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Thursday 08th of November 2018
 
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Macro Thoughts

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@realDonaldTrump on falling oil prices: 'That's because of me' @CNBC H/T @hervegogo
Africa


"I gave some countries a break on the oil," Trump said during a
lengthy, wide-ranging press conference the day after Republicans lost
control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. "I
did it a little bit because they really asked for some help, but I
really did it because I don't want to drive oil prices up to $100 a
barrel or $150 a barrel, because I'm driving them down."
"If you look at oil prices they've come down very substantially over
the last couple of months," Trump said. "That's because of me. Because
you have a monopoly called OPEC, and I don't like that monopoly."
Oil prices have tumbled as much as 20 percent from four-year highs on Oct. 3.

Conclusions

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A Life Worth Living - Albert Camus, born on this day in 1913, on our search for meaning and why happiness is a moral obligation @brainpicking
Africa


Reflecting on the parallels between Camus and Montaigne, Zaretsky
finds in this ongoing chase one crucial difference of dispositions:
Camus achieves with the Myth what the philosopher Maurice
Merleau-Ponty claimed for Montaigne’s Essays: it places “a
consciousness astonished at itself at the core of human existence.”
For Camus, however, this astonishment results from our confrontation
with a world that refuses to surrender meaning.
It occurs when our need for meaning shatters against the indifference,
immovable and absolute, of the world. As a result, absurdity is not an
autonomous state; it does not exist in the world, but is instead
exhaled from the abyss that divides us from a mute world.
Camus himself captured this with extraordinary elegance when he wrote
in The Myth of Sisyphus:
This world in itself is not reasonable, that is all that can be said.
But what is absurd is the confrontation of this irrational and wild
longing for clarity whose call echoes in the human heart. The absurd
depends as much on man as on the world. For the moment it is all that
links them together.
To discern these echoes amid the silence of the world, Zaretsky
suggests, was at the heart of Camus’s tussle with the absurd:
We must not cease in our exploration, Camus affirms, if only to hear
more sharply the silence of the world. In effect, silence sounds out
when human beings enter the equation. If “silences must make
themselves heard,” it is because those who can hear inevitably demand
it. And if the silence persists, where are we to find meaning?
Camus observed that absurdity might ambush us on a street corner or a
sun-blasted beach. But so, too, do beauty and the happiness that
attends it. All too often, we know we are happy only when we no longer
are.
It is not so easy to become what one is, to rediscover one’s deepest measure.

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Midterm Election, Most House Seats Lost by President's Party in Power @Convertbond
Law & Politics


2010 Obama: -63
1994 Clinton: -52
1958: Eisenhower: -48
1974 Ford (Nixon): -48
1966 Johnson: -47
1946 Truman: -45
2006 Bush: -30
1950 Truman: -29
1982 Reagan: -26
2018 Trump: -26

*NY Times data since 1946

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Sri Lankan crisis far from over as Wickremesinghe digs in @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


Speaker Jayasuriya, after days of silence and polite requests to the
President calling for a parliamentary session to resolve the
stand-off, was seen taking a strong stance on Monday when he issued an
official statement recognizing Wickremesinghe as the legitimate prime
minister.
President Sirisena addressed crowds gathered at a mass protest near
the parliament on Monday, when he was also seen making offensive
remarks about the ousted prime minister being homosexual.
“Wickremesinghe did not contribute to fulfil the promises given by the
good-governance Government. When it came to taking crucial decisions
over the future of the country, senior government leaders were not
allowed to participate. Wickremesinghe and his ‘butterfly gang’ took
all the decisions,” he claimed.
The president’s remarks were later heavily criticized by the country’s
LGBT community, which claimed that he was promoting homophobia and
public incitement of homophobic hatred.
A statement containing over 120 signatures condemned Sirisena for his
remarks, saying: “We condemn his use of homophobia to amuse his
political gallery. By trivializing homophobia in this fashion,
President Sirisena should be held responsible for any homophobic
incidents that Sri Lankan citizens may experience in the coming days.”

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Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson warns of the risk of an "economic iron curtain" between the U.S. and China
Law & Politics


How Did We Get Here?

Paulson argued the U.S. and China have diverging interests in critical
areas that go beyond trade. Even if the two sides reach a deal on
trade, he said, the underlying tensions will still persist due to
deeper issues.
A consensus has emerged in the U.S. that engagement has failed to
alter Chinese behaviour.
Some 17 years after China entered the WTO, it still has not opened its
economy to foreign competition in many areas -- prompting even the
American business community in China to call for confrontation.
Paulson argued that China’s failure to open up is more to blame than
confrontational attitudes in the U.S., which predated Trump. Major
problems include:
The Communist Party commands all
Private business must support the strategic goals of the state
Foreign technology is “being reworked so that foreign technologies
become Chinese technologies through an indigenization process” that
many CEOs find “grossly unfair.”
China’s “Digital Silk Road” -- an initiative to export Beijing’s
standards for cyber-governance -- are further driving confrontation
with the U.S.
What are the Risks?
More people in both the U.S. and China are advocating “policies that
could forcibly de-integrate the two countries.”
Some in U.S. are advocating a “Cold War-style technology denial
regime” as China looks to set its own standards and pursue
self-reliance.
That raises “the prospect of an Economic Iron Curtain—one that throws
up new walls on each side and unmakes the global economy, as we have
known it.”
In trying to isolate China, the U.S. risks isolating itself. Companies
may look to base themselves in countries that are less hostile to
China, instead of the U.S.
U.S. actions against China risk setting up a new round of conflict
with partners the U.S. needs to alter Chinese behavior.

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15-OCT-2018 :: War is coming
Law & Politics


Turkish🇹🇷 defense minister and former chief of general staff
Hulusi Akar visits with a military delegation the #Sudan|ese🇸🇩
#Suvakin island, which is strategically located in the middle of the
Red Sea.

https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/1060154807560929280

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Today from Massawa, Eritrea [admittedly on the Red Sea] to Djibouti, from Berbera to Mogadishu, from Lamu to Mombasa to Tanga to Bagamoyo to Dar Es Salaam, through Beira and Maputo all the way to Durban
Law & Politics


Today from Massawa, Eritrea [admittedly on the Red Sea] to Djibouti,
from Berbera to Mogadishu, from Lamu to Mombasa to Tanga to Bagamoyo
to Dar Es Salaam, through Beira and Maputo all the way to Durban and
all points in between we are witnessing a Port race of sorts as
everyone seeks to get a piece of the Indian Ocean Port action. China
[The BRI initiative], the Gulf Countries [who now appear to see the
Horn of Africa as their hinterland], Japan and India [to a lesser
degree] are all jostling for optimal ‘’geo-economic’’ positioning.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1430
Dollar Index 96.24
Japan Yen 113.67
Swiss Franc 1.0027
Pound 1.3132
Aussie 0.7284
India Rupee 72.45
South Korea Won 1118.67
Brazil Real 3.7318
Egypt Pound 17.9115
South Africa Rand 13.9381

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A video link posted on @facebook on June 20 showed a man cooking human body parts in a pot over a wood fire. @ReutersAfrica
Africa


The man in the video was not a separatist fighter or cannibal, and the
body parts were not real. The clip was taken on a Nigerian film set
and uploaded to Instagram on June 17 by make-up artist Hakeem
Onilogbo, who uses the platform to showcase his work.
But the video’s rapid spread raises questions about Facebook’s ability
to police millions of posts each day and crack down on hate speech in
a country where internet use is rising fast, social media are used for
political ends and the company has no permanent physical presence.
The day the link was posted on Facebook, a member of the government
brought the video to the attention of international diplomats in the
capital, Yaounde, via the WhatsApp messaging service, according to
messages seen by Reuters.
Five days later, Cameroon’s minister for territorial administration
cited it as justification for an army clampdown against the
secessionists that was already under way in the Anglophone regions.
The minister, Paul Atanga Nji, compared the rebellion - over decades
of perceived marginalisation by the French-speaking majority - to an
Islamist insurgency waged by the Nigeria-based militant group Boko
Haram which has killed 30,000 people.

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Investors who bought #Mozambique's Eurobonds after it defaulted in January 2017 have been richly rewarded. @PaulWallace123
Africa


They're the best-performing sovereign bonds in all of EM in that time.
Yesterday's announcement of a restructuring deal only added to the
gains. @TheTerminal

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"Sometimes there is too much hullabaloo about it," @AfDB_Group @akin_adesina
Africa


“Africa should not be afraid of China, its a very good learning
experience for Africa, lifting 400 million people out of poverty,”
Akinwumi Adesina, the AfDB head, said late on Tuesday in Johannesburg.
“African countries are mature enough to negotiate with China about
their needs, which is to close infrastructure gaps.”
While the lender is discussing deals worth $40 billion at an
investment conference in the South African city, it’s pushing African
countries to also seek other funding partners. While governments
should take care not to get involved in “asymmetrical negotiations”
with China and to make sure environmental and labor concerns are
addressed, on balance the engagement with China is accelerating
development, he said.
“Sometimes there is too much hullabaloo about it,” Adesina said.

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Madagascar starts voting in bid to end poverty, corruption @ReutersAfrica
Africa


President Hery Rajaonarimampianina is seeking a second term in office
and his two main challengers are former heads of state: Marc
Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina.
All three have criss-crossed the island in a hunt for votes and each
has pledged to accelerate recovery for an economy the International
Monetary Fund forecasts will grow at more than 5 percent this year,
its highest rate in a decade.
Civil society groups accuse the three wealthy front-runners of
enriching themselves in office, something each denies.
The groups say a fisheries deal the incumbent signed with Chinese
firms in September is opaque and will impoverish local fishermen.
They also said Ravalomanana failed to tackle corruption during his
time in office that ended in 2009 when he was forced out by protests
led by Rajoelina in what international organisations like the African
Union said was a coup.
Conservation groups then accused Rajoelina, the man who ousted him, of
profiting from the plunder of natural resources.
There are nearly 10 million registered voters in the country of 25
million people, data from the electoral commission showed.
Few analysts expect an outright winner from the 36 total who are contesting.
If the poll needs to go to a second round, it will involve only the
two top candidates and take place on Dec. 19.

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Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world, with three-quarters of the population living on the equivalent of $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank.
Africa


While high vanilla prices boosted export earnings last year, a severe
drought and several cyclones cut the supply of locally grown rice and
triggered a contraction in agriculture.

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De l'Estrac said. "If the first-round results aren't clear cut, we have reason to fear that elements of crisis might erupt."
Africa


Three former presidents who’ve been embroiled in long-running disputes
are running against each other in an election Wednesday in Madagascar,
the world’s biggest vanilla grower.

Since 2002, balloting on the Indian Ocean island nation has been prone
to instability, prompting the United Nations to mediate talks with the
ex-leaders in the run-up to the vote. Though a total of 36 candidates
are running for the presidency, the three men attracted the largest
crowds at colorful rallies with singers and fireworks.

The ex-presidents’ rocky relationships raise the risk of instability
after the vote, said Jean Claude de l’Estrac, a former
secretary-general of the Indian Ocean Commission. A second round of
voting is scheduled for December if no candidate garners more than 50
percent of ballots.

“There are concerns when you have three former presidents competing,
and their differences aren’t only political, and there’s also some
personal animosity in what separates them,” De l’Estrac said. “If the
first-round results aren’t clear cut, we have reason to fear that
elements of crisis might erupt.”

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Rwanda is "like a prison" with Paul Kagame its imperious warden, according to Diane Rwigara @AFP
Africa


The 37-year-old, who was released on bail in October, struck a defiant
tone speaking to AFP ahead of her trial for treason, insurrection and
forgery.
"I just came out of a prison but my country still feels like a prison.
And the prison guard is none other than the ruling party... dictating
to us how to live, what to do and what to say," she said in an
interview at her home in the capital Kigali.
"I was not surprised by my arrest. I was kind of expecting it because
of what I was doing in the country: if you dare criticise the
government that is what happens, you get arrested, imprisoned or lose
your life. I expected some form of retaliation.
"Some of the statistics on Rwanda's development appear to be cooked,"
she said, repeating allegations made by many regime critics.
"There is a high level of poverty and unemployment but you will not
hear that," she said.
On Wednesday, Rwigara hopes to defend herself against what she says
are trumped-up charges.
"I am innocent and the charges are fabricated because I opposed the
ruling party," she insisted. "I hope I will not go back to prison but
if I go back, I go back."

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Tanzania disowns gay witch-hunt plan by city administrator @FT
Africa


Campaigners have given a cautious welcome to comments from Tanzania’s
government that disown a plan by the administrator of the country’s
biggest city to hunt down and punish members of the gay community.
The regional commissioner for Dar es Salaam, Paul Makonda, last week
called on Tanzanians to report gay people living in the city, saying
that a specially convened team would start rounding up gays and
lesbians from Monday.
A few days later — following an international outcry — the foreign
affairs ministry issued a statement “to inform the public that those
sentiments are individual and do not reflect the government position”.
It added: “[The government] will continue to respect all international
agreements on human rights that have been signed and ratified.”
Local and international campaigners welcomed the government’s
statement, while expressing concern for the long-term safety of the
gay community in Tanzania. “The statement will provide cold comfort to
LGBT people in Tanzania if the authorities continue to subject them to
arbitrary arrests and discrimination,” said Neela Ghoshal, senior LGBT
rights researcher at Human Rights Watch.
Angelo Denzel, an activist working with LGBT people in Dar es Salaam,
said the statement was useful but that the future for the gay
community remained uncertain. “There is still a lot of fear and
anxiety because no one knows what it is going to happen next,” he
said. “The government needs to come with another statement to clarify
the way forward.”
The threat against LGBT people was the latest in a series of
controversial policies and public statements made by President John
Magufuli and members of his administration, since he came to power in
2015. Last year Mr Magufuli told a political rally that girls that
fall pregnant should not be allowed to return to school. In September,
he railed against contraception and said there was no need for birth
control if people work hard enough to feed their children.
Mr Magufuli, nicknamed “the bulldozer”, has attacked corruption and
foreign investment while restricting government criticism. The
government has banned some opposition rallies, shut down news
organisations and jailed activists.
In February, two opposition politicians were sentenced to five months
in prison for insulting the president. On Friday, opposition leader
and parliamentarian Zitto Kabwe was charged with sedition after he
said clashes between police and the local population had left more
than 100 people dead in the district of Kigoma in the west of the
country.
The various clampdowns have rattled foreign investors, some of which
have also been targeted. Last year Tanzania banned exports of gold
concentrate and slapped London-listed producer Acacia Mining with a
$190bn tax bill. That penalty is being negotiated down but in the past
month two current and one former Acacia employees were arrested by the
government’s anti-corruption authority.
The different actions have strained Tanzania’s relationships with
foreign governments. The EU said on Monday it had recalled its
ambassador to review its relationship with Mr Magufuli’s government.
“The EU regrets the deterioration of the human rights and rule of law
situation in the country,” it said.

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AB InBev Zimbabwe Sees Panic Buying of Beer Over Tax Controversy
Africa


Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV’s Zimbabwe interest said government
dithering over a controversial tax on money transfers has led to panic
buying of beer and a disruption in fuel supplies, overshadowing a
bumper six-month period of sales.

Delta Corp., which has the world’s biggest brewer as its largest
shareholder, said business confidence has been undermined in the
southern African nation by “conflicting statements from authorities.”
The shortage of fuel has disrupted deliveries while a surge in demand
has made the market unpredictable, it said in a results presentation
on Wednesday.

Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube introduced the levy last
month to help repair stretched state finances, only for President
Emmerson Mnangagwa to announce a rethink after a wave of panic buying
and a rise in basic-commodity prices. Foreign-exchange shortages and
austerity measures have also hurt consumers yet to see signs of an
economic revival after the ouster of Robert Mugabe a year ago.

Delta’s performance in the six months through September benefited from
the optimistic mood that characterised the election period, with lager
sales jumping 54 percent to $187 million. Volumes passed their
historical peak in 2012/2013, with sorghum beer production also
rising.

read more




The rand closed below its 100-day moving average on Tuesday for the first time since April; the last time it held below that level, in December, it marked the start of a two-month, 18 percent rally
Africa


The rand has breached 14 to the dollar, and “is set to make further
headway south,” said Sejul Gokal, founder and chief strategist at
GO-TechniKAL Insight. “The next objective zone is at 13.70-60, which
captures Fibonacci lines and price highs. A closing break below 14.00
today would heighten that risk.”

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"We stand by our brothers in the Gulf wholeheartedly"
Africa


“We stand by our brothers in the Gulf wholeheartedly and if Gulf
security is directly threatened by anyone, the Egyptian people, even
before their leadership, will not accept that and will mobilise forces
to protect their brethren.”

read more




A section of the popular #Gikomba Market has been reduced to ashes after a mysterious fire broke out at around 2:00 am, with property of unknown value being destroyed @MaudhuiHouse
Kenyan Economy


A section of the popular #Gikomba Market has been reduced to ashes
after a mysterious fire broke out at around 2:00 am, with property of
unknown value being destroyed ,This becomes the 9th fire incident
witnessed in the same market in less than 8 years.

read more



The Kenya Shilling is uppermost in most folks minds.
Kenyan Economy


📌 The Key levels are from 2011 and are 105.00 - 107.00
📌 In the matter of the shilling I would prefer to be long than short
📌 I beg to differ with the august and venerable IMF in this matter

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@KenolKobil to acquire 33 Delta fuel stations in Uganda, Rwanda
Kenyan Economy


Listed oil marketer KenolKobil   is set to acquire 33 petrol stations
in Uganda and Rwanda, marking a return to expansion nearly three years
since it scaled down its regional footprint by exiting Tanzania and
the Democratic Republic of Congo markets.
The company announced on Wednesday that it is acquiring the retail
stations—23 in Uganda and 10 in Rwanda—from Delta Petroleum, but did
not disclose the value of the deal.

read more


@Kenolkobil share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           18.40
Total Shares Issued:          1471761200.00
Market Capitalization:        27,080,406,080
EPS:             1.67
PE:                 11.018

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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