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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 26th of April 2019
 
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"I call it the childhood sketch mainly because of the storks making those typical shape of birds that we used to add to every landscape sketch. Loved how they balanced the scene with the giraffes" - Rahul Sachdev
Africa


“I call it the childhood sketch mainly because of the storks making
those typical shape of birds that we used to add to every landscape
sketch. Loved how they balanced the scene with the giraffes” -
’Childhood Sketch’ taken by Rahul Sachdev

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"But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return."
Law & Politics


“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola.  They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1151
Dollar Index 98.03
Japan Yen 111.63
Swiss Franc 1.0202
Pound 1.2910
Aussie 0.7046
India Rupee 70.0075
South Korea Won 1160.935
Brazil Real 3.9504
Egypt Pound 17.1725
South Africa Rand 14.416

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@Uber Aims for an IPO Valuation of as Much as $90 Billion @business @BloombergDeals
International Trade


Uber Technologies Inc. is aiming for a valuation of about $80 billion
to $90 billion in its initial public offering, just above its last
private funding round, according to people familiar with the matter.
The ride-hailing company is planning to start marketing shares to
potential investors in a price range of about $44 to $50 each, said
the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t
public.
Uber could aim to raise about $8 billion to $10 billion in the
listing, though the final details of the pricing may still change, the
people said.
At the lower end of the range the price would value Uber just above
its last private funding round, in which Toyota Motor Corp. invested
at a valuation of about $76 billion.
Uber is taking a conservative approach to its valuation and could
later raise the price depending on investor demand, the people said.
Last year, bankers jockeying to lead the offering told Uber it could
be valued at as much as $120 billion in an IPO.
The IPO is reportedly drawing big-name investors. PayPal Holdings Inc.
will buy roughly $500 million of shares via a private placement at
Uber’s IPO price, the Wall Street Journal cited unidentified people as
saying.
Note: Uber's projected multiple based on $11.27 billion in annual
revenue; Lyft's based on revenue of $2.16 billion; other companies'
multiples based on current market cap to trailing 12-month sales.
Some recent big listings by technology unicorns have seen valuations
come back down to earth after years of access to huge pools of private
capital. Shares of Lyft Inc., which made its market debut in March at
a $20.5 billion valuation, have since dropped 22 percent to well below
their IPO price.
Uber’s ride-hailing rival has a market value of $16.1 billion as of
Thursday, much closer to its last private funding round at $15.1
billion.
Pinterest Inc., meanwhile, has seen its shares soar since it priced
its April 17 IPO below the last private valuation of $12.3 billion.
The stock closed 52 percent above its trading debut Thursday at
$28.80, valuing the digital image sharing company at $15.2 billion.
Uber is expected to set the terms for its IPO as soon as Friday before
heading out on a road show to market the stock to potential investors,
the people said. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of
America Corp. are leading the offering.
An $8 billion offering would be more than three time’s ride-hailing
competitor Lyft’s $2.34 billion IPO, the world’s biggest listing so
far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
It would rank Uber’s IPO as the ninth largest on a U.S. exchange and
the biggest since Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s record $25 billion
listing in 2014.
Money-losing Uber is one of a swarm of tech-related companies that
have gone public this year or are considering it.
Alongside Pinterest, Zoom Video Communications Inc. made its trading
debut this month. Other high-profile startups looking to go public
include Slack Technologies Inc., Postmates Inc., Palantir Technologies
Inc. and Airbnb Inc.
In its initial IPO filing, Uber revealed an operating loss of $3
billion in 2018, bringing its total operating losses over the past
three years to more than $10 billion.
The San Francisco-based company is planning to pitch itself to
possible investors as a global transportation platform, people
familiar with the matter have said, building -- and then supplying --
new demand for everything from scooters and bicycles to freight and
food delivery.

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15-APR-2019 :: Uber is seriously ubiquitous and I recall how it arrived in Nairobi and made its Gladwellian level move.
International Trade


 “The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or
social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like
wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell.
The new high tech, millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral,
wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not
unlike Ebola.

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Oil Heads for Longest Weekly Rally Since 2015 on Supply Crunch @markets
Commodities


Oil headed for its longest weekly winning streak in almost four years
on the prospect of a supply crunch, although the gains are moderating
as investors wait for OPEC’s response to tighter U.S. sanctions on
Iran.
Futures in New York are up 1.3 percent so far this week, heading for
an eighth weekly advance.
While the White House’s announcement that it will end waivers allowing
some buyers to import Iranian oil spurred a 3.6 percent jump over
Monday and Tuesday, over half of that gain has since been lost.
Brent crude spiked briefly above $75 a barrel Thursday as Russian
flows were halted across Europe after customers complained of
impurities.
Oil’s 43 percent rally this year has been driven by the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies cutting output and
disruptions from Venezuela to Libya.
While Washington’s tougher stance on Iran is further tightening
supplies, it’s still unclear to what extent Saudi Arabia and other
nations will pump more to make up for lost barrels. The kingdom said
this week it sees no need to take immediate action.
“The tables have turned: Just six months ago, we were looking at a
supply glut but now the market is fretting over a lack of supply,”
said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in
Singapore.
“If Saudi does not fill the production void adequately, prices may
very well be headed higher.”
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery fell 35 cents to $64.86 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:32 a.m. in London.
The contract closed down 1 percent on Thursday and is up 85 cents this
week. The last time WTI rallied for more than eight consecutive weeks
was in May 2015.
Brent for June settlement was down 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $74.13
a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
The contract rose to as high as $75.60 a barrel on Thursday before
closing 0.3 percent lower. It’s up 3 percent for the week, set for a
fifth weekly gain.
The global benchmark crude was at a premium of $9.27 to WTI.
The U.S. crackdown on OPEC’s fourth-largest producer will probably cut
Iranian shipments by half to 500,000 to 650,000 barrels a day,
Citigroup Inc. estimates. While the U.S. won’t close the door to
“incidental transactions” of Iranian supplies, the White House has
made it clear that current exemptions given to eight nations will not
be re-issued after the May 2 expiry.
Brent surpassed $75 for the first time since October on Thursday after
Poland, which receives oil through a northern section of the giant
Druzhba pipeline, stopped Russian imports, saying shipments have
become contaminated by organic chlorides.
As much as 1.5 million barrels a day are estimated to be at risk from
the disruption, with oil traders scrambling to find replacement
cargoes for buyers across Europe.

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08-APR-2019 :: Therefore, in many respects whomsoever controls this Spigot because this is real cash can control the World.
Commodities


Depending on prices, oil is estimated to represent 2 percent to 3
percent of global gross domestic product. At the current price of $70
per barrel, the annual value of global oil output is $2.5 trillion.

Trading in derivatives such as oil futures and options is mainly
dollar denominated. The top two global energy exchanges, ICE and CME,
traded a billion lots of oil derivati- ves in 2018 with a nominal
value of about $5 trillion [Reuters].
The c21st Oil Economy is a very big deal and Ryszard Kapuściński who
wrote as follows about the oil and petrodollar dollar economy in Shah
of Shahs.

“Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without
work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetizes thought,
blurs vision, corrupts.” Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs.

“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all
a great temptation. It is the tempta- tion of ease, wealth, strength,
fortu- ne, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts
obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling
shower of money.”

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02-JUL-2018 :: Abiy Ahmed. It's all about speed and velocity. Paul Virilio terms it 'dromology', which he defined as the "science (or logic) of speed"
Africa


He notes that the speed at which something happens may change its
essential nature, and that which moves with speed quickly comes to
dominate that which is slower.
“Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territory
is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a
matter of movement and circulation.”
Virilio argues that the traditional feudal fortified city disappeared
because of the increasing sophistication of weapons and possibilities
for warfare. For Virilio, the concept of siege warfare became rather a
war of movement.
Abiy Ahmed has moved at lightning speed, the old guard is like ‘’the
traditional feudal fortified city’’.

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02-JUL-2018 :: Ethiopia Rising. @TheStarKenya
Africa


On the same day he said, “we are in debt, we have to pay back but we
can’t. And secondarily, we aren’t able to finish projects we have
started” and announced his economic Pivot.
Of course, the downside risk of all this infrastructure is plain to
see and Sri Lanka and the tale of its Hambantota Port is now a
cautionary Tale.
FX reserves were at less than a month’s worth of imports and something
needed to be done. Expectations are high.

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The faceless insurgency in Mozambique that no one can explain @mailandguardian @simonallison
Africa


In June last year, the Mail & Guardian wrote about a “mysterious
insurgency” in Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique, in which
villages and government buildings were attacked.
There were few details about who was behind the attacks, or what their
motivation might be, but the consequences were serious: 40 people were
killed, some with extreme cruelty; at least 400 homes were burnt to
the ground; and more than 1 000 people were displaced.
For such a significant conflict, there was surprisingly little
reliable information available. The article concluded: “Before anyone
can begin to grapple with the problems, they need to understand the
nature of the threat.
So far, the rumours far outweigh the research.”
The bottom line is that no one knows what is going on in northern
Mozambique — and that anyone who has attempted to properly investigate
has been threatened or arrested.
We asked Jasmine Opperman, the Africa director of the Terrorism
Research and Analysis Consortium, if she knew what was going on.
“I’ve been in this business for four decades, and I have never before
been unable to answer the ‘why’ question,” she said.
She is not convinced by the argument that the conflict is linked to
Islamists, because the modus operandi is so different from anywhere
else in the world. More significantly, apart from one statement of
dubious veracity at the beginning of the conflict in 2017, no
organisation has sought to claim credit for the violence.
“Anyone who tells you they know for sure what is going on, they are
just guessing,” she said.
Hovering over all of these theories is the fact that a gold rush is
coming. The gas find off Cabo Delgado is scheduled to come online in
2022, and it will alter the region’s economic prospects.
It is “the world’s largest gas find after the Permian Basin and
possibly Brazil”, said Standard Bank’s Paul Eardley-Taylor.
There is so much money at stake that the bank considers it to be “the
largest ever organic growth opportunity in our history”, capable of
precipitating “a fundamental shift in the balance of power between
Mozambique and South Africa”.
She doesn’t always know how to make sense of the stories that do
emerge from the conflict area, such as this one: “Soldiers told me,
‘The [militants], they act strange when you find them in the bush.
They don’t talk to you, they don’t meet your eye. They can’t even
repeat their own names.’ ”

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.51% 2019
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.35

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.175

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +13.31%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.81% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.59% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Kenya ready to issue new Eurobond to refinance maturing bond @ReutersAfrica
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is ready to issue a new Eurobond and also plans to refinance a
maturing 5-year dollar bond, Finance Minister Henry Rotich said on
Thursday.
The East African nation made its international capital markets debut
in the summer of 2014, issuing 10- and 5-year tranches that were met
by huge investor appetite.
It returned for a 10- and 30-year tranches bond in early 2018 before
starting talks with lenders at the beginning of this year on the
issuance of a further $2.5 billion worth of bonds.
“You can’t give details about quantum and all that but certainly we
are prepared,” Rotich told reporters after giving a speech at an event
in the capital Nairobi.
“(With) the Eurobond we want to refinance the maturing debt, which is
the five-year which we took in 2014.”
Kenya would get better interest rates if it secured a standby credit
arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, replacing another
one that expired last year, before it goes to the market, analysts
say.
Rotich, however, played down that element.
“Discussions are continuous and with (the IMF facility) or without
there is no harm,” he said, adding he expected a final round of talks
with the IMF in the next two weeks or so.
News of the upcoming sale sent Kenya’s existing bonds down as much as
1.2 cents, their worst day in more than a month and a half.
“It’s the news they are going to refinance the 2024s,” said Edwin
Gutierrez, head of emerging markets sovereign debt at Aberdeen
Standard.
The drop also made the existing bonds the worst performers in
sub-Saharan Africa, which was generally struggling after high yield
sovereign such as Argentina had a torrid day on Wednesday.

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Kenya's Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Eight Years in 2018 @economics @herbling
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in eight years in 2018
and may grow at a similar rate this year, Treasury Secretary Henry
Rotich said.
Gross domestic product climbed 6.3 percent from a year earlier, Kenya
National Bureau of Statistics Director-General Zachary Mwangi told
reporters Thursday in the capital, Nairobi.
That’s the biggest annual increase since 2010, when East Africa’s
largest economy grew by 8.4 percent.
“Our estimate was 6 percent and I’m glad it turned out to be higher
than what we were projecting,” Rotich said at the same briefing,
adding that the government expects expansion of “over 6 percent” in
2019.
Last year’s performance exceeds expectations by the World Bank, which
had forecast growth of 5.8 percent.
Kenya is the world’s biggest exporter of black tea and agricultural
production, which accounts for about half of the economy, advanced 6.6
percent in 2018 from 1.8 percent a year earlier.
Output in 2017 was curtailed by drought and infestations of fall
armyworms that curbed corn production.
The manufacturing sector expanded 4.7 percent, compared with a revised
0.5 percent increase in 2017.
Kenya generated 840,600 new jobs in 2018, compared with 898,000 a year earlier.
Inflation was 4.7 percent in 2018 from 8 percent a year earlier. The
central bank targets price growth of 5 percent with a margin of 2.5
percent on either side.
The deficit on the current account narrowed to 441 billion shillings
($4.1 billion) at the end of last year from 518.9 billion shillings a
year earlier.
About 2.02 million tourists visited the country last year. Tourism is
among the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange.
The economy expanded 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year
earlier. That compares with a revised 6.4 percent increase in the
third quarter, the agency said.
Kenya's economy grew 5.9 percent from a year earlier
It’s unclear whether the economy will be able to sustain its strong
performance this year, said Razia Khan, the chief economist for Africa
and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank Plc.
“Uncertain rainfall may act as an inadvertent drag on growth,” she
said. “Rising fuel prices are likely to pose an additional headwind.”
Kenya’s Treasury sees an “urgent need” to review a law that caps the
interest rates that banks can charge, Rotich said.
The government imposed the cap at four percentage points above the
central bank rate in August 2016 to fulfill an election-campaign
pledge by President Uhuru Kenyatta to improve lending terms for
consumers, against the advice of the central bank and the National
Treasury.
The limit has cut into lenders’ profit margins, forcing them to be
more selective in who they provide money to, even sending consumers to
borrow from unregulated micro-lenders at much higher rates.

read more




TPS @serenahotels reports FY 2018 EPS +91.667% Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           21.50
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        3,916,743,322
EPS:             0.69
PE:              31.159

TPS manages 15 hotels and resorts across East Africa under the Serena
brand name.

TPS Eastern Africa FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs. 31st
December 2017
FY Revenues 6.593411b vs. 6.408206b +2.890%
FY Profit before exchange difference, interest, depreciation, results
of associates and taxation 795.111m vs. 831.525m -4.379%
FY Finance income 7.101m vs. 14.425m -50.773%
FY Finance costs [126.517m] vs. [149.347m] -15.287%
FY Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [408.248m] vs.
[406.496m] +0.431%
FY Share of results of associates [23.998m] vs. [29.360m] -18.263%
FY Profit before income tax 243.449m vs. 260.747m -6.634%
FY Income tax credit [64.444m] vs. [141.282m] -54.386%
FY Profit after taxation 179.005m vs. 119.465m +49.839%
FY Profit for the year attributable to equity holders of the company
125.710m vs.  65.209m +92.780%
FY Profit for the year attributable to non-controlling interests
53.295m vs. 54.256m -1.771%
EPS 0.69 vs. 0.36 +91.667%
Total Equity 9.137574m vs. 9.164617b -0.295%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [180.563m] vs.
611.779m -129.514%
Final dividend 0.35 vs. 0.35 –

Commentary

Following the stabilisation of Kenya's political environment in the
second quarter 2018, market sentiment continues to indicate a
consistent return of confidence in the tourism sector.
Indeed, this optimism has been prevalent beyond Kenya and extended
across the East African region.
The Company's diversified portfolio in East Africa recorded
satisfactory growth in both corporate and domestic leisure segments
during the year under review.
To complement this, post July 2018, reassuring business levels from
the foreign leisure market segment were experienced across the East
African Serena Safari Circuits in Kenya, Tanzania and Zanzibar.
The first phase of the redevelopment of Nairobi Serena Hotel was
successfully completed in August 2018, leading to improved performance
in the fourth quarter 2018.
Completion of the new: bedrooms (half room inventory), ballroom,
meeting rooms, and public areas generated incremental revenues.
Similarly, the 2017 refurbished facilities at Kampala Serena Hotel and
Dar es Salaam Serena Hotel contributed positively during the year
2018.
Early indications from these strategic business developments are
encouraging and validate the Board's vision to reposition the Serena
City Hotel brand in Nairobi, Kampala and Dar es Salaam.
This progress bodes well for future market share growth in our City Hotels.
Furthermore, our brand footprint continues to strengthen with two key
developments in our managed properties, namely: the successful
completion of the international 18-hole Golf Course, at Lake Victoria
Serena Golf Resort & Spa; and the advanced opening plan for Goma
Serena Hotel, scheduled for opening in the third quarter 2019.
The Company continues to operate in a generally subdued global
economic and business climate primarily caused by: over supply of
hotels and lodges in competitive locations, abrupt changes in laws and
regulations adversely impacting an enabling business environment,
security alerts, unexpected increases in energy and other related
operating costs; and material forex currency fluctuations.
The last few years have provided a real test for companies operating
in the East African Tourism industry, so we are pleased to note that
despite such turbulence, the Company has continued to demonstrate its
'Built to Last' capability through implementation of its successful
business model; and the spirit and service motto of its employees of
'living up to the promise'.
Notwithstanding the challenging business landscape, financial
performance from our business strategy was encouraging. During the
year under review, TPS Eastern Africa PLC (TPSEAP) achieved a turnover
of KShs. 6.59 billion (2017: KShs. 6.41 billion), and a profit after
tax of KShs 179.01 million, up by 49.8% (2017: KShs. 119.47 million).
Given that Nairobi Serena Hotel was undergoing its redevelopment
program (operating at 46% of its room inventory) with significantly
reduced meeting space, the Company's performance for the year 2018 is
satisfactory.
Looking ahead, with full room inventory in place, future projections
remain reassuring particulalrly once the final phase of Nairobi Serena
Hotel's redevelopment is completed in June 2019.
The Company and its subsidiaries contributed significantly to the
revenues of the governments of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda in 2018.
During the year 2018, the Group paid in aggregate, the equivalent of
KShs. 1.564 billion (2017: KShs. 1.481 billion) in direct and indirect
taxes; and equivalent of KShs. 438 million (2017: KShs. 353 million)
in royalties and rents to the revenues of counties and local
authorities in its various East African jurisdictions.
The Group will progress planned refurbishment of its other properties,
continue to maintain appropriate Human Resource Management practices,
and promote sound Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs that
complement its long-term business strategy. The CSR programs remain
fully aligned to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
set out by the United Nations Development Programme. Our sustainable
business practices continue to compliment eco-tourism, environmental
conservation, reforestation, education, public health; and essentially
community development across Eastern Africa.
Market indications from Serena's suppliers of business impacting
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are encouraging, with foreign leisure
bookings projected to continue on a growth trajectory; whilst the
diversified revenue streams from the wider Serena portfolio is
similarly favourable for 2019. The Group continues to effectively risk
manage its business strategy and thereby maintain the focus on
mitigating risks; and capitalise on its brand strength to optimize
portfolio performance in 2019, to the extent possible.
The Board and Management express their appreciation to the governments
within the East African Region for facilitating the continuous
resource allocation required to improve the business environment for
destination East Africa.

Conclusions


Its a really solid Franchise and they seem to finally be seeing a more
sunlit horizon
The FY Result was assisted by a substantially lower Tax Charge, however.
They will now properly ride the Tourism Tail Wind now that they have
Nairobi fully turned on.

read more







The Serena The Star
Kenyan Economy


MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the
managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a
teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at
table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there. The
Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds
me of happy joyful carefree halcyon days of youth. That brand equity
was appreciated last Thursday at the Grosvenor House where The Serena
Hotels won the Best Hospitality, Travel and Tourism in Africa award at
the African Business Awards.

And now, Serena is clearly staking out a much more forward and
offensive position across the region and as you know by now, I sense
the Eastern sea board of Africa is at a tipping Point [The oil and gas
refers but just as important is the late cycle arrival of the
information century which is the entry ticket for Africa to join in
the c21st That Arrival of the Information Century is very grass roots
because anyone with an Internet enabled mobile phone has an entry
ticket and therefore, I see the expansion of the brand as timely and
riding a rising tide. The brand is established. Its got breadth, its
not a mom and pop operation. Sure, lots of folks are coming for Serena
lunch but their longevity, their ability to navigate has been proven
and their DNA make them a formidable competitor.

read more


The audited financial report for @CrownPaintsPLC for 2018 will not be ready for publication by 30th April 2019 as required by the @CMAKenya @RichEconomics
Kenyan Economy


The company cites unexpected delays in consolidation of the results of
the subsidiaries. Extends until 10th May 2018

read more


Crown Paints Kenya Ltd share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price:           83.75
Total Shares Issued:          71181000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,961,408,750
EPS:             3.14
PE:                 26.672

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +13.03% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.86% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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