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Thursday 10th of January 2019 |
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Volatility: how 'algos' changed the rhythm of the market @FT Africa |
Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines. “The last few years have become particularly difficult for active managers,” he said in his final letter to clients. Mr Jabre is not alone. There has been recently a flurry of finger-pointing by humbled one-time masters of the universe, who argue that the swelling influence of computer-powered “quantitative”, or quant, investors and high-frequency traders is wreaking havoc on markets and rendering obsolete old-fashioned analysis and common sense. Those concerns were exacerbated by the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news. And with growing anxiety over the strength of the global economy, tightening monetary policy across the world and an escalating trade war between China and the US, these trades are getting more attention. Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station. It is true that markets are evolving. HFTs dominate the market-making once done by humans in trading pits and the bowels of investment banks. Various quant strategies — ranging from simple ones packaged into passive funds to pricey, complex hedge funds — manage at least $1.5tn, according to Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed. This has made “the algos” a fashionable bugbear whenever markets tremble like they did in December. Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist, put them at the top of his list of the 30 biggest risks for markets, and even Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury secretary who caused market unease with comments on liquidity late last year, has said the government will study whether the evolving market ecosystem fed the recent turmoil. But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” The recent turmoil has unnerved many investors, but two other debacles stand out as having first crystallised the fear that algorithms are making markets more fickle and fragile. At 2:32pm on May 6 2010, US equities suddenly and mysteriously careened lower. In just 36 minutes the S&P 500 crashed more than 8 per cent, before rebounding just as powerfully. Dubbed the “flash crash” it put a spotlight on the rise of small ultra-fast, algorithmic trading firms that have elbowed out investment banks as the integral intermediaries of many markets. Michael Lewis, author of Flash Boys, fanned the flames with his book by casting HFTs as mysterious, investor-scalping antagonists “rigging” the stock market. What was once an esoteric, little-appreciated evolution in the market’s plumbing suddenly became the topic of a vitriolic mainstream debate. “It was a wake-up call,” says Andrei Kirilenko, former chief economist at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission who wrote the US regulator’s report on the 2010 event and now leads Imperial College London’s Centre for Global Finance and Technology. “The flash crash was the first market crash in the era of automated, algorithmic trading.” In August 2015, markets were once again abruptly thrown into a tailspin — and this time volatility-sensitive quantitative strategies were identified as the primary culprits. The spark was rising concern over China’s economic slowdown, but on August 24, the S&P 500 crashed on opening, triggering circuit-breakers — implemented in the wake of the flash crash to pause wild trading — nearly 1,300 times. That rippled through a host of exchange traded funds, worsening the dislocations as they briefly became divorced from the value of their underlying holdings. many investors and analysts blamed algorithmic strategies that automatically adjust their market exposure according to volatility for aggravating the 2015 crash. Targeting a specific level of volatility is common among strategies known as “risk parity” — trend-following hedge funds and “managed volatility” products sold by insurance companies. Estimates vary, but there is probably more than $1tn invested in a variety of such funds. Risk parity, a strategy first pioneered by Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates in the 1990s, often shoulders much of the opprobrium. The theory is that a broad, diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and other assets balanced by the mathematical risk — in practice, volatility — of each asset class should over time enjoy better returns than traditional portfolios. Bonds are less volatile than equities, so that often means “leveraging” these investments to bring the risk-adjusted allocation up to that of stocks. As volatility goes up, risk parity funds in theory rein in their exposure. However, risk parity funds can vary greatly in the details of their approach, and are generally slower moving than the $300bn trend-following hedge fund industry. These funds surf market momentum up and down, and also use volatility metrics to scale their exposure. When markets are calm they buy, and when turbulence spikes they sell. This has been a successful strategy over time. But it leaves the funds vulnerable to abrupt reversals — such as the market tumble last February — and means they can accentuate turbulence by selling when markets are already sliding. Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. “I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December. Some quants will grudgingly admit that volatility-targeting is inherently pro-cyclical and can at least in theory exacerbate market movements. But they say critics wildly overestimate just how much money is invested in these strategies, how much they trade, and their impact. “Risk parity is basically a passive portfolio with some periodic, counter-cyclical rebalancing. Our volatility targets aren’t perfectly static, but they only change over a 10-year window,” says Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater. Other risk parity strategies may vary, but overall “it's only ever going to be a drop in the ocean”, he adds. Markets had been vulnerable to panicky plunges long before trading algorithms emerged, yet fears over machines seem deeply embedded in our psyche. A 2014 University of Pennsylvania paper found evidence of what it dubbed “algorithm aversion”, showing how human test subjects instinctively trusted human forecasters more than algorithmic ones, even after seeing the algo make fewer and less severe forecasting errors. And there are plenty of other potential culprits to blame for exacerbating recent turbulence. Many traditional active funds suffered a battering in 2018. That has led to a rise in investor redemption notices and has forced many to sell securities to meet the end-of-year withdrawals. Hedge fund flow data come with a lag, but traditional equity funds saw withdrawals rise to nearly $53bn in the seven days up to December 12, according to data provider EPFR — comfortably the biggest one-week outflow on record. That probably both reflected and exacerbated the slide that left the S&P 500 nursing a 6 per cent loss for 2018. At the same time, market liquidity— a broad term denoting how easy it is to trade quickly without causing prices to move around too much — tends to weaken in December, when many fund managers become more defensive ahead of the end of the year. Liquidity can be particularly poor in the last weeks of the year, when bank traders ratchet back how much risk they take on to avoid extra regulatory charges. “This makes it more expensive for dealers to perform their essential functions: providing liquidity, absorbing shocks and facilitating the transfer and socialisation of risk,” Joshua Younger, a JPMorgan analyst, wrote in a recent note. “These costs are generally passed on to customers in the form of higher rates on short-term loans, thinner markets and the risk — now realised — of spikes in volatility.” That markets are undergoing a dramatic, algorithmic evolution is an inescapable fact. Although some humbled hedge fund managers may unfairly castigate “algos” for their own failings, there are real risks in how some of these different factors can interact at times of market stress. HFTs are far more efficient market-makers than human pit traders. Yet the entire sector probably has less capital than just one of the major banks, says Charles Himmelberg, head of global markets research at Goldman Sachs. It means that they tend to adjust their bids aggressively when market mayhem breaks out. Under those circumstances, even a modest amount of selling could have an outsized impact. This is an issue both for human traders and quants, but quant strategies are programmed, quick and on autopilot, and if they start pounding an increasingly thin market, it can cause dislocations between buy and sell orders that can produce big gains or falls. For example, JPMorgan estimates that the depth of the big and normally liquid S&P 500 futures market — as measured by how many contracts trade close to the current price — deteriorated in 2018, and was exceptionally shallow in the last months of the year. In December it was even worse than the levels seen in the financial crisis. “While it is incorrect to say that systematic flows are the sole driver of recent market moves, it would be equally incorrect to say that systematic flows don’t have a meaningful impact,” says Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative strategy at JPMorgan. Poor liquidity and market volatility have always been linked, and it is in practice impossible to dissect and diagnose the myriad triggers and drivers of a sell-off. But modern markets do appear more vulnerable to abrupt dislocations. The question is whether anything should, or even could, be done to mitigate the risks. Mr Kirilenko cautions that a mix of better understanding and modest tweaks may be the only conclusion. “We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”
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Hubble finds record-breaking quasar with brightness of 600 trillion suns @SkyNews Africa |
A quasar with the brightness of about 600 trillion suns - the brightest ever seen in the early universe - has been discovered by the Hubble Telescope. Astronomers used data from the Nasa/European Space Agency's telescope to find the ancient quasar - the extremely bright nucleus of an active galaxy created by energy released by gas falling towards the supermassive black hole at its centre. They believe the quasar can provide an insight into galaxies' birth, when the universe was about a billion years old. Astronomers said it is by far the brightest quasar discovered so far in the early universe. Catalogued as J043947.08+163415.7, it is so old the light being received from it started its journey when the universe was only about a billion years old. In 2012 the universe was estimated to be more than 13-billion years old by Nasa's Wilkinson Microwave Anisotrophy Probe. Astronomers said the quasar's brightness is equivalent to about 600 trillion suns, and the supermassive black hole powering it is several million times as massive as our sun. The data shows the quasar may be producing up to 10,000 stars a year and the supermassive black hole is accreting matter to itself at an extremely high rate, scientists said. In comparison, the Milky Way produces about one new star a year.
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Opposition candidate Felix Tshisekedi @fatshi13 declared winner of Congo's election @washingtonpost Law & Politics |
A second opposition candidate, Martin Fayulu, came in second despite consistently polling as the favorite. Just before the announcement of the results, Fayulu, a former Exxon employee turned parliamentarian, said in a message that a power-sharing deal between Tshisekedi and Shadary had become an “open secret.” “My response is simple: The Congolese people deserve the truth of the ballot, not another backroom arrangement,” he said. It wasn’t immediately clear whether CENCO would publish contrasting results “This was also both Tshisekedi and Shadary’s only way out. Fayulu’s popularity was shooting up. We’re now going into a great unknown,” said Francesca Bomboko, whose Office of Studies for Research and International Consulting co-conducted the most credible pre-election opinion polling. “Fayulu will probably take this to court, but his supporters will go to the streets. The power of the crowd is what the winners should be afraid of,” she added.
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07-JAN-2019 :: Why DR Congo delayed election results @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." said Joseph Stalin.
The DR Congo held a long delayed election in December. Joseph Kabila Kabange who besides sporting a whole new sartorial look of late has been President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since January 2001 and took office after the assassination of his father, President Laurent-Désiré Kabila. Previously very cryptic and not prone to engaging with the Press, President Kabila having anointed his preferred successor Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was kicking back and relaxing and giving ''exclusive'' interviews to all the World's Press and in one interview alluded to Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous quote ''I'll be back.'' In fact, one report I read said he was proposing to remain in the Presidential Palace and that his Dauphin Shadary would occupy the residence of the Prime Minister. I have myself visited the President's residence and on those premises sits a screen [broken and frozen] from the era of President Joseph-Désiré Mobutu aka Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga which screen was headlined the Bourse du Valuers, which I was asked to rehabilitate and reinvigorate. I was a little bit slow on the draw and did not appreciate the ''Dan Gertler'' style of operation, which required ponying up cash up front. I had a Plan to turn the defunct Marche de Valeurs into a Bovespa [which by the way is the only stock market in the world wide which is posting record highs]. The Congo is enormously rich but since the days of King Leopold through Mobutu through the Kabilas has been a country where ''L'etat c'est moi'' applies and its Citizens have had to exist in a World which Joseph Conrad aptly pronounced as
“The horror! The horror!” in his book the Heart of Darkness.
V.S. Naipaul, in his book A Bend in the River [whose departure point was Conrad's The Heart of Darkness] wrote “It isn't that there's no right and wrong here. There's no right.”
Today, the Congo is once again key to the Global Economy in the c21st. Once it was about Rubber and today its all about Cobalt [Copper and Lithium]. Erik Prince who is raising a $500mn Fund to invest in the supply of these metals said to the Financial Times
“For all the talk of our virtual world, the innovation, you can’t build those vehicles without minerals that come from generally weird, hard-to-access places.”
''When I see the R&D budgets of all the major automakers ploughing huge money into hybrid or electric vehicles, I believe the demand curve for the unique minerals that make up an electric car and battery technology will be enormously high over the coming years,” Mr Prince said.
Returning to the Elections, whose results release has now been delayed. According to Africa Confidential and others, the Catholic Church [certainly the most trusted Institution in Congo and seriously ubiquitous] all indications are that the Opposition led by Martin Fayulu has won this all ends up.
''Early results – which the regime is banning the media from reporting – indicate a win for the opposition after government plans to fix the poll went awry'' said Africa Confidential. AC added The Bishops’ Conférence Episcopale Nationale du Congo (CENCO) had organised up to 40,000 election monitors to scrutinise the conduct of the poll and conduct a parallel vote tabulation. CENCO did not name the winning candidate publicly, but declared that he had polled over half of the votes in the presidential election. Martin Fayulu is the unnamed winning opposition candidate, Africa Confidential’s church sources say. Rival opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi and the ruling coalition candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary are trailing with around 20% each, we hear (AC Vol 59 No 25, The Twelve Fixes of Christmas). All these figures, and the detailed calculations underlying them, were provided by CENCO to diplomats in Kinshasa on 2 January. But the fix was not thorough enough, sources in Shadary’s Front commun pour le Congo (FCC) told Africa Confidential. They said control of the poll was lost because they did not pay off enough election officials.
If President Kabila's Man is at only 20% with the entire State Machinery at his beck and call, then we are talking about single digits in reality. Therefore, we are actually talking a compelling Victory for Martin Fayulu, an open and shut case as it were. The President's Advisor Barnabe Kikaya Bin Karubi pronounced that the coalition "firmly deplores...the partisan, irresponsible and anarchic attitude of CENCO." President Kabila summoned the Catholic Bishops to Kinshasa and told them he wants he wants to leave a “united and peaceful” Congo [@rarrigz]. Democratic Republic of Congo's electoral commission have said they can’t publish the results on Sunday as planned to avoid political unrest and that the result will be revealed "next week" after accusing the country's Catholic Church on Friday of "preparing an insurrection" by saying it knows the winner.
The Author Jason Stearns 'Dancing in the Glory of Monsters' tweeted
This could unfold in many ways. I find it v hard to believe that Kabila/Shadary will accept defeat and step down @jasonkstearns I also don't think they will be able to rig elections and move on, as we now know that the Catholic Church, opposition and civil society, will put up a fight @jasonkstearns The most likely scenario is a protracted, potentially violent standoff that plays out over months in halls of power and in the streets. It could spill over into armed mobilization in eastern DRC Many civilians are likely to be killed in this scenario @jasonkstearns
If President Kabila is determined to instal his preferred Successor and the AU [which has only once pronounced against an Election [2008 Zimbabwe]] or SADC or its neighbours are not prepared to enforce the will of the People then I would argue that the US [which has already positioned 80 personnel in the capital of Gabon, , "to be in position to support the security of United States citizens, personnel, and diplomatic facilities" in Congo's capital] should remove President Kabila from the Congo and instal the rightful Winner at the request of CENCO. I am not a Believer in Regime Change and in fact President Assad is the first Leader to have managed to repel the Merchants of regime Change [The point about Syria is that the ''HeadChoppers'' did not represent the will of the People] but this is a clear cut case, where the will of the People is being subverted. Its egregious, its outrageous. And the US has a National Interest [economic as alluded to above re Erik Prince comments]. This intervention fits neatly with Ambassador John Bolton's new Africa Strategy and unlike Iraq where Dick Cheney said
"We will be greeted as liberators, they will throw rose petals at our feet"
I can guarantee you the People of the Congo will throw rose petals at your feet.
$750b of a Defence budget can be put to good use here. If President Trump and his team from Ambassador John Bolton through to Secretary Pompeo want to regain influence on this vast Continent, this is that moment just like it was for Muhammed Ali many years ago in Kinshasa.
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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei Law & Politics |
Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.
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Sudan - #al-Bashir dances while country burns @business H/T @AntonySguazzin Africa |
Sudan’s embattled long-time president Omar al-Bashir danced a jig on stage and told thousands of supporters that elections are the only way out of the current crisis, as he looked to reverse a tide of protests that have swept across the impoverished nation. In a televised rally in Khartoum, the capital, Bashir rejected calls to step down, saying there “are those who conspire against Sudan and seek to attack it.” There are no other options but a national dialog and elections, he said, as chants broke out of: “There is no alternative to al-Bashir.” Flanked by supporters, and sporting a brown leisure suit, Bashir danced on stage and waved his cane to cheers. The show of force by one of the region’s longest-serving rulers comes as the government faces continuing protests against soaring living costs. The rally took place as anti-government protesters held a counter-demonstration in Omdurman, Khartoum’s twin city. Television footage showed thousands marching in the streets, while Agence France-Presse reported that security forces fired tear gas at the crowds. “We won’t allow any external bodies or forces to sabotage our country,” said Bashir, who took power in 1989, adding the nation enjoyed the support of China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. “We won’t allow chaos. The only way to come to power is through election, which will be free and fair.” While rich in oil, decades of strife -- including with its southern neighbor -- two decades of U.S. sanctions imposed on Bashir for supporting terror that were lifted in 2017, and general mismanagement have curtailed efforts to expand Sudan’s economy. Inflation has hovered at nearly 70 percent, while three currency devaluations and shortages of cash and fuel have hit Sudanese hard. Bashir has sought to paint a different picture -- one of malcontents intent on subverting a nation on the brink of revival. A parliament packed with his supporters has provided the 75-year-old former army general with a rubber stamp to seek a constitutional amendment allowing him to run for office again in elections in 2020. Thousands of protesters last week blocked streets and attempted to march on the presidential palace, while calling on Bashir to resign. At least 19 people have died in the protests, while authorities have arrested more than 800. Bashir praised security forces for their restraint and in helping “protect them from the mercenaries that infiltrate the protests.” The protests are an echo of those that rippled through the Arab world in 2011, triggering a wave of uprisings that ousted autocratic presidents in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen and plunged Syria into an abyss of violence.
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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa Africa |
What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun. We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event. Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about acceleration, momentum and speed best characterised by the Ger- man word ‘Blitzkrieg’.
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According to @thomsonreuters's data for Africa, the total deal volumes & values of M&A transactions in Africa fell sharply in third quarter (Q3) 2018, declining 48.9% in deal volume compared to the same period in 2017. @TheNerveAfrica H/T @bankele Africa |
According to Thomson Reuters’s data for Africa, the total deal volumes and values of M&A transactions in Africa fell sharply in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018, declining 48.9 percent in deal volume compared to the same period in 2017. The report notes the deals announced were 522 deals valued at $17.94 billion in the Q3 of 2017. This dropped to 343 deals valued at $9.17 billion in Q3 of 2018. While the deals completed in Q3 2017 were 328 deals valued at $15.8 billion, this dropped to 208 deals valued at $5.02 billion in Q3 of 2018. The reason for this decline is unknown as Africa has had a lot of political and business uncertainties. Some industry experts have also blamed bad governance and corruption as the reason for the decline as countries like the United Kingdom and the United States have made investors more cautious about investing in Africa.
In January 2018, United States-based private equity firm TPG Growth acquired a majority stake in the South African multimedia entertainment company TRACE. TRACE is a multi-platform media company with over 200 million viewers and listeners across 160 countries. It is a leading youth brand across Sub-Saharan Africa and operates 30 digital and mobile services, 21 pay TV channels and seven radio stations. TPG Growth acquired the stake from trade buyer Millennium Technology Group (MTG), which initially invested in 2014. The acquisition is TPG’s fifth Africa investment after backing Gro Intelligence, a global agricultural data business, Frontier Car Group, which manages Cars45.com and Ecoles Yassamine, a private school network in Morocco.
In March 2018, South Korea-based Samsung announced the acquisition of Egyptian artificial intelligence startup Kngine in order to improve its virtual assistant Bixby, developed by Samsung Electronics.This acquisition is considered a big one for Kngine. It is worthy to note that before executing the full acquisition of the company, Samsung had invested in Kngine through their venture capital unit, Samsung Next, jointly with Vodafone Ventures in 2014.
Swiss Re acquired a 13.81 percent stake in Kenya’s largest company in the life insurance and pension annuity sector, Britam Holdings. According to the announcement, Swiss Re acquired 348,504,000 ordinary shares in Britam from one of its key shareholder, Peter Munga. Britam’s property portfolio includes hospitality, housing, offices, shopping malls and student accommodation. Britam is operational in Mozambique, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Swiss Re already has a foothold in Kenya, where it bought a 26.9 percent minority stake in another insurer, Apollo Investments Limited.
Allianz Group in July announced that it has signed a binding agreement to acquire 98 percent of Nigerian insurer Ensure Insurance Plc. from its core shareholder Greenoaks Global Holdings Ltd.(GGH).
In order to have a music streaming service in Africa, Africa’s biggest telecom company, MTN in November 2018 announced that it has bought music-streaming business Simfy. Simfy which was officially launched in South Africa in August 2012 has access to more than 42 million tracks and has signed deals with most of the major record labels in the country. According to MTN Group’s CEO, Rob Shuter, Simfy would run as a separate business, with a separate team and it is not going to be MTN branded.
Global Fintech company, Emergent Technology Holdings LP (“EmTech”), announced in December that it has acquired a payments processor based in Ghana, Interpay Limited (“Interpay Africa”). The acquisition extends the operations of EmTech’s digital payments business, Emergent Payments, a local payments provider in 70 emerging markets. Interpay Africa connects African merchants to local and international payments capabilities across mobile money, traditional payment and local bank platforms. Interpay Limited has been renamed Emergent Payments Ghana Limited and will do business as Emergent Payments Africa.
Access Bank Plc in December announced that it has merged with another lender Diamond Bank Plc. The merger will position Access Bank as the biggest lender by assets in Nigeria. The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Diamond Bank opted for the acquisition by Access Bank despite an offer of a capital injection by key shareholder Carlyle Group’s Carlyle Sub-Saharan Africa Fund (CSSAF) DBN Holdings.
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