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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 15th of November 2018
 
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Expect more sterling volatility in short term amid barrage of Brexit headlines. Implied overnight sterling/dollar vol hits 23%, highest since June 2017 general election @ReutersJamie
Africa


Expect more sterling volatility in short term amid barrage of Brexit
headlines. Implied overnight sterling/dollar vol hits 23%, highest
since June 2017 general election, on track for biggest weekly rise in
at least 5 years. More than #Indyref, #Brexit referendum & 2017
election

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The story is HILAAAAAAAAAARIOUS @nntaleb
Africa


Some of my tweets during the Kashoggi period showed for location
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Someone discovered them yesterday and a total
frenzy ensued, with people searching for me there (they still are),
and MBS's electronic army throwing insults.

2- While Saudi mobs kept spouting all manner of epithets (mainly
racial), the most mysterious insult for Saudis appears to be "frm the
suburbs"

""The barbarian is at the shoe of the master in the suburb O brother
of the winter we are out owl of poverty" Nassim Nicholas Taleb added

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Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced his resignation on Wednesday in protest at a Gaza ceasefire that he called a "capitulation to terror" @Reuters
Law & Politics


“Were I to stay in office, I would not be able to look southern
residents in the eye,” Lieberman told reporters, referring to Israelis
subjected to a surge in Palestinian rocket attacks before Tuesday’s
truce took hold.

Lieberman said his resignation, which will go into effect 48 hours
after he submits a formal letter to Netanyahu, also withdraws his
far-right Israel Beitenu party from the coalition.

That would leave Netanyahu with control of just 61 of the 120 seats in
parliament a year before Israel’s next election.

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Sri Lanka's parliament passed a no-confidence motion against newly appointed Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa @Reuters
Law & Politics


Rajapaksa’s allies said they could not accept the vote, shouting “this
is illegal”.
Sri Lanka has been in turmoil since President Maithripala Sirisena
fired Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe last month, replaced him
with Rajapaksa, a pro-China strongman, and dissolved parliament.
“The (no-confidence) motion was taken to vote by voice on the floor
and it had a majority support. Now we are going to sign the papers,”
R. Sambanthan, leader of an opposition group bitterly opposed to
Rajapaska, told Reuters.

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Senator @LindseyGrahamSC called Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "unstable and unreliable"
Law & Politics


Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he and other like-minded
colleagues don’t yet have a plan of action. But he lambasted the
leadership of Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler. Prince Mohammed “has been
unstable and unreliable and I don’t see the situation getting fixed as
long as he’s around,” Graham said.
Asked if he was calling for a new crown prince to be named, Graham
said it was up to Saudi Arabia to determine its leadership. “I am of
the opinion that the current leadership, the MBS leadership, has been
a disaster for the relationship and the region, and I will find it
very difficult to do business as usual with somebody who’s been this
unstable,” he said.
Graham was skeptical of National Security Adviser John Bolton’s
comments Monday that people who’ve heard a recording of Khashoggi’s
murder don’t believe it implicates Prince Mohammed.
“Pretty hard for me to believe that 15 people just on their own fly to
Turkey and chop somebody up in a consulate and never tell anybody in
Saudi Arabia about it. I’ll be shocked if that turns out to be true,”
he said.

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@marcorubio said in a statement that some Chinese officials were responsible for "possible crimes against humanity." @Reuters
Law & Politics


U.S. lawmakers will introduce legislation on Wednesday urging a
stronger response by the Trump administration to China’s crackdown on
minority Muslims, including possible sanctions against a regional
Communist Party chief and other officials accused of human rights
abuses.
The legislation will also ask President Donald Trump to condemn
China’s actions in the Xinjiang region, call for a new “special
coordinator” of U.S. policy on the issue and press for consideration
of a ban on export of U.S. technology that Beijing could use in
surveillance and mass detention of ethnic Uighurs, according to a copy
of the measure seen by Reuters.
The lawmakers want the Trump administration to consider human
rights-related sanctions against Xinjiang Party Secretary Chen
Quanguo, who is also a member of the powerful politburo, and other
officials “credibly alleged to be responsible” for the security
crackdown, the measure will say.
“Chinese government officials should be held accountable for their
complicity in this evil and U.S. businesses should be barred from
helping China create a high-tech police state in Xinjiang,” said
Republican U.S. Representative Chris Smith, one of the sponsors of the
bipartisan legislation that will be presented in both the Senate and
House of Representatives.
The White House and the Chinese Embassy in Washington did not
immediately respond to a request for comment on the bill, which is
also being put forth by Republican Senator Marco Rubio and Democratic
Senator Bob Menendez
Trump’s senior aides recently have become more vocal in their
criticism of China’s treatment of its minority Muslims in Xinjiang,
which has sparked an international outcry. Any sanctions, however,
would be a rare move on human rights grounds by the Trump
administration against China, with which it is engaged in a bitter
trade war.
Beijing has dismissed accusations of abuses in Xinjiang, urging the
United States and other countries to stay out of its internal affairs.
China’s top diplomat said earlier on Tuesday that the world should
ignore “gossip” about developments in Xinjiang and trust authorities
there, when asked if Beijing would allow international observers to
inspect camps holding Muslims there.
Western countries including Canada, France, Germany, and the United
States have urged China to shut down camps in Xinjiang, where
activists say as many as 1 million members of the Uighur minority and
other Muslims are being detained. Far western Xinjiang faces a threat
from Islamist militants and separatists, China has said in the past.
Rubio said in a statement that some Chinese officials were responsible
for “possible crimes against humanity.”
The Trump administration for several months has been weighing
sanctions against Chinese officials and companies operating in
Xinjiang, U.S. officials have said, speaking on condition of
anonymity.
The new bill calls for consideration of measures under the Global
Magnitsky Act, which hits rights violators with freezes on U.S.
assets, U.S. travel bans, and prohibitions on Americans doing business
with them, and also under a federal law to target those involved in
religious repression around the world.
It will urge the administration to report back to Congress on Chinese
companies involved in the camps and ask the FBI to take action against
any Chinese government efforts to intimidate Uighurs living in the
United States.

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What's Pence Talking About? The US & China Are Already In A Cold War! @AKorybko
Law & Politics


Pence’s ominous warning about an imminent “all-out cold war” between
the US & China is only newsworthy because it bluntly, albeit
belatedly, states the obvious.
Pence seemed to shock many observers who were taken aback by his
ominous warning about an imminent “all-out cold war” between the US &
China, but most people are either feigning surprise or truly haven’t
been following the course of bilateral relations between these Great
Powers close enough to understand that this is nothing more than a
belatedly blunt statement of fact.
The US is keenly aware that China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is
the single-greatest long-term threat to its global hegemonic position
because of its potential to redirect trade routes away from the West
and to the People’s Republic, thereby catalyzing a chain reaction of
full-spectrum paradigm changes that will in turn accelerate the
emerging Multipolar World Order. The Liberal-Globalist faction of the
American permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic
bureaucracies (“deep state”) struggled to respond to this challenge
and are sometimes accused of seeking an “accommodation” with China to
“responsibility facilitate” this global systemic transition, while the
Nationalist faction led by Trump and his ilk are strongly opposed to
this trend and are pushing back against it with all their might.
This has seen the US utilize tariffs, sanctions, infowars, Hybrid
Wars, the “Lead From Behind” stratagem, and conventional military
means (e.g. patrolling the South China Sea) to push back against
China’s gradual gains in a bid to retain and ultimately expand its
hegemonic leadership. Seeing as how the US’ methods fall short of a
direct kinetic response against China (“hot war”), the present state
of affairs between the two is the textbook definition of a “cold war”,
albeit one that occasionally flares up in third-party states or
non-national domains (e.g. the financial and currency sectors) as a
result of this multifaceted hybrid campaign.
Considering the objective reality of International Relations as it
presently exists and the most likely trajectory that it’s expected to
continue along for the indefinite future, Pence is simply
preconditioning the global masses for a more overt intensification of
the aforesaid processes that will make it impossible to ignore the
ongoing New Cold War between the US and China over the fate of the
world order.

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Iran executed a gold dealer known as the "Sultan of Coins," in a warning to merchants not to exploit the country's financial troubles @business
Law & Politics


Vahid Mazloumin was sentenced to death in October after being accused
by Iranian authorities of contributing to price hikes by hoarding
gold. His assistant, Mohammad Esmail Qassemi, was also hanged early
Wednesday, state-run Iranian Students News Agency said.

Mazloumin didn’t hold a permit to trade gold and foreign currency, yet
had formed the largest illegal network in that area, according to
state-run Fars news agency. He instructed his team to corner the gold
coin market to resell at higher prices, amassing about 2 tons of them,
local media said.

On Tuesday, Tehran police said security forces had arrested about 130
illegal currency traders in recent days.

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Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver.
Law & Politics


During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices
rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in
January 1980.[2] Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an
ounce two months later,[2] much of the fall occurring on a single day
now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules
regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.[3]

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02-JAN-2018 :: I am no longer bullish bitcoin, in fact, I am bearish
Law & Politics


Last year, I made bitcoin my number one choice and it rallied close to
20-fold before correcting and ending the year +1,300%. I am no longer
bullish bitcoin, in fact, I am bearish. The structure of bitcoin is,
however, one that lends it to being ‘’short-squeezed’’ and being
‘’short-squeezed’’ is not a pleasant sensation, let me assure you. For
2018, the portfolio will look to be short bitcoin on a tactical basis.

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27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" @TheStarKenya
International Trade


Bitcoin has been the top- performing currency every year since 2010,
except 2014, and this year at +900%, the return has been parabolic
(off the charts). The parabola was described thus by Thomas Pynchon

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It Is the
parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe- that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

If you spend your life deeply immersed in the markets, then it is
necessary to sniff out these parabolic moves. And it’s better to do
right than say right as Edwin Lefevre noted nearly a century ago.

Or as T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men
Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom.

This, you will agree, is mind-boggling inflation. In my experience,
when I have found myself riding a tiger by its tail, the key issue is
the getting off and not trying to run the trade for every penny.

‘’One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash
of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by
the boy who shined his shoes. He immediately sold all his holdings. If
the mania for gambling on the stock market had reached down to the
children on the streets, the bubble must have been due to pop at any
moment. The corresponding moment for the cryptocurrency bubble will
only be discernible in retrospect, but we have some pretty strong
candidates already. The endorsement of one project by the reality TV
star Paris Hilton has already happened.’’

There are many cryptocurrency schemes which are sold on the same
grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble prospectus: “For carrying on
an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”

My investment thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was
going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my
wildest dreams, therefore, I am now sidelined.

Let me leave you with Hunter S.Thompson, “Life should not be a journey
to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and
well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of
smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming
“Wow! What a Ride!”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1337
Dollar Index 96.87
Japan Yen 113.44
Swiss Franc 1.0056
Pound 1.3010
Aussie 0.7275
India Rupee 72.155
South Korea Won 1129.45
Brazil Real 3.7841
Egypt Pound 17.9080
South Africa Rand 14.3333

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12-NOV-2018 :: Crude Oil, a Crown Prince plays his Get-Out-Of Jail Card and the US Mid-Terms
Commodities


WTI [American] Crude Oil peaked at a 4 year high price of $76.00+ at
the beginning of October. it closed at $60.10 on Friday. WTI Crude Oil
posted a record-beating sequence of  a ten session losing streak
through Friday, something the Price of Oil has never done since
records began in 1983.  Brent Crude closed at a 4 year high of just
below $86.00 at around the same time. It closed at $70.41 on Friday.
Both Crude Oil benchmarks are in bear markets. In fact, Crude Oil and
the FANGS were a bright spot in 2018 through October until they got
destroyed.

Mr. Khashoggi was murdered in cold blood in an obviously ''Quentin
Tarantino'' style operation. The facts as have been presented are
stranger than fiction and my question is if this is how they conduct
themselves on foreign soil, just imagine what must be going on at
home. The Image of Khashoggi's son being compelled to shake MBS's hand
is surely the most apposite metaphor for the House of Saud.

The proximity of the beginning of the bear market in Crude Oil and the
disappearance of Khashoggi is no coincidence. The Sell-Off was
''manufactured'' by the Crown Prince and was his response and an
attempt to release some of the Pressure from the [geopolitical]
Pressure Cooker. It produced a Tail-Wind [or did not allow the Price
of Gas to become a Head-Wind] for President Trump as he entered the
Mid-Terms, now behind us of course. It was actually a ''Set-Up''
Trade. It was the only Get Out of Jail Card that the Crown Prince
could play. The Question is does this keep on spinning lower under its
own momentum?

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Fast-growing African cities at 'extreme risk' from climate change - analysts
Africa


Africa’s rapidly expanding cities face huge threats from climate
change over the next 30 years, which could bring knock-on effects such
as higher crime rates and civil unrest, risk analysts said on
Wednesday.
Researchers at UK-based Verisk Maplecroft found 84 of the world’s 100
fastest-growing cities are at “extreme risk” from the impacts of a
warming planet, including 79 in Africa.
That group contains 15 of the continent’s capital cities and many of
its commercial hubs, including Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of
Congo, Nigeria’s most populous city Lagos, Tanzanian business hub Dar
es Salaam and Angola’s capital, Luanda.
The Verisk Maplecroft analysis combined its own annual index of
vulnerability to climate change with U.N. projections on urban
population growth to 2035.
Fast-rising populations act as “a risk multiplier in lower-income
cities with poor public infrastructure and inadequate disaster
response mechanisms”, with more people putting strain on limited
resources, the study said.
Kinshasa, for instance, is now home to about 13 million people, but
that figure is set to double by 2035.
The city is exposed to shocks from extreme weather, including
flooding, as well as slower climate pressures such as drought in
surrounding areas, which could drive poor farmers into the city while
disrupting food and water supplies, the analysis noted.
It and other African cities at extreme risk are grappling with high
poverty levels, expanding slums, weak governance and limited ability
to adapt to climate shifts, researchers said.
Niall Smith, an environmental analyst with Verisk Maplecroft, warned
wilder weather and rising sea levels could “underpin a whole host of
secondary impacts and social issues” such as poverty, violence and
resource insecurity.
“That is something we would foresee as getting much worse in these
high and extreme risk locations,” he added.
Commenting on the findings, Mami Mizutori, head of the U.N. Office for
Disaster Risk Reduction, said rapid, unplanned urbanisation - “where
slums are being created overnight” - is increasing disaster risk in
many developing-world cities.

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Over 95% of the 234 cities considered 'extreme risk' in the CCVI are in Africa and Asia, compounding fears that the world's poorest countries are set to pay the highest price of climate change. @MaplecroftRisk
Law & Politics


Urban centres in Africa dominate in terms of population growth, with
86 of the 100 fastest growing cities. Significantly, 79 of these are
rated ‘extreme risk’ in the CCVI, including 15 African capitals and
many of the continent’s key commercial hubs. Among the most at risk
are: Kampala in Uganda, where the annual population is set to grow by
5.1% a year on average between 2018-35; Dar-es-Salaam in Tanzania
(4.8%), Abuja (4.5%) and Lagos (3.5%) in Nigeria; Addis Ababa (4.3%)
in Ethiopia; and Luanda (3.7%) in Angola.

The relationship between climate change vulnerability and rates of
population growth is strong. The highest risk cities already lack
adequate healthcare services and disaster mitigation systems and have
highly vulnerable populations. The strain on essential services will
intensify as populations continue to rise.

Using the latest IMF projections, we estimate future exposure of urban
GDP under the CCVI to illustrate the levels of financial risk. The 10
cities rated ‘extreme risk’ in the CCVI with the highest economic
exposure to climate change in 2023 include the largest commercial
centres of some of the world’s key emerging markets: Jakarta,
Indonesia – US$233bn; Manila, Philippines – US$166bn; Lagos, Nigeria –
US$128.5bn; Baghdad, Iraq – US$88bn; and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia –
US$69bn.

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The making of the BLEFF - Post-Zuma, there is nothing left of the left By Richard Poplak @dailymaverick
Africa


To the immense joy of right-wing crypto-fascist militia
members,Sandton corporatists, DA voters and Fox News’s Tucker Carlson,
Julius Malema and the Economic Freedom Fighters are currently
expending huge amounts of political capital portraying Private
Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhanas the anti-black leader of a
secretive Indian cabal, and as Prime Evil in a plot to destroy the
worthy cadres deployed by Zuma Inc. to gut our national institutions.
Corruption "is the one truly non-racial, non-binary, gender-neutral
intersectionally-inclusive endeavour undertaken by our species. Anyone
can do it, and pretty much everyone in South Africa does."

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MTN Nigeria Fine May Be Cut to $800 Million, Senators Say: Punch
Africa


Nigeria may be prepared to reduce an $8.1 billion fine imposed on MTN
Group Ltd. over the alleged illegal repatriation of funds to as little
as $800 million, Punch newspaper reported, citing senators it didn’t
identify.
MTN shares rose as much as 7.3 percent after the report was published
in the Lagos-based newspaper, the biggest jump in more than six weeks,
and traded 3 percent higher at 83.45 rand as of 9:32 a.m. in
Johannesburg.

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We had nothing to hide, and even had a letter of invitation from the government-recognised press regulator. But then I heard a knock on my hotel room door @dailymaverick @angelaquintal
Africa


US President Donald Trump was berating CNN White House correspondent
Jim Acosta on cable news when I heard a knock on my hotel room door. I
opened it to find the hotel manager flanked by several men and women
in plain clothes. They were there for a regular immigration check, she
said.
“Wow. So many of you? I feel like a criminal,” I joked.
The manager smiled, but it was no joke. It was the evening of 7
November and we were in Dar Es Salaam, about to experience first-hand
the repression, Afrophobia, and paranoia that have become the hallmark
of Tanzania under President John Magufuli  – the very antithesis of
what the country’s founding father Julius Nyerere espoused.
A week into our visit we got a slight taste of what our colleagues
have endured. We were raided in our hotel rooms by agents purporting
to be immigration officials. Our passports and electronic devices were
seized and we were denied access to a lawyer and embassy officials. I
managed to alert CPJ in New York so that our emergency protocols could
kick in and called my partner in Johannesburg to ensure high-level
government intervention. I also took to Twitter and Facebook to alert
the world to our impending arrest. Little did I know that I would
cause a social media storm.
We were bundled into the back of a minivan with several agents. The
rear and side curtains were closed and there was an attempt to
disorientate us by apparently driving aimlessly around Dar. We were
eventually taken to a house in a suburb we recognised only because we
spotted a sign for the new offices of Tanzania Human Rights Defenders
Coalition. We were told earlier that the area was popular with
Tanzanian intelligence and I had no doubt that we were in their
custody.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2018
 
 
 
 
 
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