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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 17th of October 2018
 
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The Hungry Stones And Other Stories by Rabindranath Tagore
Africa


Barich is a lovely place. The Susta "chatters over stony ways and
babbles on the pebbles," tripping, like a skilful dancing girl, in
through the woods below the lonely hills. A flight of 150 steps rises
from the river, and above that flight, on the river's brim and at the
foot of the hills, there stands a solitary marble palace. Around it
there is no habitation of man--the village and the cotton mart of
Barich being far off.

About 250 years ago the Emperor Mahmud Shah II. had built this lonely
palace for his pleasure and luxury. In his days jets of rose-water
spurted from its fountains, and on the cold marble floors of its
spray- cooled rooms young Persian damsels would sit, their hair
dishevelled before bathing, and, splashing their soft naked feet in
the clear water of the reservoirs, would sing, to the tune of the
guitar, the ghazals of their vineyards.

The fountains play no longer; the songs have ceased; no longer do
snow-white feet step gracefully on the snowy marble. It is but the
vast and solitary quarters of cess-collectors like us, men oppressed
with solitude and deprived of the society of women. Now, Karim Khan,
the old clerk of my office, warned me repeatedly not to take up my
abode there. "Pass the day there, if you like," said he, "but never
stay the night." I passed it off with a light laugh. The servants said
that they would work till dark and go away at night. I gave my ready
assent. The house had such a bad name that even thieves would not
venture near it after dark.

At first the solitude of the deserted palace weighed upon me like a
nightmare. I would stay out, and work hard as long as possible, then
return home at night jaded and tired, go to bed and fall asleep.
Before a week had passed, the place began to exert a weird fascination
upon me. It is difficult to describe or to induce people to believe;
but I felt as if the whole house was like a living organism slowly and
imperceptibly digesting me by the action of some stupefying gastric
juice.

Perhaps the process had begun as soon as I set my foot in the house,
but I distinctly remember the day on which I first was conscious of
it. It was the beginning of summer, and the market being dull I had no
work to do. A little before sunset I was sitting in an arm-chair near
the water's edge below the steps. The Susta had shrunk and sunk low; a
broad patch of sand on the other side glowed with the hues of evening;
on this side the pebbles at the bottom of the clear shallow waters
were glistening. There was not a breath of wind anywhere, and the
still air was laden with an oppressive scent from the spicy shrubs
growing on the hills close by.

As the sun sank behind the hill-tops a long dark curtain fell upon the
stage of day, and the intervening hills cut short the time in which
light and shade mingle at sunset. I thought of going out for a ride,
and was about to get up when I heard a footfall on the steps behind. I
looked back, but there was no one. As I sat down again, thinking it to
be an illusion, I heard many footfalls, as if a large number of
persons were rushing down the steps.

A strange thrill of delight, slightly tinged with fear, passed through
my frame, and though there was not a figure before my eyes, methought
I saw a bevy of joyous maidens coming down the steps to bathe in the
Susta in that summer evening. Not a sound was in the valley, in the
river, or in the palace, to break the silence, but I distinctly heard
the maidens' gay and mirthful laugh, like the gurgle of a spring
gushing forth in a hundred cascades, as they ran past me, in quick
playful pursuit of each other, towards the river, without noticing me
at all. As they were invisible to me, so I was, as it were, invisible
to them. The river was perfectly calm, but I felt that its still,
shallow, and clear waters.were stirred suddenly by the splash of many
an arm jingling with bracelets, that the girls laughed and dashed and
spattered water at one another, that the feet of the fair swimmers
tossed the tiny waves up in showers of pearl.

Like fragrance wafted away by the wind they were dispersed by a single
breath of the spring.

read more


When Einstein Met Tagore: A Remarkable Meeting of Minds on the Edge of Science and Spirituality @brainpickings
Africa


EINSTEIN: Do you believe in the Divine as isolated from the world?

TAGORE: Not isolated. The infinite personality of Man comprehends the
Universe. There cannot be anything that cannot be subsumed by the
human personality, and this proves that the Truth of the Universe is
human Truth.

read more













Law & Politics


''This guy is a wrecking ball. He had this guy murdered in a consulate
in Turkey and to expect me to ignore it, I feel used and abused,”
@LindseyGrahamSC said, adding that the crown prince is “toxic.”

read more


Jamal Khashoggi 'was butchered while STILL ALIVE and took seven minutes to die after being attacked on Saudi Consul General's study desk, horrific audio of his murder reveals' @MailOnline
Law & Politics


A source claimed to have heard audio recording of Khashoggi's dying moments
Source said that Khashoggi was dismembered while still alive on October 2
According to the source he can be heard screaming in the horrifying recording
Khashoggi was said to have fallen silent on the tape as he was given
an injection
People downstairs in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul reportedly heard screams
Turkey said Tuesday they found 'certain evidence' he was killed in the building
A Turkish official also claimed police believe Khashoggi was dismembered
Saudi consul flew out of Turkey hours before his residence was to be searched
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Saudi to talk with King and Crown Prince

A source has claimed Jamal Kashoggi was butchered alive in a brutal
seven-minute execution after reportedly hearing audio of the missing
journalist's horrifying last moments.
The anonymous source, who claimed to have heard a recording captured
on Kashoggi's Apple watch, told Middle East Eye he was killed after
entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2.
According to the source, the tape reveals that Khashoggi was dragged
from the Consul General’s office to a table next door in a study where
he was surgically dismembered.
Audio recording is said to have captured the missing journalist's
dying screams before he was 'injected with an unknown drug' and fell
silent.

read more




The choice of that moment is the greatest riddle of history - Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs.
Law & Politics


It is authority that provokes revolution.  is occurs when a feeling of
impunity takes root among the elite: We are allowed anything, we can
do anything. This is a delusion, but it rests on a certain rational
foundation. For a while it does indeed look as if they can do whatever
they want. Scandal after scandal and illegality after illegality go
unpunished.  The people remain silent... They are afraid and do not
yet feel their own strength. At the same time, they keep a detailed
account of the wrongs, which at one particular moment are to be added
up.  The choice of that moment is the greatest riddle of history -
Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs.

read more


13-NOV-2017 :: The paranoia in the palaces in Saudi Arabia is real and existential.
Law & Politics


And what is also clear is that Bibi Netanyahu, MBS [the crown prince
of Abu Dhabi], Jared Kushner and a Trump carte blanche have all
leveraged this existential paranoia

read more




China has fiercely defended an escalating crackdown in the far western province of Xinjiang as necessary for security, claiming inmates of "re-education camps" are happier following their imprisonment. @cnni
Law & Politics


"Survivors of the camps have described their experiences as a
deliberate attempt by Beijing to strangle Uyghur culture and stamp out
the Muslim faith," he said.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1550
Dollar Index 95.16
Japan Yen 112.26
Swiss Franc 0.9915
Pound 1.3166
Aussie 0.7135
India Rupee 73.435
South Korea Won 1125.21
Brazil Real 3.7253
Egypt Pound 17.9095
South Africa Rand 14.7152

read more











.@realDonaldTrump and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Legal Authorities, Physical Realities and October Surprises @ColumbiaSIPA @JasonBordoff
Commodities


INTRODUCTION

No U.S. president wants to see gasoline prices rise as they head into
an election. Rolling up to the 2018 midterms in November, which
already pose a threat to Republican control of Congress, that is
precisely what President Donald Trump is facing. A combination of
existing and potential oil supply problems are conspiring to undermine
the perception of strong economic performance touted by Trump as a
sign of the success of his administration. Should oil markets be on
the lookout for an October surprise from Washington aimed at easing
consumers’ pain at the pumps?

Potentially the most significant threat to supply has been US policy
itself as the Trump Administration reimposes sanctions against Iran.
Although it is not clear how much Iranian oil the market will lose,
the Administration has repeatedly signaled that it will require buyers
to zero out purchases of Iranian oil when sanctions take effect next
month. Combined with continued Venezuelan declines and chronic risk to
Libyan supply, a sharp reduction in Iranian oil production would
further tighten physical markets and risk a price spike.

While President Trump may berate OPEC nations for high gasoline
prices, there is little they can do to rein in price spikes caused by
Trump’s sanctions policy. Nearly every OPEC nation is producing all
the oil it can. Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter and holder of spare
capacity, is pumping at record highs,[3] as is giant non-OPEC producer
Russia. There is little buffer of spare capacity—oil production that
can be brought quickly to market and sustained—to offset further
disruptions. Some market analysts speculate, despite its claims to the
contrary, that Saudi Arabia may have far less spare capacity than it
claims, which exacerbates fears of market shortfalls and leads to
higher prices.[4]

If OPEC can’t ramp up supply, the Trump Administration has two tools
at its disposal to bring relief at the pump. First, it can offer
exceptions from the imposition of sanctions to countries that
significantly reduce their purchases of Iranian crude oil.[5] Under
the FY 2012 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), foreign
financial institutions are subject to sanctions if they process
transactions for Iranian crude unless the country housing the
financial institution reduced its purchases of Iranian crude oil to a
significant degree. Companies can also be subject to sanctions under
the terms of Executive Order 13662, terminated under the agreement but
which will be re-imposed by November 4.

The law gives the Executive Branch the authority to define significant
reduction. President Obama defined “significant reduction” as roughly
20 percent by volume in every 180-day evaluation period.  The Trump
Administration initially said it would not offer any exceptions and
require all buyers of Iran crude oil to bring imports to zero by
November, the end of the 180-day implementation period. More recently,
Administration officials have indicated they are actively considering
issuing significant reduction exceptions. Thus, there remains
considerable uncertainty about what the Administration’s policy will
be.[6]

The other tool the Administration has is the use of the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve. Congress created the SPR in the Energy Policy and
Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975, in the wake of the Arab Oil Embargo
as a way to insulate the United States from future petroleum supply
disruptions.

PRESIDENTIAL AUTHORITY TO TAP THE SPR

President Trump has broad authority and discretion to use the SPR, and
there are few limits on how large a release he could order. Like many
Cold War-era statutes relating to national security, the law that
governs the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) grants the President
broad authority predicated only on the President’s willingness to make
certain written findings.  Once the President has found that a “severe
energy supply interruption” exists or that a drawdown from the SPR is
necessary to fulfill the U.S. obligations as part of a collective
action led by the International Energy Agency (IEA), there are few
limits on what the President can do and little prospect that a court
could exercise jurisdiction to review the sufficiency of the
President’s finding or otherwise interfere.  The political assumption
underlying this statutory structure must have been that the President
would fear backlash – from Congress and the public – were he or she to
draw down the SPR based on findings that lacked an adequate basis.
While this soft constraint on the President’s ability to use the SPR
to achieve domestic political objectives held up remarkably well for
first few decades of the SPR’s existence, there is reason to believe
that it may not hold up much longer.

The SPR is designed to be drawn down at a maximum rate of 4.415
million bpd. However, a 2015 analysis of distribution constraints by
the Department of Energy revealed that up to 3.75 million bpd of
additional marine distribution capacity would be required, depending
on the disruption scenario, in order achieve that maximum rate.[9] A
March 2014 test sale from the SPR confirmed these findings. According
to a report by the Congressional Research Service, the test sale
revealed several operational challenges stemming from limited pipeline
capacity, crude oil terminal storage capacity, and marine terminal
distribution capacity.[10]

These distribution constraints are the result of the rapidly changing
U.S. oil production outlook. Historically, oil and refined petroleum
products flowed from south to north to inland refineries. Surging
shale production in the U.S. has resulted in changes in the geography
of U.S. crude oil supply and transportation, however. In response,
there have been pipeline additions and reversals, as well as sharp
increases in barge, rail, and truck transport of oil and refined
products. These changes in U.S. oil supply, demand and “midstream”
pipeline infrastructure have significantly impeded the ability of the
SPR to deliver incremental barrels of crude oil to refineries. In
order for SPR barrels sold to domestic refineries in an emergency to
increase the total global supply of crude oil, foreign oil shipments
that would have been processed by U.S. refineries must be freed up for
use elsewhere – and this is getting harder to do. Moving SPR oil to
refineries in the Midwest no longer frees up imported barrels because
non-Canadian, and Gulf Coast crude has been largely backed out of
inland refineries by the unconventional oil boom. That means that SPR
crude would need to be moved by ship to East and West Coast
refineries. Yet, as a result of the surge in U.S. oil supply, Gulf
Coast marine facilities are operating at high capacities. If those
dock facilities were used to load SPR crude in an emergency, the
result would thus be to crowd out commercial supplies that would have
otherwise been loaded, and therefore the SPR supplies would not be
incremental.[11]

While the law may give President Trump significant power to use the
U.S. reserves, ultimately, the physical limitations of the SPR’s
infrastructure may prove to be the ultimate check on this power.

read more


01-OCT-2018 :: Therefore, I venture, he will tempted to unload Supply out of the US Special Reserve and therefore Bulls need to be wary of a precipitous downside draft
Commodities


He of course is facing a problematic mid-term election and the last
thing he wants are angry consumers at the polling stations. Therefore,
I venture, he will tempted to unload Supply out of the US Special
Reserve and therefore Bulls need to be wary of a precipitous downside
draft on that announcement which might well wash a lot of People out.
at announcement will be the starting gun for folks who have the guts
to catch a falling knife because it will prove a momentary and
fleeting firesale.

read more




These 90 or so days represent the most consequential arrival of an African Politician on the African Stage since Mandela walked out of prison blinking in the sunlight
Africa


He is evidently a Virilian and Gladwellian Figure.

“To create one contagious movement, you often have to create many
small movements first.” “Look at the world around you. It may seem
like an immovable, implacable place. It is not, With the slightest
push—in just the right place—it can be tipped.”—Malcolm Gladwell .

read more


HE PM Abiy Ahmed has formed a new cabinet. He downsized the number of ministerial positions to 20. Women compose 50% of the new cabinet. @fitsumaregaa
Africa


HE PM Abiy Ahmed has formed a new cabinet. He downsized the number of
ministerial positions to 20. Women compose 50% of the new cabinet.
Women are assignedto to run key ministerial portfolios including
ministries of Peace, Trade and Industry, and Defense.

read more


Ethiopia's PM names Ahmed Shide as finance minister @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Tuesday named Ahmed Shide as
finance minister to replace Abraham Tekeste, the state broadcaster
said.
Shide was government spokesman before the appointment. Abiy, who took
office in April after several years of unrest forced his predecessor
to quit, moved to re-constitute his cabinet to make it more inclusive.
He also reduced cabinet posts to 20 from 28 by merging ministries like
that of trade and industry.
A new “ministry of peace” was also set up after a spate of ethnic
clashes in recent months. It will be headed by Muferiat Kemal, a
former speaker of parliament.
Dagmawit Moges, a former mayor of the capital was appointed defence
minister, the first female to occupy that position.

read more


Is Angola really open for business? @AfricanBizMag
Africa


The IMF attributed the change in Angola’s fortunes to policies
implemented by Lourenço that have reduced deficits being run by the
state and parastatals and encouraged inward investment. Aside from
convincing international oil giants to recommit to Africa’s second
largest producer, which will create a multiplier effect on other
sectors of the economy, Lourenço has attempted to directly attract
foreign investment into agriculture, industry and infrastructure.

In January, the kwanza was unpegged from the dollar because of a
foreign currency shortage. The resulting 10% depreciation was less
than the markets were originally expecting. However, the government
has backed a policy of steady further depreciation so as to not
aggravate inflation. This was followed by a law passed in April which
scrapped the minimum investment level of $230,000 and removed the
clause stating that 35% of this figure needed to come from Angolan
stakeholders, a situation that was received well by the markets.

“The steps that seem to be taken are mainly for foreign investment.
That is a good thing, but we need to see what concrete steps there are
for Angolans are. For example, can peasant farmers rely on roads to
the coast? One of the big problems with the interior is getting the
food to the coast just to sell it,” says Gastrow. Unfortunately,
foreign direct investment, which would bring some benefits, remains
limited in scope and is barely enough to change Angola’s economic
landscape. Yet, there might be hope for Angola with an IMF
restructuring. The fund’s advice, discipline and funding could have a
positive impact on the economy.

read more


Investors are welcome in Zambia- President Lungu
Africa



President Edgar Lungu has assured investors and the business community
that Zambia is always ready to receive investors from any part of the
world.
And the President Lungu has implored the business community,
diplomatic corps and all Zambians in general to ignore the heightened
campaign which has been calculated to undermine the economy.
President Lungu said his government’s resolve is to overcome the lies
that have been expressly designed to hurt the Zambian economy.
He stated that government’s management of the economy and public
finances is based on laid down systems and guided by sound
fundamentals.
“We shall see off all these lies and innuendos. Our management of the
economy and public finances is based on laid down systems and guided
by sound fundamentals. Let me take this opportunity to assure all
other investors that Zambia is open, safe and ready to receive any
investor from any part of the world,” the President emphasized.

read more


.@MoodysInvSvc's has rated South Africa at Baa3, one rung above junk status, with a stable outlook @mailandguardian
Africa


Moody’s indicated that South Africa’s ratings would be downgraded if
prospects to revive growth falter, if government cannot stabilise its
debt burden and contingent liabilities from SOEs.

“Any crystallisation of contingent liability from SOEs that would
raise the government debt burden and place it on a higher trajectory
would likely have negative rating implications,” the report read.

read more



Ghana Plans to Support Century Bond With Rising Oil Revenue @BBGAfrica
Africa


Ghanaian Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said the country will support
its proposed issuance of as much as $50 billion of century bonds with
rising oil revenue.

The West African nation will issue $3 billion to $7 billion of the
securities every year that will be sustained through income from its
stakes in offshore fields, which is forecast to double to $1 billion
over the next five years, Ofori-Atta told a conference Monday in the
capital, Accra. Plans to improve tax collection and better governance
of state expenditure are additional measures that will enable Ghana to
pay for the debt, he said.

“With that sort of support from oil and then measures being put in
place to enhance tax revenue, we think our budget will be in a
position to provide the needed comfort to investors,” said Ofori-Atta.

Last month, Ofori-Atta said the country is preparing to sell $5
billion to $10 billion of century bonds before the end of the year, at
a time when rising U.S. rates are making investors wary of
emerging-market debt. A sale will help Ghana to pay off existing debt,
build factories and overcome an estimated shortfall of $7 billion in
annual infrastructure spending, he said.

An issuance by year-end will be Ghana’s second sale of Eurobonds in
2018, after it raised $2 billion in 10- and 30-year securities in May.
Earlier this year, the country weighed selling so-called Panda bonds
in mainland China and Samurai notes in Japan before abandoning the
idea.

read more


17-SEP-2018 :: There are no more "Quaaludes" and policy makers will no longer be able to pop them
Africa


There are no more ‘’Quaaludes’’ and policy makers will no longer be
able to pop them. ‘’In prescribed doses, Quaaludes promotes
relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes
a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These properties
are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative
and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric
effect’’.

read more






Interesting day, this. NSE-20 index closed at 2749.34 points today [October 16]. @Ramah_Nyang
Kenyan Economy


Lowest on a YTD basis? Yes.
Lowest point over 12-months? Yes, that too.
Lowest point in last 5 years? Absolutely. It's shed over 44% since
October 2013.

Interesting times out here.

read more








 
 
N.S.E Today


Jamal Khashoggi ‘was butchered while STILL ALIVE and took seven
minutes to die after being attacked on Saudi Consul General’s study
desk, horrific audio of his murder reveals’ says the @MailOnline
Source said that Khashoggi was dismembered while still alive on October 2
Khashoggi was said to have fallen silent on the tape as he was given
an injection
Its an extraordinary situation and so far the only American Politician
who has called a Spade a Spade is Lindsey Graham.
On @foxandfriends, @LindseyGrahamSC describes Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman as "MBS figure is toxic. He can never be a world
leader...This guy's got to go''
The 33 year Old Crown Prince is no longer tenable.
Netflix was my second Conviction Trade of the year. On Tuesday 17th of
July 2018 -after @Netflix plunged 14% in after-hours trading, I issued
a Buy.
Yesterday Netflix jumped 17% in after hour trading following whopping
subscriber numbers. The streaming-TV giant added 6.96 million users in
the third quarter, topping the 5.09 million projection.
These Results surged US markets and that might well have spilled over
as far as Nairobi which has been getting hammered for a number of
weeks now.
Moody’s indicated that South Africa’s ratings would be downgraded if
prospects to revive growth falter, if government cannot stabilise its
debt burden and contingent liabilities from SOEs.
“Any crystallisation of contingent liability from SOEs that would
raise the government debt burden and place it on a higher trajectory
would likely have negative rating implications,” the report read.
Ghanaian Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said the country will support
its proposed issuance of as much as $50 billion of century bonds with
rising oil revenue.
The Minster is popping ‘’Quaaludes’’
‘’In prescribed doses, Quaaludes promotes relaxation, sleepiness and
sometimes a feeling of euphoria''
I wrote the following about PM Abiy Ahmed ''These 90 or so days
represent the most consequential arrival of an African Politician on
the African Stage since Mandela walked out of prison blinking in the
sunlight''
He is evidently a Virilian and Gladwellian Figure.
“To create one contagious movement, you often have to create many
small movements first.” “Look at the world around you. It may seem
like an immovable, implacable place. It is not, With the slightest
push—in just the right place—it can be tipped.”—Malcolm Gladwell .
PM Abiy Ahmed has formed a new cabinet. He downsized the number of
ministerial positions to 20. Women compose 50% of the new cabinet.
The All Share snapped its losing streak to edge +0.38 points higher to
close at 144.70
The NSE20 turned +5.57 points higher to close at 2754.91
The slide happened quickly and volumes were low so Sellers are all
looking for a bounce and therefore its difficult to call the bottom.
Its a debacle as it stands.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom followed on yesterdays bounce to firm a further +1.06% to
close at 23.75 and traded 4.369m shares worth 104.844m. Safaricom has
bounced +7.95% since closing at a 2018 Low of 22.00 at the end of last
week. Safaricom will report results in November and at these levels
Safaricom is a value proposition.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank eased -0.709% to close at a Fresh 2018 low of 35.00 but
interestingly was trading at session highs of 36.25 +2.84% at the
Finish Line. Equity Traded 2.868m shares. Equity trades on a Trailing
PE of 7. I liked what I saw particularly in the Regional subsidiaries
at the H1 mark and recommend investors pick up stock at these levels.
KCB Group turned 25cents higher to close at 36.00 and traded 1.006m
shares. KCB trades on a Trailing PE of 5.599 and booked an +18.086% H1
2018 Earnings acceleration.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen closed unchanged at 6.95 on 217,500 shares worth of business.
KenGen will release this month and the share price is some distance
about its 52 week Low which is a positive signal in a market where so
many stocks are at 52 week lows.
Kenya Power slipped 5 cents to close at 4.40 and traded 855,700
shares. KPLC trades on a PE of just above 1 which is typically a price
that signals a Company is in complete distress.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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