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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 12th of November 2018

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Macro Thoughts

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12-NOV-2018 :: Crude Oil, a Crown Prince plays his Get-Out-Of Jail Card and the US Mid-Terms

WTI [American] Crude Oil peaked at a 4 year high price of $76.00+ at
the beginning of October. it closed at $60.10 on Friday. WTI Crude Oil
posted a record-beating sequence of  a ten session losing streak
through Friday, something the Price of Oil has never done since
records began in 1983.  Brent Crude closed at a 4 year high of just
below $86.00 at around the same time. It closed at $70.41 on Friday.
Both Crude Oil benchmarks are in bear markets. In fact, Crude Oil and
the FANGS were a bright spot in 2018 through October until they got

On the 2nd of  October, Jamal Khashoggi, a well-known journalist and
critic of the Saudi government, walked into the country's consulate in
Istanbul. He has not been seen since. In fact, President Erdogan whose
normal modus operandi is one of bluster and braggadaccio has played
this macabre murder on Turkish soil with finesse and a little like
Yehudi Menuhin played the Violin. Its been a virtuoso performance from
a Geopolitical perspective. The drip-drip Feed has meant closure has
been all but impossible for the House of Saud or is it the House of
Salman? Erdogan's rebound from Zero [You will recall the currency was
crashing around his ears not too long ago and he was in serious ''cold
Turkey''] to Hero has been spectacular.

The Target has always been MBS, alleged owner of Leonardo Da Vinci's
Salvator Mundi which is a painting of Christ as Salvator Mundi (Latin
for "Savior of the World")  dated to c. 1500. The painting shows
Jesus, in Renaissance dress, giving a benediction with his right hand
raised and two fingers extended, while holding a transparent rock
crystal orb in his left hand. The rock crystal orb of course
reappeared during Trump's visit to the Desert Kingdom. The Painting is
currently in the Louvre in Abu Dhabi because the ''optics'' of this
$450m purchase did not sit well with being the son and heir to the
Kingdom.  The King is called the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
(خادم الحرمين الشريفين) after all. MBS is also the Proud Owner of the
Serene [yacht] which he bought for 500m Euros in 2015, while
vacationing in the south of France. Bruce Reidel alleges MBS sleeps on
the Serene off Jeddah because he too lives in fear of his life.

Mr. Khashoggi was murdered in cold blood in an obviously ''Quentin
Tarantino'' style operation. The facts as have been presented are
stranger than fiction and my question is if this is how they conduct
themselves on foreign soil, just imagine what must be going on at
home. The Image of Khashoggi's son being compelled to shake MBS's hand
is surely the most apposite metaphor for the House of Saud.

The proximity of the beginning of the bear market in Crude Oil and the
disappearance of Khashoggi is no coincidence. The Sell-Off was
''manufactured'' by the Crown Prince and was his response and an
attempt to release some of the Pressure from the [geopolitical]
Pressure Cooker. It produced a Tail-Wind [or did not allow the Price
of Gas to become a Head-Wind] for President Trump as he entered the
Mid-Terms, now behind us of course. It was actually a ''Set-Up''
Trade. It was the only Get Out of Jail Card that the Crown Prince
could play. The Question is does this keep on spinning lower under its
own momentum?

Initially the markets reacted as if the Democrat gains in the
Mid-Terms were likely to dial down the President's Tariff War. We saw
risk based assets like the ZAR rally to below 14.00, we saw ''Proxy
War'' currencies like the Australian Dollar rebound but then Mr.
Navarro [Trump's Trade Czar] said the following at a CSIS

''If Wall Street is involved and continues to insinuate itself in
these negotiations, there will be a stench around any deal that’s
consummated because it will have the imprimatur of Goldman Sachs and
Wall Street,” Mr. Navarro said in a talk at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Mr. Navarro lashed out at what he called “a self-appointed group of
Wall Street bankers and hedge-fund managers” who he described as
“globalist billionaires.”

“The mission of these unregistered foreign agents—that’s what they
are; they are unregistered foreign agents—is to pressure this
president into some kind of deal,” Mr. Navarro said.

There might not be much Christmas Cheer this year except of course for
Oil Consumers.

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OPEC edges closer to production cut as Saudi Arabia confirms it will limit supplies next month. @Schuldensuehner

OPEC edges closer to production cut as Saudi Arabia confirms it will
limit supplies next month. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said the
Kingdom was ready to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in Dec
amid a recent plunge in #oil prices.

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Peter Navarro Blasts China and Wall Street 'Globalists' @WSJ

President Trump’s senior trade adviser, Peter Navarro, excoriated
China and attacked Goldman Sachs and Wall Street as Beijing’s “unpaid
foreign agents” who are weakening the U.S. leader before his meeting
this month with China’s president.
Mr. Navarro and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are deeply
skeptical that China will make the kinds of the changes sought by the
Trump administration and urge additional tariffs.
Other officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, have been trying to
line up a deal. Mr. Trump sometimes favors one group and sometimes the
As a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping looms at the Group of 20
meeting in Buenos Aires, the economic council is coordinating what
kind of trade deal the U.S. might accept from China. It is focusing on
intellectual property, agricultural tariffs, forced technology
transfer and requirements that U.S. firms form joint ventures to
operate in China.
“If Wall Street is involved and continues to insinuate itself in these
negotiations, there will be a stench around any deal that’s
consummated because it will have the imprimatur of Goldman Sachs and
Wall Street,” Mr. Navarro said in a talk at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, a Washington think tank. He didn’t provide
any evidence to back up his claims. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
spokesman declined to comment.
Mr. Navarro lashed out at what he called “a self-appointed group of
Wall Street bankers and hedge-fund managers” who he described as
“globalist billionaires.”
“The mission of these unregistered foreign agents—that’s what they
are; they are unregistered foreign agents—is to pressure this
president into some kind of deal,” Mr. Navarro said.

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"The men are scared of me because they think I have a lot of magical powers," she says. @TheEconomist

Each morning, Maoua Koné (pictured) wakes beneath the black-eyed gaze
of masks and marionettes on the walls of her cramped one-room flat in
Bamako. When Ms Koné, Mali’s only female marionettist, manipulates the
shiny forms, her male counterparts tremble. “The men are scared of me
because they think I have a lot of magical powers,” she says. “They
think it is not possible for a woman to be a marionettist.” Her career
has overcome chauvinism, only to be stifled by another stubborn
obstacle: violent conflict.

“O youth! youth! you go your way heedless, uncaring – as if you owned
all the treasures of the world; even grief elates you, even sorrow
sits well upon your brow''

“O youth! youth! you go your way heedless, uncaring – as if you owned
all the treasures of the world; even grief elates you, even sorrow
sits well upon your brow. You are self-confident and insolent and you
say, 'I alone am alive – behold!' even while your own days fly past
and vanish without trace and without number, and everything within you
melts away like wax in the sun .. like snow .. and perhaps the whole
secret of your enchantment lies not, indeed, in your power to do
whatever you may will, but in your power to think that there is
nothing you will not do: it is this that you scatter to the winds –

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"People went from broad to narrow," he said, "and we think they will continue to go that way - spend more and more time in the niches - because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness." @NewYorker

the dawning age of Internet video, bringing channels by the tens of
thousands. “People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think
they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the
niches—because now the distribution landscape allows for more

People prefer niches because “the experience is more immersive,” Kyncl
went on. “For example, there’s no horseback-riding channel on cable.
Plenty of people love horseback riding, and there’s plenty of
advertisers who would like to market to them, but there’s no channel
for it, because of the costs. You have to program a 24/7 loop, and you
need a transponder to get your signal up on the satellite. With the
Internet, everything is on demand, so you don’t have to program 24/7—a
few hours is all you need.”

Political Reflections

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Sultan of Oman emerges as new power broker in the Middle East @thetimes
Law & Politics

The Sultanate of Oman, a country whose geopolitical significance has
always belied its palm tree-lined image as a land more suited to
fairytales, is once again at the centre of international intrigue.
For the past two years it has been left out in the cold, its
traditional role as a middle man collateral damage in the Trump
administration’s war against President Obama, because of its central
part in setting up the Iran nuclear deal.
Now, unexpected but apparently long-planned visits by Israel’s prime
minister and intelligence minister, coupled with the opening of the
first British army base east of Suez for decades, is placing it front
and centre of plans to stop the Middle East falling apart.
Oman’s warm ties with Iran set it apart from its neighbours. This is
why, according to analysts, the visit and its publicity were long
discussed with Washington, and are intended to send a wider message.
“The next visit by an Iranian leader to Oman will be seen in this
context,” Sigurd Neubauer, an analyst of Omani politics, said. “That’s
an extraordinary achievement by Sultan Qaboos.”
He said that the publicity given to Mr Netanyahu’s visit was a message
not only to Iran but a commitment to Israel that in future it would be
consulted rather than cut out of talks with Tehran.
Oman’s complex role as a mediator in the region, particularly with
Iran, is in its national DNA. Unlike the Salafi Sunnis of Saudi
Arabia, or the Zaydi Shias who have a large presence in neighbouring
Yemen, Oman pursues a quietist form of Islam known as Ibadism. With no
pretensions to lead the Islamic world and a history of sea-faring and
trading, the country believes it can deal happily with neighbours that
have set themselves at odds.
“The Arab world is getting more and more dangerous and unstable,” he
said. “Qaboos’s decision to invite Netanyahu was nothing short of an
intervention to restore the balance of power.”
Sultan Qaboos came to power in 1970 after the British dislodged his
father, an irredeemable conservative. Sultan Said lived by the motto
“keep the dogs hungry and they will follow you” and objected to
hospitals because they would lead to the country becoming
He is an enthusiast of classical music, ballet and ham radio. Muscat
is home to the Gulf’s first opera house and has an active amateur
radio association, an activity regarded with suspicion elsewhere in
the Arab world.
Aged 77, he is suffering from cancer, but has not named an heir.
According to diplomats, the accepted arrangement in the event of his
death is that the royal court will try to decide which of his two
cousins will succeed him.
If not, his personal secretary will remove an envelope from a secret
location in his palace, in which a letter will be found confirming his

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U.S. presses China to halt militarization of South China Sea @Reuters
Law & Politics

Standing side by side, top U.S. officials urged their Chinese
counterparts on Friday to halt militarization of the disputed South
China Sea, drawing a rebuke from the Chinese for sending U.S. warships
close to islands claimed by Beijing.
“The United States is not pursuing a Cold War or containment policy
with respect to China,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a
joint news conference.
The meeting paired Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis with
Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe.
The annual U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue was originally
set for Beijing last month but had been called off amid rising
Pompeo took aim at China over its continued building of military
installations on artificial islands and reefs in the South China Sea,
where China insists it has sovereignty despite competing claims from
some smaller neighbors.
“We have continued concerns about China’s activities and
militarization in the South China Sea,” Pompeo said following the
talks. “We pressed China to live up to its past commitments in this
Yang said China was committed to “non-confrontation” but that Beijing
had the right to build “necessary defense facilities” on what it
considers its own territory and urged Washington to stop sending
warships and military planes close to the islands that Beijing claims.
Responding sharply to Pompeo’s mention of Taiwan, which China
considers a wayward province but which is armed by Washington, Wei
said Beijing would defend its claim on the island “at any cost.”
Pompeo also reiterated U.S. criticism of China’s “repression of
religious groups,” citing treatment of Buddhists in Tibet and minority
Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region that has drawn condemnation from
human rights groups.
Yang defended China’s policies in Xinjiang as measures against “ethnic
separatist activities and violent terrorist crimes” but said it was a
Chinese internal affair and foreign governments should not interfere.

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India-Pakistan Relations: Nuclear Doctrine, Militarization and Security Dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics

The Indian Ocean is a global common and is named after India in
geographical sense but New Delhi has lately started self-believing
that this Middle Eastern cum Afro-Asian oceanic expanse is India’s
backyard. India is the first South Asian littoral State that is
introducing nuclear weapons into this Ocean. Like India nuclearized
South Asia in 1974, the onus of provoking a response in the Indian
Ocean rests with it.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1328
Dollar Index 96.90
Japan Yen 114.00
Swiss Franc 1.0058
Pound 1.2941
Aussie 0.7234
India Rupee 72.48
South Korea Won 1131.27
Brazil Real 3.7336
Egypt Pound 17.8530
South Africa Rand 14.3123

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A New King for the Congo V.S. Naipaul @nybooks

The man who has made himself king of this land of the three Zs—pays,
fleuve, monnaie—used to be called Joseph Mobutu. His father was a
cook. But Joseph Mobutu was educated; he was at some time, in the
Belgian days, a journalist. In 1960, when the country became
independent, Mobutu was thirty, a sergeant in the local Force
Publique. The Force Publique became the Congolese National Army.
Mobutu became the colonel and commander, and through the mutinies,
rebellions, and secessions of the years after independence he retained
the loyalty of one paratroop brigade. In 1965, as General Mobutu, he
seized power; and as he has imposed order on the army and the country
so his style has changed, and become more African. He has abandoned
the name of Joseph and is now known as Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu
Wa Za Banga.

Mobutu wears flowered shirts. Always, in public, he wears a
leopard-skin cap and carries an elaborately carved stick.

These—the cap and the stick—are the emblems of his African
chieftaincy. Only the chief can kill the leopard. The stick is carved
with symbolic figures: two birds, what looks like a snake, a human
figure with a distended belly. No Zairois I met could explain the
symbolism. One teacher pretended not to know what was carved, and
said, “We would all like to have sticks like that.” In some local
carving, though, the belly of the human figure is distended because it
contains the fetish. The stick is accepted by Zairois as the stick of
the chief. While the chief holds the stick off the ground the people
around him can speak; when the chief sets his stick on the ground the
people fall silent and the chief gives his decision.

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The Democratic Republic of Congo's main opposition leaders named Martin Fayulu as their surprise joint presidential candidate for next month's election.

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s main opposition leaders named
Martin Fayulu as their surprise joint presidential candidate for next
month’s election.
The opposition had been expected to select from two better-known
leaders: Felix Tshisekedi, head of the biggest opposition party, or
Vital Kamerhe, who finished third in a 2011 vote. Fayulu will face
President Joseph Kabila’s anointed successor, Emmanuel Ramazani
Shadary, in the Dec. 23 ballot.
The choice was announced at a briefing Sunday in Geneva by Freddy
Matungulu, a fellow presidential candidate and leader of the Congo Na
Biso party. Fayulu is one of seven opposition heads who last month
agreed to field a single candidate to maximize their chances of
defeating Shadary.
”The people need leaders who will bring them development, who will
bring them prosperity and we seven here, we are committed to achieving
this work,” Fayulu said at the briefing.
Congo is the world’s main source of cobalt and Africa’s biggest copper
producer. It hasn’t had a peaceful or democratic transfer of power
since it gained independence in 1960.
Fayulu, 61, is a lawmaker and the leader of the Engagement for
Citizenship and Development party. He finished fourth with 8 percent
in an opinion poll published late last month by New York University’s
Congo Research Group. Tshisekedi topped the survey with 36 percent,
while Kamerhe and Shadary were second and third respectively with 17
percent and 16 percent.
In addition to Fayulu, Tshisekedi, Kamerhe and Matungulu -- who
successfully registered in August to run for the presidency -- three
other leaders participated in the Swiss negotiations. Among them were
opposition heavyweights Jean-Pierre Bemba, who was disqualified by the
electoral commission, and Moise Katumbi, who is in exile and was
prevented from returning home to file his candidacy.

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Economic turmoil is unavoidable in Mnangagwa's Zimbabwe @issafrica

October’s economic turmoil in Zimbabwe has again highlighted the
precarious state of the country’s economy. A casual social media post
or imprudent policy statement by a government official is enough to
cause panic among Zimbabwean consumers who know from bitter experience
that if others are panic-buying, they should do the same. The result
is shortages of basic commodities like sugar, cooking oil and bread
and, of course, fuel and medication.

At the heart of the problem is government overspending. The profligacy
of the Mugabe administration has not changed under President Emmerson
Mnangagwa’s government. The total budget deficit for the year is
expected to surpass US$2.3 billion – quite impressive for a country
with a tiny national budget of US$3.8bn.

The deficit is funded by the issuance of government bonds – primarily
treasury bills. The problem with these ‘IOUs’ from government to the
banks comes when the bills mature, i.e. become payable, after one or
two years.

The government simply doesn’t have the money to pay the debts. But a
default would render the $8.3bn worth of treasury bills out there
almost valueless, destabilise the entire financial system and
foreclose the bills as a way of raising money by government.

Previously, government dealt with the problem by printing money – a
temporary escape route that closed when the currency became worthless
as a result and the country was forced to dollarise. The ‘solution’
now is through the simple expedient of directing the Reserve Bank to
make book entries into the credit columns of banks holding maturing
treasury bills. The credit is not backed by anything other than a
second IOU from government to the Reserve Bank.

In this way ‘money’ is created from thin air. But it never loses its
ethereal form. When depositors go to banks and put their cards into
ATMs, nothing comes out. The banks advise that the depositors must
make do with electronic transfers for all transactions. The transfers
are done through the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) clearance

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Deterioration of Civil Liberties and Human Rights in Tanzania (from @StateDept) @HeatherNauert

The United States government is deeply concerned over escalating
attacks and legislative actions by the Government of Tanzania that
violate civil liberties and human rights, creating an atmosphere of
violence, intimidation, and discrimination. We are troubled by the
continued arrests and harassment of marginalized persons, including
lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people, and others who seek to
exercise their rights to freedom of speech, association and assembly.
Legislation is being used to restrict civil liberties for all.

The deteriorating state of human rights and rule of law in Tanzania
inhibits development, economic prosperity, peace, and security. We
call on Tanzanian authorities to act decisively to safeguard the
rights of civil society organizations, human rights defenders,
journalists, health workers, political activists, and all people in
accordance with the Tanzanian constitution, the African Charter on
Human and People’s Rights, and the country’s international and
regional obligations and commitments.

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Tanzania Issues Ultimatum to Cashew Traders to Buy From Farmers @markets

Tanzania gave cashews traders four days to purchase the nuts directly
from farmers at a price recommended by the government or have their
licenses revoked.

Cashews are Tanzania’s most valuable export crop after tobacco and
falling prices prompted farmers to halt sales after operational costs
rose above earnings. President John Magufuli subsequently set a
3,000-shilling ($1.30) per kilogram (2.2 pounds) minimum rate on Oct.
26, raising the price from the 1,550 shillings recommended by the
industry regulator, which led to a trader boycott at auctions.

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Chinese firm seeks Sh2bn after mineral deal freeze @BD_Africa

The Chinese firm, Geological Exploration Technology Institute (Geti),
has billed the government an amount equivalent to 30 percent of the
contract, which was quoted at Sh6.7 billion.
The invoice follows the government freezing the mapping contract and
instead opting for the survey to be done by local geologists and the
National Intelligence Service (NIS).
“The ministry is yet to honour payment of 30 percent of the initial
contract sum as invoiced for lack of adequate budgetary provision,”
Petroleum and Mining Cabinet Secretary John Munyes told Parliament.
Mr Munyes said the Sh1.3 billion in the printed estimates of the year
ending June 2018 was inadequate to pay the bill.
Treasury did not honour a further request to increase the allocation
to Sh2 billion to allow the ministry pay GETI, despite existence of a
commercial contract between the ministry and the contractor signed on
May 19, 2014.

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Geothermal energy will boost Kenya's industrialisation bid @KenGenKenya's @rebecca_miano in @BD_Africa

In December 2017, President Uhuru Kenyatta unveiled his five-year plan
christened the Big Four Agenda, which he promised to dedicate his
time, energy and resources to ensure they are achieved.
The plan is focused on creating 1.3 million manufacturing jobs by
2022, achieving 100 per cent health coverage, expanding food
production and building 500,000 affordable houses for Kenyans.
This way, Kenyans will be able to get employment, and the economy will
grow further too.
In order for Kenya to deliver on the Big Four Agenda, there is a need
to have in place affordable and reliable energy. KenGen, the country’s
leading energy producer, has already plugged into this agenda and is
undertaking projects with a total capacity of 720MW to be completed by
2020. Within the next 10 years, the company intends to add an
additional 2,569MW to the national grid which will comprise of 2,029MW
of geothermal power; 410MW of wind power; 90MW of hydro power and 40
MW of solar photovoltaic power.
Kenya’s geothermal future is bright and a 2016 report by Britain’s
Economist Intelligence Unit concurs.
“Falling technological costs, ambitious targets, resource abundance, a
pipeline of high-quality projects and support of international donor
partners are driving the roll-out of renewable power in Africa.
Countries can look to positive experiences in lead markets like South
Africa and Kenya for strategies and best practices,” the report says
in part. The latest Renewables 2018 Global Status Report places Kenya
among countries with the largest amount of geothermal power generating
capacity, listing it alongside the United States, the Philippines,
Indonesia, Turkey, New Zealand, Mexico, Italy, Iceland and Japan.
The global report estimates the total geothermal power generation
capacity to be 12.8GW.
Indeed, countries which have harnessed geothermal energy are enjoying
great benefits. According to Jeff Tester, a Professor of Sustainable
Energy Systems at Cornell University College of Engineering, Iceland
has been able to transform from dependence on imported fossil fuel to
renewable energy supply for its electricity and heating.
It achieved this by integrating its geothermal and hydro resources.
The United States, one of the world’s largest economies, has an
installed capacity of 3,200MW which is equivalent to three nuclear
power plants. The Philippines generates 23 per cent of its electricity
from geothermal energy which translates to 13 per cent of the
country’s power mix, while Indonesia has an installed geothermal power
capacity of 1,800MW.
Being aware of the goldmine at hand, Kenya has embarked on a strategic
plan to enhance the production of geothermal energy. On the ground is
a team comprising project planning experts, geoscientists,
infrastructure engineers, environment, health and safety specialists,
drilling engineers, logistics experts, equipment maintenance
engineers, plant operation engineers and reservoir and steam field
Also at hand are experts on geothermal energy development who are
tasked with the role of advising the country based on their vast
Rebecca Miano, MD KenGen.

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@KenGenKenya share price data

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           7.20
Total Shares Issued:          6243873667.00
Market Capitalization:        44,955,890,402
EPS:             1.2
PE:                 6.000

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2018

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