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Humanity and genius in the sketches of Leonardo da Vinci @FT Africa |
In his The Lives of the Artists the 16th-century artist and writer Giorgio Vasari gives special place to Leonardo, “marvellous and divine . . . variable and unstable”, who left so many paintings and sculptures incomplete because “he was convinced that his hands, for all their skill, could never perfectly express the subtle and wonderful ideas of his imagination”.
But his drawings did. Rearing horses, twisting violently, kicking, biting, and a raging rider, cloak billowing in the wind, leap out from the bright sketches for the 18-metre war mural “The Battle of Anghiari”, never finished, now lost. Human and animal power and fury, muscular force and grace, rise and fall in a few swirling red chalk marks on paper.
Leonardo’s most ambitious completed painting, “The Last Supper”, already deteriorated in his lifetime; its energy and psychological originality live potently in the rapidly sketched head of St James, eyes cast down in horror; in the ethereal black chalk “St Philip”; in the guilty coils of “Judas”. For “The Arm of St Peter”, curving back as the apostle leans over Judas’ shoulder, the chalk is expressive, tonal. By contrast Leonardo uses pen and ink in “Sketches for the Last Supper”, delineating structure: integrating 13 men in a harmonious composition while differentiating facial type, pose and gesture.
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27-MAY-2019 :: China vs. US War Ballistic @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
Trade War turns ballistic
For quite a while, the consensus view has been that the US and China would after all the theatrics reach some kind of Deal. President Trump is highly tuned to the markets and in fact something of a c21st Artiste. His Positive ''Trade War'' Tweets are timed around the US Market hours and designed to soothe, massage and finesse US asset prices
''Trump predicts 'fast' trade deal with China''
and he turns more negative in Chinese Trading hours.
This is next-level Gaming of a very sophisticated nature and there are few Leaders if any that I can recall that have appreciated the Purity of the Market Signal and played the game at this Yehudi Menuhin virtuouso level. Of course, Carl Icahn has stayed real close. Trump's head spinning and high velocity tweets lulled the markets and as Joerg Wuttke pronounced ''Xi got Trump wrong [and the Chinese economy is ill prepared for what comes next]'' Xi misread the signals. The Point being in the Trade War Trump is no longer the Decider. In the US, There is clearly a consensus baseline for a Full-On Toe to Toe Slugfest as it were.
In China, however, There is only one Decider that Decider was pronounced as much by Xinhua in a historical announcement in March 2018
The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China “proposed to remove the expression that ‘the president and vice-president of the People’s Republic of China shall serve no more than two consecutive terms’ from the country’s constitution.” In one fell swoop, President Xi Jinping was President for Life. President Xi is on a Pedestal and is faced with the Strong Man Conundrum. The Political Brand will not permit a retreat let alone a Surrender.
Friedrich Wu, a professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore sums up the feelings of many when he describes them as “a list of surrender demands for China to acquiesce to”. [FT] “If there is a decoupling between the two economies, so be it. The Chinese people can endure more pain than the spoiled and hubristic Americans.”
The FT said
''Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist president, is preparing to lead his country into an all-out trade conflict with the world’s leading economic and technological power, But just as Chinese forces ultimately fought the US to a stalemate in Korea by pitting sheer troop numbers and a far greater tolerance for mass casualties against superior American firepower, Mr Xi reckons he can direct a successful, society-wide struggle in the trade dispute''
Notwithstanding all the hyperbole and very partisan commentary, the following are the plain Truths. The US exported $120bn of goods to China last year, China shipped $540bn of goods to the US. This disequilibrium is the essential and overarching point. Furthermore, I estimate that 80% of the Tariff Increase is actually going to have to be absorbed by the Chinese Manufacturer and only 20% by the US Consumer. If you study the basket of Chinese Goods, they are commoditised and replaceable. Furthermore, its now a racing certainty that Trump will place 25% tariffs on around $300 billion of additional Chinese imports, setting a 25% Tariff on all $540b of Chinese imports. The US Economy is in fact more of an Island [autarkic] Economy than China's.
Huawei is a Proxy and that has gone ballistic.
19 May - 01:34:34 PM [RTRS] (GOOGL.O) - GOOGLE SUSPENDS BUSINESS ACTIVITY WITH HUAWEI THAT REQUIRES TRANSFER OF SOFTWARE, HARDWARE, TECHNICAL INFO: SOURCE
Driving Huawei out of the United States and Europe is “10 times more important” than a trade deal with China, according to former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. He also said he would dedicate all his time to shutting Chinese companies out of US capital markets.
Essentially, My Base-Line is that the Trade War is headed off the charts into Territory the market still continues to price as a ''Tail'' Risk. [Tail risk is the additional risk of an asset moving more than 3 standard deviations from its current price, above the risk of a normal distribution]
Sunchartist tweeted
The following commodities falling by > 3 standard deviation PTA, Rubber, Zinc, copper, Coking Coal in 3 std deviations. The margin calls on retail China oil futures meant they fell much more than Brent or WTI It will be an interesting few weeks ahead of us.
The Markets across the World shivered in May, some caught a Fever and some on the Periphery have become as delirious as victims of cerebral malaria. The Markets are still pricing in a benign [but much less benign than a month ago] Outcome. We need to consider what a non benign or even maximum non benign outcome looks like. The Chinese Currency which is -8.8% on a Year on Year basis is surely a very visible proxy. And if this all turns ballistic as is my baseline scenario then this is going to fly through 7.00 like a hot knife through butter and the Chinese will surely use the value as currency as Push-Back. If they do they will be pushing at an open door. Its clear that directionally money wants to leave China and a great deal of the 2019 surge in Bitcoin is surely correlated to Chinese Flight Capital. Therefore, my prediction is when the currency slides its going to slide real quick and Dollar Call Options are an interesting risk adjusted trade.
I wrote last week about the China Emerging and Frontier markets loop Phenomenon which has been super positive for more than 2 decades and is now in a Major Trend Change and has turned negative. I would be adding to short positions in the Australia Dollar [a Global Trade Proxy and Global Trade is slowing] and the South African Rand. The Periphery will get smashed as we are seeing it unfold in Lusaka.
My Guest at Mindspeak today is the preeminent China Scholar Professor Howard French Author of most recently ''Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China's Push for Global Power'' and I look forward to gaining further insights on this.
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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei Law & Politics |
Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng
You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.
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India's Ambassador to the United States announced on Thursday night - as @narendramodi clinched a second five-year term in office - that his country would no longer import Iranian oil. @asiatimesonline Law & Politics |
India is the latest country to fall into line with far-reaching US sanctions on the Islamic Republic. In April, Indian imports of Iranian oil had already dropped off by 42% to 1.41 million tonnes, the Economic Times of India reported citing oil ministry figures. The upset for Iran comes after its top diplomat, Javad Zarif, flew in for a visit with his Indian counterpart earlier this month – an extraordinary move in the midst of a campaign. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj informed him that a decision would be made on Iranian crude imports following the election. The decision appeared to have already been made, however, as the announcement came immediately after Modi’s victory was assured. “That’s it,” Indian Ambassador Harsh Vardhan Shringla told reporters in Washington on Thursday night, referring to the final shipments in April. “After that, we haven’t imported any,” he said, in comments published by AFP. India indicated earlier that it had made alternative arrangements to prevent an interruption in oil supplies. What was left unstated, Asia Times reported earlier this month, was the extra cost of replacing Iranian oil. Until May 2 this year, nearly 11% of India’s oil imports were coming from Iran. And last year, Iran was India’s third largest provider of crude, following Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In 2019, Venezuela had taken that third place, but India has also weaned itself off petroleum from Caracas to stay in step with its ally, the US. The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign aims to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero so that the petroleum-dominated economy runs out of cash and is forced to accept American terms.
מזל טוב ידידי נרנדרה מודי! @narendramodi @netanyahu https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1131591235838390272
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Malawi election results delayed after injunction over alleged irregularities Africa |
BLANTYRE/LILONGWE, Malawi (Reuters) - Final results of Malawi’s presidential elections will be delayed, the electoral commission (MEC) said on Saturday after the high court ordered a review of the polls following opposition allegations of tampering. Voters cast ballots for a president, parliament and ward councillors on May 21, with President Peter Mutharika’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) facing stiff competition from the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), which filed the complaints alleging intimidation and tampering by the DPP. [nL5N22X1VN] The Malawian High Court ordered the MEC not to release results of the presidential vote until a judicial review of the complaints had been heard and results from 10 districts were verified. Malawian law says complaints must be resolved within the maximum eight days between polling and the announcement of results. But chairwoman of the MEC Justice Jane Ansah said the results would be delayed until matters cited by the court were resolved. “Presidential results have been withheld until we resolve the issue of the court injunction which we have received. We are dealing with all complaints,” Ansah told a press briefing.
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Ethiopian ethnic violence has forced almost 3m to flee homes @FinancialTimes Africa |
On a drenched field in southern Ethiopia, hundreds of members of the ethnic Gedeo community are huddled together with nothing to do but wait. It had rained all night and the ragged shelters they had strung together were sinking in the mud. “We can’t go back,” said Haptemu Mariam, 28, a father of six who fled his home in the Guji area of the neighbouring Oromia region last year. “The Guji people are dangerous,” he said, referring to a group with which his people had lived peacefully until a recent flare-up of violence between the two groups. About 700,000 people have been displaced by the Gedeo-Guji dispute, according to the UN. Yet it is just one of many inter-ethnic conflicts raging in Ethiopia that have given the country an unenviable distinction: last year more people fled their homes there than in any other nation on earth. In total, 2.9m people were displaced by December 2018, more than those dislodged in Syria, Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan combined, according to estimates published this month. The upsurge in communal violence has coincided with the early days of Abiy Ahmed’s tenure as prime minister and is arguably the greatest threat to his lofty ambitions. “There’s a concern that the country is on a negative trajectory due to entrenched elite disagreement over what sort of federation Ethiopia should be and how to share power,” said Mr Davison of the International Crisis Group. “Unless there’s some sort of agreement on a common vision for Ethiopia, there’s a danger that the turmoil continues, and possibly gets much worse.”
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Azeteng was on the run Secret spectacles The story of a migrant spy @BBCAfrica Africa |
It was close to midnight when the young man crawled into the desert. All around him was darkness. A hundred metres away, a handful of Tuareg rebels and people smugglers, who worked together ferrying migrants through this unforgiving stretch of the Sahara, were gathered around three trucks, drumming and dancing and letting off long bursts of gunfire that rattled the night sky. He could just make out the faint light from their phones, and every fifth bullet they fired was a tracer that lit a bright arc towards the stars.
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Different languages and dialects rang out over the din - French, Bambara, Mandingo, Twi. As the convoy hit the open desert, excitement rippled through the truck. Africa |
When it was finished, the women were brought back and put in the front of the truck and the migrants were put in the back of the truck, and a heavy silence settled on them. The jubilation of earlier that day had given way to fear.
It was the crack of a rifle bullet brought them to a stop a second time — a warning shot that fizzed over their heads. Azeteng picked himself up from the bed of the truck and looked out and a chill ran through him. For the first time in his life, he saw a severed human head. Two severed human heads, mounted on wooden stakes — young men like him, he thought, probably migrants who made some small mistake. Horseflies buzzed around the heads, and blood had run down the wooden stakes and dried.
The migrants were ordered to get down from the trucks and line up, and the grim events of the first checkpoint began to repeat themselves — the cash bowl, the beatings, the Nigerian women. Azeteng watched as the women walked again into the desert with half a dozen men. While the migrants waited, the driver of the truck, who looked to be in his late 30s and wore traditional Muslim dress, and had shared the front cabin with the women, removed a handful of sticks from a stash under the truck and slowly made a fire. He filled a metal pot with water and poured in tea leaves and brought it to the boil. Darkness began to settle. The driver stirred the mixture for a while, and when he saw that the women were being brought back he poured the tea, and the three sat silently together by the small fire.
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Read @TheSentry_Org's latest report #CovertCapital @EnoughProject Africa |
It would have been hard to understand the significance of Kwanza Capital just by looking at the company’s headquarters in a commercial garage in Kinshasa’s business district. No sign marked its presence. There was nothing to indicate the company was shuffling over one hundred million dollars through accounts held at a bank linked to the family of Joseph Kabila, who served as president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo) from 2001 to January 2019. Nor would onlookers have had reason to suspect that the company was controlled by members of Congo’s former first family and its close allies. Individuals with knowledge of the company’s activities told The Sentry it maintained a low profile by design and the individuals behind Kwanza Capital apparently sought to minimize their public association with the company. Kwanza Capital, which is now reportedly under liquidation, gained only fleeting public notice as it made unusual maneuvers in the country’s banking sector, but its story is more expansive than the public record would suggest.
Kwanza Capital participated in multiple acquisition attempts in the Congolese banking sector. These attempts also involved a host of additional individuals and companies, including a Swiss- Angolan financier, a Chinese conglomerate, and a lawyer formerly affiliated with the French office of a U.S.-based law firm. While each attempt to take over a bank ultimately failed, a review of Kwanza Capital’s financial records and those of its minority shareholder reveals several indicators of money laundering as well as signs these companies may have received millions of dollars in misappropriated funds from the Congolese government. In total, the records reviewed by The Sentry indicate that as much as $140 million may have circulated through these accounts and that they appear to have functioned as a ready source of cash for family members and friends of former President Kabila.
Congo already struggles to ensure its citizens have access to bank services. In fact, a 2017 study found that only six percent of the population had access to these services, which is less than one-quarter the average across sub-Saharan Africa
Sud Oil’s articles of incorporation indicate that the company’s headquarters were in the same garage where Kwanza Capital’s offices would also be based.
Since Kwanza Capital’s founding in June 2014, Kinduelo’s role was critical for projecting credibility even if it did not require much of him other than lending his name to official documentation and attending board meetings, according to individuals with knowledge of the company’s operations. According to these individuals, Kinduelo was little more than a figurehead acting on behalf of Kwanza Capital’s ultimate beneficiaries, the Kabila family. The company’s actual head, though, was someone with much deeper ties to the Kabila family than Kinduelo’s. Multiple sources with knowledge of the company’s operations identified Selemani as Kwanza Capital’s boss and undisputed decision-maker, with close associate Moustapha Massudi serving as his de facto deputy. Sources claimed that Selemani even maintained an office in Kwanza Capital’s spaces within the garage. Massudi, who was BGFIBank DRC’s commercial and marketing director until August 2018, appeared to have a level of oversight of Kwanza Capital’s accounts at the bank in his capacity as a director there, according to records reviewed by The Sentry. Massudi denied having any involvement with Kwanza Capital or any responsibility for Kwanza Capital accounts on behalf of the bank. BGFIBank DRC, a subsidiary of Gabon-headquartered BGFIBank Group, has operated in Congo since 2010 and has been closely linked to Kwanza Capital’s operations since the latter’s inception in 2014.
Between 2013 and 2017, members of the Kabila family and its allies made two attempts to acquire a majority stake in BCDC, one of Congo’s largest commercial banks. Although neither attempt reached fruition, documents reviewed and interviews conducted by The Sentry shed light on how members of then-President Kabila’s family and their close associates relied on corporate proxies and well-connected international parties to advance the deal. BCDC is majority-owned by the Belgian-origin Forrest family, which has held a large stake in the bank for over a decade and owned roughly 67 percent of its shares at the end of 2017. The patriarch of the family, George Forrest, whose wealth Forbes estimated at $800 million in 2016, oversees a vast commercial empire operating in mining and other sectors.38 The Congolese government has also held a stake in BCDC since the mid-1960s, which was around 26 percent in 2017. BCDC has an expansive network of correspondent relationships with banks in the United States and Europe and is listed on the Brussels stock exchange.
Sources with knowledge of the first attempted acquisition told The Sentry that the Kabila family and its allies, operating through an intermediary, first made Forrest an offer for $50 million in 2013 for his family’s shares. Forrest reportedly declined because he found the offer insufficient and, significantly, could not verify that the source of the funds was legitimate. Some of the funds for the purchase had been misappropriated from government coffers, according to a source with knowledge of the deal. Faced with this failure, the Kabila family and its allies reportedly established Kwanza Capital as a front company to make acquisitions in the banking sector. In addition, sources told The Sentry that BCDC was the main target. Between 2014 and 2017, Kwanza Capital would return with a higher offer and attempt to address concerns around the origin of funds by seeking an outside financier.
In 2015, close associates of then-President Kabila—including people affiliated with Kwanza Capital and, at the time, BGFIBank DRC—assumed key positions at BCDC. Sources with knowledge of the negotiations over the share acquisition told The Sentry that this was more than a mere personnel change, it was the first stage in a coordinated campaign to pressure Forrest to sell. Pascal Kinduelo, majority owner and CEO of Kwanza Capital and then-chairman of BGFIBank DRC’s board, was named BCDC’s board chairman.40 The annual report states that Kinduelo was elevated to this position “at the proposal of the Congolese state” in its capacity as a shareholder.41 Kinduelo’s special advisor was to be Albert Yuma, the head of Congolese state-owned mining company Gécamines since 2010, a director on the Central Bank of Congo’s board and member of its audit committee since at least 2007, and―in Kinduelo’s mold―the president of Congo’s powerful business lobbying group since 2005.
According to sources familiar with the second attempt, Switzerland-headquartered investment firm Quantum Global offered Kwanza Capital a loan of between $70 million and $80 million to finance the acquisition of the Forrest family’s shares in BCDC.44 Quantum Global’s CEO, Swiss-Angolan national Jean-Claude Bastos, apparently was himself directly involved in aspects of the deal along with as many as two other senior Quantum Global staff members. One source with knowledge of the negotiations indicated that a Quantum Global representative said the money for the loan would come from an unspecified African sovereign wealth fund.
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it is an easy leap of belief to see @CyrilRamaphosa's presidential inauguration as a made-for-television force multiplier for his national (and international) audiences. @dailymaverick Africa |
And, of course, so too, most of South Africa’s governmental “royalty” were in attendance as well. In fact, taken as a whole, the day’s events had a distinctly semiotic texture, what with all the potent signs, allegories, metaphors, and some serious symbolism going on all around the stadium.
In his speech, the president put a velvet glove over that airborne fist, saying his goal is “to build the Africa that all Africans want. To forge a free trade area that stretches from Cape Town to Cairo, bringing growth and opportunity to all African countries. To silence the guns and let peace and harmony reign. Today, we declare that our progress as South Africa depends on – and cannot be separated from – the onward march of our beloved continent [of] Africa.”
There it was, virtually the only spoken references to a Ramaphosa doctrine towards the continent, save for a later reach back to ANC founding father Pixley ka Seme’s own early 20th-century vision for Africa, where Seme had written:
“The brighter day is rising upon Africa. Already I seem to see her chains dissolved, her desert plains red with harvest, her Abyssinia and her Zululand the seats of science and religion, reflecting the glory of the rising sun from the spires of their churches and universities. Her Congo and her Gambia whitened with commerce, her crowded cities sending forth the hum of business, and all her sons [and daughters] employed in advancing the victories of peace – greater and more abiding than the spoils of war.”
That vision had a positively Walt Whitmanesque ring to it (as in his poem I Hear America Singing) in some of Seme’s cadences, now made use of by President Ramaphosa.
Yes, his words could be stirring; but for any specifics of the “how” or the “what”, Ramaphosa’s nation will still need to wait until later on for all the vital, corroborative detail. It was almost as if this address was intended to be his final campaign speech (against the Zuptas?) in which all the hopeful, visionary poetry was recited, while the more boring (but still vital) prose comprising tax code and budgetary changes will come later.
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S&P keeps South Africa in 'junk' status, sees post-election reforms @ReutersAfrica Africa |
S&P Global Ratings kept South Africa’s foreign- and local-currency credit ratings in “junk” territory with a stable outlook late on Friday, saying the new government was expected to focus on reforms to revive the economy. Newly elected President Cyril Ramaphosa has pledged to rekindle growth by fixing state firms, easing policy uncertainty and luring back foreign investment that dried up in the last decade under his predecessor Jacob Zuma. S&P kept the country’s long-term foreign-currency rating at ‘BB’, while the long-term local-currency rating was held at ‘BB+’. Both carry a stable outlook. The ratings agency made the same assessment in November 2018 after slashing the rating in 2017.
Fitch Ratings also rates Pretoria’s debt as junk. Of the top three ratings firms only Moody’s classifies the sovereign as investment-grade.
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A low-ball proposal by parent @BarrickGold Corp. to buy out @AcaciaMining Plc is an "appropriate" and "elegant" solution to a two-year dispute @business Africa |
Acacia has been at odds with Tanzania’s government since July 2017, when the state handed the London-listed gold producer a $190 billion tax bill, saying it falsely declared bullion exports. Barrick has led discussions with the government. In an effort to solve the impasse, Bristow surprised the market earlier in the week with an informal plan to buy out Acacia’s minority shareholders for $285 million, a discount of about 8.5% based on closing prices of both companies on Tuesday. “To come in as aggressively as he did, with a really low value -- I don’t know what his strategy is,” Hunter Hillcoat, an analyst with Investec Securities, said by phone from London. “They didn’t even offer par. It was almost like a slap in the face.” The fact that Toronto-based Barrick is putting a value on Acacia, while also leading discussions with the government -- talks from which Acacia has been locked out -- raises questions, Hillcoat said. “It’s a peculiar situation. I’ve never seen anything like it before.” Bristow disputes the idea it has kept its 64%-owned subsidiary in the dark. “We have been engaged with Acacia, certainly while I’ve been around,” said Bristow, who took over as Barrick’s CEO at the beginning of the year. Although the risk of arbitration is higher than accepting a buyout, the reward could be greater, according to Barclays Plc. A favorable ruling might be worth $1.3 billion, more than the companies current market capitalization, Amos Fletcher said in a research note this week. A third option would be for minority shareholders to push for a higher offer from Barrick, he wrote. Barrick’s three largest shareholders -- Vanguard Group, Van Eck Associates and BlackRock Inc. -- are also among Acacia’s largest investors. Vanguard said it doesn’t comment on holdings, while VanEck and BlackRock declined to comment. Investec is among Acacia’s largest investors, according to Bloomberg data, and also holds shares in Barrick. Powerful minorities are unlikely to “take kindly” to the tone of the current offer, Hillcoat said. “It appears to be a veiled threat from Barrick that we’re the ones who hold all the cards and you’re just going to have to agree to what we’re doing,” Hillcoat said.
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