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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 28th of March 2019

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as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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The premise of ZIRP / NIRP was always these are temporary measures for atrial fibrillation of the economy. @sunchartist

10 years later same medicine in ever larger dosage to keep the patient
alive. The definition of vegetative state

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13-AUG-2018 Erdogan remains a limit short trading position.

President Erdogan is a shakespearean figure, he has slayed enemies
real and not real, his chest has been puffed up with pride, he even
rescued the Emir of Qatar but he has now met his match, that match
being the markets. I hope he still has Madam Lagarde’s number on speed

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13-AUG-2018 :: Cold Turkey. @TheStarKenya

He said, “Don’t get high on your ambitions. You won’t be able make
money on the back of this nation. You won’t be able to make this
nation kneel.” [They have already made a ton of money and you are
kneeling, Mr. President]
And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’
[In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]

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Since Sunday alone, the U.S. has sailed a warship through the Taiwan Strait, released a report criticizing travel restrictions in Tibet and hosted Uighur exiles at the State Department. @business
Law & Politics

Even as the U.S. and China near a deal on trade, the Trump
administration is becoming increasingly assertive in challenging
Beijing on its geopolitical red lines.
Since Sunday alone, the U.S. has sailed a warship through the Taiwan
Strait, released a report criticizing travel restrictions in Tibet and
hosted Uighur exiles at the State Department.
The moves -- all of them defying China’s warnings against meddling in
what it views as its internal affairs -- came ahead the arrival of
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert
Lighthizer in Beijing for trade talks.
Wang Dong, secretary-general of the Pangoal Institution, a
Beijing-based research group, said the American moves evoked the
“gunboat diplomacy” of the 19th century, when the U.S. and other
Western powers used their naval might to force open Asian markets.
“Even if their intention is to use this as a way to send some sort of
signal to China, I think it is a very dumb one,” said Wang, who’s also
an international relations professor at Peking University. “China is
not Iraq or Venezuela. The United States will not always get its way
with gunboat diplomacy.”
“Fortunately, in facing these challenges, Taiwan does not stand
alone,” Tsai said Wednesday in an address to the Washington-based
Heritage Foundation by video link. “The United States’ commitment to
Taiwan is stronger than ever.”
The U.S. has complicated Beijing’s efforts to consolidate control on
its frontiers, dispatching warships to challenge Chinese claims in the
disputed South China Sea. U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has
also criticized China’s “abhorrent” detention of as many as 1 million
Uighur Muslims in the country’s far west, and met with a group of
exiles in Washington on Tuesday.
Keeping such frictions from interfering with trade talks could become
more difficult as negotiations drag on and the U.S. pushes harder on
sensitive fronts. And Xi can only tolerate so much as he tries to
protect his image as a strong leader capable of completing China’s
return to global influence after a “century of humiliation” at the
hands of imperial powers.
“The U.S. seems to be more willing to play the Taiwan card in a rather
radical way,” the nationalistic Global Times said in a March 6
editorial. “But such action is risky and will meet with retaliation
from Beijing if it goes too far, which will in turn harm U.S.

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4 FEB 19 :: "The edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over," Hunter S Thompson.
Law & Politics

The Chavez Revolution was always a rebellion in the Superpower’s back
yard and the machine was eventually going to bring it to heel by hook
or by crook.

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Lady Doth Protest too Much
Law & Politics

Player Queen:
“Both here and hence pursue me lasting strife …”

Player King:
“‘Tis deeply sworn. Sweet, leave me here a while …”

Player Queen:
“Sleep rock thy brain,
And never come mischance between us twain!”

“Madam, how like you this play?”

“The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1235
Dollar Index 97.04
Japan Yen 110.09
Swiss Franc 0.9961
Pound 1.3133
Aussie 0.7089
India Rupee 68.9535
South Korea Won 1137.13
Brazil Real 3.9915
Egypt Pound 17.3080
South Africa Rand 14.6167

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Yet for all the scrutiny @Boeing faced after the crash of @flyethiopian Airlines Flight 302 and the subsequent grounding of its 737 Max planes around the world, the company initially had very little to say. @nytimesbusiness
International Trade

Dennis A. Muilenburg, the chief executive, is on the board of the
Business Roundtable, an influential group that seeks to shape public
policy. Boeing’s top executive in the nation’s capital is a seasoned
operator who worked in the Clinton White House.
Yet for all the scrutiny Boeing faced after the crash of Ethiopian
Airlines Flight 302 and the subsequent grounding of its 737 Max planes
around the world, the company initially had very little to say.
It issued brief statements, expressing sympathy and standing by its
planes. It communicated quietly with the news media and government
officials. And Mr. Muilenburg stayed out of sight — his first
substantial public comments came in the form of a statement released
more than a week after the crash in Ethiopia — and to many observers,
Boeing appeared to be caught flat-footed by the growing public outcry.
“Their comments have been very engineering-esque,” said Richard
Levick, founder of Levick, a Washington crisis communications firm.
“There has been no human face to this.”
Aviation experts zeroed in on new anti-stall software included in the
737 Max that is believed to have contributed to the Lion Air crash and
may have played a role in the Ethiopian Airlines crash. Boeing has
lost about $40 billion in market value in recent weeks.
“You had inconsistent signals coming from the Department of
Transportation, the F.A.A. and the N.T.S.B.,” said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld,
a leadership professor at the Yale School of Management. “There was no
one commanding voice of authority.”
Meanwhile, the story quickly transcended Washington. Consumers
scheduled to fly on 737 Maxes requested to switch planes. The travel
website Kayak added a feature that allowed shoppers to sort flights by
plane type.
“Boeing responded as a business-to-business company, but this has
become a business-to-consumer issue,” Mr. Levick said. “Consumers now
care about what plane they are on.”
Boeing has traditionally relied on in-house employees, rather than
public-affairs consultants, to manage periods of intense public
scrutiny. But after that hectic week following the Ethiopia crash,
Boeing turned to Sard Verbinnen, a crisis communications firm based in
New York that it kept on retainer, for assistance. What followed was a
more assertive posture by Boeing.
On March 18, Mr. Muilenburg released a statement and video expressing
regret for the crashes and emphasizing Boeing’s commitment to safety.
Days later, Boeing took out full-page advertisements in newspapers
including The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street
Journal. Sard Verbinnen declined to comment.
“As the pilots of the aircraft, we need more direct interaction with
Boeing going forward,” he said. “This needs to be the start of an
ongoing relationship.”

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@Boeing 737 MAX-8, @FlyEthiopian Boeing have taken a big hit but more worryingly the corporate's reactions to a fast moving situation were a D-.
International Trade

The lack of touch and finesse displayed by Boeing over the last seven
days is mind-boggling.
They have stayed resolutely behind the curve from the GET-Go.
The Message Boeing sent was the Safety came second, a simply untenable
position. Eventually the FAA capitulated and grounded the 737 Max.

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@Boeing 737 MAX-8, @FlyEthiopian 302, the FAA
International Trade

✈ #Airbus just sealed a $35 billion, 300-aircraft deal from #China
during President Xi Jinping's visit to #France #习近平 #法国


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A few facts on the coffee biz: -2.8bn+ cups of coffee consumed daily -Global coffee business is worth $50- $100bn @surambaya

-Farmers receive Sh20 per coffee cup vs. Sh60 in 1983
-Avg Kenyan farmer earns  ~$100/yr
-German & Swiss Co.s trade 50% of all coffee

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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President Felix Tshisekedi will visit Washington from April 3-5 in the first official trip by a leader of the vast, resource-rich nation to the United States in five years

The State Department said Tshisekedi would meet Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo but did not announce a summit with President Donald Trump,
who under ordinary protocol would receive a visiting head of state.
"We share President Tshisekedi's interest in developing a strong
partnership between the United States and the Democratic Republic of
the Congo," State Department spokesman Robert Palladino told
"We're committed to working with him to advance his agenda to combat
corruption, strengthen the rule of law, enhance security, protect
human rights and promote economic growth through increased foreign
investments and trade," he said.
Tshisekedi was declared the victor of delayed December 30 elections,
marking the first peaceful transfer of power in sub-Saharan Africa's
most vast country since independence from Belgium in 1960.
The election was nonetheless marred by allegations of widespread
fraud, with rival Martin Fayulu saying the election was stolen. But
international powers rallied behind Tshisekedi after a court confirmed
his victory in hopes of preserving stability.
In early actions seen favorably in the West, Tshisekedi has blocked
newly elected senators from taking office over corruption and has
moved to repair long-turbulent relations with Rwanda.
Despite supporting Tshisekedi, the United States has imposed sanctions
on key players in the vote including the election chief and the
country's top judge on charges of undermining democracy.

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07-JAN-2019 :: In one interview he alluded to Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous quote "I'll be back."

V.S. Naipaul, in A Bend in the River wrote “It isn’t that there’s no
right and wrong here. There’s no right.”

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Mr Wu is one of hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens - a common estimate is about 1m - who have ventured to Africa over the past two decades to seek their fortune @FT.

Like many who have ended up there, he sees in Africa’s raw energy and
ambition an echo of the forces that were unleashed by Deng Xiaoping’s
reforms of 1978.
Wilson Wu has big plans for the free trade zone he manages in Igbesa,
a scruffy town in Ogun State, some 60km from the frenzy of Lagos,
Nigeria’s huge commercial capital.
Casting his gaze over what is today a small cluster of industrial
warehouses surrounded by mud roads and bush, Mr Wu can see an
altogether brighter future. “We will have a five-star hotel, a golf
club, a Walmart,” he says in a well-rehearsed pitch. “It will be like
“It is like the China of the 1970s and 1980s when you could open a
business and maybe earn a fortune,” he enthuses. “Those kind of
fortunes are not possible in China today.”
Between 2000 and 2014, the stock of Chinese investment in Africa went
from 2 per cent of US levels to 55 per cent. McKinsey estimates that,
at the current breakneck pace, China will surpass US levels within a
Yet large companies such as Huawei, and big state-affiliated
companies, such as China Bridge and Road, are not the only Chinese
actors reshaping the continent. What officials in Washington may not
fully understand is that thousands of hardscrabble entrepreneurs like
Mr Wu, involved in everything from retail and factories to farming,
are having just as big an impact.
Irene Yuan Sun, an associate partner at McKinsey and author of a book
on Chinese investment in Africa, says the influence is particularly
strong in manufacturing.
“Chinese manufacturing investment is the best hope that Africa has to
industrialise in this generation,” she says. “Chinese involvement in
Africa is not just about state-driven efforts. A just as large, if not
larger, component is these private enterprises, which are more job
intensive, which localise quicker, and which have a much larger
economic and social impact.”
“Nigeria has the conditions to be a factory of the world,” says Zhou
Pingjian, China’s ambassador to Nigeria. “It should become the factory
of the world.”
Manufacturing made up just 9 per cent of gross domestic product in
2017, according to the World Bank, and President Muhammadu Buhari —
who was re-elected in February — has complained that Nigeria imports
everything from toothpicks to tomato purée.
Like other countries in Africa, Nigeria’s manufacturing ecosystem has
withered since the 1980s, partly thanks to a poorly executed
industrial policy that saw the state lavish billions on white elephant
projects. An irony of Chinese entrepreneurs setting up factories in
the country — and in other parts of Africa, such as Ethiopia and
Rwanda — is that the import of cheap Chinese goods was another factor
in destroying local production. Nigeria has also been hit by the oil
exporter curse, which pushed up the exchange rate, making it cheaper
to import finished goods than produce them. The country’s once
thriving textile industry is today a pale shadow of itself.
To get hold of foreign exchange, Chinese entrepreneurs have had to get
creative. Many say they buy Nigerian raw materials, such as timber and
marble, which they then export to buyers in China or Europe in
exchange for Chinese renminbi. Rings of Chinese money-changers
specialise in matching those needing foreign currency with willing
Chinese buyers of Nigerian imports.
“Once the ship leaves port and has its papers signed by the port
authorities, you can collect your money,” says Ban Yushi, manager of a
Beijing-based mining company.
Chinese businessmen also have to negotiate past Nigeria’s bureaucratic
gatekeepers for permits and licences. “To visit a government official
here, you best have around $6,000 to $10,000 with you,” says Mr Ban,
the miner. “Otherwise, forget about getting an appointment.”
Life has been hard in Nigeria too. “We import most of our food and
cook for our Chinese employees,” he says. On the weekends, Mr Peng
organises company outings for his mostly male employees to the
supermarket or to Lagos’ only Chinese-style karaoke bar.
Like many arrivals, Mr Peng has had to battle. “We had to clear all
the trees, drill our water wells, rig our own electrical transmission
lines,” he says. “When I first came here, we had to light candles
after 4pm because there was no stable electricity. We could not sleep
because of the heat, so we would sleep outside in the courtyard.”
Chinese views about their host communities can be blunt. “Nigeria has
the most thieves in the world,” says Thomas Liu, who runs the medicine
company where Mr Peng works, using the sort of uncompromising language
that grates from Accra to Kinshasa. “You have to avoid being tricked.”
Yet despite their myriad complaints, they say fortunes beckon. “If I
could give advice to my former self, it would be ‘move faster,’” says
Kent Chan, the manager of Grand Shine Construction Materials. He set
up his first factory in Nigeria in 2015. “I actually wanted to come in
2014 but then Ebola broke out. If I had come that year, I think
business would be have been even better.”
The influx is by no means limited to Nigeria. McKinsey estimates there
are more than 10,000 Chinese businesses operating in Africa, 90 per
cent of them privately owned.
Drawing on the “flying geese” concept of Japanese economist Kaname
Akamatsu, researchers at the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns
Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies argue that, as costs
in China rise, manufacturing will gradually shift to regions like
Africa. Between 2000 and 2015, Chinese companies registered more than
1,000 African manufacturing proposals with the commerce ministry in
glass, recycled steel, ceramics, gypsum board, textiles, dying,
tanneries and shoe factories to name but a few.
Chinese companies, including garment makers in Tanzania and Lesotho,
relocated not only because of cheaper labour costs. They were also
drawn by the prospect of tariff free exports to the US under the
African Growth and Opportunity Act, and to the EU under the Everything
But Arms agreement. In Ethiopia, Huajian from China and New Wing from
Hong Kong were attracted by the country’s high-grade leather, the
researchers at SAIS found.
Once companies gain a foothold in one country, many seek to expand.
New South Group aims to open 10 industrial zones like the one in Ogun
State across Africa, starting with a 700- acre facility near the
Kenyan city of Eldoret that began business in February. It plans to
open in Ghana and Angola, where, as in Nigeria, reliance on oil
exports has devastated local manufacturing.
In Nigeria, as in much of Africa, Chinese investment provokes
suspicion as well as praise, but for the most part, officials welcome
the attention. Jonathan Coker, Nigeria’s former ambassador to Beijing,
says western warnings about Chinese investments are hypocritical.
Diplomats say we will become slaves of China. This is the propaganda
of the west,” he says. Instead, he adds, Nigeria has much to learn.
“China is 10 times the size of Nigeria’s population but they have
developed a system that can take care of their people. These are the
examples we want to adapt.”
Not all Chinese entrepreneurs have a positive impact. In Madagascar,
they are blamed for illegal exports of rosewood and zebu, a type of
cattle. Chinese demand for African wildlife also fuels poaching from
Zambia to Mozambique.
Nor does Ms Sun see the arrival of Chinese entrepreneurs as a magic
bullet. The author accepts that, along with the promise of factories
and jobs, they may bring environmental degradation and friction with
African communities.
“But they are extremely entrepreneurial and they are doing profoundly
important things,” she says. “Not all good, not all bad. But we have
to pay attention.”

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +6.47% 2019
Kenyan Economy

Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.61 [importing contagion  adding to the mix]


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.326


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.91% 2019


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.49% 2019


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How do we get a billion dollar portfolio allocated to Africa?" @alykhansatchu @AlibabaGroup's Jack Ma said I have seen

•       Ideas
•       Fast Internet Speed
•       Passion for Future
"But what is most important Infrastructure of them all? Its Internet
and yours is fast"

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Kenya Holds Rate at 2015 Low for Fourth Meeting as CPI Anchored @economics
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for a fourth
consecutive meeting as inflation remained well anchored within the
target range and the economy operates “close to its potential.”
The Monetary Policy Committee held the rate at 9 percent, Governor
Patrick Njoroge said in an emailed statement Wednesday from the
capital, Nairobi. That matched the forecast of all eight economists in
a Bloomberg survey.
After unexpectedly easing policy in July, the MPC is now watching the
potential inflationary impact of a drought that’s left more than a
million people in need of food aid. A previous dry spell in 2016 and
2017 pushed price growth above authorities’ target band of 2.5 percent
to 7.5 percent as food costs surged.
Inflation, which slowed to 4.1 percent in February, will probably
remain within the target range in the near term because food supplies
remain adequate despite the drought, the MPC said.
The MPC’s private-sector market-perception survey conducted in March
indicated that inflation expectations remained well anchored within
the target range, with respondents lowering expectations for the near
term further because of stable food prices and lower electricity
costs, it said.
The implementation of a court ruling this month that annulled a law
limiting what lenders can charge consumers was suspended for a year.
That means interest-rate caps stay in place for now and because this
weighs on lenders’ willingness to extend credit, it limits the scope
for monetary policy to boost economic growth.

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Private sector credit grew by 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2019, compared to 3% in January 2019. @MihrThakar
Kenyan Economy

anaemic. Worth noting that the last 4 months of 2018 did not
experience any private sector credit growth.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 100.75
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.30% 2019


@NSE_PLC Leader Board in 2019 #Frontier #Africa  H/T @RichFrontiers


@NSE_PLC Laggards Board in 2019 #Frontier #Africa  H/T @RichFrontiers


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@totalkenya reports FY 2018 EPS -15.632% Earnings here @Total
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           29.90
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        5,233,358,309
EPS:               3.67
PE:                8.1471

Leading multinational energy company.

Total Kenya PLC FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs. 31st
December 2017
FY Gross sales 136.678235b vs. 137.096919b -0.305%
FY Indirect taxes and duties [28.765461b] vs. [25.673365b] +12.044%
FY Net sales 107.912774b vs. 111.423554b -3.151%
FY Cost of sales [99.560337b] vs. [103.171526b] -3.500%
FY Gross profit 8.352437b vs. 8.252028b +1.217%
FY Other income 955.564m vs. 1.094244b -12.674%
FY Operating expenses [5.837862b] vs. [5.410544b] +7.898%
FY Finance income 245.202m vs. 328.054m -25.256%
FY Finance costs [115.550m] vs. [54.520m] +111.941%
FY Net foreign exchange loss [1.267m] vs. [77.446m] -98.364%
FY Profit before tax 3.598524b vs. 4.131816b -12.907%
FY Profit for the year 2.312582b vs. 2.738216b -15.911%
Basic and diluted EPS 3.67 vs. 4.35 -15.632%
Dividend per share 1.30 vs. 1.30 –
Total Assets 39.258921b vs. 38.012115b +3.280%
Total Equity 22.666043b vs. 21.417219b +5.831%
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st December 6.699178b vs.
[2.349724b] +385.105%

The Company recorded an Increase in gross margins to KShs 8.35 billion
(2017: KShs 8.25 billion) mainly driven by increased sales in Retail
and Consumer segments by 6%. Overall sales volumes excluding bulk
sales (OTS) increased by 2%.
Other income decreased to KShs 956 million (2017: KShs 1,094 million)
as a consequence of the decrease in surplus asset disposal income of
KShs. 167 million in 2017.
Operating expenses increased by 8% due to increased depreciation on
property, plant and equipment emanating from investments in the
Network and Depots and inflation impact, though controlled by
effective cost management.
The Company continues to enjoy finance income which in 2018, amounted
to KShs 130 million (2017, KShs 274 million) after netting off
interest paid in USD. This is the result of positive cash position in
Kenya shillings arising from effective management of working capital.
The foreign exchange loss decreased significantly in the year and
amounted to KShs 1.27 million (2017: KS. 77.45 million) thanks to the
stability of the Kenya shilling against the US Dollar.
Total Kenya's profit for the year ended 31 December 2018 recorded a
drop of 16% mainly resulting from the effect of a volatile
international prices of finished products (platts) negatively
impacting margins in the price regulated segment.
The Company's statement of financial position remained strong with a
growth in assets by 3% from KShs 38.01 billion in 2017 to KShs 39.26
billion in 2018.
Investments level continues to remain strong and in 2018 it amounted
to KShs 2.01 billion (2017: KShs 2.27 billion) in line with the
business strategy to enhance safety standards in our operations and
continue to develop profitable business lines.
In line with the long-term strategy of the Company and to capture
growth opportunities in the Kenyan and regional markets, the Company
will continue to invest in safety of our operations, logistics and
commercial activities.
The Board is confident that the Company is well positioned to register
positive performance in all the business segments, while capitalising
on the continued economic growth and stability of the local currency
and of the oil prices.
The Directors recommend the payment of a first and final dividend of
KShs 1.30 per share for the year ended 31 December 2018, the same
level as in 2017, subject to the shareholders' approval at the 65th
Annual General Meeting.
If approved, the dividend will be paid on or around 22nd July 2019.
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING The 65th Annual General Meeting of Total Kenya
Plc will be held on 26 June 2019.
Subject to shareholders' approval at the Annual General Meeting, the
share register will be closed for one day at the close of business on
26th June 2019 for the purpose of dividend calculation.
By order of the Board
Mr Olagoke Aluko - Managing Director
March 26, 2019


Its an interesting prospect.
Interesting that Retail and consumer segment [i.e Forecourt] posted a
meaningful Year on Year Gain.
Dividend 4.34%
Thinly traded share and its a Buy around 25.00.

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Kapchorua Tea share price data
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           69.25
Total Shares Issued:          7824000.00
Market Capitalization:        541,812,000
EPS:             21.27
PE:                 3.256

Kapchorua Tea Kenya PLC H1 2019 results through 30th September 2018
vs. 30th September 2017

H1 Turnover 724.020m vs. 562.888m +28.626%
H1 [Loss] from operations before tax [44.463m] vs. [35.164m] -26.445%
H1 [Decrease]/ increase in fair value of biological assets [57.949m]
vs. 10.466m -653.688%
H1 Finance [costs]/ income [6.844m] vs. 3.920m -274.592%
H1 Loss before taxation [109.256m] vs. [20.778m] -425.825%
H1 Loss for the period [76.479m] vs. [14.545m] -425.810%
H1 Loss per share [9.77] vs. [1.86] -425.269%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2019

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