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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 25th of October 2018
 
Morning,
Africa

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05-FEB-2018 :: [The End of] Halcyon Days. @TheStarKenya
Africa


Borrowing rates are climbing in the United Kingdom and in Europe.
Yardeni told Bloomberg that the bonds market have been rigged by
Central Banks for nearly 10 years and that this was now reversing in
the United States. Yardeni was referring to Quantitative Easing
Programs (where Central Banks print currency and buy their own
Country’s bonds in order to suppress interest rates and stimulate
their economies) which had injected lashings and lashings of liquidity
into the markets. Like a great Golden Flood of Liquidity QE is
believed to have inflated market valuations as far as Emerging,
Frontier, Sovereign Sub-Saharan Africa and even crypto currency
markets, which I will get to momentarily and which endured a Bloodbath
on Friday.

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UPDATE 1 - Saudi Arabia has "no intention" of 1973 oil embargo replay - TASS
Law & Politics


Saudi Arabia has no intention of unleashing a 1973-style oil embargo
on Western consumers and will isolate oil from politics, the Saudi
energy minister said on Monday amid a worsening crisis over the
killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
“There is no intention,” Khalid al-Falih told Russia’s TASS news
agency when asked whether there could be a repeat of the oil embargo.

Conclusions

Not going to happen.

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Former commander says US 'very likely' to be at war with China in 15 years @SkyNews
Law & Politics


The former commander of the US Army in Europe has warned it is "very
likely" his country will be at war with China in 15 years.
Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said European allies will have
to do more to protect themselves in the face of a resurgent Russia, as
the US will need to focus on defending its interests in the Pacific.
Lt Gen Hodges was speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum in Poland, a
two-day gathering of military leaders and political experts from
central Europe.
He said: "The United States needs a very strong European pillar.
Lieutenant General Ben Hodges spoke about an 'increasingly tense
relationship between the US and China'
"I think in 15 years - it's not inevitable - but it is a very strong
likelihood that we will be at war with China''
"The United States does not have the capacity to do everything it has
to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat."
Lt Gen Hodges was US Army commander in Europe from 2014 until 2017.
He now is a strategic expert with the Center for European Policy
Analysis, a Washington-based research institute.
Despite shifting geopolitical priorities, Lt Gen Hodges said the US
commitment to NATO remains "unshakeable".

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Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
Law & Politics


If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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China's hidden camps What's happened to the vanished Uighurs of Xinjiang? @BBCWorld
Law & Politics


China stands accused of locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims
without trial in its western region of Xinjiang.
The government denies the claims, saying people are willingly
attending special “vocational schools” which combat “terrorism and
religious extremism”.
Now a BBC investigation has found important new evidence of the reality.
China stands accused of locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims
without trial in its western region of Xinjiang.
The government denies the claims, saying people are willingly
attending special “vocational schools” which combat “terrorism and
religious extremism”.
Now a BBC investigation has found important new evidence of the reality.
The first reports that China was operating a system of internment
camps for Muslims in Xinjiang began to emerge last year.
The satellite photograph was discovered by researchers looking for
evidence of that system on the global mapping software, Google Earth.
It places the site just outside the small town of Dabancheng, about an
hour's drive from the provincial capital, Urumqi.
To try to avoid the suffocating police scrutiny that awaits every
visiting journalist, we land at Urumqi airport in the early hours of
the morning.
But by the time we arrive in Dabancheng we're being followed by at
least five cars, containing an assortment of uniformed and
plain-clothes police officers and government officials.
It's already clear that our plan to visit a dozen suspected camps over
the course of the next few days is not going to be easy.
As we drive up the wide approach road we know that sooner or later the
convoy behind is going to try to stop us.
While still a few hundred metres away, we see something unexpected.
The wide expanse of dusty ground, shown on the satellite image to the
east of the site, is empty no more.
In its place, a huge extension project is taking shape.

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02-DEC-2013 The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs
Law & Politics


"I see the pivot to Asia as the encirclement of China, then the
shrinking of its operating theatre and then lighting the tinderbox
that is the periphery and Xinjiang might well morph into China's
Afghanistan"

International Markets

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1399
Dollar Index 96.35
Japan Yen 112.33
Swiss Franc 0.9983
Pound 1.2897
Aussie 0.7058
India Rupee 73.325
South Korea Won 1138.07
Brazil Real 3.7326
Egypt Pound 17.9093
South Africa Rand 14.5448

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#Tesla shares jump >300 (not 400 as initially posted) in after-hours trading after company reports surprise profit in 'truly historic' quarter as Musk put it. @Schuldensuehner
World Currencies


#Tesla  shares jump >300 (not 400 as initially posted) in after-hours
trading after company reports surprise profit in 'truly historic'
quarter as Musk put it. Adjusted earnings: $2.90  per share vs -$0.15
exp. Revenue: $6.8bn vs $6.315bn expected.

Commodities

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Africa's new debt crisis @dwnews
Africa


Ghana is usually seen in a positive light abroad. It's associated with
a peaceful change of government, functioning democracy and a
government that wants to move away from development aid. Yet Ghana is
still relatively dependent on foreign countries because the seemingly
model country is in big trouble. At the end of 2017, national debt was
equivalent to 70 percent of the West African country's gross domestic
product. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers 40 percent
feasible for developing countries.
The IMF and the World Bank are particularly concerned that Ghana
represents a dangerous trend in Africa. "It's not looking so good at
the moment," Jürgen Zattler, executive director for Germany at the
World Bank, told DW. "After the debt relief and rather positive
economic developments over the last 15 years, debt has been rising
again."
Last year, Africa's foreign debt reached the highest level since 2001,
according to the British lobby group Jubilee Debt Campaign. Eighteen
countries are experiencing an acute debt crisis or are on the brink
thereof, according to the World Bank.
"I think the fall in commodity prices or the fluctuations in commodity
prices in the last two, three years has really affected the revenue
inflows of a number of African countries. This has led to huge budget
deficits, so governments have tried to plug the gaps. They've resorted
to borrowing, especially from commercial sectors," said Tirivangani
Mutazu, an analyst at the African Forum and Network on Debt and
Development (AFRODAD).
The other reason is that Africa urgently needs roads, railways or
ports. Without infrastructure, there would be no development and not
enough jobs for millions of young people. There is an infrastructure
development shortfall of $93 billion (€81 billion), according to the
South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). As a result,
many governments are going into debt. Kenya, for instance: Last year
the new rail link between the port of Mombasa and the capital,
Nairobi, became operational. The $4 billion project, Kenya's biggest
since independence, was financed through Chinese credit.
"Some countries saw positive development and could turn to the capital
markets. They took out credit, partly with very high interest rates,"
said Zattler.
China has also played a role: 14 percent of Africa's overall debt is
to Beijing, which has secured influence and access to Africa's natural
resources through easy credit. All this makes it harder to counter the
current crisis.
"Previously, it was only the so-called Paris Club creditors that
gathered at the table," said Zattler. The group negotiated relief for
states in debt with its members. "That is no longer the case because
neither the private creditors nor the new players such as China or
Saudi Arabia are sitting at that table."
"Quite a number of those measures we saw in the 1980s are still the
same and once these countries go to the IMF, they don't seem to escape
some of those conditionalities," he added.

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05-FEB-2018 :: [The End of] Halcyon Days. @TheStarKenya
Africa


From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successful.

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05-FEB-2018 :: Interestingly, JP Morgan's EMBI spread is down to 258 basis points, the tightest since mid-2014. How long this lasts is anybody's guess
Africa


Interestingly, JP Morgan’s EMBI spread is down to 258 basis points,
the tightest since mid-2014. How long this lasts is anybody’s guess.
Emerging and Frontier Markets Borrowers surely need to get their
skates on and pull the trigger real quick on any borrowing they had
been considering for this year.

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Airtel Africa raises $1.25 bln from @SoftBank , five other investors @Reuters
Africa


Airtel Africa Ltd, a subsidiary of India’s Bharti Airtel Ltd, said on
Wednesday it raised $1.25 billion from six global investors including
SoftBank Group Corp, Warburg Pincus LLC and Temasek Holdings (Private)
Ltd.
It also said it was looking to go public on an international stock exchange.
The fundraising, through a primary equity issuance, now values the
company at $4.4 billion and will be used to reduce existing debt of
about $5 billion and grow its Africa operations, Airtel Africa said.
The subsequent market debut will also be used to reduce debt further, it said.

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South Africa predicted wider budget deficits and cut growth forecasts in a bleak budget on Wednesday Reuters
Africa


At 0610 GMT, the yield on the rand-denominated benchmark 2026 bond was
up 16.5 basis points at 9.465 percent. That compares to a yield of
9.135 percent before Mboweni’s speech.
The rand was 0.5 percent weaker on the day at 14.6200 versus the dollar.
Mboweni, a former central banker, raised the deficit estimate for the
2018/19 fiscal year to 4 percent of gross domestic product while
halving the growth forecast for this year to 0.7 percent.

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Namibia says economy to shrink 0.2 percent this year @ReutersAfrica
Africa


 Namibia’s economy will contract 0.2 percent this year, down from a
forecast of 1 percent growth in July, due to a weak performance in the
manufacturing and construction sectors, Finance Minister Calle
Schlettwein said on Tuesday.

Kenya

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Assuming IMF is right, the shilling being overvalued by 17.5 percent means an extra 17.5 KES on exchange rate. Looks like CBK has an eye on the debt metrics @WehliyeMohamed/
Africa


Assuming IMF is right, the shilling being overvalued by 17.5 percent
means an extra 17.5 KES on exchange rate. Multiply that by $25bn of
foreign debt & National Debt goes up ~ 440bn in KES terms or an extra
6% on debt/gdp ratio.  Looks like CBK has an eye on the debt metrics.

Conclusions

This is the point. A weaker Shilling is the last thing we need.

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After considerable thought with regard to the Shilling I beg to differ with the August @IMFNews with respect to the Shilling
Africa


After considerable thought with regard to the Shilling I beg to differ
with the August @IMFNews with respect to the Shilling the @CBKKenya
has done an outstanding Job and why have a weaker currency we are a
net importer by a wide marginAly-Khan Satchu added,

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.@SafaricomPLC share price data
Africa


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           23.50
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        941,537,558,000
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 17.029

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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