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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 16th of April 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Africa


Macro Thoughts

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.@UBER applied to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker UBER. In the IPO Prospectus, the word 'Platform' appears more than 700 times.
Africa


Uber is seriously ubiquitous and I recall how it arrived here in
Nairobi and made its Gladwellian level move.

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The New High Tech, Millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not unlike Ebola.
Africa


Uber cites a preferred metric: monthly active platform consumers,
otherwise known as people who touch one of its services at least once
a month. Uber says it has 91 million MAPCs, more than double the
number in 2016. So now you know that when you call your Uber you are
in fact one of 91m MAPCs. Uber posted a $3b operating Full Year Loss
on revenue of $11.3 billion, bringing total operating losses over the
past three years to more than $10 billion, Thursday’s filing shows. In
a brilliantly counterintuitive move, Uber even said they might never
make a Profit ever.  Ride-hailing revenue grew 95 percent in 2017 from
the previous year, that rate slowed to 33 percent last year. Uber
argues that its share of the entire global transportation business is
less than 1%.  Uber argues its platform positions it to become
all-things transportation, encompassing everything from scooters and
bicycles to freight delivery, driverless vehicles and even flying cars
[Bloomberg]  Uber’s food-delivery business grew 149 percent
year-on-year to $1.5 billion in revenue in 2018. Uber is seeking to
raise about $10b at a valuation North of $100b.

''The punchline is this the largest high-growth tech company that’s
going to be going to the public markets,” David Erickson, a finance
professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School told
Bloomberg.

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Jumia Technologies AG listed in NYSE [raised $196 million with the sale of 13.5 million American depositary receipts at $14.50 each] and those shares popped as much as +75% at one point.
Africa


Jumia has more than 4 million customers in 14 African countries, its
retail platform isn’t profitable yet however sales jumped by almost 40
percent last year to $147.3 million and has accumulated losses of just
shy of $1b. There has been ''off the charts'' debate about whether
Jumia should characterise itself as an ''African'' Company given that
its Headquarters are in Berlin and was initially financed by the
German startup incubator Rocket Internet SE. MTN is its largest
Shareholder. Pernod Ricard SA and Mastercard Inc recently stepped into
the shareholder register.

“Rising per-capita incomes, an increasingly young and urban
population, falling internet and data costs, surging mobile-phone
penetration — these favorable long-term trends underpin the rise of
the African online consumer.”

Investors are looking through the accumulated losses, seeing
E-Commerce penetration levels of 1% or less in Africa versus something
like 24% in China and betting that Jumia can parlay its First Mover
Advantage into something like a seriously meaningful head start.

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$EURUSD looks like a continuation pattern, not a reversal @TacticalCharts 1.1294
Africa


This aligns perfectly with the $DXY breaking 97.60 to the upside..

Home Thoughts

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01-APR-2019 :: There is certainly a Fin de siecle even apocalyptic mood afoot.
Africa


WB Yeats’ The Second Coming
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction,
while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;-
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.

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"Sooner or later there'd be a bang, a shudder, a roar. Those four columns would open apart like a flower & everything else up here--stone, wood, iron, glass--would slide down into the church like the fall of a mountain...."
Africa


"Sooner or later there’d be a bang, a shudder, a roar. Those four
columns would open apart like a flower & everything else up
here––stone, wood, iron, glass––would slide down into the church like
the fall of a mountain...".
William Golding, The Spire (1964) @RobGMacfarlane

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Henry VI of England was crowned king of France in Notre-Dame in 1431. #NotreDame @afneil
Africa


Napoleon Bonaparte was crowned emperor in ND in 1804.
Joan of Arc was beatified there by Pope Pius X in 1909.
Charles de Gaulle went there almost immediately Paris was liberated 1945.

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YouTube's automated fact-checking tool probably made things worse by misclassifying the #NotreDame tragedy as a 9/11 conspiracy. #NotreDame @profcarroll
Africa


Humans may have built cathedrals but they haven’t yet built machines
that can understand when cathedrals are burning down.

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The shimmering heat of the high sun, the mirage behind the giraffes and the composition itself have combined to create an almost surreal image. @David_Yarrow
Africa


It’s an “animal Times Square” in the heat of East Africa. I have never
had this number of giraffes all within 100 yards of me.

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Sadly @POTUS is the Puppeteer here @hervegogo
Law & Politics


Conclusions

.@Potus wants to turn it binary and face off with Ilhan and
politically its a very neat move because there is no way that Ilhan
[of whom I think highly] can be the face of the US resistance.

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House panels issue subpoenas to @DeutscheBankAG , others in @realDonaldTrump probe @Reuters
Law & Politics


Two U.S. House of Representatives committees have issued subpoenas to
multiple financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank AG, for
information on President Donald Trump’s finances, the panels’
Democratic leaders said on Monday.

“The potential use of the U.S. financial system for illicit purposes
is a very serious concern. The Financial Services Committee is
exploring these matters, including as they may involve the president
and his associates, as thoroughly as possible,” the committee’s chair,
Maxine Waters, said in a statement.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff said in a statement
the subpoenas issued included a “friendly subpoena to Deutsche Bank.”

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07-AUG-2017 :: Any financial expert will tell you that President Trump's financial affairs are a "smoking gun."
Law & Politics


Any financial expert will tell you that President Trump’s financial
affairs are a ‘’smoking gun.’’ Deutsche Bank loans were surely
‘’mirror’’ transactions, where Deutsche Bank was a commission agent
interposed between Trump and the real lender. All those sales where
nTrump proclaimed himself a ‘’genius’’ because they were so
off-market, we would all be incredulous, were essentially just that
‘’incredible’’. There is a prima facie case here and its in plain
sight.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1287
Dollar Index 97.02
Japan Yen 111.895
Swiss Franc 1.0053
Pound 1.3082
Aussie 0.7146
India Rupee 69.6175
South Korea Won 1135.45
Brazil Real 3.8722
Egypt Pound 17.3210
South Africa Rand 14.0355

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'Flash Boys' Trading Bots Are Running Wild on Crypto Exchanges @business
International Trade


Special arbitrage bots are anticipating and profiting from ordinary
users’ trades on decentralized exchanges, which let them trade more
directly, the authors said in a report released last week. The firms
that deploy the autonomous trading programs manage to get priority
ordering by paying higher fees, and use that advantage for practices
such as front running, in which traders can see orders from others and
manage to place their own first.

While decentralized exchanges -- called DEXes -- still account for
only a small fraction of overall trading volume, their usage is
expected to grow, thanks to efforts of companies like Binance, the
world’s largest centralized crypto exchange. Binance is building out
its own decentralized exchange, and many other centralized crypto
exchanges are following suit. What’s more, similar practices are
likely rampant on centralized crypto exchanges as well, Ari Juels, a
professor at Cornell Tech, said.

"We have no idea what the extent of the malfeasance is on centralized
exchanges," he said in a presentation last week during a blockchain
conference at Cornell Tech’s New York City campus. “If we extrapolate
from what we’ve seen on DEXes, it could well be on the order of
billions of dollars."

The crypto bots’ use can be so lucrative, it would pay for a miner to
execute a so-called 51-percent attack, in which computers take over
the network of a particular coin, Juels said in a later phone
interview.

"We explain that DEX design flaws threaten underlying blockchain
security," the eight authors said in the paper. "These bots exhibit
many similar market-exploiting behaviors -- front running, aggressive
latency optimization, etc. -- common on Wall Street, as revealed in
the popular Michael Lewis expose ‘Flash Boys.”’

The authors of the paper have been tracking a select six decentralized
exchanges in real time since October, and also examined historical
data. Just on the six exchanges -- a fraction of total number of DEXes
-- they spotted more than 500 bots currently making up to $20,000 a
day via such activities, lead author Philip Daian said in a phone
interview. Exchanges where activities like front running take place
include EtherDelta and Bancor, the researchers said.

Bancor says it has features that “neutralize” threats of bot
manipulation. The Swiss-based company, which functions as a market
maker, does this, in part, by setting maximum gas prices to ensure
attackers can’t bid more to skip the line, said Nate Hindman, director
of communications at Bancor.

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08-APR-2019 :: Therefore, in many respects whomsoever controls this Spigot because this is real cash can control the World.
Commodities


Depending on prices, oil is estimated to represent 2 percent to 3
percent of global gross domestic product. At the current price of $70
per barrel, the annual value of global oil output is $2.5 trillion.

Trading in derivatives such as oil futures and options is mainly
dollar denominated. The top two global energy exchanges, ICE and CME,
traded a billion lots of oil derivati- ves in 2018 with a nominal
value of about $5 trillion [Reuters].
The c21st Oil Economy is a very big deal and Ryszard Kapuściński who
wrote as follows about the oil and petrodollar dollar economy in Shah
of Shahs.

“Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without
work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetizes thought,
blurs vision, corrupts.” Ryszard Kapuś- ciński, Shah of Shahs.

“Oil kindles extraordinary emo- tions and hopes, since oil is above
all a great temptation. It is the tempta- tion of ease, wealth,
strength, fortu- ne, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that
squirts obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a
rustling shower of money.”

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Turkey Lira drops beyond 5.80 per Dollar following "s**t show" of #Turkish FinMin. Berat Albayrak held closed-door meeting w/100s of investors during IMF-World Bank meetings in DC @Schuldensuehner 5.7925
Emerging Markets


#Turkey Lira drops beyond 5.80 per Dollar following "s**t show" of
#Turkish FinMin. Berat Albayrak held closed-door meeting w/100s of
investors during IMF-World Bank meetings in DC, & some called it the
worst they've ever had w/high-ranking govt official

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Met Deputy Head of the Transitional Military Council today. Not to endorse or confer legitimacy. But to stress steps UK wants to see taken to improve situation in Sudan. @FCOIrfan #SudanUprising
Africa


Met Deputy Head of the Transitional Military Council today. Not to
endorse or confer legitimacy. But to stress steps UK wants to see
taken to improve situation in Sudan. @FCOIrfan #SudanUprising
#مدن_السودان_تنتفض

https://twitter.com/FCOIrfan/status/1117723026102149120

Top request was no violence and no attempt to forcibly break the sit in.

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Africa


We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

“Our demands are clear and have not yet been achieved, why would
we go home? Our sit-in is the most powerful weapon in our hands,” the
SPA said in a tweet. #SudanUprising  #مدن_السودان_تنتفض

http://bit.ly/2KEqKH0

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Zimbabwe Asks Britain to Help Compensate White Farmers, SM Says @bpolitics
Africa


Zimbabwe’s government asked Britain to help pay more than $3 billion
required to compensate white commercial farmers whose land was
expropriated, the Sunday Mail reported, citing President Emmerson
Mnangagwa.
Britain previously pledged financial and technical assistance to
Zimbabwe for land redistribution under the so-called Lancaster House
agreement that ended Zimbabwe’s independence war, the Harare-based
newspaper said.
In 2000, the government seized farms belonging to mostly white
commercial farmers and replaced them with black farmers, saying the
move was meant to redress colonial imbalances. The southern African
country has budgeted RTGS$53 million ($16.7 million) this year for
interim compensation.

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Abu Dhabi's Privinvest sues Mozambique in debt scandal: spokesman
Africa


Abu Dhabi-based shipbuilder Privinvest said on Monday it had begun
arbitration proceedings to claim compensation against three Mozambican
state-owned companies at the center of a $2 billion debt scandal.
Privinvest’s claim comes nearly two months after Mozambique named the
company in a lawsuit against firms involved in arranging loans meant
primarily to fund a fleet of fishing boats but which ended up tipping
Mozambique into a debt crisis. The U.S. Justice Department alleges
several people, including a former employee of Privinvest, facilitated
$200 million in bribes and kickbacks to themselves and government
officials from the $2 billion loans. The loans were not disclosed to
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as required for those nations
seeking financial assistance, and included an $850 million “tuna bond”
to finance a fleet of fishing boats in 2013. In a statement,
Privinvest spokesman Jeffrey Birnbaum did not specify the amount of
money being claimed for breaching contractual supply agreements. He
declined to tell Reuters what arbitration mechanism was being used or
where it was taking place.
The company had signed contracts with three Mozambican state-owned
companies - Mozambique Asset Management, Ematum and ProIndicus - to
supply ships, run shipyards and provide maritime security for the
country.
The southern African state admitted in 2016 to the undisclosed
lending, prompting the IMF and foreign donors to cut off support. That
triggered a currency collapse and a default on Mozambique’s sovereign
debt. It is still struggling with the economic impact.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.45% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.0437

https://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=f&a=&w=&v=d12

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.335

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +15.49% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.08% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.96% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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.@IMFNews tips Kenya economy to hit Sh10trn this year [a quid pro quo re the GDP denominator?] @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


The size of Kenya’s economy is projected to reach the Sh10.1 trillion
mark this year, the latest statistical estimates by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) have shown.
This will mark the largest absolute expansion in recent years, with
the gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to rise by Sh1.1 trillion
from Sh9 trillion in 2018.
In percentage terms, the growth this year is estimated at 5.83
percent, a slight decrease from 5.95 percent last year.
If the IMF projections hold out, Kenya’s economy could grow to Sh15.7
trillion in 2023.
The country expects to start commercial oil exports in 2022, a move
that is expected to boost the GDP considerably.

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Kenyan Tea Growers Send Workers Home After Drought Cuts Harvest in Half @markets @eombok
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan tea growers sent approximately half of their workers on leave
or deployed them to non-core duties due to a prolonged drought that’s
halved production at leaf-processing factories.
“We are operating for three days a week because there is no crop to
pluck,” Kenya Tea Growers Association’s Chief Executive Officer Apollo
Kiarii said by phone Tuesday. “About half the number of workers who
are supposed to run the operation fully are not working. We are
supposed to be operating for six days in a week.”
Companies under the Kenya Tea Growers Association employ as many as
55,000 workers, Kiarii said. Kenya is the world’s biggest black tea
exporter and earned 141 billion shillings ($1.4 billion) from a record
crop of 492.9 million kilograms in 2018.

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.@KRACare says it wants 1.5pc of your net pay by May 9 to fund Uhuru's housing dream @dailynation
Kenyan Economy


In a newspaper advertisement on Tuesday, the Housing ministry and the
Kenya Revenue Authority announced that the housing fund levy “has come
into effect”, meaning every employed Kenyan must remit 1.5 per cent of
their basic salary for April to the National Housing Development Fund.
Employers are also required to send a figure matching the employees’
deductions to the Housing fund.

“The employers are required to deduct and remit the levy together with
other statutory levies from both the employer and the employee by the
9th of each succeeding month together with other payroll statutory
deductions. The first contribution shall be due by May 9, 2019,” the
advertisement stated.

That means that if a person’s basic salary is Sh50,000, some Sh750 of
that will be retained by their employer to be remitted to the Housing
fund.
The employer will also pay Sh750, meaning the company will send
Sh1,500 to the National Housing Development Fund.
However, if the total exceeds Sh5,000, the government says it will not
take a coin more.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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