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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 15th of April 2019
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Russia, China team up against attempts to break international law - Lavrov @tassagency_en
Law & Politics


"Our partnership with Beijing is not just an example of a mutually
beneficial and comprehensive relationship. Russian-Chinese cooperation
has a sobering effect on those who push ahead with illegal methods of
solving international problems," Lavrov said.
"It happened at the UN Security Council during the discussion of the
Syrian scenario when unilateral, unlawful resolutions were submitted.
It happened recently when our countries both vetoed the US-drafted
resolution on Venezuela, which went beyond all imaginable and
unimaginable norms of international law and basic diplomatic ethics,"
he added.

read more



Case counts have jumped recently, with 20 new cases on Wednesday, the highest number in any one day since the outbreak began in August, according to the International Rescue Committee. @nytimes
Law & Politics


Now in its eighth month, the outbreak has sickened 1,206 people and
killed 764 as of Wednesday, the W.H.O. reports. The affected
provinces, North Kivu and Ituri, are a conflict zone, rife with armed
militias. There have been multiple attacks on treatment centers by
unknown assailants.

Responding to the W.H.O. decision, Doctors Without Borders, which has
been working in the region, issued a statement saying, “More than
eight months into the outbreak, the situation is alarming. The number
of new reported cases has significantly increased over the past few
weeks, reaching its highest levels since the declaration of the
epidemic. Last week, 40 percent of the newly reported cases are people
who died in the community before they could be identified as Ebola
patients and offered care.”

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1314
Dollar Index 96.84
Japan Yen 111.90
Swiss Franc 1,0012
Pound 1.3086
Aussie 0.7169
India Rupee 69.245
South Korea Won 1132.815
Brazil Real 3.8828
Egypt Pound 17.3063
South Africa Rand 13.9688

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15-APR-2019 :: The Platform Economy
International Trade


The strategy, like big tech’s, is to be the platform, said Bob
Collymore to the Africa Report  “whether it was for the banking
industry, the healthcare industry, the agricultural industry''

Last week, Uber filed with an initial offering amount of $1 billion,
typically a placeholder amount. The company applied to list on the New
York Stock Exchange under the ticker UBER. In the IPO Prospectus, the
word 'Platform' appears more than 700 times. Uber is seriously
ubiquitous and I recall how it arrived here in Nairobi and made its
Gladwellian level move.

“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social
behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.” ―
Malcolm Gladwell. The New High Tech, Millenial, crypto, avocado
economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear
characteristics not unlike Ebola.

Uber cites a preferred metric: monthly active platform consumers,
otherwise known as people who touch one of its services at least once
a month. Uber says it has 91 million MAPCs, more than double the
number in 2016. So now you know that when you call your Uber you are
in fact one of 91m MAPCs. Uber posted a $3b operating Full Year Loss
on revenue of $11.3 billion, bringing total operating losses over the
past three years to more than $10 billion, Thursday’s filing shows. In
a brilliantly counterintuitive move, Uber even said they might never
make a Profit ever.  Ride-hailing revenue grew 95 percent in 2017 from
the previous year, that rate slowed to 33 percent last year. Uber
argues that its share of the entire global transportation business is
less than 1%.  Uber argues its platform positions it to become
all-things transportation, encompassing everything from scooters and
bicycles to freight delivery, driverless vehicles and even flying cars
[Bloomberg]  Uber’s food-delivery business grew 149 percent
year-on-year to $1.5 billion in revenue in 2018. Uber is seeking to
raise about $10b at a valuation North of $100b.

''The punchline is this the largest high-growth tech company that’s
going to be going to the public markets,” David Erickson, a finance
professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School told
Bloomberg.

My perspective is that Investors will look through the accumulated
losses and focus on the Ubiquity of the Platform and that therefore,
these shares will pop meaningfully. Therefore, if the IPO Price range
is between $100b-$110b market Cap, I would be a Buyer looking for a
move towards $150b. This is therefore a Conviction Buy Recommendation
within those parameters.

Jumia Technologies AG listed in NYSE [raised $196 million with the
sale of 13.5 million American depositary receipts at $14.50 each] and
those shares popped as much as +75% at one point. Jumia has more than
4 million customers in 14 African countries, its retail platform isn’t
profitable yet however sales jumped by almost 40 percent last year to
$147.3 million and has accumulated losses of just shy of $1b. There
has been ''off the charts'' debate about whether Jumia should
characterise itself as an ''African'' Company given that its
Headquarters are in Berlin and was initially financed by the German
startup incubator Rocket Internet SE. MTN is its largest Shareholder.
Pernod Ricard SA and Mastercard Inc recently stepped into the
shareholder register.

“It’s an opportunity for retail investors to buy the Africa growth
story, the story of a growing consumer class,” said Steven Grin,
managing partner of Lateral Capital, a New York-based investment
company focused on Africa.

“Rising per-capita incomes, an increasingly young and urban
population, falling internet and data costs, surging mobile-phone
penetration — these favorable long-term trends underpin the rise of
the African online consumer.”

Investors are looking through the accumulated losses, seeing
E-Commerce penetration levels of 1% or less in Africa versus something
like 24% in China and betting that Jumia can parlay its First Mover
Advantage into something like a seriously meaningful head start. Jumia
is higher beta than Uber but on balance is a Buy as well on Fridays
closing Price basis.

Interestingly, last week we witnessed the biggest single day % move in
any share price at the Nairobi Securities Exchange in more than a
decade. Bharat Thakrar pulled a special 3/= dividend Rabbit out of his
Hat and surged WPP Scangroup's share price some +71.57%, an off the
charts price move [once in a decade phenomenon] got absolutely zero
ventilation across our media. This loops me to a comment that the
UNCTAD SG Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi made to me.

He said ''Its all about Platform Visibility. Africa is not visible on
these Uber Platforms.''

I expect the African Platform Economies to be one of the richest and
most rewarding of economies going forward.

read more


Thomson Reuters sees fair value for Uber at $65bn (5times rev multiple analog to Lyft). @Schuldensuehner
International Trade


Uber's rev growth has been declining. After more than doubling in
2017, rev grew 42% in 2018 to $11.27bn. Growth rate dropped by well
over half. Rev growth could slow to 18% in 2019 to $13.3bn

Le leader africain du commerce en ligne, #JumiaNG, a réussi avec
brio son introduction au New York Stock Exchange @NYSE où elle a levé,
ce vendredi un peu plus que les 196 millions de dollars.  @T_IbrahimD

https://twitter.com/T_IbrahimD/status/1117061170307969024

JUMIA est la première Startup du Continent à réussir cette opération.

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What makes Africa's largest e-commerce platform African? @qzafrica's @TheYomiKazeem
International Trade


While the company runs the largest e-commerce business across Africa
with operations in 14 countries including Nigeria, Kenya, Morocco and
Egypt, it is incorporated in Germany, has its headquarters in Dubai
with its central tech team based in Portugal, and as its IPO filing
shows, will be listed in New York.
Being a “German stock corporation” probably means it will pay the
majority of its corporate taxes in Germany, but its subsidiaries will
also pay local taxes in most countries. “There isn’t sufficient
clarity on this matter,” says Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based
financial and investment analyst. “It’s basically called African
because its business is in Africa but its ownership and a lot of the
infrastructure is not on the continent.”
“My standard for saying a startup is African is simple: the idea
originates from Africa and it is founded by an African,” says Victor
Asemota, a Nigerian tech veteran and investor.
“Today, Jumia’s IPO is possible because of Rocket Internet [its parent
company incorporated in Germany].” But having been incorporated
outside the continent, Jumia’s branding as an African company is
“public and investor relations being played at a quite high and
interesting level,” Satchu says. “They want to indigenize their brand
[as] successful brands in Africa tend to be adept at indigenization.
It’s subtle and clever marketing to cloak itself in the righteousness
of the continent and seek to dilute the fact that its ownership is not
on the continent.”
While Jumia positions itself as African—”the leading pan-African
e-commerce platform”—in the S1 filing Amazon and Alibaba’s foothold in
the US and China respectively means they will likely be regarded as
being wholly foreign by local consumers. The other part of the play
would be to “probably look for one of those (Amazon or Alibaba) to
take a stake in the business.”
But Satchu says it’s “absolutely important” to be explicit about
businesses’ identity and roots regardless. “So many incorporations in
Africa prefer smokes and mirrors,” he tells Quartz. “Shining a torch
on these things has to be a good thing.”

read more


The Business of Learning @TheEconomist
International Trade


While private spending on education has not budged in real terms in
the rich world in the past ten years, in China and India it has more
than doubled. The Chinese now spend 5% of household income on
education and the Indians 4%, compared with 2.5% for the Americans and
1% for the Europeans. As a result, private schooling, tuition,
vocational and tertiary education are booming in developing countries
Since brainpower is the primary generator of progress, this burst of
enthusiasm for investing in human capital is excellent news for the
world
The growth of the knowledge economy means that the returns to
education are rising at the same time as the opportunities available
to those without any schooling are shrinking.

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Turkey's Albayrak leaves investors unconvinced in Washington -sources
Emerging Markets


“I don’t think he persuaded anybody, it did not go well,” said the
investor, who attended the conference hosted by investment bank
JPMorgan as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring
meetings kicked off in Washington.
The investor said the softer policy stances recently adopted by the
U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which have led
investors to seek returns in riskier assets, was helping underpin
Turkish markets.
“If it weren’t the case that the Fed and ECB currently present no risk
to emerging markets, I would be a big seller of Turkey,” the investor
said.
The Turkish lira slid 1.4 percent on Friday and the main Turkish stock
index was down 1 percent.

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Economic recovery is set to continue, but duality persists @IMFNews #WEO
Africa


Some 21 countries are expected to sustain growth at 5 percent or more
in 2019. The remaining countries, mostly other resource-dependent
economies, including the largest (Nigeria and South Africa) are set to
face sluggish growth in the near-term.

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Will Africa's historic Free Trade Agreement succeed? African Continental Free Trade Agreement #AfCFTA @AJENews @AJInsideStory @MartineDennis
Africa


Presenter: Martine Dennis
Guests:
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management and an emerging markets economist
Stephen Yeboah - cofounder of Commodity Monitor
Olusegun Okubanjo - founder and managing partner of finance firm OBSIDIAN

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"The coup-makers are in disarray," said Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University in Massachusetts, and a Sudan expert. @business
Africa


Al-Bashir “set up an elaborate political-security system that only he
was capable of running,” and now they’re “struggling with the
conundrum of how to maintain consensus among a divided and militarized
elite, and meet enough of the demands of the protesters to have a
modicum of legitimacy.”

read more


Sudan's Defence Minister Awad Ibn Auf said on Friday that he is stepping down as head of the country's transitional military council, a day after former president Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in a coup.
Africa


Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhan will be the new
head of the transitional military council, Ibn Auf said in a speech
broadcast on state television on Friday.

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2 years he said. he was gone in less than 36 hours. @hervegogo
Africa


Citizens at the sit-in are asked what their demands are:  “The
transfer of power to a civilian government” #SudanUprising
#مدن_السودان_تنتفض   @BSonblast

https://twitter.com/BSonblast/status/1116941809651818496

“The sit-in site looks like a portal into tomorrow’s Sudan.
#SudanUprising  #مدن_السودان_تنتفض @BSonblast

https://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php

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Can protesters stay organized and sustain their movement? What would a civilian led transitional process look like? @AfricaACSS
Africa


The Sudanese military’s move to oust leader Omar al Bashir after 30
years in power brings the Sudan protests to a pivotal movement. Rather
than a climax, however, this action represents a fork in the road of
the transition with much left to be determined in shaping the ultimate
outcome. Here are 5 questions to monitor as this story unfolds:

Will the Military Use Force against the Protesters?

The military’s decision to depose Bashir appears to be based on a
miscalculation that the protesters’ ire was primarily directed at the
long-time ruler. In fact, protesters have been nearly unanimous in
saying that they want to see a real change to the political system and
an end to military government. Protesters are demanding civilian
control and a say for citizens in shaping governmental decisions that
affect people’s day-to-day lives.
In its announcement installing the Military Council as the
transitional authority, the military leadership declared a three month
curfew from 10 pm – 4 am. Seeing the Military Council as simply
replacing one autocratic leader with another, the protesters have
defied the curfew and remain camped outside the Defense Ministry
headquarters. The military will have to decide whether to remove the
protesters by force or seek some form of compromise.

The Sudanese security sector—military units, police, and
intelligence—is highly fragmented.  It is not at all clear that they
would all go along with a violent response to the protests, creating
the real possibility of factional fighting on the streets of Khartoum.
This would be a paradoxical outcome to what has been a determinedly
non-violent movement.

The Military Council should also know that the underlying economic
forces that have led to the rapidly rising inflation and increasingly
difficult living conditions are not going away with Bashir’s removal.
Sudan faces $55 billion in foreign debt and high unemployment. The
military will need to consider that it requires public support and the
expertise of the civilian professionals to help stabilize the economy.
Access to significant international support will depend on having a
credible economic team in place that is part of a viable political
transition.

Can Protesters Stay Organized and Sustain Their Movement?

The protests in Sudan have been remarkable for their organization,
restraint, non-violence, and national pride. They have been led by
middle-class professionals, students, women, and interfaith leaders
who are articulating a different vision for political life in Sudan.
They have been joined by Sudanese from all walks of life and across
dozens of towns and cities. This has provided the protests tremendous
public credibility.

What Would a Civilian Led Transitional Process Look Like?

Should a civilian led transition emerge, what should this process
entail?  Lessons from other transitional arrangements highlight the
importance of creating an apolitical transitional body to build as
broad a base of support for the transition process as possible. The
direction taken by the Sudan Professional Association in leading the
protests certainly provides a good starting point. One means of
reinforcing this apolitical posture of a transitional government is to
require that any member of its leadership not compete for political
office in the subsequent election.

What Role Will External Actors Play?

Given its strategic location and ties to both Africa and the Arab
World, many external actors may have an interest in trying to tilt the
outcome of the Sudan transition. Complicating these considerations is
that Bashir has overseen regularly shifting relationships with key
neighbors, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey among others. It is perhaps
understandable, then, that it does not appear that any regional actors
are calling for the restoration of Bashir. The most immediate concern
is that an external actor interested in maintaining the status quo or
enhancing its strategic posture may intervene to try and prop up the
Military Council and perhaps provide it the rationale to use force
against the protesters. China’s interests in Sudan have recently been
upgraded given its position on China’s 21st century Maritime Silk
Road. Russia has been showing increased interest in Sudan in recent
years as part of its new push into Africa. Consequently, these actors
may see value in stymieing a democratic transition.
Should a transitional civilian government emerge, there is also the
question of how quickly international financial institutions and
Western donors would be able to step in and help stabilize the
economy. Doing so will be necessary if Sudanese reformers are to have
the space needed to sustain the transition. A lagging economy,
persistently high unemployment, and perceptions that nothing has
changed are common reasons for democratic transitions to stall (and
rearguard elements to stir up nostalgia for an earlier era).

How Will Islamist Groups Align with the Reform Movement?

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10 NOV 14 :: We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation - 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can't go.
Africa


We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

read more


10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa
Africa


Thousands of protesters had thronged the streets of Ouagadougou and
sacked buildings including Parliament. A group of young activists
themselves the ‘Citizen’s Broom’, led by a rapper named Smockey, led
the protests that culminated in the storming of parliament.
In a gesture similar to the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, or Muammar
Gaddafi in 2011, Beautiful Blaise Compaoré’s statue in Bobo-Dioulassou
was also torn down.
The tipping point for this accelerated sequence of events was
President Compaoré stacking parliament in order to extend the
presidential term limit. There are plenty of African presidents who
are seeking to pull off the same magic trick and events in Ouagadougou
have surely put them on notice.
Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab
Spring, this is the Black Spring”.
During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all
commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap
the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the
State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would
bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.
We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about
acceleration, momentum and speed best characterised by the Ger- man
word ‘Blitzkrieg’.

Cometh the Moment Cometh the Woman @iAlaaSalah A C21st African
Revolutionary Icon? The Old Men are being undone by Girl Power How
Beautiful #GirlPower #SudanUprising  #مدن_السودان_تنتفض

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/1116217561044201473

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What a strange line-up in Sudan against "people's power" @bhadrapunchline Sudanese spy chief 'met head of @Mossad to discuss Bashir succession plan' @MiddleEastEye
Africa


Munich meeting between Salah Gosh and Yossi Cohen took place with
Saudi Arabia and allies seeking to install 'their man' in power in
Khartoum, army source tells MEE
Sudanese intelligence chief Salah Gosh held secret talks with the head
of Mossad in Germany last month as part of a plot hatched by Israel's
Gulf allies to elevate him to the presidency when Omar al-Bashir is
toppled from power, a senior Sudanese military source has told Middle
East Eye.
Gosh, the head of Sudan's National Intelligence and Security Services
(NISS), met Yossi Cohen on the sidelines of the Munich Security
Conference in a meeting arranged by Egyptian intermediaries with the
backing of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the source said.
The Saudis, the Emiratis and the Egyptians see Gosh as "their man,"
the source said, in a behind-the-scenes power struggle now taking
place in Khartoum after months of anti-government protests that many
now see as the beginning of the end of Bashir''s three-decade rule.

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Europe could also face a threat to its energy security, given that Algeria provides a third of the gas consumed in Europe and as much as half of the gas consumed in Spain
Africa


En route pour #Lubumbashi (Haut-Katanga) où il va présider le
Conseil Supérieur de la Défense, le Chef de l'Etat, Félix-Antoine
Tshisekedi a pris place à bord d'un régulier #CongoAirways entouré de
ses compatriotes.

https://twitter.com/Presidence_RDC/status/1116615935123607555

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Africa's Booming Cities Are Running Out of Water @business
Africa


As water supplies in Ghana’s capital grew increasingly erratic,
Beatrice Kabuki stopped customers from using her grocery store’s
bathrooms and installed a plastic storage tank at her home.
“The taps flow once a week and usually at night, so we stay awake to
fetch what we can store,” Kabuki, 35, said in an interview in Accra.
“We mostly augment by buying water from tankers.”
Cities and towns in several other African nations including
Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Ivory Coast have been plagued by similar
water shortages in recent months, manifestations of a global supply
squeeze brought on by drought, population growth, urbanization and
insufficient investment in dams and other infrastructure.
Water use has risen about 1 percent a year since the 1980s and more
than 2 billion people now live in countries experiencing high water
stress, the United Nations said in its World Water Development Report
released in Geneva on Tuesday. It projects demand will grow as much as
30 percent by 2050.
“Stress levels will continue to increase as demand for water grows and
the effects of climate change intensify,” the UN said in the report.
The scourge is set to become exponentially worse in Africa -- the UN
expects the population of the world’s poorest continent to almost
double to 2.5 billion by 2050, and that 59 percent will reside in
urban areas by then, up from 43 percent now. A massive increase in
agricultural production will be required to feed everyone, compounding
the pressures caused by surging household demand for water.
Crumbling infrastructure has compounded the effect of a crippling
drought in cash-strapped Zimbabwe, resulting in water rationing in its
two largest cities, Harare and Bulawayo. In Maputo, Mozambique’s
capital, supply has been cut off on alternating days since January
after dam levels fell to less than a quarter of their capacity.
Taps in Cape Town, South Africa’s tourist mecca, came close to running
dry last year before good winter rains brought respite from the
region’s worst drought on record. The nightmare of running out of
water became a reality last year in Bouake, Ivory Coast’s
second-largest city, when rains failed. The government was forced to
use tankers to truck in emergency supplies, while thousands of people
temporarily relocated.
Water shortages in Accra, which mostly gets regular rainfall, are
mainly attributed to its inadequate and poorly maintained pipes,
pumping stations and purification plants. About 4.9 million people
live in the city and its surrounds, including the port city of Tema.
Even nations with plentiful water resources may be unable to build
sufficient dams, pipelines, pumping stations and purification plants
to ensure adequate supply.
Kabuki, the storekeeper, can no longer stomach being unable to flush
her toilets when her stockpiled water runs out and has run out of
patience with the authorities.
“You want to know how frustrating it is?” she asked. “It is very
unpleasant and dehumanizing for me as a woman. I am actually planning
to relocate to a house with a guaranteed water supply.”

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#Jumia Surges on U.S. Debut as Africa's @amazon Goes Public @business @JohnHBowker
Africa


Jumia Technologies AG shares soared by 75 percent on their first day
of trading in New York, as investors rushed to buy into the company’s
plans to extend online shopping services across Africa.
The stock traded at $25.46 as of 4:34 p.m. local time on Friday,
valuing the company at more than $1.9 billion. Jumia earlier raised
$196 million with the sale of 13.5 million American depositary
receipts at $14.50 each.
The listing caps seven years of growth for Jumia, which was founded by
38-year-old French entrepreneurs Sacha Poignonnec and Jeremy Hodara in
2012 and now has more than 4 million customers in 14 African
countries.
While the retail platform isn’t profitable, sales jumped by almost 40
percent last year to 130.6 million euros ($147.3 million)
“This is about awareness,” Poignonnec said in a phone interview.
“Millions and millions of Africans are yet to realize the benefits of
e-commerce.”
The company has headquarters in Berlin and got early funding from
German startup incubator Rocket Internet SE, while its biggest
shareholder is MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest mobile-phone company.
More recent investors include French drinks maker Pernod Ricard SA and
Mastercard Inc., which put in a combined 125 million euros in the
build up to the initial public offering.
Often tagged Africa’s Amazon.com, Jumia operates in countries such as
Nigeria and Ivory Coast where the U.S. giant lacks distribution
infrastructure and much presence.
The company has developed a logistics arm that includes pick-up and
drop-off points to combat vague addresses, and also lets customers
make mobile-phone payments if they don’t have access to banking
services.
“It’s an opportunity for retail investors to buy the Africa growth
story, the story of a growing consumer class,” said Steven Grin,
managing partner of Lateral Capital, a New York-based investment
company focused on Africa.
“Rising per-capita incomes, an increasingly young and urban
population, falling internet and data costs, surging mobile-phone
penetration — these favorable long-term trends underpin the rise of
the African online consumer.”
The offering was led by Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Canada,
Citigroup Inc. and Berenberg Capital Markets LLC. Citadel Securities
was the designated market maker.
Poignonnec and Hodora met while colleagues at McKinsey & Co., with the
former spending time in Ivory Coast working for the U.S. consultancy.
“E-commerce is becoming very big everywhere,” Poignonnec said. “We
looked at the opportunity in Africa. It’s a big opportunity to help
buyers and help sellers.”

read more





Nigeria will have the world's third-largest population by 2050. Without robust economic growth, that's a recipe for disaster via @bopinion
Africa


One of humanity’s most hopeful developments in recent decades has been
the dramatic drop in extreme poverty. In 2000, some 1.4 billion people
lived at or below the global poverty line of $1.90 a day. Today, the
number is about 600 million.

This remarkable change is mainly due to growth in China and India:
Much of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Nigeria, has failed to share
in the success. A decade ago, Nigeria had far fewer people in extreme
poverty than either China or India; today, according to data compiled
by the World Data Lab, it has more than both combined. The count
stands at more than 90 million, and has risen both in absolute terms
and as a share of the total. Nigeria’s young and fast-growing
population is projected by the United Nations to double in size by
2050, making it the world’s third-biggest. Even assuming that the
proportion of Nigerians living in extreme poverty stops rising as
quickly as it has in recent years, it’s on course to remain
extraordinarily high for the foreseeable future.

One wonders whether a politician known as “Baba Go Slow” is up to the task.

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.93% 2019
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.74% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Passengers enjoying the air-conditioned comfort of the new train
between Addis Ababa and Djibouti City Credit Marcus Westberg for
@nytimes

https://nyti.ms/2GkAm5s

Sunset over the limestone pillars of Lake Abbé, in southwest
Djibouti.Credit Marcus Westberg @nytimes

https://nyti.ms/2GkAm5s

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At the Harar spice market, drifts of dried chilies elicited sneezes from browsing shoppers.CreditMarcus Westberg for @nytimes
Africa


City of Djins

Despite its soporific air, Dire Dawa, effectively the railway’s
midpoint, is Ethiopia’s second largest city, a fact it owes to the old
French-built train line that had fallen in and out of use since its
inauguration in 1917. A village backwater a hundred years ago, Dire
Dawa grew over the century into a major transit hub for Ethiopian
exports, not least khat, a mild herbal stimulant, which is farmed
intensively in the surrounding hills. But the place we were more
interested in was a 30-mile minibus ride east. The train had availed
us the chance to visit the Islamic outpost of Harar.

It was discombobulating, after the prim modernity of the train, to
plunge into Harar Jugol, about 120 acres of tight-knit alleyways,
encircled by 15-foot walls, which is widely considered to be the
fourth holiest site in Islam. We stayed in a “gegar,” a traditional
Harari home which had been converted into a guesthouse, where we slept
in a garret that was formerly a storage room for grain. In the
adjacent main room, the owner and her friends drank thick coffee on
ornate carpets. It was an oasis that belied the kaleidoscopic bustle
outside.

At nightfall, two men headed out of the city carrying a basket of
meat-scraps, then crouched in a clearing and called out into a patch
of scrubland. We looked on as eight spotted hyenas emerged from the
shadows to feed from their hands. Over the years, this nightly ritual
has become a draw for tourists, who gather to shoot photos under the
beam of car headlights. But Emaj told us it also has a more
supernatural purpose: to keep the dogs close, because of the ghosts.
The hyenas have their own entrances into the city, where they are said
to be the only creature capable of seeing and swallowing Djins,
spirits of Harar’s past inhabitants, sometimes malevolent, who stalk
the alleys under cover of darkness.

But by now our entire carriage had been taken over by Djiboutians bent
on one final khat blowout before reaching home, and the resulting
atmosphere left me feeling like the only sober person at a party awash
with cheap cocaine. Only with sunset did the frenzied conversation
subside into mere garrulousness. Mountains receded to desert, acacia
to scrub, as we slid imperceptibly downhill toward the Red Sea.

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In a striking speech delivered from deep below the ocean's surface, the Seychelles president @StateHouseSey is making a global plea for stronger protection of the "beating blue heart of our planet." @AP
Africa


President Danny Faure’s call for action, the first-ever live speech
from an underwater submersible, comes from one of the many island
nations threatened by global warming.
The president is speaking during a visit to an ambitious British-led
science expedition exploring the Indian Ocean depths. Oceans cover
over two-thirds of the world’s surface but remain, for the most part,
uncharted.
Faure’s speech says that “this issue is bigger than all of us, and we
cannot wait for the next generation to solve it. We are running out of
excuses to not take action, and running out of time.”

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02-NOV-2015 The Seychelles @TheStarKenya
Africa


I am writing this article from Mahe, which is the one of 115 islands
that make up the Seychelles archipelago, which lies 1,500 Kilometres
off East Africa. Seychelles has a population of 90,024 and that is the
smallest population of any independent African state. The minister for
Finance, Trade and The Blue Economy Jean-Paul Adam informed me that
the Seychelles receives tourists three times its population every
year. If Kenya was to receive the same ratio of tourists, we would be
welcoming 120 million tourists a year. The minister described to me
how the Seychelles navigated the 2008 financial crisis [debt to GDP
soared close to 125 per cent] and the Republic defaulted, but now runs
an annual surplus of over five per cent.

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Millers have refuted government's claims that there are 21 million bags of maize in the country amid a biting shortage that has seen price of flour hit Sh119 for a two- kilogramme packet. @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


The processors said they had increased the price of maize by over
Sh1,000 above what the government is paying farmers but still could
not get stocks from producers.
“We highly doubt that there are 21 million bags of maize in the
country right now. If that were the case, then we would be having this
maize coming to millers because of the competitive price we are
offering,” said millers off the record for fear of reprisals.
Of the reported 21 million bags of maize available in the country, it
was estimated that stocks held at household level are 13 million bags,
representing 61 percent of the total produce.
Traders have three million bags while millers are in possession of
680,588 bags, which is just three percent of the available stocks.

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@BamburiCement reports FY 2018 EPS -46.035% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           125.00
Total Shares Issued:          362959275.00
Market Capitalization:        45,369,909,375
EPS:             2.45
PE:              51.02

Bamburi Cement Limited FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs.
31st December 2017
FY Turnover 37.262b vs. 35.974b +3.580%
FY Total operating costs [36.427b] vs. [31.745b] +14.749%
FY Operating profit 835m vs. 4.229b -80.255%
FY Finance income 103m vs. 150m -31.333%
FY Finance costs [258m] vs. [263m] -1.901%
FY Profit before tax 680m vs. 4.116b -83.479%
FY Profit for the year 614m vs. 1.973b -68.880%
EPS 2.45 vs. 4.54 -46.035%
Final dividend 4.10 vs.1.50 +173.333%
Total dividend 5.10 vs. 4.00 +27.500%
Equity attributable to owners of the company 29.711b vs. 29.372b +1.154%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 963m vs. 2.040b -52.794%
HIGHLIGHTS OF 2018 FINANCIAL YEAR
Revenue
The Group's turnover grew by 3.7% from KES 36 billion in 2017 to KES
37.2 billion in 2018. Cement volumes grow by 9%. The Group achieved
this growth despite a market decline of 5% in Kenya, our biggest
market, and a flat cement market in Uganda.
Increased competitive pressure fuelled by a growing gap between
installed cement grinding capacity and the shrinking market has played
a key role in market dynamics.
However, the overall topline growth in a declining market is a clear
indication that the execution of our "Building for Growth" strategy
has put us on solid track to consolidate our market leadership
position.
Operating Profit
The Group operating profits reduced to KES 0.8 billion in 2018 from
KES 4.2 billion in the prior year. Despite the increase in turnover,
there was a higher cost environment relating to higher energy costs
(power, coal and petcoke), imported clinker and raw materials' input
prices.
Uganda was further impacted by additional provisioning mainly on
receivables. The net result of all these being that operating profit
in Kenya remained flat compared to 2017 and declined in Uganda.
Cash flow
Cash generated from operating activities at KES 3 billion was lower
than for prior year at KES 5 billion mainly on account of lower
operating profit. Uganda closed the year in a net borrowing position,
while Kenya remained cash positive.
2019 OUTLOOK
In the second half of 2018, the Group completed the first phase of the
capacity expansion projects in both Kenya and Uganda, at a total cost
of KES 7.9 billion. These have put us in a strong position to leverage
growth opportunities in our markets and to further solidify our market
leadership position.
The market is expected to rebound in both Kenya and Uganda in 2019.
However, the difficulties experienced at the Ugandan/Rwanda border
have significantly impacted exports to Rwanda from Uganda and the
Group hopes this matter is resolved expeditiously.
The Group will continue to execute "Building for Growth" strategic
agenda, while maintaining focus on cost optimisation in order to grow
profitably and competitively.
DIVIDEND
An interim dividend of KES 1.00 per ordinary share (KES 2.50 per
ordinary share in 2017) amounting to KES 363 million (KES 903 million
in 2017) was paid on 26 October 2018.
The Board of Directors recommends payment of a final dividend of KES
4.10 per ordinary share (KES 1.50 per ordinary share paid in 2017)
subject to approval by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting. The
final dividend, amounting to KES 1.49 billion (KES 544 million in
2017), when added to the interim dividend already paid, brings the
total dividend for the year to KES 5.10 per ordinary share (KES 4.00
per ordinary share in 2017).

Conclusions


Went for market share in a depressed market.
Revenue +3.58% but Operating Costs +14.749% crimped profits
Dividend Pay Out is 5.10 and final is worth 3.28% of Yield.
Its a Darwinian moment in tis sector and they are sowing that they are
one of the fittest in fact.

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@WPPScangroup share price data and FY 2018 Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price: 19.65 Market Cap: $84.161m EPS: 1.37 PE: 14.343

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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