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Wednesday 19th of December 2018 |
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Oil Spirals Below $47 as Dark Clouds Envelop Demand Outlook @business Africa |
Futures slid 7.3 percent in New York on Tuesday, putting prices on track for their worst quarterly loss since the start of the last oil market crash in late 2014. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery fell $3.64 to $46.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since Aug. 30, 2017. Total volume traded Tuesday was about 23 percent above the 100-day average. In Midland, Texas, heart of the Permian shale basin that’s driven the U.S. boom, prices broke below $40 a barrel, as buyers factored in pipeline shortages that have pushed up transportation costs. Drillers “will likely see harsher cuts to capital plans if WTI remains below $50,” Houston investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. warned in a note to clients. Brent for February settlement lost $3.35 to $56.26 on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Even so, the front-month future settled at a premium to the next contract for the first time since Nov. 5. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.66 premium to WTI for the same month. Bearish trends overwhelmed bullish developments including word that unrest curtailed pumping in Libya’s biggest oilfield. Nonetheless, oil, heating oil and gasoline all sank near or below technical support levels, said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London. Futures contracts “are in a world of pain,” he wrote in a note to clients.
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What is the enduring appeal of The Nutcracker? @Harvard Africa |
The best-known “Nutcracker” is a ballet based on Alexander Dumas’ adaptation of Hoffman’s tale, with music by the Russian composer Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky. The piece premiered in St. Petersburg in 1892, a year before the Tchaikovsky’s death. More than a half-century later, George Balanchine transformed it into an American classic. CORTESE: When I was 12 or 13 there was a friend of the family who was conducting “The Nutcracker” in Rome. I used to go to the rehearsals and performances. I loved it. I loved the whole thing. I loved the orchestra, I loved the rehearsals, I loved the performances, I loved the music. GAZETTE: What is it about the music that people find so compelling? CORTESE: It’s a very colorful piece. It’s wonderful music. Also, there is a great variety of moments. It’s really Tchaikovsky at the height of his maturity. It’s one of his last great works, before his Sixth Symphony, which was his last great work. If you compare the two you see he took a very different approach. “The Nutcracker” is quite light, and wonderfully entertaining, but it is certainly less deep and less personal that the Sixth Symphony.
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Anyone betting that Chinese President Xi Jinping would back down quickly in a trade war with Donald Trump better think again @Economics Law & Politics |
Anyone betting that Chinese President Xi Jinping would back down quickly in a trade war with Donald Trump better think again. Xi told a Beijing crowd including some of China’s most influential political, military and business figures on Tuesday that the country’s growing wealth and power had validated the Communist Party’s -- and thus his own -- leadership. “No one is in the position to dictate to the Chinese people what should and should not be done,” Xi said. Xi’s speech -- an 80-minute recitation of party achievements -- outlined no new economic policies that might assuage investor concerns about market access or the slowing economy. Instead, he reaffirmed China’s pursuit of “indigenous innovation” in “core technologies.” “2018 has been a very difficult year for Xi Jinping,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of Beijing-based research firm Trivium China. “The question going forward is how the system responds to all these troubles bubbling up. Will the system adjust? Or will these problems open up cracks in the system and undermine Xi’s authority and his grand project?” Rather than retreat, Xi vowed to press on. He offered long passages about the party’s supremacy and the need to promote Marxist ideology. Indeed, Xi has so far managed to consolidate more power than any Chinese leader in a generation and keep the country’s economic slowdown from getting out of control. His gestures on trade were enough to secure a 90-day tariff cease-fire from Trump during their summit in Argentina earlier this month. The U.S. and China are planning to hold meetings next month to negotiate a broader truce, although they’re unlikely to have any face-to-face contact before then, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Bloomberg News on Tuesday. “Despite significant economic headwinds, including the eruption of a trade war with the U.S., Xi and his economic team managed to steer clear of a significant slowdown or collapse of investor confidence,” said Jude Blanchette, who analyzes Chinese politics at Crumpton Group, an international advisory firm in Arlington, Va. “But for Xi and China’s economy, a crisis averted is but a crisis delayed.”
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Africa: No Coups Occurred in 2018. Will Next Year Be So Stable? @allafrica Law & Politics |
But in some ways 2018 was unusually stable. It is on track to be only the second year in a century without a coup d'état. The last head of state overthrown was Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe in November 2017. There have been 463 coup attempts worldwide since 1950, 233 of which were successful. These undemocratic power transfers have sparked civil wars, triggered authoritarian crackdowns and stunted economic growth. Before 2018 the only other coup-free year in the past century was 2007.
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As the Middle East ushers in 2019, the decade's ruinous conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq seem to be winding down after exacting a painful price AP Law & Politics |
As the Middle East ushers in 2019, the decade’s ruinous conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq seem to be winding down after exacting a painful price — many thousands killed, millions uprooted from their homes and entire cities reduced to rubble. Yet the potential for unrest remains high, including in countries that escaped civil war after the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, such as Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. Millions of young people in the region remain locked out of economic and political participation as authoritarian governments fail to tackle soaring youth unemployment and other deep-seated problems. “I think 2019 is a very challenging year,” said analyst Amer Sabaileh in Jordan, where weekly rallies against economic policies toppled a prime minister this year and now take aim at his successor. “I wonder what will happen with the rising sense of hopelessness among broad populations,” said Jon Alterman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Will people just put their heads down and be miserable? Or will a sense that there is no public outlet, no media outlet, lead to some sort of explosion, even if it’s not specifically directed toward change?” The destructive fallout from Arab Spring uprisings could serve as a deterrent to some.
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06-AUG-2018 :: The Indian Ocean Economy and a Port Race Africa |
Today from Massawa, Eritrea [admittedly on the Red Sea] to Djibouti, from Berbera to Mogadishu, from Lamu to Mombasa to Tanga to Bagamoyo to Dar Es Salaam, through Beira and Maputo all the way to Durban and all points in between we are witnessing a Port race of sorts as everyone seeks to get a piece of the Indian Ocean Port action. China [The BRI initiative], the Gulf Countries [who now appear to see the Horn of Africa as their hinter- land], Japan and India [to a lesser degree] are all jostling for optimal ‘’geo-economic’’ positioning.
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Sullivan yelled. "Arguably, this undermines everything this flag over here stands for! Arguably, you sold your country out!" @nypost Law & Politics |
The postponement capped a tumultuous proceeding during which Sullivan erupted at Flynn for his criminal behavior and pressed prosecutors on whether they considered treason charges. “You were an unregistered agent of a foreign country while serving as the National Security Adviser to the president!” Sullivan yelled. “Arguably, this undermines everything this flag over here stands for! Arguably, you sold your country out!” That prompted Flynn’s lawyers to request a short break. When court resumed, prosecutors told Sullivan that Flynn’s work as a foreign agent concluded in mid-November 2016 – and the judge issued an apology for his fiery remarks. “I felt terrible about that,” a retrospective Sullivan said, CBS News Radio reporter Steven Portnoy tweeted. “I’m not suggesting he committed treason.” As part of a plea deal with prosecutors, Flynn had pleaded guilty to one count of making false statements for lying to the FBI about contact he had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak at the end of 2016. The judge set another court date, for a status hearing, for March 13, according to tweets from reporters in the courtroom.
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South Sudan Sees $2 Billion in Oil Investments as Just the Start @BBGAfrica Africa |
Recent pledges of $2 billion in investment for South Sudan’s oil may be just the start, with the war-torn nation expecting further agreements in early 2019, its petroleum minister said. Last month, a South African government fund pledged to invest $1 billion in oil exploration and the building of a refinery. Petroliam Nasional Bhd of Malaysia has promised to put a further $300 million into its operations, while Oranto Petroleum International Ltd. of Nigeria has wagered $500 million on developing an oil block, and local firm Trinity Energy has pledged $350 million. Gatkuoth said Russian, Spanish and Emirati companies may soon join them. If there’s peace and “you are not providing services to the people, people will be angry,” Gatkuoth said. “So for us we will work day and night for oil to be produced.” Given the turmoil that’s roiled South Sudan for its seven years as an independent nation and previous problems with oil exploration, it’s unclear whether all the investment will come to fruition, according to Harry Verhoeven, a lecturer at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Qatar. All the same, the peace deal “does seem to have increased the appetite of investors for the risky investment destination,” he said. “We’re still talking MoU’s, which are statements of intent, not actual investments, but potentially this could be pretty significant and could allow for much greater production levels and soaring income for the South Sudanese government.”
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.@TheEconomist's country of the year 2018 Africa |
Ethiopia had an extraordinary year. It is a huge place, with 105m people and a long history of tyranny and woe. A cold-war Marxist regime slaughtered and starved multitudes. The guerrillas who overthrew it looked to China for inspiration and loans. They had some success in rebuilding a desolate economy, but also shot protesters and virtually criminalised dissent. After tempers exploded following a rigged election in 2015, the ruling party this year picked a reformist leader, Abiy Ahmed, who has released political prisoners, largely unmuzzled the media and promised to hold real elections in 2020. He has made peace with Eritrea, opening a long-closed border and restoring access to the sea. He is even trying to liberalise Ethiopia’s debt-burdened, state-directed economy, where a phone connection is harder to get than in anarchic Somalia next door. If this were a contest for person of the year, Abiy might have won. But we did not choose Ethiopia because it is far from clear that the new prime minister will be able to curb ethnic violence. Separatists no longer fear being shot by the security services; some are now trying to create ethnically pure enclaves by driving minorities from their homes. Perhaps 1.4m people have been displaced so far. Autocracies, alas, seldom die quietly.
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Abiy Ahmed - bringing a touch of Madiba Magic to Ethiopia Daily Maverick Africa |
In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed became the youngest head of state in Africa, and one of the most talked-about in the world. In less than nine months, he’s opened up the political space in Ethiopia, changed the geopolitics in the horn of Africa, and is a serious contender for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Abiy Ahmed was only 13 when Nelson Mandela was released from prison, but there have already been comparisons between the world icon and the newly appointed Ethiopian prime minister. Abiy’s also a fan and wore a lime-green T-shirt with an image of Mandela in a raised-fist salute, above a slogan that read: “No one is free until the last one is free” – ironically to a rally where there was an attempt on his life.
Both Abiy and Madiba have achieved the near-impossible: Mandela led South Africa from apartheid to democracy, while Abiy led Ethiopia to peace and more openness.
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Private equity firm ECP buys majority stake in Kenya's Artcaffe Reuters Kenyan Economy |
Africa-focussed private equity firm Emerging Capital Partners said on Wednesday it has acquired a majority stake in Kenyan restaurant chain Artcaffe Group, the latest sign of growing international private equity investor interest in East Africa. The move comes after ECP’s stake sale last year in Kenyan casual dining and coffee chain Java House, which also has operations in Uganda and Rwanda. ECP sold Java House, the largest coffee shop chain in East Africa, to buyout group Abraaj. “There is immense opportunity in eastern Africa for casual dining concepts. Alongside population growth and increased urbanization, demand for international cuisine and casual, high-quality dining experiences is rising,” ECP said in a statement. The firm did not say how much it would pay for the “substantial majority” stake in Artcaffe, which runs 26 outlets in Kenya’s capital Nairobi, as well as a bakery, kitchen, and logistics centre that supplies its restaurants. A city of more than four million people, Nairobi is home to a growing middle class and large expatriate population that has piqued the interest of regional investors and global brands such as Yum Brands Inc’s KFC and Pizza Hut.
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Actis closes Kipeto Wind power financing deal Kenyan Economy |
London-based private equity company Actis LLP has acquired the equity interests of both the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the African Infrastructure Investment Managers in the Kipeto Wind Power project, making it the largest shareholder in Kenya’s second largest wind farm. Actis, which will now fund the 100MW project by 88 percent together with Kenyan partner Craftskills Wind Energy International at 12 percent, will also rope in senior debt from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (“OPIC”) - the US Government’s development finance institution. The wind power plant located in Kajiado County will be Kenya’s second largest wind farm after the Turkana Wind Power project which has a generation capacity of 310MW. The deal will now see the complete exit of the World Bank financing arm from the project originally conceived by Craftskills Wind Energy International, with support from US multinational conglomerate General Electric (“GE”). The power plant already inked a power purchasing deal with Kenya Power in 2016, meaning the country will soon benefit from cheaper wind generated power as Kenya continues to push for less expensive green energy sources.
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