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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 17th of April 2019

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

Macro Thoughts

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Who Owns @Huawei ? Christopher Balding Fulbright University Vietnam Donald C. Clarke George Washington University Law School
Law & Politics

As Huawei has come under increasing scrutiny over the last several
months, the question of who really owns and controls it has come to
the fore. Huawei calls itself “employee-owned,” but this claim is
questionable, and the corporate structure described on its website is
misleading. A number of pertinent facts about Huawei’s structure and
ownership are in fact well known and have been outlined many times in
the Chinese media, but the myth of Huawei’s employee ownership seems
to persist outside of China. This article, drawing on publicly
available sources such as media reports, corporate databases, and
court cases, aims to refute this myth once and for all.
In summary, we find the following:
• The Huawei operating company is 100% owned by a holding company,
which is in turn approximately 1% owned by Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei
and 99% owned by an entity called a “trade union committee” for the
holding company.
• We know nothing about the internal governance procedures of the
trade union committee. We do not know who the committee members or
other trade union leaders are, or how they are selected.
• Trade union members have no right to assets held by a trade union.
• What have been called “employee shares” in “Huawei” are in fact at
most contractual interests in a profit-sharing scheme.
• Given the public nature of trade unions in China, if the ownership
stake of the trade union committee is genuine, and if the trade union
and its committee function as trade unions generally function in
China, then Huawei may be deemed effectively state-owned.
• Regardless of who, in a practical sense, owns and controls Huawei,
it is clear that the employees do not.

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics

Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng You will recall that Presidents
Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at
the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec
[2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and finished it all off with
caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and fresh cream, a dinner
that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the dinner Guests broke out
into spontaneous applause thereafter.

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Basically, no athlete has ever scaled the heights @TigerWoods has and, consequently, none have plummeted to the depths he has either. @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics

If you simplify the equation, the sheer latitude of Tiger’s heaven and
hell becomes even more compelling. We are almost 20 years into this
century, a significant enough chunk of time to safely make the
assumption that Tiger is the single, most influential athlete of the
21st century.
Tiger became the most famous athlete in the world playing a sport that
roughly 98% of the planet has never tried.

“I thought I could get away with whatever I wanted to,” he said. “I
felt that I had worked hard my entire life and deserved to enjoy all
the temptations around me. I felt I was entitled. Thanks to money and
fame, I didn’t have to go far to find them. I was wrong. I was

Truth is, he could get away with whatever he wanted until he could not
anymore, which leads us back to a historic Georgia afternoon in April
2019. Even the most cynical amongst us had to feel something. After
all, he had been through, including global humiliation and an endless
string of debilitating physical impediments and surgeries, there was
no denying Tiger was human now.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1319
Dollar Index 96.85
Japan Yen 111.99
Swiss Franc 1.0070
Pound 1.3054
Aussie 0.7199
India Rupee 69.5125
South Korea Won 1134.96
Brazil Real 3.9052
Egypt Pound 17.2854
South Africa Rand 13.9765

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Brent 72.08 YTD high @sunchartist

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Sudan's new defacto head Abdelfatah Burhan praises the "special relationship" between Sudan and Saudi Arabia & the UAE yesterday, as a joint delegation arrives in Khartoum and meets with him at the military compound @YousraElbagir

Sudan's new defacto head Abdelfatah Burhan praises the "special
relationship" between Sudan and Saudi Arabia & the UAE yesterday, as a
joint delegation arrives in Khartoum and meets with him at the
military compound - where people are still sitting in, in protest.

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Zimbabwe nearly doubles bread price as economic woes mount @ReutersAfrica

Bread now costs 3.50 RTGS dollars a loaf, up from 1.80 on Monday,
according to prices displayed by most shops visited by Reuters in the
capital, Harare.
“Bread has now become a luxury. How many people can afford it at this
rate?” said Sarah Chisvo, a mother of three who was picking up
groceries in a supermarket in central Harare. “The government needs to
do something before this gets out of hand.”
Zimbabwe ditched its own currency for the U.S. dollar and other
currencies in 2009, after hyperinflation reached 500 billion percent
the previous year.
In February, faced with acute shortages of U.S. dollars, Zimbabwe
introduced a new currency, called the Real Time Gross Settlement
dollar. The RTGS has been losing value ever since, forcing companies
to increase prices [nL5N20H2C4].
Year-on-year inflation raced to 66.8 percent in March, up from 59.39
the previous month, according to statistics agency Zimstats.
On Tuesday, the RTGS dollar was trading at 3.19 to the dollar on the
interbank market and 5 on the black market.
That means a loaf of bread costs about 70 U.S. cents a loaf, in a
country where the average income is around $4 a day.
Bread is the most consumed staple after maize meal, and the increase
follows that of other products like cooking oil, sugar and milk.
In January, a fuel price increase led to protests that left several
people dead following a military crackdown.
While prices of basic goods continue to spike, salaries have largely
remained unchanged, increasing public anger against President Emmerson
Mnangagwa’s government.
Zimbabwe is suffering from the twin effects of drought and a cyclone
that wrecked the eastern parts of the country.
That means the country needs to import food using scarce dollars,
which will put further pressure on the exchange rate and prices,
analysts say.

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We have got the @IMFNews Package but one of the conditions is we remove all the Food subsidies. The President then turns and says "Well that means I will be gone in a week" and he was.

Such a thing is not something you forget and from that time I have
studied the correlation between food prices and political reactions.
And let me tell you that high food prices are typically seriously
inimical to the interests of the incumbent Government. President
Suharto was an extreme example.

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Angola President Criticizes Ex-Leader for Flying Foreign Airline @business

The Angolan government said it was “surprised and deeply regrets” that
former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos chose to fly on a Portuguese
airline on Tuesday, instead of the national carrier.
Dos Santos is in Madrid for “routine” medical exams, President Joao
Lourenco’s office said in an emailed statement.
Officials tried “all channels of dialog to persuade” Dos Santos to use
Angola’s state-run carrier, known as TAAG, but the former head

Dos Santos led sub-Saharan Africa’s second-biggest oil producer for 38
years and handpicked Lourenco, his former defense minister, to succeed
him. Lourenco pledged to fight corruption, improve governance and
diminish the grip of his predecessor’s family on the economy when he
took over in 2017, and relations between the leaders has become

The “unheard of” public criticism of his predecessor shows that
“things aren’t going well between the current and ex president,”
Luanda-based political analyst Augusto Bafuabafua said by phone.
“They’re showing that they distrust each other. And that’s not good.”

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South Africa's performance on a range of social, economic and governance measures deteriorated more in the past 12 years than any other nation not at war, according to @Eunomix_SA Business & Economics Ltd @BBGAfrica

The decline is likely to continue as the country wrestles with the
consequences of nine years of worsening corruption and policy
paralysis under former President Jacob Zuma, the Johannesburg-based
political-risk advisory company said.
The fragility of the economy may also limit the tenure of his
successor Cyril Ramaphosa, who faces his first national election May
8, it said.
“There is the strongest likelihood of him being a one-term president,”
Claude Baissac, the head of a Eunomix, said in an interview.
“He is starting with a very weak economy, the weakest of any president
since Mandela. He is also starting with a fairly weak hand from a
political standpoint.”
An index of security, governance, prosperity and welfare indicators
shows South Africa slumped to 88th out of 178 nations in 2018 from
31st in 2006, according to an analysis of the country’s prospects by
The company advises some of the biggest mining companies operating in
the country.
South Africa’s decline in ranking is only been superseded by
conflict-riven countries such as Mali, Ukraine and Venezuela and its
peers now include Colombia, Jamaica, Latvia and the Philippines,
compared with Portugal and Slovenia in 2008.
The likelihood of arresting the decline is limited by the
unsustainable structure of South Africa’s economy, in which economic
power is largely held by an elite that wields little political
influence, a product of its apartheid history and its status as one of
the world’s most unequal societies, Eunomix said.
The ability of politicians to make the unpopular decisions needed to
boost growth is hampered by this imbalance.
“Economic policy serves narrow interests, thus generating insufficient
and unfairly allocated growth,” Eunomix said.
“Populism, rather than developmentalism is an easy temptation, with
the economy a tug-of-war between mutually distrustful groups.”
While Ramaphosa spent his first 14 months in power pledging a
crackdown on corruption, an end to policy uncertainty and a drive to
reform loss-making state-owned companies, his political weakness will
hinder or thwart progress, the company said.
Ramaphosa won the leadership of the ruling African National Congress
in December 2017 in a contest with Zuma’s ex-wife by a narrow margin,
and the party remains riven by factionalism.
Orthodox economics adopted during the rule of former President Thabo
Mbeki, who was in power from 1999 until 2008, have been abandoned in
favor of more populist policies.
They include as a drive to adopt land expropriation without
compensation, free tertiary education and more stringent black
economic empowerment requirements for mining companies.
“South Africa’s state performance peaked in 2007, that year its
economy and governance were at their best. Since then the state has
experienced continuous decline in all core indicators of performance,”
Eunomix said.
 “The developmental state project has failed. South Africa is now a
fragile state, expected to continue to weaken.”

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President Al-Sisi's Egypt. Al-Sisi [and I for one disagree with him on many things particularly with his ''incarceration'' strategy] made bold moves when it came to the Economy.

Egypt devalued its currency early, took a brutal punch in the solar
plexus but is now reaping the dividend from its bolder economic

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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.29

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +14.86% 2019


#WorldBank on #Nigeria. In 1990, 3 in 10 Nigerians had access to
piped water. By 2015, this was less than 1 in 10 @raziakkhan


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04-MAR-2019 :: The Stock Market is not enamoured with the idea of more ''Baba Go Slow'' economics and slumped on the news.

"There is no way in which one can buck the market." Prime Minister
Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons many years ago and this
kept looping in my mind last week.

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18-FEB-2019 :: "Baba Go Slow" "Voodoo" level FX economics Since President Buhari came to power in May 2015, Nigeria's stock market has fallen more than any other in the world, dropping 50% in dollar terms

It’s a Nollywood Level drama but permit me to give you some context.
GDP growth has lagged Population growth, GDP grew by 1.93 percent last
year, up from 0.82 percent in 2017 and grew 2.4 percent in the fourth
quarter. Nigeria was the second biggest economy in Africa in 2018,
using the market exchange rate of NGN362/$ or the biggest economy
using the fixed rate [@RencapMan]. Unemployment has risen from 8.2% to
23.1% under President Buhari's watch which would be a plain untenable
position for any incumbent Politician seeking re-election in most
parts of the World. The President is a victim of low oil prices which
provide 70% of government revenue. ''Baba Go Slow'' has to be
contrasted with President Al-Sisi's Egypt. Al-Sisi [and I for one
disagree with him on many things particularly with his
''incarceration'' strategy] made bold moves when it came to the
Economy. Egypt devalued its currency early, took a brutal punch in the
solar plexus but is now reaping the dividend from its bolder economic
policy, Nigeria is still muddling along with its ''Voodoo'' level FX
economics. Since President Buhari came to power in May 2015, Nigeria's
stock market has fallen more than any other in the world, dropping 50%
in dollar terms. There is a Message in that performance.

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18-FEB-2019 :: We dream of a new politics

We dream of a new politics
That will renew the world
Under their weary suspicious gaze. There’s always a new way,
A better way that’s not been tried before.

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Kenyan Economy

“We do not prop it up,” Njoroge said. “We have a flexible exchange
rate. We do not target a rate or direction.”
The shilling was at 101.14 against the dollar by 5:33 p.m. in Nairobi,
up 2 percent from a 103.23 low in November. For the year to date, the
unit has gained 0.6 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Kenya, the world’s largest exporter of black tea, is facing a
prolonged dry spell that’s left more than a million people in need of
food aid.
If that ends up being a severe drought it could take about 1
percentage point off economic growth this year, bringing expansion
down to 5.3 percent from the government’s current forecast of 6.3
percent, Njoroge said.
There would also be an impact on the nation’s current account, but the
central bank can manage that, he said.

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@NationMediaGrp reports FY 2018 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           61.75
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        11,642,486,161
EPS:             6.9
PE:                 8.949

Nation Media Group Limited FY 2017 results through 31st December 2018
vs. 31st December 2017

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +12.24% 2019


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.95% 2019


Cash is a still the dominant mode of payment for agriculture and
business. #FinAccess @FSDAfrica @DeLaRuePlc KNBS


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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April 2019

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