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Thursday 26th of July 2018 |
Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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Africa |
Juncker did the Brezhnev and kissed Trump, and Trump tweeted about it, saying that “obviously” the EU and U.S. “love each other.” US-EU trade truce is good news for world econ. Yet it is still far too early to write off risk from a generalized trade war.
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On The Road @MagnumPhotos Magnum Photographers Africa |
America’s open roads have inspired countless artists and writers, the expansive landscapes, the empty highways, roadside attractions, pit stops, the passing ghost towns, as significant, if not more so, than the eventual destination. Depicted in legendary texts from the likes of Jack Kerouac, Tom Wolfe, and Hunter S. Thompson, the American road trip in popular culture offers up a chance to understand the alluring freedom of the open road. This summer on Magnum Photos, we explore the American road trips made by Magnum photographers in order to understand why the idea of road tripping across America has captured the imagination of so many.
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The Chinese are wary of Donald Trump's creative destruction @FinancialTimes Law & Politics |
Donald Trump is leading a double life. In the west, most foreign policy experts see him as reckless, unpredictable and self-defeating. But though many in Asia dislike him as much as the Europeans do, they see him as a more substantial figure. I have just spent a week in Beijing talking to officials and intellectuals, many of whom are awed by his skill as a strategist and tactician.
One of the people I met was the former vice-foreign minister He Yafei. He shot to global prominence in 2009 when he delivered a finger-wagging lecture to President Barack Obama at the Copenhagen climate conference before blowing up hopes of a deal. He is somewhat less belligerent where Mr Trump is concerned. He worries that strategic competition has become the new normal and says that “trade wars are just the tip of the iceberg”.
Few Chinese think that Mr Trump’s primary concern is to rebalance the bilateral trade deficit. If it were, they say, he would have aligned with the EU, Japan and Canada against China rather than scooping up America’s allies in his tariff dragnet. They think the US president’s goal is nothing less than remaking the global order.
They think Mr Trump feels he is presiding over the relative decline of his great nation. It is not that the current order does not benefit the US. The problem is that it benefits others more in relative terms. To make things worse the US is investing billions of dollars and a fair amount of blood in supporting the very alliances and international institutions that are constraining America and facilitating China’s rise.
In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.
Once the order is destroyed, the Chinese elite believes, Mr Trump will move to stage two: renegotiating America’s relationship with other powers. Because the US is still the most powerful country in the world, it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong.
My interlocutors say that Mr Trump is the US first president for more than 40 years to bash China on three fronts simultaneously: trade, military and ideology. They describe him as a master tactician, focusing on one issue at a time, and extracting as many concessions as he can. They speak of the skilful way Mr Trump has treated President Xi Jinping. “Look at how he handled North Korea,” one says. “He got Xi Jinping to agree to UN sanctions [half a dozen] times, creating an economic stranglehold on the country. China almost turned North Korea into a sworn enemy of the country.” But they also see him as a strategist, willing to declare a truce in each area when there are no more concessions to be had, and then start again with a new front.
For the Chinese, even Mr Trump’s sycophantic press conference with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, in Helsinki had a strategic purpose. They see it as Henry Kissinger in reverse. In 1972, the US nudged China off the Soviet axis in order to put pressure on its real rival, the Soviet Union. Today Mr Trump is reaching out to Russia in order to isolate China.
In the short term, China is talking tough in response to Mr Trump’s trade assault. At the same time they are trying to develop a multiplayer front against him by reaching out to the EU, Japan and South Korea. But many Chinese experts are quietly calling for a rethink of the longer-term strategy. They want to prepare the ground for a new grand bargain with the US based on Chinese retrenchment. Many feel that Mr Xi has over-reached and worry that it was a mistake simultaneously to antagonise the US economically and militarily in the South China Sea.
Instead, they advocate economic concessions and a pullback from the aggressive tactics that have characterised China’s recent foreign policy. They call for a Chinese variant of “splendid isolationism”, relying on growing the domestic market rather than disrupting other countries’ economies by exporting industrial surpluses.
So which is the real Mr Trump? The reckless reactionary destroying critical alliances, or the “stable genius” who is pressuring China? The answer seems to depend on where you ask the question. Things look different from Beijing than from Brussels.
Conclusions
Actually The Triangulation of China is something I was thinking the US would pursue.
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Russia swats away Israeli bluster on Syria @BhadraPunchline Law & Politics |
The Russian version of the visit by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov to West Jerusalem on July 23 became available, finally, on Wednesday in the nature of a terse TASS report quoting a ‘military-diplomatic’ source in Moscow as saying that the visiting Russian officials “looked into the tasks of completing the anti-terrorist operation in Syria’s South.”
An unnamed Israeli official had earlier floated a story that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did some tough talking with Lavrov and “rebuffed” a Russian offer to create a 100-kilometre buffer zone adjacent to Golan Heights. Netanyahu reportedly insisted that he won’t be satisfied with anything short of Iran ending its presence in Syria conclusively.
The first indication that the talks didn’t go well came when Israel shot down a Syrian jet on July 24 in Quneitra bordering Golan. It was a calculated act of belligerence by Israel. (The Islamic State fighters who are present in the region have since released the photograph of the wreckage and the mutilated body of the Syrian pilot.)
The TASS report today punctures the Israeli version that the two Russian officials were deputed by President Vladimir Putin specially to discuss with Netanyahu the future of Iranian presence in Syria. (It now transpires that the Russian officials were on a tour of Israel, Germany and France.) The Israeli bravado can only be seen as a desperate ploy to cover up its humiliating defeat in Syria with the terrorist groups that were its proxies surrendering lock, stock and barrel in Daraa and Quneitra to the Syrian-Russian forces – especially the hasty exfiltration of the controversial group known as the White Helmets to Jordan via Golan Heights with the logistical help from the Israeli military.
Damascus is now turning attention to the liberation of the northwestern province of Idlib. It will be a major confrontation due to the presence of a large number of foreign terrorists in Northwestern Syria. The Iranian media reported that a Russian flag ship Ro-Ro Sparta was spotted crossing the Bosporus en route to Syria’s Tartus, carrying military cargo mostly ammunition, shells and missiles and that the reinforcements are meant for the Syrian Army’s “upcoming assault” on Idlib province.
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Africa |
“It is not an obsession. It is so that we, the opposition, can win and do everything so that a candidate from the opposition can win by presenting a programme that is credible for the population.”
Bemba, who is popular in western Congo, finished runner-up to Kabila in the 2006 election, which touched off days of combat in the capital Kinshasa between militia fighters loyal to him and state troops.
He was arrested in Europe in 2008 and charged with responsibility for murder, rape and pillage committed by fighters he sent to Central African Republic in 2002 to back then-president Ange-Felix Patasse.
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The key figures expected to run for president in the Democratic Republic of Congo Africa |
Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila evoked former dictator Mobutu Sese Seko when he addressed lawmakers anxious to hear whether he’ll run for president again.
“I know why there is some tension in the room,” he told the packed chambers of parliament in the capital, Kinshasa, on July 20. “It’s because there are those who think that today I would say ‘Ladies and gentlemen, understand my emotion!’ I will not say ‘Understand my emotion!,’ but rather ‘Understand my passion for Congo!”’
Twenty-eight years ago, Mobutu, in power since 1965, tearfully uttered the first phrase as he announced the end of one-party rule and plans to usher in democracy -- a pledge he failed to honor before a civil war erupted. What Kabila meant by the second phrase may become clearer in the next two weeks, as the electoral authority on Wednesday opens registration for candidates planning to compete in the vote set to be held on Dec. 23.
Any attempts by Kabila to extend his 17-year rule would outrage his opponents and risks destabilizing the world’s largest cobalt producer, which hasn’t had a peaceful transfer of power since it gained independence from Belgium in 1960. Congo’s constitution bars the 47-year-old leader, who won elections in 2006 and 2011, from seeking a third term, but his critics fear he may alter or reinterpret the rules to run again.
Opposition groups have raised the possibility of withdrawing from the elections if Kabila stands, but whoever fronts the campaign of the ruling Common Front for Congo, whether the incumbent or a dauphin, will likely face one or more opponents capable of drawing large crowds in parts of the vast country. Aspirants must file their candidacies by Aug. 8. The following are the key personalities tipped to run for president in December:
Felix Tshisekedi, 55, succeeded his late father Etienne as the head of Congo’s largest and oldest opposition party in March and has already been designated its presidential candidate. While he’s yet to command the levels of devotion inspired by his father, Tshisekedi could score well in the central Kasai region and Kinshasa. Until 2016, he was mainly based in Belgium, removed from Congo’s political fray, which might count against him.
Moise Katumbi, a onetime Kabila ally, has fared best of all potential candidates in recent nationwide polls, but his ability to participate in elections is in serious doubt. The former governor of cobalt-rich Katanga province announced his bid to succeed his old boss in 2016 and has built a platform called Together for Change, but he faces legal challenges. Already convicted for illegally selling a property, Katumbi is the subject of investigations into allegations he hired mercenaries and held dual nationality while an elected official. Katumbi, 53, says the probes are politically motivated. He plans to return to Congo from Belgium by the close of registration and may face arrest.
Jean-Pierre Bemba, 55, was acquitted of war crimes at the International Criminal Court in June, after spending a decade in prison in The Hague. He was one of four vice presidents who served under a power-sharing arrangement for three years from 2003 and came second in the 2006 election. Bemba fled Kinshasa after his troops clashed with Kabila’s and was later given an 18-year sentence for murders and rapes committed in 2002 and 2003 in neighboring Central African Republic by fighters from the Congolese rebel group he then led. His unexpected return to the political scene is a wild card. Bemba’s party, the Movement for the Liberation of Congo, has selected him as its presidential candidate and he’s set to return to Congo on Aug. 1. He could perform well in west and northwest Congo -- if the authorities don’t obstruct his bid.
Vital Kamerhe, 59, cut his political teeth as a close associate of Kabila and ran the president’s first campaign in 2006. He was an effective president of the National Assembly following the election until 2010, when he broke with the ruling party to establish his own opposition group. Kamerhe finished third in a presidential election the following year, picking up 31votes in his eastern home region of South Kivu, where he may do well again. His party, the Union for the Congolese Nation, is set to pick its candidate on Aug. 4.
Conclusions
Kabila still owns the landscape.
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This one week after Juba summoned the French ambassador over these remarks Africa |
The French Ambassador to South Sudan has condemned the killing of hundreds of civilians, including children and the elderly, in what the UN called “deliberate and ruthless attacks” in parts of Unity State.
Ambassador Jean-Yves Roux responding to a UN report detailing horrific human rights violations against civilians by the SPLA and allied forces, said those accused of the crimes should and must be held accountable.
“Those responsible of that barbary can be, and must be, caught, judged, and punished,” he recommended.
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Eyeing Trump, China, South Africa call for trade cooperation at BRICS summit Africa |
Trump’s warnings have given Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa fresh impetus to enhance trade cooperation, and officials at a three-day summit that kicked off in Johannesburg on Wednesday found a collective voice championing global trade.
The meeting of presidents from the trade bloc is the first since Trump’s administration launched a push to rebalance trade multilateralism that Trump has deemed unfair, relationships which the United States once championed.
“It is our sincere obligation to showcase our commitment towards the multilateral trading system, to safeguard the existence of the WTO (World Trade Organisation) and also show our clear and strong position against any unilateral action and protectionism,” Zhang Shaogang, Director General in the Ministry of Commerce of China, told the summit of BRICS member states.
“Trade and investment cooperation is the propeller for overarching BRICS cooperation. We need to make our cooperation more pragmatic and institutionalised.”
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@AlikoDangote Group has said that @StanChart was arranging funds for the project Africa |
Lenders would commit about $3.15 billion, with the World Bank’s private sector arm providing $150 million, Dangote said, adding that he was investing more than 60 percent from his own cash flow. Dangote Group has said that Standard Chartered Bank was arranging funds for the project. “We will end up spending between $12 billion to $14 billion. The funding is going to come through equity, commercial bank loans, export credit agencies and developmental banks,” Dangote said in an interview in Lagos on Tuesday. “Hopefully, we will finish mechanical (construction) by next year and products will start coming out in the first quarter of 2020.” Nigeria’s central bank would provide guarantees for about 575 billion naira in local currency for 10 years, with African Development Bank providing a $300 million loan. Trade banks from China, India and some European countries are also in the mix, Dangote said. The planned refinery and petrochemical complex is expected to account for half of Dangote’s sprawling assets when it is finished next year. Last week Dangote signed a loan of $650 million with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) for the project.
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Kenyan Economy |
“I expect rates to be held in check. The rate cap has interfered with monetary policy transmission and its repeal or substantive modification is, I believe, required as a sine qua non for normalised monetary policy operations,” he said.
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Kenya's oldest mortgage lender wants to offload every single loan on its books Kenyan Economy |
Kenya’s oldest stand-alone mortgage provider plans to offload its entire home-loans book only to build it up again.
HF Group Ltd. expects to benefit from the government’s push to construct 500,000 affordable homes over the next five years to try narrow a shortfall at least five times that size. The government is creating Kenya Mortgage Refinance Co., which will provide funding to lenders, and allow companies like HF Group to sell existing loans to the new entity to free up capital, Chief Executive Officer Sam Waweru said.
“We can release, off the top of my head, about 50 billion shillings ($498 million) from our own book,” Waweru said in an interview in the capital, Nairobi. “That would mean we can lend another 50 billion shillings to the economy immediately. We’ll bundle together the mortgages we have written over the years.”
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