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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 10th of April 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Will Africa's historic Free Trade Agreement succeed? African Continental Free Trade Agreement #AfCFTA @AJENews @AJInsideStory @MartineDennis
Africa


Presenter: Martine Dennis
Guests:
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management and an emerging markets economist
Stephen Yeboah - cofounder of Commodity Monitor
Olusegun Okubanjo - founder and managing partner of finance firm OBSIDIAN

Macro Thoughts

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The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, down from the 3.5 percent the IMF had forecast for 2019 in January, the fund said Tuesday in its latest World Economic Outlook. #WEO @business
Africa


The 2019 growth rate would be the weakest since 2009, when the world
economy shrank. It’s the third time the IMF has downgraded its outlook
in six months.
“This is a delicate moment” for the global economy, Gita Gopinath, who
recently became the IMF’s chief economist, said at a press briefing in
Washington. A projected pickup in growth next year is precarious, she
said.
The global volume of trade in goods and services will increase 3.4
percent this year, weaker than the 3.8 percent gain in 2018 but
reduced from the IMF’s January estimate of 4 percent, the fund’s
report showed.

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Netanyahu appears to edge ahead of Gantz in tight Israeli election
Law & Politics


Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc appeared to be heading towards a
narrow lead at Israel’s election, inching the veteran prime minister
closer to a record fifth term. With about 95 per cent of the vote
counted, Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party and Blue and White, which is led
by Benny Gantz were running neck and neck. But the prime

minister’s right-wing alliance appeared to be closing in on enough
seats to be able to form a governing coalition, Israeli media said.

The calculations assume that Mr Netanyahu will be backed by all his
right-wing allies, as the performance of smaller parties is critical
to the outcome.

Mr Gantz and Mr Netanyahu had both immediately claimed victory after
exit polls showed them in a virtual dead heat. Both men demanded that
President Reuven Rivlin give them the first opportunity to form a
governing coalition.

The outcome of the poll will determine whether Mr Netanyahu will fight
the threat of indictment over corruptions charges as Israel’s
longest-serving prime minister or in opposition.

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Arab Spring, Again? Nervous Autocrats Look Out Windows as Crowds Swell @nytimes
Law & Politics


In Sudan, tens of thousands of demonstrators are sitting in to demand
the ouster of their longtime ruler.

In Algeria, millions of protesters forced out their own octogenarian
leader last week.

And in Libya, an aging general is battling to establish himself as a
new strongman, promising to end the chaos that kicked off when Libyans
threw out their own dictator eight years ago.

The hopes inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 soured long
ago. But across North Africa, the reverberations are coursing through
the region once again, shaking autocratic governments and posing new
questions about the future.

Veterans of the Arab Spring struggles say the scenes feel like
flashbacks to chapters of a common story. The masses now clamoring for
the removal of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan evoke the
crowds that gathered in Tahrir Square in Cairo or outside the Tunisian
interior ministry eight years ago.

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At the time of the Jasmine Revolution in Tunis the crowds chanted "We are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God."
Law & Politics


In Tunis, it was the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi ( 29 March
1984 – 4 January 2011) on 17 December 2010, which became a catalyst
for the Tunisian Revolution.

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Some guy named Juan is now president of Venezuela because we said so. Iran's military is now a terrorist organization because we said so. Dogs are now cats because we said so. War is peace. @caitoz
Law & Politics


Some guy named Juan is now president of Venezuela because we said so.
Iran's military is now a terrorist organization because we said so.
Dogs are now cats because we said so. War is peace. Freedom is
slavery. Ignorance is strength.

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The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy @zbig
Law & Politics


The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent
collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep
tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from
coming together  Saudi threatens to ditch the USD

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"It is not so much a crime against physical bodies as it is against souls." @nytimes
Law & Politics


“What we are witnessing in Xinjiang is different, not quantitatively
but qualitatively: a massive, concerted campaign of coerced
sociocultural re-engineering,” he said. “It is not so much a crime
against physical bodies as it is against souls.”

In the opulent halls of the Emirates Palace hotel, a seat of power in
Abu Dhabi where 114 domes decorate the vast rooftop, a delegation of
about a dozen Chinese diplomats lobbied foreign ministers of the
Muslim world last month.

China has been fighting criticism that it has detained as many as one
million members of Muslim ethnic minorities in indoctrination camps in
its western Xinjiang region. But at the two-day conclave in early
March, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation — a group of 57 nations
that has been a vocal defender of the Rohingyas and Palestinians —
handed Beijing a significant victory.

In a resolution on protecting the rights of Muslim minorities around
the world, the group praised China for “providing care to its Muslim
citizens.”

The Chinese argue that the facilities in Xinjiang are no different
from the American military prisons in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, where
foreign terrorism suspects have been held without trial.

There is also little dissent in China. The state’s censored news
outlets run propaganda videos that make the camps seem like quiet
oases of work, with Uighur inmates sitting in rows at work tables.

“We don’t feel that global brotherhood love from them,” she said.
“They sell their soul, they sell their faith, for money. They know
that millions of people are suffering.”

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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang
Law & Politics


Dissent is measured and snuffed out very quickly in China. China has
unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a combination of data
from video surveillance, face and license plate recognition, mobile
device locations, and official records to identify targets for
detention [CDT]. Xinjiang is surely a Precursor for how the CCCP will
manage dissent.  The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional
authorities’ ongoing “Strike-Hard” campaign, and of President Xi’s
“stability maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1261
Dollar Index 97.024
Japan Yen 111.15
Swiss Franc 1.0002
Pound 1.3066
Aussie 0.7138
India Rupee 69.2600
South Korea Won 1141.08
Brazil Real 3.8539
Egypt Pound 17.3320
South Africa Rand 14.0890

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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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A massive display of people-power, lit by smart-phone, accompanied by chants for revolution: "the people want to overthrow the regime"...
Africa


Tens of thousands gathering tonight in front of Sudan's military
headquarters in Khartoum. A massive display of people-power, lit by
smart-phone, accompanied by chants for revolution: "the people want to
overthrow the regime"...

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The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words a producer of speed
Africa


The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place
of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a
cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed

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Dictatorship Remarks Earn Congo President Ire of Kabila's Allies @bpolitics
Africa


Political allies of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s former leader
rebuked President Felix Tshisekedi for criticizing what he said was
the “dictatorial” and corrupt system he inherited on taking office.

The criticisms, made during a U.S. trip, form the latest flashpoint in
the uneasy partnership between Joseph Kabila, who stepped down after
18 years, and the former opposition leader who succeeded him in
January following disputed elections that marked Congo’s first-ever
transfer of power via the ballot box. Kabila’s coalition secured
majorities in the national and provincial parliaments, prompting the
two mens’ alliances to agree on governing together.

Tshisekedi returned to Congo on Monday from Washington, where he told
an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations on April 4 he’d come
to the U.S. “to untangle the dictatorial system which was in place.”
The president told another meeting two days later that Congo’s endemic
corruption had “discouraged serious investors.”

Kabila’s Common Front for Congo, or FCC, “regrets the content of
certain militant remarks made by the head of state soliciting the
support of a foreign power” to refashion the system he inherited, it
said in a statement late Monday. Describing the accusations as
“baseless” and “unfounded,” it said Kabila “anchored” democracy by
organizing the country’s first democratic elections in 2006 and
oversaw nearly two decades of economic growth.

The FCC-CACH coalition “is not a secret and is not a crime either,”
Tshisekedi told reporters at the end of his U.S. visit. “Unfortunately
when I was elected president, I didn’t obtain a clean majority for the
national legislature.” CACH controls 10 percent of seats in the
National Assembly.

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Congo president turned down predecessor's PM pick -sources @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Former Congolese President Joseph Kabila wanted his successor, Felix
Tshisekedi, to appoint Albert Yuma, a Kabila ally and chairman of
state mining company Gecamines, as prime minister, but Tshisekedi
refused, sources familiar with the matter said.

“The president told Kabila that Yuma was not an option, as he is
compromised,” the source close to the presidency said. “The president,
however, clarified that this did not mean the end of their coalition,”
the source said, referring to an agreement between the FCC and CACH to
govern together.

Two foreign diplomats based in Kinshasa said the United States and
European Union urged Tshisekedi not to nominate Yuma.

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#IMF's just-released 2019 GDP growth projections for sub-Saharan Africa. #Ghana will be the fastest-growing economy @PaulWallace123
Africa


Interestingly, the three biggest economies in the region -- #Nigeria,
#SouthAfrica and #Angola -- will grow the slowest. @TheTerminal

Here are the #IMF's just-released 2019 GDP growth projections for
sub-Saharan Africa. #Ghana will be the fastest-growing economy.
Interestingly, the three biggest economies in the region -- #Nigeria,
#SouthAfrica and #Angola -- will grow the slowest. @TheTerminal

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Ghana is expected to be the fastest growing economy in 2019, not just in Africa (shown below) but in the world @RencapMan
Africa


We have high hopes that good adult literacy and good enough
electricity, means it can boom for decades to come

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Mother of all border post slow-ups. All trucks traveling through Zambia to DRC now denied entry into Zambia as truck queue at Zambia/DRC Kasumbalesa border post is now 72km long @hallaboutafrica
Africa


Mother of all border post slow-ups. All trucks traveling through
Zambia to DRC now denied entry into Zambia as truck queue at
Zambia/DRC Kasumbalesa border post is now 72km long and congestion is
spilling over to other Zambia border posts. DRC economy, stores to
soon feel effect.

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Notwithstanding under performance in revenues, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 6.8 percent in FY2017/18 from 8.8% of GDP in FY2016/17 #KenyaEconomicUpdate @WorldBankKenya
Africa


Notwithstanding under performance in revenues, the fiscal deficit
narrowed to 6.8 percent in FY2017/18 from 8.8% of GDP in FY2016/17 due
to a significant contraction in development expenditures and a
marginal decrease in recurrent expenditures. #KenyaEconomicUpdate

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Favorable weather explains the 2018 rebound in the Agricultural sector #KenyaEconomicUpdate @WorldBankKenya
Kenyan Economy


While favorable weather explains the 2018 rebound in the Agricultural
sector, the analysis shows that Kenya’s agricultural total factor
productivity (TFP) declined substantially before stabilizing at a
relatively low level in recent years. #KenyaEconomicUpdate

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +12.79% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.33% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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