|
Friday 26th of October 2018 |
Morning Africa |
Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
read more |
|
Dollar Hits Third Straight 2018 High as Divergence Re-Emerges @business Africa |
A relatively upbeat Mario Draghi did little to dent the dollar’s rip higher as investors re-focused on the divergent U.S. and euro-area economies. The greenback set a 2018 high for a third straight day even as the European Central Bank chief said risks to euro-area growth remain “broadly balanced,” as he kept rates at zero. His comments came after a slate of dismal European figures, including a Purchasing Managers’ Index report that showed euro-area growth slowed. That’s in contrast to the economic picture in America, according to Citigroup Inc., given the strength of U.S. leading indicators and the Federal Reserve’s commitment to hiking rates. While ECB officials were “as optimistic as they could be,” that wasn’t enough to crimp the greenback’s strength, said Calvin Tse, Citigroup’s North American head of G-10 FX strategy. “Investors have been wanting to buy the dollar on the back of data divergence,” Tse said. “The better investment opportunities -- high growth, high yields, a deep pool of liquid safe assets -- in most scenarios, you want to be buying the U.S. dollar.” The dollar rose against most of its Group-of-10 peers Friday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.1 percent to the strongest level since June 2017. The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.1366, not far above its year-to-date low. Investors will get their next update on the state of the U.S. economy with Friday’s third-quarter gross domestic product reading. Growth likely cooled to a 3.3 percent annual rate of expansion, according to a Bloomberg survey, from 4.2 percent in the prior period, which was the quickest since 2014.
|
read more |
|
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice Africa |
If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel California:
Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door I had to find the passage back To the place I was before “Relax,” said the night man, “We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! “ What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.
Home Thoughts
|
read more |
|
Saudi Arabia admits Khashoggi murder was 'premeditated' @Jerusalem_Post Law & Politics |
"Information from the Turkish side affirms that the suspects in Khashoggi's case premeditated their crime," a statement from the Saudi public prosecutor said. Saudi prosecutors are interrogating suspects on the basis of information provided by a joint Saudi-Turkish task force, the statement carried by the Saudi state news agency added. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke to Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the two discussed the steps needed to bring to light all aspects of the killing, Saudi and Turkish media said on Wednesday. CIA director Gina Haspel heard an audio recording of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi during her visit to Turkey this week, two sources told Reuters on Thursday.
|
read more |
|
India's plans on archipelago in Mauritius cause unease Financial Times Law & Politics |
India will extend a runway and build port facilities on the Mauritian archipelago of Agaléga in what security experts say is a significant boost for New Delhi in its tussle with China for military influence in the Indian Ocean. Agaléga consists of two sparsely populated islands about 600 miles north of Mauritius, a beach holiday destination that also boasts a huge exclusive economic zone of 2.3m sq km, roughly the size of India’s. The exact nature of construction is shrouded in secrecy. However, Abhijit Singh, a former Indian naval officer and head of the Maritime Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi, said the plan was to double the length of the runway to 3,000m and build a jetty as well as a transponder system to identify ships as friend or foe. The runway extension would allow both Mauritius and India to land bigger aircraft, which would give Delhi “better maritime awareness” in that part of the Indian Ocean, said Mr Singh. In written answers to questions from the Financial Times, Pravind Jugnauth, Mauritian prime minister, confirmed that “India would be allowed to utilise the facilities in Agaléga subject to prior notification from the competent authorities of Mauritius”. Afcons, an Indian company, has won the MRs3bn ($87m) contract for the works that would be “fully funded by the government of India on a grant basis” and include “a jetty and an airstrip with associated facilities”, said Mr Jugnauth. “This project is meant to improve the connectivity with mainland Mauritius and also support economic development of Agaléga to the benefit of the people,” he added. The planned construction has however provoked opposition among many of the roughly 300 Agalégans, some of whom fear the islands could be ceded to India. In 1965, before Mauritian independence from the UK, London split another archipelago, the Chagos islands, from Mauritius, forcibly relocating the inhabitants and allowing the US to build a military base on Diego Garcia. Many Agalégans fear they could suffer a similar fate. “I and all the people of Agaléga are worried about this project because the Mauritian government is hiding many things,” said Arnaud Poulay, an Agaléga resident contacted by phone. “We are against a military base on Agaléga,” he said. “I am very frightened to be from Agaléga right now.” José Moirt, a lawyer and rights activist, said Agaléga residents could be expelled to make way for a base. “There is clearly a policy in place for them to leave the island,” he said. Mr Jugnauth denied any such threat, saying: “Not only will the people of Agaléga be able to continue living on the island, Mauritian sovereignty will not be affected.” Brahma Chellaney, an Indian expert on security issues, said using Agaléga as a “logistics hub” could help Delhi “sustain naval operations in the south-west Indian Ocean”. He described China as “an outside power” seeking a naval presence in “India’s maritime backyard” in what he said was a provocation to India and others. The US, France and Britain, he said, were also “getting anxious about what China is up to”, including its recent construction of a military base in Djibouti on the Red Sea as well as ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. When Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, visited Mauritius in 2015, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to “improve sea and air transport facilities” on Agaléga, including the provision of state of the art telecommunications equipment. This May, Fazila Jeewa-Daureeawoo, Mauritian deputy prime minister, gave a written response to the country’s national assembly in which she said the agreement between India and Mauritius was “subject to confidentiality and cannot be disclosed in part or in full”. Mauritius, which Mr Modi has referred to as “little India”, has long had close security ties with Delhi. In the 1980s, India helped it establish a coast guard, supplying both ships and personnel. Two-thirds of Mauritius’ 1.4m people are of Indian descent, the majority brought in by Britain as indentured labourers in the 19th century to work on sugar plantations. India and China are involved in a tussle over the Maldives, a chain of 26 atolls in the Indian Ocean where voters last month ousted President Abdulla Yameen, who had drifted away from Delhi’s influence and decisively closer to Beijing.
|
read more |
|
06-AUG-2018 :: The Indian Ocean Economy and a Port Race. @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains ''The precocity of the Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange is one of the glaring facts of history'', made possible by the ''reversible escalator'' of the monsoons. The Indian Ocean Economy preceded the Atlantic Ocean Economy, where the Europeans only learnt how to ''crack the code'' of the Atlantic winds [and a new 'Western' culture arose on both sides of the ocean] long after the Indian Ocean.
As we scan the Blue Economy it is worth appreciating that Maritime shipping is the lifeblood of Africa, with over 90% of the continent’s imports and exports transported by sea. Today from Massawa, Eritrea [admittedly on the Red Sea] to Djibouti, from Berbera to Mogadishu, from Lamu to Mombasa to Tanga to Bagamoyo to Dar Es Salaam, through Beira and Maputo all the way to Durban and all points in between we are witnessing a Port race of sorts as everyone seeks to get a piece of the Indian Ocean Port action. China [The BRI initiative], the Gulf Countries [who now appear to see the Horn of Africa as their hinterland], Japan and India [to a lesser degree] are all jostling for optimal ''geo-economic'' positioning.
Overlay the Geopolitics and its worth noting that the Geopolitics has become much more fluid. Fluidity has been engendered by the spectacular arrival of Prime Minister Abiy in Ethiopia [which is land-locked, of course but a key Future Taker of Port facilities] who has made peace with President Afawerki's Eritrea and is surely set to undercut Djibouti and even LAPPSET, both Projects which seem to me to have been predicated to some degree on a permanent Freeze between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Investments in Ports have a long lead time and I am not certain that those same investments are able to re-calibrate at the speed with which the Geopolitics is moving. The Big Risk is that some these Port investments will be ''Hambanota''-ed.
Bloomberg reported that Hambantota Port has 'become a cautionary tale for Xi’s Belt and Road aspirations. The idea was to take an inconsequential harbor visited by fewer than one ship a month on average and turn it into a modern, bustling seaport adorning a southern Belt and Road maritime route. It hasn’t turned out so well. Hambantota (population at the time 11,200) got a new port. The port at Hambantota, was partly funded during the Rajapaksa administration by a loan from the Export-Import Bank of China. By the time Rajapaksa was voted out of office in 2015, more than 90 percent of Sri Lanka’s government revenue was going toward servicing debt. Last year, with Xi’s Belt and Road plan in full flow, a new Sri Lankan government moved to ease the debt. In return for $1.1 billion, it basically handed the seaport over to China.
“All these huge projects are a waste,” says Sisira Kumara Wahalathanthri, a local politician who opposes the current Sri Lanka government. “No ships are coming to the port. No flights are coming to the airport.”
I am bullish on the Blue Economy and in particular the Indian Ocean Economy which is set to relive its glory days. Unlike the marvellous song ''Everyones a Winner'' by Hot Chocolate, but There will be Winners and Losers. Everyone is drinking the Indian Ocean ''Kool-Aid'' right now.
|
read more |
|
August 19 2013 I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days Law & Politics |
Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why ‘The precocity of the Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange is one of the glaring facts of history’, made possible by the ‘reversible escalator’ of the monsoon.’ I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days. China’s dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US’ interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize in the c21st.
|
read more |
|
Is Africa being auctioned to China? @AfricanLiberty_ @nathaniel_luz Law & Politics |
“Africa would be free again, it would gain its place of pride and independence from being a pawn on the chess board of world politics and global dominance”.
As what can be referred to as “the rush for African markets” unfolds, it would only be essential to remind ourselves that Africa’s historical subjection to foreign political dominance and economic subservience is a consequence of our leaders indiscretion and shortsightedness to trade Africa away on the altar of the so-called foreign aids and bilateral relations. And it is quite saddening that this has been a prevalent narrative in most of Africa nations, even as we begin to experience what can be called the “Chinese Power Play” in Africa.
Africa has to learn that this “carrot and stick diplomacy” employed by foreign aids donors would only make us weaker and susceptible to abuse and misuse in the hands of her “savior nations”. There is no better way to become stronger than to maintain the discipline of self-reliance and limited aid seeking.
Africa needs no aid of any kind, especially from a country whose altruistic motive is questionable. Africa needs a freer economy, dependent on its available resources and intelligently managed by its own people.
Communist China can never be the solution to Africa’s aspiration to attain a state economic prosperity. As a matter of fact, it is embarrassing for just a country to establish foreign ties with a whole continent and more disgraceful for a country to give aids to a whole continent, the underlying perception of such event is a caricature of China-Africa neo-imperialism.
Mother Africa mourns for her children’s auctioned future. Its leaders run in pants and ties to the Chinese feasts of modern slavery. Only fools borrow to pay a debt.
No amount of favour or gift is enough to buy Africa’s future. But, our leaders are selling our present and future for a piece of cake that we cannot have back. What is left is to redeem the “auctioned future” from the hands of the auctioneer? Heavily indebted Africa has given its natural endowments, such as oil, minerals and land as collaterals for “loan traps”. But we know that Africa’s future is not in its natural endowments but in the hand of its children – the Cheetah generation.
This generation would redeem the black pride and turn the game around. Africa would rise again to take its pride of place. We need trade that will benefit our people, not foreign aids that will keep us in eternal debt.
|
read more |
|
Iran is new transit point for Somali charcoal in illicit trade taxed by militants: U.N. report Law & Politics |
Criminal networks are using Iran as a transit point for illicit Somali charcoal exports that earn Islamist militants al Shabaab millions of dollars annually in tax, U.N. sanctions monitors said in a report seen by Reuters.
In the unpublished annual report to the U.N. Security Council, the monitors add that domestic revenue generation by al Qaeda-affiliated al Shabaab "is more geographically diversified and systematic" than that of Somalia's federal government.
The report says that since March the main destination for shipments - using fake country of origin certificates from Comoros, Ivory Coast and Ghana - has been ports in Iran, where the charcoal is packaged into white bags labeled "Product of Iran".
"The bags were then reloaded onto smaller, Iran-flagged dhows (boats), and exported to Port Al Hamriya, Dubai, UAE, using certificates of origin falsely indicating the 'country of manufacture' of the charcoal as Iran," the monitors wrote.
|
read more |
|
Zimbabwe lifts import ban after cash crunch prompts panic buying @ReutersAfrica Africa |
Zimbabwe lifted a ban on the import of basic goods and foodstuffs on Tuesday after shelves were emptied in recent weeks by consumers panicking over a deepening currency crisis. “Cabinet noted with concern that the basic commodities continued to be in short supply,” Information Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said in a statement. “As a way forward, Cabinet resolved ... to allow both companies and individuals with offshore funds and free funds to import specified basic commodities currently in short supply, pending the return to normalcy.”
|
read more |
|
"The initial, knee-jerk reaction of the market to the budget was understandably negative" and investors started to price in less benign ratings reviews. - @raziakkhan via @Moneyweb Africa |
Razia Khan, chief Africa economist at Standard Chartered: “The initial, knee-jerk reaction of the market to the budget was understandably negative” and investors started to price in less benign ratings reviews. Still, “we believe that the tax-buoyancy assumptions in the medium term are deliberately conservative” “Even the revenue ‘miss’ in the current year is arguably due more to VAT rebates — a good thing, which ultimately strengthens tax compliance — rather than just the growth slowdown.” “Although the higher debt path outlined may trigger some concern, this is no justification for a downgrade in itself” from Moody’s.
Hans Gustafson, strategist at Swedbank It will be a “very challenging” for South Africa with “a higher borrowing requirement in an environment with tight US liquidity and weaker growth globally.” “The rand needs to incorporate a higher risk premium.”
Mehul Daya, analyst at Nedbank: It’s a “double whammy” for the rand and local-currency bonds as the budget was disappointing and a weaker euro is strengthening the dollar. This means South African assets face internal as well as external headwinds.
Kevin Daly, money manager with Aberdeen Standard Investments: South Africa’s budget was “somewhat of a disappointment” given that the deficit target for 2018-19 was increased to 4% from around 3.5%. “But we don’t think this is enough to prompt action by Moody’s to change the outlook to negative.”
Marek Drimal, analyst at Societe Generale: “The headline figures are discouraging, but they will not necessarily lead to a Moody’s downgrade to non-investment grade” “That being said, South Africa is facing a prolonged period of weak growth, elevated inflation, sizeable current-account deficits, and longer-term risks of a downgrade.” Reserve Bank should raise rates in November. Rand will probably fall to 16 per dollar by the end of the year and 17 by the end of September 2019. The land-reform debate will “periodically stress financial markets”
|
read more |
|
.@KenGenKenya reported FY 2018 PBT +2.487% share price data here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 2.50/- Closing Price: 7.35 Total Shares Issued: 6243873667.00 Market Capitalization: 45,892,471,452 EPS: 1.20 PE: 6.125
KenGen PLC FY 2018 Results through 30th June 2018 vs. 30th June 2017 FY Electricity revenue 29.286b vs. 29.007b +0.962% FY Steam revenue 6.222b vs. 5.189b +19.907% FY Fuel charge 9.623b vs. 9.069b +6.109% FY Revenue 45.290b vs. 43.432b +4.278% FY Reimbursable expenses (Fuel and water costs) [9.406b] vs. [8.979b] +4.756% FY Revenue less reimbursable expenses 35.884b vs. 34.453b +4.153% FY Other income 275m vs. 553m -50.271% FY Depreciation and amortization [10.148b] vs. [9.244b] +9.779% FY Expenses [9.970b] vs. [9.764b] +2.110% FY Steam costs [3.549b] vs. [2.796b] +26.931% FY Operating profit 11.442b vs. 13.545b -15.526% FY Finance income 3.341b vs. 1.333b +150.638% FY PBT 11.746b vs. 11.461b 2.487% FY Income tax expense [3.855b] vs. [2.455b] +57.026% FY PAT 7.891b vs. 9.006b -12.381% Basic and diluted EPS 1.20 vs. 1.37 -12.409% Dividend per share 0.40 vs. – Total Assets 379.353b vs. 376.730b +0.696% Total equity 190.104b vs. 182.836b +3.975%
|
read more |
|
KenGen Financial highlights In a nutshell. #KenGenResults2018 Kenyan Economy |
Conclusions
A Year on Year Revenue Gain of 4.277% in what was a period that included not one Election but 2 and a drought is singularly a positive outcome. Finance Income +150.63% - They are managing their balance sheet more effectively. Energy Sales +6.00% to 7,989 Gwh - What was interesting here is that with regional Interconnections and with a possible switch from a diesel powered SGR to an electric one - The energy curve might will steepen and accelerate. By Ending the dividend drought - KenGen is sending a positive Signal and its loud and clear. Rebecca spoke of a 33% Dividend Pay Out Strategy. a Trailing PE of 6.125 leaves plenty of scope to the upside for the share price.
|
read more |
|
|
|
|