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Monday 14th of January 2019
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Morning, Africa |
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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Human beings (members of the genus Homo) have existed for about 2.4m years. Homo sapiens, our own wildly egregious species of great apes, has only existed for 6% of that time- about 150,000 years. Africa |
For the first half of our existence we potter along unremarkably; then
we undergo a series of revolutions. First, the "cognitive" revolution:
about 70,000 years ago, we start to behave in far more ingenious ways
than before, for reasons that are still obscure, and we spread rapidly
across the planet. About 11,000 years ago we enter on the agricultural
revolution, converting in increasing numbers from foraging (hunting
and gathering) to farming. The "scientific revolution" begins about
500 years ago. It triggers the industrial revolution, about 250 years
ago, which triggers in turn the information revolution, about 50 years
ago, which triggers the biotechnological revolution, which is still
wet behind the ears. Harari suspects that the biotechnological
revolution signals the end of sapiens: we will be replaced by
bioengineered post-humans, "amortal" cyborgs, capable of living
forever.
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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang Law & Politics |
Dissent is measured and snuffed out very quickly in China. China has
unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a combination of data
from video surveillance, face and license plate recognition, mobile
device locations, and official records to identify targets for
detention [CDT]. Xinjiang is surely a Precursor for how the CCCP will
manage dissent. The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional
authorities’ ongoing “Strike-Hard” campaign, and of President Xi’s
“stability maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region.
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Lebanon Tries - Again - to Reassure Markets After Bonds Plunge @business Emerging Markets |
In a meeting on Sunday at the presidential palace, the officials said
Lebanon was discussing how to reduce the budget deficit and implement
fiscal reforms -- but would not restructure its debt. “The issue of
restructuring the public debt isn’t on the table at all,” caretaker
Finance Minister Ali Hasan Khalil read from a statement after the
meeting, which was also attended by the minister of economy and the
head of the country’s bank association.
Lebanese dollar-denominated bonds began tumbling and the country’s
credit risk surged last week after Khalil said in an interview with Al
Akhbar newspaper that the country was considering restructuring its
debt.
Trying to clear up confusion and calm investor nerves, he said a day
later that while a program of fiscal reforms to control one of the
world’s highest debt burdens doesn’t include a restructuring, it may
entail a rescheduling of debt. Lebanese officials also said the
securities in question were local, not Eurobonds.
But the plunge in Lebanese bonds last week showed how just talking
about the country’s debt problem -- let alone fixing it -- is proving
to be a challenge.
Lebanon’s public debt, estimated at over 160 percent of gross domestic
product this year, is projected to rise to near 180 percent by 2023,
second only to Japan’s, the IMF says. Its “debt affordability” is the
weakest of all the sovereigns rated by Moody’s Investors Service.
Frontier Markets
Sub Saharan Africa
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In 2019, Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to register economic growth of 3.4%, higher than the 2.7% expected in 2018, and 2.6% recorded in 2017, according to @WorldBank @CytonnInvest #cytonnreport Africa |
Regional Market Outlook
In 2019, Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to register economic
growth of 3.4%, higher than 2.7% expected in 2018 and 2.6% recorded in
2017, according to the World Bank. This is due to expectations of
easing drought conditions, which will boost agricultural production
and improved growth in commodity driven countries such as Nigeria and
Angola, which are expected to grow by 2.2% and 2.9% in 2019, up from
1.9% and (1.8%) expected in 2018, respectively. Nigeria’s economic
growth is expected to be propelled by growth in the Agriculture and
Services sector and on the back of an improved outlook for oil prices
despite the restrained oil production and political uncertainty ahead
of February’s general elections. Angola’s economic growth is expected
to return to expansion in 2019, bolstered by support from the IMF,
which approved a USD 3.7 bn credit facility in December 2018 to
support structural and economic reforms and help the country restore
external and fiscal sustainability. Angola’s dependence on the
volatile oil sector remains the key downside risk to the outlook.
South Africa’s GDP growth is also expected to improve to 1.3% in 2019
from 0.9% in 2018, despite political uncertainty ahead of the
country’s elections scheduled in May 2019. Other countries expected to
drive growth in 2019 are Ethiopia, Ghana and Kenya with expected
economic growth rates of 8.8%, 7.3% and 5.8%, respectively. Despite
the expected growth, the regional economic growth still faces downside
risks, mainly:
Difficult business conditions and poor infrastructure,
High levels of public debt in most economies in the region and sharp
currency declines, which will make the servicing of foreign
currency-denominated debt a concern,
Political uncertainties in some countries like Nigeria and South
Africa ahead of the elections scheduled for February and May 2019,
respectively, and,
Escalating trade tensions involving major economies in the world
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"We have waited years for this moment!" Two young girls behind her gyrated their hips and sang, "Bye-oh Kabila," again and again. @TheEconomist Africa |
In the early hours of January 10th, days after the result was
scheduled to be released, the Democratic Republic of Congo heard that
it had a new president—Félix Tshisekedi, the son of a charismatic
opposition leader who died two years ago. Moments after the news was
announced, Mr Tshisekedi walked out of his office and prayed in front
of a photograph of his father. His shrieking supporters jostled around
him. He is popular in the capital, Kinshasa.
The declaration marks the end of the ruling party’s long stay in power
and means that President Joseph Kabila and his preferred successor
must admit defeat. Mr Kabila, who had refused to step down when his
term expired in 2016, has ruled Congo badly for nearly 18 years. The
vast country has never seen a transition of power via the ballot box.
All its former leaders either fled or were killed. The fact that the
election went ahead at all—and that an opposition candidate was
declared the winner—is astonishing.
But many voters think they have been cheated nonetheless. Mr
Tshisekedi was not the man tipped to win. A respected Catholic ngo
that had deployed 40,000 observers to monitor the election on December
30th said on January 3rd that its tallies showed a clear winner.
Although it did not publicly name him, it told Western diplomats that
Martin Fayulu, a former oil executive, had won. He also came top, by a
wide margin, in a pre-election opinion poll.
The electoral commission’s count was rather different. It said that Mr
Tshisekedi had won with 7.05m votes. Mr Fayulu was behind him on
6.37m. The unpopular ruling-party candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani
Shadary, received just 4.36m. “These results have nothing to do with
the truth at the ballot box,” Mr Fayulu said in an interview with
Radio France International. “It’s a real electoral coup, it’s
incomprehensible.”
Critics say that Mr Kabila was desperate to keep Mr Fayulu away from
the throne because he was backed by two of the president’s biggest
adversaries (Moïse Katumbi, a businessman, and Jean-Pierre Bemba, a
former warlord, who were both barred from standing). Mr Fayulu
appeared to represent real change. He had campaigned on a promise to
reduce corruption and enforce the rule of law—an obvious threat to
those who have looted this giant, mineral-rich country for decades.
The Kabila camp was never afraid of Félix,” says Kris Berwouts, the
author of “Congo’s violent peace”. “They consider him a weak
personality.” Mr Tshisekedi, for his part, said, “I pay tribute to
President Joseph Kabila and today we should no longer see him as an
adversary, but rather, a partner in democratic change.”
The election result will surely be contested. France has queried it.
However, the declaration of an opposition candidate as winner may give
regional bodies such as the African Union enough of an excuse to call
it free and fair. Congo badly needs a change. But this was not what
most voters had in mind.
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Congo should recount presidential election vote - Southern African bloc @ReutersAfrica Africa |
“A recount would provide the necessary reassurance to both winners and
losers,” SADC said in a statement.
SADC, which includes old Kabila allies Angola and South Africa,
recommended a government of national unity including parties
representing Kabila, Fayulu and Tshisekedi that could promote peace.
“SADC draws the attention of Congolese politicians to similar
arrangements that were very successful in South Africa, Zimbabwe and
Kenya” that created the “necessary stability for durable peace,” the
statement said.
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"We are all Darfur" Sudan's genocidal regime is under siege @TheEconomist Africa |
A hundred or more were brought in every hour. Soon the police station
in northern Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, was so full that detainees were
flowing onto the lawn. Atif, an activist picked up around noon on
December 31st, says he saw at least 1,000 arrested that day. Many were
beaten; others had their hair shaved off. Lawyers and doctors were
singled out for insults.
Atif is one of tens of thousands of Sudanese who have taken to the
streets in recent weeks. What began as a riot over the price of bread
in the eastern city of Atbara on December 19th has billowed across the
country. By some estimates, at least 40 people have been killed by
security forces during nearly 400 protests. The government says it has
detained at least 800 people (the real figure is surely far higher).
Yet this has done little to muffle what is now a nationwide uprising
against the rule of Omar al-Bashir and his 30-year-old kleptocracy.
The seeds of the current crisis were sown in late 2017, when the
government announced plans to end wheat subsidies. The aim was to plug
a budget deficit forecast to hit almost 5% of gdp this year. When the
price of bread doubled a year ago, triggering protests, the government
tried to reverse course and reintroduced some of the subsidy. But the
economy—already struggling following the secession of South Sudan,
which took away 75% of Sudan’s oil reserves, in 2011—has nosedived. It
shrank by about 2.3% in 2018. Unable to pay its bills, the government
has printed money. Inflation, at around 70%, is now the second highest
in the world after Venezuela.
Ordinary Sudanese face shortages of bread, fuel and basic medicine.
“You stand in line at the bank waiting for cash that will barely buy
you anything,” says Abuzar Osman, a 28-year-old photographer who was
arrested last month. “We now spend our lives standing in queues.”
Calls for regime change are widespread. District offices of Mr
Bashir’s National Congress Party (ncp) have been burned. On January
6th protesters marched on the presidential palace to deliver a
petition for Mr Bashir to resign. The president, who came to power in
a coup in 1989 and later won some dodgy elections, plans to stand for
another term in 2020. At least eight parties have withdrawn from the
ruling coalition.
Can he last? Mr Bashir is no stranger to unrest. His regime has fought
rebels and committed genocide against civilians in the south and in
the Darfur region. It has survived many protests before. Yet the
latest ones seem to have rattled the regime. Mr Bashir has promised to
stop cutting subsidies and to increase state spending by 39%, partly
on higher salaries for public employees. He has called the protesters
“traitors, sell-outs, agents and saboteurs”. The government has
accused rebels from Darfur of conspiring with Israel to destabilise
the country.
His tactic of blaming Darfuri rebels has had little success.
Protesters from the regime’s traditional strongholds in Khartoum and
the north have chanted “We are all Darfur” while marching. And even
though the police have shot and arrested people, the demonstrations
have shown little sign of abating. If anything they seem to be getting
better organised. The protest movement is now largely led by the
Sudanese Professionals Association, a coalition of trade unions
including those representing doctors, lawyers and journalists.
Some have likened the protests to Sudan’s previous uprisings against
military dictatorships, in 1964 and 1985. Then, too, middle-class
folks helped turn isolated riots into a broad movement for political
change. Both of Mr Bashir’s predecessors stepped aside once it was
clear the army was backing the protesters. But Mr Bashir may prove
harder to dislodge. “The army has been his for 29 years,” notes Alex
de Waal of Tufts University. He has a knack for playing factions
against each other. Senior officers may also fear prosecution for war
crimes in Darfur should Mr Bashir go. And he has a formidable spy
agency which, for now, remains loyal.
Broke and alone, Mr Bashir faces protesters who keep returning to the
streets, despite tear gas and bullets. “The people’s rage is
infinite,” says Brahim Snoopy, a film-maker. “We don’t know what will
happen next.”
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@AfricInvest_Grp which is based in Tunisia, and Catalyst Principal Partners, based in Kenya, acquired 24.2% stake in Prime Bank Kenya. @CytonnInvest #cytonnreport Africa |
AfricInvest, which is based in Tunisia, and Catalyst Principal
Partners, based in Kenya, acquired 24.2% stake in Prime Bank Kenya.
The acquisition was valued at Kshs 5.1 bn, with the capital injection
targeted to carry out strategic plans including expanding locally and
into the region. The investment has been carried out through a special
purpose vehicle, AfricInvest Azure, formed jointly by AfricInvest and
Catalyst, on terms which have not been disclosed. As at Prime Bank’s
last reporting in Q3’2018, the bank had a book value of Kshs 21.2 bn.
As such, the transaction is being carried out at a price-to-book value
(P/Bv) of 1.0x, which is a 23.6% discount to the market’s current
trading valuation of 1.3x P/Bv for listed Kenyan banks. For more
details on the transaction, please see our Prime Bank Acquisition
Note. The transaction marks the first bank acquisition in 2019.
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14-JAN-2019 :: Education blows hot @GEMSEducation @sunnyvarkey_ @HillcrestKE Africa |
The Education Sector has been blowing hot for a while now. The latest
announcement was around the acquisition of Hillcrest School [HIL] [The
Business Daily reported a transaction value of KES 2.6b but my
information confirms it was considerably shy of that reported figure]
from Fanisi Capital a PE Fund, who in turn had bought HIL out of
receivership and nurtured it and now were placing the School in the
hands of GEMS Education, one of the largest and oldest education
providers in the world, who is in the process of investing in
Hillcrest Investments Ltd – the holding company that operates
Hillcrest International School. The transaction Is subject to approval
from the Competition Authority of Kenya.
GEMS Education is a family-owned education provider, headquartered in
Dubai, with a track record in the education field spanning 60 years
with global operations encompassing 300,000 pupils in 80 schools in
Africa, Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East. Through the
organisation's philanthropic arm, The Varkey Foundation, GEMS
Education also works to improve standards of education and raise the
status and capacity of teachers throughout the world. The Varkey
Foundation awards the Global Teacher Prize a US $1million dollar
award, presented annually to an exceptional teacher who has made an
outstanding contribution. Therefore, It is indeed an optimal
pedagogical outcome for Hillcrest, its Teachers, Parents and its
students. Having known Hillcrest since my days at Kenton College, it
is indeed a good result to see the School find a stable and expert
Platform. GEMS Education has 60 years of experience and can create a
powerful network effect which surely will positively infect Hillcrest.
In the Field of education, stand alone Institutions are inherently at
a disadvantage versus specialist School networks, where you have bench
strength, you have opportunities of deep collaboration, what works in
one jurisdiction can be rapidly rolled out in others.
The Education Sector has been blowing hot for a while now. Of course,
Big Macro Trends have been driving interest. Firstly, the demographic
dividend. Africa is the youngest Continent [curiously with the oldest
Leaders - average age 66]. In Kenya, the net Population Add is above
1m a Year. This represents the Pipe-line of Students. it has been
proven that there is no demographic dividend without education.
Charles Robertson, the global chief economist at Renaissance Capital
has pronounced that In trying to answer the question “where will the
jobs come from in demographically booming Africa?”, last week we
uncovered a 54-year-old theory to test, which has relevance for India,
Egypt and many frontier markets. This says that countries cannot grow
sustainably unless there is 40% literacy and cannot industrialise
unless there is 70-80% literacy. In East Africa, Kenya (78%) is ripe
for industrialisation, Ethiopia lags at 49%, far less than China even
in 1990. This reinforces our 2016 piece showing the East Africa
Community (EAC) also has the high investment rates needed to
industrialise within five to 10 years. Our People as Parents are quite
correctly determined to invest in their Children's education.
Education is a ''Need'' not a ''Want'' The Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER)
has doubled in the last 10-years to 8.5% in 2016 from 4.5% in 2006
according to a report, “The Business of Education in Africa”
Charles Robertson, the global chief economist at Renaissance Capital
has pronounced that You need 40% literacy to grow sustainably and
70-80% to industrialise. In trying to answer the question “where will
the jobs come from in demographically booming Africa?”, last week we
uncovered a 54-year-old theory to test, which has relevance for India,
Egypt and many frontier markets. This says that countries cannot grow
sustainably unless there is 40% literacy and cannot industrialise
unless there is 70-80% literacy. In East Africa, Kenya (78%) is ripe
for industrialisation, Ethiopia lags at 49%, far less than China even
in 1990. This reinforces our 2016 piece showing the East Africa
Community (EAC) also has the high investment rates needed to
industrialise within five to 10 years.
Other significant Education announcements confirm The Sector is
attracting a lot of interest. Of course, there are many different
price points and a variety of product offerings. Fanisi Capital itself
is investing Kshs 400.0 mn in Kitengela International School (KISC),
for an undisclosed stake. Makini School Limited was acquired through a
Joint Venture between Schole (Mauritius) Limited, a London-based
education provider, Caerus Capital and Advtech Group for Kshs 1.5 bn.
ADvTECH Group also launched Crawford Kenya International College.
Dubai Investments joined a consortium including Centum, Investbridge
Capital and Sabis Education Network and are set to roll out a chain of
Sabis-branded private schools in Africa. And There are plenty of other
examples. New Schools are popping up like Nova Pioneer. And We must
not forget strong indigenous Brands like Braeburn, Starehe, Peponi,
Visa Oshwal and others too many to mention.
The Arrival of GEMS at Hillcrest is a big net Add for the School and
for the Education sector as a whole in Kenya. Competition and
investment is now required to equip our Children [who remain the most
valuable equity in Kenya Inc. after all its not about what can be dug
out of the Ground, its about optimising the Folks who walk upon the
ground] for the new c21st, a new c21st which is so fluid and so fast
moving and simply nothing like what has gone on before.
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N.S.E Today |
The US S&P 500 is +10% off the Dec24 lows. The US equity market
performance was the worst since 1931.
Things remain very fluid in many parts of the Continent.
The Street in Zimbabwe has risen after Zimbabwe Doubled Gasoline and
Diesel Prices Overnight
The conundrum in Zimbabwe is as follows
Zimbabwe's foreign reserves now provide less than two weeks cover for
imports, central bank data show, that is $400m and which is currently
[meant] to back up the $10 billion of electronic funds trapped in
local bank accounts. This will not end well.
“We are all Darfur” Sudan’s genocidal regime is under siege led the
@TheEconomist
Broke and alone, Mr Bashir faces protesters who keep returning to the
streets, despite tear gas and bullets. “The people’s rage is
infinite,” says Brahim Snoopy, a film-maker. “We don’t know what will
happen next.”
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place
of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a
cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed.’’ said Paul Virilio
And of course DR Congo remains fluid as well where the Sorcerer Kabila
managed to lose to the Opposition but not the actual Winner.
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."
Reuters is reporting Bharti Airtel is in talks about a potential
takeover of Telkom Kenya, the East African nation’s smallest operator,
three telecoms industry sources told Reuters on Monday.
London-based Helios Investment, which owns a 60 percent stake in
Telkom, was looking to partly cash out of the investment which it
entered in 2015, the sources said.
Airtel and Telkom were not available for immediate comment.
Since the peak in February 2015 @NSE_PLC NASI and NSE 20 are down
20.9% and 48.4%, respectively. via @CytonnInvest
The @NSE_PLC is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E)
of 11.6x and a dividend yield of 5.1% @CytonnInvest
The Nairobi All Share lifted +0.50 points higher to close at 143.11.
The NSE20 which has lagged the Nairobi All Share [its about Safaricom
have an equal weighting in the NSE20 Index] firmed +14.74 points to
close at 2809.16.
Equity Turnover clocked 687.984m of which 75.184% was transacted in Safaricom.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Limuru Tea traded 3,000 shares all at 550.00 +10.00% which is the
daily maximum allowable limit.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom brushed aside the Telkom Kenya news and firmed +0.4275% to
close at 23.50 and traded 22.014m shares worth 517.386m, which
represented 75.184% of the total volume traded at the Securities
Exchange.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Barclays Bank Kenya which was the only Big Cap stock in the plus
column in 2018 [+14.00%] closed 5 cents lower at 11.05 but was trading
at 11.20 +0.9% at the Finale.
NIC Bank [subject of a merger related offer by CBA Kenya and therefore
a possible reverse listing] rallied +3.811% to close at 28.60.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
Bamburi Cement traded 429,000 shares and closed at 130.00 -1.89%.
Construction data and cement consumption have slowed sharply and were
a leading indicator.
EABL which is on the Citi ''Frontier markets conviction Buy'' List
firmed +1.22% to close at 165.00 and was trading at session highs of
170.00 +4.29% at the finish line.
KenGen closed at 7.04 +0.57% and traded only scraps 45,700 shares
signalling the sell side might well be extinguished finally.
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