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Macro Thoughts

The Questions that Investors need to ask themselves are the following?
How much higher will the FED dial up rates? The markets are signalling
not much more. Powell [who has incurred Trump's wrath] predicted two
more quarter point hikes in 2019. A lot hinges on this outlook.

The break-down last week after Fed meeting was a bear trap and set the
foundation for more upside and now its formed a clear inverse-head-and
shoulders base as part of that. If it can break out target is 97.70

Home Thoughts

Humans have been around for more than 2 million years. But in the last
44 years, we have achieved what we haven’t in all this while: a mass
annihilation of our fellow earthlings.
Between 1970 and 2014, Earth lost nearly 60% decline of its mammals,
birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians, almost all of it due to human
activity.
The rate at which Earth is losing its biodiversity is comparable only
to the mass extinctions. This and other findings have been published
by the World Wildlife Fund in its Living Planet Report 2018, a
stinging reminder of the declining health of the planet.
Published by WWF every two years, the report documents the state of
the planet in terms of biodiversity, ecosystems, the demand on natural
resources and its impact on nature and wildlife. This year, its
results are even more devastating than ever:
20% of the Amazon has disappeared in just 50 years
On a global scale, the area of minimally disturbed forests declined by
92 million hectares between 2000 and 2013
Of all species that have gone extinct since 1500 AD, 75% were harmed
by overexploitation or agriculture
Ocean acidification may be occurring at a rate not seen in at least
300 million years. The Earth is estimated to have lost 50% of its
shallow water corals in the past 30 years
Humans are responsible for releasing 100 billion tonnes of carbon into
the Earth’s system every 10 years.
In April 2018, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached an
average of 410 parts per million (ppm) across the entire month–the
highest level in at least 800,000 years
Only 25% of land on Earth is substantively free of the impacts of
human activities. This is projected to decline to just 10% by 2050
The report states that as our reliance on natural reserves continues
to grow, it’s clear that nature is not just a ‘nice thing to have’.
It’s imperative for our survival.
WWF along with conservation and science colleagues around the world
are calling for a new global deal between nature and people, involving
decision makers at every level to make the right political, financial
and consumer choices.
WWF is collaborating with a consortium of almost 40 universities and
organisations to launch a research initiative that will explore the
critical work of putting together the best ways to save the planet.
The report says that the biggest challenge—and biggest
opportunity—lies in changing our approach to development and remember
that protecting nature also helps protect people.
In the words of Marco Lambertini, Director General of WWF
International, “Today, we still have a choice. We can be the founders
of a global movement that changed our relationship with the planet. Or
we can be the generation that had its chance and failed to act. The
choice is ours.”

we can be the generation that had its chance and failed to act; that
let Earth slip away. The choice is ours.  Marco Lambertini
All economic activity ultimately depends on services provided by
nature, estimated to be worth around US$125 trillion a year.
Marine and freshwater ecosystems are also facing huge pressures.
Almost 6 billion tonnes of fish and invertebrates have been taken from
the world’s oceans since 1950.
The Living Planet Index also tracks the state of global biodiversity
by measuring the population abundance of thousands of vertebrate
species around the world. The latest index shows an overall decline of
60% in population sizes between 1970 and 2014.
Species population declines are especially pronounced in the tropics,
with South and Central America suffering the most dramatic decline, an
89% loss compared to 1970.
Freshwater species numbers have also declined dramatically, with the
Freshwater Index showing an 83% decline since 1970.
Since 1800, global population has grown sevenfold, surpassing 7.6
billion, and the global economy has grown 30-fold 30. But it has
really been in the last 50 years that economic development has driven
a phenomenal increase in the demand for energy, land and water that is
fundamentally changing Earth’s operating system.
Over the past 50 years our Ecological Footprint – a measure of our
consumption of natural resources – has increased by about 190%
Forests are among the richest ecosystems. Tropical, temperate and
boreal forests cover nearly 30% of the Earth’s land area 27, and yet
they are home to more than 80% of all terrestrial species of animals,
plants and insects 51,52.
FAO estimates that fisheries and aquaculture alone assure the
livelihoods of 10-12% of the world’s population, and 4.3 billion
people are reliant on fish (including freshwater) for 15% of their
animal protein intake 60. Nearly 200 million people depend on coral
reefs to protect them from storm surges and waves
latest index shows an overall decline of 60% in population sizes
between 1970 and 2014. Current rates of species extinction are 100 to
1,000 times higher than the background rate, also known as the
standard rate of extinction in Earth’s history before human pressure
became a prominent factor.

The leader of the upper house would then take over in a caretaker
capacity for 45 days

“El demonio,” says Betty Méndez, a local shopkeeper, by way of
explanation for the wave of looting and unrest that convulsed
Maracaibo earlier this month.
“Horror, fear, despair,” said María Villalobos, a 35-year-old
journalist, weeping as she relived three days of violence that many
here call la locura – “the madness”.
“I thought it was the start of a civil war.”

By late April, Mr Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are
likely to reach a deal ending their trade war, in which punitive
tariffs and counter-tariffs have been imposed on about two-thirds of
the countries’ bilateral goods trade.
When they do, the US president will hail centrally directed Chinese
purchases of American exports that will temporarily reduce the
country’s deficit in traded goods with China, while also making
Beijing’s foreign trade regime less market-driven than at present.
Will Mr Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, be successful
in forcing Mr Xi’s lead negotiator, vice-premier Liu He, to make
meaningful changes to China’s unique “state capitalism” development
model? Or will Mr Lighthizer’s offence prove less formidable than Mr
Liu’s defence?
Perhaps US companies’ biggest disappointment is that the trade deal
taking shape, according to people briefed on the negotiations, will be
very similar to the bilateral investment treaty the Obama
administration was close to reaching in late 2016.

The Speaker John Bercow quite properly guillotined Theresa May's
endless Groundhog Day, where she brought the same deal but for a
change of an Apostrophe to the Vote in the House of Commons. And in
fact, over the last few months we have watched Parliamentary Democracy
re-assert itself as The Prime Ministership's power has dimmed.

Some of the uncertainty we are all experiencing is watching the
President of the ''Free World'' seemingly torching the Rules Based
Order, thumping his Chest and as Bildt tweeted returning us to the
''Jungle''

Jacinda Aardern [an agnostic who took her oath of office without a
Bible or mention of God.  A living example that to be a humanitarian
you need no dogma; just compassion, love, an open heart and an open
mind @HarounRashid2] shattered the Glass Ceiling into tiny little
pieces. She is the First Western Leader to seek to assert Narrative
control over ''Terror'' The Symbolism of ''A biker gang providing an
escort to a hearse transporting the coffin of Haji Mohammed Daoud
Nabi, killed in New Zealand's twin mosque attacks, to the Memorial
Park Cemetery in Christchurch'' sums things up metaphorically and even
cryptically. She vowed never to utter the name of the twin-mosque
gunman to deprive him of the publicity he craved. She warned social
media companies saying "they are the publisher, not just the postman".

The Prime Minister of New Zealand asserted Narrative Control and
pushed back at what Don Delillo noted

 "I used to think it was possible for an artist to alter the inner
life of the culture. Now bomb-makers and gunmen have taken that
territory," Don DeLillo, Mao II.

If You want to measure a Soft Power Leapfrog, Keep an Eye on the Kiwis
and this remarkably sophisticated epitome of c21st Girl Power Jacinda
Aardern

Finally let us not forget the Egg Boy. Donations are being sought for
the boy's defense and "to buy more eggs" reports said

Euro 1.2502
Dollar Index 96.96
Japan Yen 110.69
Swiss Franc 0.9962
Pound 1.3185
Aussie 0.7095
India Rupee 68.95
South Korea Won 1134.585
Brazil Real 3.8770
Egypt Pound 17.3007
South Africa Rand 14.4642

Uber will pay Dubai-based Careem $1.4 billion in cash and another $1.7
billion in convertible notes when the deal closes, the two companies
said in a statement. They are seeking regulatory approval in the 15
countries where Careem operates. Bloomberg had previously reported
some details of the deal, which is expected to close in the first
quarter of 2020.
The deal comes as San Francisco-based Uber is preparing to file in
April for an initial public offering, people familiar with the matter
have said. The acquisition isn’t expected to slow down Uber’s IPO
process and will allow ride-hailing firm to emphasize its global
footprint relative to rival Lyft Inc., which is expected to begin
trading Friday.
The acquisition will be Uber’s priciest and will mark the first time
the company bought one of its regional competitors. Uber has sold many
international business units, including in China, Southeast Asia and
Russia, taking stakes in Didi Chuxing Inc., Grab and Yandex NV in the
process. Another recent major purchase was electric bike company Jump
Bikes.
The Careem acquisition represents one of the largest technology deals
in the Middle East, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As part
of the agreement, Careem will continue to operate as a standalone
brand even after the deal closes.
Because the move combines the two largest ride-hailing companies in
the Middle East, it could face regulatory scrutiny. One inevitable
selling point of the deal will be that it allows the two companies to
raise prices, while also reducing pressure to compete with each other
in how much they pay drivers.
"Uber was very good at convincing the management team that they can
run independently post-acquisition," said venture capitalist David
Chao, an investor in Careem, referring to the Dubai-based firm. "I
think terms were good and this was a huge victory for Uber."
Some of Careem’s early backers are set to benefit from the deal.
Riyadh-based Al Tayyar Travel Group, one of the company’s largest
corporate shareholders and earliest investors, said it expects to gain
at least 1.78 billion riyals ($470 million), pushing shares up more
than 8 percent. Saudi Telecom expects to get about $274 million in
cash and stock.
“For investors of Careem, this acquisition is a good deal as they have
the minimum guaranteed price of $3.1 billion,” said Meziane Lasfer,
Professor of Finance at Cass Business School in Dubai. As part of the
acquisition is paid for in Uber shares, Careem investors also have “a
large potential upside value” if the shares go higher than the $55
price the deal is based on.

He said, “Don’t get high on your ambitions. You won’t be able make
money on the back of this nation. You won’t be able to make this
nation kneel.” [They have already made a ton of money and you are
kneeling, Mr. President]
And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’
[In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]

Frontier Markets

On Avenida Eduardo Mondlane, which leads on to the elegant
colonial-era palace of the provincial governor, one building is
brightly-lit, with dozens of luxury cars parked outside. The hum of
generators disturbs the still night. This is Solange, one of the few
restaurants that remained open following the arrival of Cyclone Idai
on March 14, and it is doing a roaring trade in steak, tiger prawns
and imported Portuguese wine. In the wake of the disaster, some dishes
now go for 6 000 meticais (R1 370, US$95).

The restaurant is not feeding any of the hundreds of thousands of
people affected by the cyclone, which left at least 446 dead in
Mozambique and caused utter devastation across parts of Mozambique,
Zimbabwe and Malawi. Instead, its patrons are the ministers and senior
government officials who have flocked into Beira to assess the damage.
By day, they tour Buzi district — the worst affected — by helicopter,
observing the floods that have submerged entire villages and the
people perched on trees waiting for a rescue that may never come. By
night, they feast at Solange. It is their turn to eat.
Earlier on that same day, on Avenida de Moçambique, which runs through
the poorer, high-density suburb of Munhava, men and women are fishing
handfuls of rice from the flood waters. The water is up to their
knees. They make small mounds of congealing rice on the raised
pavement, letting it dry in the sunlight.
The rice comes from a nearby rice warehouse, which was stripped bare
the day before by hundreds of desperately hungry people looking for
sustenance wherever they can find it. Some of the bags fell apart in
the scramble, their contents falling into the water.
For these fishermen of rotting rice, this meal may be their first in
four days. It may be their salvation, keeping them alive until help
arrives. If help arrives.
One of them is 31-year-old Dikson Mafigo. “I know that rice can create
disease, but I have to choose between starvation or dying of disease
after eating,” he said.
John Felisberto lost his wife and son, buried by a wall of their house
when it collapses. They were buried without dignity, their bodies
carted in a wheelchair usually used to carry garbage. Him and his
daughter have been eating only sugar cane since the cyclone struck. He
has come because he feels like he has to do something. “We have
nothing and I can not stay at home watching a girl who lost her mother
and sister starving,” he said.
Later that night, in Solange, a cabinet minister asks the waiter. “Can
I see the wine list?”

Mozambique popped onto the global radar in 2011 when huge gas reserves
were discovered off-shore. We visited in 2012 and I recall the wife
being seriously astonished when we jumped in a taxi and the driver
turned out to be Portuguese.

I said ‘’Mozambique could be the next Qatar.’’ as we stuffed ourselves
with wonderfully flavour some tiger prawns.

Post-flood satellite images of Mozambique show that Cyclone Idai
submerged about 835 square miles of homes and fields — an area larger
than New York City, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Boston combined.
Aid workers in Mozambique describe the floodwaters as “inland oceans
extending for miles and miles.”
Idai’s official death toll in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi reached
761 on Monday, but that total will surely rise. There are reports of
hundreds of bodies alongside a single road as floodwaters began to
recede.
Beira, Mozambique, reportedly the hardest hit city, “will go down in
history as having been the first city to be completely devastated by
climate change,” said Graça Machel, the country’s former first lady
and a prominent humanitarian in an interview with the Mozambique
newspaper Verdade on Monday.

No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

Naspers Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Bob van Dijk has been working for
years to solve a problem rivals might envy – getting investors to
value his South African firm nearer to its $133 billion stake in
Tencent Holdings Ltd. A plan for a Dutch listing is his boldest step
yet.
By carving out its international internet businesses, including the 31
percent holding in the Chinese tech giant, for a listing on Euronext
Amsterdam, van Dijk hopes to tap a bigger pool of capital and shrink a
discount that’s been worsened by Naspers’ outsize presence on the
Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
“This will be the largest consumer internet business,” in Europe and
the third-largest company on the Amsterdam exchange, van Dijk said in
a phone interview, noting that he expects to attract 2 billion euros
($2.26 billion) of investment just from index funds. The value of the
Naspers offspring would likely trail only Royal Dutch Shell Plc and
Unilever NV on the Dutch market.
The move makes sense, and might narrow the gap between Naspers’ 1.42
trillion rand ($100 billion) market capitalization and the Tencent
stake, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Davies. But the bigger
challenge for van Dijk will be to show that the firm can strike gold
with more of its investments.
“The transfer doesn’t indicate whether Naspers can demonstrate a track
record of investment success” after the transaction, Davies said in a
note.
Naspers might have remained a little-known publisher of newspapers and
operator of pay-TV services if not for the decision in 2001 to invest
$32 million in an obscure Chinese web firm.
While the success of the Tencent investment made Naspers the most
valuable company in Africa, its market value suggests investors assign
no worth to its other businesses.
Naspers’ quandary is similar to those faced by other companies that
made hugely successful investments in technology startups that
eventually overshadowed their operating businesses, such as the
winning bets Yahoo! Inc. and SoftBank Group Corp. made on Alibaba
Group Holding Ltd.
Van Dijk, CEO since 2014, has focused much of his attention on India
and Europe and on e-commerce, delivery and online payments in his
search for the next brightest ideas. He has about $9 billion of cash
to spend after he trimmed Naspers’ stake in Tencent last year and
received proceeds from the sale of Indian e-commerce startup Flipkart
to Walmart Inc.
Among the holdings in internet businesses that will be included in the
Amsterdam-listed entity are Russian social network Mail.ru, German
food delivery business Delivery Hero and Indian e-commerce startup
Swiggy. Naspers will still control the new internet unit by keeping a
75 percent stake, with the remainder making up its free float.
The carve-out alone may not be enough to give Naspers the valuation
bump van Dijk is seeking. The shares continued to slump for a second
day on the Johannesburg stock exchange, trading 0.85 percent lower at
9.50 a.m. Tencent was down 1.5 percent in Hong Kong.
Ken Rumph, an analyst at Jefferies Group LLC in London, said in an
email that Naspers’ investment record outside of Tencent has been
good, but that the company “will continue to struggle to persuade
investors to value its management of assets at anything other than a
discount.”
Still, the value of the newly listed company, yet to be named, could
bump up against Europe’s largest tech firm, German software developer
SAP SE, which has a market capitalization of 121 billion euros.
Some investors have encouraged van Dijk to pursue listings, and he
said on Monday he will look at other opportunities. His separation of
pay-TV company MultiChoice this month focused Naspers entirely on
consumer internet businesses.
Van Dijk said he chose Amsterdam partly because it’s a “great place to
attract talent.” The listing requirements are very similar to
Johannesburg and the company can keep the same management and board.
Naspers’ executives are largely based in the Netherlands and travel
extensively, as they seek to replicate the Tencent bet.
Amsterdam has become attractive to companies as Brexit uncertainties
weigh on the U.K., including listings on the London Stock Exchange.
Thanks to its Tencent holding, Naspers accounts for almost a quarter
of the Johannesburg exchange’s benchmark index, up from 5 percent just
five years ago.
As a result, many South African institutional investors have had to
sell the shares because the weighting exceeds their limit for single
stock holdings, the company said.

Total SA’s discovery of South Africa’s first oil in deep water could
prove to be a bonanza for a country lacking crude reserves of its own
and prompt a rush from other majors. That’s if they’re able to solve
the engineering challenges of operating in one of the fastest ocean
currents in the world.
The Brulpadda find, with reserves estimated at about 1 billion barrels
of oil, is located in deep waters around 175 kilometers (109 miles)
from South Africa’s coastline. It could be enough to supply South
Africa’s refineries for almost four years and be a major boost for the
country’s struggling economy.
But the prospect is surrounded by the Agulhas current, a fast-moving
flow of warm water where the Atlantic and Indian oceans converge,
which travels the country’s east coast and can cause waves the height
of a multistory building.
Total says it’s found solutions to the problems, but not every
explorer has the financial resources or harsh-environment experience
of the French oil major.

Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.4602 [precipice]
https://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=f&a=&w=&v=d12

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.09% 2019
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           42.35
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        156,812,606,797
EPS:             5.25
PE:              8.066

Equity Group Holdings PLC FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018
vs. 31st December 2017
FY Kenyan government securities – held to maturity 160.952084b vs.
128.001775b +25.742%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 297.226915b vs. 279.091669b +6.498%
FY Total assets 573.384730b vs. 524.465745b +9.327%
FY Customer deposits 422.758486b vs. 373.143247b +13.297%
FY Borrowed funds 44.179673b vs. 46.137632b -4.244%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 94.957725b vs. 93.142936b +1.948%
FY Loans and advances interest income 36.415466b vs. 33.880635b +7.482%
FY Government securities interest income 16.301265b vs. 13.393880b +21.707%
FY Total interest income 53.230254b vs. 48.410471b +9.956%
FY Customer deposits expense [9.426897b] vs. [8.075892b] +16.729%
FY Other interest expenses [1.849890b] vs. [2.418697b] -23.517%
FY Total interest expenses [11.808066b] vs. [10.840862b] +8.922%
FY Net interest income 41.422188b vs. 37.569609b +10.255%
FY Fees and commissions income on loans and advances 4.932106b vs.
5.914035b -16.603%
FY Other fees and commissions income 13.332054b vs. 13.365790b -0.252%
FY FX trading income 3.308959b vs. 4.110964b -19.509%
FY Total non-interest income 25.861374b vs. 27.591699b -6.271%
FY Total operating income 67.283562b vs. 65.161308b +3.257%
FY Loan loss provision [3.713521b] vs. [3.431331b] +8.224 %
FY Staff costs [11.455559b] vs. [11.475853b] -0.177%
FY Other operating expenses [16.865467b] vs. [16.310153b] +3.405%
FY Total operating expenses [38.820612b] vs. [38.278885b] +1.415%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 28.462950b vs.
26.882423b +5.879%
FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 19.823933b vs.
18.918051b +4.788%
Basic and diluted EPS 5.25 vs. 5.00 +5.000%
Dividend per share 2.00 vs. 2.00 –
Total NPL and advances 21.094581b vs. 15.442413b +36.602%
Liquidity ratio 54.1% vs. 54.2% -0.100%

 Double digit growth in profitability for non-Kenyan subsidiaries 
Enhanced PAT contribution to Group at 15%

Conckusions

Dr. James Mwangi pivoted towards the Safe Haven a while back.
Interesting Tanzania Data.
I am bullish about the Regional Extension.
3 Years unchanged dividend

Par Value:
Closing Price:           94.00
Total Shares Issued:          413405369.00
Market Capitalization:        38,860,104,686
EPS:             19.23
PE:               4.888

I&M Holdings Limited FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs.
31st December 2017
FY Kenya government securities – held to maturity 18.306701b vs.
20.747773b -11.765%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 166.736729b vs. 153.018152b +8.965%
FY Total assets 288.522049b vs. 240.110741b +20.162%
FY Customer deposits 213.139370b vs. 169.282314b +25.908%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 47.869031b vs. 44.319853b +8.008%
FY Loans and advances interest income 20.673770b vs. 18.879611b +9.503%
FY Government securities interest income 4.964391b vs. 5.360089b -7.382%
FY Total interest income 25.998868b vs. 24.423762b +6.449%
FY Customer deposit interest expense [8.800765b] vs. [7.571926b] +16.229%
FY Total interest expense [10.404686b] vs. [8.869275b] +17.312%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 15.594182b vs. 15.554487b +0.255%
FY Fees and commission on loans and advanced 1.777524b vs. 1.117082b +59.122%
FY Foreign exchange trading income/ [loss] 2.567418b vs. 1.828903b +40.380%
FY Total Non-interest expense 7.597341b vs. 5.762826b +31.834%
FY Total operating income 23.191523b vs. 21.317313b +8.792%
FY Loan loss provision [3.807345b] vs. [4.143521b] -8.113%
FY Staff costs [4.051835b] vs. [3.694803b] +9.663%
FY Other operating expenses [3.027925b] vs. [2.826885b] +7.112%
FY Total other operating expenses [12.289053b] vs. [11.977704b] +2.599%
FY Profit/ [loss] before tax and exceptional items 10.902470b vs.
9.339609b +16.734%
FY Profit/ [loss] after tax and exceptional items 8.503357b vs.
7.264249b +17.058%
Basic and diluted EPS 19.23 vs. 16.37 +17.471%
Dividend per share 3.90 vs. 3.50 +11.429%
Net NPL and Advances 10.377431b vs. 11.693109b -11.252%
Liquidity ratio 46.99% vs. 35.67% +11.320%
Bonus issue
1:1 ratio
The Board has resolved to recommend the issuance of bonus share of one
(1) new fully paid up bonus share of a par value KShs 1.00 for every
one (1) ordinary shares of par value KShs 1.00 to be issued to the
shareholders registered on the Company’s register at the close of
business on 10 May 2019.

Conclusions

The 1:1 Bonus will create an upwards Price bias assisted by an above
Industry wide FY EPS gain

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php