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Friday 17th of August 2018
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Morning Africa |
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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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@Aiww What's in a Name? Africa |
A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.
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Erdogan's family name means "brave falcon" in English @IndyVoices's Robert Fisk Law & Politics |
all because Pastor Andrew Brunson remains under house arrest in there
for allegedly supporting the coup plot allegedly organised by
Erdogan’s former colleague, the allegedly mesmeric imam Mohamed
Fethullah Gulen
I don’t believe a word of it. Trump made little fuss about Brunson’s
captivity for many months. It took him almost a year and a half to get
into a tantrum about the good Christian family man and missionary in
Izmir whose chief characteristics appear to be nothing but wholesome:
barbecues, picnics, swimming, movies and board games in the evenings,
to quote his sister Beth, “the typical American family though living
so far away”. American Evangelical Christians were outraged at the
arrest of this Godly man – Christianity was on trial, of course – and
their favourite president finally tweeted that “this innocent man of
faith should be released immediately”.
And so it came to pass that Trump’s wrath was visited upon by the
Muslim president who locked up a man who was only doing God’s work in
the comfortable coastal city of Izmir. Double US tariffs on steel and
aluminium helped to crash the Turkish lira, which has lost 45 per cent
of its value this year, although Erdogan might also be blamed for his
refusal to raise interest rates against inflation. But let’s be sane.
Is all this because of a Presbyterian pastor?
No. For here’s the real list of Erdogan’s crimes. He is buying the
Russian S-400 missile system for Turkey. He refuses to accept US
support for America’s Kurdish YPG allies. He allowed Islamist fighters
to pour over Turkey’s border into Syria along with a lot of weapons,
mortars and missiles – to which Washington had no objections at the
time since the US was trying to knock Erdogan’s former friend Bashar
al-Assad off his perch. Then, after shooting down a Russian aircraft
along the Syrian border in November 2015 – for which he was
immediately boycotted by Moscow – Erdogan cuddled up to Putin. It was
thus the Russians and the Iranians who first warned Erdogan of the
impending “Gulen coup” against him in July 2016. They had been
listening in to the Turkish military’s internal radio traffic – and
tipped off the Sultan of Istanbul.
And now Erdogan is helping Iran to dodge US sanctions which were
imposed after Trump flagrantly tore up the 2015 nuclear agreement, and
– in a decision demonstrating the cowardly response of the EU’s own
oil conglomerates to Trump’s insanity – has announced that he will
continue to import Iranian oil. Thus will Washington’s further threat
of increased oil sanctions against Iran be blunted. Sunni Saudi
Arabia, one of Trump’s closest allies – where religious freedom for
the likes of Pastor Brunson has never existed – is already furious
with Erdogan. Not long ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman denounced
Turkey as part of a “triangle of evil” – the other bits of the
“triangle” being Shiite Iran and militant Islamists.
So you can see how things are lining up in the Middle East right now.
Erdogan has made good friends out of Putin and Iran’s supreme leader
and, as an opponent of Saudi Arabia, is naturally on the best of terms
with Qatar, whose Emir – in a miraculous moment which even Pastor
Brunson might envy – has just promised an investment of $15bn to
Turkey. Saudi Arabia’s siege of Qatar is beginning to look as
miserable as its war against the Shiites of Yemen. Turkish troops are
stationed in Qatar to “protect” the little emirate against its larger
and threatening neighbour – and we all know who that is. And, since
Syrian and Qatari relations are steadily being reheated – albeit on
the minutest scale – I wonder who will benefit the most.
Set against this horizon, Erdogan doesn’t need to be a “brave falcon”.
Just a wily old bird.
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Trump says farmers are "starting to really do well." The data says otherwise Law & Politics |
“They are, I hear, despite everything they’re starting to really do
well,” Trump said in comments broadcast from a cabinet meeting at the
White House. “They’re selling the corn and they’re selling the soybean
and they’re selling everything, at levels that are soon going to be
pretty good levels.”
Benchmark soybean futures prices are down about 14 percent since China
first proposed slapping tariffs on U.S. supplies in April. China
followed through on the threat in July.
Agricultural prices in general remain weak. The Bloomberg Agriculture
Subindex, which comprises soybeans and seven other major farm
products, hasn’t really recovered since touching a record low last
month. Producer sentiment declined last month, according to the Purdue
University-CME Group Agricultural Economy Barometer. The U.S.
Agriculture Department is projecting farm net income of $59.5 billion
this year, the lowest since 2006.
China bought more than $12 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S.
last year, according to USDA statistics. The administration said last
month it plans to offer $12 billion in aid to farmers affected by the
trade conflict.
China “attacked our farmers by trying not to buy from our farmers,"
Trump said. "They know the farmers like Trump and I like them. I love
them.”
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Tonga PM fears asset seizures as Pacific debts to China mount @Reuters Law & Politics |
Pacific island nations are holding talks which could lead to a
coordinated request that China forgive mounting debts in the region
amid concerns Beijing may start seizing strategic assets, Tonga’s
Prime Minister ‘Akilisi Pōhiva said on Thursday.
China’s possession of a Sri Lankan port as Colombo struggled with a
spiralling debt crisis meant asset seizures could not be ruled out,
Pōhiva told Reuters in a phone interview from Tonga.
“If it happens in Sri Lanka, it can happen in the Pacific - so it is
entirely an option for China to consider,” said Pōhiva, who did not
identify any specific assets at risk of being seized.
“If we fail to meet the requirements and conditions set out in the
agreement ... we have to pay the cost for our failure to meet the
conditions.”
In April, media reports suggested China wanted to establish a military
base in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu after funding a wharf big
enough to handle warships. Both China and Vanuatu denied the reports.
Pōhiva, who came to power after the bulk of Tonga’s $115 million debt
to China was accumulated, said the region should negotiate as one.
“It is no longer an issue for individual countries because there are
small countries who borrowed from China and we have problems with that
and the option is to collectively work together to find a way out.”
A recent Reuters analysis of the financial books of South Pacific
island nations showed China’s lending programmes have gone from almost
zero to over $1.3 billion currently outstanding in a decade.
“This whole issue with Tonga has gone through the Pacific like a dose
of salts, and understandably, because the money they now need to repay
their loan means they have less money for health and education,”
Fierravanti-Wells told Reuters in a phone interview.
New Zealand’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Winston
Peters said in an emailed statement that “over-leveraging in any
situation is always a bad idea”.
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The State Bank of Pakistan now holds just over $10 billion in foreign exchange reserves, giving enough room to buy only two months' worth of imports. via @bopinion Law & Politics |
But the IMF route is tedious. A rescue package from the Fund would
mean the usual round of economic austerity and pro-market reforms, for
a prime minister who came to power promising an “Islamic welfare
state.” The U.S., the Fund’s largest shareholder and most important
decision-maker, has already said that any bailout money can’t be used
to pay off China, whose ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is turning
Pakistan into another Venezuela.
So Khan may be tempted to turn instead to Beijing or even Saudi
Arabia, despite having campaigned against corruption in Chinese-funded
projects. China is reported to have recently agreed to write a $2
billion loan to ease his transition into the office, and the
Saudi-backed Islamic Development Bank has arranged a $4.5 billion
loan, with the proceeds mainly to be used to pay for Pakistan’s oil
imports. Higher crude prices have also contributed to Pakistan’s
problems.
So while China’s money may look easy right now, it comes with
dangerous strings attached. An austerity program with the IMF would
serve Pakistan better.
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Gold 6 month INO 1174.45 Commodities |
oil slipped, heading for the longest run of weekly losses in three
years on the ongoing crisis in Turkey and after a surprise gain in
U.S. crude stockpiles.
Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were down 3 cents at $71.40 a barrel by
00229 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1
dropped 1 cent to $65.45 a barrel.
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Africa cannot count on a demographic dividend @FinancialTimes's @davidpilling Africa |
In 1957, when Ghana became the first African country to win its
independence, there were 6.05m Ghanaians and some 200m people living
in sub-Saharan Africa. Today Ghana’s population has more than
quadrupled to 29m and sub-Saharan Africa’s has nearly quintupled to
1bn. This is just the start. Africa is on the verge of an
unprecedented population explosion.
If you asked people to identify the most important trends shaping the
world, many would name climate change, the rise of China, the
potential of artificial intelligence or the surge of nationalism. Few
would mention the dramatic increase of the population in a continent
that to many is an afterthought.
That view will become harder to sustain. Populations in Europe and the
Americas have stopped growing. The population of Asia will peak at
around 5bn by 2050. For the next century, most of the increase in the
world’s population will happen in Africa.
The UN’s base case is that the number of Africans will double in 30
years to 2bn and at least double again, to 4bn, by the end of the
century. If all those new people can find jobs and opportunity, global
growth will gradually shift to Africa.
If, as seems equally plausible, they cannot, Africa could become a
focus of instability and desperation. Food shortages could worsen,
exacerbated by climate change. Clashes such as those between Nigeria’s
Fulani herdsman and sedentary farmers that have claimed thousands of
lives could intensify along with the struggle for land and resources.
The population of Nigeria alone, 45m at independence and 180m today,
is expected to more than double again by 2050, surpassing that of the
US.
In African Exodus, Asfa-Wossen Asserate, an Ethiopian who has spent
his adult life in Germany, says future waves of immigration to Europe
could dwarf existing numbers. “Above all, it is a general lack of
prospects that is driving Africans from their homes,” he writes.
The median age in sub-Saharan Africa is 19.5. That compares with 38 in
the US, 43 in the EU and 47 in Japan. Much population growth is baked
into the existing demographic pie. In 1960, roughly one in 10 of the
world’s population was African. By the end of the century that will be
more than one in three.
Some argue that this is Africa’s demographic dividend. Just as Asia
did before it, Africa will reap its rewards in terms of high growth
and rising living standards. But this is to misunderstand what a
demographic dividend is. If adding people were enough, then Africa
would already be rich.
The true meaning of a demographic dividend is a drop in the dependency
ratio, or a rise in the working-age population relative to young
people and retirees. By this measure, Africa does not have a dividend
at all. It has a deficit — one that is widening. In much of the world,
the working age population (15-64) makes up 60-70 per cent of the
total. In Africa, it makes up just 54 per cent.
The main reason is that fertility rates have not fallen as fast as in
other regions. In 1960, women in most developing countries had more
than six children each. This fell dramatically in subsequent decades.
By the mid-1990s, the rate was 3 in Latin America and just 2.2 in east
Asia. In Africa it remained stubbornly high, falling slightly to 5.9
by the mid-1990s and to 4.85 today.
The reasons are not obvious. One may be lack of access to
contraception, used regularly by less than one in five African women.
The UN Development Programme says that, with an average age of 62,
African presidents are out of touch with the policy needs of much
younger populations. Surveys show that African women want fewer
children than they are actually having, but their preferences are
still for relatively large families, according to John Bongaarts of
the Population Council, a non-profit organisation specialising in
reproductive health.
This is unlikely to be “cultural”. Besides, cultures change with
circumstance. But it does suggest that attachments to large families —
born partly out of fear for an impoverished old age — are deep-seated.
Urging population control is controversial. In India, in the 1970s,
there were horrific enforced sterilisation programmes born of a
conviction that the poor were having too many children. In Africa,
some argue that the continent is still sparsely populated by European
or Asian standards. Scaremongering about an African population
explosion, say others, smacks of racist fears.
Those arguments are understandable. But they are misguided. The growth
of Asia suggests strongly that the best way of improving livelihoods
is through a reduction in the fertility rate — and with it the
dependency ratio. With fewer children to worry about, parents can
devote more time and resources to feeding, educating and providing
opportunities for those they have.
African leaders would do well not to make blasé assumptions about the
supposed economic virtues of their fast-rising populations. They need
policies both in the countryside and in the swelling cities to help
turn their new muscle power into productive use and to ensure that
potential workers do not become disaffected, angry youth.
As important, they should nudge their fertility rates down, not by
coercion but by improving health and education systems and by
empowering women. After all, what could be the harm in that anyway?
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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa Africa |
What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.
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Maldives: A crisis in paradise @BrookingsInst Africa |
A crisis is brewing in an Indian Ocean paradise. Elections next month
in the Maldives will probably cement the power of the nation’s
dictator and consolidate the control of China and Saudi Arabia over
this strategic island chain. India is already deeply concerned about
the implications of this power struggle.
The Maldives are the central part of a chain of islands that begins on
the west coast of India with the Lakshadweep Islands and ends deep in
the Indian Ocean at the Chagos Archipelago, including the major
American military base at Diego Garcia. The Republic of the Maldives
is comprised of almost 1,200 islands spread out over 35,000 square
miles. It’s the lowest country in the world, with an average height of
less than five feet above sea level. Some islands have become home to
high-end expensive hotels, and over one hundred islands are resorts.
Of its roughly 418,000 people, a majority are Muslims.
The capital of Malé is among the most densely populated cities in the
world, officially with about 140,000 people in about two square miles.
The population is probably much higher than the official figure.
Approached from the sea, Malé appears to be a city floating on the
ocean. The national airport is on an adjacent island. The country was
a British colony until 1965, and before the British takeover in the
1880s, it was a Sultanate with strong ties to Arabia and India.
Maumoon Abdul Gayoom ruled the islands for 30 years of the country’s
independence, from 1978 to 2008. He grew up in Egypt and studied at Al
Azhar University, then a stronghold of Islamic radical ideas. He
survived three coup attempts, with Indian army paratroopers rescuing
him the final time in 1988. His reign was marked by corruption and
intimidation, and no challenger was allowed in rigged elections. He
lost the election in 2008 to a political reformer only after
considerable international pressure.
His successor, Mohammad Nasheed, tried to open the political process
and rally world attention to global warming. He held a cabinet meeting
underwater to dramatize the threat posed by the rising sea level to
the Maldives. But he faced constant opposition and conspiracies from
Gayoom loyalists. He was deposed in 2012, convicted on trumped-up
charges the next year and is now in exile in London.
Abdallah Yameen took power in 2013 and brought in China, which had not
even had an embassy before 2012. Gayoom’s half-brother, Yameen has
greatly expanded the airport with Chinese aid money and is
constructing a bridge to connect it to Malé, also with China’s aid
money. More tourists are arriving than ever, many from China. The
country is now heavily in debt to China, with which Yameen also signed
a controversial free trade agreement. Many of Yameen’s opponents fear
the country is in a Chinese-designed debt trap that Beijing will use
to extract political and military concessions from Malé. In the worst
case, Yameen might give the Chinese a military base.
Saudi Arabia has also invested heavily in the Maldives. The young
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a frequent visitor. The Saudis
have bought entire islands for private use. This too has been widely
criticized by the opposition. The Saudis are building a new national
mosque, which will be the nation’s largest, in Malé—it is named after
King Salman. The Saudis and Chinese are cooperating on several project
A senior Indian diplomat told me last week that New Delhi fears that
the Maldives will turn into a hostile port inclined toward China
athwart the crucial shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean. Combined with
China’s powerful position in Pakistan and gains in Sri Lanka, India
feels surrounded. The announcement last weekend that the Maldives
wants the small Indian helicopter rescue mission in the islands to go
home will only add to the jitters in Delhi.
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06-AUG-2018 :: The Indian Ocean Economy and a Port Race. @TheStarKenya Africa |
As we scan the Blue Economy it is worth appreciating that Maritime
shipping is the lifeblood of Africa, with over 90% of the continent’s
imports and exports transported by sea. Today from Massawa, Eritrea
[admittedly on the Red Sea] to Djibouti, from Berbera to Mogadishu,
from Lamu to Mombasa to Tanga to Bagamoyo to Dar Es Salaam, through
Beira and Maputo all the way to Durban and all points in between we
are witnessing a Port race of sorts as everyone seeks to get a piece
of the Indian Ocean Port action. China [BRI initiative], the Gulf
Countries [who now appear to see the Horn of Africa as their hinter-
land], Japan and India [to a lesser degree] are all jostling for
optimal ’geo-economic’’ positioning. Overlay the Geopolitics and its
worth noting that the Geopolitics has become much more fluid. Fluidity
has been engendered by the spectacular arrival of Prime Minister Abiy
in Ethiopia [which is land-locked, of course but a key Future Taker of
Port facilities] who has made peace with President Afawerki’s Eritrea
and is surely set to undercut Djibouti and even LA- PPSET, both
Projects which seem to me to have been predicated to some degree on a
permanent Freeze between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Investments in Ports
have a long lead time and I am not certain that those same investments
are able to re-calibrate at the speed with which the Geopolitics is
moving. The Big Risk is that some these Port investments will be
‘’Hambanota’’-ed.
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Abiymania Ethiopians are going wild for Abiy Ahmed Economist Africa |
Some fear the new prime minister is the subject of a personality cult
SEMAHEGN GESHAYE has peddled books near the national theatre in Addis
Ababa for eight years. But business has rarely been this brisk.
“Anything that’s about Abiy Ahmed is popular,” he says. A flurry of
titles about Ethiopia’s new prime minister has hit the shelves since
he took office in April. One best-seller, called “Moses”, compares Mr
Abiy to the prophet. Another professes to be an insider account of his
meteoric rise. The two most popular were written under a pseudonym by
the prime minister himself. The last copies of “The Stirrup and the
Throne”, his meditation on leadership, sold out in the capital weeks
ago. “We badly need that book,” grumbles a bookshop owner. “People are
always bothering us for it.”
More than 90% of those surveyed by WAAS International, a local
research firm, have a favourable view of Mr Abiy, who has released
thousands of political prisoners and apologised for police brutality.
But a visitor to the capital could be forgiven for thinking the number
is even higher. Songs with titles like “He Awakens Us” ring out on the
airwaves. Street boys hawk stickers, posters and T-shirts featuring Mr
Abiy. Addis Gebremichael, who runs a corner shop near the central
square, says he sold 1,500 such shirts in a single day when a big
rally was staged for Mr Abiy in June.
Abiymania is also infecting Eritrea, with which Mr Abiy has just made
peace. Eritrean women promise to name their first-born sons after him.
A clothes shop in Asmara, the capital, has dedicated a fashion line to
him. Some Christians believe he was sent by God. His name alludes to
the Easter fasting season, they note, and he rose to power during
Lent.
Ethiopia’s state media behave slavishly towards the prime minister,
obsessively covering his appearances and seldom airing critical views.
Mr Abiy himself never gives interviews and has yet to hold a press
conference. Non-state outlets complain that they are no longer invited
to official press briefings.
But there are signs that Mr Abiy’s honeymoon is ending. At the rally
in June an attempt was made on his life. This month federal troops
clashed with local security forces in Ethiopia’s Somali region,
triggering tit-for-tat killings and displacing thousands. Graffiti
reading “Fuck Abiy” were later seen in the regional capital. Ethnic
violence has recently escalated in his own region of Oromia. The
government’s response has been feeble. Mr Abiy may be human after all.
Conclusions
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MTN and fellow investors in Jumia looking at an IPO of the fast-growing African online retailer - super break by @LoniPrinsloo1 for @BBGAfrica Africa |
MTN Group Ltd. is exploring a sale of shares in African online
retailer Jumia and values the company at as much as $1 billion,
according to people familiar with the matter.
Africa’s largest wireless carrier is considering an initial public
offering of the Amazon.com Inc.-style business on the Nasdaq or New
York Stock Exchange, said the people, who asked not to be named as the
information isn’t public. Johannesburg-based MTN is the biggest
shareholder in Jumia with a 40 percent stake, and smaller investors
including German startup backer Rocket Internet SE are also open to
selling stock, they said.
Another option under consideration is a private sale of shares to new
investors, according to the people. Jumia currently has an estimated
enterprise value of about $1 billion, they said, and has grown sales
by between 70 percent and 90 percent annually since its inception in
2012.
MTN “currently has no plans to dispose of its investment in Jumia in
the short term,” a spokeswoman said in emailed comments Thursday.
Jumia and Rocket declined to comment.
Jumia was set up by French entrepreneurs Sacha Poignonnec and Jeremy
Hodara in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, to take advantage of
rising internet use in Africa and a lack of availability of
consumer-goods items such as designer watches and sunglasses. It has
grown to have e-commerce operations in 14 African countries, and has
added platforms for online hotel bookings and food delivery.
A successful listing could help MTN reduce debt, which increased to
69.8 billion rand ($4.8 billion) as of the end of June, compared with
57.1 billion rand six months earlier. The rising liabilities
contributed to a share-price slump when the carrier reported half-year
earnings last week. The stock has fallen 27 percent this year, close
to eight-year lows, valuing the company at 190 billion rand.
MTN operates in 21 countries across Africa and the Middle East.
Nigeria is its biggest market with about 55 million customers.
Only about a third of Africa’s 1.2 billion people have access to the
internet, providing plenty of potential growth for Jumia as a listed
company, said one of the people.
Other Jumia shareholders include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Millicom
International Cellular SA and Orange SA.
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Tiger Brands Ltd. tumbled after Africa's largest listed packaged-food maker said full-year profit fell as much as 37 percent @TigerBrands Africa |
The shares dropped as much as 9.8 percent, the most since March 5, the
day after the South African government identified a Tiger Brands
factory as the source of the outbreak that has killed more than 200
people. The company recalled products and suspended factories in
response.
Full-year earnings were affected by a challenging consumer
environment, with pressure on volumes and pricing, “significant” cost
increases and the impact of the recall and plant closures, Tiger
Brands said in a statement Thursday. Expenses were driven up by an
unfavorable rand movement and higher fuel prices, among other factors,
it said.
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@FlameTreeGroup H1 2018 EPS -46.34% here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value:
Closing Price: 3.90
Total Shares Issued: 161866804.00
Market Capitalization: 631,280,536
EPS: 0.25
PE: 15.600
H1 2018 Results through June 30th 2018 versus 6 months through June 30th 2017
H1 2018 Revenue 1.265671964b versus 1.260489157b
H1 Gross Profit 403.838568m versus 432.045922m -6.5%
H1 Selling and Distribution costs [182.639627m] versus [176.051633m]
H1 Administrative Expenses [116.695930m] versus [114.672411m]
H1 Operating Profit after gain ion disposal of PPE 89.463993m versus 122.595569m
H1 Finance Costs [34.613987m] versus [43.733080m]
H1 Profit before Tax 54.850006m versus 78.862490m
H1 Profit After Tax 39.917062m versus 66.493600m -40.00%
H1 EPS 0.22 versus 0.41 -46.34%
Company Commentary
Gross Profit margins dropped slightly to 31.9% versus 34.3%
Finance cost savings -20.9%
Mr. Heril Bangera '' we have seen an improvement in the business
environment compared to 2017, half year figures albeit low, is still
higher than 2017 performance. We continue to invest in new ranges of
products to strengthen the top line, ultimately with a positive
bearing on shareholders' earnings. Despite experiencing tight cash
environment we are continuously taking requisite measures to improve
the same.''
Conclusions
Its an interesting mix of businesses. Earnings probably trough here.
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