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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 21st of March 2019
 
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Macro Thoughts

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US 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield...Today: 0.06% (flattest since Aug 2007) @charliebilello
Africa


Mar '09: 2.43%
Mar '10: 3.52%
Mar '11: 3.24%
Mar '12: 2.28%
Mar '13: 1.89%
Mar '14: 2.73%
Mar '15: 1.92%
Mar '16: 1.61%
Mar '17: 1.71%
Mar '18: 1.08%
Today: 0.06% (flattest since Aug 2007)

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29-APR-2013 :: The Brothers Tsarnaev and the Long Tail Put in a different way, there are surely many Brothers Tsarnaev in this new c21st of ours
Law & Politics


There are more than seven billion of us now in this c21st world of
ours. The long tail in a population of seven billion is not an
insignificant absolute number.
‘’In statistics, a long tail of some distributions of numbers is the
portion of the distribution having a large number of occurrences far
from the “head” or central part of the distribution.’’
Put in a different way, there are surely many Brothers Tsarnaev in
this new c21st of ours.
 In truth, that disaffection might have any number of reasons and I am
reminded of my French O level where I studied Albert Camus’ L’Etranger
and Camus said;
“The byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible
love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition
exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible
exaltation of a brief and destructive action*.”

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28-JAN-2019 :: ''This catastrophic event changes the way we think and act, moment to moment, week to week, for unknown weeks and months to come, and steely years. our world, parts of our world, have crumbled into theirs, which means we are living in a pl
Law & Politics


Don De Lillo wrote about this about Terror

‘’Terror’s response is a narrative that has been developing over
years, only now becoming inescapable. It is our lives and minds that
are occupied now. This catastrophic event changes the way we think and
act, moment to moment, week to week, for unknown weeks and months to
come, and steely years. our world, parts of our world, have crumbled
into theirs, which means we are living in a place of danger and rage’’

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17-SEP-2012 :: Now what are the consequences of this new 21st century madding crowd? A madding crowd which can be inflamed by a fellow with a camera and an account with YouTube.
Law & Politics


There are plenty of flame throwers in a population of seven billion.
Bacile has shown that the 21st century equivalent of throwing the
match is a camera and the knowledge of how to upload content onto
Youtube. The consequences of throwing a Match onto a tinderbox are
entirely unpredictable, by their nature.

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4 FEB 19 :: "The edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over," Hunter S Thompson.
Law & Politics


The Chavez Revolution was always a rebellion in the Superpower’s back
yard and the machine was eventually going to bring it to heel by hook
or by crook.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1400
Dollar Index 96.06
Japan Yen 110.37
Swiss Franc 0.9926
Pound 1.3168
Aussie 0.7143
India Rupee 68.5835
South Korea Won 1127.45
Brazil Real 3.7757
Egypt Pound 17.30
South Africa Rand 14.1809

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Masque portrait ancien - Kongo Yombe - RDC Zaire @AfrikInfo/
Africa


Le terme Mayombe désigne une grande région boisée située en majeure
partie au Zaire mais aussi en grande partie au Cabinda, Congo et Gabon
@brumignot

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Congo Leader Blocks Senate Inaugurations After Alleged Graft @business @WTBClowes
Africa


Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi blocked senators from taking
their seats after an election at the weekend marred by allegations of
corruption.
The decision further delays Tshisekedi’s formation of a new
government, almost three months after he won a disputed election to
lead the world’s biggest cobalt producer.
It comes less than two weeks after he and ex-President Joseph Kabila,
whose allies won the most seats in parliament’s upper chamber, agreed
to govern the central African nation in a coalition.
The president “has suspended the installation of senators,” interim
Interior Minister Basile Olongo told reporters in the capital,
Kinshasa, after a meeting attended by ministers and the head of the
electoral commission.
Kabila’s Common Front for Congo, known as the FCC, won more than
two-thirds of the 100 available Senate seats in the March 15 ballot.
Tshisekedi’s party and his allies got three.
The senatorial poll took place amid accusations of vote-selling by
members of Congo’s provincial parliaments, who elect the upper chamber
in a secret ballot.
Supporters of Tshisekedi’s Union for Democracy and Social Progress, or
UDPS, protested the results in several cities at the weekend,
vandalizing some offices of Kabila’s party.
Their anger is most intense in Kinshasa, where the UDPS didn’t win any
of the eight senatorial seats on offer despite controlling a quarter
of the local assembly.
“There are serious indications that these people were corrupted to
vote for other senators,” UDPS spokesman Paul Tshilumbu said by phone.
“There are lots of presumptions that it’s FCC people who had the money
to corrupt our parliamentarians.”
Tshisekedi has instructed Attorney General Flory Kabange Numbi to
begin an investigation into the corruption allegations and also
postponed gubernatorial elections scheduled for March 26, according to
Olongo.
The FCC immediately opposed the president’s decisions, which “go
against the constitution and the laws of the republic,” Nehemie
Mwilanya, a coalition official who served as Kabila’s chief of staff,
said in a statement.
Kabila’s People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy, or PPRD,
said it “outright rejects” Tshisekedi’s measures and urged its
senators to assume their seats “as soon as possible.”
The PPRD is the largest party in the FCC.
Congo’s constitution obliges the president to select a prime minister
from the ranks of the parliamentary majority and on March 7 the UDPS
and the FCC announced their intention to “facilitate the quick
establishment of a functioning government reflecting the will of the
people.”
Tshisekedi’s camp is “conscious that the FCC has a majority in
parliament, so we aren’t surprised if the Senate will be controlled by
them,” according to Tshilumbu.
“What we denounce is that our parliamentarians who are supposed to
support the president in the fight against corruption have accepted
money in order to be corrupted.”
The allegations of corruption come after Martin Fayulu, the runner-up
in the Dec. 30 presidential election, claimed that vote was rigged.
He accused Tshisekedi of doing a backroom deal with Kabila to deprive
him of victory -- a charge both men deny.
While Kabila’s preferred successor finished a distant third in the
contest, the FCC dominated national and provincial parliamentary
polls.

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For Africa, Chinese-Built @Huawei Internet Is Better Than No Internet at All @ForeignPolicy
Africa


Huawei has built about 70 percent of the continent’s 4G networks,
vastly outpacing European rivals, according to Cobus van Staden, a
senior China-Africa researcher at the South African Institute of
International Affairs.
The construction is often accompanied by loans from Chinese state
banks, which are approved faster and with fewer conditions than loans
from international institutions.
“At least for the time being, Africa doesn’t have any other cost or
competency alternatives,” said Howard French, who teaches at the
Columbia School of Journalism and has been the New York Times bureau
chief in West and Central Africa and in China.
The United States believes Huawei and other Chinese telecommunications
companies that build critical infrastructure around the world might be
installing so-called backdoors and using them to spy on behalf of the
Chinese government. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened
to withhold intelligence from countries that use Chinese networks.
Huawei’s founder has told the Wall Street Journal that his company has
never spied for China. But some experts are skeptical.
“This idea that Huawei would never reveal anything to the Chinese
state if asked is implausible because any Chinese company has to
operate within the rules of the Chinese state,” said French, the
author of Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape
China’s Push for Global Power.
In Africa, where internet penetration lags behind the global average
at 35.2 percent, Huawei’s compact rural cell towers have brought
internet access to remote regions while the M-Pesa cellphone banking
system, run on Huawei’s Mobile Money platform, has been lauded for
helping millions in East Africa move into the formal financial system.

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African Deals Show Emerging-Market Bulls Easily Outnumber Bears @business @PaulWallace123
Africa


West African neighbors Benin and Ghana issued $3.6 billion-worth of
bonds on Tuesday, and demand was sky-high as investors heartened by a
dovish tilt from the world’s largest central banks rushed to lock in
some of the juiciest yields across developing nations. For Benin, an
economy of barely $10 billion that’s rated four steps into junk, the
sale was its first foray into the market. Ghana’s bumper sale was even
more impressive, with investors looking past its volatile currency and
the risk of a fiscal splurge before elections next year. Benin
attracted more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) of orders for a 500
million-euro sale at a yield of 6 percent. Investors placed $20
billion of bids for Ghana’s $3 billion offering, with yields ranging
from 7.875 percent for a seven-year tranche to 8.95 percent for
31-year notes. “I’m not surprised” Ghana’s deal was heavily
oversubscribed, said Kevin Daly, a money manager at Aberdeen Standard
Investments in London, which oversees $730 billion of assets,
including African debt. “They will be in comfortable position not to
overspend on the deficit target next year.” If the world’s central
banks turn less dovish, Africa could be one of the first places to
suffer. But for now, emerging-market traders are convinced its high
risks are outweighed by its returns.

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31-DEC-2018 :: I like 30 year maturity African Eurobond Paper.. Double Digit Yields will be difficult to resist
Africa


I like 30 year maturity African Eurobond Paper.. Double Digit Yields
will be difficult to resist after sifting through the credit risk. You
might consider putting together a Portfo- lio and leveraging it 50%.
30 Years is a long enough Off-Ramp to get our Ducks in a row.

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28-JAN-2019 :: downshifting has seen the US interest curve shift significantly lower and this in turn has boosted Frontier and SSA Sovereign debt prices and lowered yields.
Law & Politics


This downshifting has seen the US interest curve shift significantly
lower and this in turn has boosted Frontier and SSA Sovereign debt
prices and lowered yields. For example, Kenya’s 30 Year Eurobond
denominated in Dollars was close to 10% and has rallied about 100
basis points off those levels.

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Africa


From a few pre-fin crisis debuts, to many debuts 2012-14. Then large
issuance from #Egypt & #Nigeria over the past 3 years. #Benin makes it
21 countries.

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Co-operative Bank of Kenya @Coopbankenya reports FY 2018 EPS +9.548% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           15.05
Total Shares Issued:          5867179554.00
Market Capitalization:        88,301,052,288
EPS:            2.18
PE:             6.903

Cooperative Bank of Kenya FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018
vs. 31st December 2017
FY Investment securities held to maturity – Kenya Gov’t 49.701030b vs.
43.983288b +13.000% FY Loans and advances to customers (net)
245.410302b vs. 253.861644b -3.329%
FY Total Assets 413.413215b vs. 386.857657b +6.864%
FY Customer deposits 306.117046b vs. 287.371708b +6.523%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 69.864008b vs. 69.564967b +0.430%
FY Loans and advances income 32.946490b vs. 31.942067b +3.145%
FY Government securities income 9.789407b vs. 8.213551b +20.507%
FY Total interest income 43.024863b vs. 40.373188b +6.568%
FY Customer deposits expenses [10.890477b] vs. [10.846272b] +0.408%
FY Total interest expenses [12.240115b] vs. [12.269219b] -0.237%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 30.784748b vs. 28.103969b +9.539%
FY Fees and commissions on loans and advances 575.852m vs. 2.599698b -77.849%
FY Other fees and commissions 8.941686b vs. 7.215713b +23.920%
FY FX Trading income 2.284887b vs. 2.230910b +2.420%
FY Other income 1.007790b vs. 1.372843b -26.591%
FY Total non-interest income 12.893502b vs. 13.492040b -4.436%
FY Total operating income 43.678250b vs. 41.596009b +5.006%
FY Loan loss provision [1.840728b] vs. [3.601252b] -48.886% [cut its
loan loss provision by half to Sh1.84 billion even as non-performing
loans rose by 56.7 per cent or Sh10.6 billion to Sh29.4 billion]
FY Total other operating expenses [25.692535b] vs. [25.327275b] +1.442%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 17.985715b vs.
16.268734b +10.554%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax 18.157131b vs. 16.398638b +10.723%
FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 12.732487b vs.
11.405065b +11.639%
Basic and diluted EPS 2.18 vs. 1.99 +9.548%
Dividend per share 1.00 vs. 0.80 +25.000%
Total NPL and Advances 25.202025b vs. 17.812836b +41.482%
Net NPL 15.256765b vs. 11.710787b +30.280%

Conclusions


Total Assets +6.864% was marginally above Trend.
Trailing PE Ratio of 6.903 leaves room to the upside for the Price

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Diamond Trust @DTBKenya reports FY 2018 EPS +0.759% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:           138.00
Total Shares Issued:          279602220.00
Market Capitalization:        38,585,106,360
EPS:             23.91
PE:             5.7716

Prominent Kenyan commercial bank

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Limited FY 2018 results through 31st December
2018 vs. 31st December 2017
FY Kenya government securities – held to maturity 85.806712b vs.
84.895740b +1.073%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 193.074357b vs. 196.048155b -1.517%
FY Total assets 377.719314b vs. 363.303400b +3.968%
FY Customer deposits 282.860003b vs. 266.246854b +6.240%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 53.657050b vs. 48.369795b +10.931%
FY Loans and advances interest income 21.956985b vs. 22.651861b -3.068%
FY Government securities interest income 13.010069b vs. 11.744676b +10.774%
FY Total interest income 35.268503b vs. 34.628790b +1.847%
FY Customer deposits expense [13.463538b] vs. [13.497804b] -0.254%
FY Net interest income 20.021514b vs. 19.675078b +1.761%
FY Fees and commissions on loans and advances 1.284128b vs. 1.261206b +1.817%
FY Other fees and commissions income 2.157644b vs. 1.995208b +8.141%
FY Total non-interest income 5.434635b vs. 5.275409b +3.018%
FY Total operating income 25.456149b vs. 24.950487b +2.027%
FY Loan loss provision [2.982261b] vs. [4.300777b] -30.658%
FY Total operating expenses [14.485360b] vs. [14.860642b] -2.525%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 10.970789b vs. 10.089845b +8.731%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 7.082115b vs. 6.925040b +2.268%
EPS 23.91 vs. 23.73 +0.759%
Dividend per share 2.60 vs. 2.60 –
Net NPL and advances 6.724012b vs. 4.816854b +39.593%

Conclusions


They retain 89.125% of FY EPS.
Defensive posture in FY 2018 with Loans and Advances declining -1.517%

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NIC Bank @nicbankkenya reports FY 2018 EPS -7.253% Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           37.15
Total Shares Issued:          703,940,163
Market Capitalization:        26,151,377,055
EPS:             6.01
PE:              6.181

Well established Kenyan commercial bank.

NIC Group PLC FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs. 31st December 2017

FY Kenya Government securities – held to maturity 22.742049b vs.
21.577580b +5.397%
FY Kenya Government securities – available for sale 35.304859b vs
29.917488b +18.007%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 118.071672b vs. 119.760537b -1.410%
FY Total assets 208.499554b vs. 206.172460b +1.129%
FY Customer deposits 144.501060b vs. 138.916570b +4.020%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 35.425327b vs. 34.785133b +1.840%
FY Loans and advances interest income 12.339213b vs. 13.145500b -6.134%
FY Total interest income 19.295810b vs. 18.415422b +4.781%
FY Customer deposits expense [7.183476b] vs. [5.955774b] +20.614%
FY Total interest expense [8.716105b] vs. [7.641620b] +14.061%
FY Net interest income 10.579705b vs. 10.773802b -1.802%
FY Total non-interest income 4.638200b vs. 4.164340b +11.379%
FY Total operating income 15.217905b vs. 14.938142b +1.873 %
FY Loan loss provision [2.353977b] vs. [2.979273b] -20.317%
FY Other operating expenses [2.341760b] vs. [2.114012b] +10.773%
FY Total operating expenses [9.395040b] vs. [9.337192b] +0.620%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 5.822865b vs. 5.600950b +3.962%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 4.228370b vs. 4.144418b +2.026%
Basic and diluted EPS 6.01 vs. 6.48 -7.253%
Final dividend 1.25 vs. 1.00 +25.00%
Total NPL and advances 14.673953b vs. 13.038800b +12.541%
Net NPL and advances 9.512541b vs. 7.773090b +22.378%

NB
Total Shares Issued: 703,940,163
Bonus share 1:10 issued in 2018

Conclusions

Solid results in a difficult Tier 2 Banking World which they have now
escaped via the reverse merger with CBA.

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Kenya's Worst Performing Stocks(15th Mar 2019) @mmnjug
Kenyan Economy


1. @KenyaAirways -38.2%
2. @UchumiKenya -26.3%
3. Home Afrika -25.7%
4. Liberty -21.3%
5. @WPPScangroup -20.7%
6. BAT -20%
7. @KenGenKenya -14.8%
8. Fahari I-Reit -13.8%
9. @DTBKenya -11.2%
10. @NationMediaGrp -9.9%

@FIB_Kenya

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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