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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 16th of January 2019

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.@theresa_may's Brexit plan falls by 230 votes @FinancialTimes
Law & Politics

Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the product of two years of tortuous
negotiations in Brussels, was on Tuesday night overwhelmingly rejected
by the House of Commons by 432 votes to 202.
Mrs May’s crushing loss by 230 votes, the biggest defeat inflicted on
any government, sees the prime minister in a race against time to
revamp and resuscitate her deal before Britain’s scheduled departure
from the EU on March 29.
Some 118 out of 317 Conservative MPs voted against the deal and Jeremy
Corbyn, Labour leader, immediately tabled a vote of no confidence in
the government. He said the defeat of the deal had been “absolutely
Mrs May is expected to win the confidence vote, to be held on
Wednesday evening, because neither the Conservatives nor the
Democratic Unionists, the Northern Irish party that supports the prime
minister in big votes, wants a general election.
A DUP spokesman said the party would back Mrs May in Wednesday’s vote,
while an official with the European Research Group, the faction of
hardline pro-Brexit Tory MPs, said they would “of course” back the
prime minister.
Eurosceptic Tory MPs believe Mrs May’s failure in parliament makes it
more likely Britain will leave the EU without any formal deal with
Brussels, allowing a “clean break”. Greg Clark, business secretary,
has warned that crashing out of the union without an agreement would
be “a disaster”.
But the sheer scale of the defeat suggests Mrs May’s deal needs a
thorough overhaul if it is to be revived. “It is clear the House does
not support this deal,” she told MPs. “But the vote tells us nothing
at all about what it does support.”
Mrs May faces an uphill battle when she returns to Brussels, however.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, said: “The
risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the UK has increased with this
evening’s vote . . . time is almost up.”
France’s President Emmanuel Macron said that Britain would be the
biggest loser from a no-deal exit, adding that “one or two points”
could be improved in the deal.
Donald Tusk, the European Council president, wrote on Twitter: “If a
deal is impossible, and no one wants no-deal, then who will finally
have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?”
The British prime minister, who watched stony-faced as her flagship
policy was demolished, refused to quit, declaring she would deliver on
the public vote to leave the EU: “It’s my duty to deliver on their
instruction and I intend to do so.”

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Why Trump's America is rethinking engagement with China FT
Law & Politics

When Donald Trump sat down to dinner with Xi Jinping last month at the
G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the US president did not know about the
diplomatic bomb that was about to explode. At about the same time,
police in Canada arrested a Chinese telecoms executive after an
extradition request from Washington.
The detention of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei, was
extraordinary because the US justice department had not told the White
House about the warrant to arrest the daughter of the founder of the
telecoms group, one of China’s most successful and influential
companies. But the importance of the arrest went well beyond the
immediate circumstances. It is the most striking symbol yet of the
dramatic deterioration in relations between China and a US that is
increasingly suspicious of Beijing’s motives and actions. Reinforcing
the rupture, the US several weeks later charged two Chinese nationals
with conducting a global hacking campaign to assist the Chinese
intelligence services.

While the trade war has received the most attention, the economic
tussle is part of a much more profound shift in the US that has seen
Washington reverse important elements of the strategy of engaging with
its Asian rival that was first introduced more than 40 years ago by
Richard Nixon. Support for this change in approach has a broad base in
the US. Officials across the US government have become significantly
more hawkish towards China— over everything from human rights,
politics and business to national security. At the same time, US
companies and academics who once acted as a buffer against the
harshest views are now far less sanguine.

“China has for some time underestimated the extent to which the mood
in the US has shifted,” says Hank Paulson, the former US Treasury
secretary. “The attitude that they would implement reforms at a
timetable that made sense to them missed the fact that this was no
longer sustainable if they wanted the US to keep its markets open to
them. And the US business community now supports a harder line.”

While Mr Trump likes to describe China’s president Mr Xi as his
friend, his White House signalled a major shift away from China when
it labelled the nation a “revisionist power” in its December 2017
National Security Strategy. In October, Mike Pence, vice-president,
hammered home that message in a speech at the Hudson Institute that
charged China with a litany of offences — from political repression at
home to coercive diplomacy abroad.

The rhetoric has been matched with action. In the South China Sea, the
US navy is now conducting frequent freedom of navigation operations to
push back against Chinese sovereignty claims over disputed reefs and
islands. Meanwhile, the justice department created a “China
initiative” task force to crack down on espionage.

While Ms Meng was arrested for allegedly helping her telecoms company
violate US sanctions on Iran, US officials have long worried that
Huawei could help China spy on rivals. Those concerns escalated last
year, culminating in the US convincing its Five Eyes
intelligence-sharing partners — Canada, Australia, New Zealand and
Britain — that they needed to take a much tougher line on Huawei,
according to one person familiar with the situation.

While concerns about China have risen in parallel with its emergence
as a rival to the US, Washington has concluded that it has
underestimated the speed at which it has caught up with the US in
terms of technology — particularly technology with military

Dennis Wilder, former head of China analysis at the CIA, says that as
the US war on terror has receded in urgency, intelligence and national
security officials have now woken up to the fact that China was using
a “whole-of-society” approach to collecting intelligence, and that the
openness of the west to Chinese scientists, students and business
people had become an “Achilles heel”.

“The Chinese intelligence operations were astoundingly successful in
providing the military and other state-owned enterprises with the
secrets to enable technological leaps that could only be possible with
the theft of advanced critical technology from the US, Japan and
Europe,” Mr Wilder says.

Mr Trump and his trade war have done a lot to change the mood but many
experts say China would have faced a harsher climate regardless of
whether he had won the 2016 election. One of the few areas where
Democrats and Republicans are united is over the need to adopt a
tougher stance towards Beijing.

Lindsey Ford, a former Pentagon official under Barack Obama, says US
military officials started to become much more concerned about China
in the second half of his administration, when it appeared that Mr Xi
was abandoning the “hide and bide” low-profile approach espoused by
former leader Deng Xiaoping.
This was most striking in the rapid land reclamation in the South
China Sea, where it installed weapons systems on some islands despite
Mr Xi having pledged to Mr Obama in 2015 that China had “no intention
to militarise” them.

Ms Ford says the South China Sea activity was “the clearest signal
that the game seemed to have shifted and that China’s own calculations
about how much risk it was willing to accept . . . was no longer the

At the same time that its navy has become more assertive, China has
developed weapons-related technologies at a much faster pace than many
US analysts once thought likely.

Underscoring how the gap between the US and China has shrunk, General
Paul Selva, vice-chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, warned in June
that “if we sit back and don’t react, we will lose our technological
superiority in 2020”. The Pentagon is also concerned about the
vulnerability of its military supply chains because of components made
in China.

Washington is raising red flags about activities aimed at stealing US
technology — whether via Chinese nationals working in American
university labs or cyber espionage. One person familiar with the
situation says US officials realised how much more vigilant they
needed to become when they discovered just how much similarity there
was between the Chinese J-20 stealth fighter jet and the American

To tackle the threat, the US has significantly stepped up the vetting
of Chinese nationals who apply to study sensitive subjects in America.
Christopher Wray, FBI director, last year warned Congress that US
universities were naive about the potential for Chinese nationals to
collect intelligence on their campuses.

John Demers, head of the justice department’s China Initiative,
recently told the Senate judiciary committee that 90 per cent of
economic espionage cases over the past seven years involved China.
When the US charged the hackers in December, it said Beijing had
breached a 2015 deal that neither nation would steal intellectual
property for commercial advantages.

The US is also concerned about China trying to recruit American spies.
In his testimony, Mr Demers said the justice department had an
“unprecedented” three cases against former US intelligence officers
accused of spying for China. In May, the US charged a former CIA
operative named Jerry Lee with illegally possessing secret

The CIA believes he provided Beijing with details about its spying
operation in China. One person familiar with the situation says his
actions dealt a catastrophic blow to the CIA’s network — as many spies
were arrested or executed.

The US also believes that two suspected Chinese cyber attacks in
recent years — one on the Office of Personnel Management which
maintains government employee records, and another on the Marriott
hotel group — were part of an operation designed to help China
identify covert US intelligence operatives in the country.

As the US strikes a tougher tone, China is losing constituencies that
once helped balance the more hawkish views in security circles. US
academics who were seen as friendly to China are becoming warier as
Beijing cracks down on human rights, not least those of the Uighurs
held in mass detention centres in Xinjiang, fails to follow through on
economic pledges, presses US scholars to be less critical and moves
backwards in terms of political reform.

“People I’ve known for decades have given up on China,” says Susan
Shirk, chair of the 21st century China Center at the University of
California San Diego. “There’s a widespread view in the academic
community that the overreaching China has done both domestically and
internationally is hard-baked into the system and that there’s no hope
of getting them to adjust their behaviour to our interests and

A turning point that alarmed Washington came in late 2017 when Mr Xi
did not name a successor at the Communist party’s 19th congress. He
also pledged that China would become a fully modern economy by 2035 —
picking a date that some saw as another sign that he intended to
remain in power following his second five-year term. In a further sign
of centralising power, the National People’s Congress approved last
March a change in the constitution to remove the two-term limit on the

More recently, Mr Xi reignited concerns that he was moving backwards
on promised reforms when he used a speech commemorating China’s
economic opening 40 years ago to stress the primacy of the party. “No
one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what should or
should not be done,” he said in December.

One senior US administration official says China has misread the
change of mood in the US, adding that “even more disturbingly, they
just don’t care”. The official says the fact that Mr Xi’s speech had
focused on “the growing role of the Communist party in every aspect of
economic, political and personal life in China” suggested that Beijing
was not taking the US concerns seriously.

“I don’t see signs of a course shift by the top leadership,” says the official.

“I never thought China would aspire to be a Jeffersonian democracy or
espouse the western liberal order,” says Mr Paulson. “I always thought
the Communist party would be paramount, but I didn’t see the clock
being turned back.”

Ms Shirk says a major reason for the growing US backlash is that the
business community has “really soured on China”. “Right now, it is
totally out of balance because the national security concerns are
completely dominating the process and the business community isn’t
resisting,” she says.

Ryan Hass, a former White House official now at the Brookings
Institution, says many US companies had “promise fatigue”. While many
did not agree with the approach Mr Trump was taking on trade, they
wanted him to be tough on China on market access and were “trying to
use Trump’s instincts for disruption [to] their advantage”.

“The Chinese leadership has promised for years that reform was around
the bend and then you see things like President Xi’s speech where he
emphasised the central role of the party,” says Mr Hass. “Members of
the business community see the Trump administration as an opportunity
for the US to rattle the cage in Beijing.”

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics

Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng

You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang
Law & Politics

China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a
combination of data from video surveillance, face and license plate
recognition, mobile device locations, and official records to identify
targets for detention. Xinjiang is surely a precursor for how the CCCP
will manage dissent. The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional
authorities’ ongoing “strike-hard” campaign, and of Xi’s “stability
maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region.

face of President Xi Jinping. Each image was identical: the country’s
supreme leader, with raven-black hair and a face fastidiously
airbrushed to erase any hint of human blemish, smiling calmly, against
a sky-blue background: an unimpeachable deity in an officially atheist

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1408
Dollar Index 95.95
Japan Yen 108.49
Swiss Franc 0.9882
Pound 1.2858
Aussie 0.7197
India Rupee 71.005
South Korea Won 1121.745
Brazil Real 3.7173
Egypt Pound 17.91
South Africa Rand 13.755

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@netflix Price Hike for U.S. Subscribers Sends Shares Higher @business
World Currencies

Netflix Inc. is raising its U.S. prices for the first time since 2017,
sending its shares higher as investors anticipate more revenue for the
streaming giant.
The company’s shares rose as much as 6.2 percent in early trading on
reports of the new pricing, in which the most popular plan will rise
to $13 a month from $11.
“We change pricing from time to time as we continue investing in great
entertainment and improving the overall Netflix experience for the
benefit of our members,” Netflix said in an emailed statement.
The price hike is the largest since Netflix launched its streaming
service 12 years ago and is the first time an increase will hit all 58
million U.S. subscribers, the Associated Press reported.
The move came as Goldman Sachs analysts said they expect Netflix to
issue strong fourth-quarter results and first-quarter guidance on


Remains a ''Must-Have'' stock

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NFLX:USNASDAQ GS Netflix Inc @business
World Currencies

P/E Ratio115.82
Bloomberg (BEst) P/E Ratio91.3990
Bloomberg (BEst) PEG Ratio2.5225
Shares Outstanding436.08M
Price to Book Ratio30.5019
Price to Sales Ratio10.1485
1 Year Return57.20%
30 Day Avg Volume13,279,016
Bloomberg (BEst) EPS Curr Yr3.2140
Last Dividend Reported--

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Crude Oil Chart INO 52.14

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Congo voting data reveal huge fraud in election to replace Kabila @FT

Martin Fayulu was the clear winner of the Democratic Republic of
Congo’s presidential elections last month, a Financial Times analysis
of two separate collections of voting data shows, contradicting claims
from authorities that rival contender Felix Tshisekedi had won the
historic vote. The analysis points to huge fraud in the first change
of power since Joseph Kabila took over the presidency of the
mineral-rich central African nation almost 18 years ago. It is likely
to embolden critics of Mr Kabila who suspect the Congolese leader is
seeking to cling on to power through a deal with Mr Tshisekedi.
According to a trove of election data seen by the FT and representing
86 per cent of total votes cast across the country, Mr Fayulu won 59.4
per cent of the vote. Rival opposition candidate Mr Tshisekedi, who
was declared the surprise winner last week, finished second with 19
per cent, according to this set of data.
An FT analysis of a separate set of voting results collected manually
by the Catholic Church’s 40,000 observers and representing 43 per cent
of turnout shows that Mr Fayulu secured 62.8 per cent of this sample
of votes. The results gathered across 28,733 polling points match
almost perfectly the more extensive set of official results seen by
the FT. The larger set of data, a spreadsheet containing more than
49,000 records, contains the true electronically-fed results that
authorities have sought to conceal, according to a person with direct
knowledge of how the data were obtained. The person, who is close to
Mr Fayulu’s camp, asked for anonymity because the data contradict the
electoral commission’s official declaration.
The figures provided are electronic tallies from 62,716 voting
machines across the country and were obtained from the electoral
commission’s central database before the results were announced last
week, the person said. An FT analysis of the tallies shows a near
perfect correlation with the Church’s partial results — with a
correlation coefficient ranging from 0.976 to 0.991 for each of the
three leading candidates (1 representing a perfect match).
The new figures support the Church’s assertion last week that the
electoral commission published false results.
“It is extremely difficult to believe . . . that tens of thousands of
lines of data could have been fabricated on short notice to produce
these results without signs of tampering,” said Jason Stearns,
director of the Congo Research Group at the Center on International
Cooperation, a New York think-tank, who also reviewed the leaked data.
“This highlights the need for a full, scrupulous audit of the election
The electoral commission denied its results were fraudulent. Barnabé
Kikaya Bin Karubi, chief diplomatic adviser to Mr Kabila, said it
would be up to the constitutional court to decide on the validity of
the election and declined to comment on any potential fraud. Gilbert
Kankonde Nkashama, a spokesman for Mr Tshisekedi, said that it was
impossible that Mr Fayulu had won the election and questioned the
independence of the Catholic Church. Mr Fayulu is seeking to overturn
the result in the constitutional court, although the court’s
impartiality has also been questioned.

Congo, a former Belgian colony of 80m people, has held only four
elections since independence in 1960 and has never before had a
transfer of power through the ballot box. Mr Kabila was due to step
down in 2016 but elections were delayed until street protests and
regional pressure forced him to hold the vote. Mr Kabila’s ruling
coalition had sought to retain control of the presidency through
Emmanuel Shadary, his chosen successor. Mr Fayulu’s supporters have
alleged that when voters failed to come out for Mr Shadary in
sufficient numbers — he finished third — the election commission was
told to install Mr Tshisekedi instead. According to the results seen
by the FT, Mr Fayulu received more than 9.3m votes, 3m more than the
electoral commission announced, and won in 19 of Congo’s 26 provinces,
including the capital Kinshasa and the heavily populated eastern
provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu. In contrast, Mr Tshisekedi
scored 3m votes, the data indicate, 4.1m fewer than the electoral
commission showed, while Mr Shadary secured 2.9m votes, or 1.5m votes
fewer than the published tally.

The data show the results of 15.7m out of the 18.3m votes that were
cast on election day, but the missing votes could not have resulted in
a different winner. Malfunctions in voting machines meant that not all
vote tallies were transmitted to the central database, the person with
knowledge of the database said.
The file takes the form of a spreadsheet of comma-separated values, a
format used by many software packages to store tabular data, and runs
to more than 49,000 rows. Each polling station is identified by a
unique six-digit number. The FT analysis also found no significant
evidence that the data deviated from Benford’s law, a statistical test
commonly used in fields such as forensic accounting to identify
fraudulent data.

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By Killing the Internet, Zimbabwe Kills Commerce and the Lights @BBGAfrica

When the Zimbabwean government ordered internet service providers to
shutter parts of the web in an effort to curb anti-government
protests, it also plunged homes into darkness because people can’t pay
their utilities online.
Most people in the southern African nation use Econet Wireless
Zimbabwe Ltd.’s Ecocash mobile-phone payment system for daily
transactions. They buy electricity in units of $5 or less and almost
all domestic users are on prepaid meters, so many buy for $1 at a
According to Zimbabwe’s Finance Ministry less than 5 percent of
commercial transactions in the country involve cash, mainly because
it’s hard to find. Instead Zimbabweans use Ecocash or bank cards.
“Tonight will be spent in darkness,” said 42-year-old John Pedzesai,
who sells plants on a sidewalk in the capital, Harare.
Econet, Zimbabwe’s biggest mobile-phone company, declined to comment.

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ICC judges acquit former Ivory Coast president Gbagbo AP

In a stunning blow to prosecutors, Presiding Judge Cuno Tarfusser
ordered the immediate release of the 73-year-old Gbagbo and Ble Goude
following the judgment midway through their trial. He later suspended
that order ahead of a follow-up hearing on Wednesday, when prosecutors
are expected to announce whether they will appeal.

Gbagbo was the first former president to go on trial at the global
court and his case was seen as a milestone in efforts to bring to
justice even the highest-ranking leaders accused of atrocities.

Tarfusser said a majority of the three-judge chamber ruled that “the
prosecutor has failed to satisfy the burden of proof” against both

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.51% 2019

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.7580


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.906


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.11% 2019


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -0.15% 2019


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Kenyan Economy

I have eaten at the #Dusit had meetings there. Its just about 700m
from my Office. May the Souls of the departed rest in peace.

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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +2.21% 2019
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.77% 2019


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2019

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