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Monday 29th of April 2019 |
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2019 Returns...H/T charliebilello Africa |
Bitcoin $BTC: +36% Oil $USO: +35% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +24% Small Caps $IWM: +19% S&P 500 $SPY: +18% REITs $VNQ: +17% MLPs $AMLP: +16% EAFE $EFA: +13% EM $EEM: +12% Commodities $DBC: +11% High Yield $HYG: +9% Investment Grade $LQD: +7% Bonds $AGG: +3% Gold $GLD: +0.1%
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@aiww When I was young - I grew up in Kathmandu, Nepal - my father would sometimes take me to refugee camps where Tibetans who had crossed the Himalayan mountains from Tibet into Nepal had just arrived. @nowtoronto Africa |
When I was young – I grew up in Kathmandu, Nepal – my father would sometimes take me to refugee camps where Tibetans who had crossed the Himalayan mountains from Tibet into Nepal had just arrived. Many of them had frostbite, were missing fingers and toes. I remember those physical details clearly but also this sense of blankness. There’s a sense of having passed through this incredibly challenging physical, mental and emotional experience. And then once you arrive – whether it’s Nepal, Germany or Canada – there is a blankness that stays with you for however many years. I felt that for myself too. I also sense that from the migrants in the film. I was interested to know whether you were seeking a sense of hope in these stories?
Refugees, even third generation, still show me the keys of their original homes. You want to cry because the home, the streets and the cities have disappeared. But they still hold that key, because they have the belief [and longing] that’s stronger than anything. But most beliefs, they vanish eventually. Life passes away. It’s why you see someone like the Dalai Lama who is over 80 years old and still cannot reach a very simple fact: he should come back to his land. But, the whole world is watching and nobody even argues about that. Politicians are even wary to see him. So then, you see, when we talk about social justice or fairness, they are almost empty words.
Do you have a desire to go home? What does home mean for you?
Home is something very small: it’s a little street or maybe a tree or some kind of smell or a kind of temperature. I’m always used to being pushed around, so I don’t have any land that I can call home. I don’t know if that’s an unfortunate thing, but that’s my condition.
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29-APR-2019 :: The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation #BeltandRoad Law & Politics |
''In this lovely season of early Summer when every living thing is full of energy, I wish to welcome all of you, distinguished guests representing over 100 countries, to attend this important forum on the Belt and Road Initiative held in Beijing'' said H.E. Xi Jinping in his address At the Opening Ceremony of The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. The Opening Address was headlined ''Work Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt and The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road''
Many of our African Leaders had of course visited in September for the FOCAC summit when ''September has just set in Beijing, bringing with it refreshing breeze and picturesque autumn scenery''
I learnt that it was
''In the autumn of 2013, respectively in Kazakhstan and Indonesia, I proposed the building of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which I call the Belt and Road Initiative. As a Chinese saying goes, "Peaches and plums do not speak, but they are so attractive that a path is formed below the trees." Four years on, over 100 countries and international organizations have supported and got involved in this initiative. Important resolutions passed by the UN General Assembly and Security Council contain reference to it. Thanks to our efforts, the vision of the Belt and Road Initiative is becoming a reality and bearing rich fruit Today, a multi-dimensional infrastructure network is taking shape, one that is underpinned by economic corridors such as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and the New Eurasian Continental Bridge, featuring land-sea-air transportation routes and information expressway and supported by major railway, port and pipeline projects''
To quote a Chinese saying, “The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers.” - I enjoy parsing Xi Jinping's linguistics and you will surely recall a substantial linguistic recasting last year at FOCAC where the President spoke of ''The End of Vanity [Projects]'' for example.
it would be churlish not to recognise the breathtaking scope and contours of H.E Xi Jinping's vision. If You accept that Mankind is at the apogee of its Progress then at this moment of apogee, there is no other World Leader thinking or operating at this level. I wrote of the ''Platform Economy'' last week and referenced the new ''blitz-scaling'' economic model that the likes of UBER were pursuing, however, on a macro level, there is no one who is thinking or executing at the level of the Belt and Road.
Francis Schaeffer: "We are not building God’s kingdom; God is building his kingdom, and we are praying for the privilege of being involved."
Of course, as I wrote in August 2017
''Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road [OBOR] program binds the world to Beijing because all the roads and railways have but one destination and that is China'' and we must appreciate how the centre of Gravity [which was once somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and is now probably somewhere in Russia] is being shifted further East with the Belt and Road. Data from Refinitiv shows the total value of projects in the scheme stands at $3.67 trillion, spanning countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania and South America. The Economist estimates ''that China will spend $1trn within the next decade on its monumental scheme.'' Xi said over $64 billion in deals were signed at the Belt and Road summit. Eximbank said this week that its outstanding bri-related credit was more than 1trn yuan, or nearly $150bn.
“All of this shows that Belt and Road cooperation is in synch with the times, widely supported, people centered and beneficial to all''
President Jinping has further fine-tuned his vision and is surely far more sensitive to his environment and the feedback Loop than his State Media and its attendant paraphernalia which tends to be rigid and hard.
“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another paradox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu
He said ''We should pursue the new vision of green development and a way of life and work that is green, low-carbon, circular and sustainable''
Finance is the lifeblood of modern economy. Only when the blood circulates smoothly can one grow. We should establish a stable and sustainable financial safeguard system that keeps risks under control, create new models of investment and financing, encourage greater cooperation between government and private capital and build a diversified financing system and a multi-tiered capital market.
Third, we should build the Belt and Road into a road of opening up. Opening up brings progress while isolation results in backwardness. For a country, opening up is like the struggle of a chrysalis breaking free from its cacoon. There will be short-term pains, but such pains will create a new life. The Belt and Road Initiative should be an open one that will achieve both economic growth and balanced development.
As the second Belt and Road Forum drew to a close, the leaders of 37 countries joined Chinese President Xi Jinping in signing a joint communique promising to work together as the global project enters its next phase. At the inaugural forum in 2017, just 29 nations made such a pledge, with Portugal, Austria, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Thailand among the new signatories this time around.
Now of course, China has had to fine-tune, resize and even the tighten the Belt and disavow some Folks of the notion that Xi was Santa Claus. Bloomberg Opinion writes
On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged high standards and “zero tolerance” for corruption in the program. The sheer volume of the supposedly multi-trillion-dollar initiative looked impossible to match. Meanwhile, a corrosive combination of debt, corruption and privileged access for Chinese companies threatened to lure or coerce countries away from the U.S. orbit and into China’s. In many ways, though, this model always contained the seeds of its own failure. The emphasis on speed and scale came at the expense of sustainability, both economically and politically. In most countries, China failed to build a broader consensus for its investments beyond whatever government happened to be in office. In a series of elections from Malaysia to the Maldives, opposition parties have sailed into power by railing against Chinese megaprojects that looked to be lining the pockets of politicians more than boosting the economy. Investments in countries such as Pakistan had already been pared back as rising debt levels limited their ability to take on new projects. But leaders in Beijing can and will adjust. They’ve already shown striking willingness to renegotiate contracts, with Malaysia’s $16 billion East Coast Rail Link — now around 30 percent cheaper — being only the largest example.
China is on the hook for billions in Venezuela for billions of Dollars if Maduro is regime-changed. China has always affirmed its Policy of non-interference but in many parts of the World we are watching a lot of long standing Regimes spasm and a betting Man would bet on many of them dying. This is clearly particularly the case in many parts of Africa as we watch events unfold in real time in places like Khartoum and Algiers. Clearly the old Chinese bet of buttressing the incumbent via building roads to his home village and Football stadia is no longer de rigeur. A lot of Leaders have yet to make the adjustment. Those who straddle the Belt and Road Platform ''geo-economically'' and ''geo-strategically'' will evidently get a Free Pass and these countries are easily identified and include the Near Abroad [Asean], Pakistan [key to triangulating India and the Gwadar Port is an escape hatch], Greece and Italy [a beachhead into Europe and where your best Mate Vlad is also snapping at European Heels] and then Africa of course where You will note Prime Minister Abiy is getting the kid-glove treatment, the Indian Ocean Islands [because of Economic Exclusion Zones, for example].
Xi Jinping has been pivoting his Belt and Road. He has his hand on the Spigot a lot more firmly. Time to pay attention.
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China's Xi says over $64 billion in deals signed at Belt and Road summit Reuters Law & Politics |
President Xi Jinping on Saturday hailed deals worth more than $64 billion signed during China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) this week as he sought to reassure skeptics the project will deliver sustainable growth for all involved. Xi said market principles will apply in all Belt and Road cooperation projects and that his signature initiative to recreate the old Silk Road joining China with Asia and Europe will deliver green and high-quality development. “More and more friends and partners will join in Belt and Road cooperation,” he said in his closing remarks. “The cooperation will enjoy higher quality and brighter prospects.” “All of this shows that Belt and Road cooperation is in synch with the times, widely supported, people centered and beneficial to all,” Xi said on Saturday. Data from Refinitiv shows the total value of projects in the scheme stands at $3.67 trillion, spanning countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania and South America.
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A Slimmer Belt and Road Is Even Scarier @bpolitics Law & Politics |
China’s globe-spanning infrastructure initiative is shrinking. The rhetoric at the second Belt and Road Forum, being held in Beijing this week, has been less triumphalist — and new plans for roads, pipelines, bridges and rail lines more modest — than at the first: On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged high standards and “zero tolerance” for corruption in the program. Unfortunately for the U.S. and its allies, though, a downsized program could pose more, not less of a competitive threat to the West. Until now, most worries about the Belt and Road have focused on its size and those weak standards. The sheer volume of the supposedly multi-trillion-dollar initiative looked impossible to match. Meanwhile, a corrosive combination of debt, corruption and privileged access for Chinese companies threatened to lure or coerce countries away from the U.S. orbit and into China’s.
In many ways, though, this model always contained the seeds of its own failure. The emphasis on speed and scale came at the expense of sustainability, both economically and politically. In most countries, China failed to build a broader consensus for its investments beyond whatever government happened to be in office. In a series of elections from Malaysia to the Maldives, opposition parties have sailed into power by railing against Chinese megaprojects that looked to be lining the pockets of politicians more than boosting the economy. Investments in countries such as Pakistan had already been pared back as rising debt levels limited their ability to take on new projects.
But leaders in Beijing can and will adjust. They’ve already shown striking willingness to renegotiate contracts, with Malaysia’s $16 billion East Coast Rail Link — now around 30 percent cheaper — being only the largest example. Newly elected governments have found Chinese counterparts relatively flexible on rescheduling loans, revisiting project costs or shifting the focus of the two sides’ economic cooperation. Even the flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is set to level out at around a third of the scale that was once touted.
This leaner version of the Belt and Road will potentially be far more potent. China will still be able to deploy its many advantages in the new scheme: its capable infrastructure firms, large-scale subsidies for its major companies, speedy decision-making, increasingly cutting-edge technology, and willingness to finance non-bankable projects that fit broader strategic goals. At the same time, a more measured approach, better attuned to political and economic risk and more responsive to local demands, will give China greater scope to entrench its presence in the economic sectors that matter. Most important of these will be digital infrastructure projects, where China’s advances — from fiber-optic cables to telecoms networks — will likely do more to affect U.S. security and commercial interests than any number of roads, railways or dams.China’s 5G capabilities are proving attractive even to key U.S. allies, posing risks for U.S. intelligence-sharing and military mobilization. Chinese surveillance technologies are being rolled out across the developing world, promising to spread China’s authoritarian capabilities. From data access to standard setting, the so-called Digital Silk Road will also augment China’s edge in the industries of the future — and will receive a warm welcome from countries looking to benefit from Beijing’s subsidized prices and fast rollouts, even if they’d chafe against Chinese port or airport acquisitions.
A rebalancing away from the most toxic aspects of the Belt and Road would certainly limit China’s ability to ensnare smaller countries in debt and gain access to such strategic assets. But, it will also force the U.S. to compete against China’s underlying strengths and most compelling appeals rather than on the Belt and Road’s most obvious — and fixable — flaws.
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estimates are that China will spend $1trn within the next decade on its monumental scheme @TheEconomist Law & Politics |
There is truth to claims that bri credit can be ruinously expensive. Consider China Eximbank’s lending to Kenya for the Nairobi-Mombasa railway. Local reports say half the $3.6bn loan was priced 3.6 percentage points above a floating market interest-rate. That is high for a poor country. It is just one of many such loans by Eximbank, which said this week that its outstanding bri-related credit was more than 1trn yuan, or nearly $150bn.
Take a group of 37 poor countries monitored by the imf. Loans from traditional bilateral lenders, including America and Japan, have declined from 7% of the debtors’ gdp to 2% over the past decade. Loans from China, by contrast, have soared from virtually nothing to 4%.
It is welcome that China is supporting hard-up nations. But its enthusiasm generates foolhardiness. David Dollar of the Brookings Institution in Washington has found that Chinese development lending appears indifferent to political and economic risks. The Centre for Global Development has identified eight countries drowning in red ink that could be further swamped by bri projects (see chart). A report in December released by Peking University ranked 94 bri countries based on measures such as the quality of their financial regulation and their openness to trade. Pakistan came second to last. That is awkward for China: Pakistan may receive as much as $60bn in bri loans, which would make it the biggest recipient of all.
There is truth to claims that bri credit can be ruinously expensive. Consider China Eximbank’s lending to Kenya for the Nairobi-Mombasa railway. Local reports say half the $3.6bn loan was priced 3.6 percentage points above a floating market interest-rate. That is high for a poor country. It is just one of many such loans by Eximbank, which said this week that its outstanding bri-related credit was more than 1trn yuan, or nearly $150bn.
But this points to another concern that will be harder for China to deal with because it relates to the very nature of the bri: its sheer ambition. Potential benefits look impressive. A recent study by the World Bank concluded that bri transportation projects could lift global gdp by 3%. That is larger than the benefits that are usually shown to be generated by free-trade agreements. It could yet bear out China’s notion that Westerners (save Donald Trump) just want to lower tariffs, whereas China is trying to build the roads that let trade happen.
China cannot achieve this alone, but its often overweening approach to the bri has alienated potential partners. America, India and Japan want little to do with it. One reason is that China is, in effect, asking others not only to sign up to its infrastructure plans but also to endorse Mr Xi’s worldview. It does not help that China reveals so little about its lending and that contracts go mainly to Chinese firms.
Some analysts in China have started to express unease. Economists at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank, argued in a paper last year that the government must entice other countries to back bri projects in order to share the risks. Otherwise, it could be China that finds itself trapped. Conservative estimates are that China will spend $1trn within the next decade on its monumental scheme—about as much as it holds today in American government bonds. Mr Xi would be wise not to let such an outlay turn sour.
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Frustrated @realDonaldTrump Demanded to Speak to @Twitter's Manager, @Jack @ELLEmagazine Law & Politics |
Donald Trump, a spam bot that was granted sentience by a curse from a witch, has decided he would like to speak to the manager of Twitter. The President had a closed door meeting with Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey on Tuesday and it was the high-powered, dystopian version of Trump huffily bursting into an Apple Store and leaning menacingly over the Genius Bar, demanding to know why his phone kept showing him negative comments about himself. "Clearly there is something wrong with your product," he'd say, swooping his bang as an employee quietly ticked off a box marked "Does not know what he's talking about; is loud."
Trump summoned @Jack to the White House ostensibly to talk about "protecting the health of public conversation ahead of the 2020 U.S. election."
The image of @Jack, who looks like Goth Shaggy from Scooby-Doo, lightheaded from having only eaten a bay leaf and a page from 1984 for breakfast, trying to explain why Twitter is bad to the reason Twitter is bad is both poetic and incomprehensible.
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Fake news and public executions: Documents show a Russian company's plan for quelling protests in Sudan @CNN Africa |
When anti-government protests erupted in Sudan at the end of last year, the response of President Omar al-Bashir came straight from the dictators' playbook -- a crackdown that led to scores of civilian deaths. At the same time, a more insidious strategy was being developed -- one that involved spreading misinformation on social media, blaming Israel for fomenting the unrest, and even carrying out public executions to make an example of "looters." The author of this strategy was not the Sudanese government. According to documents seen by CNN, it was drawn up by a Russian company tied to an oligarch favored by the Kremlin: Yevgeny Prigozhin. One official of the former regime said Russian advisers monitored the protests and began devising a plan to counter them with what he called "minimal but acceptable loss of life." While the documents do not come from official Russian agencies, they were essentially a blueprint for protecting the Kremlin's interests in Sudan and keeping Bashir in power. The documents seen by CNN, which include letters and internal company communications, are among several thousand obtained and investigated by the London-based Dossier Center, run by exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Sudan has been Moscow's template for expanding its influence in Africa and around the globe: A hybrid of private and state interests that rewards both oligarchs and the Kremlin. It's a low-cost strategy that gives Moscow a foothold in strategic places, without the commitment of regular forces or major investment by the Russian government. Instead it uses companies that supply private contractors in return for commercial concessions. Indeed, the documents seen by CNN originate from a St. Petersburg-based company, M-Invest, which has an office in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. M-Invest lists as its core business the "extraction of ores and sands of precious metals." As CNN has previously reported, the company was granted concessions for a gold mine in Sudan. But its activities seem to have gone far beyond mining. President Bashir cultivated a close relationship with the Kremlin, visiting Moscow in 2017. Russia supplied modern Su-35 fighter jets in the same year. Put simply, Russia had placed a big bet on Bashir. As protests against the regime gathered steam, that bet was at risk. According to the documents reviewed by CNN, M-Invest drew up a plan to discredit and suppress those protests. One document from early January, reviewed by CNN, proposes spreading claims that protesters were attacking mosques and hospitals. It also suggested creating an image of demonstrators as "enemies of Islam and traditional values" by planting LGBT flags among them. And it proposed a social media campaign claiming that "Israel supports the protesters." The strategy also suggested the government "simulate a dialogue with the opposition and demonstrate the openness of the government" in order to "isolate leaders of the protest and gain time." M-Invest proposed ways to make the government look good -- through widely publicized "free distribution of bread, flour, grain, food." But most of its focus was on the protests. It recommended fabricating evidence "of arson by protesters against mosques, hospitals and nurseries, [and] stealing grain from the public store." It also suggested blaming the West for the protests and using "extensive media coverage of the interrogation of detainees, where they admit they arrived to organize civil war in Sudan." And it even proposed "public executions of looters and other spectacular events to distract the protest-minded audience." In a letter to Bashir, drafted on March 17, Prigozhin complained that the Sudanese government's "inaction" had "provoked the intensification of the crisis." And he added, with unknowing prescience: "The lack of active steps by the new government to overcome the crisis is likely to lead to even more serious political consequences." Potepkin also identifies himself as a project manager for another company, Megaline, which is 50% owned by Prigozhin's holding company Concord, according to company records. In a note on Megaline's letterhead to Sudan's minerals ministry in 2017, he says that M-Invest "will enjoy all the necessary support of the Megaline Group." CNN was unable to contact Potepkin. M-Invest also signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry, seen by CNN, for the use of transport aircraft of the 223rd Flight. Between August 2018 and February 2019, two aircraft of the 223rd Flight made at least nine flights to Khartoum. One of those planes took Bashir on his controversial visit to Syria last December, the first by an Arab leader since the start of the Syrian uprising in 2011. Russia has also reinforced its presence in the neighboring Central African Republic, sending convoys of supplies across the border. Whether Sudan will remain central to Russian ambitions in Africa depends on the unfolding situation in Khartoum. Moscow will not give up easily. It has strong links with the Sudanese military, which is now in the driving seat -- even if Bashir, the man described by Prigozhin as a "wise and balanced politician," is now in a high-security prison.
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Cyclone Kenneth, which smashed into northern Mozambique late Thursday, hit "an area where no tropical cyclone has been observed since the satellite era," the World Meteorological Organization (@WMO ) said Africa |
Kenneth struck barely a month after Cyclone Idai cut a path of destruction through central Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, leaving more than 1,000 dead. "There is no record of two storms of such intensity striking Mozambique in the same season," the WMO said, labelling Kenneth an "unprecedented tropical cyclone." The UN weather agency added that a fact-finding mission currently in Mozambique will in part look at the "impact of climate change and sea-level rise on Mozambique's resilience" to extreme weather. Climate change has made cyclones more damaging, as rising sea levels have increased the strength of storm surges, WMO spokeswoman Clare Nullis told AFP. Higher or more powerful waves are driven towards the shore, potentially posing a greater risk for coastal-dwelling populations. According to WMO, the current cyclone season in the southwest Indian Ocean "has been exceptionally intense," including 15 storms and nine "intense cyclones." That ties a record set in 1993 and 1994, the agency further said.
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Rwandan brewer Bralirwa profit lifted by sales of premium beer Africa |
Rwanda’s biggest brewer, Bralirwa Ltd, said on Friday pretax profit rose 33 percent to 10.3 billion Rwandan francs ($11.39 million) in 2018, boosted by sales of its premium brand Mutzig. The rise in sales of premium beer offset weaker sales of its other beers and soft drinks, the beverage company, a subsidiary of Heineken N.V., said. Volumes fell by 13 percent to 1.7 billion Rwandan francs ($1.88 million) in 2018, it said. Bralirwa is Rwanda’s oldest brewery and has the right to produce beer brands such as Amstel. It also produces branded soft drinks such as Coca-Cola. Last year it launched local production of Heineken with a plan also to export it to neighboring countries. But Bralirwa said the strained relations between Rwanda and its neighbours Burundi and Uganda were affecting exports. “This is something we hope will not last long. It being a landlocked country, it needs other countries for us to have access to the sea,” said Merid Demissie, its managing director. “This is extremely important for us. The impact is not big but we definitely need those markets.” The company exports around 5 percent of its total volume to the region but did not give specific details on exports to Burundi and Uganda.
Kenya
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08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy. Africa |
The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment. Whether its President Trump’s rat-a-tat Tweets or a mind boggling 625% share price advance because an erstwhile Tea Company [The Long Island Iced Tea Corp was a little-known company making non- alcoholic lemonades and ice teas] renamed itself the Long Blockchain Corp. We are living in extraordinarily fast moving times. Paul Virilio has said ‘Wealth is the hidden side of speed and speed the hidden side of wealth’ and he is not wrong.
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Kenya exports under Agoa deal grow 25pc @dailynation Africa |
Exports of duty-free goods to the US under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) grew by 25 percent last year, marking one of the biggest leaps in nine years, according to the latest figures by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The goods, mainly textile products, increased from Sh33 billion in 2018 to Sh41.5 billion last year. Capital investment increased to 96.3 billion in 2018 from Sh95.3 billion in 2017 while direct employment in the sub-sector increased by 5.1 per cent to 46,248 persons in 2018. “The value of the exports increased significantly by 25.8 per cent from Sh33.1 billion in 2017 to Sh41.6 billion in 2018,” says KNBS in a report.
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