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Thursday 20th of September 2018 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice Africa |
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door I had to find the passage back To the place I was before “Relax,” said the night man, “We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! “ What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.
Conclusions
It took a long time to unwind but unwind it will
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30-APR-2018 :: "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history." Law & Politics |
The Events that took place on Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom and during the Inter-Korean Summit were breathtaking for the Hollywood Optics. The Opening Shot of Kim Jong Un surrounded by a Phalanx of North Korean Officials [later replayed as Chairman Kim sat in his Presidential Vehicle surrounded by his Ninja bodyguards] was almost as good as the opening Sequence in PT Anderson's Boogie Nights [Steadicam operator Andy Shuttleworth]. This was Cinema of the highest level which is no surprise when You consider that Kim Jong-Il the Father was obsessed with Cinema and amassed arguably the world’s largest personal film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies. Kim Jong-Il also had a penchant for Hennessy Paradis cognac and for two years in the mid-1990s, he was the world's largest buyer of Hennessy Paradis cognac, importing up to $800,000 of the stuff a year. Kim Jong-Il began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and agitation department and its clear that Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo Jong who holds the same role and evidently handles all the optics, is a chip off the old Block. Friday was tip-top Geopolitical Optics. Mike Pompeo, the newly minted US Secretary of State [His predecessor was fired via Twitter] had visited Pyongyang the previous week and pronounced; that the young North Korean leader was "a smart guy who's doing his homework"
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12-FEB-2018 :: he is the buffer state between China and more than 30,000 US soldiers parked on their doorstep in South Korea. Law & Politics |
“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another paradox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu
South Korea is set to be peeled off and going by his puppy dog smiles President Moonriver will be in PyongYang before you can pronounce Kim Yo Jong correctly. Russia always had their back. China was never interested in bringing him to heel. After all, he is the buffer state between China and more than 30,000 US soldiers parked on their doorstep in South Korea.
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18 SEP 17 :: "A screaming comes across the sky" North Korea. @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
Gravity’s Rainbow is a 1973 novel by Thomas Pynchon which is about the design, production and dispatch of V-2 rockets by the German military. In particular, it features the quest undertaken by several characters to uncover the secret of a mysterious device named the “Schwarzgerät” (black device), slated to be installed in a rocket with the serial number “00000”. As the world watches PyongYang, I cannot help wondering if Kim Jong-Un has read Pynchon which speaks of “A screaming comes across the sky” and North Korea.
“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
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@realDonaldTrump's Trade War Enters a Dangerous New Phase @economics Law & Politics |
As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, with both parties imposing higher tariffs on the other, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross tried to defuse some of the tension. Because America’s 10 percent tariff on some $200 billion worth of Chinese imports is “spread across thousands and thousands of products,” he noted, “nobody is going to actually notice it at the end of the day.”
This argument has been met by scorn, but has a disturbing grain of truth to it. It is also a reason that the trade war may be worse, not better, than expected.
To see why, it’s necessary to understand something called “tax salience theory.” It is a basic principle of economics that consumers notice changes in market prices and react accordingly. But tax salience theory considers why consumers are more bothered by some taxes than others.
For example, consumers (and voters) seem to be especially irritated by high gas prices. Drivers have to buy gas regularly, the price is advertised conspicuously, and higher gas expenses typically come out of consumers’ discretionary income. The net result is that gas taxes are probably lower than is socially optimal, considering that congestion, road wear and climate change may imply a fairly high gas tax. Because voters can so easily notice gas taxes, they hate them more than they ought to. Another example: When highway tolls are collected electronically, consumers tend to mind less, because they are less aware of the payment, and that leads to higher tolls.
Given that tariffs also worsen relations with China, and increase the risk of a broader breakdown in international cooperation, these latest escalations are especially worrisome: They may have introduced American politicians to a dangerous and essentially cost-free weapon. Welcome to the next phase of the Trump administration.
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09-JUL-2018 :: Tariff wars, who blinks first? Law & Politics |
James Dean was an iconic American actor, who tapped into the universal yearning and angst of nearly every adolescent human being with a raw connection that has surely not been surpassed since. In one of his most consequential films, Rebel without a Cause, two players (read, teenage boys) decide to settle a dispute (read, teenage girl) by way of near-death experiences. Each speeds an automobile towards a cliff. A simple rule governs the challenge: the first to jump out of his automo- bile is the chicken and, by universally accepted social convention, concedes the object in dispute. The second to jump is victorious, and, depending on context, becomes gang leader, prom king, etc.
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There's No Stopping King Dollar, Robo Traders and Compliance @business Law & Politics |
King Dollar is unlikely to lose its crown before the end of the year.
That’s the consensus among participants at a currency conference. Among the reasons for its trend to continue: a hawkish Federal Reserve backed up by U.S. economic fundamentals, a European Central Bank on hold until late next year and Brexit.
“I see the dollar going stronger,” said Thomas Wind, head of foreign exchange and trading at Woodman Asset Management AG. “I can’t see really what should change that besides inflation, weaker numbers out of China and if Europe and the ECB goes a bit more aggressive on the rates side.”
Predictions of the death of voice trading with the advent of the updated MiFID regulations appear to be coming true. Andreas Anschperger, head of currency trading in Frankfurt for Allianz Global Investors, said not a single trade had been executed by voice on his desk over the last few months, with the once-common method now reserved for “emergency cases.”
Aside from the decline of voices, the next hot topic of discussion was artificial intelligence and how it can be used to further expand automation efforts in the currency trading sphere.
“The algorithms are getting much more advanced and dynamic,” said Andrew Maack, global head of foreign-exchange trading at Vanguard Group Inc. “They’re changing their behavior based on what they’re seeing real time, they’re adjusting for real time liquidity in the markets.”
The likely path of Britain’s exit from the European Union continues to divide investors. Predictions at the gathering ranged from no Brexit at all to a so-called hard Brexit, where Britain leaves the bloc without a deal. Some thought the tide had turned over the preceding few weeks, with signs that both sides may be more open to compromise.
Conclusions
.@RencapMan added some great nuance - Please watch his interview. In essence, Trump he predicts will declare victory before the Mid-Terms - then he expects the Tariff War to resume in 2019.
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17-SEP-2018 :: The Worry is what happens if it metasizes even further? The Dollar is seriously weaponised. The US economy is blowing hot Law & Politics |
Since the beginning of 2018 the US has been reducing its balance sheet, reducing the amount of Dollars and also increasing the interest rate on those Dollars. The Dollar which had appeared like a Toy Gun has suddenly metasized into an AK47. The Worry is what happens if it metasizes even further? The Dollar is seriously weaponised. The US economy is blowing hot. The risk is that US interest rates will go higher than the market is currently predicting. Punch-drunk markets need to sober up fast. Hyperbolic and populist responses are inversely correlated to the state of the real economy, note Nicholas Maduro's Venezuela and President Erdogan.
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In perhaps the wildest day yet for the nascent Weed Inc., shares in Tilray took a ride reminiscent of the Bitcoin craze and even the height of the dot-com bubble. @business International Trade |
The maker of cannabis products nearly doubled before wiping out the entire gain in less than an hour, only to finish 40 percent higher than where it started. Sure, Tesla has delivered some whipsaw sessions and AMD has tripled this year, but Wednesday’s moves had a different feel. “It’s almost like everyone wanted to express their fear and greed through one entity,” Michael Antonelli, an institutional equity sales trader and managing director at Robert W. Baird & Co., said by phone. “It’s fun to watch. It’s the wild west right now for cannabis. It isn’t the kind of thing that institutions would touch.” Almost $6.5 billion worth of Tilray shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges Wednesday, second only to Amazon.com’s $7.6 billion -- a stock almost 47 times the size of Tilray’s $20 billion market valuation. The weed company finished the day bigger than 40 percent of the companies in the S&P 500. As Twitter buzzed with pot jokes and incredulous takes on the rally, news hit that a private equity fund backed by billionaire Peter Thiel held 76 percent of Tilray. Three of the fund’s founders joined him in the billionaire club, at least on paper. “The behavior is very reminiscent of the internet bubble,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services. “A nascent industry, a company with what is viewed as first mover advantage, a small float and some media hype is a dangerous recipe for investors.” Then things really took off. Tilray surged another 25 percent in 15 minutes to touch an intraday high of $300.00 at 2:50 p.m. in New York -- a gain of 94 percent. Then it cratered, plunging enough in two minutes to trigger an automatic trading halt, a mechanism put in place after the flash crash of 2010 to prevent prices from spiraling out of control before humans have time to sort out whether the moves are justified. When trading resumed after the prescribed 10-minute break, shares shot higher, tripping another stop. The next resumption led to a plunge and another time out. Sellers were ready. In minutes, Tilray plunged to $151, wiping out all of the day’s gains and setting off another trading halt shortly before the close. This time the bulls pounced, pushing the stock higher by almost 40 percent. It ended at $214.06. “We saw Tesla making some crazy moves a little over a month ago. That was peanuts compared with Tilray,” said Don Selkin, chief market strategist at Newbridge Securities Corp. “ It has nothing to do with the long-term outlook on the industry. It’s a purely technical move.” The closing flourish that added $63 to the share price took just six minutes. “It left a sea of bodies, both longs and shorts, behind in its wake,” Dave Lutz, Managing Director at JonesTrading, said.
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SOUTH SUDAN: "ANYTHING THAT WAS BREATHING WAS KILLED" - WAR CRIMES IN LEER AND MAYENDIT, SOUTH SUDAN Amnesty Africa |
People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), specifically between President Salva Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, and former Vice President Riek Machar, an ethnic Nuer. Machar had served as the country’s vice president between 2005 and July 2013, when he was dismissed by Kiir. The violence, which broke out in the military barracks in the capital city, Juba, quickly escalated, with government forces deliberately killing Nuer civilians based on their ethnicity and perceived political affiliations. The SPLM/A fractured further, with some maintaining allegiance to the government and others defecting to support the armed opposition, led by former Vice President Machar, which came to be known as the SPLM/A-In Opposition (IO). Within a matter of days, the conflict spread to Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity States, with both the government and the opposition engaging in a tit-for-tat escalation in hostilities—the brunt of which was born by the civilian population.
Of the nearly 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) scattered across the country, around 200,000 are living in “Protection of Civilian” (POC) sites on the bases of the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).
Recent years have seen increasing intra-Nuer divisions caused, in part, by the fractionalization of the armed opposition, the SPLA-IO, into those loyal to former Vice President Machar and those loyal to current First Vice President Taban Deng Gai. Both men are Nuer who hail from Unity state: Deng Gai is from Guit county in northern Unity state, and Machar is from Leer county in southern Unity state. The SPLA-IO under Deng Gai and their allied militias have largely maintained allegiance to the government in Juba.
People who fled their home villages to take refuge on islands in the swamp said that government forces and allied youth militia even carried out attacks on these refuges using amphibious vehicles, and in some instances shelling. A young man who was hiding on the island of Rubchar, in Mayendit, said that government troops attacked the island late one night.
The use of sexual violence against women and girls during the government offensive appears to have been systematic. UNMISS documented the rape and gang rape of 120 women and girls, one as young as four years old.42 These acts, UNMISS said, were used “to demonstrate power over ... victims, impose extreme humiliation, destroy ... dignity and to fracture families and the community through the stigma and shame attached to survivors.”43 Medecins sans frontières (MSF) also reported that they treated 21 survivors of sexual violence in 48 hours in one village alone.
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Elite's relentless zero-sum scramble for power and profit has given rise to corruption and kleptocracy @dailymaverick Africa |
The elite’s relentless zero-sum scramble for power and profit has given rise to corruption and kleptocracy characterised by massive illicit financial flows that have impoverished the country
First, what resources would sustain the transition government? Funding the bloated government of 40-plus cabinet members and 550 legislators, together with members of devolved state parliaments and administrations, will depend on oil revenue and international support.
The finance ministry says renewed oil production should make up for the over $4-billion revenue loss during the civil war. But governance ineptitude has led to donor fatigue, making international financial support less likely.
For instance, former deputy army chief-turned-rebel commander General Thomas Cirilo Swaka’s recent visit to the US to meet the South Sudanese diaspora caused jitters back home. It raised questions about plans for a regime change engineered by the US government using the rebel leader.
Conclusions
Limit Short
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By 2050, for example, more than 40 percent of the extremely poor people in the world will live in just two countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria @gatesfoundation Africa |
Africa is a young continent Nearly 60 percent of Africans are under the age of 25 Compare that to 27 percent of Europeans The median age across Africa is 18. Compare that to 35 in North America (or 47 in Japan).
human-capital investments can do the same for the poorest countries in Africa. Across sub-Saharan Africa, these investments could increase the size of the economy by nearly 90 percent by 2050
One-third of African children are stunted, which means their brains and their bodies aren’t developing fully. But there are proven strategies for solving the stunting problem. In last year’s Goalkeepers report, we wrote about Peru, where government interventions helped reduce stunting by more than half in just eight years.
I think about the future of my continent in terms of 3 questions: Are Africans healthy? Do they have access to a good education? And do they have opportunities to apply their skills? http://gates.ly/2NT3zZQ
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Liberia loses $104 mln in central bank cash, bans 15 from foreign travel @ReutersAfrica Africa |
Fifteen Liberians, including the son of former president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, are banned from leaving the country while the government investigates the whereabouts of $104 million in missing cash intended for the central bank, the government said.
A series of shipments of notes ordered by Liberia’s central bank from printers overseas have disappeared since last year after passing through the country’s main ports, Liberia’s information minister Eugene Nagbe told local radio on Tuesday.
The missing amount is the equivalent of nearly 5 percent of the West African country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Charles Sirleaf, the son of Nobel Peace Prize winner Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, and former central bank governor, Milton Weeks, are among those barred from travel as part of the investigation, said a Ministry of Information statement released late on Tuesday.
“The government... takes the ongoing investigation seriously because it has national security implications,” it said.
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@Naspers' chief executive Bob van Dijk. "We're not going to suck any cash out of @MultiChoice." Africa |
This leaves Multichoice free to fend for itself in an increasingly competitive market where Netflix is already supplying thousands of viewers with original TV content and Hollywood hits such as “Stranger Things” and “House of Cards”.
“The intention is to basically have absolutely minimal debt going to Multichoice to provide them with flexibility to make any strategic move they want to make,” said Naspers’ chief executive Bob van Dijk. “We’re not going to suck any cash out of Multichoice.”
Although streaming is still rare on a continent hobbled by slow internet speeds, reaching fewer than 2 million of sub-Saharan Africa’s billion citizens, it is increasingly challenging more popular satellite-TV services.
Multichoice’s fledgling internet-streaming service, Showmax, is betting a blend of Hollywood blockbusters and local content such as “Real Househelps of Kawangware” and “The Bachelor South Africa” will set it apart from rivals. It launched Showmax in 2016.
Multichoice had 7.5 billion rand ($503 million) cash at the end of the latest financial disclosure period in March, generated largely from subscription fees of as much as 809 rand a month from some of its 13.5 million households across the continent.
“The listing of Multichoice Group will create a leading entertainment business on the JSE that is profitable and cash generative,” Patel said in e-mail reply to questions.
The listing of Multichoice is likely to fetch between 9 and 12 times its $627 million annual core earnings, or EBITDA, valuing it at least $5.6 billion
“We endorse this decision. Naspers recently raised 140 billion rand, twice the size of Multichoice, by selling 2 percent of Tencent and 33 billion rand from the sale of their Flipkart stake,” said Byron Lotter, a portfolio manager at Vestact, which owns shares in Naspers.
“Historically Naspers used the Multichoice cash cow to fund new acquisitions. They no longer need the cash from Multichoice.”
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There's Reason to Worry About Kenya Fiscal Position, @RencapMan Says @business Kenyan Economy |
Kenya’s budget deficit should be a worry for investors in East Africa’s biggest economy, according to Renaissance Capital’s chief economist, Charles Robertson.
The Treasury projects a funding gap of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this financial year, compared with 7.2 percent in the previous year. That still falls short of the 3 percent target the International Monetary Fund set for the state when it provided a precautionary arrangement two years ago.
“Kenya should be a country of concern for investors,” Robertson said at a conference in the capital, Nairobi. “So we need to see fiscal adjustment in Kenya as we have needed the same in Argentina.”
Kenya is not as dependent on hot money as Argentina, making it a safer investment destination than the south American economy, he said.
The government’s revenue projections are “too optimistic” and the budget deficit will likely be wider than estimated, according to RenCap’s economist for sub-Saharan Africa, Yvonne Mhango.
The state is reducing spending estimates this financial year by almost 2 percent after President Uhuru Kenyatta vowed austerity to improve the government’s fiscal position. While he intends to cut expenditure, he’s also promised 500,000 low-income housing units, universal healthcare, food security and to increase manufacturing’s contribution to 15 percent of GDP by 2022, when his second term ends.
“I would like to see Kenya borrow more to do a lot of investment to achieve manufacturing at 15 percent of GDP, but the world economy shows me they have to do a lot less of this, and raise taxes,” Robertson said.
RenCap said the Kenyan currency is overvalued and should be about 120 shillings to the dollar. It estimates the shilling will decline to 105 shillings by the end of 2018 from 101 shillings at present, Mhango said.
“We have seen the current account decline, which will help contain the FX reserves position and the currency,” she said.
While RenCap initially expected economic growth of 4.5 percent this year because of a cap on commercial interest rates, output has been more robust and it now estimates expansion of 5.4 percent, Mhango said. For about two years, Kenya has had a limit of 400 basis points above the prevailing central bank rate that lenders say has crimped credit, especially to risky borrowers.
While Kenya has come under IMF pressure to do away with the cap, the state wouldn’t want it gone because banks will resume private-sector lending, which would drive the government’s borrowing costs higher, Robertson said.
“With the budget deficit, we see a fiscal argument to retain the rate cap,” he said.
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