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Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

Great insights from @alykhansatchu , including at 15:50 - 16:53 on
#bobiwine , and China policy perhaps being more responsive in the
future to the generational shift in leadership from the older folk to
the ‘born-free’ generation.. #uganda

Home Thoughts

I love the Wizard of Oz

Oh, no my dear. I'm a very good man. I'm just a very bad Wizard.”

I am looking forward to going to Meru National Park with my Daughter Layla

I asked, ‘’Darling, how was it?’’
She said, “Daddy, I danced and I danced and I didn’t stop!’’
I wanted to pick her up, spin her as Jean Rhys wrote in her Novel
‘’Wide sargasso sea’’: Only the magic and the dream are true - all the
rest’s a lie'' And, “I must remem- ber about chandeliers and dancing,
about swans and roses and snow.”

Unlike most of the national parks in the magical Kenya, Meru National
Park features as one of the most spectacular safari destinations that
reward visitors with true wilderness experiences of lifetime. This
protected is undeniably the remotest and rugged and interestingly, the
least crowded offering visitors with untapped diversity of
attractions. Meru National Park is located on the Equator and bisected
by 13 most remarkable Rivers and numerous mountain fed streams that
rank this protected among the very few most incredible tourist sites
that shouldn’t miss out in your bucket list.

This park consists of Rahole, Kora, Bisanadi and Mwingi National
Reserve and it extends about 870 square kilometers. It is also known
for its amazing adventure experiences especially on how the 2 (two)
conservationists (Joy and George Adamson) brought up the lion cabs
(Elsa), weaned them up to their maturity stage. It is from this that
Meru National Park became popular especially after the worldwide
release of the 1966 film “Born Free.” When Elsa passed on, Joy buried
her and she was also buried in the same area, Adamson’s falls near the
Tana River. tour

Meru National Park was established in 1968 and it features diversity
of habitats and wildlife species and this makes it a natural wonder of
its own for you to explore and discover while on safari in Africa. The
prominent wildlife species for visitors to catch a glimpse at this
park include leopards, cheetah, elephants, zebras, lion, buffaloes,
leopards, hippos, lesser kudu, Oryx, gerenuk, hartebeests, gazelle,
rhino, giraffe and many more. Meru National Park also refuges reptiles
especially the cobra, python and puff adder. Meanwhile its Rivers
feature several hippos, crocodiles and many more water species. About
300 bird species thrive within the park and the notable ones include
the pel’s fishing owl, Kingfishers, rollers, bee eaters, starlings and
weavers, the unique palm nut vulture, sunbirds peter’s fin foot, red
necked falcon, Heuglins courser, hornbills, secretary birds, eagles,
brown backed woodpecker and many more.

Meru wildlife conservation area also offers visitors a chance to catch
a glimpse of its sceneries and landscape, view the thick vegetation
(the park is famous for its 5 distinct categories of vegetation),
forests and savannas with long grass, swamps and Rivers. This national
park also features diversity of sceneries that range from woodland at
1036 meters along Mount Nyambeni slopes, northeast of Mount Kenya to
vast plains which also come with the meandering riverbanks plus
scattered doum palms. Given its numerous rivers, the key fish species
that thrive and can be caught while on safari to the park include
tilapia, catch and barbell. Alternatively, you can embark on guided
walks to the summit of Mughwango hill where you will have 360 degree
views of Mount Kenya in the west to the large Meru plains in the east.

Macro Thoughts

J.P. Morgan's top quant, Marko Kolanovic, predicts a "Great Liquidity
Crisis" will hit financial markets, marked by flash crashes in stock
prices and social unrest.
The trillion-dollar shift to passive investments, computerized trading
strategies and electronic trading desks will exacerbate sudden, severe
stock drops, Kolanovic said.
Central banks will be forced to make unprecedented moves, including
direct purchases of equities, or there could even be negative income
taxes.
Timing of when this next crisis will occur is uncertain but markets
appear to be safe through the first half of 2019, he said.

If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

"Trump's aggressive foreign economic policy is the signature success
of this administration. It is highly effective — look at Venezuela to
see its most extreme output. Iran is in a similar bind. China is in
retreat notwithstanding some bravura talk. Trump can keep it up. It's
working a treat," Mr. Satchu told Sputnik.

Cryptocurrencies dropped sharply for the second time in less than 24
hours, sinking toward a nine-month low amid concern that broader
adoption of digital assets will take longer than some anticipated.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, tumbled as much as 9.8 percent
and was trading at $6,422 as of 1:25 p.m. in Hong Kong, according to
Bloomberg composite pricing. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, a
gauge of the largest digital assets, traded near its lowest level
since November 2017 as rival coins Ripple, Ether and Litecoin also
fell.

The next key level to watch for Bitcoin is $5,000, according to Innes,
who said a drop below that threshold may cause losses to accelerate.

Let me leave you with Hunter S.Thompson, “Life should not be a journey
to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and
well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of
smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming
“Wow! What a Ride!”

Political Reflections

"Reince Priebus, his former chief of staff, calls the presidential
bedroom, where Trump goes to tweet, “the devil’s workshop,” and early
mornings and Sunday nights, when Trump is at loose ends, “the witching
hour.” New York Times

Woodward describes “an administrative coup d’etat” and a “nervous
breakdown” of the executive branch, with senior aides conspiring to
pluck official papers from the president’s desk so he couldn’t see or
sign them.

“You walk around this place and act like you’re in charge, and you’re
not. You’re on staff!”

Ivanka Trump, who had special access to the president and worked
around Priebus, replied: “I’m not a staffer! I’ll never be a staffer.
I’m the first daughter.”

At $63 billion in 2017-18, its trade with Africa easily surpassed that
with the US and European partners. But China is in Africa, and in a
big way. Chinese trade with Africa’s 54 countries stood at $172
billion in 2017, nearly three times India’s.
India’s broader economic relations with Africa are less impressive
than many of its leaders care to admit. India’s investment in Africa
amounted to only $14 billion by 2016, ranking between Singapore and
Switzerland, and well behind its top investors of the US, UK, France,
and China. As Malancha Chakrabarty at the Observer Research Foundation
has pointed out, investment levels to Africa are often misstated as
over $47 billion has round-tripped through the tax haven of Mauritius
since 2008.

India’s loans to Africa, which received a $10 billion boost from Prime
Minister Modi at the 2015 India Africa Summit Forum, are similarly
modest in context. From 2000 to 2016, China provided $124 billion in
loans. And like China, India also places stringent economic conditions
on its African partners to contract mainly Indian companies and
supplies for projects covered by Indian finance.

China’s deepening military engagement in Africa also gives it a
footprint much deeper than India’s. Beijing opened its first military
base overseas last year in Djibouti at the western end of what India
regards as China’s “string of pearls”, a strategic containment policy
that also includes Sri Lanka, the Maldives and other countries in
India’s neighbourhood that have a growing economic dependency on
China.

Finally, from Sudan to South Africa, India can redouble its security
agenda along Africa’s eastern coast and settle its qualms with the
Quad (an evolving security alliance with the US, Japan, and Australia)
to deter Chinese navy dominance in the Indian Ocean. While Prime
Minister Modi may hope that China and India can work together to build
a better future in Asia, hedging against more tumultuous outcomes may
be wise.

International Markets

Euro 1.1633
Dollar Index 95.16
Japan Yen 111.37
Swiss Franc 0.9701
Pound 1.2916
Aussie 0.7177
India Rupee 72.065
South Korea Won 1123.45
Brazil Real 4.1447
Egypt Pound 17.91
South Africa Rand 15.4381

$TSLA bond trades record wide, spread to UST crosses 500 bp for 1st
time.  With a yield approaching 8% Tesla being priced out of the bond
market: new capital almost certainly will be in form of equity or
convertible.

Commodities

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

BEIJING (Reuters) - As President Xi Jinping gathered together leaders
from almost all African countries for a summit in Beijing in recent
days, some former Chinese officials and state media were busy mounting
an unusually strong defense of China’s role in the continent.
China has long bristled at accusations, mostly from Western nations,
that it is solely interested in Africa’s raw materials, and that its
no-strings-attached approach to loans and aid has only encouraged
graft and brought unsustainably high debt.
At the few news conferences during the summit, African reporters
peppered Chinese officials with questions about corruption,
environmental problems and concerns about a lack of Africans employed
in some of China’s projects.
Cheng Tao, a former head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Africa
division and previously China’s ambassador in Mali and Morocco, said
it was unfair to blame China for supporting governments accused of
corruption.
“An African friend told me, our government is extremely corrupt. How
come you’re still involved with them? Our government has asked the
Chinese government to build a bridge and a hospital, but the Chinese
government shouldn’t help them,” he said, without naming the country.
“I told him - you voted for this government. It’s the only government
we can deal with. But the bridge and the hospital are not built for
the president or officials, but are for the common people. So I think
this is another perspective that can be considered when looking at
this issue.”
Of the 10 bottom-ranked countries in last year’s corruption
perceptions index by Transparency International, four of them sent
their presidents to the summit - Equatorial Guinea, Somalia, Sudan and
South Sudan.
Since Xi took office six years ago, he has mounted war against
deeply-ingrained graft in his own country, and the government has been
keen to show it is not encouraging similar problems overseas where
China in involved.
Liu Guijin, China’s former special envoy to Africa, said China did not
want its money frittered away through corruption.
“China’s engagement in Africa is focused on its people and we do not
give our money to corrupt governments or officials,” said Liu, who was
previously deeply involved in efforts to end Sudan’s civil war and
still advises China’s government.
Indeed, a declaration adopted after the summit, released on Wednesday,
said China and Africa would continue to take a “zero tolerance”
approach to corruption.
Another area of rising concern has been the amount of debt African
countries now owe China. Xi offered Africa another $60 billion on
Monday.
Speaking in Ethiopia in March, then-U.S. Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson said African countries should be careful not to forfeit
their sovereignty when they accept loans from China and carefully
consider the terms of those agreements.
A senior Chinese official denied before the summit opened that his
country was engaging in “debt trap” diplomacy, and on Tuesday China’s
special envoy to the continent said China is helping Africa develop,
not pile up debt.
The overseas edition of the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s
Daily wrote in a commentary on Saturday that certain people it did not
name never tired of trying to attack China-Africa cooperation under
the guise of concern about debt or neo-colonialism.
It cited what it said was an African expression that there was
“nothing scary about a loan”.
“The crux is what you do with it. Do you go buy oxen and sheep to
expand production, or buy booze for a moment of fun?” the paper said.
African countries say China generally offers better terms, and is more
willing to provide money than the United States or Europe.
Liban Soleman, general coordinator of the Bureau of Coordination and
Planning for an Emerging Gabon, told Reuters on the summit’s sidelines
the idea that China is saddling African countries with debt they can’t
repay is “unfair”.
“I think that what the Chinese system has offered Africa is something
that is ... probably the most flexible, specifically with the system
between the grace periods and the very low interest rates,” he said.
“I think that the main element that people misunderstand is the
competitiveness of the infrastructure prices that the Chinese
companies are giving to African countries.”
China has acknowledged there are some problems it is working to fix.
Xi told a business summit on Monday that Chinese funds are not for
“vanity projects” and Chinese firms must respect local people and the
environment in Africa.
By the end of this year, China would have provided technical training
for more than 200,000 Africans, Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan
told a China-Africa forum on Sunday according to a Commerce Ministry
statement.
Jiang Zengwei, Chairman of the government-run China Council for the
Promotion of International Trade, said as Africans became increasingly
technologically able, there would be less need for Chinese workers to
be flown in.
“This is what we must do or we cannot foster a long-term cooperative
relationship,” he told reporters.

The dogs of war – cold, hot, trade, tariffs – bark while the Chinese
caravan plies the New Silk Roads. Call it a leitmotif of the young
21st century.
At the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, President
Xi Jinping has just announced a hefty US$60 billion package to
complement another US$60 billion pledged at the 2015 summit.
That breaks down to $15 billion in grants and interest-free loans; $20
billion in credit lines; a $10 billion fund for development financing;
$5 billion to finance imports from Africa; and waving the debt of the
poorest African nations diplomatically linked to China.
When China calls, all Africa answers. First, we had ministers from 53
African nations plus the African Union (AU) Commission approving the
Beijing Declaration and the FOCAC Action Plan (2019-21).
Then, after the $60 billion announcement, we had Beijing signing
memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with nine African nations –
including South Africa and Egypt – related to the New Silk Roads/Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI). Additionally, other 20 African nations are
discussing further cooperation agreements.
That does not exactly paint the picture of the BRI as a vicious debt
trap enabling China to take over Africa’s top strategic assets.
On the contrary, the BRI is seen as integrating with Africa’s own
Agenda 2063, a “strategic framework for the socio-economic
transformation of the continent over the next 50 years” tackling
unemployment, inequality and poverty.
Apart from letting the numbers speak for themselves, Xi deftly
counter-punched the current, massive BRI demonization campaign: “Only
the people of China and Africa have the right to comment on whether
China-Africa cooperation is doing well … No one should deny the
significant achievement of China-Africa cooperation based on their
assumptions and speculation.”
And once again Xi felt the need to stress the factor that does seduce,
Africa-wide – Chinese non-politicization of investments, and Chinese
non-interference in the internal affairs of African nations.
This comes right after Xi’s speech celebrating the five years of BRI,
on Aug. 27, when he stressed Beijing’s organizing foreign policy
concept for the foreseeable future has nothing to do with a “China
club.”
What that reveals, in fact, is a Deng Xiaoping-style “crossing the
river while feeling the stones” fine-tuning, bent on correcting
mistakes in what is still the BRI’s planning stages, and including the
approval of a mechanism of dispute resolution for myriad projects.
African leaders seem to be on board. For South African President Cyril
Ramaphosa, the FOCAC “refutes the view that a new colonialism is
taking hold in Africa, as our detractors would have us believe.” AU
chairman Paul Kagame, also the president of Rwanda, emphasized a
stronger Africa was an opportunity for investment, “rather than a
problem or a threat.”
According to the China Chamber of International Commerce, over 3,300
Chinese companies have invested Africa-wide in telecommunications,
transportation, power generation, industrial parks, water supply,
rental business for construction machinery, retail, schools, hotels
and hospitals.
China is, in fact, upgrading its investments in Africa beyond
infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture and energy and mineral
imports. China is Africa’s top trading partner since 2009; trade
expanded 14% in 2017, reaching $170 billion.
In November, Shanghai will host the first China International Import
Expo – jointly managed by the Ministry of Commerce and the Shanghai
municipal government, a convenient stage for African nations to
promote their proverbial “market potential.”
Xi depicted as a new and ruthless Mao? China mired in abysmal
corruption? China’s massive internal debt about to explode like a
volcano from hell? None of this seems to stick Africa-wide. What does
impress is that in three decades, a one-party system managed to
multiply China’s GDP per capita by a factor of 17. From a Global South
point of view, the lesson is “they must be doing something right.”
In parallel, there’s no evidence Africa will cease to be a key BRI
node for investment; a market with an expanding middle class receptive
to Chinese imports; and most of all, strategic reasons.
And then there’s the ultra-sensitive military front.
China’s first overseas military base was inaugurated on Aug. 1, 2017 –
on the exact 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The official Beijing spin is that Djibouti is a base for peacekeeping
and humanitarian missions, and to fight pirates based on the Yemeni
and Somali coastlines.
But it goes way beyond that. Djibouti is a geostrategic dream; on the
northwest Indian Ocean and at the southern path to the Red Sea, en
route to the Suez Canal and with access to the Gulf of Aden, the
Arabian Gulf and most of all the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This prime
economic connectivity translates into transit control of 20% of all
global exports and 10% of total annual oil exports.
Not accidentally, Djibouti’s top capital source is China. Chinese
companies fund nearly 40% of Djibouti’s top investment projects. That
includes the $490 million Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, whose
strategic importance far exceeds elephants, zebras and antelopes
“roaming freely alongside a railway.”
Djibouti’s aim, as expressed by President Ismail Omar Guelleh – who
visited Xi in Beijing last November – is to position itself as the
number one connectivity/transshipment node for all of Africa.
Now compare it with the Pentagon’s AFRICOM agenda – as in an array of
Special Ops deploying nearly 100 secret missions across 20 African
nations at any given time.
As Nick Turse extensively documented in his must-read book Tomorrow’s
Battlefield, there are at least 50 US military bases Africa-wide –
ranging from what AFRICOM designates as “forward operating sites” to
fuzzy “cooperative security locations” or “non-enduring contingency
locations.” Not to mention 36 AFRICOM bases in 24 African nations that
have not previously made it to official reports.
What this spells out, once again, is further evidence of the
ever-replicating Empire of Bases. And that brings us to Africa’s stark
“contingency location” choice. In the ultra-high-stakes development
game, who’re you gonna call? FOCAC and the New Silk Roads, or
Ghostbusters AFRICOM?

The Finance Ministry is targeting a budget shortfall of 6.5 percent of
gross domestic product next year, compared to 7.4 percent this year,
according to a medium-term expenditure plan that sets its fiscal
course until 2021. At the same time, it forecasts mineral-royalty and
mine-profit tax revenue increasing by about a quarter, as copper
output grows 3.7 percent and prices remain flat.

That suggests an increase in rates for both profit tax and royalties
for companies including Glencore Plc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd. and
Barrick Gold Corp., said Mark Bohlund, an Africa economist with
Bloomberg.

“The sharp increase in mining royalties and mining corporation income
tax appear to be based on a change in the taxation regime,” he said in
reply to emailed questions. A Finance Ministry spokesman didn’t
immediately respond to a request for comment.

Eurobonds have been the world’s worst performers this year. Yields on
its $1 billion bond due 2024 rose to a record 16.4 percent on
Wednesday.

Bohlund was skeptical of the targets in the spending plan, saying the
document “can be viewed as pure fiction as it has little basis on
real-life economic conditions.”

In a sign of how skittish investors are about Zambia, its Eurobonds
now yield more than those of neighbor Mozambique, which has been in
default for 18 months and has made little progress on a restructuring.
The gap was as wide as 11 percentage points at the start of the year,
but has closed as Zambia’s talks with the International Monetary Fund
for a bailout stall and the emerging-market selloff buffets the
southern African country. Spreads on its 2024 dollar notes have risen
to almost 1,350 basis points over U.S. Treasuries.

Ethiopian Broadcasting Corp: #Ethiopia premier Abiy Ahmed witnesses
first Ethiopian commercial vessel transporting 11,000 tons of cargo
from #Ertirea Port of Massawa to China, officially inaugurated for
Ethiopian use after two decades. Abiy heads this afternoon to Port of
Assab

And the East African Port Landscape upto the Bab~El~Mandeb is
seriously fluid. Djibouti is a prize in Xi’s grasp Eritrea is a
Phoenix Lamu looks dead on the water now @Ramah_Nyang Your Port
comment

“Between 1971 and 1979 (Idi Amin dictatorship - Ed), there was no
parliament…Don’t think that you are in heaven; do what took you there.
You should know where the power of that parliament comes from… in
fact, I can do away with that parliament,” Museveni, also a retired
army general, is quoted to have said.

“And we brought it [parliament] back, so do whatever you are doing
knowing…” Museveni reportedly said.

I refer you to Uganda. Bobi and Barbi Wine have now arrived in the US.
But what caught my attention was a Video of Revelers at a Tarrus Riley
concert who while chanting ‘People Power’ threw bottles at @BebeCoolUG
while he was on stage performing and later ended his performance.
Inflexion points are difficult to discern but this is one right here.

A Debt crisis and a political inflexion point where those who fought
for Independence hand over to the ''Born Free'' Generation is in fact
a ''double whammy''

What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

I think the Rand is at risk of a precipitous, asymmetric downside move
as far as 17.00 to the Dollar. Traders might consider buying 1 Year
Maturity One Touch ZAR Puts with a 17.00 strike.

Congo has recorded its first case of Ebola in the eastern trading hub
of Butembo, a city of close to a million with strong trade links to
neighbouring Uganda, the health ministry said on Wednesday.
The current Ebola outbreak is believed to have killed 85 people since
July and infected another 39. Most have been in villages but about 20
cases have been in Beni, a city of several hundred thousand people
with close links to Uganda.
But Butembo, about 55 kilometres (35 miles) away, is two or three
times the size of Beni. It straddles a major trading route for
consumer goods entering Congo from East Africa, and for Congolese
exports of artisanal gold, coltan, timber and other goods to East
African ports via Uganda.

Serious human rights violations, including some which constitute
crimes against humanity, have continued to be committed in Burundi, in
2017 and 2018. In its report presented today, the United Nations
Commission of Inquiry on Burundi describes summary executions,
arbitrary arrests and detentions, acts of torture and other cruel,
inhuman or degrading treatment, sexual violence and forced
disappearances. The Commission is also concerned with the shrinking
democratic space in Burundi as well as the growing impoverishment of
the population.

“The violations that the Commission documented in its first report
have persisted throughout the past year. Some practices, such as the
disposal of bodies or operating at night, tend to make these
violations less visible. Nevertheless, they are still real”, stated
Doudou Diène, the President of the Commission of Inquiry. “The
Constitutional Referendum organized in May 2018 and the campaign for
the upcoming elections in 2020 have resulted in persecution, threats
and intimidation towards persons suspected of opposing the Government
or not sharing the ruling party’s line, whether proven or not.”

Tier 1 banks interbank rate averaged 4.90% vis-à-vis Tier 2 and Tier 3
banks which averaged of 9.00%. (Situation could get worse for small
banks after removal of the deposit floor)

The 266-mile (428km), 400-kilovolt power line is critical for the Lake
Turkana Wind Power project, to carry electricity from Loiyangalani in
the north to Suswa in the centre of Kenya.
Danish wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems, supplier of the wind
farm’s 365 turbines, said last year the wind farm was ready for launch
but would be idle until the government installed the transmission
line.
“What is left now is the official commissioning for the power plant
and the transmission line,” Energy Minister Charles Keter said on
Tuesday during a site tour of the transmission station that will
receive the electricity.
“This a very major project, 300 MW. Within the next one month, we will
feel the difference once the line has run very well. For me,
everything being constant, we are seeing by December we will be
comfortable in terms of our generation, and in terms of evacuation
(transmission). We will see the cost of power coming down,” he said.