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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 03rd of July 2018

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Iran's Policy to Stem Currency Decline Backfires @business

The Iranian central bank’s efforts to stem the rial’s decline and
stamp out the currency black market have backfired, undercutting
President Hassan Rouhani’s case that he can parry the U.S. war on the
Iranian economy.

Rather than choking off the illegal transactions, the introduction of
a fixed exchange rate in April has encouraged some traders to
profiteer by charging higher black market prices for goods they
imported with dollars bought at the lower official rate, officials
say. Ordinary Iranians are up in arms over the enrichment of wealthy
businesses while they’re being squeezed financially by the looming
Nov. 4 renewal of U.S. sanctions.

“Corruption is like a termite and a main factor in economic
instability in our country,” Minister for Information and
Communications Technology Jalal Azari Jahromi, who released details
about the importers’ financial maneuvers, wrote on Twitter on

The disclosures fed into the social unrest over rising prices and
water shortages in parts of Tehran and the oil-rich southwest, amid
the certainty that life is going to be much tougher now that the U.S.
has pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal. Last week, protests broke out
at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, where gold and jewelry traders shuttered
shops and demonstrated against rising prices and the weakening rial.
The phrase “transparency in currency allocation” has become a trending
social media topic in Persian.


Coercive Financial warfare.

Home Thoughts

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Amboseli 'The Circle of Life' @David_Yarrow

Amboseli is one of the best canvases to work with in the world, I
almost always return to Nairobi with something. But this image ‘The
Circle of Life’ stood out and the reaction from those I quickly showed
it to homed in on the image’s grace and serenity.

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The Kids Have Their Say writes Pankaj Mishra
Law & Politics

The landslide victory of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico’s
presidential elections comes two months after the startling return to
power in Malaysia of Mahathir Mohamad and, on a smaller scale, a week
after the wholly unexpected triumph in a New York Democratic primary
of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old novice politician.

What’s strikingly common to the rise of Obrador, Mohamad,
Ocasio-Cortez and many other disparate figures is their fervent
support among young voters. Many youth today feel cheated of a better
future by their leaders. And their frustrations are sparking a massive
generational renewal in politics — if one largely ignored so far by a
mainstream media that’s unable to see that the suave, globally
networked, technocratic leaders it has supported are viewed as
failures or hoaxes by many young people.

Lecturing at the Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City earlier
this year, I heard of the furious student protests there in 2011,
which forced then-presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto to seek
shelter in a bathroom. Hailed by the Economist as a “charismatic
reformer,” and praised by Tony Blair for putting Mexico on the right
path, Peña Nieto turned out to be his country’s most unpopular
president in decades.

The student movement against inept politicians like him developed into
Wikipolitica, a coalition of young men and women striving for
accountability in electoral politics. Likewise, political energies
imperceptibly built up in Malaysia, where in May young people — 40
percent of the electorate — helped unseat their outrageously sleazy
prime minister, Najib Razak.

Shadowed by public suspicion since 2006, when two of his bodyguards
murdered a Mongolian model, Najib was still being described in 2010 by
the Economist as “a British-educated economist” who was supposedly a
“more sure-footed, and less scandal-prone, leader than many expected.”
Najib is now accused of purloining nearly $700 million from the state
exchequer, spending part of it on Hermes bags for his wife. (He denies
the charges.)

The general loathing of venal, nepotistic and unaccountable elites
grew so intense in Malaysia that it overcame even the country’s
entrenched loyalties and patronage networks that had, as in Mexico,
kept the same party in power for decades.

Disaffected with established parties, young people have suddenly
emerged as a potent force capable of pulling off extraordinary
political upsets. Ocasio-Cortez, who defeated a heavily favored
19-year incumbent in New York, was an activist in Bernie Sanders’s
2016 presidential campaign, which itself seemed almost entirely driven
by young Americans.

Indeed, Hillary Clinton’s failure to bring enough young voters to the
polls contributed to her defeat by Donald Trump. At the same time,
people under the age of 30 made the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon a
credible presidential candidate in the French presidential election.

Young people in Britain also turned out to vote in the 2017 U.K.
general election in greater numbers than at any other point in recent
decades; they helped transform Jeremy Corbyn from a marginal activist
into a potential prime minister.

The gerontocrats knows the youthful dynamic that has empowered them
could just as easily turn against them. Contrary to many of its
obituaries, democracy is being revitalized by the young — infused with
a contrarian energy after decades of a complacent consensus among the
middle-aged and the well-off. Political-party mechanisms will have to
grow more responsive to it, or risk becoming rapidly obsolete.

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"Youthquake", defined as "a significant cultural, political, or social change arising from the actions or influence of young people" #MarchForOurLives
Law & Politics

“Youthquake”, defined as “a significant cultural, political, or social
change arising from the actions or influence of young people”, has
been selected by Oxford Dictionaries as the 2017 word of the year.

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A New Revolution in Mexico @NewYorker
Law & Politics

The first time that Andrés Manuel López Obrador ran for President of
Mexico, in 2006, he inspired such devotion among his partisans that
they sometimes stuck notes in his pockets, inscribed with their hopes
for their families. In an age defined by globalism, he was an advocate
of the working class—and also a critic of the pri, the party that has
ruthlessly dominated national politics for much of the past century.
In the election, his voters’ fervor was evidently not enough; he lost,
by a tiny margin. The second time he ran, in 2012, the enthusiasm was
the same, and so was the outcome. Now, though, Mexico is in
crisis—beset from inside by corruption and drug violence, and from
outside by the antagonism of the Trump Administration. There are new
Presidential elections on July 1st, and López Obrador is running on a
promise to remake Mexico in the spirit of its founding
revolutionaries. If the polls can be believed, he is almost certain to

When he entered, his supporters got to their feet and chanted, “It’s
an honor to vote for López Obrador!” Many of them were farmworkers,
wearing straw hats and scuffed boots. He urged them to install Party
observers at polling stations to prevent fraud, but cautioned against
buying votes, a long-established habit of the pri. “That’s what we’re
getting rid of,” he said. He promised a “sober, austere government—a
government without privilege.” López Obrador frequently uses
“privilege” as a term of disparagement, along with “élite,” and,
especially, “power mafia,” as he describes his enemies in the
political and business communities. “We are going to lower the
salaries of those who are on top to increase the salaries of those on
the bottom,” he said, and added a Biblical assurance: “Everything I am
saying will be done.” López Obrador spoke in a warm voice, leaving
long pauses and using simple phrases that ordinary people would
understand. He has a penchant for rhymes and repeated slogans, and at
times the crowd joined in, like fans at a pop concert. When he said,
“We don’t want to help the power mafia to . . . ,” a man in the
audience finished his sentence: “keep stealing.” Working together,
López Obrador said, “we are going to make history.”

López Obrador flies coach, and travels from town to town in a two-car
caravan, with drivers who double as unarmed bodyguards; he has no
other security measures in place, except for inconsistent efforts to
obscure which hotel he is staying in. On the street, people approach
him constantly to ask for selfies, and he greets them all with
equanimity, presenting a warm, slightly inscrutable façade. “amlo is
like an abstract painting—you see what you want to see in him,” Luis
Miguel González, the editorial director of the newspaper El
Economista, told me. One of his characteristic gestures during
speeches is to demonstrate affection by hugging himself and leaning
toward the crowd.

Jacobson recalled that, after Trump was elected, López Obrador
lamented, “Mexicans will never elect someone who is not a politician.”
This was telling, she thought. “He is clearly a politician,” she said.
“But, like Trump, he has always presented himself as an outsider.” He
was born in 1953, to a family of shopkeepers in Tabasco state, in a
village called Tepetitán. Tabasco, on the Gulf of Mexico, is bisected
by rivers that regularly flood its towns; in both its climate and the
feistiness of its local politics, it can resemble Louisiana. One
observer recalled that López Obrador joked, “Politics is a perfect
blend of passion and reason. But I’m tabasqueño, a hundred per cent
passion!” His nickname, El Peje, is derived from pejelagarto—Tabasco’s
freshwater gar, an ancient, primitive fish with a face like an

 “He has always been very determined to get to the Presidency,” she
said. “Like an arrow, straight and unswerving.”

At a lunch with businessmen in Culiacán, the capital of Sinaloa state,
López Obrador tested some ideas. “What we want to do is to carry out
the transformation that this country needs,” he began. “Things can’t
go on as they are.” He spoke in a conversational tone, and the crowd
gradually seemed to grow more sympathetic. “We’re going to end the
corruption, the impunity, and the privileges enjoyed by a small
élite,” he said. “Once we do, the leaders of this country can recover
their moral and political authority. And we’ll also clean up the image
of Mexico in the rest of the world, because right now all that Mexico
is known for is violence and corruption.”

López Obrador spoke about helping the poor, but when he talked about
corruption he focussed on the political class. “Five million pesos a
month in pension for ex-Presidents!” he said, and grimaced. “All of
that has to end.” He noted that there were hundreds of Presidential
jets and helicopters, and said, “We’re going to sell them to Trump.”
The audience laughed, and he added, “We’ll use the money from the sale
for public investment, and thus foment private investment to generate

In López Obrador’s speech, he likened the current administration to
the despots and colonists who had controlled the country before the
revolution. He attacked the “colossal dishonesty” that he said had
characterized the “neoliberal” policies of Mexico’s last few
governments. “The country’s leaders have devoted themselves . . . to
concessioning off the national territory,” he said. With his
Presidency, the government would “cease to be a factory that produces
Mexico’s nouveaux riches.”

When López Obrador is asked how he will pay for them, he tends to
offer a similarly seductive answer. “It’s not a problem!” he said, in
one speech. “There is money. What there is is corruption, and we’re
going to stop it.” By getting rid of official corruption, he has
calculated, Mexico could save ten per cent of its national budget.
Corruption is a major issue for López Obrador.

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AMLO wins 53% of the votes - 31 percentage points more than his closest rival @ianbremmer
Law & Politics

That’s the largest margin of victory in a Mexican presidential
election since 1982 (before the country became a full democracy).

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02-JUL-2018 :: Ethiopia Rising. @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

Abiy Ahmed Ali (Amharic: አብይ አህመድ አሊ, Oromo: Abiyyi Ahimad Alii; born
15 August 1976) was appointed the 12th Prime Minister of Ethiopia on 2
April 2018. He grew up in a Muslim family (Ahmed Ali, his Oromo
father; Tezeta Wolde, his mother) and with Oromo Muslim and Christian
grandparents. He is evidently a Virilian and Gladwellian Figure.

“To create one contagious movement, you often have to create many
small movements first.”

“Look at the world around you. It may seem like an immovable,
implacable place. It is not, With the slightest push — in just the
right place — it can be tipped.” — Malcolm Gladwell

He has been Prime Minster for 90 days. During those 90 days, he has
criss crossed the Country, he has ended a State of Emergency, released
thousands of Political Prisoners, thawed relations with Eritrea [29
Mar 2018 H.E. Abiy Ahmed @PM_AbiyAhmed - It is time. Lets build a wall
of love between #Ethiopia & #Eritrea], bagged a $1b from the U.A.E.'s
MBZ, announced a dramatic economic about-turn and thats not the end of
it. In Matters language and linguistics he has tapped into a ''Nelson
Mandela'' 1994 mood. These 90 or so days represent the most
consequential arrival of an African Politician on the African Stage
since Mandela walked out of prison blinking in the sunlight and
constructed his ''Rainbow Nation''

I was watching the France Argentina Game and the arrival of Kylian
Mbappe on the World Stage at the tender age of 19. I recalled watching
the Whirling Dervishes of the Mevlevi order on a night of a full moon
in Konya, Turkey. And i thought to myself what do they all have in
common with Abiy Ahmed. Its all about Speed and Velocity. Paul Virilio
terms it  'dromology', which he defined as the "science (or logic) of
speed“.  He notes that the speed at which something happens may change
its essential nature, and that which moves with speed quickly comes to
dominate that which is slower.

'Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territory
is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a
matter of movement and circulation.'

Virilio argues that the traditional feudal fortified city disappeared
because of the increasing sophistication of weapons and possibilities
for warfare. For Virilio, the concept of siege warfare became rather a
war of movement.

Abiy Ahmed has moved at lightning speed, the Old Guard is like ''the
traditional feudal fortified city''

He said on 19 JUN 18 "The ppl of Tigray are still begging for a drop
of water; TPLF [the party[ is not the people of Tigray"

On the same day he said, "we are in debt, we have to pay back but we
can't. And secondarily, we aren't able to finish projects we have
started." and announced his economic Pivot. Of course, the downside
risk of all this infrastructure is plain to see and Sri Lanka and the
Tale of its Hambantota Port is now a cautionary Tale. FX reserves were
at less than a month's worth of imports and something needed to be
done. Expectations are high. The Prime Minister needs to execute real
quick on the economic front but if he levels the playing Field, a
whole Troop of folks will be looking to pile in. That Troop will
include the Ethiopian Diaspora, Foreign Investors and i am sure our
very own Safaricom who must have already presented the Prime minister
with a copy of the MIT research on M-Pesa which confirmed access to
mobile-money services increased daily per capita consumption levels of
two percent of Kenyan households, lifting them out of extreme poverty.

Abiy Ahmed's first 90 days have been as remarkable as the less than 90
minutes of France's Mbappe's performance on Saturday.

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China turbulence knocks Asian mkts to 9mth low as trade war fears grow. Shanghai Comp lowest in 28mths @Schuldensuehner
International Trade

China turbulence knocks Asian mkts to 9mth low as trade war fears
grow. Shanghai Comp lowest in 28mths. Yuan slumped once again amid
debate surrounding impact of escalating trade war & fear of contagion.
US Treasury yields dipped. Euro steady after Merkel resolved migration

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Japan's currency has risen against every single Group-of-10 peer in the first half, with an average 4.8 percent gain @business
International Trade

That’s outpaced the dollar, which has trumped 8 peers and advanced 2.9 percent.

“The focus for the second half is yen crosses,” said Daisuke Karakama,
chief market economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. The currency is
weak on a real effective exchange rate basis, and there are a number
of risk-off events which suggest that “the yen is bound to rise. The
magnitude for adjustment is great,” he said.

“Pressures for yen appreciation will come from emerging currencies,”
according to Mizuho’s Karakama. “Another tantrum in emerging markets
is possible as the U.S. marks a year of winding down its balance

In the first half, the Turkish lira has dropped almost 19 percent
against the Japanese currency, the Indian rupee 8.3 percent and the
Korean won 5.6 percent.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1642
Dollar Index 94.83
Japan Yen 111.04
Swiss Franc 0.9938
Pound 1.3144
Aussie 0.7372
India Rupee 68.94
South Korea Won 1119.01
Brazil Real 3.9140
Egypt Pound 17.8923
South Africa Rand 13.8579

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Euro jumps as German CSU leader Seehofer says migration clash w/ Merkel resolved. @Schuldensuehner 1.1642 [1.1515 still intact]
World Currencies

Euro jumps as German CSU leader Seehofer says migration clash w/
Merkel resolved. Says the compromise will "prevent the illegal
immigration on the border between #Germany and #Austria."

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WTI Crude via @TCommodity 73.60

The interesting point is if after Trump's Tweet to King Salman the
Kingdom is unable to douse the market wit an extra 2m bpd or even 1m
The Emperor will be discovered to have no clothes.

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#Glencore's shares plunge as it announces it's been subpoenaed by the US Depat of Justice to produce documents relating to corruption and money laundering PaulWallace123

#Glencore's shares plunge as it announces it's been subpoenaed by the
US Depat of Justice to produce documents relating to corruption and
money laundering. They relate to the company's business in #Nigeria,
DR #Congo and Venezuela.

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The heroin coast: A political economy along the eastern African seaboard @ENACT_Africa

In recent years, the volume of heroin shipped from Afghanistan along a
network of maritime routes in East and southern Africa appears to have
increased considerably. Most of this heroin is destined for Western
markets, but there is a spin-off trade for local consumption. An
integrated regional criminal market has developed, both shaping and
shaped by political developments in the region. Africa is now
experiencing the sharpest increase in heroin use worldwide and a
spectrum of criminal networks and political elites in East and
southern Africa are substantially enmeshed in the trade. This report
focuses on the characteristics of the heroin trade in the region and
how it has become embedded in the societies along this route. It also
highlights the features of the criminal governance systems that
facilitate drug trafficking along this coastal route.

Heroin is being shipped from Afghanistan to the east coast of Africa
along a maritime route known as the ‘southern route’. This is in
reality a network of routes stretching along East and southern Africa,
with drug consignments eventually making their way to countries in
Asia, Africa, Europe and, to a limited extent, North America. The
southern route has gained popularity because the land-based Balkan
trafficking route to Western Europe is increasingly difficult for
traffickers to use owing to coflict and increased law enforcement
there.2 This has meant that illegal drug dhows are diverted by sea to
East Africa – and these movements are considerably harder to police.
The volume of trade along this route appears to be increasing.

Along this trafficking route, much of the heroin is first shipped to
Africa on motorised, wooden seagoing dhows built in the United Arab
Emirates. The vessels are loaded with between 100 kg and 1 000 kg
consignments of contraband off the Makran coast of southern Pakistan.
The dhows anchor off the coast of Africa in international waters, and
flotillas of small boats collect the heroin and ferry it to various
beaches, coves or islands, or o oad it into small commercial harbours.
The research reveals that dozens of such sites are used for landing
the consignments along the entire eastern coastline – from north of
Kismayo, Somalia, to Angoche, Mozambique. This route is used all year
round apart from during the three-month monsoon period.

• In Kenya, which one could characterise as a market where there is
‘multipolar competition’, drug traffickers have either campaigned
directly for political office or they are often linked to political
interests. Here, no single group dominates and there is significant
competition among a spectrum of players.
• Tanzania is currently going through a series of reforms under
President Magufuli that are substantially transforming
criminal-political relationships in the country, with signs that this
is having the effect of displacing criminal figures to other parts of
the region. Tanzania can be labelled as a ‘disrupted criminal market’.
• In Mozambique, drug tra ckers have consolidated their hold over the
market in a remarkably resilient and long-standing quid pro quo with
elements linked to the political elite. The authors argue therefore
that Mozambique can be regarded as a relatively consolidated criminal
market where ‘taxing’ the proceeds from heroin may have contributed to
funding political party campaigns and reinforced local patronage
networks. There is also evidence that a period of further evolution in
the market may now be under way.
• In South Africa heroin has not been directly linked to political
gures, although prominent  gures in the broader drug trade have. Here,
however, most notably in the Western Cape and in Gauteng, powerful,
and often violent, criminal interests are involved in controlling the
heroin trade on the street.

The 2017 World drug report noted that Africa is currently experiencing
the sharpest increase in heroin use globally, and this has been
attributed to Africa’s role in the southern route.4 According to
various sources across the region (see Table 2), In Kenya there are
almost 55 000 people who inject heroin (the consumption method that
carries the highest health risks associated with this drug), over 32
000 in Tanzania and over 75 000 in South Africa. But the numbers of
people smoking heroin, which, for many, will lead to injecting later,
are much higher. In most of these countries, the rates of HIV among
people who inject drugs (PWID) are several times higher than those
among the rest of the population, and there are astronomically high
rates of hepatitis C in this group.5 Despite a heartening trend that
is seeing drug users’ rights and their access to health services being
placed at the centre of drug treatment approaches in several
locations, there are nevertheless gaps in such interventions.

Cities with the biggest consumer markets – like Mombasa, Cape Town and
the Johannesburg–Pretoria metropolitan area – are also beset with
violence associated with the drug trade

For example, a gram of heroin costs about US$20 in Kenya, but in the
UK it costs about US$60 and in Denmark US$213.21

Unsurprisingly, Mombasa is home to several of Kenya’s most prominent
heroin traffickers and is a major node for heroin imports – and
probably also cocaine. Although figures on the quantities of drugs
entering Mombasa by container are not available, seizures at sea would
indicate that a large amount of heroin arrives at nearby destinations
by dhow, often to be repackaged and transported onwards from Mombasa,
and also at Nairobi.

an ‘ungazetted’ port in Lamu, a small town that is also a major locus
for the drugs trade. There are other ungazetted ports in Kili ,
Malindi, Mombasa Old Port, Vanga and Shimoni.33 Although customs
officers are officially assigned to these ports, in practice, as the
Kenya Maritime Authority concedes: ‘These ports are not subject to
international conventions and many unlicensed boats land there and are
never monitored.’34 And besides, there are private jetties along the
coast, especially in Malindi, that serve private residences, which
facilitate smuggling. Small airstrips in Kijipwa, Ukunda, Lunga Lunga,
Voi and Lamu are also used to smuggle drugs to the coast.35
Furthermore, the 1 420-km Kenyan coastline has no coast guard.

According to one government source in Kenya, who provided an estimate
of the heroin dhows, 40 tonnes transit the whole region annually,
while about 5 tonnes remain in the region.40 An international
law-enforcement source in Tanzania gave a similar estimate of the
total flow through East Africa.41 It is not clear if this volume
includes drugs tra cked through Mozambique, for which the authors
compiled an estimate (based on information about the frequency of dhow
drop-offs) of between 10 and 40 tonnes a year.

This phenomenon is fuelled by the relationship between money and
politics, and the huge expenses incurred by Kenya’s electoral
processes. Campaigners estimate that in Kenya’s recent election, the
incumbent, Kenyatta, spent US$50 million on his re-election campaign.
Media reports suggest it costs as much as US$6 million for a
successful governorship campaign alone.99 One of our key
interlocutors, a person who is active in the logistics of political
campaigning in Mombasa, claimed it costs at least US$2 million to
contest a gubernatorial position in his county.100 (The Kenyan
government spent at least US$500 million on the election itself,
making it one of the most expensive in the world.)1

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Burning Villages, Ethnic Tensions Menace Mozambique Gas Boom

Women’s cries just after 1 a.m. confirmed Barnabe Samuel Mussa’s worst
fears -- an attack was underway.

He and other men from his village of Mitumbate in Mozambique were
camped in a dense forest armed with bows, arrows and machetes,
awaiting the arrival of a little-known group of Islamist fighters
that’s terrorized residents in the gas-rich area 1,800 kilometers
(1,118 miles) northeast of the capital, Maputo. An explosive cocktail
of ethnic and religious tensions and the region’s deep poverty are
fueling the insurgency.

“They started to burn the houses screaming, ‘get out of here. We do
not want anyone to live in this village’,” Mussa, 65, said over the
sound of children nearby playing drums and singing under a mango tree.
“We heard the flames of houses burning. Shortly after that, we heard a
boom. That was a bomb exploding at the church.”

By the time they’d left, the militants of Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama, which
means “followers of the prophetic tradition” in Arabic had hacked to
death one man, set fire to 27 houses, and thrown a crude bomb into the
small church. They also replaced the red flag of Mozambique’s ruling
party with their own: an off-white fabric with a green crescent moon
and a star. Some local residents call the group al-Shabaab, the same
name used by militants in Somalia.

With a coastline famous for its turquoise tropical waters rolling
along white-sand beaches, and harboring some of the world’s biggest
deposits of graphite used to make lithium batteries, and the largest
ruby resources globally, Cabo Delgado is now gripped by fear.

Militants raid villages deep in the forest, burning houses, beheading
men and stealing food. Since May alone, more than 1,000 people have
been forced to flee their homes, according to New York-based Human
Rights Watch.

About 54 percent of Cabo Delgado’s 2.3 million people are Muslim, with
most of the rest Catholic, according to government statistics.
Nationally, over half are Christian, while 23 percent follow Islam,
estimates from the Pew Research Center show. About two-thirds of them
say they want sharia to be the official law of the land, according to
a 2013 survey by the Washington-based group.

While most of Mozambique’s Muslims are moderate and follow the more
mystical Sufi form of the religion, desperate poverty and the arrival
of oil and gas conglomerates in the region make for a “potential
powder keg,” said Eric Morier-Genoud, a lecturer in African history at
Queen’s University in Belfast.

“It’s young people from our midst who are being enticed -- they are
being offered money,” Lisboa said in an interview at his residence.
“The poor are very vulnerable.”

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Zambia has been using foreign reserves to service its debt, but they are now so low that the Bank of Zambia has not updated its public figures since February

#Zambia has been using foreign reserves to service its debt, but they
are now so low that the Bank of Zambia has not updated its public
figures since February, and we hear that they fell to well below the
last reported figure of $1.8bn.

read more

South Africa All Share Bloomberg -3.94% 2018

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.8579


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.8923


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -0.77% 2018


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.59% 2018


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N.S.E Today

China in free fall. The Shanghai Comp Index is at a 28 month low. The
Yuan slid past 6.7 per Dollar for first time in a year. June was the
worst month for the CNY since the mid 90s.
The Dollar stalled after a meaningful rally which has seen it rise
+2.9% this year against its G-10 Peers. Only the Yen has outpaced the
Dollar posting a +4.8% gain.
In the first half, the Turkish lira has dropped almost 19 percent
against the Japanese currency, the Indian rupee 8.3 percent and the
Korean won 5.6 percent.
Emerging Market Assets have been crushed and Emerging currencies are
down more than 10% since February against the USD.
Emerging Markets got off to a blistering start this year, but it went
downhill from there. Negative return in each of the last five months.
The Shilling which is +2.1% YTD has once more confounded the Bears.
Vietnam got whacked today. with equities crashing -4%, and the Dong
softening to a record-low.
Yesterday was the worst day for the Bloomberg Commodity Index since 2016.
Crude Oil of course has rallied close to 20% YTD and ironically
Trump's weekend Tweet regarding a conversation with King Salman
counterintuitively puts Oil through the roof if the Kingdom prove
unwilling or unable to douse the markets with supply.
''Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia I am asking that Saudi
Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make
up the difference...Prices to high! He has agreed! @realDonaldTrump''
Coffee prices fell to the lowest since 2016
Glencore's shares plunged as it announces it's been subpoenaed by the
US Department of Justice to produce documents relating to corruption
and money laundering. They relate to the company's business in
Nigeria, DR Congo and Venezuela
Zambia has been using foreign reserves to service its debt, but they
are now so low that the Bank of Zambia has not updated its public
figures since February, and we hear that they fell to well below the
last reported figure of $1.8bn. [Africa Confidential]
African markets have been caught in the cross-fire.
The market headed South again today,

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom was sold off -3.45% to close at 28.00 and traded 3.750m shares.

WPP-ScanGroup rallied +8.41% to close at 16.75 and traded 2.005m
shares. WPP-ScanGroup's parent and majority shareholder WPP PLC ousted
its long standing CEO Sir Martin Sorrell a few weeks ago.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB Group ticked -0.55% lower to close at 45.25 and traded 2.455m shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Bamburi Cement was the most actively traded share and firmed +2.27% to
close at 180.00 and traded 866,600 shares worth 155.988m. Bamburi
Cement reported a -66.503% slide FY Profit for the year which
registered 1.973b vs. 5.890b. Bamburi is adding 1.8m tons cement
capacity expansion in Kenya and Uganda.

Buyers for KenGen exceeded Sellers by 1,429% today at the Bourse and
whilst KenGen closed unchanged at 7.00 it was trading at 7.10 +1.43%
at the Finale and is self-evidently about to pop meaningfully higher.

slid -1.843% to close at a 2018 closing low of 213.00 and traded
535,100 shares. EABL has retreated -10.504% on a price basis in 2018
and is underperforming the Nairobi All Share by a wide margin.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2018

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