|Friday 14th of September 2018
Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
Is Africa getting into a 'debt trap' with China? @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory
China is Africa's largest trading partner and has already spent tens
of billions of dollars in investment and loans - with the promise of
much more to come.
From roads and railways to ports, the Chinese government is backing
large-scale projects across Africa as part of its so-called Belt and
The leaders of more than 50 African countries have been in Beijing for
a two-day summit.
China's President Xi Jinping offered $60bn in new financing deals. But
what are the long-term financial risks?
Presenter: Laura Kyle
Dan Wang - Economist Intelligence Unit analyst
Lahcen Haddad - Morocco's former tourism minister and MP
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of investment advisory firm Rich Management Ltd
Source: Al Jazeera News
"And She said to me, Daddy, I danced and I danced and I didn't stop"
I remember a time when My then 11 Year Old Daughter Layla had attended
the School Disco and when I picked her up, her eyes glittered and she
could scarcely stand still and I asked
''Darling, How was it?''
''And She said to me, Daddy, I danced and I danced and I didn't stop''
I wanted to pick her up and spin her and spin her because as Jean Rhys
wrote in her Novel ''Wide Sargasso Sea'' "Only the magic and the dream
are true - all the rest's a lie."
A Suspended Blue Ocean
Is a suspended blue ocean.
The stars are the fish
The planets are the white whales
I sometimes hitch a ride on,
And the sun and all light
Have forever fused themselves
Into my heart and upon
There is only one rule
On this Wild Playground,
For every sign Hafiz has ever seen
Reads the same.
They all say,
"Have fun, my dear; my dear, have fun,
In the Beloved's Divine
O, in the Beloved's
Erdogan's hocus pocus monetary policy," - Economist: via @SputnikInt
Law & Politics
"Now we are reverting back to the status quo ante, the tide has now
reversed. President Erdogan's voodoo economics worked in the time of
the golden flood of liquidity but under today's less benign conditions
no-one except die-hard Erdogan-supporting Turkish nationalists is
prepared to throw good money after money gone bad on the basis of
Erdogan's hocus pocus monetary policy," Mr. Satchu told Sputnik.
Rupee rallies with bonds as inflation eases 71.785
“The markets are on edge over potential measures to intervene in the
rupee’s weakness,” said Sue Trinh, head of Asia foreign-exchange
strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “Broader
momentum-driven liquidation in dollar longs is also at play,” aiding
the Indian currency’s advance, she said.
Decreasing inflation is a welcome piece of news for the Reserve Bank
of India, which is under duress to take stronger action to defend the
rupee, after having already depleted billions of dollars of reserves
in trying to do so. The currency has continued to set one record low
after another amid a broader emerging-market meltdown.
The rupee jumped 0.5 percent to 71.82 per dollar, adding to
Wednesday’s 0.7 percent advance that was its largest since May 25. The
yield on India’s benchmark 10-year bonds dropped three basis points to
8.11 percent, after falling five basis points on Wednesday. The key
S&P BSE Sensex gauge of stocks climbed 0.5 percent.
Wave of protests rattles @KagutaMuseveni @Africa_Conf
The Bobi Wine protests are growing into demonstrations against
autocracy and impunity as the veteran President's grip falters
Ever since President Yoweri Museveni's personal guards beat up and
almost killed the popular musician-turned-politician Robert
Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, on 14 August, the normally effective
mixture of security force brutality and mass detentions has failed to
quell growing protest. What began as popular outrage at the treatment
of Bobi Wine in detention, including savage beatings and torture, has
become a general protest against the impunity of Museveni, his family,
the security forces, and their arbitrary exercise of power.
For two years now, discontent with Museveni has been coalescing around
the removal of the 75-year age limit on candidates for presidential
office, even though the limit was only introduced in 2005 (AC Vol 57
No 19, Age cannot weary him and Vol 58 No 21, The seven ages of
Museveni). Museveni is 74. A private member's bill to raise the limit
caused a furore two years ago, and when legislation came to parliament
in September last year, passing eventually, troops were sent into the
parliamentary chamber after fisticuffs broke out among the MPs, among
them Bobi Wine. The presidential guard moved in, dragging MPs off to
vans where they were beaten.
Bobi Wine's diffuse 'People Power' movement might have eventually
faded away had it not been for Museveni's personal order – so Kampala
sources report – to have him 'disciplined' after he went to the
north-western border town of Arua to hold an election meeting on 13
August. Members of the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)
were challenging the ruling National Resistence Movement (NRM) for the
seat but it was Kasiano Wadri, an ex-MP backed as an independent by
Bobi Wine who was victorious in the poll.
Soldiers with the elite Special Forces Command (SFC – the new name for
the Presidential Guard), of which Museveni's son Major General Muhoozi
Kainerugaba has been commander, descended on the hotel where Bobi Wine
and other opposition politicians were staying, breaking down doors,
firing their weapons and beating Bobi Wine and others with metal bars.
Witnesses say Bobi Wine's driver, Yasin Kawuma, was shot dead.
A source in the domestic intelligence service, the Internal Security
Organisation (ISO), told Africa Confidential that at least six people
died as soldiers were spurred on by an angry Museveni, who was
following the unfolding events on the SFC's tactical communications
network. He may have been provoked, sources say, by stones hitting one
of the cars in his convoy, or possibly by the sheer size of the crowds
that have been greeting Bobi Wine at his rallies and concerts. When it
appeared that Bobi Wine and another critically battered MP, Francis
Zaake, might die in custody, they were hurriedly treated – Bobi Wine
by army doctors – before being released. Bobi Wine is among 33 who
have been charged with treason.
Protests in Kampala spread to other towns and attempts by the
government to roll back public anger collapsed. The treason charges
and a hastily released picture of guns supposedly recovered from Bobi
Wine's hotel did not do the trick. Several messages by Museveni on
social media were widely ridiculed but the sign that things might be
going seriously wrong for the President was the conspicuous silence of
his followers in the NRM. Public pressure –especially from
international coverage of the affair – forced the army on Museveni's
orders to suspend the court martial of Bobi Wine and allow him to
leave the country. He is now receiving medical treatment in the United
Museveni compounded his inept handling of the unrest in a rambling
three-and-a-half-hour speech on the evening of 10 September. The
address was meant to reassure the public about security after the
assassination of a popular police officer, Muhammad Kirumira, by
gunmen on a motorbike. Rejecting the advice of his minders, we hear,
the President delivered a homily about the economic prosperity of
Uganda, surprising many who had expected to hear a plan for dealing
with the killings. He repeated his familiar tune that the young should
be grateful for the economic gains of the NRM after over three
decades. He angered many listeners by saying his own children were
'busy with their wealth' and 'not looking for jobs' because as a
parent he had provided for them. The reactions on social media were
Museveni's political position has also been eroded recently by a
failed campaign to reform the system of land tenure. He embarked on a
nationwide tour to promote the radical change but failed to find
popular support. His ignominious retreat from this policy has also
weakened his standing. And his attempt to clamp down on social media
by licensing WhatsApp also smacks of desperation.
Kirumira is the latest in a number of government and security figures
to have been assassinated by gunmen on motorbikes. Victims include:
Andrew Felix Kaweesi, a former deputy head of the Uganda Police killed
in 2017 and described as a 'mentor' to Kirumira; Joan Namezzi Kagezi,
a prosecutor shot in 2015; and Abiriga Ibrahim, an ultra-loyal NRM MP
who supported the recent removal of age limits on presidential
candidates (AC Vol 59 No 4, An inspector calls, no longer & Vol 56 No
8, Kampala murder mystery). Ibrahim's death in June triggered the
by-election in Arua.
There is a widespread belief that the killings are carried out by
rogue elements in the security services loyal to former police chief
Gen. Kale Kayihura. The general was Uganda's longest-serving police
chief and Museveni's chief enforcer during 12 years of repression
which critics say included murder and extortion. However, when
controversy over the illegal rendition of Rwandan political refugees
blew up, Museveni sacked him, and he was arrested for alleged high
crimes on 18 July. Kayihura had also been blamed for failure to
respond to a string of rapes and murders of 24 women in the Entebbe
township near the official residence of the President (AC Vol 59 No
16, Backers and attackers).
The head of military intelligence, Brig. Abel Kandiho, is one of those
who blames the killings on a network linked to Kayihura. He has
privately accused the former police chief of waging a campaign aimed
at depicting the inner cities as ungovernable. Others have said it was
Gen Kayihura's closeness to the President's wife, a formidable
political figure in her own right, that caused his downfall. Janet
Museveni is the education minister and often spoken of as a potential
successor to her husband.
The current damage to the President's personal standing matters
because so much power is concentrated in his hands and has been for so
long. In the past 15 years he has concentrated power in the executive,
creating a government within a government at State House, bringing the
wider security establishment, the army and police under the indirect
supervision of Special Forces Command and removing all constitutional
barriers to his continued stay in power. In the run-up to the 2016
general election he shored up his position as the only candidate of
his party. In a meeting with NRM MPs after the Bobi Wine controversy
started – after which Speaker of the House Rebecca Kadaga wrote to him
asking him to explain the torture allegations – he reportedly said he
could even abolish Parliament if he wanted to.
Some of his close advisors say that the violence by the security
forces is the only option the President feels he has left to bring
dissatisfied and unemployed youth angry at 32 years of his rule and
routine corruption back under control.
Now the project will be funded by EXIM Bank of China.
Kampala, Uganda | HAGGAI MATSIKO | A Chinese contractor paid officials
and commission agents a whooping $ 200 million (approx.750Bn) in order
to secure a contract to construct the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR),
President Yoweri Museveni has been told, according to insiders.
Insiders say the contractor in question, China Harbour Engineering
Company (CHEC), has made these revelations to President Museveni and
even provided a list of officials to whom the payments were made,
well-placed sources have told The Independent.
The Chinese were later informed that President Museveni was
considering cancelling the contract if they did not reduce the price.
That is when, in the final two definitive meetings, the Chinese
officials told Museveni that part of the reason they could not reduce
the contract price was because they had already paid hefty commissions
to the tune of $200 million.
The President immediately demanded to know to whom this money had been
paid to. With stakes so high, insiders say, the Chinese offered to
reduce by $120 million and provided a list of names they had paid the
Having learnt of the hefty bribes CHEC had paid to Uganda officials,
President Museveni on Aug.16, advised Chinese officials never to pay
Ethiopia's new leader is whittling away the old guard's power @FinancialTimes's @davidpilling
It is New Year in Ethiopia, a modern republic and former ancient
monarchy in the Horn of Africa that still follows the Julian calendar.
To celebrate, Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s 42-year-old prime minister and
the most dynamic leader in Africa, opened the frontier with old-enemy
Eritrea, allowing families separated for a generation to pour across
the border in tearful reunion.
These days, it feels like New Year in Ethiopia every day. Mr Abiy has
been prime minister for less than six months, after the abrupt
departure of his predecessor. Such has been the thirst for political
change that his ascendance, and the startling use he has made of his
new-found authority, have been greeted with near-euphoria. Polls
suggest he has a 90 per cent support rate.
People in a country with a median age of 19 snap up books about their
new hero, the first prime minister drawn from the politically
marginalised Oromo ethnic group. The Oromo make up about 35 per cent
of the country’s swelling population of 105m.
Mr Abiy, a former army intelligence officer, speaks all three of the
country’s main languages. His father was Muslim and his mother
Christian. Educated in computer engineering in Addis Ababa, business
studies at London’s University of Greenwich and with a doctorate in
conflict resolution, Mr Abiy is an insider with an outsider’s
perspective on his country's complexities and contradictions. The new
prime minister has become a sort of cross between Che Guevara and
Emmanuel Macron. Almost inevitably, his rise has spawned the term
Abiymania. So far, despite an assassination attempt, Abiymania has not
bitten the dust.
Abiy Ahmed has spent as much time challenging power structures as
Since April, Mr Abiy has wasted no time. As well as concluding an
undreamt-of peace deal with Eritrea, he has released thousands of
political prisoners, legalised opposition parties, and eased
restrictions on tight internet controls. He has proposed opening the
telecoms and airline sectors to foreign capital, a change that would
breathe new life into an economy reaching the limits of state
Mr Abiy has also begun to dismantle much of the state apparatus that
had brought Ethiopia to the brink of political implosion. The sudden
resignation of his predecessor in February ended a period of popular
revolt that had threatened to sweep away the Ethiopian People’s
Revolutionary Democratic Front, the four-party coalition that had run
the country since overthrowing the Marxist Derg in 1991.
The locus of that rebellion was Mr Abiy’s home state of Oromia. Though
nominally part of the four-party coalition, the Oromo felt — in common
with other ethnic groups — that the EPRDF placed too much power in the
hands of Tigrayans, who comprised just 6 per cent of the population.
Under Tigrayan stewardship — some would say dictatorship — Ethiopia
had embarked on one of Africa’s boldest experiments in social and
economic transformation. Modelling itself on successful Asian
economies, the tight-knit leadership began to plot Ethiopia’s escape
from poverty. It ran a ruthlessly centralised economy, funnelling
scarce resources into state priorities including education, health,
road, rail, electricity, dams and industrial parks.
The results have been impressive, particularly to an international
community hungry for an African success story. Growth — at least
officially measured — has regularly topped 10 per cent. Child
mortality rates have plummeted.
But the political foundations on which Ethiopia's experiment was built
were crumbling. The EPRDF maintained power as much through repression
as through social progress. It facilitated land grabs, often in
Oromia, and was widely accused of corruption. Tens of thousands of
people were locked up. Hundreds were shot in the street. Many
prisoners — as Mr Abiy daringly conceded in parliament — were tortured
in what he likened to state-sponsored terrorism against its own
people. Mr Abiy’s rise to power looks like an attempt by the EPRDF to
save its own skin and keep the experiment in social transformation
going. But Mr Abiy has spent as much time challenging power structures
as preserving them.
The era of Tigrayan domination is over. Ethiopia’s new leader has
removed prominent Tigrayan figures, including the head of the army and
the security services. Last month, he cancelled a contract to install
turbines for the $4.8bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam awarded to a
military-run company with close links to the ruling elite.
Day by day, Mr Abiy is whittling down the political and economic power
of the old guard. One danger is that he will be stopped. Another is
that he will be corrupted by power and adulation. He would not be the
first. But the story so far has been almost universally positive. The
wonder is how on earth he is getting away with it.
Kenya says @IMFNews stand-by deal over, will continue engaging with the fund @ReutersAfrica
NAIROBI, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Kenya’s stand-by arrangement with the
International Monetary Fund has expired, Finance Minister Henry Rotich
said on Thursday and it was not immediately clear what Kenya could
seek from the IMF now.
Kenya had secured a six-month extension for its stand-by credit
arrangement of $989.8 million from the International Monetary Fund in
March, which was due to expire in mid-September.
“Yes, the program has ended,” Rotich told reporters, when asked about
the IMF stand-by arrangement.
The IMF standby Facility was never drawn down and was always about
signalling. We have dived into the Eurobond Markets and the Facility
was a Signal to that market and others that we were deserving of a
Policy-making Premium and frankly the IMF Facility was cheap at the
price because it had a beneficial effect on our borrowing spread. I
also appreciate that we are sitting at a record high in regard to FX
reserves. However, if you look around the World today, what was once a
benign environment [for EM and the Frontier which were surfing a
Golden Wave of practically free Dollar liquidity] has become dark,
turbulent and violent. Look at Turkey where Erdogan's Turkish Lira is
in freefall, India where the rupee is trading new all time lows and
also the FED's balance sheet [reducing and choking off cheap dollars]
and here in Africa look at Zambia where the bond prices are pricing in
a default and therefore to forgo the Facility now would seem perverse.
You are throwing over an insurance policy just when you need it most.
So I for one think that the macho Talk is poorly advised. Therefore,
We should be prudent and not cavalier at this juncture.
Kenya to Let $1.5 Billion IMF Standby Loan Expire, Treasury Says @business
Kenya’s Treasury will allow a $1.5-billion International Monetary Fund
standby loan to expire and is deciding whether to arrange a new
facility, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said.
The funding that’s been in place since March 2016 has been available
to protect Kenya’s economy from exogenous shocks, and served as an
assurance to investors in the country’s financial assets. The program
was scheduled to expire in March, but was extended by six months to
allow for program reviews delayed by last year’s protracted elections.
It’s scheduled to lapse on Thursday.
“There’s nothing unique about a program ending,” Rotich told reporters
Thursday in the capital, Nairobi. “We had a successful two-year
program, which is now coming to an end and we will continue to engage
with the fund with a view to enter into a new arrangement or
relationship. We can still engage and get back into it if we think it
The shilling dropped as much as 0.3 percent by 3:14 p.m. to 101.20 per
dollar, its weakest level in more than three months. Yields on the
country’s benchmark 10-year Eurobonds gained 1 basis point to 7.666
While Kenya isn’t facing a balance of payments crisis, “the
credibility that is attached to an IMF approval or acknowledgment
should not be discounted,” Jibran Qureishi, regional economist for
Stanbic Holdings Ltd. in Nairobi, said in an emailed research note
The IMF froze access to the facility in June 2017 after the government
failed to meet fiscal-deficit targets following unplanned expenditure
to mitigate the impact of a drought and finance the elections.
“We should be relying less and less on IMF facilities especially
because we have come of age in macroeconomic management and we are
able to go to the international capital markets with or without the
fund,” Rotich said.
Kenya, which didn’t draw down on the standby loan, has narrowed its
current-account deficit to below 6 percent and is targeting a budget
shortfall of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product in the current
fiscal year through June 2019, compared with 7.2 percent last year.
Analysts at companies including Moody’s Investors Service and BMI
Research have expressed concern that Kenya is living beyond its means
with debt as a ratio of gross domestic product expected to reach 60
percent in the current fiscal year. Total debt increased to 5.04
trillion shillings ($49.8 billion) by June, according to Treasury
Kenya’s debt is sustainable at 49 percent of net present value and the
Treasury intends to keep it below 50 percent, Treasury Principal
Secretary Kamau Thugge said earlier on Thursday. The IMF recommended
the government not exceed a threshold of 74 percent of net present
value, he said.
Chief executives and employees of banks who helped ship out billions of shillings from the (NYS) will be arrested and prosecuted the Director of Public Prosecutions (@ODPP_KE ) Noordin Haji has said. @dailynation
Bank executives and persons who are convicted for handling illicit
cash face a Sh1 million fine and a three-year jail term, while
institutions including banks, credit unions facilitating such deals
could be fined up to Sh20 million upon conviction. Banks could also
lose their licences.
CBK earlier Wednesday said the findings of its investigations had been
passed onto investigators to assess whether they would bring any
Those penalised are KCB Group (Sh149.5 million), Equity Bank (Sh89.5
million), Standard Chartered Bank-Kenya (ShSh77.5 million), Diamond
Trust Bank (Sh56 million) and Co-operative Bank of Kenya (Sh20
“The second phase of the investigations will involve use of these
findings by other investigators, inter alia, assessment of criminal
culpability by the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) and
the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP),” CBK said in
its statement. The CBK also said more banks would be investigated.
On Thursday, several commercial banks heads and boards were understood
to have convened crisis meetings to assess their compliance levels
with anti-money laundering guidelines as panic spread after the CBK
“I have met with the Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya and with
the Head of the Financial Reporting Centre to discuss and agree with
them how we can ensure the banking system is not used to launder the
proceeds of theft and fraud. From today those banks that break our
anti-money laundering laws and regulations will, at a minimum, lose
their banking licences.”
Nigeria Woes Sees MTN's Market Value Sink Below Safaricom @BBGAFrica
Once Africa’s largest wireless carrier by market value, MTN Group
Ltd.’s shares have been pummeled by a regulatory crisis in Nigeria.
With the company facing $10 billion in claims from authorities, the
plunge suggests a zero valuation is being placed on the Nigerian
business, according to Morgan Stanley. The drop has seen Nairobi-based
Safaricom Plc overtake its Johannesburg-based rival in value even
though it has less than a 10th of MTN’s 223 million customers and
operates in Kenya, while MTN has units in 21 countries.
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device”
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.