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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 12th of October 2018

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice

If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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17-SEP-2018 :: There are no more "Quaaludes" and policy makers will no longer be able to pop them

There are no more ‘’Quaaludes’’ and policy makers will no longer be
able to pop them. ‘’In prescribed doses, Quaaludes promotes
relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes
a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These properties
are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative
and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric

Home Thoughts

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The East African Journey (page 13) In the spring of 1331, Ibn Battuta traveled south along the East African coast from Aden to Mogadishu, Mombasa and Kilwa

He arrived at the island of Mombasa, which he described as "a large
island with two days journey by sea between it and the land of the
"Sawãhil". It has no mainland. Its trees are the banana, the lemon,
and the citron. They have fruit which they call the "jammun", which is
similar to the olive and its [jammun] stone is like its [olive] stone
except that it is extremely sweet."

There was no grain cultivated at Mombasa; all grain was imported from
the "Sawãhil" coast. Most of their diet consisted of bananas and fish.

The people of Mombasa were "Shãfi'i" Muslims, "a religious people,
trustworthy and righteous. Their mosques are made of wood, expertly
built. At every door of the mosques there are one or two wells. The
depth of the wells is a cubit or two." [COMMENT: What is the quality
of water taken from a depth of two cubits (one cubit == roughly 18
inches) in a city on an island in the ocean?]

Battuta goes on in a stream-of-consciousness to describe the wooden
device used to get water from the wells, the practice of feet-washing
prior to entering the mosque. Apparently, everyone goes barefoot.

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@realDonaldTrump has reportedly tried to fire John Kelly, but failed because the @WhiteHouse chief of staff "just ignores him" @Independent
Law & Politics

The president wants rid of the former Marine Corps general but
“doesn’t know who to call to fire him” as Mr Kelly himself usually
carries out his sackings, according to an administration staffer.

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Turks tell U.S. officials they have audio and video recordings that support conclusion Khashoggi was killed @washingtonpost
Law & Politics

The Turkish government has told U.S. officials that it has audio and
video recordings that prove Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi
was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul this month,
according to U.S. and Turkish officials.
The recordings show that a Saudi security team detained Khashoggi in
the consulate after he walked in Oct. 2 to obtain an official document
before his upcoming wedding, then killed him and dismembered his body,
the officials said.
The audio recording in particular provides some of the most persuasive
and gruesome evidence that the Saudi team is responsible for
Khashoggi’s death, the officials said.
“The voice recording from inside the embassy lays out what happened to
Jamal after he entered,” said one person with knowledge of the
recording who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to
discuss highly sensitive intelligence.
“You can hear his voice and the voices of men speaking Arabic,” this
person said. “You can hear how he was interrogated, tortured and then

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For President Trump, who has made Saudi Arabia the fulcrum of his Middle East policy, the possible murder of a Saudi journalist in Turkey is a looming diplomatic crisis. @nytimes
Law & Politics

For Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, it is a personal reckoning.
More than anyone in the Trump administration, Mr. Kushner has
cultivated Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman — whose
family may have played a role in the disappearance of the journalist,
Jamal Khashoggi — elevating the prince into a key ally in the Arab
world and the White House’s primary interlocutor to the kingdom.
Mr. Kushner championed Prince Mohammed, 33, when the prince was
jockeying to be his father’s heir; had dinner with him in Washington
and Riyadh, the Saudi capital; promoted a $110 billion weapons sale to
his military; and once even hoped that the future king would put a
Saudi stamp of approval on his Israeli-Palestinian peace plan.
While the fate of Mr. Khashoggi, a resident of Virginia and a
columnist for The Washington Post, remains unclear, allegations that
he was killed on the orders of the royal court have thrown Mr.
Kushner’s grand bet on Prince Mohammed into doubt.
American intelligence agencies have collected communications
intercepts of Saudi officials discussing a plan to lure Mr. Khashoggi
back to Saudi Arabia from his home in Virginia and then detain him,
according to a former senior American official.
The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss
confidential intelligence reports, said it was inconceivable that such
a plan could be carried out without the approval of the crown prince.
The American intercepts were first reported by The Washington Post
But if it becomes clear that the prince ordered the assassination of
Mr. Khashoggi or was connected to it in some way, it will provoke an
outcry on Capitol Hill; embarrass American executives, dozens of whom
are flocking to Riyadh for a conference next week where the crown
prince is scheduled to speak; and put Mr. Kushner, who was once
himself a newspaper publisher, in an extremely awkward position.
Mr. Trump signaled late Wednesday that he thought it was likely that
the Saudis did kill Mr. Khashoggi and said that he would be upset if
it was confirmed. “I would not be happy at all,” he said in an
interview with Fox News. “I guess you would have to say so far it’s
looking a little like that.”
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of Mr.
Trump’s closest allies in Congress, said that if the Saudis were
responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s death, there would be “hell to pay.”
“I’ve never been more disturbed than I am right now,” he said. “If
this man was murdered in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, that would
cross every line of normality in the international community.”
Saudi Arabia’s muscle will be on display next week, when American
technology and financial titans gather at the investor conference in
Riyadh that the crown prince will attend. Treasury Secretary Steven
Mnuchin will represent the Trump administration at the meeting, which
participants have called “Davos in the Desert” and is held at the same
Ritz-Carlton hotel where Prince Mohammed jailed dozens of wealthy
Saudis in what he said was an anticorruption campaign.

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Khashoggi said there were "only two ways to liberate the Arab world of its corrupt regimes: by infiltrating the political system through its institutions, or by violently overthrowing the depraved ruling cliques."
Law & Politics

Khashoggi said he had long shared bin Laden’s view that there were
“only two ways to liberate the Arab world of its corrupt regimes: by
infiltrating the political system through its institutions, or by
violently overthrowing the depraved ruling cliques.”

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Saudi Arabia: There Will Be Blood Friday, October 12, 2018
Law & Politics

The ambition of modernizing Saudi Arabia appears to be leading the
kingdom's leadership down a dark path

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13-NOV-2017 :: The existential paranoia in the head of 32-year-old wannabe King is evidenced
Law & Politics

 “How can I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival
of al-Mahdi al-Montazar?”

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If there's a model the Saudi leader is following, it's not Thatcher or even Mikhail Gorbachev. It's more a combination of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. @business
Law & Politics

Overpromising is an occupational hazard But MBS hasn’t merely
underdelivered, he’s also departed seriously from the script with the
Ritz-Carlton arrests, the Qatar sanctions, the activist clampdown, and
now the highly damaging speculation about Khashoggi.

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09-JUL-2018 :: Tariff wars, who blinks first?
International Trade

President Trump after bashing on Justin Trudeau of Canada and Mexico’s
Enrique Peña Nieto [now upended, of course] and then firing a few
broadsides at Europe, has now turned his attention to Xi Jinping and
thrown him the Keys challenging him to a “Chickie Run.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1591
Dollar Index 94.99
Japan Yen 112.33
Swiss Franc 0.9891
Pound 1.3242
Aussie 0.7122
India Rupee 73.825
South Korea Won 1131.16
Brazil Real 3.7831
Egypt Pound 17.9300
South Africa Rand 14.4558

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Trade tensions between the United States, other major advanced economies, and China could entail a cumulative loss of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa of up to 1.5 percent of GDP during 2018-21. @IMFNews #WEO.

Sub-Saharan African countries most affected by the trade war would be
the commodity exporters and those countries (commodity exporters and
importers alike) that are more integrated in global markets.

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Increased exposure to an unexpected tightening of global financial conditions

Tighter global financial conditions resulting from
faster-than-envisaged monetary policy normalization in advanced
economies, or a sudden shift in investors’ sentiment could constrain
financing and growth for many SSA countries.

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Medium-term growth of 4 percent is too low for sub-Saharan Africa. The region needs to raise growth to create the additional 20 million jobs per year @IMFNews #WEO

Medium-term growth of 4 percent is too low for sub-Saharan Africa. The
region needs to raise growth to create the additional 20 million jobs
per year needed to absorb new entrants to labor markets.   @IMFNews
#WEO http://bit.ly/2IPPKq3    https://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup

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Fitch Ratings cuts Zambia deeper into junk, citing a widening budget gap and a faster-than-expected rise in debt levels

The government is targeting cutting the fiscal deficit to 6.5 percent
in 2019 from 7.4 percent this year. That’s “optimistic,” according to
Fitch, which sees it reaching 6.9 percent. Zambia’s debt will hit 69
percent of gross domestic product by the end of this year, up from the
previous forecast of 64 percent, the rating company said. This figure
could grow if recent currency depreciation continues, it said.

The kwacha has fallen by almost 16 percent against the dollar since
the start of September, which makes paying external debt more costly,
while also driving up inflation. Still, the government plans on
funding the 2019 deficit with 25 billion kwacha ($2.1 billion) of new
foreign loans.

The rapid increase in external debt has put the country at high risk
of distress, according to the International Monetary Fund, and has
been the main reason Zambia has so far failed to secure a bailout from
the Washington-based lender. Foreign-exchange reserves are close to
the lowest since 2010.

“The loosening of the targets means that the government is actually
not applying austerity -- it’s an expansionary fiscal policy stance,”
Caesar Cheelo, senior research fellow at the Lusaka-based Zambia
Institute for Policy Analysis and Research, said by phone. “Many
people are wondering, to what extent is this sustainable? How does
this actually get corrected?”

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Zambia's President Edgar Lungu may have equipped his presidential jet with an anti-missile system, which fires lasers at incoming heat-seeking missiles @africa_conf

Zambia's President Edgar Lungu may have equipped his presidential jet
with an anti-missile system, which fires lasers at incoming
heat-seeking missiles. A defence expert described the installation of
such a system on a presidential jet as ‘insane’.
As the government goes on another shopping spree, international banks
are reassessing plans for fresh lending to Lusaka
Israel and Zambia are almost ready to sign a new US$400 million
package for high-tech aviation equipment to be funded with a loan from
Israel's Hapoalim Bank. The deal is believed to include a new
presidential jet. Russia is also set to deliver a Sukhoi SSJ regional
jet airliner with a luxury specification suitable for a head of state.

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One Domino that has suddenly tipped over is Zimbabwe.

Reuters reported that People again formed long queues to fill up their
cars in the capital, with others panic-buying basic goods like cooking
oil and sugar.
There are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to $200 million in
reserves, official data showed, a mis- match that creates a premium
for the U.S. dollar and fans the black market.

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many businesses have stopped accepting the local bond notes - known here as Zollars or Zim bollars - which black marketeers are now valuing at four, or even five, to the US dollar. BBC

KFC has closed its local outlets citing "these difficult times," while
supermarkets have been rationing some items, and mining companies and
other key exporters are complaining about a lack of access to foreign
exchange reserves.
"I'm very worried. It's going to be just like 2008. Or maybe worse,"
said Grace Chitambara, a nurse waiting in her car in a mile-long queue
for petrol in the capital, Harare.

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Burger King looks to expand in sub-Saharan Africa

Burger King is in talks to open restaurants in sub-Saharan African
countries including Nigeria, as the US fast-food group accelerates its
international expansion to better compete with rival McDonald’s.

Daniel Schwartz, chief executive of parent company Restaurant Brands
International, told the Financial Times that the world’s
second-biggest hamburger chain was “significantly under penetrated” in
the continent, where it had a “huge opportunity”.

Burger King is one of many global companies drawn to Africa’s
demographics. The UN predicts that the world’s 10 fastest-growing
cities between 2018 and 2035 will be in the continent. With a median
age of 19, Africa’s population is expected to double to more than 2bn
by 2050 and to double again by the end of the century.

Burger King, majority owned by the Brazilian private equity group 3G
via Toronto-based RBI, is adding about two or three restaurants per
day globally. Openings are expected to come in at about 1,000 this
year, up from little more than 600 in 2015.

Most of new foreign stores will be in Asia and Europe. The hamburger
chain has opened about 600 restaurants in Russia from a standing start
eight years ago, and is on track to open its 1,000th outlet in China
by the end of the year.

However, the Whopper maker’s global footprint of fewer than 17,000
restaurants — nearly all of them franchised — is less than half of
McDonald’s, which has more than 37,000 restaurants, of which more than
3,000 are operated by the company itself.

“We are so under penetrated around the world relative to our peers —
and ourselves in the US,” said Mr Schwartz, 38. “We’re just scratching
the surface.”

José Cil, president of Burger King, said fast-food restaurants “aren’t
really well penetrated yet” in sub-Saharan Africa. He added: “We think
Nigeria is an amazing opportunity, we think east Africa as well.”

Burger King has been moving into the region over the past 18 months,
striking a deal with Servair to expand in markets including Kenya and
Ivory Coast.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, was “one of the places I try to go
to as often as possible to meet investors and potential partners,”
said Mr Cil, adding that Burger King had “a lot of work to do” in
Nigeria “in terms of infrastructure and supply chain”.

“We want to do it right — and we want to do it in a big way,” he said.
“We want to scale quickly. So, we’re excited about the potential.”

Burger King’s interest in expanding in Africa’s most populous nation
comes as its economy is inching out of a recession brought on by the
oil price crash. Unemployment has soared to more than 18 per cent.

President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration has come under fire
recently for its treatment of South African telecoms company MTN, the
country’s largest mobile operator with more than 50m subscribers, and
among its biggest non-oil foreign investors.

In August, the central bank accused MTN of illegally repatriating
$8.1bn in dividends. A week later, the attorney-general’s office
slapped the company with a bill for $2bn in back taxes. Executives in
the commercial capital of Lagos have warmed that the moves will spook
foreign investors.

In spite of the challenges of doing business in the west African
country, Nigeria has moved up 24 positions on the World Bank’s ease of
doing business index, from 169 in 2016 to 145 in 2017.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -12.23% 2018

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.4558


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO


When #Heinz beats #Africa to the branding and packaging punch,
something is seriously wrong 🙁 @VictorOladokun


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -15.23% 2018


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +13.43% 2018


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Acacia Mining says employee in Tanzania charged with corruption Reuters

London-listed Acacia Mining said on Thursday an employee at its North
Mara mine in Tanzania was charged with corruption but plead not guilty
and has been granted bail.

The employee was “responsible for signing cheques for approved
payments made by NMGML at the time, including a cheque regarding the
agreed LTF process,” the miner said, referring to Land Task Force
(LTF) set up by the government and North Mara Gold Mine Limited

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world bank's human capital index 2018

152 nigeria
147 Angola
137 uganda
134 pakistan
126 south africa
116 ghana
115 india
106 bangladesh
98 morocco
94 kenya
52 maritius
1 singapore

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Kenya's Ability to Raise More From Taxes Likely Peaked, @WorldBank Says @business
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s ability to generate higher revenue by introducing new taxes
may have reached a peak, according to the World Bank.
Tax revenue as a ratio of gross domestic product fell to the lowest
level in more than a decade in the fiscal year through June 2018 and
the only way to turn this around is through reducing exemptions,
improving collection administration and expanding the tax base, the
Washington-based lender said.
“Given the continuous revenue decline at a time when nominal GDP is
growing, the ability to raise more revenue could have plateaued and
significant structural reforms may be needed to reverse this worrying
trend,’’ the lender said in its economic update on Kenya released
The government seeks to collect 1.69 trillion shillings ($16.8
billion) in the current fiscal year to help narrow the budget deficit
to 5.9 percent of GDP from 6.9 percent. To do this, the Treasury has
introduced measures including an 8 percent value-added tax on
petroleum products and doubled excise levies on mobile-money
“What is happening right now is that you are increasing taxes on an
already-compliant population,’’ Einstein Kihanda, chief executive
officer of Nairobi-based ICEA Lion Asset Management Ltd., said in an
interview. “You can only mine so much and at some point you will start
getting diminishing returns.’’
While the World Bank expects slower economic growth in the second
half, it raised Kenya’s 2018 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7
percent, citing rebounding agriculture and manufacturing, as well as a
robust services sector. The fourth quarter 2017 expansion will be hard
to replicate this year, it said.
The lender also forecasts growth at 5.8 percent in 2019 and to 6
percent in the following year as actual output catches up with
potential and private-sector demand recovers.
“Kenya is like a Ferrari that’s going at 60 kilometers per hour, but
is capable of doing 150 kilometers per hour, we need to do some
structural reforms to get there,” said Allen Dennis, a World Bank
senior economist.

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18-JUN-2018 :: Cut taxes and cast the tax net wider. @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy

This is now a zero sum game. In order to get the show back on the road
and to get back to faster GDP growth, because growth is a silver
bullet, we should be cutting taxes and casting the tax net wider.

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Liberty-Backed Kenyan Pay-TV Firm Is Considering a Sale
Kenyan Economy

Wananchi Group, an East African pay-TV and internet company, has hired
Lazard Ltd. to work on a potential sale as some of its investors look
for an exit, people familiar with the matter said.
Media giant Liberty Global Plc, telecommunications firm Altice Europe
NV as well as London-based Helios Investment Partners are keen to sell
their stakes in the Kenyan company, the people said, asking not to be
identified because the deliberations are private. A sale could value
the business at as much as $500 million including debt, they said.
Representatives for Wananchi, Lazard, Liberty, Altice and Helios
declined to comment.
Helios invested $40 million in the company in 2014 as part of a round
to raise money for regional expansion. Wananchi got $130 million from
investors including Altice, Liberty and Helios, the Nairobi-based
company said in a statement at the time.
Wananchi is targeting the growing middle class in Sub-Saharan Africa,
providing broadband services through fiber and satellite technology in
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi and Zambia. It also owns pay-TV
provider Zuku.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2018

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