|Wednesday 24th of October 2018
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.
Alberto Giacometti Men's Heads (Tetes d'hommes), ca. 1959 @MuseoGuggenheim @Guggenheim
We thus have a first-hand account of how Giacometti discarded or
reduced his works to synthesize them in smaller forms. The artist
explained: “Working from life, I ended up creating tiny
three-centimeter sculptures. I did it despite myself. I couldn’t
understand it. I started big and ended minuscule. Only the minuscule
struck me as a resemblance [to the model]. I understood it later: a
person is not seen as a whole until one draws away and the person
On display in this gallery are various studies of heads drawn in ink
on paper in the early 1960s. These drawings allow us to appreciate
Giacometti’s practice in his obsessive reworking of the face, trying
incessantly to capture the gaze, the spark of life in the eyes of each
individual. For him, the gaze, and the way it can penetrate the
viewer’s space, is crucial.
First cut won't be the deepest - deeper wounds are yet to come in the killing of Khashoggi @georgegalloway @RT_com
Law & Politics
As Khashoggi's “disfigured face and body parts” are reportedly found
in the garden of the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, the party is over
for the Western collaborators with Arabian tyranny.
After Khashoggi himself, the main loser from the murder most foul in
Istanbul is US President Donald Trump – as I predicted here weeks ago.
His declaration that the Saudi cover story was “credible” as the rest
of the world laughed at the “Lady MacBeth” of it merely made him
ridiculous. The behavior of his own “crown prince” – his son-in-law
Jared Kushner – has been more venal than comic-opera.
As I predicted, despite the Clinton family's own exposure to Saudi
largesse, the Democrats and their vast media hinterland have adopted
the killing of Khashoggi as their new casus belli displacing their
running out of steam “Russiagate” narrative (in fact the people who
filled the American airwaves with Russophobic hatred for the last two
years are now throwing their hands up in horror at Trump – Putin's
puppet remember – declaring a new nuclear arms race, against Russia).
From Uber to Facebook from JP Morgan to Virgin scores of withdrawals
have hit the “Davos in the Desert” jamboree and the kingdom “is in
crisis” as the Saudi Energy minister just publicly conceded.
That much is self-evident and an easily predictable ending to the
short brute lethal tenure of the Saudi Caligula which has murdered
thousands in Yemen in Syria in Saudi Arabia itself and which is surely
close to its end.
In the West the scene is like watching cockroaches scattering when the
light comes up suddenly and unexpectedly. Nowhere is this a more ugly
sight than in the UK.
In the 1980s I was sent on a parliamentary mission to Saudi Arabia,
under the leadership of Tory grandee Sir Francis Pym later Lord Pym,
earlier the Foreign Secretary of Britain before that office became
cheapened by mediocrity and a distinct lack of class. There had been
some turbulence in British-Saudi relations which threatened to disturb
the vastly profitable and deeply corrupt Al Yamamah arms deal.
“Soft soap dear boy, soft soap,” Sir Francis told me was our purpose.
A liberal application of soft soap. “Can't apologize...mustn't
apologize,” he added (I told you it was an era of greater class) but
lay the soft soap on thick was our battle orders.
We met the then Saudi king and most of the important princes; Sir
Francis was a master at work. He never apologized but boy, did he lay
it on thick. It worked and the dirty business of milking the old fools
in power in Riyadh was resumed.
Of course, British profits were even then a mere fraction of the
American bounty a gap which has only grown larger over the next thirty
years. And different too, no longer just guns but butter, technology,
media, movies, leisure (who knew Disneyland was a Saudi-playpark) and
Literally thousands of Western media outfits and their hirelings have
been corrupted by Saudi gold. Think-Tanks, “Institutes” of all kinds
even Britain's natural history museum have been revealed to be on the
take from the House of Saud. It was the latter's bad luck that when
the music stopped with the murder of a Washington Post columnist and
the dismemberment of his body the very same night the Saudi Embassy
was holding a soiree in one of their august halls.
The irony of the Creationist Kingdom sipping mocktails in the house
that Charles Darwin built wasn't missed by many. Newspapers and
magazines which had grown fat on overt and covert Saudi sponsorship,
advertising revenues and sweetheart arrangements are now shocked!
Shocked! in the manner of the corrupt Vichy police chief on
“discovering” there was gambling going on at Humphrey Bogart's Rick's
Café in the movie “Casablanca”.
No-one has U-turned more sharply than the Saudi Crown Prince's chief
PR man in the West, Thomas Friedman of the New York Times.
Appearing with CNN's Christiane Amanpour Friedman seemed like a man on
the edge of a nervous breakdown. All those tens of thousands of words
wasted on a common criminal like Mohammed bin Salman. Never mind, it
was richly remunerative whilst it lasted, Tom!
As Oscar Wilde said on the Death Scene in Charles Dickens “Little
Nell” – “you'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.”
Most devastating though has been the corruption soon to be unmasked in
the political class itself.
When the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion earlier this year
to halt British arms sales to Saudi Arabia pending an inquiry into the
use of the weapons in the bloody war on Yemen, it could well have
passed. But for the betrayal by more than 100 Labour MPs on his own
side. Gay Labour MPs sided with those who throw gays off buildings.
Feminist Labour MPs sided with those who abjure even mediaeval
standards of women's rights. Democrats siding with the very desert of
liberty freedom and democracy. I was suspicious, even puzzled at the
scale of Saudi support within the Parliamentary Labour Party. Soon, I
think, everything will be a lot more clear.
This story will run and run.
13-NOV-2017 :: This is an unprecedented moment in the history of the Kingdom and the most perilous moment for the House of Saud that I can recall
Law & Politics
The then 30-year-old crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed bin Salman
MBS, who is expected to ascend to the throne as early as this week,
arrived on the scene and immediately launched an unwinnable war in
Yemen. President Assad, with his Russian, Iranian and Lebanese allies,
resisted the regime changers in Syria. IS, which was a Sunni and Saudi
blade, has been eviscerated. Iraq, which was once firmly in the Saudi
camp, is now aligned with Iran completely. Qatar is lost (see the
intercept article which refers to a plan headlined “Control the yield
curve, decide the future” a plan to construct the ‘’Big Short’’ on
Qatar - The crown prince of Abu Dhabi should have spoken to me because
I could have told them how to do it).
Saudi Arabia and its allies UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait are caught in an ever
tightening Shia pincer. The paranoia in the palaces in Saudi Arabia is
real and existential. And what is also clear is that Bibi Netanyahu,
MBS [the crown prince of Abu Dhabi], Jared Kushner and a Trump carte
blanche have all leveraged this existential paranoia to effect not a
state capture but a kingdom capture. The Guptas were a precursor for
this particular capture.
The existential paranoia in the head of 32-year-old wannabe King is
evidenced in this comment about Iran in May this year, “How can I
communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi
Last week after being coached into the early hours by Ivanka Trump’s
husband, Jared Kushner, MBS launched his night of the long knives,
which, according to the veteran Journalist Robert Fisk, and I quote:
‘’When Saad Hariri’s jet touched down at Riyadh on the evening of 3
November, the first thing he saw was a group of Saudi policemen
surrounding the plane. When they came aboard, they confiscated his
mobile phone and those of his bodyguards. Thus was Lebanon’s prime
minister silenced’’ Hours later, MBS’s newly minted Anti-Corruption
commission detained 11 House of Saud princes, four current ministers
and dozens of former princes/cabinet secretaries – all charged with
corruption. Bank accounts were frozen [We could witness a massive $1
trillion dollar disgorge right here], private jets grounded. The
high-profile Princely crew is jailed at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and
the gates are now shut, the phone line is perpetually busy and you
can’t book a room until Feb. 1. Fisk concludes ‘’Put bluntly, he is
clawing down all his rivals.’’
In all the history books I have read, its probably wisest to operate
on one front not two and certainly not three. The desperate impulse to
act is also up against a four- year deadline. The speed of decline in
FX reserves produces a 48 month shelf-life.
This is an unprecedented moment in the history of the Kingdom and the
most perilous moment for the House of Saud that I can recall. Taking
on Iran looks like will the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
08-OCT-2018 :: One Domino that has suddenly tipped over is Zimbabwe
Reuters reported that People again formed long queues to fill up their
cars in the capital, with others panic-buying basic goods like cooking
oil and sugar. There are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to
$200 million in reserves, official data showed, a mis- match that
creates a premium for the U.S. dollar and fans the black market. On
the black market, the premium for the U.S. dollar spiked to a new
record on Saturday, reaching 165 percent from 120 percent on Monday,
traders said that means buying $100 in cash via a bank transfer cost
$265, up from $220 earlier this week. The Government’s ‘’Voodoo
Economics’’ where it spent $1.3b pump-priming the economy ahead of the
election [money it did not have] was the straw that broke the camel’s
US sees promise in Zimbabwe economic moves France24
The top US diplomat for Africa on Tuesday voiced optimism over
economic reforms by the new government in Zimbabwe, which remains
under sanctions dating from Robert Mugabe's 37-year reign.
Tibor Nagy, the assistant secretary of state for African affairs, said
that Zimbabwe's level of education and infrastructure meant it stood
to enjoy "dramatic economic progress" if the right policies were put
"We are very much encouraged by some of the things they say; we are
now looking for some concrete examples of moving forward," Nagy said
of the Zimbabwean leadership.
"I can tell you that Zimbabwe is another country that the American
business community could be very excited by based on concrete
achievements," he told a press conference by telephone with African
.@IMFNews Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation and Establishes Performance Criteria for the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement with Kenya
On June 13, 2018 the Executive Board of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) concluded the 2018 Article IV consultation  and
established performance criteria for the second review under the
Stand-By Arrangement with Kenya.
Kenya has maintained strong growth in recent years and external
imbalances have narrowed, strengthening resilience to shocks. The
business environment continues to improve, supporting private
investment. However, a severe drought, an extended presidential
election, and weak bank lending—due in part to interest rate
controls—slowed growth in 2017. In addition, public debt has risen as
revenue shortfalls have not been matched by spending cuts. Moreover,
interest rate controls continue to hamper lending (especially to
small- and medium-size enterprises), growth, and monetary policy.
The Executive Board approved a six-month extension of Kenya’s SBA
until September 14, 2018 (its SCF expired on March 13, 2018).
Since the performance criteria (PCs) for the second review (end-June
2017) are now outdated, new PCs for end-June 2018, a monetary policy
consultation clause, and new structural benchmarks were established.
The authorities plan to continue treating the SBA as precautionary.
Kenya’s medium-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by
infrastructure investment and an improving business environment.
However, continued strong growth and macroeconomic stability hinge on
the implementation of reforms. In addition, headwinds from fiscal
consolidation and weak credit growth will weigh on economic activity
in the near term. Kenya also remains vulnerable to a deterioration of
security conditions, and to external shocks that could spur capital
outflows, such as a pullback on investors from emerging markets or
tightening global monetary conditions.
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal.
They commended the authorities for maintaining macroeconomic stability
and sustained economic growth in recent years, together with gains in
financial inclusion and poverty reduction. While domestic shocks
reduced the pace of expansion in 2017, the economy is recovering and
medium‑term growth prospects remain favorable. To safeguard the gains
achieved, Directors encouraged further reduction of fiscal deficits to
preserve debt sustainability; the repeal or significant modification
of interest rate controls; and measures to strengthen the financial
sector and business environment. The six‑month extension of the
Stand‑By Arrangement will give the authorities more time to undertake
these critical reforms.
Directors encouraged the authorities to take substantive steps to
reduce the fiscal deficit to address Kenya’s rising public debt. They
commended the authorities on their ambitious plans for fiscal
adjustment in 2017/18 and 2018/19 and agreed that the size of the
adjustment would help put the public debt ratio on a downward path.
Adjustment efforts should focus on both expenditures and revenues to
preserve space for planned growth‑enhancing public investment and key
social programs, including the authorities’ Big Four agenda. Directors
welcomed the authorities’ planned revenue measures while emphasizing
the need for additional steps to meet the deficit targets for both
2017/18 and 2018/19. They stressed the importance of realistic revenue
projections to increase fiscal transparency and to avoid ad hoc cuts
in public investment and other high‑priority expenditures.
Directors encouraged the authorities to repeal or significantly modify
interest rate controls, noting that the controls have slowed growth,
reduced access to finance, and hampered the effectiveness of monetary
policy. They emphasized that any modification should include the
removal of the link between the lending rate cap and the central bank
policy rate, the removal of a floor on deposit rates, and an increase
of the lending cap to a level that protects consumers from predatory
Directors saw merit in modernizing the monetary policy framework. They
recommended that, following the reform of interest rate controls, the
Central Bank of Kenya move to establish an interest rate corridor.
This would help align the policy rate with the interbank market rate,
thus improving the policy rate’s signaling role and strengthening the
effectiveness of monetary policy.
Directors commended the authorities for the progress made in
strengthening the banking supervision framework, and encouraged
continued efforts in this area. At the same time, they saw merit in
further measures to develop the bank resolution framework and
risk‑based AML/CFT supervisory tools.
Directors welcomed the improvements made in strengthening
competitiveness and the business environment in recent years and
encouraged the authorities to build on the progress made. In
particular, they emphasized the importance of implementing public
financial management reforms to strengthen governance and
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Kenya will
be held within 24 months, in accordance with the Executive Board
decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.
Public Announcement In relation to the proposed acquisition by RUBIS ENERGIE S.A.S of 100% of the remaining ordinary shares of KENOLKOBIL PLC
The price payable for each Offer Share is Kenya Shillings twenty three
(KES 23/=) (“Offer Price”).
The Offer Price represents:
a) a premium of 53.4% to the volume weighted average price (VWAP) at
which shares of KenolKobil traded on the Nairobi Securities Exchange
for the past
30 trading days up to 22 October 2018 (being two days before the date
of the Notice of Intention and one day prior to the Block Trade);
b) a premium of 50.5% to the daily average (ex-dividend) trading price
at which shares traded on 22 October 2018;
c) a Price to Accounting Book Net Asset Value per share multiple of
2.92 times based on the consolidated shareholders’ funds / net assets
shareholders that KenolKobil reported as at 30 June 2018 and of 3.18
times based on the consolidated shareholders’ funds / net assets
shareholders that KenolKobil reported as at 31 December 2017;
d) a Price to Earnings per Share multiple of 5.13 times based on the
(annualised) basic earnings per share that KenolKobil reported for the
six-month period ended 30 June 2018 and of 13.77 times based on the
basic earnings per share that KenolKobil reported for the financial
year ended 31 December 2017; and
e) an implied Total Enterprise Value (“TEV”) to Earnings Before
Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortisation (“EBITDA”) multiple of 7.09
based on the
unadjusted EBITDA extracted from the unaudited consolidated financial
statements that KenolKobil reported for the six-month period ended 30
June 2018 and of 8.94 times based on the unadjusted EBITDA extracted
from the audited consolidated financial statements that KenolKobil
reported for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 and, in both
cases, based on TEV computed on the basis of the Offer Price
multiplied by 1,550,761,200 shares and adding back borrowings and
deducting cash and cash equivalents as reported in KenolKobil’s
unaudited consolidated financial statements as at 30 June 2018.
@KenolKobil share price data
Par Value: 0.50/-
Closing Price: 15.30
Total Shares Issued: 1471761200.00
Market Capitalization: 22,517,946,360
Conclusions at H1 2018 Earnings
Muscular results. Interim Dividend hiked +20% sums up the muscle.
They were lapping a one off provision but once again one cannot argue
with these results which has now been a trend for a while.
Execution has really been immaculate
Conclusions at FY Earnings Release
They threw the Kitchen sink into these FY results.
These were in fact outstanding results.
Looking at the volume chart over the last few months and considering
the kitchen sink element of these results tells me we have a change of
ownership over the horizon.