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Wednesday 22nd of August 2018 |
Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
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How Bitcoin's crash compares to history's biggest bubbles @Business Africa |
Bitcoin’s dramatic rise and fall has left many investors wondering whether the cryptocurrency is destined to enter the history books as one of the world’s biggest bubbles. After an almost 60-fold increase over the past three years to nearly $20,000 in December, Bitcoin has tumbled by about 70 percent from its peak on concern that regulatory and security hurdles will prevent widespread adoption. By comparison, the Nasdaq Composite Index recorded a 78 percent peak-to-trough decline after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
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27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" @TheStarKenya Africa |
Let me leave you with Hunter S.Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”
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#BragAboutYourGeneration @Frederiko Africa |
We dated without @Tinder. We took rides without @Uber. We got jobs without @LinkedIn. We found places without @Waze. We did playlists without @Spotify. We took photos without @Instagram. We found answers without @Google. We made friends without @Facebook. #BragAboutYourGeneration
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Could trade war lead to the real thing? Former Australian PM Kevin Rudd says historically, we've failed to see tipping points until it's too late Law & Politics |
News that China and the U.S. will resume trade talks this week swiftly lifted markets. This follows the first meetings at the annual summer retreat of the Chinese Communist Party leadership at the beachside resort of Beidaihe. As might be expected, the main topic this summer has been the U.S.-China trade war, where it might lead and what could conceivably be done to avert it without an unacceptable loss of political face.
While we won’t have any real indication as to the tenor of the Chinese discussions or their conclusions for awhile yet, it’s worth thinking through where this trade war could take us all in the absence of effective diplomatic intervention. History tells us trade wars are easy to start and hard to stop, just like real ones. There’s a reason for that. The material stakes become greater as hostilities continue. And the domestic political cost of backing down gets higher and higher.
Let’s start with trade. The traded sector represents some 38 percent of Chinese GDP and 27 percent of U.S. GDP. If the current, small-scale dispute escalates to cover the entire $650 billion in bilateral trade, the world will have an objective economic problem on its hands, not just one of general market sentiment. Once growth numbers start declining, however marginally, it won’t take all that much for sentiment, and then the real economy, to head south. Falling sentiment and economic numbers will contribute to a mutually reinforcing spiral.
The other factor that can’t be ignored is plain old political psychology. If someone is forced into a corner, they can either back down or double down. The assumption in Washington seems to be that Xi will do the former. This may be right. But U.S. leaders need to remember that China, even as a one-party state, has its own domestic politics to confront — both internal regime politics as well as the wider court of Chinese public opinion which, despite internet censorship, is remarkably well-informed.
Historically, we’ve routinely failed to discern when the tipping points come between public disagreement, failed diplomacy, political crisis, failed crisis management, limited conflict and then more general war. In this case, we aren’t even yet at phase two in the sequence.
So those of us, like myself, of a modestly religious frame of mind should light a candle for the upcoming round of negotiations. A great deal rides on them, and not just for the U.S. and China.
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The only advance delivered by the reforms to date is that a few highly privileged women are now able to drive cars @FT Law & Politics |
The spat with Canada suggests that internal security and repression of opposition is more important than human rights or improving the country’s image internationally. (The number of executions in the kingdom this year is 73.)
When it comes to Tesla , the explanation may lie in the US rather than Saudi Arabia. The prospective deal has been announced by Mr Musk but not endorsed by any Saudi official. The key question must be: who stood to gain from the idea that the Saudis were about to invest in Tesla?
Saudi is a complex society, with a leadership much more sophisticated and realistic than many in the west imagine. The last 3 years have been an aberration, a personality cult alien to the culture of a conservative society intent on its own preservation.
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Venezuelans Grapple With Maduro's Baffling New Economic Plan Emerging Markets |
Caracas returned to work after a holiday weekend that saw President Nicolas Maduro announce the devaluation and a minimum wage hike of more than 3,000 percent, decisions that were a tacit acceptance of the ubiquitous black-market exchange rate. They accompanied the roll-out of new banknotes that dropped five zeroes -- the second time such a measure was implemented in the past decade -- to simplify transactions. Many Venezuelans waited outside banks to get their hands on the new sovereign bolivares after months of living almost cashless.
Jimmy Lugo, 39, a heavy-machine operator, said as he waited to use an ATM downtown that he was paying much as 500 percent markups for legal tender, on which he depends for bus fare. While he doubted the latest economic package would put more food on his table, he hoped it would at least bring temporary relief as President Maduro is unlikely to leave power on his own.
“This is the only ship there is. Either it floats, or we’re all going down," Lugo said after collecting his cash.
Yet many fear the reforms will sink a foundering nation still deeper. Inflation is running over 100,000 percent, food and medicine are scarce and citizens are are fleeing by the thousands to neighboring countries. Some have been met with violence.
The socialist regime is employing many familiar tactics to in its latest attempt to rein in economic chaos. The late president Hugo Chavez chopped three zeros off the currency a decade ago. The minimum wage, which has been frequently revised, will increase more than 3,000 percent. And authorities said they were poised to publish new price caps on 25 essentials later on Tuesday.
The Maduro administration also announced that currency auctions, used to determine the official exchange rate, would resume Wednesday with greater frequency and access. But many remain skeptical that rejiggering the system, established in 2003, would ease a dollar drought that stymied domestic production and starved the country of imports.
The debut of the sovereign bolivar did little to slow the spiraling prices of goods or dollars, an implicit recognition that the thriving black market represents the country’s true economy. On Tuesday, DolarToday, a website that tracks black-market exchange rates, said the street value of greenback fell almost 10 percent to 65 bolivars on Tuesday from the 60 bolivar-rate Maduro declared last week.
Maduro is also wading into uncharted territory by linking the bolivar’s value to a cryptocurrency -- believed to be the first time a government has tried such a thing. The Petro is backed by crude oil, and the government sets its value at $60, or 3,600 sovereign bolivars. The Petro will fluctuate and be used to set prices for goods. Still, the cryptocurrency doesn’t trade on any functioning market, Francisco Rodriguez, chief economist of Torino Capital, wrote in a note to clients Monday.
“They’re going to pay us in cryptocurrency now -- Petros? It’s crazy. I have no idea how it will work. We’re barely using bolivars at this point,” said Jose Bastida, a 58-year-old maintenance worker waiting outside a bank in central Caracas.
Maduro’s plan was “marked by inconsistencies and was short on specifics, suggesting that any attempt to stabilize the economy would start out facing huge credibility problems,” Rodriguez from Torino Capital wrote.
The announcement of the measures on a Friday night was a historical rhyme for many Venezuelans. In 1983, President Luis Herrera Campins devalued the bolivar for the first time in 22 years after oil prices crashed. Citizens called the date “Black Friday.” The bolivar has been devalued nearly a dozen times since Chavez rose to power nearly two decades ago, often sparking a flurry of last minute shopping before business owners slap new price tags on their products.
Marelis Martinez, a 57-year-old administrative assistant, said prices of many essentials like cheese and eggs had already gone up by as much as a third over the weekend.
“This is all a joke; I feel like I’m being laughed at,” Martinez said. “The president can say the minimum wage is worth whatever he wants, but it still won’t be enough to cover a chicken.”
Conclusions
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Africa |
Sambi, who had previously been questioned and placed under house arrest, will also be officially detained to prevent him from fleeing the country or undermining investigations by communicating with others accused of involvement in the scheme.
A lawyer for Sambi said he was being held in “prison-like” conditions. The ex-president, who was in power from 2006-2011, has previously denied all allegations against him.
Comoros launched a programme with the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in 2008 to sell citizenship to stateless people in those countries in return for cash to help develop the poor Indian Ocean archipelago.
However, an investigation by the Comoros parliament released earlier this year found that thousands of passports were sold outside official channels via “mafia” networks and at least $100 million of revenues went missing.
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'IMF Put' Lures Investors to Angola's Eurobonds as Yields Fall Africa |
Angola’s Eurobonds surged after the OPEC member said it would ask the International Monetary Fund for financial support.
Yields on the southern African nation’s $1.5 billion of bonds maturing in November 2025 fell 31 basis points, the most in almost two years, to 7.47 percent by 9:15 a.m. in London. The Ministry of Finance announced late Monday that it had asked the IMF to add a “financing component” to its support program, which initially was only going to include technical assistance.
While the government said it needed help because growth was slower than expected and it was struggling to fund its budget, investors had hoped it would turn to the Washington-based lender to speed up economic reforms. The expectation of an IMF program has helped Angola weather the sell-off in emerging markets over the past few months better than its peers. Its Eurobonds have made losses of 1.2 percent this year, which is less than the emerging-market average of 4.9 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The third-biggest economy in sub-Saharan Africa was battered by the 2014 crash in the price of oil, which accounts for almost all the government’s export earnings. President Joao Lourenco, who came to power in September, has tried to revive growth by tackling corruption at state firms and improving the business environment.
The central bank has also devalued its currency, the kwanza, almost 40 percent against the dollar this year in a bid to end crippling shortages of foreign exchange.
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@HEBobiwine Uganda's 'ghetto president', upstages the real head of state @KagutaMuseveni @mailandguardian Africa |
Robert Kyagulanyi cannot remember the day that Yoweri Museveni was first inaugurated as president of Uganda. It was 33 years ago, and he was just three.
Since then, Museveni has been inaugurated a further four times, most recently in 2016. Meanwhile Kyagulani, better known by his stage name Bobi Wine, has grown up to become perhaps the most serious threat to the president’s efforts to further extend his residence in State House.
Even two years ago, this would have been impossible to predict. Sure, Wine had forged a spectacularly successful career as a reggae musician and entertainer, and crowned himself ‘the Ghetto President’ — a reference to his childhood in one of Kampala’s poorest slums. But he was more famous for his slick lyrics and his high-profile ‘beefs’ with rival musicians than for his politics.
Look a little closer at those lyrics, however, and the signs of the political whirlwind he was about to unleash were there. In 2016, when most of his peers had been co-opted into singing a campaign song in support of Museveni, Wine released a track called ‘Dembe’ that took aim directly at the president.
Lwaki temulabira ku Mandela (Why don’t you borrow a leaf from Mandela)
Yafuga kimu n’ata bendera (He ruled a short period and surrendered power)
Abakulembeze okulwa mu ntebe (Leaders who overstay in power)
Ky’ekireetera Uganda okufuuka eddebe (Is the reason why Uganda is rumbling)
Wine’s victory came as a shock to Uganda’s political establishment, but initially just an isolated one. Kampala has long been an opposition stronghold, after all, and his popularity was thought to be confined to the country’s Luganda-speaking regions, which would limit his national appeal.
They thought wrong. Since his own election, candidates supported by Bobi Wine — all of them relative outsiders — have gone on to win three parliamentary seats: in Jinji, Bugiri and most recently Arua. “He has been to these by-elections taking a lead role and on the way launching his People Power movement. We see the People Power movement is proving to be a serious force. It now appears that the young generation, which is where his big appeal is, they are picking up his messages so fast,” said Kittata.
If Bobi Wine really has captured the imagination of Uganda’s youth, then he has demographics on his side: more than 75% of the population is under the age of 30.
Lukwago, the mayor of Kampala, said that the forces that Bobi Wine has unleashed could do more than threaten the status quo — they could overturn it entirely. “The signs are ominous…It can only get worse. The country may go up in flames. You know the chequered history of this country, we have witnessed enough bloodshed. We have never had an orderly succession to power.”
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When #BobiWine is released, the young and outspoken MP will likely be welcomed by even bigger crowds than he left behind @africaarguments Africa |
When Robert Kyagulanyi – better known as Bobi Wine – was elected to Uganda’s parliament last July, the opposition’s excitement around the iconic musician’s victory was palpable. But it was also tempered with scepticism.
On the one hand, Bobi Wine was young and charismatic – a rarity in Ugandan politics. He had won the urban Kampala constituency by-election by a landslide. He was an articulate and charismatic opponent of the government, a defender of the poor, a man known popularly as the “Ghetto President”. His arrival in parliament would surely be a breath of fresh air.
On the other hand, however, some were wary. They noted that Bobi Wine was untested and inexperienced. He was not the first musician to join Parliament, and his lack of a party affiliation could leave him isolated. His ascension was perhaps worth celebrating, but many did not expect much from the young man beyond his symbolic electoral victory.
Yet just one year later, even those with the highest hopes may be surprised at the extent to which the new MP has shaken up Ugandan politics. Far from being an ineffectual sideshow, the 36-year-old has become the face of the opposition. He led efforts last year against the ruling party’s plan to amend the constitution. He recently spearheaded protests against a new social media tax. And the candidates he has supported in elections have triumphed, trouncing nominees backed by both the ruling NRM and the main opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).
As he has toured the country, the crowds at his rallies have continued to swell. There is already talk in opposition circles of him challenging President Museveni in 2021.
Bobi Wine was vocal and articulate, spreading his slogan of “people power” and urging the youth to forget their partisan differences and unite around a common goal of removing Museveni. But the musician did not just speak. He also managed to mobilise the youth through calls his to action and by giving them something to (literally) sing about. While marching alongside his fellow citizens in street protests, he has also continued to use his music to energise supporters. He has sung hopeful songs of political freedom followed by romantic tunes of love.
It all started as both Bobi Wine and Museveni campaigned in the northern town of Arua ahead of a by-election. Protesters reportedly threw stones at the president’s convoy, leading to clashes with security forces. Later that day, Bobi Wine tweeted a photo of his driver, slumped dead and bleeding in his car, claiming that he had been the real target.
Though things remain uncertain, the Ugandan state cannot hold Bobi Wine forever. If he is convicted on charges widely accepted to be trumped up, wells of anger and frustration that have built up over decades could spill onto the streets. But even if he is released with charges dropped, he will leave the prison gates to even bigger crowds than he left behind.
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@Julius_S_Malema the enfant terrible of South African politics, feels he's got President @CyrilRamaphosa just where he wants him Africa |
Julius Malema, the enfant terrible of South African politics, feels he’s got President Cyril Ramaphosa just where he wants him.
Since his expulsion from the ruling African National Congress five years ago, Malema, 37, and the Economic Freedom Fighters have targeted setting the national agenda before next year’s elections. The party has been key in pushing the ANC into more forceful support for expropriation of land without compensation and free university education. Now it’s demanding that the ANC fulfill a pledge it made eight months ago to nationalize the central bank.
Ramaphosa last month announced plans to amend the constitution to allow the state to take land without paying for it to address skewed ownership patterns that date back to apartheid and colonial rule. The prospect of property rights being eroded has spooked investors, who the president is trying to persuade to pour $100 billion into the country to spur growth.
“The EFF is in charge -- the ANC is following us,” Malema, whose 25 lawmakers dressed in red miner and maid outfits regularly spark uproars in parliament, said in an interview. “Through their land announcement, they had to look for something that changed the narrative. That’s why they came out as desperately like they did.”
ANC Chairman Gwede Mantashe has suggested that land ownership should be limited to 12,000 hectares (29,652 acres) per farm owner and white farmers who hold more than that should cede the rest to the state for redistribution.
That approach, which is supported by a populist faction in the ANC, doesn’t tie with Ramaphosa’s reassurances that a policy change won’t damage production, as happened in neighboring Zimbabwe, where land grabs that started in 2000 triggered an economic collapse.
The ANC’s U-turn on property rights comes after its support fell to a record low of 54.5 percent in a 2016 municipal vote when it lost control of three of the biggest cities, including the economic hub of Johannesburg, to opposition coalitions. The EFF won 8.2 percent support and the main opposition Democratic Alliance 27 percent.
Since then, on the policy front, it’s become a case of the tail wagging the dog, according to Tinyiko Maluleke, a political analyst based at the University of Pretoria.
“So small is the EFF, it’s the tail in this case, it’s able to wag the big dog,” he said by phone. “The EFF always takes the opportunity when there are issues like this to call the ANC’s bluff, to say ‘if you have all these radical decisions to take at your conferences, we are going to help you implement them.’”
The ANC denies following the EFF’s lead on land, saying it came up with the idea of amending the constitution to ensure that the government could effectively manage redistribution while taking account of both investors and those who hunger to farm. During a parliamentary debate in May, Malema called Ramaphosa “wishy-washy” on the issue and said the EFF was encouraging people to invade unoccupied land.
“If you occupy illegally the land without changing the constitution, you are shooting yourself in the head,” Jessie Duarte, the ruling party’s deputy secretary-general, said in an interview. “We are not responding to Malema. We discussed this, and we thought we need to do things properly.”
The EFF has been able to anticipate plans that the ANC is considering and then portray the decision as if it’s a result of its pressure, said Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer at the department of political and conflict studies at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University in Port Elizabeth.
“The EFF is not the governing party, they don’t have some of the sensitivities and political management issues the ANC needs to take into consideration,” he said.
The fractious nature of the debate suggests South Africa has dispensed with the politics of negotiation that prevailed during the era of Nelson Mandela and led to the end of white-minority rule, according to Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst.
“This creates a very tense policy implementation environment, where political parties are exchanging ultimatums on policy, and shifting away from a consensus approach toward an either ‘my way or the highway’ approach to politics,” he said.
South Africa’s state-owned Land Bank said on Monday a plan to allow the state to seize land without compensation could trigger defaults that could cost the government ($2.8 billion) http://bit.ly/2wlnUwi
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.97% 2018 Africa |
Shoprite Holdings Ltd.’s lower-income South African customers are struggling and it’s weighing on the profitability of Africa’s biggest supermarket chain.
Earnings excluding one-time items fell by 3.8 percent to 9.69 rand per share in the year through June, missing the 10.82 rand per share analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The Cape Town-based company also cut the full-year dividend to 4.84 rand a share, it said in a statement Tuesday.
“Consumers are under a tremendous amount of pressure and conditions for Shoprite’s core customers at the lower end are particularly tough,” Alec Abraham, an analyst at Sasfin Securities Ltd., said by phone before the results were published.
Outside South Africa, Shoprite sales slumped 7 percent in its 14 other countries, hurt by slow economic recoveries, unfavorable currency moves and foreign-exchange shortages. Angola particularly weighed, following two years of breakneck revenue growth. However, the company is set to expand into Kenya and remains committed to the African continent, the retailer said.
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Unshackled From Barclays, Absa Investment Bank Chases Growth Africa |
Absa Group Ltd.’s corporate and investment banking unit is targeting new African markets in a bid to boost earnings and deliver on Chief Executive Officer Maria Ramos’ mission to reboot the lender.
“This was one of the businesses that was impacted by the separation given it was so closely aligned to Barclays when we first built it out,” Harvey said. “It’s really about building a pan-African corporate and investment bank. The separation now allows us to determine our own path.”
Harvey, who looks after the investment bank, and Temi Ofong, who oversees the corporate-banking division, are focusing on serving the lender’s offshore client base by opening an office in London next month and another in New York in 2019. Absa has a presence in 11 African countries that together represent a third of the continent’s gross domestic product.
The division, which accounted for 15 percent of Absa’s first-half income, will also expand its footprint across the rest of Africa and lend in sectors such as infrastructure projects, trade and commodity finance, Harvey said, areas that weren’t a big focus for Barclays.
“For Africa, we know it’s important to be in that space and we know we can grow in that space,” he said. The group will also focus on expanding its commercial property finance and financial markets businesses, Harvey said.
To achieve this growth it is seeking opportunities for partnerships and acquisitions in its existing territories, like Nigeria, and markets where it doesn’t have a direct presence such as Angola, Egypt and Ivory Coast, the co-CEO said.
“Both options will be available to us,” Harvey said, adding that potential partners have been knocking on Absa’s door since the Barclays divorce was announced.
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N.S.E Today |
Michael Cohen 'testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime,' lawyer Lanny Davis said. The market is still trying to calculate what this in fact will mean. President Trump tempered what has been at times a violent Dollar upside move by criticising the FED and China and Europe for currency manipulation. I think Trump is playing cute and is in fact enjoying wielding his Big Stick as a Weapon of Mass Destruction. The Euro has crossed 1.1600, Gold is within 2 dollars of $1,200.00 Oil has rebounded nearly 2% as Investors turn bright eyed and bushy tailed. Venezuela's Maduro [who was recently attacked by remote-controlled drone] is wading into uncharted territory by linking the bolivar’s value to a cryptocurrency -- believed to be the first time a government has tried such a thing. “This is all a joke; I feel like I’m being laughed at,” Martinez said. “The president can say the minimum wage is worth whatever he wants, but it still won’t be enough to cover a chicken.” [Bloomberg[ Of course, next door in Uganda, the World is watch President Museveni's next steps in regard to Bobi Wine very closely indeed. We could see a big wobble in the currency. ''Though things remain uncertain, the Ugandan state cannot hold Bobi Wine forever. If he is convicted on charges widely accepted to be trumped up, wells of anger and frustration that have built up over decades could spill onto the streets. But even if he is released with charges dropped, he will leave the prison gates to even bigger crowds than he left behind'' [@africaarguments] Hugh Masakela said‘’I want to be there when the People start to turn it around....’’ "The Kenya Ports Authority, the port operator, has to meet the railway’s freight target or pay the railway for the unused capacity. In effect, the port is working for the railway." [David Ndii] on the day it was announced that ''Kenya has secured a Sh380bn loan facility for Naivasha-Kisumu standard gauge railway project'' The Nairobi All Share Index rowed -0.35 points lower to close at 173.96. The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed +8.25 points to close at 3344.94. Equity Turnover registered 467.938m. |
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom closed unchanged at 29.00 and traded 6.42m shares worth 186.932m on the day that Fortune Magazine placed Safaricom and its M-Pesa on @FortuneMagazine’s ‘Change the World’ listing. I fully expect an M-Pesa cross-border thrust and into Ethiopia in particular.
WPP-ScanGroup surged +8.55% to close at 16.50 and traded 4.003m shares worth 66.044m. WPP-ScanGroup remains -13.157% in 2018 and reported a +25.64% H1 2018 EPS acceleration.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Equity Group closed unchanged at 50.00 and traded 1.268m shares worth 63.608m. Equity trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 10.00 and accelerated H1 2018 EPS +17.408% and what caught my attention was Subsidiary outperformance and acceleration. Barclays Bank Kenya corrected -2.49% lower to close at 11.75 and traded 2.817m shares worth 33.219m. Barclays reported a +6.53% acceleration in H1 2018 EPS growth. Barclays Bank is +32.815% in 2018 on a Total Return Basis.
National Bank of Kenya reported an H1 2018 EPS [0.83], booked an H1 Exceptional item of [533.272m] and registered a -257.231% decline in H1 where they have reported a Loss after Tax of [282.736m] vs. a PAT of 179.822m in H1 2017. National Bank closed unchanged at 6.20.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
KenGen closed at 6.55 and traded 74,500 shares. Kenyan's share price has suffered contagion form events at KPLC and therefore is oversold and will embark on a sharp rebound in due course.
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