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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 17th of December 2018

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Dragon's blood tree, Dracaena cinnabari, Socotra, Yemen. Living for up to 500 years, these bizarre trees are unique to the island of Socotra

Dragon’s blood tree, Dracaena cinnabari, Socotra, Yemen. Living for up
to 500 years, these bizarre trees are unique to the island of Socotra.
Growing in severe conditions, they have raised their branches upward
over time in an effort to obtain moisture from the highland
mists—hence the distinctive appearance of their canopies, which look
like an umbrella blown inside out. Twice per year the islanders are
allowed to cut the trunks of these trees to collect their deep red
sap, highly prized since antiquity for its medicinal value

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Desert rose, Adenium obesum, in Socotra, Yemen Socotra's "bottle trees," are among the most astonishing sights in the alienlike landscape

Desert rose, Adenium obesum, in Socotra, Yemen Socotra’s ”bottle
trees,” are among the most astonishing sights in the alienlike
landscape. Leathery and bulbous, they look somewhat like small
baobabs, with inflated trunks and huge tuberous roots that apparently
requite little soil, as they sink into the bare rock. Their blossoms
have earned them their more poetic name: desert rose.

Word of the day: "zohar" - the quality of brightness, of radiance
from within, of being aglow with possibility (Hebrew; זֹהַר). "Zohar"
connotes an openness to & connection with natural  beauty; it is also
the name of the foundational work of Kaballah.


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Remember, Michael Cohen only became a "Rat" realDonaldTrump
Law & Politics

Remember, Michael Cohen only became a “Rat” after the FBI did
something which was absolutely unthinkable & unheard of until the
Witch Hunt was illegally started. They BROKE INTO AN ATTORNEY’S
OFFICE! Why didn’t they break into the DNC to get the Server, or
Crooked’s office?


He is a linguistic warfare Specialist but the linguistics now confirms
he is tipping over the edge.

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Report: Saudi prince planning @netanyahu meeting, hosted by @realDonaldTrump @israelnatnews
Law & Politics

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is planning a
“game-changing” meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu, the Middle East Eye reported Thursday.
According to the London-based, Qatari-funded outlet, the sources in
the Saudi kingdom claimed that the Crown Prince is “seriously
considering” a “game-changing” meeting with Netanyahu, which would be
hosted by President Donald Trump.
The plan for a meeting with the Israeli leader, including a public
handshake modeled on the Begin-Sadat handshake at Camp David in 1978,
is reportedly being developed by a special team put together by the
Crown Prince to deflect criticism following the killing of dissident
journalist Jamal Khashoggi at a Saudi consulate in Turkey in October.
The move is reportedly being promoted in part in the hopes of curbing
plans by Western powers, including a pending motion in the US Senate,
against the Saudi leadership over Khashoggi’s murder.
“MBS asked his task force to study this proposal and he hinted that he
liked the idea,” a Saudi official told the Middle East Eye.

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A majority of the U.K. cabinet considers Prime Minister @theresa_may's Brexit deal to be dead
Law & Politics

One group -- Works and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd, Chancellor
Philip Hammond, Cabinet Office Secretary David Lidington, Justice
Secretary David Gauke and Business Secretary Greg Clark -- is leaning
toward backing a second referendum if all other options are exhausted,
according to the newspaper’s account.

Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Home Secretary Sajid Javid are
understood to be refusing to accept the prospect of leaving without a
deal but want Brexit to proceed. Gove is thought to prefer the idea of
a softer departure such as a Norway-style deal.

A third group of House of Common leader Andrea Leadsom, Secretary to
the Treasury Liz Truss and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt are said to
be willing to leave without a deal, the newspaper said.

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What's been happening in France shows what can occur when those in power lose control of the narrative. A cross-ideological people's uprising is the absolute worst nightmare scenario of the ruling class @caitoz
Law & Politics

Whoever has the gold makes the rules, but whoever controls the
narrative determines who gets the gold. @caitoz
Anyone who tries to control your narrative about yourself is trying to
control you.

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics

Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng

You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Law & Politics

Euro 1.1312
Dollar Index 97.41
Japan Yen 113.47
Swiss Franc 0.9977
Pound 1.2583
Aussie 0.7176
India Rupee 71.88
South Korea Won 1130.50
Brazil Real 3.9173
Egypt Pound 17.952
South Africa Rand 14.3707

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A Year After the Crypto Bubble Burst, Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? @business's @tracyalloway
World Currencies

Everybody had crypto dreams. What did they think they were buying?
Bitcoin was worth $3,300 on Dec. 11. That’s amazing, considering that
cryptocurrency was created out of nothing 10 years ago.
But it’s also depressing to many, because a year ago, Bitcoin’s value
hit almost $20,000 in what could prove one of the most dramatic
economic bubbles in world history.
The fallout has been stark. “Mr. Satoshi, the CEO, [is] not showing up
to provide any kind of explanation … #Shame #Refund,” lamented one
frustrated crypto enthusiast online, apparently misinformed about the
role of Bitcoin’s unknown, pseudonymous inventor.
The sentiment, and the many like it, show how far we’ve come from
Bitcoin’s dreamy beginnings. For much of its first decade,
cryptocurrency was a form of digital populism, fueling a belief that
it would be used to fight greed, financial manipulation, and the power
of Wall Street while delivering a secure, efficient, and independent
payment system.
Today, Bitcoin is unmoored from those ideological underpinnings; it’s
become many things to many people. Even after the crash, there are
those who hold out hope that it will be the path to fast wealth in the
form of Lamborghinis. (“When Lambo?” being the rallying call of the
generic crypto bro.) To others, it’s a vehicle for fraud, money
laundering, and other crimes. And for many on Wall Street, Bitcoin is
a legitimate asset class that the traditional financial
establishment—and regulators—will eventually bless.
And an entirely new vernacular evolved: Don’t get distracted by FUD
(fear, uncertainty, and doubt)—just HODL (hold), bro.
In 2017 companies sought to take advantage of investors’ sense of FOMO
(fear of missing out). They changed their names to include the word
“blockchain” and immediately saw their stock prices soar. There were
crypto influencers getting paid to shill for digital assets on social
media. (Some famous ones, including boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr., have
been fined by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the
practice.) Crypto whales were rumored to have locked up huge swaths of
the market. A cult arose of Bitcoin maximalists, who believe their
particular digital currency (and no one else’s) will one day replace
all other forms of money.
Can Bitcoin and its brethren survive this sell-off? Three times before
we’ve seen peaks in the price and dramatic drops, only for crypto
prices to improve later. The big difference this go-round is the sheer
scale of the money lost—more than $700 billion, according to Coinbase
Inc., a digital currency platform. There are more careers on the line,
too. Hundreds of former database managers have rebranded themselves
“blockchain experts,” and wealth managers have pitched digital assets
as a form of portfolio diversification to investors who probably
deserved better advice.
Market wisdom says crashes find their bottom when the last bull
capitulates and sells. But what does capitulation look like for an
asset that’s been as much a cultural moment as an investable security?
How many different dreams for Bitcoin have to die? To be trustworthy,
money should be simple and boring—which Bitcoin has so far never been.
Someone was always going to be disappointed.

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26-NOV-2018 :: Armageddon Cryptogeddon and BITCOIN.
World Currencies

It was an in an article on Dec 30th 2016 that I wrote that my
conviction Trade for 2017 was  1. Long BITCOIN. BITCOIN was trading at
levels around $1,000.00 going into 2017. My Thesis was that BITCOIN
and the entire crypto-currency World which had been very esoteric and
something of a closed World of ''bug-eyed'' Gamers and the Off-Grid
Folks who wanted throw the Yoke of Government off their backs, would
''mainstream'' And it ''mainstreamed'' beyond my wildest dreams
through 2017. By November 2017 BITCOIN was knocking on the door of
$10,0000.00 and on the 27th November 2017, I wrote an article
captioned  Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" and advised booking the profits
on the Trade. A more than 9.7x Price Inflation was getting
uncomfortably close to outpacing the Tulip Mania [see Graph] BITCOIN's
parabolic price rally had spawned thousands of other crypto currencies
which were sold on the same grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble
prospectus: “For carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but
nobody to know what it is.”

The Price inflated further reaching a high of $19,763.00 on 18 dec
2017. By the first of January this year we had retreated to
$13,428.00. On the 02-JAN-2018 I reiterated my Point to get out and
said '' I am no longer bullish bitcoin, in fact, I am bearish''  At
this point in time, I met Folks on these Streets who would pull out
their Computer and show me how they were making money every second
[Look at that they would say and indeed There was a number and it was
ticking higher] mining BITCOIN. The recent cryptocurrency market
decline has resulted in a similar drop in mining profitability and
forced Chinese operators to sell their mining devices at a loss. Some
mining machines are being sold on the second-hand market for merely 5
percent of their original value.  Others would tell me, I've bought
Nvidia. Crypto at this point was at Peak Phenomenon.

As I write this BITCOIN is trading at $3,650.00. I think its going
right back to levels below $1,000.00.

We have yet to hit peak melt-down. The reason being so many Folks
espouse the HODL philosophy.

GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden
rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold
his bitcoin from that point on. "I type d that tyitle twice because I
knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in
reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding." "WHY AM I
HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued. "It's because I'm a bad
trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot
the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and
make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."

He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in
a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The
people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can
only take your money if you sell." He then confessed he'd had some
whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  [HODL
Definition | Investopedia]

Selling at todays levels frankly is still a great Trade.

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27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" @TheStarKenya
World Currencies

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably.It is the
parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe- that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a
journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty
and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of
smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming
“Wow! What a Ride!”

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Can the world produce enough cobalt for electric vehicles? @TheEconomist
World Currencies

The only thing that can accelerate as fast as an electric car is the
price of the most expensive metal in its batteries. Once a niche input
used to strengthen turbine blades, cobalt’s value has soared since it
started to feature in modern electronics. Most phones need a few
grams’ worth, and every car requires 5-10kg. That adds up. Many
business models are based on ample reservoirs of cobalt that experts
warn do not exist.

Most incremental demand for cobalt comes from carmakers, which have
invested around $100bn in electric-vehicle (ev) technology. According
to one estimate, by 2030 at least as much of the stuff will be needed
for transport alone as was mined in 2017. America has designated it a
“critical mineral”.

Battery technology is evolving; some need less or no cobalt. Tesla, an
electric carmaker, is among those saying it is “aiming to achieve
close to zero usage of cobalt”, helping derail a rally in the metal’s
price this year (see chart).

Sometimes they operate on the territory of big miners. “We take
shovels, torches, hammers, picks and wire-cutters to make a hole in
the fence,” says Paul, one such miner in Kawama, near Glencore’s
operations. “We usually go to the mine at around 10pm. If we don’t get
caught we’ll stay there, digging, until dawn.” Cobalt traders, many of
whom are Chinese, will buy a night’s output for $40—a small fortune by
local standards.

A few other places, such as Australia, have small amounts of cobalt.
But the biggest source is even trickier than Congo to explore: leagues
below the high seas. Much of the floor of the Pacific ocean is lined
with nodules rich in cobalt. If there is not enough in the ground,
going underwater is the logical next step.

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Chinese battery maker GEM Co. has halted buying cobalt from Glencore Plc after prices fell below the agreed level under a three-year contract signed earlier this year @business

Cobalt prices have dropped more than 25 percent since a peak in April
amid growing concerns that too much supply has been brought online in
response to surging prices. Last week Glencore warned that some buyers
in China reneged on contracts after seeing prices plunge, forcing the
company to renegotiate the commercial terms of the deals.

Glencore, the biggest producer of the key battery ingredient, is now
in the process of trying to negotiate with its contracted buyers, said
the person who declined to identified as the matter is private.
Reuters earlier reported that GEM had stopped buying from Glencore.

“GEM and Glencore are always strategic partners,” the Chinese company
said in a statement posted on a website of the Shenzhen Stock
Exchange. “The cobalt supply business with Glencore is always
operating normally. We have never stopped our cooperation. Glencore
and GEM are jointly actively coping with challenges in the cobalt
supply market.”

GEM and its subsidiaries agreed in March to lock in 13,800 metric tons
of cobalt contained in hydroxide from Glencore this year before rising
to 18,000 tons in 2019 and 21,000 tons in 2020. The figures
represented about 35 percent of Glencore’s planned cobalt production
this year at the time of the announcement.

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@PMEthiopia "#Abiy controls the international narrative but not necessarily the country" @Reuters's @MaggieFick

Although the Tigrayans who inhabit these craggy hills are only a small
minority in a country of more than 100 million, they have dominated
its power structures since 1991 when the Ethiopian People’s
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) drove a Marxist military regime
from power.
Now many leading Tigrayans are being detained or sidelined as
reformist prime minister, Abiy Ahmed attempts to draw a line under
past abuses. One adviser to Abiy told Reuters that the prime minister
has sacked 160 army generals for actions he said amount to “state
In Mekelle, capital of the Tigray region, and in nearby villages, a
siege mentality is taking hold among people who say they feel under
attack. The frustration could pose a threat to the 42-year-old prime
minister as he urges people to back “reforms, not revolution”.
“Abiy controls the international narrative but not necessarily the
country,” Getachew said.
Abiy addressed the accusation in a statement on Wednesday, saying:
“Just like we don’t blame a forest for what a single tree has done, we
don’t blame or point our fingers at any tribe for the crimes
individuals committed.”
Abiy too hails from the EPRDF. He served in the military in Tigray as
a teenager and speaks the Tigrinya language. But he has taken a
wrecking ball to the institutions the ruling coalition had used to
control the country.
In a speech last month, he said the three years of anti-government
protests that helped bring him to power in April showed that
Ethiopians no longer tolerate “backwardness and injustice”.
In the capital, Addis Ababa, and other cities, Abiy’s face is
everywhere: on stickers, t-shirts and posters. But not in Tigray,
where he is increasingly unpopular.
“We won them freedom. We brought them electricity. We built them
roads,” said Fitsum Tekele, a 50-year-old farmer, as he crouched
barefoot in a field outside Mekelle harvesting teff, the staple crop,
with a sickle. “If they say they were in darkness for 27 years, their
minds are not working.”
Two of his brothers left a car hire business in the Amhara region,
Fitsum said. “They came home with nothing.”
“Nobody will kneel down here,” a tour guide said.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -13.35% 2018

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.3707


Egypt tops the list of FDI destinations in Africa—an extraordinary
recovery following the post-uprising turmoil. 🔎Find out more with our
📈chart and   📚report @/AfDB_Group


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.952


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -19.80% 2018


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3§.06% 2018


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Zambia denies @WhiteHouse claim China taking over power utility @ReutersAfrica

Zambia has denied claims by a White House official that China is
about to take over its state power utility to recover $6-10 billion
debt, noting the utility was never provided as collateral and its debt
to Beijing was only $3.1 billion.
U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton said on Thursday that
China’s quest for more power in Africa was evident in nations like
Zambia, and China was poised to take over Zambia’s utility company
Zesco to collect the debt.
Zambia’s presidential spokesman Amos Chanda told Reuters the figure of
between $6-10 billion given by Bolton was wrong. Zambia’s total
external debt was now $9.7 billion including $3.1 billion owed to
China, he said

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Avenue of the Baobabs, Adansonia grandidieri, in Morondava, Madagascar

Avenue of the Baobabs, Adansonia grandidieri, in Morondava, Madagascar
These baobabs, which rise to heights of nearly a hundred feet, are
found only on the island of Madagascar, where they’re known as renala,
Malagasy for “mother of the forest.” The trees in this grove are
approximately 800 years old. Sadly, these 20-some baobabs are the only
survivors of what was once a dense tropical forest. In 2007, the
avenue was granted temporary protected status.

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Court pronounced itself on Dr.@MigunaMiguna's case; Fundamental freedoms & Fair Administrative Act @DumeSingh
Kenyan Economy


AN ACT of Parliament to give effect to Article 47of the Constitution,
and for connected purposes ENACTED by the Parliament of Kenya...

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A note on the value of the Kenya shilling @DavidNdii
Kenyan Economy

The offensive claim, contained in the IMF’s latest report on the
country dated October 2018, states as follows: “The EBA-lite
methodology for the exchange rate suggests that the external position
is weaker than fundamentals. The current account approach shows that
the current account deficit (both actual and cyclically adjusted) are
above the norm (the CA gap is -2.5 percent), suggesting an
overvaluation of about 17.5 percent of the real exchange rate. This
can only marginally be explained by the policy gap. The REER approach
also shows a similar-size of overvaluation, equivalent to about 18.0
percent. Again, the policy gap is marginal. Given the continued
appreciation of the real exchange rate, the external position is
assessed to be weaker than fundamentals. Regarding the last approach,
the external sustainability approach, it was not possible to use it as
the international investment position data is not yet produced by the
authorities.” This needs a fair amount of disambiguation. EBA is a
needless acronym that stands for external balance approach for
exchange rate assessment. The methodology is described in an IMF paper
published in 2013 as an update of a previous methodology known as
CGER. CGER is another needless acronym for consultative group for
exchange rate assessment. This EBA thing appears to be what the CBK
governor is referring to as a new approach.

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"The government debt burden has increased consistently and we expect it to reach 60% of GDP over the medium-term," said Lucie Villa, a @MoodysInvSvc's Vice President
Kenyan Economy

Kenya's low institutional strength stems from its low ranking on the
Worldwide Governance Indicators. High statistical transparency
supports policy decision-making, but fiscal policy effectiveness and
credibility have weakened.
The government's persistently large fiscal deficits and rollback on
its commitment to repeal the cap on banks' lending rates introduced in
September 2016 point to low fiscal policy effectiveness and
The fiscal deficit reached more than 8% of GDP between fiscal year
2015 and fiscal year 2017, driven by large spending related to
infrastructure upgrades.
The general election and droughts in 2017 put additional pressure on
government spending during the year, while revenue remained subdued.
Moody's expects only a gradual narrowing of the fiscal deficit to
around 6.5% of GDP in fiscal 2019, which is higher than the
government's target of 5.7% in the original budget and the level of
6.1% proposed in the supplementary budget.
Kenya's twin deficits expose it to tighter global liquidity, which
makes interest rate rises more likely, a risk the government is
particularly sensitive to given its large borrowing requirements of
about 20% of GDP.

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newly issued 10-year Treasury bond (issue FXD 2/2018/10) yield at 12.5% #cytonnreport @CytonnInvest
Kenyan Economy

newly issued 10-year Treasury bond (issue FXD 2/2018/10) overall
subscription rate of 72.2% government accepted Kshs 26.2 bn out of
Kshs 28.9 bn worth of bids yield at 12.5%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2018

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