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Macro Thoughts

“The technologies that banks use today that Swift developed decades
ago really hasn’t evolved or kept up with the market,” Garlinghouse
said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Haslinda Amin on the
sidelines of an event in Singapore. “Swift said not that long ago they
didn’t see blockchain as a solution to correspondent banking. We’ve
got well over 100 of their customers saying they disagree.”

Ripple Labs has more than 100 banks and payment providers on its
RippleNet network, including Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
Inc., Standard Chartered Plc and others, according to its website.
Garlinghouse also said that speculation within the blockchain industry
of a potential link-up between Ripple and Swift wasn’t true.

“What we’re doing and executing on a day-by-day basis is, in fact,
taking over Swift,” he said.

For 2018, the portfolio will look to be short bitcoin on a tactical
basis. Against that bitcoin short, I will hold a small long in ripple,
which is another crypto-currency, which looks like it might become a
serious payments platform

Therefore, if you are playing this game, You have to be constantly
sifting the Signal from the Noise, You have to be prepared to pivot on
a dime and at this moment You need to be studying the behaviour of the
''Millenial'' crowd.

Home Thoughts

His most coveted works, mainly paintings dating from 1961 to 1965, are
a bulletproof asset class of the present art market.
Genius entails luck: right place, right time. Warhol’s coincided with
the all-time peak of American global power, economic upward mobility,
cultural self-infatuation, and idealistic impatience. Improvement
couldn’t come fast enough for a generation steeped in postwar
triumphalism and dreams of liberty. In art, an old anxious
provincialism, fixated on Paris, had been swept away. What had we
here? Sensing the surge, Warhol canvassed sophisticated friends in the
fields of both art and commerce for ideas. After one suggested money,
Warhol duly painted dollar bills. He asked others, in 1961, to vote on
two paintings that he had made of a Coca-Cola bottle, the first in an
expressively brushy style and the second shockingly stark, as if
machine-made. They smartly plumped for the latter. Warhol’s notion of
picturing subjects serially—not one Coke but row upon row of Cokes,
every variety of Campbell’s soup, all but innumerable Marilyn
Monroes—was his own, keyed to an emerging economy of brands that
extended to celebrities. His indelible conception of fifteen-minute
fame expressed the insight that the right manner of regarding things
and people could generate effects of charisma. He adapted the dynamic
of the New York School’s monumental paintings: monochromatic expanses,
occasioning awe, like those of Barnett Newman, overlaid with moodily
imperfect silk-screened photography of grisly car crashes, say, or the
preternaturally beautiful face of Elizabeth Taylor, each fearsome in a
peculiar way.

Theresa May on Monday night declared that Brexit negotiations were “in
the endgame”.

Mrs May said in a speech at the Guildhall in London that EU and UK
negotiators were “working extremely hard, through the night” to get a
deal, while in Downing Street her officials briefed cabinet ministers
on the latest state of talks.

Although Mrs May wants to finalise a deal at a special European
Council meeting later this month, she said the issues being addressed
were “extremely difficult”. Downing Street said there were no plans
for discussions on a final text at Tuesday’s cabinet.

Poetry? Proverb? Cliche? “Hope springs eternal” is part of a rhyming
couplet from An Essay on Man by the poet Alexander Pope, a central
figure in the Neoclassical movement of the early 18th century.
Hope springs eternal in the human breast,
Man never is, but always to be blest …
Poetic sentiments which appear to mirror a softening in the diplomatic
rhetoric between China and the United States as the trade war drags on
into the winter.

Initially the markets reacted as if the Democrat gains in the
Mid-Terms were likely to dial down the President's Tariff War. We saw
risk based assets like the ZAR rally to below 14.00, we saw ''Proxy
War'' currencies like the Australian Dollar rebound but then Mr.
Navarro [Trump's Trade Czar] said the following at a CSIS
presentation.
''If Wall Street is involved and continues to insinuate itself in
these negotiations, there will be a stench around any deal that’s
consummated because it will have the imprimatur of Goldman Sachs and
Wall Street,” Mr. Navarro said in a talk at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
Mr. Navarro lashed out at what he called “a self-appointed group of
Wall Street bankers and hedge-fund managers” who he described as
“globalist billionaires.”
“The mission of these unregistered foreign agents—that’s what they
are; they are unregistered foreign agents—is to pressure this
president into some kind of deal,” Mr. Navarro said.

The rulers of Saudi Arabia derive much of their legitimacy and
prestige in the Muslim world from their control and upkeep of the
Grand Mosque and the Kaaba in Mecca and the mosque of Prophet Muhammad
in Medina. King Salman, like the rulers before him, wears the title of
the “Khadim al-Ḥaramayn as-Sarifayn,” which is translated as the
“Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques” or, more precisely, “The Servant
of the Two Noble Sanctuaries.”
Despite the humility of the royal title, the Saudi monarchy has a long
history of exploiting the podium of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by using
its imams to praise, sanctify and defend the rulers and their actions.
In the aftermath of the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, as
the world’s accusatory gaze was transfixed on Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, the Saudi monarchy has again used the Grand Mosque to defend
and deify the crown prince in a manner that makes its legitimacy and
control of Mecca and Medina morally troubling like never before.
Imam Sudais delivered a troubling sermon, violating the sanctity of
the sacred space he occupied. He referenced a saying attributed to
Prophet Muhammad that once every century, God sends a mujtahid, a
great reformer to reclaim or reinvigorate the faith. He explained that
the mujtahid is needed to address the unique challenges of each age.
He proceeded to extol Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a divine gift to
Muslims and implied that the crown prince was the mujtahid sent by God
to revive the Islamic faith in our age. “The path of reform and
modernization in this blessed land … through the care and attention
from its young, ambitious, divinely inspired reformer crown prince,
continues to blaze forward guided by his vision of innovation and
insightful modernism, despite all the failed pressures and threats,”
the imam declared, from the podium where Prophet Muhammad delivered
his last sermon.
He cautioned that the attacks against “these blessed lands” are a
provocation and offense to more than a billion Muslims. Imam Sudais
used the word “muhaddath,” or “uniquely and singularly gifted” to
describe Prince Mohammed. “Muhaddath” was the title given by Prophet
Muhammad to Umar Ibn al-Khattab, his companion and the second caliph
of Islam. The imam implicitly compared the crown prince to Caliph
Umar.
Saudi clerics had never weaponized the podium of the prophet at the
Grand Mosque so brazenly to serve the monarchy. No imam of the Grand
Mosque had ever anointed a Saudi ruler as the mujtahid of the age or
dared to imply as much.
When an imam of the Grand Mosque calls upon Muslims to obediently
accept Prince Mohammed’s incredulous narrative about the murder of Mr.
Khashoggi; to accept his abduction, jailing and torture of dissenters,
including imprisonment of several revered Islamic scholars; to ignore
his pitiless and cruel war in Yemen, his undermining the democratic
dreams in the Arab world, his support for the oppressive dictatorship
in Egypt, it makes it impossible to accept the imam’s categorization
of the crown prince as a divinely inspired reformer. The sanctified
podium of the prophet in Mecca is being desecrated and defiled.

12-NOV-2018 :: The King is called the Custodian of the Two Holy
Mosques (خادم الحرمين الشريفين) after all
http://bit.ly/2FkM5T5

The Target has always been MBS, alleged owner of Leonardo Da Vinci's
Salvator Mundi which is a painting of Christ as Salvator Mundi (Latin
for "Savior of the World")  dated to c. 1500. The painting shows
Jesus, in Renaissance dress, giving a benediction with his right hand
raised and two fingers extended, while holding a transparent rock
crystal orb in his left hand. The rock crystal orb of course
reappeared during Trump's visit to the Desert Kingdom. The Painting is
currently in the Louvre in Abu Dhabi because the ''optics'' of this
$450m purchase did not sit well with being the son and heir to the
Kingdom.  The King is called the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
(خادم الحرمين الشريفين) after all. MBS is also the Proud Owner of the
Serene [yacht] which he bought for 500m Euros in 2015, while
vacationing in the south of France. Bruce Reidel alleges MBS sleeps on
the Serene off Jeddah because he too lives in fear of his life.

Salvini abhors the Brussels system. Macron is stepping up his defense
of a “sovereign Europe.”

The Timing of that rocket attack is the open question

Euro 1.1290
Dollar Index 97.06
Japan Yen 113.93
Swiss Franc 1.0068
Pound 1.2992
Aussie 0.7221
India Rupee 72.615
South Korea Won 1131.77
Brazil Real 3.8030
Egypt Pound 17.9100
South Africa Rand 14.4441

Fresh highs for $GBPUSD as Brexit gauge swings further to the
positive. 1.2966 the new hi, gap'ers will be happy that Mon gap is
closed. 1.2975/80 area is the next res, ahead of 1.30. We're still
always only one headline away from it all going south again.

Dips below $59/barrel, now lost 23% in just over a month.

WTI [American] Crude Oil peaked at a 4 year high price of $76.00+ at
the beginning of October. it closed at $60.10 on Friday. WTI Crude Oil
posted a record-beating sequence of  a ten session losing streak
through Friday, something the Price of Oil has never done since
records began in 1983.  Brent Crude closed at a 4 year high of just
below $86.00 at around the same time. It closed at $70.41 on Friday.
Both Crude Oil benchmarks are in bear markets. In fact, Crude Oil and
the FANGS were a bright spot in 2018 through October until they got
destroyed.

Mr. Khashoggi was murdered in cold blood in an obviously ''Quentin
Tarantino'' style operation. The facts as have been presented are
stranger than fiction and my question is if this is how they conduct
themselves on foreign soil, just imagine what must be going on at
home. The Image of Khashoggi's son being compelled to shake MBS's hand
is surely the most apposite metaphor for the House of Saud.

The proximity of the beginning of the bear market in Crude Oil and the
disappearance of Khashoggi is no coincidence. The Sell-Off was
''manufactured'' by the Crown Prince and was his response and an
attempt to release some of the Pressure from the [geopolitical]
Pressure Cooker. It produced a Tail-Wind [or did not allow the Price
of Gas to become a Head-Wind] for President Trump as he entered the
Mid-Terms, now behind us of course. It was actually a ''Set-Up''
Trade. It was the only Get Out of Jail Card that the Crown Prince
could play. The Question is does this keep on spinning lower under its
own momentum?

Frontier Markets

Congo’s opposition has never been able to present a united front in
elections, yet repeated pledges to nominate a joint candidate this
year raised hopes among government opponents that regime change was on
the cards. The surprise announcement that the relatively unknown
Martin Fayulu would head the opposition ticket was made on Sunday, but
presidential hopefuls Felix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe backtracked
on it the following day. While Congolese analyst Tshitenge Lubabu
called the decision to name Fayulu a “monumental mistake,” others said
it made sense to pick a consensus candidate.
The chances of the opposition parties ironing out their differences
are negligible, and if their alliance fractures further, Fayulu’s
chances of defeating Shadary will grow even slimmer. As things stand
he’ll need to keep the backing from both Bemba and Katumbi to have
even a remote change of winning. Official campaigning is due to get
under way on Nov. 22

The uncertainty surrounding Bongo has Gabonese speculating on social
media what lies ahead in OPEC’s second-smallest oil producer. He’s
been in power since 2009, when he won disputed elections to succeed
his father Omar Bongo, who died of heart failure in a Barcelona clinic
after ruling for more than four decades. In January he pushed
constitutional changes through parliament that expanded his already
far-reaching powers.
Foreign investors have also been unnerved. Gabon’s Eurobonds are the
worst performers in Africa this month, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. Yields on the nation’s $700 million of notes maturing in
2025 rose 4 basis points to 8.8 percent by 10:27 a.m. in London, their
highest since Aug. 20.
If the president is incapacitated, the constitution stipulates that
the speaker of the Senate take over his duties until elections are
held within 60 days. This happened in 2009 to allow for the ruling
Gabonese Democratic Party to name Ali Bongo as its candidate in the
vote.
Key figures who are likely to play a role in orchestrating a
succession are Frederic Bongo, a half-brother of Ali who heads the
Republican Guard’s intelligence service, and Prime Minister Emmanuel
Issoze-Ngondet, according to opposition activist Michel Ongoundou.

"That trend would indicate that we are not yet Uhuru," said Jamela,
using the popular Swahili word for freedom. "We have a long road
ahead."

Inflation rate jumped to 20.9% in October from 5.4% before
Price of food, biggest component of inflation basket, surged

The ZimBollar Adjusted CPI index (ZACPI) stands at 244%. Using the
ZACPI, prices have gone up by 3.44 times from October 2017 to date.

Following the announcement today of the arrest of at least 36 key
security officials suspected to be responsible for gross human rights
violations in Ethiopia, Amnesty International’s Director for East
Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes, Joan Nyanyuki said:
Many of these officials were at the helm of government agencies
infamous for perpetrating gross human rights violations such as
torture and the arbitrary detention of people including in secret
facilities.  Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International Director for East
Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes

.@Reuters has not been able to contact METEC for comment - senior
public relations officials were among those arrested
“It would be a recipe for conflict to go against these big fish
without consent, or some bargaining from the TPLF,” said one Ethiopian
analyst who declined to be named.

Within weeks of Abiy taking charge, Berhanu ordered the armed group he
led, Ginbot 7, to stop attacking Ethiopian troops and end its armed
struggle.
Abiy’s arrival “was real change,” Berhanu said. “It did not take us a
minute... We have no particular interests in violence. We just said:
‘Are you serious, is this something you are committed to? Yes, good,
we are done’.”
Ethiopia’s new leader, Berhanu said, “really has this mission of
changing society toward what he believes the public deserves: to live
in freedom and democracy.”
“At the macro level, change always generates this unsettled feeling.
There’s a lot of anxiety,” he said, referring to the ethnic violence
that has displaced one million Ethiopians in the seven months since
Abiy took office.
“We are coming out of a regime not only known for its brutality but
also for deliberately dividing society.”
“We’ve screwed two changes,”, he said, referring to 1974, when members
of the military toppled Emperor Haile Selassie, and 1991, when rebels
deposed the military regime. “If we screw this one, then that’s it. I
really don’t believe we have another chance.”

He is evidently a Virilian and Gladwellian Figure.

“To create one contagious movement, you often have to create many
small movements first.” “Look at the world around you. It may seem
like an immovable, implacable place. It is not, With the slightest
push—in just the right place—it can be tipped.”—Malcolm Gladwell .

Vodacom is eyeing an entry into Ethiopia, Africa’s fastest-growing and
second-most populous country, in partnership with its Kenyan associate
company, Safaricom, CEO Shameel Joosub says.
The East African state, which said in June that it  will open its
state-run telecoms monopoly to foreign investors, is “probably the
most attractive” potential new market for Vodacom, Joosub told
Business Day on Monday after the group reported a slowdown in revenue
growth in SA, its home market.
“But the opportunities are not that clear yet — there are indications
that Ethiopia will issue additional licences, and potentially take in
a strategic partner for the existing [government-owned] Ethio Telecom,
but there’s nothing yet in terms of actual processes and so on,”
Joosub said.
The East African nation of 105-million people is Africa’s most
populous country after Nigeria, and has one of the most closed and
controlled economies on the continent. SA has about 55-million people.
The IMF expects Ethiopia to have the fastest-growing economy in
Sub-Saharan Africa in 2018, with growth at 8.5%. The SA economy,
meanwhile, has been in recession, meaning growth has been tough for
network operators.
Vodacom’s total revenues in SA rose 4.3% to R35.3bn in the six months
to September, down from 7.7% recorded a year before. Data revenue
growth halved to 7.5%.
The tepid growth in data revenues is probably behind the 7.69% decline
to R120.30 in Vodacom’s share price on Monday, said Mergence
Investment Managers portfolio manager Peter Takaendesa. It is the
biggest one-day drop since September 2017, and brings its decline for
the year to 17.4%.
Joosub said the slowdown in data revenue growth is likely to be “a
temporary dip” and the rate “should accelerate back to double-digit
growth over time”.
“Overall, it’s still a strong set of results in SA. The subdued data
growth I think was more a deliberate move on our part to reprice and
also deal with the out-of-bundle issue,” Joosub said.
Vodacom has operations in Mozambique, Lesotho, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Tanzania and Kenya.
The Independent Communications Authority of SA (Icasa) recently
published new rules governing the expiry of data bundles.
When data prices are lowered — Joosub said the effective price of data
declined 16.4% during the period — demand tends to pick up to
compensate after about four months, he says.
Meanwhile, Joosub said he expects a competitive bidding process when
regulators finally auction off 4G spectrum in SA.
Icasa plans to auction batches of radio frequencies for 4G services by
April 2019, and simultaneously establish a wholesale open-access
network (Woan).
“The competition between the existing partners will depend on where
you set the reserve price and on the attractiveness of the SA market
for international players — whether they are willing to come in and
invest,” Joosub said.
However, operators will also be able to access spectrum via the Woan.
Joosub said there are inconsistencies between the directive given to
Icasa regarding the auction and the new Electronic Communications
Amendment Bill.
“If you’re going to pay for the spectrum, there needs to be certain
rights attached to it, but that’s not necessarily the case if you
don’t pay for it in the Woan.”

November 8, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan has welcomed on Thursday the
agreement reached Tuesday with the U.S. administration over the lift
of its names from the list of state sponsors of terrorism with the
launch of the “Phase II” framework for the normalization of bilateral
relations.
The State Department on Wednesday announced that the two countries
agreed on a six-point plan that if Sudan implements successfully would
lead to "initiate the process of rescinding Sudan’s designation as a
State Sponsor of Terrorism".
"Sudan welcomes the launching of Phase II of the strategic dialogue
between the two sides. It which was designed to expand bilateral
cooperation and achieve further progress in a number of areas of
common interest, especially after the success of the First Phase,
which culminated in the lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan," said
the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson on Thursday.
Sudan, also, welcomes the United States’ willingness to cancelling the
designation of Sudan as a State Sponsor of Terrorism and to enhance
relations and cooperation between the two countries, added the
statement
Khartoum "confirms its readiness and willingness to engage in Phase
II," he concluded.
The State Department the agreed six areas "include expanding
counterterrorism cooperation, enhancing human rights protections and
practices, including freedoms of religion and press, improving
humanitarian access, ceasing internal hostilities and creating a more
conducive environment for progress in Sudan’s peace process, taking
steps to address certain outstanding terrorism-related claims, and
adhering to UN Security Council resolutions related to North Korea".
U.S. officials emphasize that the implementation of the internal
reforms such as human rights, freedoms, and the unilateral cessation
of hostilities are crucial for the removal process.
The administration is required by law to conduct a six-month review of
whether a country deserves to be on the state sponsors of terrorism
list. However, neither the State Department nor the Sudanese foreign
ministry mentioned a term for the final decision.

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.4441
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.91
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -15.93% 2018
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +4.35% 2018
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Cement sale has fallen by 5.4 million bags in the past nine months
equivalent to billions of shillings, indicating a cooling off in the
construction industry.
According to Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for October by the Kenya
National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), slow consumption of cement means
fewer jobs, lower investments in the construction sector and hence
lower spending in purchase for construction projects.
This is a continuation of the slump that characterised the prolonged
electioneering period last year that saw many delay investment hoping
2018 would be a better year.
“The biggest consumer of cement and other products is the government
but it has even withheld payments for many private contractors now
unwilling to take up new jobs,” said Town and County Planners
Association of Kenya chairman Mairura Omwenga.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -14.26% 2018
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -23.77% 2018
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

There is a lot going on internationally.
Theresa May declared that Brexit negotiations were “in the endgame”.
Sterling surged above $1.30 for its second biggest gain of the year
before giving up some gains to trade at 1.2947 Last.
The Question is whether the Party will give its imprimatur to the deal.
REES-MOGG: U.K. CABINET SHOULD REJECT MAY'S BREXIT DEAL
JOHNSON SAYS MAY'S BREXIT DEAL IS `VASSAL STATE'
WTI Crude which had fallen from $76.00+ a barrel in Early October and
then crumbled to as low as $54.88 this morning is bouncing.
Whether its a ''dead cat bounce'' we will discover in due course.
Zimbabwe's ZimStats reported that YoY Inflation jumped to 20.85% in
October 2018- the highest official inflation rate since Dollarisation.
@ZimBollar
Here in Kenya Business Daily reported ''Cement sale[s] has fallen by
5.4 million bags in the past nine months''
And they also reported that Kenya Airways has reduced its New York
Flight frequency.
The Kenya Shilling closed at 102.93.
The Nairobi All Share eased -0.6%.
The NSE20 closed close to unchanged.

Kapchorua Tea was high ticked +10.00% to close at 77.00 on just 400
shares. Kapchorua Tea trades on a Trailing PE of 3.62 after reporting
a FY EPS 21.27 versus [6.62] and paying a FY dividend of 10 shillings
a share worth 12.98% of yield.

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange [but that
is in fact the norm] and eased -1.03% to close at 24.00 and traded
8.868m shares worth 212.853m. Safaricom has corrected -28.35% off a
record high set earlier in the year and this is a compelling Entry
Opportunity. Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of 17.39 and
accelerated HY EPS +20.2%.

KCB Group firmed +0.65% to close at 38.25 and traded 2.442m shares
worth 93.410m. KCB trades on a Trailing PE of 5.94 and accelerated HY
2018 EPS H1 EPS +18.086%.
Equity Group closed unchanged at 39.00 and traded 1.969m shares worth
76.814m. Equity trades on a Trailing PE of 7.8 and accelerated Q3 2018
EPS +8.00%.

KenGen closed unchanged at 7.20 and traded 379,900 shares.

East African Portland Cement slumped -9.33% to close at 15.55.
Portland is -42.4% in 2018.