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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 26th of July 2018

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Juncker did the Brezhnev and kissed Trump, and Trump tweeted about it,
saying that “obviously” the EU and U.S. “love each other.” US-EU trade
truce is good news for world econ. Yet it is still far too early to
write off risk from a generalized trade war.

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Word(s) of the (heatwave) day : "urban heat island" - an area of town or city that is significantly hotter than its surroundings @RobGMacfarlane

Word(s) of the (heatwave) day : “urban heat island” - an area of town
or city that is significantly hotter than its surroundings, due to
heat generation by human activity & the absorption of sunlight by
roads, buildings etc. The skyscraper canyon, the scorching street...

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On The Road @MagnumPhotos Magnum Photographers

America’s open roads have inspired countless artists and writers, the
expansive landscapes, the empty highways, roadside attractions, pit
stops, the passing ghost towns, as significant, if not more so, than
the eventual destination. Depicted in legendary texts from the likes
of Jack Kerouac, Tom Wolfe, and Hunter S. Thompson, the American road
trip in popular culture offers up a chance to understand the alluring
freedom of the open road. This summer on Magnum Photos, we explore the
American road trips made by Magnum photographers in order to
understand why the idea of road tripping across America has captured
the imagination of so many.

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The Chinese are wary of Donald Trump's creative destruction @FinancialTimes
Law & Politics

Donald Trump is leading a double life. In the west, most foreign
policy experts see him as reckless, unpredictable and self-defeating.
But though many in Asia dislike him as much as the Europeans do, they
see him as a more substantial figure. I have just spent a week in
Beijing talking to officials and intellectuals, many of whom are awed
by his skill as a strategist and tactician.

One of the people I met was the former vice-foreign minister He Yafei.
He shot to global prominence in 2009 when he delivered a
finger-wagging lecture to President Barack Obama at the Copenhagen
climate conference before blowing up hopes of a deal. He is somewhat
less belligerent where Mr Trump is concerned. He worries that
strategic competition has become the new normal and says that “trade
wars are just the tip of the iceberg”.

Few Chinese think that Mr Trump’s primary concern is to rebalance the
bilateral trade deficit. If it were, they say, he would have aligned
with the EU, Japan and Canada against China rather than scooping up
America’s allies in his tariff dragnet. They think the US president’s
goal is nothing less than remaking the global order.

They think Mr Trump feels he is presiding over the relative decline of
his great nation. It is not that the current order does not benefit
the US. The problem is that it benefits others more in relative terms.
To make things worse the US is investing billions of dollars and a
fair amount of blood in supporting the very alliances and
international institutions that are constraining America and
facilitating China’s rise.

In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative
destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing
institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North
American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a
first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more
favourable to Washington.

Once the order is destroyed, the Chinese elite believes, Mr Trump will
move to stage two: renegotiating America’s relationship with other
powers. Because the US is still the most powerful country in the
world, it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a
position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than
through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense
of the strong.

My interlocutors say that Mr Trump is the US first president for more
than 40 years to bash China on three fronts simultaneously: trade,
military and ideology. They describe him as a master tactician,
focusing on one issue at a time, and extracting as many concessions as
he can. They speak of the skilful way Mr Trump has treated President
Xi Jinping. “Look at how he handled North Korea,” one says. “He got Xi
Jinping to agree to UN sanctions [half a dozen] times, creating an
economic stranglehold on the country. China almost turned North Korea
into a sworn enemy of the country.” But they also see him as a
strategist, willing to declare a truce in each area when there are no
more concessions to be had, and then start again with a new front.

For the Chinese, even Mr Trump’s sycophantic press conference with
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, in Helsinki had a strategic
purpose. They see it as Henry Kissinger in reverse. In 1972, the US
nudged China off the Soviet axis in order to put pressure on its real
rival, the Soviet Union. Today Mr Trump is reaching out to Russia in
order to isolate China.

In the short term, China is talking tough in response to Mr Trump’s
trade assault. At the same time they are trying to develop a
multiplayer front against him by reaching out to the EU, Japan and
South Korea. But many Chinese experts are quietly calling for a
rethink of the longer-term strategy. They want to prepare the ground
for a new grand bargain with the US based on Chinese retrenchment.
Many feel that Mr Xi has over-reached and worry that it was a mistake
simultaneously to antagonise the US economically and militarily in the
South China Sea.

Instead, they advocate economic concessions and a pullback from the
aggressive tactics that have characterised China’s recent foreign
policy. They call for a Chinese variant of “splendid isolationism”,
relying on growing the domestic market rather than disrupting other
countries’ economies by exporting industrial surpluses.

So which is the real Mr Trump? The reckless reactionary destroying
critical alliances, or the “stable genius” who is pressuring China?
The answer seems to depend on where you ask the question. Things look
different from Beijing than from Brussels.


Actually The Triangulation of China is something I was thinking the US
would pursue.

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Russia swats away Israeli bluster on Syria @BhadraPunchline
Law & Politics

The Russian version of the visit by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and
Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov to West Jerusalem on July 23
became available, finally, on Wednesday in the nature of a terse TASS
report quoting a ‘military-diplomatic’ source in Moscow as saying that
the visiting Russian officials “looked into the tasks of completing
the anti-terrorist operation in Syria’s South.”

An unnamed Israeli official had earlier floated a story that Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did some tough talking with Lavrov and
“rebuffed” a Russian offer to create a 100-kilometre buffer zone
adjacent to Golan Heights. Netanyahu reportedly insisted that he won’t
be satisfied with anything short of Iran ending its presence in Syria

The first indication that the talks didn’t go well came when Israel
shot down a Syrian jet on July 24 in Quneitra bordering Golan. It was
a calculated act of belligerence by Israel. (The Islamic State
fighters who are present in the region have since released the
photograph of the wreckage and the mutilated body of the Syrian

The TASS report today punctures the Israeli version that the two
Russian officials were deputed by President Vladimir Putin specially
to discuss with Netanyahu the future of Iranian presence in Syria. (It
now transpires that the Russian officials were on a tour of Israel,
Germany and France.) The Israeli bravado can only be seen as a
desperate ploy to cover up its humiliating defeat in Syria with the
terrorist groups that were its proxies surrendering lock, stock and
barrel in Daraa and Quneitra to the Syrian-Russian forces – especially
the hasty exfiltration of the controversial group known as the White
Helmets to Jordan via Golan Heights with the logistical help from the
Israeli military.

Damascus is now turning attention to the liberation of the
northwestern province of Idlib. It will be a major confrontation due
to the presence of a large number of foreign terrorists in
Northwestern Syria. The Iranian media reported that a Russian flag
ship Ro-Ro Sparta was spotted crossing the Bosporus en route to
Syria’s Tartus, carrying military cargo mostly ammunition, shells and
missiles and that the reinforcements are meant for the Syrian Army’s
“upcoming assault” on Idlib province.

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Tesla $TSLA We have an inverted front end of a CDS curve with a $50B equity market cap?? Never seen something like this...@Convertbond
International Trade

Cost of Credit Default Protection

2 Year: 642
5 Year: 641

*CDS curve implies equity should be at least $10B lower, imho

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1734
Dollar Index 94.14
Japan Yen 110.67
Swiss Franc 0.9915
Pound 1.3202
Aussie 0.7436
India Rupee 68.665
South Korea Won 1119.58
Brazil Real 3.6879
Egypt Pound 17.8873
South Africa Rand 13.1276

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Bemba cited his 'experience, management of men, management of security, of the army and also of economic development." #Congo @JoeBavier

"Asked why he should be the sole opposition candidate, #Bemba cited
his 'experience, management of men, management of security, of the
army and also of economic development'." #Congo

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“It is not an obsession. It is so that we, the opposition, can win and
do everything so that a candidate from the opposition can win by
presenting a programme that is credible for the population.”

Bemba, who is popular in western Congo, finished runner-up to Kabila
in the 2006 election, which touched off days of combat in the capital
Kinshasa between militia fighters loyal to him and state troops.

He was arrested in Europe in 2008 and charged with responsibility for
murder, rape and pillage committed by fighters he sent to Central
African Republic in 2002 to back then-president Ange-Felix Patasse.

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The key figures expected to run for president in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila evoked former
dictator Mobutu Sese Seko when he addressed lawmakers anxious to hear
whether he’ll run for president again.

“I know why there is some tension in the room,” he told the packed
chambers of parliament in the capital, Kinshasa, on July 20. “It’s
because there are those who think that today I would say ‘Ladies and
gentlemen, understand my emotion!’ I will not say ‘Understand my
emotion!,’ but rather ‘Understand my passion for Congo!”’

Twenty-eight years ago, Mobutu, in power since 1965, tearfully uttered
the first phrase as he announced the end of one-party rule and plans
to usher in democracy -- a pledge he failed to honor before a civil
war erupted. What Kabila meant by the second phrase may become clearer
in the next two weeks, as the electoral authority on Wednesday opens
registration for candidates planning to compete in the vote set to be
held on Dec. 23.

Any attempts by Kabila to extend his 17-year rule would outrage his
opponents and risks destabilizing the world’s largest cobalt producer,
which hasn’t had a peaceful transfer of power since it gained
independence from Belgium in 1960. Congo’s constitution bars the
47-year-old leader, who won elections in 2006 and 2011, from seeking a
third term, but his critics fear he may alter or reinterpret the rules
to run again.

Opposition groups have raised the possibility of withdrawing from the
elections if Kabila stands, but whoever fronts the campaign of the
ruling Common Front for Congo, whether the incumbent or a dauphin,
will likely face one or more opponents capable of drawing large crowds
in parts of the vast country. Aspirants must file their candidacies by
Aug. 8. The following are the key personalities tipped to run for
president in December:

Felix Tshisekedi, 55, succeeded his late father Etienne as the head of
Congo’s largest and oldest opposition party in March and has already
been designated its presidential candidate. While he’s yet to command
the levels of devotion inspired by his father, Tshisekedi could score
well in the central Kasai region and Kinshasa. Until 2016, he was
mainly based in Belgium, removed from Congo’s political fray, which
might count against him.

Moise Katumbi, a onetime Kabila ally, has fared best of all potential
candidates in recent nationwide polls, but his ability to participate
in elections is in serious doubt. The former governor of cobalt-rich
Katanga province announced his bid to succeed his old boss in 2016 and
has built a platform called Together for Change, but he faces legal
challenges. Already convicted for illegally selling a property,
Katumbi is the subject of investigations into allegations he hired
mercenaries and held dual nationality while an elected official.
Katumbi, 53, says the probes are politically motivated. He plans to
return to Congo from Belgium by the close of registration and may face

Jean-Pierre Bemba, 55, was acquitted of war crimes at the
International Criminal Court in June, after spending a decade in
prison in The Hague. He was one of four vice presidents who served
under a power-sharing arrangement for three years from 2003 and came
second in the 2006 election. Bemba fled Kinshasa after his troops
clashed with Kabila’s and was later given an 18-year sentence for
murders and rapes committed in 2002 and 2003 in neighboring Central
African Republic by fighters from the Congolese rebel group he then
led. His unexpected return to the political scene is a wild card.
Bemba’s party, the Movement for the Liberation of Congo, has selected
him as its presidential candidate and he’s set to return to Congo on
Aug. 1. He could perform well in west and northwest Congo -- if the
authorities don’t obstruct his bid.

Vital Kamerhe, 59, cut his political teeth as a close associate of
Kabila and ran the president’s first campaign in 2006. He was an
effective president of the National Assembly following the election
until 2010, when he broke with the ruling party to establish his own
opposition group. Kamerhe finished third in a presidential election
the following year, picking up 31votes in his eastern home region of
South Kivu, where he may do well again. His party, the Union for the
Congolese Nation, is set to pick its candidate on Aug. 4.


Kabila still owns the landscape.

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The astounding alacrity with which the new president of Angola flushed down the toilet a presumed deal not to go after the erstwhile robbers of Angola's public resources @garama2

The astounding alacrity with which the new president of Angola flushed
down the toilet a presumed deal not to go after the erstwhile robbers
of Angola's public resources and family of Dos Santos could be the
reason Kabila seems intent to stay in power or die trying. Trapped

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This one week after Juba summoned the French ambassador over these remarks

The French Ambassador to South Sudan has condemned the killing of
hundreds of civilians, including children and the elderly, in what the
UN called “deliberate and ruthless attacks” in parts of Unity State.

Ambassador Jean-Yves Roux responding to a UN report detailing horrific
human rights violations against civilians by the SPLA and allied
forces, said those accused of the crimes should and must be held

“Those responsible of that barbary can be, and must be, caught,
judged, and punished,” he recommended.

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Eyeing Trump, China, South Africa call for trade cooperation at BRICS summit

Trump’s warnings have given Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa fresh impetus to enhance trade cooperation, and officials at a
three-day summit that kicked off in Johannesburg on Wednesday found a
collective voice championing global trade.

The meeting of presidents from the trade bloc is the first since
Trump’s administration launched a push to rebalance trade
multilateralism that Trump has deemed unfair, relationships which the
United States once championed.

“It is our sincere obligation to showcase our commitment towards the
multilateral trading system, to safeguard the existence of the WTO
(World Trade Organisation) and also show our clear and strong position
against any unilateral action and protectionism,” Zhang Shaogang,
Director General in the Ministry of Commerce of China, told the summit
of BRICS member states.

“Trade and investment cooperation is the propeller for overarching
BRICS cooperation. We need to make our cooperation more pragmatic and

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@AlikoDangote Group has said that @StanChart was arranging funds for the project

Lenders would commit about $3.15 billion, with the World Bank’s
private sector arm providing $150 million, Dangote said, adding that
he was investing more than 60 percent from his own cash flow.
Dangote Group has said that Standard Chartered Bank was arranging
funds for the project.
“We will end up spending between $12 billion to $14 billion. The
funding is going to come through equity, commercial bank loans, export
credit agencies and developmental banks,” Dangote said in an interview
in Lagos on Tuesday.
“Hopefully, we will finish mechanical (construction) by next year and
products will start coming out in the first quarter of 2020.”
Nigeria’s central bank would provide guarantees for about 575 billion
naira in local currency for 10 years, with African Development Bank
providing a $300 million loan. Trade banks from China, India and some
European countries are also in the mix, Dangote said.
The planned refinery and petrochemical complex is expected to account
for half of Dangote’s sprawling assets when it is finished next year.
Last week Dangote signed a loan of $650 million with the African
Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) for the project.

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Kenyan Economy

“I expect rates to be held in check. The rate cap has interfered with
monetary policy transmission and its repeal or substantive
modification is, I believe, required as a sine qua non for normalised
monetary policy operations,” he said.

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@Tullowoil Suspends Oil Trucking in Kenya. British Oil Major Cites Worried About Losses in Delay's @CTNSIS
Kenyan Economy

British Oil Company, Tullow Oil, announced it has stopped trucking oil
from its Kenyan fields on Wednesday. According to Chief Executive Paul
McDade, Tullow Oil has stopped works on its Kenyan oil fields and it’s
trucking operations to move the crude to the Port of Mombasa due to
security concerns.

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Kenya's oldest mortgage lender wants to offload every single loan on its books
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s oldest stand-alone mortgage provider plans to offload its
entire home-loans book only to build it up again.

HF Group Ltd. expects to benefit from the government’s push to
construct 500,000 affordable homes over the next five years to try
narrow a shortfall at least five times that size. The government is
creating Kenya Mortgage Refinance Co., which will provide funding to
lenders, and allow companies like HF Group to sell existing loans to
the new entity to free up capital, Chief Executive Officer Sam Waweru

“We can release, off the top of my head, about 50 billion shillings
($498 million) from our own book,” Waweru said in an interview in the
capital, Nairobi. “That would mean we can lend another 50 billion
shillings to the economy immediately. We’ll bundle together the
mortgages we have written over the years.”

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +1.19% 2018

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.73% 2018

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2018

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