local spies who reported wayward behaviour from their neighbours. This
system of social control had in turn been built on a model of communal
self-policing introduced centuries before, during the Song dynasty.

In the old days at least you had somewhere you could hide, or where
you can do your private things. But now the assumption is people know
where you are

Today, the grid system has been revived, manned by an extensive
network of volunteer and part-time lookouts. In more troubled regions
such as Xinjiang and Tibet, armed police booths dot street corners.
Beijing has about 850,000 “informants” patrolling its streets,
according to state media. Renewing these old-school tactics is a
deliberate decision: the government knows that while surveillance
technology is advancing rapidly, it is far from perfect.

Cheetah Mobile is a Chinese company whose subsidiary’s
facial-recognition vending machine scored top in an international
facial-recognition test last year sponsored by Microsoft Research. But
Fu Sheng, its founder and chief executive, concedes it has a long way
to go in terms of spotting faces in crowds. “The human is an excellent
product,” he tells the FT. “No technology can exceed it.”

That may not matter. When the British philosopher Jeremy Bentham
envisaged his panopticon penitentiary in the late 18th century — a
circular building with an inspection tower at its centre — the idea
was that inmates would never know if they were being observed or not.
This “simple idea in architecture” would offer “a new mode of
obtaining power of mind over mind”, Bentham wrote. For some analysts
looking at the impact of China’s growing surveillance state, any
technological shortcomings are incidental. Like the panopticon itself,
it is the fear of being watched that is the most powerful tool of all.

“There’s a wave of enhanced surveillance going on worldwide,” says
Rogier Creemers, who studies Chinese governance at Leiden University.
The difference in China is the historical context: “Liberal democratic
institutions are based on the notion that state power must lie in the
hands of the population. There are things the state is just not
supposed to know or do,” he says. “China starts from a different point
of view — that a strong empowered state is necessary, in order to drag
the nation forward. In China, surveillance is almost a logical
extension of what the state is supposed to do, because the state is
supposed to keep people safe.”

Against the backdrop of deepening surveillance, the Chinese government
is introducing a “social credit system”. First described in an
official document in 2014 and now being piloted in various forms in
several cities, the idea is that people will ultimately be scored
based on past behaviour, taking in misdemeanours such as traffic
offences and court records.

At present, a good financial credit score, handed out by some
companies and operating rather like a loyalty programme, can confer
benefits such as waived deposits on shared bikes or preferential loan
rates. A poor social credit score, by comparison, could jeopardise a
university place, rule out certain jobs and even limit travel: more
than 10.5 million people have been barred from buying airline or
high-speed train tickets, according to the Supreme Court, since a
debtors blacklist was launched.

In troubled regions such as Xinjiang and Tibet, armed police booths
dot street corners. Beijing alone has about 850,000 informants that
patrol its streets

Meanwhile, the technology by which the government can track people is
constantly evolving. Facial recognition is increasingly used to unlock
smartphones in China, and thanks to its multiple commercial
applications — from allowing easy payment in a grocery store to home
security — it has attracted a slew of venture capital from across the
world. One tech banker dismisses facial recognition to the FT as
“kindergarten stuff” compared with what will come next.

Although China is expanding its surveillance network nationwide, it is
in the western region of Xinjiang that the technology is being put to
its most extreme use. The region has been closely policed since 2009,
when deadly riots broke out between the 11 million-strong Muslim
Uighur population and the minority Han Chinese. Xinjiang is a vast
region, and a relatively poor one, making the multitude of gleaming
cameras and sophisticated technology — inside bazaars, schools and
even mosques — all the more incongruous amid the expanses of desert
and empty roads.

Residents were unwilling to talk on the record about their
experiences, for fear of repercussions, but it is clear that normal
life has changed irrevocably for the Uighurs. Tahir Hamut, a Uighur
poet and film-maker who fled China and is now based in the US, tells
the FT about the day he and his wife were ordered to visit their local
police station and leave voice recordings, fingerprints, DNA swabs
and, of course, high-resolution video footage of their faces making
various expressions.

“I am a director, I make films, and I have seen many kinds of cameras.
But I had never seen a camera that strange. They adjusted [the] camera
to my eye level. They had me look up and look forward and down, left
and right and back,” Hamut recalls. “They did the same for females . .
. they had the women pucker their lips and filmed that. Every step had
to be completed perfectly; each expression could not be done too
quickly or slowly. If you made a face too fast, the computer would ask
you to stop and have you repeat it again. I had to try many times.
Many people had to spend an hour to complete this facial filming.”

Mandatory surveillance software is installed on residents’ mobile
phones to scan for Islamic keywords and pictures. Some people told the
FT that anyone found to have shared illicit material would be sent to
the region’s extensive network of extralegal detention camps, where
tens of thousands of Uighurs have already been imprisoned. Making too
many phone calls to or from anywhere outside of Xinjiang can also
result in detention. As a result, Uighurs living in Xinjiang can go
years without speaking to family members working in coastal cities
like Beijing or Shanghai.

Facial recognition, intrusive as it is, is only one of the tools the
authorities are using to monitor residents. Last year police were told
to conduct DNA swabs, iris scans and blood tests using a specially
designed mobile app and health checks, in order to build a region-wide
biometric database.

None of this is cheap. Overall public security spending in the region
was Rmb57.95bn ($9.16bn) in 2017, a 10-fold increase over the previous
decade. That has proved a windfall for Chinese security companies. The
government’s investment in public-private partnerships in security has
also increased, from $27.3m in 2015 to at least $1.1bn in 2017, based
on a tally of existing public tenders and Bank of China data. Among
the largest of these privately funded projects is in Xinjiang’s Shache
county, where almost 100 people were killed in 2014 in what state
media called a terrorist attack. The network there will include a
video surveillance centre, cloud storage facilities and a drone
system.

“Our business is dictated by the political requirements of our
country. ‘Maintaining stability’ is China’s national security priority
so Xinjiang really needs our products. The province is our largest
client by far,” says Wang Wufei, a sales director at X-Face, a
Shenzhen-based company that makes facial-recognition software and
hardware. In June, X-Face won a contract to supply 200 security
checkpoints in Xinjiang.

Scarier still is what comes next. A Shenzhen start-up making
grenade-bearing drones predicts the Xinjiang authorities will become
its largest client. Another, Xinjiang-based Zhenkong, which
specialises in signal-interference technology and has received funding
from the Xinjiang border police, sounds a bellicose note. “The
government needs entrepreneurs like us,” says Ge Guangxu, its
president. “There is no second place in war. We need to be prepared.”

Three centuries ago, Jeremy Bentham suggested his panopticon would
lead to “morals reformed . . . industry invigorated . . . public
burthens lightened”. China’s facial-technology players sound an eerily
similar note. Megvii and SenseTime, two of the country’s biggest
facial-recognition companies, claim their technology has apprehended
thousands of criminals — all without the need for armies of people to
watch hours and hours of CCTV footage. Both have attracted billions of
dollars in funding, from Chinese and Russian state funds as well as
stars of the Chinese tech scene such as Alibaba.

Qi Yin, co-founder and chief executive of Megvii, notes the myriad
uses of his company’s Face++ technology, such as in fintech payments.
But for him, surveillance is king: “I believe this will be the largest
one in the next three years.” Megvii counts on the government for 40
per cent of its business and describes its work as profiling rather
than just identifying. Someone who regularly appears in video from a
subway station but is not an employee could be a thief, says Xie
Yinan, a vice-president at Face++, and the information — in the form
of code — is sent to the police.

There is even demand among insurers to use the smart glasses to
recognise cows — farmers have been known to claim insurance on the
same deceased bovine twice

Then there are China’s own exports, particularly to developing
countries under the “ One Belt One Road” initiative. One such deal, to
Zimbabwe, could highlight another key problem with facial-recognition
technology, which learns according to the data it is fed: an MIT and
Stanford University study found error rates of 20-34 per cent for
determining the gender of darker-skinned women compared with less than
1 per cent for light-skinned men.

The rise of mass surveillance yields reams of data, and therein lies
one of the big dangers for any country going down this road, says
Nuala O’Connor, chief executive of the US-based Center for Democracy
and Technology. “The risks are the creation of a pervasive and
permanent database of individual images for law enforcement, but then
used for other purposes, perhaps by government actors,” she says.

Some 530 surveillance patents were filed by Chinese groups last year,
more than five times the number in the US

read more



05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang
Law & Politics


Dissent is measured and snuffed out very quickly in China. China has
unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a combination of data
from video surveillance, face and license plate recognition, mobile
device locations, and official records to identify targets for
detention [CDT]. Xinjiang is surely a Precursor for how the CCCP will
manage dissent.  The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional
authorities’ ongoing “Strike-Hard” campaign, and of President Xi’s
“stability maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region.

read more





@realDonaldTrump suggests he's 'ready' to impose tariffs on every Chinese import @washingtonpost
Law & Politics


“I’m ready to go to 500,” Trump said during an interview on CNBC,
referring to the dollar amount of Chinese imports to the United States
last year, $505.5 billion.

Earlier this month, the United States levied tariffs on $34 billion
worth of Chinese goods, prompting retaliation from China that has hit
U.S. farmers particularly hard, including in states that Trump won in
2016.

Asked about the prospect of a stock market plunge in response to
larger-scale tariffs, Trump said: “Well, if it does, it does.”

read more




05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics


However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.

read more


RIS in 2016 executed an incredibly aggressive clandestine destabilization campaign against the US election encompassing #deza, Active Measures, moles/agents placed all over DC, and classic Chekist spy methods @20committee
Law & Politics


RIS in 2016 executed an incredibly aggressive clandestine
destabilization campaign against the US election encompassing #deza,
Active Measures, moles/agents placed all over DC, and classic Chekist
spy methods. One truly for the record books, an epic Kremlin SpyWar
success..../4

read more


Putin hedges Trump bet by dumping Treasuries to safeguard assets
Law & Politics


A U.S. Treasury report this week appears to show Russia liquidating
dollar assets at a record pace, selling four-fifths of its cache of
U.S. government debt, $81 billion worth, over a two-month period. It
started in April, when the U.S. imposed the most onerous sanctions yet
on allies of Putin.

The release caused a stir in the markets because neither the Treasury
nor the Bank of Russia will comment on the transactions. And the data
is murky, so it’s hard to know if Russia actually offloaded the bulk
of its U.S. assets or simply transferred custodianship to a foreign
entity to disguise ownership.

But for Sergey Dubinin, Russia’s central bank chief from 1995 to 1998,
there’s no mystery at all -- the sales were simply a prudent “hedge”
against confiscation, a possibility that looks more likely every day.
Russia, he said, has learned from Iran’s experience and is converting
its dollar assets into other currencies to safeguard its reserves
against any attempts at seizure.

“It would be silly to sell U.S. debt and then keep it in dollars
somewhere else,” said Dubinin, who’s now on the supervisory board of
state-run VTB, Russia’s second-largest lender. “They most likely
bought other hard currencies like euros and yen.”

Putin has long railed against “the dollar monopoly,” even referring to
the U.S. as a “parasite” for “living beyond its means.” In May, after
he was sworn in for a fourth term, Putin went further and called for a
“break” from the dollar to bolster the country’s “economic
sovereignty.”

read more


He does seem in la-la land. Dementia is quite possible. On the other hand, many psychiatrists have told me that he a psychopath decompensating under Mueller's pressure @JeffDSachs
Law & Politics


He does seem in la-la land.  Dementia is quite possible.  On the other
hand, many psychiatrists have told me that he a psychopath
decompensating under Mueller's pressure.  And many investigative
reporters are quite convinced he's owned by Russia (a traitor).  Hard
to be sure.

read more



I supported @AmbJohnBolton and Mike @SecPompeo when they were elevated to their current jobs @nytopinion @BretStephensNYT
Law & Politics


I supported @AmbJohnBolton and Mike @SecPompeo when they were elevated
to their current jobs. In the wake of the Helsinki disgrace, I'm
calling on them to resign to save what's left of their honor and
integrity. My column in @nytopinion

read more


Dear @BretStephensNYT look for the Photo where @AmbJohnBolton was served up on a Silver Platter to Vladimir - its really sophisticated political triangulation -
Law & Politics


Dear @BretStephensNYT look for the Photo where @AmbJohnBolton was
served up on a Silver Platter to Vladimir ~ it’s really sophisticated
political triangulation ~ but Good Grief the Optics are undeniable and
irrefutable

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1718
Dollar Index 94.36
Japan Yen 111.01
Swiss Franc 0.9918
Pound 1.3133
Aussie 0.7415
India Rupee 68.735
South Korea Won 1130.83
Brazil Real 3.7685
Egypt Pound 17.9135
South Africa Rand 13.4238

read more



#Euro jumps >$1.17 as Trump attacks high interest rates again in a Tweet after CNBC Interview. "... 1.1718
World Currencies


#Euro jumps >$1.17 as Trump attacks high interest rates again in a
Tweet after CNBC Interview. "...The U.S. should be allowed to
recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD
Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates - Really?"

read more






West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery traded at $68.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 8 cents, at 1:26 p.m. in Singapore
Commodities


West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery traded at $68.18
a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 8 cents, at 1:26
p.m. in Singapore. The August contract, which expired Friday, closed
1.4 percent higher at $70.46 a barrel. Total volume traded was about
52 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for September settlement lost 6 cents to $73.01 a barrel on the
London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices fell 3 percent last
week. The global benchmark crude traded at a $4.84 premium to WTI.

read more



S&P affirms #Russia at BBB- (one notch above junk), stable outlook citing solid external and public balance sheets @Schuldensuehner
Emerging Markets


S&P affirms #Russia at BBB- (one notch above junk), stable outlook
citing solid external and public balance sheets coupled w/ a flexible
exchange rate and prudent fiscal framework. BUT sanctions and weak
institutions constrain growth prospects.

read more






Zimbabwe's July 30 presidential election will provide no clear winner, with 40 percent of voters choosing President Emmerson Mnangagwa and 37 percent his opponent, @nelsonchamisa @afrobarometer poll
Africa


Mnangagwa leads Chamisa 40% to 37% among registered likely voters.
But voting intentions of 20% still unknown #ZimbabweDecides2018
#ZimElections2018 🗳️@afrobarometer

https://twitter.com/afrobarometer/status/1020234031605190658

It’s @nelsonchamisa’s moment  #ZimbabweDecides2018 #ZimElections2018 🗳
https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/1020325983579197446

AD223: Zimbabwe’s presidential race tightens one month ahead of July
30 voting #ZimbabweDecides2018 #ZimElections2018 🗳️@afrobarometer

http://bit.ly/2NxQnpl

read more




20-NOV-2017 :: Zimbabwe The genie is out of the bottle #ZimbabweDecides2018 #ZimElections2018 🗳️
Africa


It is authority that provokes revolution.  is occurs when a feeling of
impunity takes root among the elite: We are allowed anything, we can
do anything.  is is a delusion, but it rests on a certain rational
foundation. For a while it does indeed look as if they can do whatever
they want. Scandal after scandal and illegality after illegality go
unpunished.  e people remain silent... They are afraid and do not yet
feel their own strength. At the same time, they keep a detailed
account of the wrongs, which at one particular moment are to be added
up.  The choice of that moment is the greatest riddle of history -
Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs.

read more



Zimbabwe's broken dreams @FinancialTimes
Africa


Pity Zimbabwe. For more than 30 years its people have endured
deepening poverty, rampant corruption and systematic human rights
abuses.

But nothing has matched, for scale nor wanton brutality, the slaughter
in the early 1980s of some 15,000 men, women and children in the
southern province of Matabeleland by soldiers of the North
Korea-trained 5 Brigade. And no single act has done more to widen the
divide between the Ndebele-speaking people of the region, long an
opposition stronghold, and the Shona-speaking majority in the rest of
the country — a divide all but certain to be reflected in the election
due at the end of this month.

Stuart Doran, an Australian historian, is not the first person to
investigate the 5 Brigade killings. But he has produced the most
authoritative account of the atrocity, drawing on hitherto classified
files from the UK, Australian and Canadian government archives, as
well as material from Zimbabwe’s Central Intelligence Organisation.

The result, Kingdom, Power, Glory, is a chilling account of the
evolution of a de facto one-party state and of Robert Mugabe’s
ruthless rise to dominance, driven by ambition and his loathing for
fellow nationalist leader Joshua Nkomo.

Victory in the 1980 independence elections was not enough to satisfy
Mugabe’s lust for control, Doran believes. The “real enemy” was not
white Rhodesia but Nkomo and his supporters. Early in 1983 Mugabe
ordered the deployment of 5 Brigade in Matabeleland, a Zapu
stronghold. Their campaign of indiscriminate killings, torture and
acts of brutality left survivors mentally scarred, seeking in vain
acknowledgment of the role of the state, an official apology and
reparation.

The book raises some awkward questions for the British government.
Judging by the frequency with which UK diplomats are cited and the
details they disclose, it seems clear that they were well informed
about the massacres. Yet they did little to alert the outside world
about the unfolding horror. Ten years later it seemed that all had
been forgotten or forgiven. Mugabe was invited on a state visit to
Britain, and awarded an honorary knighthood (later rescinded).

His despotic 37-year reign finally ended last November, when generals
deposed him in a bloodless coup. But the link with the past was not
broken. The man endorsed as Zimbabwe’s new leader was none other than
Mugabe’s counsellor and confidante for more than 30 years, an
ex-guerrilla called Emmerson Mnangagwa— and the first western diplomat
to congratulate the president in person was a UK minister.

Doran says that “from the beginning” of the Matabeleland slaughter
Mugabe’s “point man”, who chaired the Joint High Command, played a
“key role” in the campaign against Zapu and its armed wing, Zipra.
Doran damningly concludes that the man now seeking support at the
ballot box “provided the day-to-day bridge between the political
leadership and the killers in the security services”.

Zimbabwe is paying a high price for this violent past, with its legacy
of ethnic division and economic collapse, lost opportunity and
squandered assets.

read more




Ethiopia's birr black-market evaporates as confidence booms @Reutersafrica
Africa


A “hard currency amnesty” and reform-driven confidence in Ethiopia’s
economy, both at home and abroad, have helped close a once yawning gap
between the official and black market exchange rates for its birr
currency.

As cash - in some cases briefcases full of dollars - pours into banks,
local businesses say they are finally feeling relief from a foreign
exchange crunch that had seen some segments of the economy grind to a
halt.

Businesses and analysts in the capital Addis Ababa told Reuters on
Friday the birr was trading on the parallel market around 28 to the
dollar, close to parity with the official rate and 25 percent firmer
than three months ago.

“All of a sudden this is happening,” said one real estate agent whose
business had come to a standstill over the past year because the
construction sector could not access dollars to import building
materials.

“I’m not sure of the source of the foreign exchange, but
psychologically the scarcity mentality has changed overnight,” the
woman, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

In a televised address earlier this week, 41-year-old reformist Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed called upon those hoarding hard currency to
deposit it in banks.

The call, which has come to be known locally as a “hard currency
amnesty”, came with a warning: those who refused would be tracked
down.

The government this week also opened a diaspora fund bank account and
is asking Ethiopians abroad to contribute. And the United Arab
Emirates last month agreed to deposit $1 billion in Ethiopia’s central
bank.

Though it’s among Africa’s fastest-growing economies, Ethiopia’s
export sector - mainly garment manufacturing and agricultural produce
- has struggled to take off, and the economy is not generating enough
dollars to pay for imports.

A decade-long infrastructure push aimed at industrialising the
overwhelmingly agrarian nation to create jobs has as a side-effect
exacerbated the dollar shortage.

Since earlier this year, essential items including insulin, blood
pressure medication and infant formula have become scarce. The dollar
shortage has also dissuaded international firms from investing out of
fear they will struggle to repatriate profits.

That could now change.

Since taking office in April, Abiy has turned politics and the economy
on its head in the nation of 100 million people.

His moves to liberalise the economy by opening up lucrative
state-owned assets to foreign investment have been cheered by his
people as well as outside investors keen to enter one of Africa’s last
untapped markets.

On Thursday, Abiy’s newly appointed central bank governor, Yinager
Dessie, pledged to meet the business community regularly and pledged
that their main concerns - scant access to credit and foreign exchange
- were government priorities.

Businesses in the capital said their letters of credit, which banks
had declined to honour for months, were finally being approved.

It remains to be seen if the government is now willing to loosen its
grip on foreign exchange access and the exchange rate itself.

Some remain sceptical, but at least for now Ethiopians are breathing a
sigh of relief.

“This morning I was talking to a manager at Commercial Bank of
Ethiopia who told me ‘We are very liquid right now. Let me show you an
example’,” said Zemedeneh Negatu, chairman of Fairfax, a United
States-based, Africa-focused investment firm.

Nearby, three bank employees were counting bills from a briefcase
packed with $1 million in cash that a client had brought in earlier in
the day.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg -4.23% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.4727

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt's Sisi says false rumours main threat to Arab countries.
⁦@alykhansatchu⁩ Sisi:“The Real danger is blowing up countries from
within“.

https://twitter.com/hervegogo/status/1021220314787663873

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.29% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.98% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Shares in Acacia have lost 75 percent of their value since Tanzania introduced the metal-concentrate export ban @BBGAfrica
Africa


It’s been a year since Acacia Mining Plc’s majority shareholder
started talks on its behalf to end a standoff with the Tanzanian
government and interim Chief Executive Officer Peter Geleta is getting
frustrated.

Barrick Gold Corp., which owns about 64 percent of London-based
Acacia, last month withdrew a timetable to resolve the dispute with
Tanzania, after previously indicating it would have a detailed
proposal ready by mid-year. The talks include efforts to lift a ban on
exports of mineral concentrates introduced by the government last
March, which forced the company to stockpile output and curb
production.

“Not being in the room is extremely frustrating,” Geleta said by phone
Friday. “We’re obviously disappointed that the initial timetable given
by Barrick has not been met.”

Shares in Acacia have lost 75 percent of their value since Tanzania
introduced the metal-concentrate export ban, and relations soured
further after the government slapped the miner with a $190 billion tax
bill.

Still, Geleta said he’s confident that a solution will be found and
reiterated the company’s commitment to Tanzania.

Acacia said earlier this year it had received approaches from Chinese
companies interested in its assets in the country and had started
talks with a handful of potential investors about a possible sale of a
stake in one or more of its mines. There’s unlikely to be much
progress on those talks or the company’s ambitions to expand elsewhere
in Africa until there’s a resolution with the Tanzanian government,
Geleta said.

read more



The island nation of Mauritius has set itself apart as the wealthiest country on the African continent on a per capita basis.
Africa


Over the past 10 years (2007 to 2017) total wealth held in Mauritius
has risen by 195% (in US$ terms), making it the fastest growing wealth
market in Africa and one of the top 3 fastest growing worldwide over
this period.

Total wealth held in Mauritius now amounts to US$43 billion, while per
capita wealth (average wealth per person) stands at US$33,000, making
Mauritius the wealthiest country in Africa (on an average wealth per
person basis).

A new report by AfrAsia Bank and New World Wealth has put Mauritius in
focus, looking at why the country has drawn such immense wealth to its
shores.

read more







23-JUL-2018 :: @SafaricomPLC ports its M-Pesa Platform into Ethiopia @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


23-JUL-2018 ::  And for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and for his
counterpart in Asmara, President Isaias Afwerki, they need Growth, it
will provide wind in their sails. And what we know is Mobile Money is
seriously stimulative and at the grass roots.

It has been no secret that Safaricom has been looking to unlock the
geographical expansion opportunity. I recall the Chairman indicating
as much early last Year. The Story has been on background for a while.
In one of its finest financial interventions, DFID via its Financial
Deepening Challenge Fund (FDCF) awarded Vodafone a grant of nearly
£1m, which they were required to match, to begin developing a product
that would leverage mobile phone technology to deliver financial
services in East Africa. I recall [as if it were yesterday] Michael
Joseph taking out his Phone and walking me through probably the very
first iteration of M-Pesa and saying

''We think it will be very sticky'' Stickiness is a good thing, you
will find. You could say that again. In fact, I recall a time when
Airtel came calling and launched an ''irrational'' price war and of
the reasons that Price War went down in flames was the stickiness of
M-Pesa. Of course, M-Pesa has metasized from being largely an
in-country money remittance service. The Flow was one where Folks
working in our Cities needed to move money to their Families who were
dispersed out of town and typically deep in the countryside. M-Pesa
was serving a need and the service at its inception was a ''leapfrog''
level improvement, it was doing the transfer in the ''Now'' versus
maybe a 24 or even 36 hour process of handing your hard earned
''moolah'' to a Matatu driver or Tout to deliver. Consider how the
velocity of money accelerated and how it improved livelihoods at the
fringes. [MIT has done some outstanding research on the upliftment in
particular at the Fringes]. Since then M-Pesa has driven our financial
inclusion numbers off the charts and the M-Pesa Economy has grown by
leaps and bounds. M-Pesa has integrated with the Banks. The PayPal
partnership has meant that anyone anywhere with a Safaricom connection
can transact with the World. Many Folks talk about ''democratisation''
and I can think of no finer example of that characterisation. I
visited Kakuma refugee Camp [the furthest North I had ever visited]
and i keep thinking this place is so far from anywhere and then i
realised but its not because everyone is connected. The Velocity of
Money has surged and I reckon M-Pesa has added more than 1.5% to the
GDP score consistently every year.

''Mpesa has been a growth engine. Whenever theres a cash transaction,
we see an opportunity. Transaction value in 2017 doubled. We are
building the ecosystem to monetise tomorrow'' said Sateesh kamath to
me on the occasion of the release of their Full Year Numbers this
year.

M-Pesa Full Year Revenue expanded +14.2% to clock 62.91b [$624m] and
is currently responsible for 27.83% of Safaricom's total revenue.

Now something can be a ''No-Brainer'' but its also about timing your
market-Entry.

On the 6th of June I wrote Safaricom PLC "This can add up to 20% to
Safaricom's share price. Its a big Deal and Ethiopia is a 100m market
and ripe for the taking for M-PESA in particular''

What has changed in Ethiopia is of course firstly the arrival of Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed whose arrival I rate as the most consequential
arrival of any African Politician since 1994 and when Mandela exited
Prison and soon thereafter became President of the ''Rainbow'' Nation.
PM Abiy has made so many pivots its head-spinning but he has read the
writing on the wall when it came to the Economy. He saw that
notwithstanding the stellar growth numbers, it was running on empty,
FX reserves were down to weeks of import cover. He had to make a move
and pronto. I was at Lunch that KEPSA hosted for the President of the
African Development Bank Akinwumi Adesina and we agreed that Growth
was a Silver Bullet. And for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and for his
counterpart in Asmara, President Isaias Afwerki, they need Growth, it
will provide wind in their sails. And what we know is Mobile Money is
seriously stimulative and at the grass roots.

Reuters reported last week

Kenya’s Safaricom is in “advanced talks” with the Ethiopian government
to introduce its popular M-Pesa mobile money service to neighbouring
Ethiopia, a market of 100 million people, two sources said on Tuesday.

Britain’s Vodafone, Safaricom’s parent company, will license the use
of the M-Pesa trade name to an Ethiopia-based bank while Safaricom
will host the servers in Nairobi, one telecoms industry source told
Reuters.

Ethiopia’s state telecommunications monopoly, Ethio telecom, will
carry the service, the source added. Started in 2007, M-Pesa has
nearly 30 million users in Kenya.

It is ''Abiymania'' which has opened the Ethiopian door wide open for
Safaricom and Kenya inc. It is a singular moment.

read more


@SafaricomPLC share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           28.50
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,141,864,698,000
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 20.652

Safaricom FY Results for the year ended 31st March 2018 vs. 31st March 2017
FY Mpesa Revenue 62.91b vs. 55.08b +14.216%
FY Total revenue 233.72b vs. 212.89b +9.784%
MPesa Customers 20.55m +8.0%

read more


Mpesa has been a growth engine. Whenever theres a cash transaction, we see an opportunity. Transaction value in 2017 double #SafaricomFYResults @sateeshkamath
Kenyan Economy


Mpesa has been a growth engine. Whenever theres a cash transaction, we
see an opportunity. Transaction value in 2017 doubled. Were building
the ecosystem to monetise tomorrow. #SafaricomFYResults @sateeshkamath

read more



The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 14.3x and a dividend yield of 3.8% @CytonnInvest
Kenyan Economy


The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of
14.3x, which is 6.0% above the historical average of 13.5x, and a
dividend yield of 3.8%, which is higher than the historical average of
3.7%. The current P/E valuation of 14.3x is 45.9% above the most
recent trough valuation of 9.8x experienced in the first week of
February 2017, and 72.3% above the previous trough valuation of 8.3x
experienced in December 2011. The charts below indicate the historical
P/E and dividend yields of the market.

read more







For the month of July 2018, the Kenyan Government has issued a new 20-year Treasury bond (FXD 2/2018/20) with the coupon rate set at 13.2%, in a bid to raise Kshs 40.0 bn for budgetary support.
Kenyan Economy


Given that the treasury bonds with the same tenor to maturity are
currently trading at a yield of 13.3%, we expect bids to come in at
between 13.3% and 13.5%.

read more








 
 
N.S.E Today


 In a televised speech, Hassan Rouhani told the American president:
"Do not play with the lion's tail, you will regret it forever."
Mr Rouhani also scoffed at Mr Trump's threat to halt Iranian oil
exports, saying: "Anyone who understands the rudiments of politics
doesn't say 'we will stop Iran's oil exports'.
"We have been the guarantor of the regional waterway's security
throughout history."
Crude Oil bounced around 1%.
President Trump tweeted the following response
To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES
AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW
THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A
COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH.
BE CAUTIOUS!
10-year JGB posted its biggest single-day move in over a year and a
half, going back to before yield curve control came into place.
That strengthened The Japanese Yen to the 111.00 Level.
The Dollar saw selling pressure after Trump said [on Friday]
''The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal
currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are
raising rates - Really?"
Mnangagwa leads Chamisa 40% to 37% among registered likely voters. But
voting intentions of 20% still unknown [Afrobarometer]
I am calling it for Nelson Chamisa.
Egypt's Sisi says false rumours are the main threat to Arab countries.
Sisi:“The Real danger is blowing up countries from within“
President Adesina of the African Development Bank visited last week.
The Bank's current investment portfolio in Kenya is $3.1 billion.
The Nairobi All Share edged up +0.06 pints to close at 172.43
The NSE20 firmed 4.13 points.
Equity Turnover remained subdued at 424.34m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 28.50 but was trading session high of
29.00 +1.75% at the close. Safaricom is a cheap share below 30.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB Group eased back -1.55% to close at 47.50 and traded 1.736m shares.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 11.50 and traded 3.293m shares.
Barclays Bank has posted a +30.208% Total Return through 2018.
Stanbic announced it had increased its  Kenya shareholding to 68% via
a tender to shareholders. They have applied to continue buying shares
through the @NSE_PLC to reach 75% StanBic Kenya closed unchanged at
92.00 but there are only small scraps on offer.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


BAT
reported H1 2018 Earnings where H1 Gross Revenue declined -10.652%
to 17.142b, H1 Profit after Tax slipped -9.31% to 1.948b, H1 Earnings
Per Share declined -9.31% to clock 19.48 a share and the Interim
dividend was maintained at 3.50 a share. BAT said in its accompanying
commentary
Gross revenue reduced by 10% driven by lower domestic volumes
following excise-led price increases, lower cut rag sales offset by
higher export sales and contract manufacturing revenues.
Operating margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 32.9%.
The reduction in net cash generated from operating activities is
driven by lower revenues and timing of working capital movements.
[5.109b] versus [3.735b]
Via a Kestrel Email, I learnt
Exports now contribute 52% of company revenues (compared to 49% in
1H17 and 41% in 1H16) and that Sportsman and Safari now contribute
~75% of local revenues.
BAT had retreated -17.63% in 2018 on a Total Return Basis and the
share price oversold.
BAT rallied +3.333% to close at 620.00 and on heavy volume action of
279,500 shares worth 173.294m and 40.82% of the total value traded at
the Bourse today.

KenGen closed unchanged at 6.90. KenGen is at the lower reaches of its
Trading Range and a reaction higher expected.
--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
Login / Register
 

 
 
Forgot your password? Register Now
 
 
July 2018
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.