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Tuesday 02nd of April 2019 |
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US, Israel punish Turkey's Erdogan @BhadraPunchline Law & Politics |
“Turkey is a global “swing state.” It has a large and growing economy, a strategic location, a democratic government, and mixed views about prevailing international arrangements. Like the other three global swing states — Brazil, India, and Indonesia — Turkey’s choices will influence whether today’s international order evolves and endures or fragments and fails.”
The above passage is reproduced from a policy brief titled Turkey: A Global Swing State by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the American think tank. Indeed, from the US perspective, several fault lines in regional politics are affected by Turkish policies. At least half a dozen major templates can be readily identified: Syrian conflict, Kurdish autonomy, Palestinian problem and Israel’s security, US sanctions against Russia and Iran, Turkey’s entente with Russia, Qatar, Iran, etc., NATO presence in the Black Sea and Mediterranean and the alliance’s base in Incirlik and so on. It is no big secret that the US and its European allies and Israel view Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s regional policies with growing disquiet. Erdogan’s independent foreign policies weaken western regional strategies and his support for Hamas (and his visceral dislike of Netanyahu) isolates Israel in the region. On the other hand, the US’ containment strategies against Russia and Iran are undermined by Erdogan’s policies. The Turkish-Russian-Iranian troika created new facts on the ground in Syria and rendered untenable the US military presence in Syria. Turkey frontally challenges the US’ alliance with Syrian Kurds. The deepening Turkish-Russian partnership challenges the cohesion of NATO. The so-called Middle Eastern Entente between Turkey, Qatar and Iran creates much-needed strategic depth for Tehran. Suffice to say, Erdogan has become a thorn in the flesh for the US and Israel. All this goes to explain the unusually high level of western interest in Turkey’s local elections, which concluded on Sunday. The big question is how far the election results affect Erdogan’s hold on power. Put differently, do the election results show any signs of this charismatic politician losing his grip? The turnout of voters has been appreciably high — 84.67%. Overall, AK Party (Erdogan’s party) and its ultra-nationalist ally MHP (under the banner People’s Alliance) polled 51.62% votes as against the secular ‘Kemalist’ and liberal opposition (known as National Alliance) which secured 37.56% votes. The AKP is leading the race securing 16 metropolitan municipalities (out of 30) and taken control of 24 cities, with the main opposition winning in 10 municipalities. But the opposition has wrested control of Ankara and may have scraped through in Istanbul, the country’s main centre of business and industry.
On the whole, there has been no significant shift in the established pattern of social and political polarisation — the southern (Mediterranean) and western (Aegean) provinces supporting the opposition parties with liberal, ‘westernist’, secular outlook, while the Islamist AK Party retains its vast power base in the deeply conservative Anatolian heartland.
Simply put, the AK Party emerges as the winner for the 15th consecutive election under Erdogan’s stewardship. Erdogan said in an address to the nation, “There will be no elections for four and a half years. What will we do? We will focus on national and international issues, and hopefully raise our country above the level of our contemporaries.” Erdogan prioritised the strengthening of the economy, development and job creation.
A pall of gloom would have descended on the western capitals as the realisation sinks in that Erdogan will be around as Turkey’s helmsman for the foreseeable future. Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections are due only in 2023. It is a sign of the times that Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned Erdogan on Monday to congratulate him. Erdogan is due to travel to Russia next week to co-chair with Putin the eighth meeting of the High-Level Russian-Turkish Cooperation Council scheduled for April 8 in Moscow. Erdogan’s meeting with Putin will be crucial as both sides are conscious that stormy days lie ahead in Turkish-American relations. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is due to travel to the US even as Washington is ratcheting up pressure on Ankara to pull out of the S-400 missile deal with Russia and to comply with the US sanctions on Iran.
Things may come to a head between the two NATO allies in the coming weeks since Russia is due to deliver to Turkey in July the first batch of the missile system. Turkey is buying four batteries of the S-400 air defence system for $2.5 billion. On Thursday, a bipartisan bill was introduced in the US senate to block the transfer of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey unless Ankara scrapped the S-400 deal. The US is also reportedly considering removing Ankara from the joint production program on F-35s. But the Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu reiterated on Friday that Ankara will go ahead with the missile deal with Russia. He scotched the rumours that Ankara might resell the missiles to a third country.
More importantly, last Tuesday, the US introduced sanctions on 25 individuals and firms on grounds of violation of sanctions on Iran, including firms and persons based in Turkey. On Wednesday, Sigal Mandelker, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence in the US Treasury, called on Turkey to strictly observe the sanctions against Iran. Without doubt, the Israeli lobby in Washington is pulling all stops to punish Erdogan. His support for Iran and Hamas infuriate Israel. Erdogan said last week that Turkey will never accept Israel’s illegal occupation of Golan Heights and intends to raise the issue in the UN. The US media which is heavily under Jewish influence has been harshly critical of Erdogan. Sunday’s election results are being displayed as ‘setback’ for Erdogan. Given the Jewish influence on Wall Street, the game plan would be to create difficulties for the Turkish economy so that mass discontent rises and threatened Erdogan’s popularity.
At such a sensitive juncture when an escalation of tension in ties between Ankara and Washington looks possible in the days ahead and Turkey is hard-pressed to strike a balance between the US and Moscow, the results of the local elections on Sunday would relieve the pressure on Erdogan. But the loss of control of Ankara and Istanbul creates new headaches.
The head of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Devlet Bahçeli, ally and coalition partner of Erdogan, said on Monday that “external forces seeking to implement shady machinations over Turkey have failed” in the local elections. Bahceli said that the “economic hitmen, currency gangs, terrorist groups and intentions” lost hope thanks to the will of the nation and “got the answer they deserved.”
However, looking ahead, Bahceli added, “Elections are now past and Turkey has replenished its hope. It is of crucial importance to focus on worsening social and economic issues along with international challenges.”
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KIEV, Ukraine - A Ukrainian comedian who plays an accidental president on television delivered a walloping rebuke to the country's political class in the presidential election on Sunday by emerging first @nytimes Law & Politics |
The comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, 41, captured more than 30 percent of the vote, according to two authoritative exit polls. It was a strong showing by a maverick with no political experience, though far below the 50 percent needed to win the first round outright. If exit polls translate into real votes, Mr. Zelensky will face President Petro O. Poroshenko, who emerged second with around 18 percent, in a runoff in three weeks, on April 21. Yulia V. Tymoshenko, a former prime minister making her third bid for the presidency, was third with about 13 percent. After the polls closed, Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Poroshenko lost no time in attacking each other. “I want to thank all Ukrainians who voted today not just for kicks,” said Mr. Zelensky, taking a dig at Mr. Poroshenko for saying the incumbent alone should be taken seriously. “This is only the first step toward a great victory.” Mr. Poroshenko said that the time for jokes was over and that Mr. Zelensky would make just the kind of weak president sought by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the bogeyman of Ukrainian politics. “He dreams of a soft, submissive, gentle, giggling, inexperienced, weak, ideologically amorphous and politically uncertain president,” Mr. Poroshenko said. “Will we gift him this?” Mr. Poroshenko, a chocolate tycoon who is among the richest men in a country dominated by oligarchs, appeared to offer a tacit admission that younger voters had abandoned him in droves. He said he had heard — and understood — their desire for a faster pace of change. It was a stunning result in an election that will help to determine the future of a country that has become the European front line in a new era of confrontation between Russia and the West. The grinding war it has spawned has left 13,000 dead and displaced millions since 2014. “He is the only candidate who is not contaminated with our politics,” he said. “That is why he is the only candidate for me.” Ukrainians seem more fed up than ever. A mere 9 percent say they have confidence in the government, and 91 percent see it as corrupt, according to a Gallup poll conducted in March. That gave rise to Mr. Zelensky, who has blurred the lines between his television character and his candidacy. His show, “The Servant of the People,” became the name of his party. Many voters say they feel as if they know him after watching him on television for years, similar to what many Americans say about President Trump.
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01-APR-2019 :: World's End Law & Politics |
“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born” ― Antonio Gramsci,
There is certainly a Fin de siècle even apocalyptic mood afoot. The conundrum for those who wish to bet on the End of the World is this, however. What would be the point? The World would have ended.
I learnt that in the last 44 years, we have achieved what we haven’t in all this while: a mass annihilation of our fellow earthlings. Between 1970 and 2014, Earth lost nearly 60% decline of its mammals, birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians, almost all of it due to human activity. What with the biblical Cyclone in Mozambique, its all too easy to think like Pompeo that the moment of ''rapture'' might well be upon us.
WB Yeats' The Second Coming
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
"I was the most innocent human being" President Trump told Sean Hannity. And the entire Claque [Wikileaks, Greenwald et al] did a Hamlet,
“The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”
Over in the United Kingdom The Brexit Story continues to play out longer than the longest Oresteia [The Oresteia (Ancient Greek: Ὀρέστεια) is a trilogy of Greek tragedies written by Aeschylus] and I have watched the play and its long. Mrs. Theresa May who has been previously characterised as a Bot, brought her May Deal for the third time only for it be rejected again. She is proposing to bring it a 4th time next week. Sterling re-tested the 1.3000 level. There are two schools of thought. The Majority View is that we have had an eternity to price everything into the Pound and all the bad news is baked into the price now and therefore this is a Yazz Moment and ''The only way is up'' The minority position about 20% versus 80% is saying there is a chance that what is soft will become hard [Brexit] and brittle and therefore, there is a risk the whole edifice will come crashing down and career off course. The Theatre of the UK Parliament is I am ashamed to admit rather more interesting than was the Oresteia. Further afield, The Head of the Army in Algeria is trying to remove President Bouteflika the wheelchair-chair bound who might be remembered in the history books as Bouteflika the Sticky. Article 102 of Algeria's constitution allows the constitutional council to declare the presidency vacant if the incumbent is too ill to exercise his functions, then ask parliament to declare him unfit. In Africa, in particular, a lot of Leadership is in the departure Lounge but Bouteflika is surely the most extreme example.
@SunChartist whom I follow on Twitter said this
The premise of ZIRP / NIRP was always these are temporary measures for atrial fibrillation of the economy. 10 years later same medicine in ever larger dosage to keep the patient alive. The definition of [a] vegetative state.
The Bond market is surely in a vegetative state. The Market Value of Global Negative Yielding Bonds rose +$518 Billion Thursday to $10.42 Trillion and is just $1.75 Trillion away from a record high. Japan and Germany account for 64% of Negative Yielding bonds. It is worth pointing out that Germany and Japan are being paid to borrow money. TThe Central Bankers flipped and administhis level of dissonance in the bond market is unprecedented. Just about everything rallied in Q1. Following on from an Annus Horribilis in 2018 [where 93% of assets declined in value], Q1 2019 was a Quarter mirabilis. Central Banks administered huge doses of drugs. Just about everything from Crude Oil [+31% in Q1] to Frontier market Debt [Kenya +10%]. has been pumped up. This cannot last notwithstanding the fact that somehow its been going on a for a decade. Eventually this zombification will end and only the debris will be left.
The latest Signal of Stress is being emitted by Turkey where Erdogan pronounced 'I'm in charge,' the day after the overnight rate clocked an eye-popping 1,336%. He added that Turkey had thwarted “attacks” by the United States and the West on the lira and he accused some banks of playing games with the currency ahead of Sunday’s vote.
“They can’t find lira now, they are struggling in terms of payments. The tables have turned. While they can’t do this, the lira firms and the dollar falls,” Erdogan said. His [lack of analysis] of the situation is his Achilles heel.
President Erdogan will learn what Norman Lamont learned and the Turkish Lira is teetering at the precipice. Now if the Lira crashes [which looks very likely], the Infection will spread out of Istanbul. We could see a major wobble, a Flight to Quality and in that environment you might well want to own some Yen.
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@GoldmanSachs Sees a 'Big Finish' for Brexit, Opportunity in the Pound @markets International Trade |
“We’re coming to a big finish here,” Zach Pandl, Goldman’s co-head of global foreign exchange and emerging market strategy, said on Bloomberg Television after the U.K. Parliament again rejected all alternatives to Prime Minister Theresa May’s unloved deal to leave the European Union. “We do think we’re making progress despite these failed votes.” Instead of a prolonged stalemate or a chaotic no-deal scenario, Pandl said a soft Brexit approach, which may include a permanent customs union packaged with a second referendum, could come within the next day or two. “Sterling is maybe the biggest opportunity among developed market exchange rates today,” Pandl said. The pound was at $1.3066 as of 9:49 a.m. in Hong Kong, at the weaker end of its recent range.
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@Starbucks Has Brazil to Thank for Longest Coffee Rout Since 2001 @business Commodities |
News out of Brazil just keeps getting better for Starbucks Corp. and other buyers of smooth-tasting arabica-coffee beans. Favorable weather and currency weakness in the South American country are behind a sixth straight quarterly decline in arabica prices. In fact, coffee futures are posting a string of superlatives. The run of quarterly losses is the longest since late 2001 The quarterly average price is the lowest since 2005, and the lowest in 15 years for a first quarter A more than 7 percent drop this year is the worst performance among major soft commodities tracked by Bloomberg The world’s biggest coffee-shop company has abundant rains to thank for cheaper prices. The beneficial weather is boosting prospects for the next harvests in top supplier Brazil. In addition, waning optimism that the government will be able to push through market-friendly legislation is taking its toll on Brazil’s currency, giving exporters more incentive to ship beans.
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America would run out of avocados in three weeks if President Trump shut down the US-Mexico border, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture. @NBCNews Commodities |
President Donald Trump's threat to shut down the U.S.-Mexico border would hit American consumers — in the gut. From avocado toast to margaritas, the United States is heavily reliant on Mexican imports of fruit, vegetables and alcohol to meet consumer demand. Nearly half of all imported U.S. vegetables and 40 percent of imported fruit are grown in Mexico, according to the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture. Americans would run out of avocados in three weeks if imports from Mexico were stopped, said Steve Barnard, president and chief executive of Mission Produce, the largest distributor and grower of avocados in the world. ''You couldn't pick a worse time of year because Mexico supplies virtually 100 percent of the avocados in the U.S. right now. California is just starting and they have a very small crop, but they're not relevant right now and won't be for another month or so," said Barnard.
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Algeria's Embattled President to Resign Before End of Term @bpolitics Africa |
Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika said he will step down before his fourth term officially expires on April 28, bowing to weeks of mass protests that had threatened to tip the OPEC exporter into turmoil. Citing a statement from the presidency, the official APS news agency said the transitional period would begin with the departure of the ailing leader, who would take ”important steps to ensure continuity in the functioning of state institutions” during those changes. The announcement comes as Bouteflika faces hundreds of thousands of demonstrators demanding he end his 20-year rule over the North African country. Protesters had been joined in recent weeks by unions and political parties. The tide turned against Bouteflika last week when his long-time ally, army chief of staff Ahmed Gaid Salah, said it was time to invoke a constitutional article that could see the 82-year-old declared unfit for office. “This looks like it was effectively the outcome of a compromise between the army and the Bouteflika faction after the statement by the chief of staff,” said Riccardo Fabiani, senior analyst on geopolitics for Energy Aspects. “It was clear that he couldn’t stay in power for long.” The drama unfolding in Algeria is being closely watched across the Mediterranean. Under Bouteflika, Europe’s third-largest gas supplier has been a bulwark against Islamist militancy and illegal migration from other parts of Africa. Unrest in Algeria could be felt beyond its borders. The upheaval began when Bouteflika, incapacitated by a stroke in 2013 and rarely seen in public, announced a bid to run for a fifth term in office in the face of popular opposition. He quickly backtracked on his re-election plan but pledged to stay in office to shepherd the country through a transition that would include drafting a new constitution. His proposal was swiftly rejected on the streets, where protesters began to call for the removal of the entire political elite that has ruled the country for decades. Fabiani said that the latest arrangement was “all part of their script.” “The script is always the same. The regime, even though it’s divided internally, doesn’t want to let go of power,” he said. “They’re open to the transition, but only on their terms.” It was not clear who would replace Bouteflika pending new elections or when that vote could be held. Originally planned for April 18, Bouteflika, in announcing he wouldn’t seek a new term, scrapped the presidential vote as part of what he said was a broader plan to reshape the country, enact a transitional phase and draft a new charter. Under the constitution, the president of the senate takes over in the interim. The statement from the presidency said that the appointment of a new government on Sunday would be followed by other decisions to ensure the continuity of state institutions. The announcement capped a day of tumult in the oil exporter, with authorities moving against several influential businessmen by launching corruption investigations and banning them from travel, the APS news agency reported. Among the men were three seen as particularly close to Bouteflika. The investigations appeared to be a response by authorities to protester demands for a crackdown on the business elite that’s seen as key to Bouteflika’s survival. They, along with military officials and some members of the ruling FLN, are among “le pouvoir” -- a loosely-defined group seen as the backbone of the ruling regime.
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Sudan's Bid to Feed the Middle East Left Its Own People Furious @BW Africa |
When the Jordanian army went shopping for land in northern Sudan in late 1999, its scouts came across what appeared to be a food-growing paradise. The terrain was vast, flat, and fat with nutrients. The water it could draw from the nearby Nile was almost embarrassingly bountiful. And local officials were bending over backward to offer favorable financial terms. It all seemed like a can’t-miss opportunity to supplement Jordan’s national food supply while turning a tidy profit. The military pension fund snapped up 9,000 acres of backcountry scrub three hours’ drive north of Khartoum, and the farmhands got to work.
Soon afterward, as news of potential riches spread, the surrounding land began filling up. A Pakistani company leased a large plot to the south. Syrians began farming to the north. Emiratis, Lebanese, Yemenis, and others acquired 100,000-plus acres apiece. The main north-south highway that runs alongside Al-Bashaer, the Jordanian farm, grew clogged with tractor-trailers carrying hay bales that would become fodder across the Red Sea. “There’s good soil, enough water, sunshine, everything you need to grow a lot of crops,” says Abdelazim al-Jak, a Khartoum native who now manages the farm. “It shouldn’t be a surprise that everyone wants it.”
The mad dash has only accelerated in recent years, as Sudanese authorities, desperate for revenue, have resurrected the country’s long-standing dream of becoming an agricultural superpower. Since losing access to most of the country’s oil revenue with the secession of South Sudan in 2011, they’ve been trying to parcel out land to cash-rich, food-poor investors. In 2016 the Saudi government leased 1 million arable acres in the east of the country. Not long after, Bahrain leased 100,000 acres, a plot almost as large as Bahrain itself.
By the time villages across Sudan’s River Nile and Northern states had awoken to the full scale of foreign land acquisitions, even nonfood producers such as Jordan’s Sayegh Group, the Middle East’s biggest paint producer, were muscling in. “You could walk hundreds of kilometers without stepping on Sudanese-owned land,” says Khaled Khairallah, a livestock herder in Wad al-Habashi, a village to the south and across the river from Al-Bashaer. “What is left for us?”
Arab policymakers have been touting Sudan’s ability to feed the populous and water-scarce Middle East since the 1970s. The country features as much as 200 million acres of arable land, a strategic location less than a day’s sail across the Red Sea to the Saudi port of Jeddah, and a roughly 25 percent share of the Nile’s waters under regional agreements, much of it unused.
The pressure on companies to make things work is intense—Saudi businesses such as Almarai, Al Safi Danone, and Nadec, for example, are contending with a ban at home on animal-fodder cultivation, forced on them in November in response to depleted groundwater reserves. They need to get their alfalfa, an extremely water-intensive crop, somewhere. But despite the success certain foreign farms have had growing it in Sudan, they’ve been slow to expand their smallish existing operations. “We absolutely look at Sudan as the answer to our problems. It’s 350 kilometers away. It should make economic sense,” said a senior Saudi dairy executive. “But that infrastructure, that government ... a lot still needs to change.”
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@Mastercard to Join Investors in Africa Online Retailer #Jumia @technology Africa |
Jumia Technologies AG said Mastercard Inc. has agreed to invest 50 million euros ($56 million) in a private placement ahead of the Africa-focused online retailer’s planned initial public offering in New York. The U.S. credit-card giant joins shareholders such as French drinks maker Pernod Ricard SA, which bought a 5.1 percent stake for 75 million euros in December, and largest investors MTN Group Ltd. and Rocket Internet SE. The Pernod deal valued Jumia at about 1.4 billion euros, making the Amazon.com Inc.-like firm a rare African unicorn -- a private company valued at more than $1 billion. It is selling 13.5 million American Depository Shares at $13 to $16 each, according to a filing last week, which could raise as much as $216 million. The move by Mastercard increases the chances of a successful share sale for loss-making Jumia, which has about 4 million customers across 14 African countries. Founded by French entrepreneurs Sacha Poignonnec and Jeremy Hodara, the group is tapping into rising internet availability in Africa as well as a lack of desirable items such as designer watches and sunglasses. Mastercard also agreed to a new partnership to help Jumia grow its operations, Berlin-based Jumia said in an emailed statement on Monday. The U.S credit-card giant “has been rapidly expanding its presence and partnerships in Africa, bringing new technologies,” Elcin Yanik, a marketing executive at the Purchase, New York-based company, said in the same statement.
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@KenyaAirways Plc. is in discussions with @Airbus SE to acquire an unspecified number of planes but remains a "happy and loyal customer" of @Boeing Co., according to Chief Executive Officer @MikoszSebastian @business Kenyan Economy |
Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest carrier, which wants to add 50 airliners to its fleet over the next six years to ward off competition from the rest of Africa and the Middle East, is “seriously thinking” about Airbus’s medium-range A220, Mikosz said in an interview Tuesday in the Rwandan capital, Kigali. “If the producer offers us a good deal on the pricing and their delivery and training conditions, we will adopt,” he said. The long-haul A380, though, was out of the equation as it “never made a dime for anybody.” Besides the A220, the industry has “very limited alternatives” for narrow-body aircraft other than Boeing’s 737 Max, which was grounded after two deadly crashes in the last five months. “We are one of the potential customers for this aircraft,” Mikosz said of the 737 Max. “I’m not losing trust in them. I believe that once the corrections are done, we will have to conduct a very detailed and large communications exercise to explain what was wrong and what was corrected.” To finance acquisitions, the loss-making airline would consider various alternatives, including swapping or trading-in aircraft or entering into sale-and-lease arrangements, he said. Kenya Airways hopes to get clarity by the end of the year on its proposal to jointly manage the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in the capital, Nairobi, with the state-owned Kenya Airports Authority through a 30-year concession plan, Mikosz said. The venture could increase passenger traffic at the airport by more than half in under five years, according to the proposal. “What we are advocating is a massive systemic change” in the country’s civil aviation industry, he said. “The growth of the airline is essential as it accounts for 80 percent of the airport’s revenues annually.”
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Sellers withhold Sh590m tea as price hits 4-year low @BD_Africa Kenyan Economy |
About three million kilos of tea was pulled out of the auction last week as prices dipped further, forcing sellers to withhold their commodity. By the Sh196 average price per kilo at the auction, the tea could have fetched Sh588 million but was never sold. According to East African Tea Traders Association (Eatta), the volume offered for sale last week was 11.7 million kilos and only 8.5 million were sold. The Mombasa auction has been witnessing a streak of low prices since the beginning of the year in what has been attributed to high tea volumes.
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