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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 26th of September 2018
 
Morning
Africa

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Africa


Leaving the best till last! Neumayer Station is experiencing the most
vivid aurora australis displays of the winter; the view from the
Ekstrom Ice Shelf #Antarctica latitude 70°38′South, pic Helene
Hoffmann @AWI_de @AWI_Media

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The RIPPLE token fell as much as 17 percent to 44 cents Tuesday after nearly doubling in value last week
Africa


Home Thoughts


I am reading some short stories by Karen Blixen based in Scandinavia
celebrating Youth. They are beautiful, the vistas so wide it hurts you
in the solar plexus.

read more


"I had a farm in Africa, at the foot of the Ngong Hills." - Isak Dinesen, Out of Africa
Africa


I had a farm in Africa at the foot of the Ngong Hills. The Equator
runs across these highlands, a hundred miles to the north, and the
farm lay at an altitude of over six thousand feet. In the day-time you
felt that you had got high up; near to the sun, but the early mornings
and evenings were limpid and restful, and the nights were cold.

read more






Bill Cosby's spokesperson likened Cosby's sentencing for rape to the persecution of Jesus Christ: "They persecuted Jesus and look what happened." @ajplus
Africa


Bill Cosby’s spokesperson says that both Cosby and Brett Kavanaugh are
victims of a Washington D.C. "sex war" and likened Cosby’s sentencing
for rape to the persecution of Jesus Christ: "They persecuted Jesus
and look what happened."

read more




Trump begins his UN speech by saying his administration has accomplished more than "almost any administration in the history of our country."
Law & Politics


Trump begins his UN speech by saying his administration has
accomplished more than "almost any administration in the history of
our country." There is some laughter in the hall. "So true," he says.
The laughter gets louder. "Didn't expect that reaction," Trump says.

read more





Remarks by HR/VP Mogherini following a Ministerial Meeting of E3/EU + 2 and Iran
Law & Politics


I would like to add a word on the Special Purpose Vehicle, as I
imagine this will raise questions from your side. The decision to
establish it has been taken, also following extensive exchanges we had
since the Joint Commission Ministerial Meeting on 6 July. Now another
meeting of technical experts from Member States will be convened to
take this work forward and operationalise the Special Purpose Vehicle
at the technical level.

EU Member States will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate
financial transactions with Iran and this will allow European
companies to continue trade with Iran, in accordance with European
Union law, and could be opened to other partners in the world. You
will get more technical information about that, as the technical work
continues in the coming days.

read more






This latest tariff round represents something much more dangerous and lasting: a true reset of economic and political relations between the US and China ht @LukeGromen @FinancialTimes H/T @jessefelder
Law & Politics


This latest tariff round represents something much more dangerous and
lasting: a true reset of economic and political relations between the
US and China, and the beginning of something that looks more like a
cold war than a trade war.

read more


US trade hawks seize their chance to reset China relations @financialtimes
Law & Politics


It would be easy to see the latest $200bn round of US tariffs against
China, set to go into effect on Monday, as just another provocative
shot fired off by an American president in need of overseas
distractions at a time when the legal noose seems to be tightening
around his own neck.
But that would be wrong. In fact, far from being an ill-advised and
hasty policy decision emanating solely from Donald Trump’s White
House, this latest tariff round represents something much more
dangerous and lasting: a true reset of economic and political
relations between the US and China, and the beginning of something
that looks more like a cold war than a trade war.
This reset is supported by factions stretching well beyond Mr Trump,
on both the left and the right. That is what makes it so serious. The
president is indeed single-mindedly obsessed with the US-China trade
deficit, but he’s also the sort of person who will cut a deal for
personal gain, and it is hard to imagine that the Chinese could not
come up with something that would make him flip to a more moderate
position.
Not so the economic hawks within the administration, like Mr Trump’s
trade adviser, Peter Navarro, and Robert Lighthizer, the US trade
representative, who are playing an entirely different game. They
believe it is in the long-term national interest for the US to
decouple economically from China.
They have different agendas, but coalesce around the idea that the US
and China are in a long-term strategic rivalry, and that, as a result,
US trade policy and national security policy should no longer be
separated.
That marks a fundamental shift for global business. The economic hawks
have little sympathy for multinational chief executives who complain
that the latest round of tariffs is broad and deep enough to create
real inflationary pressure or force them to raise prices. Indeed, they
see these companies as traitors who have naively sold out for
short-term gain in a country that does not share fundamental western
values, and will ultimately not allow them equal market access.
And in the current economic and political environment, they have taken
control of the narrative. Hawks can cite Chinese intellectual property
theft, human rights violations, and aggression in the South China Seas
as proof of their position.
“You hear a lot of them talk about China as a ‘revisionist’ power,
like the Soviet Union — a purveyor of a completely different system,”
says Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics, a
China-focused consultancy. That vision may be overblown, but it is an
easier sell than defending status quo economic globalisation to an
American public who are increasingly anxious about China or robots (or
Chinese-made robots) taking their jobs.
The hawks have also been quite clever so far about crafting tariffs
that will minimise the impact on consumer prices while also penalising
companies that have shifted the most sensitive supply chains to China.
Think of chipmaker Qualcomm (which has found itself on the wrong side
of nationalism in both countries) or tech group Cisco, which lobbied
unsuccessfully to have its routers and switches, which power smart
cities in China as well as the US and Europe, left off the latest
tariffs list.
A white paper recommending some US supply chain insourcing, prepared
by the Department of Defense and likely to be released next month by
the White House, may provide guidance on where the Trump
administration will take its nascent attempt at industry policy. But
it is clear that not all companies will suffer equally in a US-China
cold war.
Traditional consumer businesses — Starbucks, say, or Walmart — will be
able to maintain a Chinese market presence more easily than high-tech
companies trafficking in sensitive data, or any business working in
strategic areas such as mapping or autonomous vehicles. Apple,
Facebook, Microsoft, Google and any number of other US multinationals
doing business in China may have tough choices to make in the future
if the trade war escalates into a cold war in which they can no longer
turn a blind eye to the national concerns of the states where they
operate.
Business faces more existential challenges. What does it mean for a
company like, for example, Google to launch a censored search engine
in China, while its parent company, Alphabet, refuses to send its
chief executive, Larry Page, to testify in the Senate on Russian
meddling in US tech platforms? Can corporate leaders be above
politics? They used to like to think so. Today, that seems like
wishful thinking.

read more


09-JUL-2018 :: Tariff wars, who blinks first?
Law & Politics


James Dean was an iconic American actor, who tapped into the universal
yearning and angst of nearly every adolescent human being with a raw
connection that has surely not been surpassed since. In one of his
most consequential films, Rebel without a Cause, two players (read,
teenage boys) decide to settle a dispute (read, teenage girl) by way
of near-death experiences. Each speeds an automobile towards a cliff.
A simple rule governs the challenge: the first to jump out of his
automo- bile is the chicken and, by universally accepted social
convention, concedes the object in dispute. The second to jump is
victorious, and, depending on context, becomes gang leader, prom king,
etc.

read more



Law & Politics


The Syrian civil war long ago ceased to be a struggle fought out by
local participants. Syria has become an arena where foreign states
confront each other, fight proxy wars and put their strength and
influence to the test.The most important international outcome of war
so far is that it has enabled Russia to re-establish itself as a great
power. Moscow helped Assad secure his rule after the popular uprising
in 2011 and later ensured his ultimate victory by direct military
intervention in 2015. A senior diplomat from an Arab country recalls
that early on in the Syrian war, he asked a US general with a command
in the region what was the difference between the crisis in Syria and
the one that had just ended with the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in
Libya. The general responded with a single word: “Russia.”

The return of Russia as a great power was always inevitable but was
accelerated by successful opportunism and crass errors by rival
states. Assad in Syria was always stronger than he looked. Even at the
nadir of his fortunes in July 2011, the British embassy in Damascus
estimated that he had the backing of 30 to 40 per cent of the
population according to The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in
the New Middle East by Christopher Phillips, which should be essential
reading for anybody interested in Syria. Expert opinion failed to dent
the conviction among international statesmen that Assad was bound to
go. When the French ambassador Eric Chevallier expressed similar
doubts about the imminence of regime change he received a stern rebuke
from officials in Paris who told him: “Your information does not
interest us. Bashar al-Assad must fall and will fall.”

The accord means that Turkey will increase its military stake in
northern Syria, but it can only do so safely under license from
Moscow. The priority for Turkey is to prevent the creation of a
Kurdish statelet under US protection in Syria and for this it needs
Russian cooperation. It was the withdrawal of the Russian air umbrella
protecting the Kurdish enclave of Afrin earlier this year that enabled
the Turkish army to invade and take it over.

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NEW: Yale classmates say Brett Kavanaugh once wore a superhero cape, grabbed his crotch and sang "I'm a geek, I'm a geek, I'm a power tool.." @byaaroncdavis
Law & Politics


NEW: Yale classmates say Brett Kavanaugh untruthful about drinking,
say he was a “sloppy” drunk—once wore a superhero cape, grabbed his
crotch and sang “I’m a geek, I’m a geek, I’m a power tool..” Says one:
"You can’t lie your way onto the Supreme Court.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1764
Dollar Index 94.18
Japan Yen 112.83
Swiss Franc 0.9646
Pound 1.3175
Aussie 0.7260
India Rupee 72.725
South Korea Won 1117.74
Brazil Real 4.0765
Egypt Pound 17.92
South Africa Rand 14.3767

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Current Gold chart does lend to possible constructive interpretation, needs to remain above 1187 @PeterLBrandt 1200.00
Commodities


Charts are constantly morphing, offering new evidence. This is why I
advocate Bayesian probability, not fixed "one-and-done" probability.
Current Gold chart does lend to possible constructive interpretation,
needs to remain above 1187

read more










'Abiy Ahmed is our miracle': Ethiopia's democratic awakening @guardian
Africa


But it is also a time of deep anxiety. The unprecedented loosening of
state control has been accompanied by an upsurge in ethnic violence
and widespread lawlessness. Hate speech thrives on social media.
Groups with starkly contrasting visions for the country have clashed
on the streets of the capital. On 19 September the government began
its first clampdown, arresting thousands of people suspected of
orchestrating violence. “Abiymania”, as it has become known, may not
last forever.

In Addis Ababa the face of Abiy Ahmed is almost ubiquitous, emblazoned
on stickers, posters, T-shirts and books. Some of his most
enthusiastic supporters liken him to a prophet. “Without Abiy we would
be doing nothing,” says Asrat Abere, a taxi driver and father of two.
“If he had time he could change everything.”

“There’s an inclination in the Ethiopian population to have more faith
in charismatic leaders than in political parties or institutions,”
says Goitum Gebreluel, an Ethiopian researcher at Cambridge
University. “Abiy has been able to cultivate that cleverly.”

read more


.@amnesty condemns 'mass arbitrary arrests' in Ethiopia @AFP via @YahooNews
Africa


Addis Ababa (AFP) - Amnesty International condemned the recent arrests
of thousands of people in Ethiopia's capital, saying the detentions
"threaten a new era of human rights gains" under Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed.
The rights group was responding to a statement from Ethiopian
authorities that police had conducted a wave of arrests in the wake of
recent violence that killed dozens in the capital and its Burayu
suburb.
"While the Ethiopian authorities have in recent months made a
commendable attempt to empty the country's prisons of arbitrary
detainees, they must not fill them up again by arbitrarily arresting
and detaining more people without charge," said Amnesty's regional
director Joan Nyanyuki in a statement late Monday.
"The government must renew its commitment to a new era of respecting
and upholding human rights," Nyanyuki added.
The clashes in Addis Ababa and Burayu were between groups from the
largest ethnic group the Oromo, who inhabit the land around the
capital, and residents of the diverse city, including many ethnic
minorities.

read more


Shock new poll shows that @Julius_S_Malema is eating @CyrilRamaphosa's lunch. @SundayTimesZA
Africa


A new poll shows that the EFF is eating President Cyril Ramaphosa's lunch.

According to an Institute for Race Relations (IRR) survey, Julius
Malema's party has doubled its support to 13% while the ANC has
dropped from 62% to 52% — only just holding on to its majority.

The poll said party support countrywide is as follows:

• The EFF is polling at 13%
• The ANC is polling at 52%
• The DA is polling at 23%

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -4.41% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.3767 [sell ZAR]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Pleasing investors is getting expensive for IMF-backed Egypt @business

https://twitter.com/business/status/1044788883236540416

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9200

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -13.41% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

read more


Ghana Targets $10 Billion Century Bond Sale by End of Year @BBGAfrica [yeah right]
Africa


Ghana’s Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said the country is preparing
to sell $5 billion to $10 billion in century bonds by the end of the
year at a time when rising U.S. rates are making investors wary of
emerging-market debt.
In what will be the world’s biggest sovereign issuance of 100-year
securities and the first by an African country should the deal
proceed, Ghana is planning to raise the debt as the first tranche of a
$50 billion bond, Ofori-Atta said in an interview Tuesday in the
capital, Accra. The $50 billion will be raised “in bits” through a
shelf offering, which allows issuers to a register a security without
selling the entire issue at once, said Ofori-Atta.
The sale will help Ghana to pay off existing debt, build factories and
overcome an estimated shortfall of $7 billion in annual infrastructure
spending, said Ofori-Atta. More detail about the bond will be made
public when he presents the country’s budget for 2019 to lawmakers on
Nov. 15, said Ofori-Atta.
Ghana’s issuance plan comes at a time when emerging-market dollar-bond
sales are dwindling as rising U.S. rates dampen investor appetite for
high-yielding assets. Average yields on emerging-market dollar debt
have climbed almost 100 basis points since April amid a sell-off
sparked by crises in Argentina and Turkey, according to Bloomberg
indexes.
Only China, Argentina and Mexico have previously issued 100-year
dollar debt, of which Mexico’s $2.7 billion deal in October 2010 was
the biggest.
“It sounds optimistic,” Kieran Curtis, a money manager in London at
Aberdeen Standard Investments, which owns Ghanaian bonds, said by
phone.
“It’s difficult to believe there is $10 billion of demand out there.
This would be outside what you’d expect for their financing needs.”
Yields on Ghana’s 2049 dollar bonds rose 3 basis points to 8.63
percent at 6.37 p.m. in London on Tuesday, the most in a week.
An issuance by year-end will be Ghana’s second sale of Eurobonds in
2018 after raising $2 billion in 10- and 30-year securities in May.
Earlier this year, the country weighed selling so-called Panda bonds
in mainland China and Samurai notes in Japan before abandoning the
idea.
Ghana is in the final year of an almost $1 billion bailout program
with the International Monetary Fund that started in 2015 after the
value of the cedi collapsed and debt ballooned. Total public debt
measured 65.9 percent of gross domestic product at the end of July,
compared with 67.4 percent at the same time in 2017, according to the
central bank’s data.

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2-JAN-2018 :: I like what I am seeing in Angola
Africa


 like what I am seeing in Angola. I am keen on being long on Angolan
risk. The devil is in the detail of the execution, however. I would
probably look to be long Angola Eurobonds.

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Kenya Holds Key Rate at Three-Year Low as Inflation Seen Steady Bloomberg
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s central bank held its benchmark rate at a three-year low as
inflation is expected to remain in its target range.
The Monetary Policy Committee, which was fully constituted with nine
members for the first time in five years, kept the rate at 9 percent,
central bank Governor Patrick Njoroge said in a statement emailed
Tuesday from the capital, Nairobi. That was in line with all 11
projections in a Bloomberg survey.
“Overall inflation is expected to rise in the near-term, following the
implementation of value-added tax on petroleum products in September
2018 and its impact on other prices, as well as increases in
international oil prices,” Njoroge said. “However, it is expected to
remain within the target range due to lower food prices reflecting
favorable weather.”
The central bank of East Africa’s biggest economy unexpectedly cut the
rate in July, citing below-potential growth. While the MPC has said
there is room for a more accommodative stance, price pressures due to
the introduction of a tax on fuel and the decision by lawmakers to not
repeal a law capping commercial borrowing costs at 400 basis points
above the key rate is complicating the regulator’s policy-setting
ability.
The annual inflation rate fell to 4 percent in August after rising in
each of the three preceding months. The bank targets a range of 2.5
percent to 7.5 percent. Price growth may exceed the upper end of the
band as food and energy prices climb, said Yvonne Mhango, an economist
at Renaissance Capital.
“In retrospect, one of the reasons the central bank cut rates recently
a little against the grain was exactly because they could see the
inflationary bump coming and the room for maneuver closing,” Aly Khan
Satchu, the chief executive officer of Rich Management Ltd., said in
an emailed response to questions.
The central bank anticipates that the economy will expand 6.2 percent
in 2018, higher than the Treasury’s target of 6 percent and the
consensus expectation of 5.6 percent.

read more



Kenyan Stocks Are World's Worst Performers as Interest Cap Bites @business
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan stocks are being pummeled by a combination of market-unfriendly
policies and a strong dollar.

The country’s main equity index has fallen 14 percent this quarter,
the most among 95 global indexes tracked by Bloomberg. Stocks in East
Africa’s biggest economy are in a bear market after sinking 24 percent
from a record high in April.

They now trade at their biggest discount to frontier-market equities
in almost a year, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months.
Their forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to 9.4 from 13.7
since early April.

“We will have a dead fourth quarter in terms of credit expansion, and
that is not a great sign for the economy,” said Faith Mwangi, an
analyst in Nairobi at Exotix Partners LLP.

KPMG, a consulting firm, warned a that higher taxes on money transfers
introduced this year will also hinder attempts to boost financial
inclusion.

read more






 
 
N.S.E Today


Trump began his UN speech by saying his administration has
accomplished more than "almost any administration in the history of
our country."
There was some laughter in the hall.
"So true," he says. The laughter gets louder. "Didn't expect that
reaction," Trump says.
Poking the UN in the eye plays well for him at home.
The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy Federica Mogherini announced that Europe will
construct a Special Purpose Vehicle [SPV] ''a legal entity to
facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and this will
allow European companies to continue trade with Iran, in accordance
with European Union law''
Its indeed a clever Strategy but in my experience Europe tends to come
to heel and that Pompeo and Bolton are yanking that leash. Oil Prices
which surged to a 4 Year High Tuesday pulled back a little but are
headed higher.
@theresa_may says no deal is better than current EU offer @FT Video
[This could end very badly]
In an Interview with Bloomberg, Ghana's Finance Minister Ken
Ofori-Atta pronounced on the following
Ghana’s Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said the country is preparing
to sell $5 billion to $10 billion in century bonds by the end of the
year.  In what will be the world’s biggest sovereign issuance of
100-year securities and the first by an African country should the
deal proceed, Ghana is planning to raise the debt as the first tranche
of a $50 billion bond.
Only China, Argentina and Mexico have previously issued 100-year
dollar debt, of which Mexico’s $2.7 billion deal in October 2010 was
the biggest.
This FinMin is popping some quality ‘’Quaaludes’’
I wrote on the 17th of this month in my Article ''Bubbles are bursting
just about everywhere''
There are no more ‘’Quaaludes’’ and policy makers will no longer be
able to pop them. ‘’In prescribed doses, Quaaludes promotes
relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes
a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These properties
are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative
and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric
effect’’.
The Central Bank left rates unchanged
“In retrospect, one of the reasons the central bank cut rates recently
a little against the grain was exactly because they could see the
inflationary bump coming and the room for maneuver closing,” I said to
Bloomberg
Bloomberg carried a report captioned ''Kenyan Stocks Are World's Worst
Performers as Interest Cap Bites''
The country’s main equity index has fallen 14 percent this quarter,
the most among 95 global indexes tracked by Bloomberg.
Stocks in East Africa’s biggest economy are in a bear market after
sinking 24 percent from a record high in April.
''We will have a dead fourth quarter in terms of credit expansion, and
that is not a great sign for the economy,” said Faith Mwangi, an
analyst in Nairobi at Exotix Partners LLP.
The Nairobi All Share entered a bear market 3 trading sessions ago,
exited it 2 days ago and has held above a bear market yesterday and
today.
The NSE20 Index is firmly in a bear market.
The Nairobi All Share firmed +1.05 points to 150.10
The NSE 20 firmed +16.21 points to close at 2869.24
Equity turnover clocked 967m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 24.75 and traded 2.701m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank was the most actively traded share today closing unchanged
at 40.00 and trading 8.488m shares worth 339.539m. Equity is +5.66% on
a Total Return Basis, trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 8.00 and
accelerated H1 2018 EPS +17.408%.
KCB Group rallied +2.515% to close at 40.75 and traded 2.345m shares
worth 96.103m. KCB is +2.339% on a total Return Basis in 2018, trades
on a trailing PE of 6.337 and accelerated H1 2018 EPS +18.086%.
COOP Bank rallied +3.09% to close at 15.00 and traded 1.354m shares.
COOP Bank is -1.25% on a Total Return Basis in 2018, trades on a
trailing PE of 7.537 and improved H1 2018 EPS +7.96%.
I&M Holdings was high ticked by the daily maximum of 10% to close at
99.00 on the grand total of 100 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL
traded 1.568m shares worth 290.135m and edged +0.54% to close at
185.00. EABL reported a -26.00% slide in FY 2018 EPS and EABL is
-21.42% in 2018 on a Total Return Basis.

Bamburi Cement traded 500,000 shares all at 148.00 unchanged. Bamburi
Cement is -20.401% on a Total Return Basis [outperforming ARM and
Portland self evidently] but trades on a PE Ratio of 32.599 and
reported a -66.515% slump in H1 2018 EPS.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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