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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 18th of April 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Trump defended his reprehensible tweet about @IlhanMN: "She's been very disrespectful to this country... she's got a way about her that's very very bad for our country." @atrupar
Africa


During interview w/ KSTP TV in Minnesota, Trump defended his
reprehensible tweet about @IlhanMN: "She's been very disrespectful to
this country... she is somebody that doesn't really understand life,
real life... she's got a way about her that's very very bad for our
country."

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.@alykhansatchu With 2020 in sight for the linguistic warfare specialist. Democrats need to put @AOC and @IlhanMN-both of whom I respect-on the backbench or they can simply forget it
Africa


With 2020 in sight for the linguistic warfare specialist. Democrats
need to put @AOC and @IlhanMN-both of whom I respect-on the backbench
or they can simply forget it. Cc:@SpeakerPelosi @mehdirhasan

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01-APR-2019 :: There is certainly a Fin de siecle even apocalyptic mood afoot.
Africa


The conundrum for those who wish to bet on the End of the World is
this, however. What would be the point? The World would have ended.

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WB Yeats' The Second Coming
Law & Politics


Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;- Surely the Second Coming is at hand.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.1242
Dollar Index 97.39
Japan Yen 112.00
Swiss Franc 1.0124
Pound 1.2997
Aussie 0.7155
India Rupee 69.5275
South Korea Won 1138.05
Brazil Real 3.9385
Egypt Pound 17.2010
South Africa Rand 14.0910

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Aileen Lee, the founder of Cowboy Ventures, an investment fund, gave the word "unicorn" its current connotation in 2013 @TheEconomist
International Trade


When Aileen Lee, the founder of Cowboy Ventures, an investment fund,
gave the word “unicorn” its current connotation in 2013, she saw the
term as betokening something both wonderful and rare. Back then, that
made sense. In 2013 Ms Lee found just 38 unicorns in America.

Today there are 156, and slightly more than that elsewhere, according
to cb Insights, a data provider. There are three explanations for this
population boom: an ideology that sees the rapid creation of companies
with very large user bases as the best—possibly the only—business
strategy available; an infrastructure that makes it ever easier to
follow through on this belief; and a climate in which, until recently,
there was not much pressure to take these new companies public.

The Valley believes that “software is eating the world”, and that
there is still a lot of the business world for it to eat. As atoms are
replaced by bits—or, more prosaically, possessions and activities by
convenient services ordered through screens—it becomes possible for
industry after industry to be disrupted by startups. But the nature of
the disruption means that in any given industry only a very limited
number of startups can make good. Network effects, which make the
value of the system grow more with each new user the more users it
has, mean that the big get bigger while the small stay small, and that
the quicker you can get bigger the biggerer you get.

This does not necessarily mean monopoly; some sectors, such as
ride-hailing, may support a big fish and a littler one. But it does
mean that growing as large as possible as fast as
possible—“blitzscaling”—becomes a paramount goal. As Reid Hoffman of
Greylock Partners, a venture-capital firm, and the co-author of a book
about blitzscaling, puts it: “In a connected world, someone will build
an Amazon. The only question is who and how.”

After the debacle of the dotcom bust, things got more serious. As size
became increasingly valued, ways to build it were developed. Today
there is a “new regime of company formation”, according to Martin
Kenney and John Zysman, of the University of California in Davis and
Berkeley, respectively, the authors of a paper entitled “Unicorns,
Cheshire Cats, and the New Dilemmas of Entrepreneurial Finance”. The
design and manufacture of unicorns has become industrialised, and many
of the ingredients needed are available on tap as online services.
Smartphones let the companies distribute what they offer at home and
abroad, social media let them market it and cloud computing lets them
ramp up as demand grows.

Today, according to Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, 84% of
companies pursuing ipos have no profits. That is remarkably high. Ten
years ago, the proportion was just 33%. To see profitlessness as
rampant as today’s you have to go back to the peak of the dotcom boom
in 2000.

This is profligate even by the standards of Amazon, which before and
after its ipo was seen as a particularly profit-averse company; it had
cumulative losses of $3bn between 1995 and 2002. Uber lost almost $4bn
just last year, excluding exceptional items.

It is no secret why the valuations are high. The logic of the
unicorn-building business requires it. Firms need not only to get big
but also to be seen to be getting big; winning unicorn status and
continuing to grow quickly thereafter is important for branding and
attracting top talent. Thus every investment round is engineered to
create a higher valuation than the previous one; the alternative, a
“down round”, is seen as a dismal sign. To ensure that the only way is
up, investors coming in at later stages get privileges over earlier
ones, such as guaranteed returns. This means that their shares are
worth more than those issued earlier.

“The goal for Lyft and Uber—and for all of the entrepreneurs being
urged to blitzscale—should be to make their companies more
sustainable, not just more explosive.”

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The New High Tech, Millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not unlike Ebola.
Africa


Uber cites a preferred metric: monthly active platform consumers,
otherwise known as people who touch one of its services at least once
a month. Uber says it has 91 million MAPCs, more than double the
number in 2016. So now you know that when you call your Uber you are
in fact one of 91m MAPCs. Uber posted a $3b operating Full Year Loss
on revenue of $11.3 billion, bringing total operating losses over the
past three years to more than $10 billion, Thursday’s filing shows. In
a brilliantly counterintuitive move, Uber even said they might never
make a Profit ever.  Ride-hailing revenue grew 95 percent in 2017 from
the previous year, that rate slowed to 33 percent last year. Uber
argues that its share of the entire global transportation business is
less than 1%.  Uber argues its platform positions it to become
all-things transportation, encompassing everything from scooters and
bicycles to freight delivery, driverless vehicles and even flying cars
[Bloomberg]  Uber’s food-delivery business grew 149 percent
year-on-year to $1.5 billion in revenue in 2018. Uber is seeking to
raise about $10b at a valuation North of $100b.

''The punchline is this the largest high-growth tech company that’s
going to be going to the public markets,” David Erickson, a finance
professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School told
Bloomberg.

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Sudan: Ousted president transferred to prison amid calls he faces charges for atrocities @Channel4News' @YousraElbagir
Africa


Watch our latest film for @Channel4News - "The Night Watch" - the
people risking their lives to protect the perimeter of the sit-in
after hours..

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AWAD IBN AUF was leader of Sudan for just over a day. @TheEconomist
Africa


Mr Burhan has so far made a better fist of the job. His speech on
April 13th was less tone-deaf than that of his predecessor. He
commended the revolution, particularly noting the prominent role
played by women in the protests that began in December in response to
rising food prices. He paid tribute to the civilians who have been
killed by security forces in the past four months. More concretely, he
promised to hand over power to civilians after a transition period of
no more than two years.

But the protesters remain dissatisfied. “We can’t live on promises,”
says Hamid Murtada, an activist. The SPA has called for the sit-in
outside the defence ministry to continue until the “deep state” is
fully dismantled. Many people are particularly worried by the
appointment of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti) as the military
council’s deputy leader. A paramilitary unit he was in charge of, the
Rapid Support Forces, with links to the notorious Janjaweed militia,
was involved in the mass rape and butchery of civilians while battling
rebels in Darfur. He and others in the junta’s top ranks are close to
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which welcomed
developments over the weekend. Saudi Arabia has promised aid to help
ease the country’s economic woes.

Whether the junta will actually relinquish power remains to be seen.
“It’s very possible the military said all that just to end the
sit-in,” says Mohammed Osman, an analyst in Khartoum. Indeed, on the
morning of April 15th it tried again to disband the protest, this time
asking demonstrators to help clear roadblocks. After a brief stand-off
the soldiers retreated. “Clean up the regime and we’ll clean up the
square,” shouted protesters as they departed. The generals had better
put their aprons on.

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"If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not reassemble, we say the revolution is over."
Africa


Citizens at the sit-in are asked what their demands are:  “The
transfer of power to a civilian government” #SudanUprising
#مدن_السودان_تنتفض   @BSonblast

https://twitter.com/BSonblast/status/1116941809651818496

“The sit-in site looks like a portal into tomorrow’s Sudan.
#SudanUprising  #مدن_السودان_تنتفض @BSonblast

https://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php

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Lauren Anne Lemoumba, the president's granddaughter $7m @realDonaldTrump flat @thetimes
Africa


An apartment in a Donald Trump development in New York was bought for
$7 million in cash by the daughter of the Republic of Congo’s
president using money siphoned off from the state’s coffers, an
investigation has alleged.
Claudia Sassou Nguesso, 52, an MP, used proceeds gleaned from a
contract with her father’s government to purchase the two-bedroom
property, overlooking Central Park, on the 32nd floor of the Trump
International Hotel and Tower.
Mariana Abreu, from the corruption watchdog Global Witness, said its
investigation offered further evidence “that some of the world’s most
notorious politicians and business people choose to stash their cash
in Trump property”.
One of the former owners of a home in the building was Jean-Claude
“Baby Doc” Duvalier, the former dictator of Haiti.
Ms Abreu called on the Trump Organisation to explain why it allowed
the apartment’s purchase to go ahead despite the “apparent risks of
money laundering and corruption associated with it”.
The Trump Organisation said that the property, at the Manhattan
building at 1 Central Park West, was bought from another owner and
there was no suggestion that Mr Trump or his company had broken any
law.
The family of President Sassou Nguesso, 75, is under investigation in
Paris over more than 100 bank accounts and a string of properties and
cars valued at £50 million.
In two spells the president has ruled the oil-rich former French
colony for 35 years while, according to the World Bank, nearly half
his country’s population of five million live in poverty.
The investigation by Global Witness alleges that a company in Cyprus
belonging to Ms Sassou Nguesso — who was recently targeted in a
sex-tape blackmailing scandal, according to media reports from her
country — funded the purchase of the apartment in 2014.
A statement from the Congolese government, signed by Thierry
Moungalla, the minister of communication and media, called the deal
involving the property“a strictly private matter” as “no Congolese
public official is implicated in the purchase or possession of the
apartment”.
According to a letter of recommendation addressed to the building’s
authorities, the property was purchased for Ms Sassou Nguesso’s
daughter, Lauren Anne Lemoumba.
Her Facebook account indicates that she lives in Paris, but her social
media posts include pictures of her in New York.
Investigators at Global Witness identified a flow of cash that began
with a Brazilian company receiving lucrative state contracts from the
government of the Republic of Congo.
Funds from one of the contracts landed in the bank account of a
company in Cyprus. Ownership of the company was transferred to Ms
Sassou Nguesso in July 2013 and the following January the business
benefited from a $20 million contract with her father’s government.
Six months later the Cyprus company funded the apartment’s purchase.
Mr Sassou Nguesso is poised to become one of Africa’s band of “for
ever presidents” after winning a referendum in 2015 that enables him
to serve a third term.
A French-trained paratrooper, he was installed as president by the
military in 1979 but lost his position in the first multi-party
elections in 1992. He regained power in 1997 after a brief but bloody
civil war in which he was backed by Angolan troops and won his latest
seven-year term in March 2016.

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Ghana's economy slowed less than expected in 4Q 2018 as strong services growth helped offset a weaker contribution from the industrial sector. @Markbohlund
Africa


Ghana’s economy slowed less than expected in 4Q 2018 as strong
services growth helped offset a weaker contribution from the
industrial sector. The services sector is likely to lead growth this
year, while mining and agriculture are set to be the weak links.

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Tanzania Blocks International Monetary Fund Report Publication @economics
Africa


Tanzania’s government declined to authorize the publication of the
International Monetary Fund’s report on the state of the East African
nation’s economy, which could have significant implications for
foreign investment and aid flows.
Under Article IV of its Articles of Agreement, the IMF is authorized
to inspect the economic, financial and exchange-rate policies of its
members to ensure a smooth-running international monetary system. This
entails at least one annual visit by IMF economists to the member
country to analyze data and hold meetings with government and central
bank officials. They submit a report to the executive board, which
then transmits its views to the country’s government and publishes a
summary of the report on its website with the consent of the member
nation.
“On March 18, 2019, the executive board of the IMF concluded the
consideration of the 2019 Article IV Consultation with the United
Republic of Tanzania,” the IMF said in an emailed statement on
Wednesday. “The authorities have not consented to publication of the
staff report or the related press release.”

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@KCBGroup share price data
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           44.95
Total Shares Issued:          3066056647.00
Market Capitalization:        137,819,246,283
EPS:             7.83
PE:                 5.741

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National Bank share price data
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           4.39
Total Shares Issued:          308000000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,352,120,000
EPS:             0.02
PE:                 219.500

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@NationMediaGrp reports FY EPS 2018 -14.493% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           61.75
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        11,642,486,161
EPS:             5.9
PE:               10.466

Nation Media Group Limited FY  through 31st December 2018 vs. 31st December 2017
FY Revenue 9.6606b vs. 10.6249b -9.076%
FY Profit before tax 1.6340b vs. 1.9546b -16.402%
FY Other comprehensive income/ [ loss] [60.8m] vs. 40.1m -251.621%
FY Total comprehensive income for the year 1.0567b vs. 1.3509b -21.778%
FY Equity 7.8776b vs. 8.1663b -3.535%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 867.1m vs. 1.6926b -48.771%
EPS 5.9 vs. 6.9 -14.493%
Total dividend per share 5.00 vs. 10.0 -50.000%

GROUP RESULTS

The Group's performance was adversely impacted by a temporary shutdown
of its television station in Kenya, as well as depressed advertising
revenue following suspension of key accounts which had substantial
overdue debt. A rise in newsprint prices and currency deprecation
particularly in Uganda also affected performance.
Group turnover, at Kshs.9 7 billion was 9.1% lower than prior year
while profit after tax at Kshs.1.1 billion was 14.7% below prior year.

OUTLOOK

The Group has laid the foundation to transition from its rich history
in legacy media to remain a successful business in the digital
environment, anchored on maintaining leadership in high quality
content.
High quality journalism will remain core to the Group, even as we
address the unfolding commercial challenges associated with the
digital disruption of the media sector.
In 2019, the Group will particularly focus on re-engineering business
structures and processes to drive growth in revenues across the legacy
products while stepping up innovation led and research-based
development of additional digital inventory to accelerate growth of
new revenue streams.

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@dailynation Chairman Dr. Wilfred Kiboro accuses government of running a 'criminal enterprise' out to frustrate and kill businesses. He says govt both National and County not paying debts. #NMGFY2018 @FrankDavidPR
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions

Its a Top Quality Franchise but we have seen a more than 5 year
decline in Turnover, EPS and the Dividend Pay Out is at a decade low.
The Trend speaks to a perfect storm of the ''Switch to Digital''
[However, In Africa we have not seen the switch to paid digital
subscription unlike the New York Times and the Washington Post and the
FT, for example]. So there has been a big macro gale force wind and
Print has been in the firing line and the Daily Nation was always the
Cash Cow. The violence of Dr. Kiboro's comments speaks to a deep level
of unhappiness about the local conditions which have been adversarial
for quite a time [counterintuitively that informs absolutely informs
us that they have been meeting their ''watchdog'' role. The Share
Price has retreated dramatically over time and at todays valuation the
business is worth $115.18m which is clearly too low. The dividend is
the equivalent of 8.09% which is in fact juicy. I would have thought
this is a share worth looking at more closely particularly on any
reverses. Of course, the question is about the PIVOT. It is after all
a Schumpeter level moment in this industry. And can the pivot lead to
a rebound across all the metrics. I would say Yes eventually.

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@BritamEA share price data
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           8.50
Total Shares Issued:          2523486816.00
Market Capitalization:        21,449,637,936
EPS:             -0.92
PE:

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The banks expect that all the requisite approvals will be obtained by June, allowing shares of the merged entity to commence trading on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on July 17.
Kenyan Economy


Shareholders of NIC Group   and CBA Group have approved the merger of
the two banks in their respective annual general meetings, bringing
the tie-up of the two closer to completion.
Owners of the privately-held CBA were the first to ratify the
amalgamation on Tuesday, with NIC’s shareholders also supporting the
proposed deal Wednesday.
“The endorsement paves the way for completion of the merger that will
deliver significant benefits to the group stakeholders,” NIC’s
chairman James Ndegwa said.
The merger still needs approval from local and regional regulators
including Bank of Tanzania, the Central Bank of Kenya, Capital Markets
Authority and Competition Authority of Kenya.
The banks expect that all the requisite approvals will be obtained by
June, allowing shares of the merged entity to commence trading on the
Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on July 17.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +13.07% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +2.15% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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