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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 31st of October 2018

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17-SEP-2018 :: The Dollar is seriously weaponised.

The Dollar has suddenly metasized into an AK47. The worry is what
happens if it metasizes even further? The Dollar is seriously

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Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice

If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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What will the end of the world look like? Will it be nuclear weapons or fast food that kills us? @Independent
Law & Politics

Is everything getting better or is it really getting worse? Can it be
both? Andy Martin talks to Martin Rees, the Astronomer Royal, about
the shape of the future: what will it look like – and will there even
be one?
Not with a bang but a whimper. TS Eliot’s bleak prediction of the way
the world will end. John Cooper Clark cheekily tweaked it: Not with a
bang but a Wimpy. Or more likely KFC or Burger King. We are capable of
eating our way into extinction. If not through outright obesity then
on account of the sheer mass of cows. Bovine emissions now outstrip
cars, ships, trains and planes combined. Burgers are killing the
planet a bite at a time. Just like “sleepwalking” into the First World
War for lack of a sufficiently powerful attachment to peace, so too we
have a lurking fondness for apocalypse. The End is Nigh is now a video
game. Ask surfers: the spectacular “wipeout” is highly esteemed and
respected, even if not exactly sought after. The worse the better.

It is always possible that a hungry black hole – beloved of Stephen
Hawking – could come along and gobble up the planet in a single gulp.
But there is a more promising candidate in the shape of “strangelets”.
Strangelets are simply highly compressed quarks (which were already
fairly small to start off with). But there is a dark hypothesis to the
effect that “a strangelet could, by contagion, convert anything it
encountered into a new form of matter, transforming the entire Earth
into a hyperdense sphere about a hundred metres across.”

“Just don’t mention the strangelets!” he said, when I went to speak to
Rees in his rooms in Trinity College Cambridge, where Isaac Newton
once studied and where Rees was Master not so long ago. So I apologise
for mentioning them. But how could I not? The problem with strangelets
is that once they worm their way in you end up talking about nothing
else (and whole websites spring up dedicated to them).

Martin Rees points out that our social and subjective estimation of
disaster has evolved over the ages, so that, in effect, everyone is
much more of a snowflake than we ever used to be. “Back in the Middle
Ages, the Black Death wiped out as much as half the population in
Europe. But people carried on because there was not a lot they could
do about it. Now, in the event of a pandemic, if only 1 per cent of
the population were to die, the whole health service and the political
system would collapse.”

There is a brilliant short story by Arthur C Clarke in which a couple
of computer engineers mock the belief of a group of Tibetan monks who
reckon that the point of existence is to utter “the nine billion names
of God”, after which the universe will simply cease to exist. But at
the end of the story, as they are crossing a high Himalayan pass, they
look up into the night sky (for the last time) and notice that
“overhead, without any fuss, the stars were going out.”

It’s beautiful and elegiac, but we need to get out of the cosmic
graveyard. Every time we write “THE END” we can’t help thinking of
how, one day, it will all be over. We can’t wait to get to the end.
Maybe, like Martin Rees, we need to think more in terms of staying
alive a lot longer. The Earth has been around for a few billion years
and, strangelets and Tibetan monks notwithstanding, will almost
certainly stick around for a few more. Rumours of its demise have been
greatly exaggerated. It’s not apocalypse now. It’s more carry on, but
don’t necessarily keep calm. If you really want a future.

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I would always come across a fellow, a walking bill-board as it were and on the front and the back would be written: "The end is nigh" It was like a Paul Auster novel
Law & Politics

MANY years ago and when I was a boarder at Westminster school, I used
to like wandering the streets of central London on the weekend. My
typical circuit would pass by 10 Downing Street, Trafalgar Square, St
James and Green Parks, and I would often times end up at Speaker’s
Corner in Hyde Park. Speaker’s Corner was a place where anyone stand
up and speak about anything they chose. I am talking about a period
when the then Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was upending the Peacock
Throne, when Mrs. Thatcher was upending the Labour Party and Blondie
was top of the charts. The curious thing about these Sunday
meanderings around London was that I would always come across a
fellow, a walking bill-board as it were and on the front and the back
would be written: ‘’The end is nigh’’ It was like a Paul Auster novel.
I would see him in Trafalgar Square, then he might pop up at Speaker’s
Corner and once even in the cloisters at Westminster Abbey. This kind
of thing can unhinge a teenager.

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China reveals trade war strain as yuan slides and manufacturing stalls Guardian
International Trade

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 50.2 in October,
the lowest since July 2016 and down from 50.8 in September. A figure
below 50 represents a contraction. New export orders, an indicator of
future activity, contracted for a fifth straight month and at the
fastest pace in at least a year.
The figures suggest a further slowing in the world’s second-biggest
economy and could prompt more policy support from Beijing on top of a
raft of recent initiatives.

The moves have included pumping tens of billions of dollars into the
financial system and other measures to prop up local shares.

Raymond Yeung, chief economist for China at ANZ, said he expected more
measures, including cutting the amount of capital banks are required
to hold in reserve in order to ease liquidity.

“All the numbers from China’s PMI release today confirm a broad-based
decline in economic activity,” said adding that conditions for the
private sector is “much worse” than headline data suggested.

“The government’s priority is to avoid a financial blow-up.”

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$GOOG is breaking what I think is the most important equity market trend line in the world (the log chart since inception)
International Trade

The advertising business is under pressure globally and Google faces
increasing regulation. Any significant bounce is a short.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1342
Dollar Index 97.04
Japan Yen 113.23
Swiss Franc 1.0053
Pound 1.2715
Aussie 0.7091
India Rupee 74.035
South Korea Won 1138.22
Brazil Real 3.6965
Egypt Pound 17.9075
South Africa Rand 14.6458

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Eurozone Q3 GDP growth drops to 0.2%, less than 0.4% median estimate. @Schuldensuehner
World Currencies

Ouch! #Eurozone economy cools as #Italy growth falls to ZERO. Eurozone
Q3 GDP growth drops to 0.2%, less than 0.4% median estimate. Economic
confidence in region falls more than estimated.

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In a previous life, I worked for the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. That Mo Ibrahim is now speaking of a decade of 'lost opportunity' means the numbers are really bad. @simonallison

In a previous life, I worked for the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. They
worked hard to use moderate language to describe the results of their
governance index. That Mo Ibrahim is now speaking of a decade of 'lost
opportunity' means the numbers are really bad.

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Mo Ibrahim: Africa's decade of 'lost opportunity' @mailandguardian's @simonallison

The Ibrahim Index of African Governance, now in its 11th iteration, is
the most comprehensive measure of governance on the African continent.
It makes for thoroughly depressing reading.
“Public governance progress in Africa is lagging behind the needs and
expectations of a growing population, composed mainly of young
people,” the Foundation said.
Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese telecoms billionaire-turned-benefactor, was
even more blunt: “The lost opportunity of the past decade is deeply
Africa has a huge challenge ahead. Its large and youthful potential
workforce could transform the continent for the better, but this
opportunity is close to being squandered. The evidence is clear –
young citizens of Africa need hope, prospects and opportunities. Its
leaders need to speed up job creation to sustain progress and stave
off deterioration. The time to act is now.”
The unusually strong language from Ibrahim and his foundation is
dictated by the results of this year’s Index, which are a sobering
illustration of how little progress has been made in the past decade.
The ‘overall governance’ category has improved by just one percent,
and this negligible progress masks alarming deteriorations in other
Most concerning is the continent’s economic performance, or lack
thereof. “Since 2008 the African average score for ‘Sustainable
Economic Opportunity’ has increased by 0.1 point, or 0.2%, despite a
continental increase in GDP of nearly 40% over the same period. There
has been virtually no progress in creating ‘Sustainable Economic
Opportunity’, meaning it remains the Ibrahim Index’s worst performing
and slowest improving category.”
In other words, economic growth has not translated into better
economic conditions for the majority of Africans.
Another dispiriting trend is that in more than half of African
countries, education scores are getting worse. What this means in
practise is that children are getting less education than before, and
the teaching is of a lower standard. Given that Africa’s population is
overwhelmingly youthful — about 50% of Africans are under the age of
18, according to Unicef — this does not bode well for the future.
“This is a huge missed opportunity. It could become a recipe for
disaster. With the expected population growth, Africa stands at a
tipping point, and the next years will be crucial.”

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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa

What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

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Merkel looks to Africa to cement a legacy shaped by migration @Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts African leaders on Tuesday in a
drive to tackle underdevelopment on the continent that helped to spur
mass migration, shaping the later years of her long premiership.
Merkel announced on Monday she would retire from politics by 2021,
sending shockwaves across Europe and starting a race to succeed her.
She needs the Compact with Africa summit to show that progress has
been made in addressing the aftermath of one of the defining moments
of her 13 years in power: her 2015 decision to open Germany’s doors to
more than a million refugees.
The Berlin summit, attended by 12 leaders including South African
President Cyril Ramaphosa, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed and Rwanda’s Paul
Kagame, is designed to showcase the continent as a stable destination
for German investment.
The aim is to create good jobs for Africans, easing the poverty which
along with political instability and violence has encouraged large
numbers to head for Europe.
“We have to make sure we don’t stay in aid mode,” Merkel’s Africa
coordinator Guenter Nooke told public radio. “The many millions of
jobs we need in Africa can’t be created with public money.”

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"Signs in Zimbabwe are pointing to a possible rerun of the massive crisis that engulfed the country about a decade ago." DW News

On Monday, October 29, 2018, Mnangagwa met with the country's business
community. The president assured them that he was "working day and
night to stabilize the economy." Signs in Zimbabwe are pointing to a
possible rerun of the massive crisis that engulfed the country about a
decade ago. Among them is a sudden surge of the country's stock
exchange's industrial index in October, which now stands at the
relatively high market valuation of $22 billion (€19.3 billion), a
sudden gain of more than 50 percent in a matter of days.

According to the market's spokesperson Tapiwa Bepe, the surge is a
consequence of the country's profound crisis. "The political and
economic environment is volatile. The heightened activity on the stock
market was therefore investors scrambling to take positions in real
assets by disposing of cash and bank balances," Bepe told DW. Foreign
investors and national investors believe that stocks and shares offer
more security.

"What we have seen is that foreigners have been taking their money out
through the medium of fungible shares," investing them in foreign
companies, he said. That way the money is leaving the country through
legal means.

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.@Trafigura Unit to Supply Gasoline to Zimbabwe Amid Shortages @BBGAfrica

Zimbabwe signed a gasoline-supply agreement with a unit of Trafigura
Beheer BV and is in talks with Total Zimbabwe Ltd. and others about
securing more, Energy Minister Joram Gumbo said.
The government accord with Sakunda Holdings will help alleviate a
shortage of fuel that’s led to queues outside gas stations in the
capital, Harare, and other centers. Supplies dropped because of a
scarcity of foreign exchange in the southern African country.
Trafigura will provide 100 million liters of gasoline to Zimbabwe over
the next 12 to 18 months, Gumbo said by phone Tuesday from the
capital, Harare. Some supplies have already been received upfront, he
“Ideally, we should have stocks of six months in the country, but
because of the forex situation it’s not something that is possible at
the moment,” he said. “We are trying to ensure that that the situation
In addition to the Trafigura agreement, the state is in talks with
Total and Engen Petroleum Ltd. about each supplying 25 million liters,
while Kuwait-based Independent Petroleum Group will provide 5 million
liters, he said.
Zimbabwe’s gasoline consumption is about 3.8 million liters a day,
compared with about 1.5 million six months ago, while demand for
diesel has grown to 4.1 million liters from 2.5 million liters over
the same period, Gumbo said.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -14.70% 2018

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.6458


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9075


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -13.27% 2018


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +6.65% 2018


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Q1 budget numbers are in. Revenue is stagnant, well below target and spot on my prediction of Sh. 1.3 tr. Domestic borrowing well above target @DavidNdii
Kenyan Economy

No significant foreign borrowing yet. National govt’s development
budget, for all intents frozen, and counties bearing the brunt.

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@KenyaAirways makes historic nonstop US flight @CNN
Kenyan Economy

"This is an exciting moment for us," Kenya Airways Group Managing
Director and Chief Executive Sebastian Mikosz said in a statement. "It
fits within our strategy to attract corporate and high-end tourism
traffic from the world to Kenya and Africa."
Kenya earned $1.2 billion in 2017 from tourism, more than a 20%
increase from $989 million the previous year, and the US is one of the
country's biggest tourism markets.
Travel from the United States grew by 17% and totaled 114,507
arrivals, according to figures released by Kenya's Tourism Ministry.
"With infrastructure spending set to slow from past highs as Kenya
embarks on fiscal consolidation, and with private-sector credit still
weak, Kenya is in need of additional growth drivers," said Razia Khan,
chief economist for Africa and the Middle East for Standard Chartered
"Direct flights to the US will provide a substantial boost to tourism,
which has been growing strongly, providing a potential offset to other
growth headwinds."
Kenya Airways, which is partly state-owned, estimates the New York
route will boost revenue by 10% in 2019. Bookings already grew by
1,974 last week, the airline said.
In 2017, African airlines reported 7.5% growth in passenger traffic
according to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

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@SafaricomPLC reports H1 2018 Earnings Friday morning share price data previous FY Earnings here ->
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           23.50
Market Capitalisation:  $9.243b
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 17.029

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@KenyaPower to delay publishing of the Company's audited annual financial statements of accounts for the period ended 30th June 2018 and reassures publishing not later than 30th November 2018.
Kenyan Economy

@KenyaPower to delay publishing of the Company’s audited annual
financial statements of accounts for the period ended 30th June 2018
and reassures publishing not later than 30th November 2018. The
company alludes to recent changes in the Company’s senior management.

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Cost of Propping Up Kenya's Shilling Seen in Dwindling Reserves @BBGAfrica
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s shilling is one of only two African currencies that have eked
out gains against the dollar this year -- but it’s come at the cost of
diminishing foreign-exchange reserves.
The shilling is still up 1.3 percent against the greenback this year
even after losing some ground since mid-April as higher oil prices and
rising government debt weighed on investors’ minds. The Central Bank
of Kenya’s foreign reserves dropped by 13 percent in the same period
to the lowest since March, when they were bolstered by a $1 billion
Eurobond sale. Using reserves to protect the shilling may prove
futile, however.
The currency fell the most in 20 months on Monday even as the central
bank sold dollars, and extended declines on Tuesday after a Treasury
official said the East African country will seek to raise $2.8 billion
in Eurobonds and loans this fiscal year. The International Monetary
Fund estimates Kenya’s total public debt will peak at 63.2 percent of
gross domestic product this year from 58 percent in 2017, and warned
the higher debt level increased the nation’s fiscal vulnerabilities.
“Negative sentiment from the IMF on Kenya’s debt levels and news of
another Eurobond issue” weighed on the shilling, Stephen Wausi, a
trader at Nairobi-based Family Bank Ltd., said in a client note. “The
CBK sold an unspecified amount of dollars to support, but there was
minimal effect.”
The shilling slipped 0.1 percent to 101.9 per dollar by 12:42 p.m. in
Nairobi to the weakest level in nine months, extending Monday’s 0.5
percent drop. More pain may be in store, according to Bank of America
Merrill Lynch.
Elevated fiscal and current-account deficits will weigh on the
currency as oil prices rise and remittances from Kenyans working
abroad -- a major source of foreign-exchange -- slow amid tightening
conditions globally, Rukayat Yusuf, a London-based analyst at Bank of
America, said in a note dated Oct. 16.
“The Kenyan shilling has proven resilient but could face pressures
next year as higher oil prices and slowing remittance momentum feed
into the current-account deficit,” he wrote.

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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -15.18% 2018
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -24.53% 2018


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2018

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