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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 05th of November 2018
 
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Africa

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Rumors of a US-China trade truce look more like an attempt to talk up the market ahead of the election rather than real progress on the trade spat @joebrusuelas
Africa


Rumors of a US-China trade truce look more like an attempt to talk up
the market ahead of the election rather than real progress on the
trade spat. I'm still telling client to prepare for a full 25% tariff
on $517 billion of Chinese imports by mid-2019.

read more








Shape Serendipity Understand Stress Reignite Passion Bloomberg The Power of Pull.
Africa


Serendipity can be shaped. Being in the right place at the right time
is not a new concept; the catchy little phrase has been with us since
childhood. But is a fortuitous encounter that leads to a new business
contract pure luck? Are some people luckier? Does luck last?We believe
you can shape serendipity. This is a very counter-intuitive notion.
After all, most of us believe that serendipity is pure luck. How can
you shape luck? While chance is an intrinsic element of serendipity,
we believe that you can significantly alter the probability and
quality of the unexpected encounters in our lives.

Three choices determine how we shape serendipity:

* Where we spend our time. People are spending more time in virtual
environments, especially social network platforms, because they
instinctively sense that these environments are often rich catalysts
for serendipity. At the same time, people are making choices about
where they spend their time in physical environments that also shape
serendipity. While the world is getting flatter due to technology
advances, people still move to large urban centers, frequent
conferences, and participate in institutions which increase the
likelihood of unexpected encounters with people relevant to their
interests and needs.
* How we spend our time. These physical and virtual environments
attract a large number of people. How do we stand out and get noticed
so that we attract unexpected encounters?
* How we maximize the value of the unexpected encounter. If we are not
prepared when the unexpected encounter finally occurs, it will not
yield much value. Listening deeply, being attentive, and understanding
what the other person is involved in prove invaluable in converting a
chance meeting into a more valuable sustained relationship that keeps
on giving.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping attends opening ceremony of China's first import expo(#CIIE), delivers keynote speech: @Echinanews
Law & Politics


🔸China will only become more and more open
🔸China's initiative to expand imports not makeshift
🔸Economic globalization an irreversible trend

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H.E President @UKenyatta delivering his statement at the CIIE in Shanghai China, FOCAC vision. 🇰🇪🇨🇳@Diplomacy_Kenya
Law & Politics


H.E President @UKenyatta delivering his statement at the CIIE in
Shanghai China, pitching for market access for Kenyan and African
products in China, as a basis for a shared future and prosperity
embodied in the FOCAC vision. 🇰🇪🇨🇳

read more




Sri Lanka: A Pro-Chinese Constitutional Coup? @SputnikInt
Law & Politics


Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, who was previously regarded
as close to India, suddenly replaced his Prime Minister with a former
pro-Chinese leader in a controversial shake-up that could upset the
balance of power between India and China in the Indian Ocean Region.
Mahinda Rajapaksa, who served as President from 2005-2015 and oversaw
the island nation's comprehensive enhancement of ties with China, took
the place of pro-Indian politician and four-time Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe after President Sirisena dismissed the latter and
suspended parliament, which critics say was anti-constitutional while
the government says that it acted within the ambit of the law.

Adding an extra flair of international drama to everything is that
President Sirisena recently alleged that a shadowy assassination plot
was being hatched against him, which he confirmed on Sunday was the
main reason why he sacked his Prime Minister. His office earlier
clarified that he didn't accuse India's Research and Analysis Wing
(RAW) of being behind it, but interestingly enough, Rajapaksa
previously blamed that foreign intelligence agency of being behind his
narrow electoral defeat in January 2015, which suggests a history of
Indian meddling in Sri Lanka's internal affairs. On the other hand,
skeptics think that Rajapaksa's return to power through what some are
describing as an anti-constitutional coup is part of a Chinese plot to
geopolitically compensate for the relative losses that it's expected
to experience in the Maldives after Chinese-friendly President Yameen
failed to be reelected in late September following his surprise loss
to a very pro-Indian opposition politician.

The struggle for influence between notional BRICS partners India and
China in the Indian Ocean Region is one of the defining features of
contemporary geopolitics because of the enormity of what's at stake.
China is constructing large-scale infrastructure projects across the
maritime rimland in order to foster trade along the Silk Road, but
some of its Indian opponents consider this to be a so-called "string
of pearls" designed to "contain" their country. The mutual suspicions
that each Great Power has of the other in this region stand in stark
contrast to their recent rapprochement following last summer's
Doklam/Donglang drama in the Himalayas.

The Sri Lankan political crisis is therefore much more geopolitically
pertinent than many might think. To discuss this issue in more detail,
Andrew Korybko is joined by Shenali Waduge, independent political
analyst from Sri Lanka, and Jagath Perera, political activist from
Colombo, Sri Lanka.

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What is happening in Sri Lanka right now sits somewhere in between House of Cards, Game of Thrones and Shakespeare's darkest Roman plays.
Law & Politics


It involves a man who betrayed his leader only now to return him to
power, an alleged murder plot, and two men laying claim to a grand
white mansion that is a symbol of political power.

read more


Bruce Riedel, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, told me, "There is no political way out, except through violence."
Law & Politics


Apparently relying on music to soothe his conscience, the forensic
scientist among the assassins then sawed up and possibly destroyed his
body. Then they fled the country.

read more







'Father of Taliban' assassinated in Pakistan by unknown killer @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


The high-profile Islamic cleric and politician Sami-ul-Haq, known for
his role in, and influence over the Taliban, was killed in his home in
Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on Friday, November 2.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1384
Dollar Index 96.50
Japan Yen 113.18
Swiss Franc 1.0042
Pound 1.2984
Aussie 0.7186
India Rupee 72.825
South Korea Won 1123.54
Brazil Real 3.6968
Egypt Pound 17.9075
South Africa Rand 14.3436

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@UMG targets Africa for growth in music streaming @FT
Africa


Universal Music Group has struck a licensing deal to push into Africa,
as the world’s largest music company searches the globe to tap into
riches from digital streaming.
Through the agreement UMG — home to acts including Lady Gaga, Kendrick
Lamar and Elton John — will license its catalogue to Boomplay, a
fast-growing African music streaming service, as well as trying to
build a stronger global audience for African acts.
The move comes as owner Vivendi is looking to sell up to half of the
shares of Universal Music, which analysts say is now worth more than
$40bn thanks to a nascent recovery in the music business.
UMG’s global acts such as Drake and local artists like Nigerian singer
Tekno will be available to the 36m listeners on Boomplay’s streaming
platform in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda and
Zambia.
Boomplay’s service currently offers 2m songs, spanning genres like
Afrobeat, Afropop and hip-hop.
As distribution has evolved from CDs followed by digital downloads,
industry executives say that regions latching on to smartphones and
previously ravaged by music piracy are now ripe for streaming. Latin
America, for example, has been a standout success for the music
industry in the past few years as Spotify became popular in the
region.
With growth of services like Spotify set to slow in mature western
markets by 2019, “the streaming market will need to look towards
emerging markets for growth”, said Mark Mulligan, analyst at Midia
Research.
The major record companies see potential in Africa, where a rapidly
growing and young population appears receptive to streaming.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, 60 per cent of the population is under 25
years old, according to UN data.
More than 400m people have mobile phone subscriptions in sub-Saharan
Africa and this is expected to grow to 690m by 2025, according to the
GSMA mobile economy report.
While UMG has long had a presence in South Africa, this will be its
first major expansion to the rest of the continent. It opened a
Nigerian division with a new office in Lagos earlier this year. The
company said it is looking to “grow the entire African music
ecosystem”.
Mr Mulligan at Midia warned that in sub-Saharan Africa, “weak
infrastructure and patchy rights frameworks, coupled with low consumer
spending power, have long acted as brakes” on music revenues.
Sub-Saharan Africa represents 15 per cent of the global population,
but just 1 per cent of the global recorded music market, Midia
calculates, with its streaming market “in its infancy”.
Boomplay is owned by Transsion Holdings, a Chinese manufacturer that
overtook Samsung this year to become the number one smartphone company
by sales in Africa.

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Africa's rising debt: how to avoid a new crisis @ODIdev
Africa


• Public external debt in sub-Saharan Africa is on the rise, with 18
countries at high risk of debt distress – a number that has more than
doubled since 2013 – and eight countries already
in distress.
• The composition of public external debt has changed dramatically
over recent years, with declining concessionality and increased
borrowing from non-traditional official and private lenders. Past debt
relief mechanisms will not be the solution for dealing with debt
problems in this new financing landscape.
• Despite the growing need for effective debt management, many
sub-Saharan African countries have weak or lagging capacity in this
area.
• Responsible debt management requires transparency and
information-sharing among borrowers and lenders, but this remains a
challenge, exacerbated by the rise of new lenders and more complex
types of debt financing.
• State-contingent debt instruments with official sector support from
lenders can build fiscal resilience to exogenous shocks.
• Further strengthening debt management capacity and analytical tools
for debt management in sub-Saharan Africa remains a priority, and
requires up-front country ownership and political commitment, as well
as commitment from donors and technical assistance providers.

read more


ATMs Run Dry as Sudan's Economic Rot Goes Beyond U.S. Sanctions @BBGAfrica
Africa


Going by his bank statements, Isam Ali isn’t short of money -- but in
Sudan’s cash-strapped capital that’s exactly what he is.
Several times a week, the 45-year-old accountant lines up at one of
the few ATMs in Khartoum still dispensing banknotes, waiting hours to
withdraw the daily maximum of 2,000 Sudanese pounds ($42).
That sum’s being spread increasingly thinly to feed his family, as
inflation in the North African nation hits its highest in two decades,
quashing hopes 2017’s lifting of U.S. sanctions could spur an economic
revival.
The reality: three devaluations for the Sudanese pound this year, the
central bank rushing to print more money and a government that can
only promise further austerity as President Umar al-Bashir
periodically hires and fires his ministers.
“Things are going from bad to worse and the government is changing the
cabinet only to buy time,” said Ali. A father of two, he’s feeling the
trickle-down from a dearth of foreign investment in Sudan and a
chronic lack of liquidity in its banking system.
In a torrid decade for Sudan’s $117.5 billion economy, which included
the south seceding in 2011 with three-quarters of the united country’s
oil reserves, the past year may have been its worst.
Despite lifting most sanctions, the U.S. still lists Sudan as a state
sponsor of terrorism, a designation that officials blame for the lack
of significant new investment. Inflation is almost 70 percent, and the
pound trades at 47.5 per dollar, plunging from 18 in January.
The International Monetary Fund says the economy may contract 2.3
percent this year.
“People lost confidence in the banking system,” says Hamid Eltagani, a
Sudanese economics professor at the American University in Cairo. “The
economy is becoming more of a rudimentary system of barter-exchange
and the government has no instrument to entice cash into the banks.”
While the U.S. sanctions -- imposed in 1997 on terrorism allegations
-- hit Sudanese government agencies that provided essential services,
the nation’s elites often found ways to circumvent them, setting up
companies that benefited from preferential access to hard currency and
contracts.
Al-Bashir has repeatedly blamed Sudan’s economic troubles on alleged
plots by the U.S. and other Western countries. He’s said “fat cats”
including unidentified bankers, black-market traders and smugglers
also bear responsibility.
Prime Minister Mutaz Musa in October announced a 15-month plan to trim
inflation and cut spending. Vowing to strictly monitor government
expenditure, tackle corruption and protect those on lower incomes, he
ruled out any removal of subsidies in 2019’s budget. Their withdrawal
in January for flour and electricity sparked protests and dozens of
arrests.
For Abdullah Ismail, 55, his day job isn’t enough to make ends meet.
The Sudan Railways Corp. workshop employee spends half his 4,000
pounds monthly salary on rent, then has to eke out food,
transportation, electricity and school fees with the rest.
He borrowed 10,000 pounds from a local bank to buy a small taxi and
make extra money. But the fresh earnings were eaten up by rising
expenses; he hasn’t been able to make repayments for six months. “I
failed and I’m in danger of being imprisoned,” for the outstanding
debt, Ismail said.
Losing oil plunged Sudan into crisis, but the country’s involvement in
a new deal to end South Sudan’s five-year civil war could bring
compensation.
As landlocked South Sudan boosts its crude output, that may mean extra
revenue for Sudan, which collects fees for transporting oil by
pipeline to a port on the Red Sea. Sudan pumped about 86,000 barrels
per day of its own oil last year, according to BP Plc.
Gold has been touted as a replacement to oil, and exports of about
10.7 metric tons brought in $422 million in the first half of 2018,
the Minerals Ministry says. But the government complains most exports
don’t go through official channels and has promised steps against
smuggling.
In the meantime, Sudanese like Zahra Ahmed -- a 21-year-old arts
student at the University of Khartoum -- are looking for any work
available to cover their expenses and tuition.
“My family can’t manage to provide that for me as well as my two
sisters,” she said.

read more



A problem for Ethiopia's leader: the young men who helped him to power
Africa


They were tortured for their political beliefs. They saw friends shot
dead by security forces. They were forced to cut their hair and give
up other cultural traditions. This year, they say, they caused a
revolution.
Young men from Ethiopia’s Oromo, the country’s largest ethnic group,
proudly declare “we won” when describing their role in the rise of
42-year-old reformer Abiy Ahmed, also an Oromo, to become prime
minister.

Across the Oromiya region, many of those young men claiming victory
now want Abiy to deliver - and fast. The “Qeerroo”, an Oromo term
meaning “bachelor” adopted by politically active young men, are
demanding answers.

Will there be justice for friends who died during strikes and protests
over the past three years? Will their rights as Oromos be respected?
When will Abiy’s pledges of change help their impoverished
communities?

Whether Abiy can answer those demands without favoring his home region
over the rest of the country will dictate whether the young men remain
an asset to him or become a dangerous liability. Before he came to
power, the Oromo youths had already demonstrated they could shut down
parts of the country with protests and strikes, and that pressure on
the ruling EPRDF culminated in the resignation of Abiy’s predecessor
in February.

Even as they celebrate Abiy, the Oromo youth are still frustrated with
life under the EPRDF, a one-time Marxist-Leninist movement which has
controlled nearly every aspect of Ethiopians’ lives since seizing
power 27 years ago.

Frustration has sometimes turned into violence. In September, Oromo
youths were reported by Amnesty International to have carried out
deadly mob attacks on other ethnic groups near Addis Ababa. Police
said 28 died.

Elsewhere in Oromiya, young men are starting to challenge the state.
They want local officials sacked and have booed them out of rallies.

“I appreciate Abiy for the reform he brought, and blame him for not
removing those corrupt and evil killers from their positions and
bringing them to court,” said unemployed accountant Dambal Dejene, 26,
at a rally in the town of Woliso.

Abiy became prime minister in April after the EPRDF decided reforms
were essential for its survival.

His appointment was a small step towards breaking the hold of the
Tigrayan elite who have controlled the state since they took power in
1991 and founded the EPRDF as a coalition with other ethnic political
parties.

WHAT DO WE WANT?

Asked what they want from the government, more than a dozen young
Oromo men told Reuters:

“Freedom.”

“No more torture.”

“Justice.”

“Economic opportunity. Jobs.”

“End to corruption and unfair land deals.”

“Respect for our culture. Dignity.”

“Democracy.”

“Free and fair elections.”

Abiy announced reforms months ago but these have stalled in part due
to a spike in ethnic violence.

More than one million people have been forced to flee their homes
since Abiy took office. In the most serious violence, Oromo
communities have clashed with other groups.

Acknowledging a breakdown of the rule of law, the EPRDF said last
month: “Anarchy is witnessed in the country.” In a speech to
parliament, Abiy said: “Lawlessness is the norm these days. It is
something that is testing the government.” He has reshuffled his
cabinet and formed a “Ministry of Peace”.

read more









Since peaking in mid-May, foreign-exchange reserves have dropped by $5.9 billion, or 12 percent, to $42 billion.
Africa


The currency of Africa’s biggest oil producer has barely budged this
year, weakening less than 1 percent against the dollar. That compares
with 14 percent for South Africa’s rand and 4.3 percent for major
emerging-market currencies, which have been battered by the dollar’s
strength and trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The cost for Nigeria has come in the form of falling reserves and
higher bond yields needed to prop up the currency and attract
portfolio investors. Since peaking in mid-May, foreign-exchange
reserves have dropped by $5.9 billion, or 12 percent, to $42 billion.
Yields on the government’s one-year naira bills have soared more than
450 basis points in that time to 16.6 percent, the highest level this
year.
Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele is content for now. In this
environment, Nigeria has to choose between building reserves and
having a stable currency and the latter is preferable, he said last
month at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Bali.

read more


Global banks HSBC, UBS close Nigeria offices, foreign investment falls
Africa


The bank said foreign direct investment in Nigeria fell to 379.84
billion naira ($1.2 billion) in the first half of the year from 532.63
billion naira ($1.7 billion) a year earlier.
It did not given reasons for the bank closures.
HSBC was not available to comment and UBS declined to comment.
An HSBC research note dated July 18 said a second Buhari term “raises
the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal
deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term,
particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the
exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government
revenues away from oil.”

read more





The Kenyan-Chinese Trade Controversy Has Messy Consequences For The Silk Road says @AKorybko
Kenyan Economy


Acting Chinese Ambassador to Kenya Li Xuhang lashed out at his hosts
for ordering a ban on specific fish imports at the beginning of next
year that’s widely interpreted as targeting one of his East Asian
nation’s exports, supposedly describing the decision as the beginning
of a “trade war” that he warned might prompt the People’s Republic to
react to it in a similar fashion as it’s doing to the US right now.
The Daily Nation noted how this was issued after President Kenyatta
spoke about the problem that his country’s fishermen have been
experiencing in the face of heightened competition from foreign fish,
and although the decree doesn’t directly mention China as the main
reason, it’s singling out of Tilapia is surmised as implying that
Beijing is to blame for their woes given that it’s the chief exporter
of this type.

On the one hand, it’s understandable why China felt so concerned about
Kenya’s increasingly hostile political and media environments that it
decided to hold off on the second part of the SGR until tensions
cooled down, but on the other, it’s admittedly disturbing that China
might make another supposedly apolitical infrastructure financing
agreement with Kenya conditional on the recipient rescinding a very
sector-specific but nevertheless still protectionist trade policy that
it plans to implement next year. Instead of the “no-strings-attached”
low-interest developmental infrastructure loans that China’s
meticulously cultivated its reputation around providing, it now seems
that these are issued on the quid-pro-quo basis of its partners
ensuring China’s free and unrestricted access to their markets. The
implication is that making it more difficult for China to export to
any of its Silk Road partners might lead to a curtailment of Silk Road
funding.

This developing dispute isn’t occurring in a vacuum, though, but is
taking place amidst a heated “deep state” war within Kenya over the
future geostrategic direction of the country vis-à-vis China or the
US. It’s also a direct consequence of the Hybrid War on China’s Belt &
Road Initiative (BRI) and the emerging trend of “Trumpism”, as well as
the larger systemic shifts of the New Cold War, specifically as they
relate to China’s inheritance of the “New World Order”. All of this is
covered in much more contextual detail in the author’s following
analyses that should be read as reference materials for anyone who’s
interested:

The gist is that Kenya is becoming a central battleground in the US
and China’s global competition. The US is trying to incentivize some
of the country’s “deep state” to “defect” away from China, while China
is trying to retain its influence through the “trickle-down theory” of
its low-interest loans benefiting both the elite and the populace (the
first of which immediately gain while the latter do with time and
conditional on the successful completion of Silk Road projects). In
response to American strategic inroads, China has now shown a
willingness to “instrumentalize” some of its Silk Road outreach
efforts.

The course and ultimate conclusion of the Kenyan-Chinese trade
controversy will largely shape the US and China’s offensive and
defensive Hybrid War models, respectively, which is why it’s so
important to follow. The ideal win-win solution would be for China to
agree to fund the second phase of the SGR and simply look for new
markets for its fish exports, though while discretely conveying (if it
hasn’t already) that reciprocal access to one another’s markets is
mutually beneficial and will eventually help Kenya repay its SGR loans
quicker.

China shouldn’t “coerce” Kenya into anything because this would risk
contradicting its vaunted soft power image (and value-added
differentiating factor compared to its competitors) of refusing to
interfere in its partners’ domestic affairs, which will in turn
inadvertently feed into the infowar narrative that BRI is a
“weaponized neo-colonial scheme”, though it also shouldn’t stand by
idly if the situation escalates and begins to pose a threat to its
larger economic interests in the country. All in all, everything is so
sensitive that China must proceed with the utmost caution.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Shilling depreciated by 0.8% against the US Dollar during the
month of October to Kshs 101.8 from Kshs 101.0 at the end of September

read more




05-NOV-2018 :: Safaricom H1 2019 Earnings #SafaricomHYResults
Kenyan Economy


I attended the Safaricom First Half Earnings release on Friday at the
Michael Joseph Centre. I was looking forward to interviewing the
iconic CEO Bob Collymore. He said to me in our Interview

''Aly-Khan, Cancer is not a Battle, its a War.''

Make no mistake that the ''mission console'' [''The specialist is
monitoring data on his mission console'' Don Delillo's The Angel
Esmeralda] is in the hands of the CEO, wherever he might be
physically. I gently ribbed Bob about how Michael Joseph had been
kicking back [in his absence], cracking jokes and informing us about
when Bob finally started listening to him was when Safaricom finally
got its skates on. Bob, who had obviously watched everything via a
Live Feed, spoke of ''Little'' Michael and his team, finessing the
story of how Michael and a little team first started out in the
Norfolk Towers. They are clearly very close.

Of course, this set of Half Year Results covered a period that was
volatile both from an economic and a regulatory perspective. I like
CNN's Richard Quest feel the dialling higher of tax rates in what is
the most dynamic part of our Economy is actually counterproductive. By
Keeping the Tax Take static we allow this Economy to create more
velocity. Constantly dialling the Tax take higher reduces Velocity and
we are now playing at the margins. What I have also noted is that when
Agriculture [Meteorology refers] does well in Africa, the economy
performs in part because of the diffusion effect of Agriculture. And
what I heard at this Earnings Release was a lot about fine-tuning of
the $1.00 a day offering. Bob spoke of the ''Boda Boda'' driver who is
spending $1.00 a day with Safaricom in order to make $5.00.

Safaricom also announced the #Fuliza overdraft facility with CEO
@bobcollymore saying the overdraft limit might go as high as $500.00
and Safaricom will use algorithms based on transactions such as M-Pesa
deals and airtime use to set a limit on amount which can be accessed
by customers. In a World becoming increasingly data-centric, Safaricom
has a unique Platform and a unique opportunity to create scale in the
SME sector. This is a very big Deal. Safaricom has the deepest reach
and Bob said this;

''We can get a SIM card to places @CocaCola'' cant says @bobcollymore

Let me pivot back to the results. There is a wonderful Monty Python
sketch about a ''Dead Parrot'' and for eternity Folks have been
pronouncing Voice dead. Notwithstanding these yearly pronouncements,
HY Voice revenue clocked 48.03b +1.4%. The thing to consider is the
Demographic Dividend, more than a 1m potential Customers every year is
a Tail-wind.

MPesa Revenue surged +18.2% to register 35.52b and Lipa Na MPesa
spiked close to 50% and looks like its on the cusp of a Hockey stick
like breakout.  Safaricom have tweaked the MPesa Ecosystem with good
effect. They have made the MPesa garden richer [the average User is
transacting 12x a month] and have increased retention and circulation
in the Ecosystem. This is a very big Deal.

Now I expect some Folks might have expressed some disappointment at a
+10.8% HY Mobile data revenue acceleration to register 19.45b but this
would miss the point completely. Mobile Usage in MB per user surged
+67.311% to 639.8 mbs versus 382.4 mbs. That is an eye-popping surge.
Safaricom have surged mobile data, have fuelled that surge with
cheaper prices and this is what a ''dash for growth'' and [mobile
data] dominance looks like. Its a bold move and appropriate and just
what Shareholders should be happy to see. HY Fixed service revenue
[Fibre to the home] increased +21% to 3.91b and there is a big
opportunity right here as well.

Overall and at the Headline Level, Safaricom reported a +21.5%
acceleration in HY Profit before Tax to print 45.96b, HY Earnings Per
Share 0.79 +20.2%. Safaricom rallied +4.26% Friday to close at 24.50
and is -4.299% Year to Date, vastly outperforming the indices. The
Nairobi All Share -15.25% through Friday and the NSE 20 Index -24.02%.
Safaricom has corrected --27.94% off an all time high set earlier this
year. Further to what I have already outlined, Mr Collymore spoke to
the regional expansion opportunity.

''PM Abiy understands the potential of mobile payments. It will happen
in its own time. We hope to put a tick in the box at the full-year
results''

“By full year, we’ll be able to give you at least one market,”
Collymore said, without giving details. “Everyone fixates on Ethiopia,
which I think is not helpful. There are other markets that might come
up before Ethiopia.”

Safaricom Plc. intends to recruit people with mergers and acquisitions
skills for the transaction so the company can “push the agenda a
little bit faster,” Chief Executive Officer Bob Collymore said in an
interview in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi [Bloomberg]

Safaricom is a conviction Buy at Fridays closing Price of 24.50.

read more








"There's no end to African markets that could do with mobile money," @bobcollymore said. @business
Kenyan Economy


East Africa’s biggest company by market value plans to introduce its
M-Pesa mobile-money service in at least one other country by the end
of its financial year in March.
Safaricom Plc. intends to recruit people with mergers and acquisitions
skills for the transaction so the company can “push the agenda a
little bit faster,” Chief Executive Officer Bob Collymore said in an
interview in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, after announcing a 20
percent increase in first-half profit.
“By full year, we’ll be able to give you at least one market,”
Collymore said, without giving details. “Everyone fixates on Ethiopia,
which I think is not helpful. There are other markets that might come
up before Ethiopia.”
The M-Pesa service is already available in six other markets outside
Kenya including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana and Tanzania,
and is used by 34.7 million customers globally, according to Vodafone
Group Plc’s latest annual report. Similar rival services are available
in more countries across the continent.
The company could take its e-commerce platform known as Masoko, or
markets in the local Swahili language, to neighboring Ethiopia, which
has Africa’s second-largest population, Collymore said in August.
While the Ethiopian size is a huge draw, a government requirement that
Safaricom works with a local bank to roll out M-Pesa will temper
uptake, according to Tracy Kivunyu, a senior analyst at Exotix
Partners LLP.
“It doesn’t look promising from a regulatory stand-point if it’s a
bank-led model because the ability to get customer reach will be
hampered, compared to a telco-led model,” she said by phone. “Banking
penetration in Ethiopia is quite low, it will lock out a lot of
customers.”
A sale of a 35 percent stake in the Nairobi-based company to
Johannesburg-listed Vodacom Group Ltd. by parent Vodafone last year
freed Safaricom to expand M-Pesa to new sub-Saharan Africa markets.
“There’s no end to African markets that could do with mobile money,”
Collymore said.

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@SafaricomPLC reports H1 2019 EPS +20.2%
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           24.50
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        981,602,986,000
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 17.754

Safaricom HY results for the period ended 30th September 2018 vs. 30th
September 2017
HY Voice revenue 48.03b vs. 47.35b +1.4%
HY Mpesa Revenue 35.52b vs. 30.05b +18.2%
HY SMS Revenue 8.81b vs. 8.92b -1.2%
HY Mobile data revenue 19.45b vs. 17.55b +10.8%
HY Fixed service revenue 3.91b vs. 3.23b +21.0%
HY Other service revenue 2.49b vs. 2.63b -5.35
HY Service revenue 118.21b vs. 109.73b +7.7%
HY Handset revenue and other revenue 4.33b vs. 4.49b -3.5%
HY Total revenue 122.84b vs. 114.43b +7.4%
HY Other income 0.17b vs. 0.32b -47.8%
HY Direct costs [34.81b] vs. [36.07b] -3.5%
HY Contribution margin 87.90b vs. 78.47b +12.0%
HY Operating costs [25.82b] vs. [24.13b] +7.0%
HY EBITDA 62.12b vs. 54.27b +14.5%
HY Depreciation and amortization [17.56b] vs. [16.74b] +4.9%
HY EBIT 44.56b vs. 37.53b +18.7%
HY Net financing, FX and fair value losses 1.41b vs. 0.28b
HY Profit before taxation 45.96b vs. 37.82b +21.5%
HY Net income 31.50b vs. 26.20b +20.2%
EPS 0.79 vs. 0.65 +20.2%
HY Free cash flow 38.50b vs. 32.40b +18.8%

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Yields on 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day papers 7.5%, 8.4% and 9.5% respectively @CytonnInvest #cytonnreport
Kenyan Economy


The 91-day T-bill is currently trading at a yield of 7.4%, which is
below its 5-year average of 9.0%.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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